[top]
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071818
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
116 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND
WINDS. ALSO ADDED SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND THE
CENTRAL COAST FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
TODAY. NORTH-SOUTH GRADS REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ARE STILL
STRENGTHENING. LAX-BFL AND SBA-BFL IS NOW AT -7.6 MB...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AT MONTECITO HILLS AND GUSTS
NEAR 80 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING A VERY BRIEF LULL LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EMPHASIS IS ON THE BRIEF AS WINDY
SHOULD PICK BACK UP. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THEREFORE
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED...WITH THE AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN BEING THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF WARMING
AT LOW LEVELS...THANKS TO THE CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AND
SLIGHT RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALL SPELLS ANOTHER HOT
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE RECORDS FALLING...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS TODAY AS EVIDENT BY A LATE SURGE OF
WARMER 950MB TEMPS. THIS HOT AIRMASS AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL
FURTHER DRY THE AIRMASS AND KEEP THE OBVIOUS FIRE WX CONCERNS
GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN SBA COUNTY.
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WINDY...WITH MILD LOW TEMPS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE JUST AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH OVER THE
EASTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THINGS WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY...AND FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY EXPAND INTO LA/VTU COUNTIES.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER AND SURFACE SUPPORT WEAKEN FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT
AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN IN THE MORNING THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY RETURN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS NOT WARNINGS. THKNS ALSO DROPS A LITTLE AS WELL
SO LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL SEE A LARGE DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER MUCH EXCEPT THAT ON SATURDAY THE TROF WILL KNOCK
HGTS DOWN AND COOL THINGS DOWN SOME. NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS STILL EXIST SO THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZES JUST
MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY.
THEN SUNDAY A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP BEHIND THE TROF AND THIS WILL
RISE TEMPS BACK UP BUT REALLY NOT TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...
GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECS THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
STILL CALLS FOR CYCLONIC FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT NOW IT IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE LESS MARINE LAYER AND
WARMER TEMPS. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE REAL MARINE LAYER WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUE OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1800Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST WHILE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
PERSIST. THE MARINE LAYER WAS BELOW 1KFT AND DEPTH WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...IT IS LIKELY LLWS 36020KT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08/02Z AND
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE 1/2SM FOG
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08/13Z AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PERSIST AND
LIKELY LLWS WILL PERSIST.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071720
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1020 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:19 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED
TO APPROXIMATELY 2000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE 1200 UTC KOAK SOUNDING
AND FORT ORD PROFILER. THIS RESULTED IN WIDE SPREAD STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING THE STRATUS QUICKLY ERODING FROM THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA WILL BE IN THE STRATUS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
ACCORDING TO THE 1200 UTC NAM 12 STRATUS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
TOMORROW MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND
950 FEET DEEP IN MONTEREY AND SALINAS WHILE A WELL DEFINED LAYER
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THEREFORE...DONT
EXPECTED STRATUS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BUT DO EXPECT IT TO
REFORM TONIGHT AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
OVERALL ALL IT APPEARS THAT A WARM MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE 0600 UTC OPERATIONAL
GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF ARE AGREEING ON QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WHICH WILL COOL THE CWA A FEW DEGREES THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...INHIBITING THE
REFORMATION OF STRATUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A NORTHERLY GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE ACV-
SFO GRADIENT IS PRESENTLY 5 MB BUT PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPROACH. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ON THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TONIGHT BUT INLAND EXTENSION SHOULD BE QUITE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT. LOCALLY GUSTY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM.
SCA...SFO AND MONTEREY BAYS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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000
FXUS66 KSGX 071629
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PEAK TODAY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND
FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPREADING INTO THE
VALLEYS BY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
THERE WAS PATCHY STRATUS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT
WAS CLEAR. INLAND TEMPS ARE WAY UP FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH 70S BEING
REPORTED IN SEVERAL VALLEY...MOUNTAIN...AND DESERT LOCATIONS AS OF 8
AM. THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWS A MONSTER 12C (20F) 3000 FT DEEP
SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH WARMING THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN.
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE -11 MB LAX-SFO OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AFFECTING OXNARDS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 0 MB SAN-DAG AND 4 MB SAN-IPL ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEING OBSERVED LOCALLY. THIS IS CAUSING GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT STRONG GUSTY
OFFSHORE FLOW JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA IN OXNARDS FORECAST AREA. IN
OTHER WORDS...WE ARE GETTING THE HEAT WITHOUT THE WINDS.
FLAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PEAKS TODAY WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO 24C
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 26C OVER THE DESERTS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY INLAND. COASTAL TEMPS HOWEVER SHOULD BE
KEPT IN CHECK BY THE STRONG INVERSION...AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S THERE. MARINE LAYER STRATUS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT THE COAST AND WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS SLOWLY CARVED OUT TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
START A SLOW COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW THIS WEEKEND...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS...THEN A LITTLE DEEPER NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD BACK INTO SOME OF THE VALLEYS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNING. BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
071530Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOUCHED THE COAST IN SPOTS THIS MORNING
BUT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AT COASTAL AIRPORTS TODAY. A SIMILAR
SHALLOW AND PATCHY MARINE LAYER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT COASTAL AIRPORTS...AND ONLY BRIEFLY
IF THEY DO WITH 3-5SM VISBY AND A QUICK CEILING OF ABOUT 500 FEET
MSL BETWEEN 10-15Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION...MM
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000
FXUS65 KPSR 071622
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS SURPASSING THE CENTURY
MARK EACH DAY. SOME MINOR LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING RAOB TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AT
MOST PLACES AND THIS IS REFELCTED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. MADE
SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE MAX T GRID FOR TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANGE TO POPULATION CENTERS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE
TO DEW POINTS FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME WX-WISE THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. THIS IS KEEPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AT BAY WELL OFF TO OUR
N...WITH THE TAIL END OF THESE FEATURES GIVING RISE TO SOME LOCAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. WITH THE AMS ANTICIPATED TO STAY VERY WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT 100-105 DEGREE HIGHS TO BECOME
COMMONPLACE...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS DEPICTED BY LATEST MOS TRENDS.
BY NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE STORM TRACK ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS. THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME VERY SLIGHT LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE DAYTIME READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
RIGHT ON THRU THE EXTENDED. STILL NO RAIN ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...
EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...ANTICIPATE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH 17Z TODAY BEFORE TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES WITH SOME
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. EASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 06-07Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. ANTICIPATE LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ/ESTLE
AVIATION...PADDOCK
FIRE WEATHER...PADDOCK
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071620
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
920 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:19 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED
TO APPROXIMATELY 2000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE 1200 UTC KOAK SOUNDING
AND FORT ORD PROFILER. THIS RESULTED IN WIDE SPREAD STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING THE STRATUS QUICKLY ERODING FROM THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA WILL BE IN THE STRATUS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
ACCORDING TO THE 1200 UTC NAM 12 STRATUS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
TOMORROW MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND
950 FEET DEEP IN MONTEREY AND SALINAS WHILE A WELL DEFINED LAYER
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THEREFORE...DONT
EXPECTED STRATUS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BUT DO EXPECT IT TO
REFORM TONIGHT AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
OVERALL ALL IT APPEARS THAT A WARM MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE 0600 UTC OPERATIONAL
GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF ARE AGREEING ON QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WHICH WILL COOL THE CWA A FEW DEGREES THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...INHIBITING THE
REFORMATION OF STRATUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW BUT VERY MOIST
LAYER AT OR BELOW 800 FT MSL OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY
BAY AREAS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
3-6SM IN FOG...LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES AROUND KSTS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WITH STRENGTHENING NW-SE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DURING THE DAY FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND ALONG THE
COAST.
KSFO AND VICINITY...IFR CIG OVC003-005 BUT BREAKING OUT BY 1730Z
DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MIXING WINDS. WINDS
WEST 10-15KTS THROUGH 19Z BUT THEREAFTER INCREASING AND REACHING
WNW 24G32KTS BY 22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15KTS BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ANY
STRATUS TONIGHT TO ARRIVE VERY LATE AND BROKEN AS STRONG NW-SE
GRADIENT IN EXCESS OF 5MB ARCATA TO SAN FRANCISCO TO MINIMIZE
INLAND STRATUS SURGE. STILL EXPECT SCT OCNL BKN AT KSFO FROM 12-15Z
FRIDAY MORNING BUT BRIDGE APPROACH LIKELY CLEAR.
MONTEREY PENINSULA AREA...IFR CIG OVC003-005 CLEARING BY 18Z AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WNW WINDS 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND KSNS TO 21KTS BY 21Z. SCT TO OCNL IFR BKN007 AFT
10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM.
SCA...SFO AND MONTEREY BAYS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071619
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
919 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:19 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED
TO APPROXIMATELY 2000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE 1200 UTC KOAK SOUNDING
AND FORT ORD PROFILER. THIS RESULTED IN WIDE SPREAD STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING THE STRATUS QUICKLY ERODING FROM THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA WILL BE IN THE STRATUS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
ACCORDING TO THE 1200 UTC NAM 12 STRATUS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
TOMORROW MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND
950 FEET DEEP IN MONTEREY AND SALINAS WHILE A WELL DEFINED LAYER
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THEREFORE...DONT
EXPECTED STRATUS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BUT DO EXPECT IT TO
REFORM TONIGHT AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
OVERALL ALL IT APPEARS THAT A WARM MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE 0600 UTC OPERATIONAL
GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF ARE AGREEING ON QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WHICH WILL COOL THE CWA A FEW DEGREES THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...INHIBITING THE
REFORMATION OF STRATUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW BUT VERY MOIST
LAYER AT OR BELOW 800 FT MSL OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY
BAY AREAS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
3-6SM IN FOG...LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES AROUND KSTS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WITH STRENGTHENING NW-SE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DURING THE DAY FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND ALONG THE
COAST.
KSFO AND VICINITY...IFR CIG OVC003-005 BUT BREAKING OUT BY 1730Z
DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MIXING WINDS. WINDS
WEST 10-15KTS THROUGH 19Z BUT THEREAFTER INCREASING AND REACHING
WNW 24G32KTS BY 22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15KTS BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ANY
STRATUS TONIGHT TO ARRIVE VERY LATE AND BROKEN AS STRONG NW-SE
GRADIENT IN EXCESS OF 5MB ARCATA TO SAN FRANCISCO TO MINIMIZE
INLAND STRATUS SURGE. STILL EXPECT SCT OCNL BKN AT KSFO FROM 12-15Z
FRIDAY MORNING BUT BRIDGE APPROACH LIKELY CLEAR.
MONTEREY PENINSULA AREA...IFR CIG OVC003-005 CLEARING BY 18Z AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WNW WINDS 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND KSNS TO 21KTS BY 21Z. SCT TO OCNL IFR BKN007 AFT
10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM.
SCA...SFO AND MONTEREY BAYS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071617
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
915 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE PATCHY MORNING FOG. LOW CLOUDS ARE
AFFECTING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY INCLUDING THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP AND
BEGINNING TO CLEAR THE FOG BANK. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT LOWERED
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1-3 STATUTE MILES IMPROVING TO CLEAR SKIES BY
LATE MORNING.
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT FROM MEDFORD TO SACRAMENTO IS CURRENTLY AT 5-6
MB AND IS PROJECTED TO BECOME 8-10 MB LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY VALLEY WINDS WILL RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ON FRIDAY. NW-SE GRADIENT
WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT LOCAL GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT UNDER SUBTLE RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER
OUR CWA INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOW 80S TODAY FOR THE VALLEY FLOOR...MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. WARMING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES C BETWEEN TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE DAYTIME MAX TEMPS FOR THE VALLEY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S RANGE...ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. JBB
.EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE OMEGA PATTERN FARTHER WEST AND
NORTH IN THE PACIFIC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS CALIFORNIA REMAINS
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EPAC RIDGE MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS FROM SUNDAY. STORM SYSTEM FROM GOA DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVES ACROSS PAC NW TUESDAY
AND NOW MODELED TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH OF CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...MINOR COOLING EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER NORTHERN TERRAIN BUT REMAINING
DRY. SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER NORCAL.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR NORCAL BRINGING
STRATUS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TO THE W SLOPE SIERNEV AND PORTIONS
OF THE SRN SAC VLY INCLUDING THE SAC METRO AREA. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER RTES AROUND 18Z AS DRIER NWLY WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCAL NWLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VLY AFTER 18Z. NWLY GRADIENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNITE WITH
DRIER FLOW AND VFR SKC CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING
IN THE VALLEY AS RADIATIVE INVERSION FORMS AFTER 05Z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071609
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND
WINDS. ALSO ADDED SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND THE
CENTRAL COAST FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
TODAY. NORTH-SOUTH GRADS REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ARE STILL
STRENGTHENING. LAX-BFL AND SBA-BFL IS NOW AT -7.6 MB...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AT MONTECITO HILLS AND GUSTS
NEAR 80 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING A VERY BRIEF LULL LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EMPHASIS IS ON THE BRIEF AS WINDY
SHOULD PICK BACK UP. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THEREFORE
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED...WITH THE AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN BEING THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF WARMING
AT LOW LEVELS...THANKS TO THE CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AND
SLIGHT RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALL SPELLS ANOTHER HOT
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE RECORDS FALLING...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS TODAY AS EVIDENT BY A LATE SURGE OF
WARMER 950MB TEMPS. THIS HOT AIRMASS AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL
FURTHER DRY THE AIRMASS AND KEEP THE OBVIOUS FIRE WX CONCERNS
GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN SBA COUNTY.
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WINDY...WITH MILD LOW TEMPS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE JUST AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH OVER THE
EASTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THINGS WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY...AND FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY EXPAND INTO LA/VTU COUNTIES.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER AND SURFACE SUPPORT WEAKEN FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT
AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN IN THE MORNING THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY RETURN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS NOT WARNINGS. THKNS ALSO DROPS A LITTLE AS WELL
SO LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL SEE A LARGE DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER MUCH EXCEPT THAT ON SATURDAY THE TROF WILL KNOCK
HGTS DOWN AND COOL THINGS DOWN SOME. NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS STILL EXIST SO THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZES JUST
MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY.
THEN SUNDAY A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP BEHIND THE TROF AND THIS WILL
RISE TEMPS BACK UP BUT REALLY NOT TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...
GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECS THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
STILL CALLS FOR CYCLONIC FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT NOW IT IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE LESS MARINE LAYER AND
WARMER TEMPS. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE REAL MARINE LAYER WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUE OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
07/1130Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. K LYRS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SBA COAST AND
WATERS WITH SOME MVFR VIS. LGT-MDT TURBC OVER AND NEAR TO THE MTNS.
KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-070.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
000
FXUS66 KHNX 071605
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
905 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...FLAT UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER CA THIS MORNING
WITH A FAST UPPER WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING A SERIES OF IMPULSES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. AS THE STRONGER IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE
RIDGE...SURFACE P-GRADS OVER OUR AREA STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORMALLY WIND PRONE
AREAS IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INCLUDING THE MOJAVE AND
TEHACHAPI AREAS. SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS WERE LOCALIZED...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO
COLVER THE LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE STRATO-CUMULUS FORMED TOWARD DAYBREAK
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AS WELL AS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS. AS IN THE CASE OF YDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO BURN
OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY MIDDAY. SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO YDAY AND ARE ON TARGET TO REACH PROJECTED
MAX/S TODAY. AM NOT PLANNING AN UPDATE AT THIS TIME SINCE THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET.
