Caleb McCarry Discussion with European Journalists at the Foreign Press Center

Caleb McCarry, Cuba Transition Coordinator
Briefing with European Journalists at the Foreign Press Center
Washington, DC
January 25, 2007

Mr. McCarry: First and foremost, thank you for taking the time on a winter afternoon and for your interest in Cuba.

My name is Caleb McCarry. In 2005 I was named to serve as the Coordinator of the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba which was created by President George W. Bush. The position was actually created as a result of the first report of the Commission, which was issued in 2004. The position essentially is to serve as the senior U.S. official responsible for coordinating U.S. efforts to support a democratic transition in Cuba.

I serve at the State Department. I'm in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs on a day-to-day basis. I report to the Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs.

The first task I had when I came on the job was to oversee a process of writing, actually, a second report of the Commission. The first report focused on steps and recommendations for the United States to take to help support a hastening of the day when there would be a democratic transition in Cuba. We also looked out broadly at the kinds of assistance the United States might provide for a freely elected government in Cuba. The second report deepened our efforts to reach out acnd support the Cuban people and also began a process of planning for assistance that we could offer to support a democratic transition in Cuba, and specifically to a Cuban transition government that would be committed to fundamental democratic changes in Cuba.

That report came out in July. It was briefed to the President of the United States and the National Security Council. As fate would have it, very shortly thereafter came the announcement of the temporary hand-off of power in Cuba. We've been engaged since and obviously are in the process of implementing that report including our planning for assistance that we can offer to support a genuine transition to democracy in Cuba.

My background, just very quickly so you know who I am: I grew up in Massachusetts, in New England; attended the University of Massachusetts, as my biography notes. I served for a number of years in a bipartisan organization called the Center for Democracy that worked to promote democracy in different parts of the world. I speak Spanish, so I gravitated to Latin America, particularly Central America.

After that I served for a number of years on the staff of the International Relations Committee in the United States House of Representatives, where I was privileged to serve two distinguished Chairmen, Ben Gillman from New York and Henry Hyde from Illinois; then was asked to join the Administration.

I welcome having the opportunity to talk with you, to hear your views, and to answer any questions as best I can.

Question: (Toby Harnden, The Daily Telegraph) The first obvious question is, what's the state of the health of Fidel Castro? We hear things coming out of Madrid and rumors from everywhere. Do you even know what his medical --

Mr. McCarry: It's impossible to tell. It certainly appears he's not well, but it's opaque to us. What, of course, is true is that he has not been seen in public for some time now.

Question: (Harden) Is there any policy or indication?

Mr. McCarry: I can't --

Question: What do you expect to happen on the day he dies?

Mr. McCarry: I can't predict what will happen. I think, curiously enough, I think something did happen in July, something rather important. Something did change in Cuba, actually, for the first time in decades. What's begun is a process in Cuba of change. It is a process that no one, including the current regime, can predict where it will lead.

Question: Can you elaborate a little bit? Where do you see this process taking place?

Mr. McCarry: I think it's taking place most importantly in the homes and in the minds of Cubans. People are afraid, of course. The government has stepped up oppression in Cuba. You're all familiar with the "actos de repudios," which take place, organized mob attacks on the opposition and independent civil society leaders. But at the same time there are indications that people are starting to speak a little more freely. Certainly the democratic opposition is continuing to put out its views on paths forward for a democratic future for their country.

There are things that are happening that suggest that Cuban civil society is reawakening. Particularly while there was a sharp decrease in independent activity in Cuba after the 2003 crackdown, there's actually been an increase across the island and particularly in the provinces, of independent activity. I'm talking about things like prayer vigils that people hold.

Now there even have been some incidents, if you read the independent Cuban press written by journalists, very brave individuals in Cuba, there have been incidents, for example, of neighbors coming out and defending their neighbors when they are being threatened by government or organized mobs.

Question: I guess you are going to step up your activities the day Castro dies. What will be your main thoughts within the Commission?

Mr. McCarry: Actually we've sustained and increased our activities in a number of areas already. I think the fundamental basis of our support is that it's an offer of support. We offer the support to Cubans. We do not impose it and cannot. It's an offer of independent information, of material support for Cuba's independent civil society. We have increased our efforts to get independent broadcasting to Cuba so there are sources of information outside of state-controlled media that is available to Cubans through a variety of means. And we've also been stepping up and will continue our efforts to advocate for the Cuban people and their right to define a democratic future for their country. This is something that we have done diplomatically and to encourage all countries, and particularly democratic countries, to acknowledge that support the right of Cubans to debate and find a different and democratic direction for their country.

Question: Have those members of the House who recently traveled to Cuba been in touch with the Commission before they traveled? And what's your position that they're trying to bring up initiatives within the House to alleviate the pressure put on Cuba? Again, it seems that there is not a common position of the U.S. towards Cuba, so what can you do and what's your position on that?

Mr. McCarry: I actually know some of those members, not all. They did not come to meet with the Commission prior to their trip.

This is a democracy we live in. There is a policy debate about any number of issues, including Cuba. Cuba is an issue that perhaps unlike others actually there is bipartisan engagement on, if you will, both sides of this issue.

Our position with respect to their proposals is that this is the time to maintain our policy and to continue to press for genuine changes in Cuba.

Question: That is your position.

Mr. McCarry: That's the position of the Administration.

Question: So basically you are still betting on something big happening on the day after? Suddenly Castro is out, the Cubans awake, democracy is on the way, that's how you see it?

Question: (Matthias Rueb - Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung) Can I jump on that? Because actually we are living already in the day after. That's it. That was, at least, my feeling when I was there in September covering the Non-Aligned Summit. That Cubans are living already in the post-Castro era, even though it's Raul now, but nothing has changed. If something has changed it's to the worst.

Do you still expect, and you mentioned that something changed already, but do you really expect a major change once Fidel is really out?

Mr. McCarry: No one, as I said, can predict what will happen.

I actually think that, as I said, there has been a change. There is a new dynamic in the country. And there's also something very important and the regime itself knows this. There is a substantial expectation that there will be change among Cubans. There's been no indication that the successor regime is prepared to make any real changes, but there is very much a substantial expectation among the Cubans that there will be.

Question: The congressmen who visited Cuba last month, one of them was there, if I'm not mistaken, Representative McGovern, and they basically have said there is no indication that there will be a kind of massive uprising or any changes in the political life of Cuba whatsoever. My understanding is you don't agree with that, right?

Mr. McCarry: The Congressman's entitled to his views, of course. What I'm saying is there is a desire for change in Cuba and that our view is that most Cubans want democratic change in their country.

Question: So Cuban society, right?

Mr. McCarry: And what's important is that there are actually Cubans inside Cuba who, I might add, at considerable risk to themselves are speaking out and talking about their plans, their ideas for a democratic future for their country.

Cuba has an opportunity for change and our message is simply that Cubans have that right. Ultimately the sovereign in Cuba, as in any country, is the Cuban people. Rather than have a government imposed upon them they should have the opportunity, as we do in our countries, to elect their government. But to get there they're going to need a process.

Question: So why don't [inaudible] a lot of [inaudible] criticize actually the toughening of the travel ban since '04 and so on. There is some division among the Cuban Americans about what should be done in terms of policies. A lot of them would like the administration to loosen them. Is that out of the question?

Mr. McCarry: Again, we live in a democracy. There are a number of different views on any given issue, including this one. What I can tell you is that the reason behind our policy is two-fold. On the one hand restrictions were tightened in order to reduce the resources that are flowing to the government of Cuba. These are resources that the government of Cuba uses ultimately to control and oppress the Cuban people. On the other hand, I will add that we actually do permit travel to Cuba including licensed travel which is aimed at encouraging contact that directly benefits Cubans. That directly puts people in touch with Cubans themselves to help them. But rather than going through the Cuban government.

