Abstract: In this presentation I will discuss some recent activities at the CHC which have some         relationship to  interests/projects at the NHC. Specifically, I will discuss the  use of the "post-tropical" terminology in the  Canadian  forecast bulletins; storm surge forecasting/warnings during tropical events; and track-relative forecast  error  distributions.  Finally I will summarize the most recent work on experimental probabilistic wind swath  forecast graphics, which entail the blending storm-only wind swaths with dynamical  ensemble-based wind probability fields.

"Advances In Tropical Cyclone Track Uncertainty Guidance: Understanding Why Uncertainty  Looks the Way It Does".                                                presented Sept. 2008 by Dr. Jim Hansen
Presentation Audio File                                       Naval Research Laboratory ,Monterey, CA.

"The CIRA and CIMSS AMSU Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analyses: How Accurate Are They?                                                                 presented Aug. 2008 by Corey Walton
(No audio file available)                                      SCEP Student Intern
                                                                           National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fl.

"The Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation (THC) and Its Dominant Influence on Atlantic Major  Hurricane"                                                        presented July 08 by Dr.William M. Gray
(No audio file available)                                      Department of Atmospheric Science
                                                                           Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO ABSTRACT:"The Atlantic undergoes large multi-decadal variations in major hurricane frequency.  These changes are important because it has been extablished that major hurricanes (~20 percent of named  storms) account for about 80-85  percent of the US's normalized (population, inflation, wealth) hurricane  destruction.  These multi-decadal changes in major hurricane activity are hypothesized to reslt from multi-decadal variations in Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) or the AMO as it is sometimes referred to.  This oscillatiion is hypothesized to be primarily driven by Atlantic salinity variations - the so called salt oscilation.  It will be shown how Atlantic SSTs, SLPAs, trade winds and 200 mb zonal winds, and Atlantic surface salinity patterns respond in a systematic manner to these THC variations.  The large increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane frequency of the last 13 years is due to the THC becoming much stronger than it was during the period of 1970-1994.  This increase should not be intepreted as having anything to do with atmospheric CO2 increases."                

Ideas for Improving Hurricane Forecasts"      presented June 08 by  Dr. Alexander "Sandy" MacDonald 
(no audio available)                                                                               Deputy Assistant Administrator for Oceanic                                                                                                                   Atmospheric Research (OAR) and Director,                                                                                                                 OAR's Earth Systems Research Lab (ESRL) 

"Hurricane  Primer" created by Neal Dorst
                                                   Hurricane Reaserch Division
                                                   Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory