EL NIÑO SUPPRESSED HURRICANES
IN 2002 SEASON, NOAA REPORTS
Lili Was First Land-falling Hurricane In Three Years
November
25, 2002 — The 2002
Atlantic hurricane season that officially ends Nov. 30, produced only
four hurricanes due to a strengthening El
Niño, said NOAA hurricane
specialists. However, twice the normal number of storm systems (eight)
affected the nation, bringing storm surge and severe weather and rain
to the nation, including Hurricane Lili, the first
land-falling hurricane to strike the United States since the 1999 Hurricane
Season. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane
Lili taken at 4:45 p.m. EDT on Oct. 2, 2002. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a large file.
Please credit “NOAA.”)
"A strengthening
El Niño suppressed the numbers of hurricanes and weakened storms,"
said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jack
Kelly, director of the NOAA National
Weather Service. "Thanks to El Niño's influence, we experienced
only four hurricanes—half the number we've seen in typical seasons
since 1995," Kelly added.
Overall
in 2002, there were 12 named storms, of which four became hurricanes.
Hurricanes Lili and Isidore were classified as
major (category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale). Eight
storms (Tropical Storms Bertha, Edouard, Fay and Hanna; and Hurricanes
Gustav, Isidore, Kyle and Lili) affected the coastal United States. Hurricane
Lili was the only storm to make landfall while still a hurricane. The
other 2002 storms were: Tropical Storms Arthur, Cristobal, Dolly and Josephine.
(Click NOAA image for larger view of Hurricane Lili taken from
inside the eye wall Oct. 2, 2002, at 3:23 p.m. EDT from NOAA's P-3 Orion
hurricane hunter aircraft. Click
here for high resolution version of this image, which is a large file.
Please credit "NOAA.")
Hurricane
forecasters at the NOAA Climate
Prediction Center, Hurricane
Research Division and National Hurricane
Center correctly forecast climate conditions, including the El Niño,
would reduce the overall hurricane activity this season. The forecast
called for seven to 10 tropical storms, of which four to six could develop
into hurricanes, with one to three classified as major.
CPC
Director Jim Laver noted they correctly predicted El Niño would
suppress the season's "overall activity" (based on a complex
formula used by the scientists that combines the number of tropical storms,
and their duration and intensity). He pointed out, there were two more
named tropical storms than the range of 7-10 predicted, but because several
named storms were weak, and of short duration they contributed little
to the scientific measure of diminished "overall activity."
(NOAA aerial photo of Hurricane Isidore taken Thursday, Sept.
19, 2002 at 7:36 p.m. EDT from a NOAA
P-3 Orion "hurricane hunter" aircraft at an altitude of
7,000 feet. Click here
for high resolution version. Please note that this is a large file. Please
credit "NOAA.")
"Gaining
a better understanding of the atmospheric conditions controlling seasonal
hurricane activity is at the heart of NOAA extended range hurricane outlooks,"
said Laver. "This is our fifth straight year of issuing accurate
outlooks for overall hurricane season activity. But future success depends
on more research into how global and regional climate patterns affect
Atlantic hurricane activity."
Louisiana,
the hardest hit area, was battered by four storms including the powerful
Hurricane Lili and Tropical Storm Isidore. The 2002 season's storms caused
9 deaths in the United States and about $900 million in damages. Max Mayfield,
director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center, said, "Four storm
strikes on Louisiana remind us of the need for preparedness during every
hurricane season. It's not the number of storms that counts—it's
where they go." (NOAA aerial photo of Hurricane Isidore taken
Thursday, Sept. 19, 2002 at 6:37 p.m. EDT from a NOAA
P-3 Orion "hurricane hunter" aircraft at an altitude of
7,000 feet. Click here for high
resolution version. Please note that this is a large file. Please credit
"NOAA.")
Mayfield
added, "Tropical storm track forecast accuracy continued to improve
this year, due in part to accurate computer forecast models from the NOAA
Environmental Modeling Center. The landfall of Hurricane Lili in Louisiana
was well forecast nearly three days in advance," he said. "However,
intensity forecasts did not capture Lili's rapid weakening (from a Category
4 to a Category 1-2) in the 12 hours before landfall. We are working through
the U.S. Weather Research Program to improve intensity forecasting,"
Mayfield said.
Mayfield
also noted the public relied heavily on Internet access for lifesaving
information from NOAA this season. "The explosive use of the Internet
to convey vital information to the public in near real time has been astonishing,"
he said. "Between August and September the NHC Web site recorded
almost 500 million hits. The peak day for the season was Oct. 3 (Hurricane
Lili) when the site recorded 35.9 million hits—doubling the previous
record set in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. We are saving lives thanks
to the Internet," Mayfield noted. The NOAA High Performance Computing
and Communications Program manages the system.
NOAA National
Weather Service is the primary source for weather data, forecasts and
warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA Weather Service
operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system
in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national
economy. NOAA is an agency of the Commerce Department.
Relevant
Web Sites
2002
Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary
NOAA
2002 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
NOAA's
National Hurricane Center
Get the latest advisories here
NOAA's Atlantic Hurricanes
Database — 150 Years of Atlantic Hurricanes
El
Niño Expected to Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Reports
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Scale
NOAA's River Forecast Centers
NOAA's Flood Products
NOAA Rainfall Graphics
24-hour
Observed Precipitation as of 8 a.m. today
Latest
rainfall data as of 8 a.m. EDT today
NOAA Buoys
NOAA's
Tides Online
NOAA Satellite Images The
latest satellite views
Colorized Satellite Images
NOAA 3-D Satellite Images
NOAA's Hurricanes Page
NOAA's Storm Watch
Get the latest severe weather information across the USA
Media
Contact:
Frank
Lepore, NOAA National Hurricane
Center, (305) 229-4404
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