EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
259 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2009
 
...VALID 06Z WED MAY 06 2009 - 12Z THU MAY 07 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
FFC 45 SSW EET 30 S HKS 30 NNW IER 30 E OSA 25 SW DEQ
20 WNW MWT 25 SE RUE 10 S SRC 30 E OLV 20 SW BNA BNA 30 NNW LOZ
PKB 10 S IDI 25 ENE CBE 15 ENE HSP 15 SSW TNB 10 WSW AND
25 ESE ATL FFC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
35 E ANB 30 NE NMM 20 NE JAN 10 NNW BQP 15 NE ELD 30 SSW M89
M89 10 S LIT 20 WSW UTA 15 ESE MSL 10 SW MDQ 20 NNE 4A9 RMG
35 E ANB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
20 WSW 48I 10 SSW CKB 20 SW 2G4 15 SSE EKN 20 NNW HSP
10 NNE LWB 20 NW LWB 20 WSW 48I.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW GWO 45 WSW TUP 10 NNE 1M4 10 NW 8A0
15 NE GAD 25 ENE BHM 20 NE TCL 15 SSW GTR 25 SSE GWO 20 SSW GLH
20 SE LLQ 25 NW GLH 45 NW GWO.

 
LOWER MS VALLEY...NRN GULF COASTAL STATES INTO THE SRN TO CNTRL
APPALACHIANS...

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PCPN EVENT ON TAP
THIS PERIOD AS THE NEXT IN CURRENT SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHRTWVS
MOVES NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  WELL DEFINED
MID TO UPR LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVG ALONG THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
PWS WL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PCPN AMTS ACRS
THESE AREAS.  LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...EWD ACRS NRN GULF COASTAL STATES WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF PCPN IN A W TO E DIRECTION.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING...SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1-2"+ AND TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5"
ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING GRID SCALE BULLS EYES OVR
NRN AL...NRN MS AND NRN GA...THE GFS AMTS OF 4-6"+ IN THESE BULLS
EYES MAY BE REASONABLE TOTALS GIVEN THE TRAINING POTENTIAL.

FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE PCPN AMTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HEAVY FROM TN...NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...LOW FFG
VALUES WARRANT A RISK OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS ACRS THESE AREAS.  SHRT
TERM  PCPN AMTS OF 1"+ POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD ACRS THESE AREAS.


ORAVEC