Question: If I may follow up on this, $300 every three months to the close family only, this is tougher than the embargo applied to Burma. Does that make sense, really: two communities 90 miles away from one another?

Mr. McCarry: I would respond by saying that the balance we seek is to reduce the revenue that the regime takes in while at the same time permitting people to support their families.

You have to understand in the context of Cuba that the Cuban government controls everything including the banks. They charge an exorbitant fee for the exchange of U.S. dollars. The entire system is set up to draw hard currency into the government's coffers and to maintain a state security apparatus that some people from parts of Europe that lived under communism tell me is worse than they experienced.

Question: I maybe have a question concerning the home front, so to speak. There was a drill recently in Miami, what would happen the day Castro dies. The Coast Guard I think practiced how to stop Cuban exiles jumping on their speedboats and driving to Cuba. Do you think this is a realistic scenario, that there could be something like a private invasion from Cuban exiles?

Mr. McCarry: I'd have to refer you to the Department of Homeland Security for that kind of question.

Question: You talked about a change in July. You seem to be focusing on change amongst the Cuban population. What's been the government's change, either structurally or has there been any positive change at all?

Mr. McCarry: There's no real sense that the government actually has changed. Clearly the government has its goal to continue the regime as is. But in our view it surely is not acceptable to the Cuban people to have a dynastic succession imposed upon them, in fact. Rather they should now have an opportunity to openly discuss their own future and ultimately to have the opportunity to vote for their leaders, vote for the next government in free and fair elections. As, I would add is the norm in the Western Hemisphere.

Question: Would Castro's death weaken the regime?

Mr. McCarry: I can't speculate one way or the other. What I can tell you is that what is actually happening is what's important.

I'd really refer you back to look at the increase in the independent civic activity in Cuba. It's my belief, actually the Cubans have --

Question: How do you measure that?

Mr. McCarry: You actually can measure it. There's a book I would recommend to you called "Steps to Freedom," which is put out by the Comite Democratico Cubano. Actually it's a very good book because it covers all kinds of activity across the political spectrum that doesn't take any ideological position. It does really document the fact that there has been a substantial increase in independent civic activity in Cuba. And it's my belief, actually, that Cuban civil society is re-knitting itself back together now. That's a very powerful thing.

Question: At the same time it seems to me that the position that the regime is maybe today more stable than it was a couple of years ago because there is cheap oil coming in from Venezuela and there are loads of tourists coming in from Europe and Canada and the army, Raul Castro is maybe even better in charge than a couple of years ago. Would you agree with that assessment all in all, that at the same time there might be a surge of independent activity, that the regime is still in pretty stable condition?

Mr. McCarry: As I said, the regime is seeking to perpetuate itself and using the instruments at its disposal, particularly oppression, to do so. I would ask you to think about that, the fact that it's using, has actually increased repression in order to maintain control.

It's really more a question of, I think the more interesting question is what are Cubans expecting? It's very difficult to see polls in Cuba, of course, because of the nature of the regime. But there was one that actually caught my attention which was conducted by a Spanish organization called Solidaridad Española con Cuba. It asked the question should there be no change, some change, or significant change in Cuba. What was interesting was the way the poll was taken, it was actually posed as a conversation, actually a socialist pollster looked at the methodology and thought it was sound. About 15 percent said no change. A little less than 40 percent said significant change. A little more than 40 percent said some change. So about 80 percent of Cubans said they wanted some or significant change. The figure for young people was about 80 percent significant change. I think that's an important indicator.

Question: Can you elaborate about the [inaudible]? You talked about broadcasting. What can you do exactly? How do you measure?

Mr. McCarry: We do a variety of things. We have Radio and Television Marti, of course, which is an independent organization, part of our Broadcasting Board of Governors.

We've stepped up and varied our approach in terms of the kind of broadcasting we're doing, including increases in short wave broadcasting, and including increasing our AM broadcasting on Radio Marti. With Television Marti we have airborne broadcasting including from a civilian platform that's now full time, broadcasting to Cuba.

We have also different shortwave broadcasts that are reaching the island.

I think one indication that broadcasting actually is reaching the island is the extraordinary efforts the government of Cuba takes to try to block that broadcasting.

I had a conversation with a very noted Cuban poet who had been jailed in 2003 and left the country. He pulled me aside and said "you need to understand how important American broadcasting is to people inside Cuba who are suffering under this regime. It is a source of hope to us."

Question: We don't hear that, what we would have expected, the freedom agenda. This is a just such a case. The administration hasn't [inaudible].

Mr. McCarry: Pushing? Certainly this is part of the President's freedom agenda. Freedom, however, in Cuba is something that the United States is going to keep pace with the Cuban people. They're the ones who want their freedom.

Question: But [inaudible] Cuban people, [inaudible] might wish to be [inaudible] President's speech [inaudible]? Do you think it might be counter-productive inside Cuba?

Mr. McCarry: No, I actually think that messages of solidarity, messages of hope, messages that speak to the rights of the Cuban people to recover their sovereignty and to elect their leaders are important; are welcomed by Cubans.

Question: In the press, in the State of the Union, I think he mentioned Cuba.

Mr. McCarry: He did mention Cuba.

Question: In the State of the Union.

Mr. McCarry: In the State of the Union address, which is an indication of --

Question: Belarus --

Question: Burma and Belarus.

Mr. McCarry: There have been a number of statements also by different leaders. President Zapatero himself spoke about democracy in Cuba just recently. These are important. The statements that have come from European nations are vitally important, actually. There was a statement that was issued by the European Union that spoke about Cuba. It spoke about the democratic opposition in Cuba; very important that there's this recognition that there is a democratic opposition in Cuba.

Question: I heard of your offer of support for exiles in the restitution process. Is that so?

Mr. McCarry: I can direct you to the report of the Commission which is at www.cafc.gov for the exact language if you want to pick it up.

What I can tell you is that this is a difficult issue, one that Cubans are going to have to address. It was the Commission's view as presented to the President that this was a matter that we believe the Cubans would most likely want to leave for a democratically elected government to address. And one where the United States of course would want to be helpful. They'll have a number of models they can look at, including in Europe, to address the property issue in ways that helps the countries recover its prosperity.

Question: You said that the United States is against dynastic succession. Is that a matter of U.S. policy in general, or -- There are some exceptions? If we put aside the royal families, I mean.

Mr. McCarry: What I said was that that certainly would not be acceptable to the Cuban people for there to be a dynastic succession.

Question: But acceptable for the other countries, right? I can give you at least just one example. Azerbaijan. You are quite comfortable with that regime. No?

Mr. McCarry: Cuba is in the Western Hemisphere. In the Western Hemisphere we actually have something called the Inter-American Democratic Charter which was signed by all of the countries that are members of the Organization of American States which commits us to a democratic form of government. Ultimately it is our hope for the Cuban people that Cuba will be reintegrated into the Inter-American democratic system.

Question: Can you repeat the web site?

Mr. McCarry: Sure, it's www.cafc.gov.

Question: How smooth do you think a transition to democracy could be? I wouldn't want to compare Cuba with Iraq, but we see the legacy of dictators is sometimes kind of more than surface deep.

Mr. McCarry: I can only speak to Cuba, of course, and of course Cubans have endured decades of dictatorship. I would encourage you to look through the document because we talk about that, we've taken that into account in our thinking and our planning. But this is going to be a process of recovery. It's going to require our assistance, all of us actually, to help Cubans work through these issues.

What we're saying is actually those are matters for Cubans to resolve with our help.

Question: But that seems to assume there would be some period of chaos in Cuba. There is a scramble to help, humanitarian help. Like the island would need urgent help in case of this [inaudible].

Mr. McCarry: There are longstanding humanitarian needs in Cuba, particularly in eastern Cuba, as a consequence of these decades of dictatorship. The purpose of the humanitarian assistance, and this is actually central to our thinking, is at a time when Cuba is going through a transition process that we want to be prepared to offer every possible assistance to help Cubans through that, to help them meet these unmet needs, pent-up needs, and to assist in getting the support that a transition government that is actually dedicated to the democratic process would need to get to free --

Question: A lot of conditions must be met before, right? Freeing prisoners, election, at least a path to elections and so on. It's not just --

Mr. McCarry: Of course, but these are --

Question: -- conditions.

Mr. McCarry: These are things that Cubans themselves are asking for. You're familiar with the Ladies in White. Their husbands, their brothers, their uncles, their fathers are in prison for 25 years for doing what you do. It's not unreasonable to ask that they be released and we support that.

Restoration of fundamental freedoms -- freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom to own a business. These are things that are the norm I'd say in the Western Hemisphere. Creating a pathway that leads to free and fair elections. These are things the Cubans themselves are asking for and we support them.

Question: I don't think that you are hearing any of us defending the regime. The question is, how do you get there? And every pundit you speak to in this town thinks that the American policy in Cuba is a failure and that you don't have -- The regime did not collapse after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and they lost $4 billion a year in help; did not collapse last July when Castro disappeared from the scene. So does it work? Where do you see proof that it's working? Getting you to the goal you mentioned.

Mr. McCarry: I actually believe that Cubans are making progress themselves in working to define their own future. Our efforts are actually supporting them by a combination of maintaining pressure for a democratic regime, providing assistance and encouraging assistance that reaches the Cuban people directly, and also holding out the hope that real engagement with our country can occur and it will actually benefit the Cuban people when they are free too. We are partners in investments.

You know that currently in Cuba if you invest there your business partner is the government of Cuba. If you're investing in the hotel industry more likely than not it's actually the Cuban military.

Our purpose here is to support and encourage real change.

Question: I think you talked about [inaudible] the new political situation in Congress.

Mr. McCarry: Oh, on Capitol Hill? Obviously there's been a change in control of the majority and we look forward to working with Congress.

Question: That makes things easier or has it changed as you said yet?

Mr. McCarry: As I say, I think in the policy debate there are Republicans and Democrats on both sides of this issue.

Question: What's your main counterpart among the exiles? You mentioned the Radio and TV Marti. Others?

Mr. McCarry: I guess I would say with regard to the exile community, that by and large they actually are very important to this process. They provide a substantial amount of support to their families on the island. They play an important role in supporting independent Cubans in Cuba. There are Cuban-Americans who on their own accept collect phone calls from independent reporters and transcribe their reports and post them on the internet.

Cubans abroad are a tremendous reservoir also of expertise and ultimately when genuine change comes to Cuba will have an important contribution to make in frankly I believe helping, again, their brothers and sisters and family get back on their feet, start businesses, start having the kind of normal life that Cubans throw themselves onto their seas to try to come to get into this country.

I would like to say a word about that. That is that we welcome tens of thousands of Cubans to this country every year. They find freedom here, they find prosperity here. They are good citizens. They've added tremendously to our country. We just simply want Cubans in Cuba to have that same opportunity.

Question: Will there be a third report?

Mr. McCarry: I think I'm done with reports, hopefully. It's more a question now of implementing the recommendations and working to hopefully create an opportunity for a real process of change in Cuba.

We can disagree on aspects of this. That's fine. But I don't think we disagree on ultimately what we all would like for Cubans which is a genuine opportunity for change.

Question: Have you identified mostly opposition or the [inaudible] future, potential future leaders of a free Cuba?

Mr. McCarry: That's for Cubans to decide. What's important to us is that there's actually a process. Cubans themselves will simply need to be able to act as the sovereign that they are and determine through free and fair elections who their leaders are.

Thank you.

Question: Thank you.