WRF/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATE THE FLAT RIDGE PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWLY UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
CA RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOLING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071200
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
500 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATL IMAGERY AS WELL AS
SFC OBS INDC AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
COASTAL VALLEYS...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE FT ORD PROFILER IS
INDC A WEAK MARINE INVERSION OF 500 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDC A
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE DISTRICT.
TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S...WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S. THE GRADIENT PICTURE IS INDICATIVE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE PATTERN WITH A 4.2 MB NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO AND
A WEAK TO MODERATE 1.8 MB ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN SFO-SAC.
TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE STATE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE VALLEYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO THE
STATE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL SEVERAL DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW BUT VERY MOIST
LAYER AT OR BELOW 800 FT MSL OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY
BAY AREAS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
3-6SM IN FOG...LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES AROUND KSTS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WITH STRENGTHENING NW-SE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DURING THE DAY FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND ALONG THE
COAST.
KSFO AND VICINITY...IFR CIG OVC003-005 BUT BREAKING OUT BY 1730Z
DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MIXING WINDS. WINDS
WEST 10-15KTS THROUGH 19Z BUT THEREAFTER INCREASING AND REACHING
WNW 24G32KTS BY 22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15KTS BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ANY
STRATUS TONIGHT TO ARRIVE VERY LATE AND BROKEN AS STRONG NW-SE
GRADIENT IN EXCESS OF 5MB ARCATA TO SAN FRANCISCO TO MINIMIZE
INLAND STRATUS SURGE. STILL EXPECT SCT OCNL BKN AT KSFO FROM 12-15Z
FRIDAY MORNING BUT BRIDGE APPROACH LIKELY CLEAR.
MONTEREY PENINSULA AREA...IFR CIG OVC003-005 CLEARING BY 18Z AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WNW WINDS 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND KSNS TO 21KTS BY 21Z. SCT TO OCNL IFR BKN007 AFT
10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM.
SCA...SFO AND MONTEREY BAYS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071136
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
355 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
NORTH WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT BFL GRAD
IS -5.9 AND THE SMX-SBA GRAD (THE BEST GRADIENT FOR SUNDOWNER WIND
FORECASTING) IS -5.5 BOTH THESE ARE 2MB MORE OFFSHORE THAN AT THIS
TIME YDY. THIS INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL PUSH SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR
THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND EXPECT WARNING LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
TO 900 AM FRIDAY AND ISSUED A NEW WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST. 580DM HGTS AND NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR A
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A COUPLE 100 OR 101S THROWN IN AS
WELL. AGAIN THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 90 TO 100
RANGE AS THE HOT AIR RUSHES DOWN THE SANTA YNEZ HILLS.
CONTINUED WINDY TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS.
UPPER AND SURFACE SUPPORT WEAKEN FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT
AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN IN THE MORNING THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY RETURN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS NOT WARNINGS. THKNS ALSO DROPS A LITTLE AS WELL
SO LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL SEE A LARGE DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER MUCH EXCEPT THAT ON SATURDAY THE TROF WILL KNOCK
HGTS DOWN AND COOL THINGS DOWN SOME. NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS STILL EXIST SO THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZES JUST
MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY.
THEN SUNDAY A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP BEHIND THE TROF AND THIS WILL
RISE TEMPS BACK UP BUT REALLY NOT TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...
GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECS THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
STILL CALLS FOR CYCLONIC FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT NOW IT IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE LESS MARINE LAYER AND
WARMER TEMPS. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE REAL MARINE LAYER WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUE OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
07/1130Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. K LYRS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SBA COAST AND
WATERS WITH SOME MVFR VIS. LGT-MDT TURBC OVER AND NEAR TO THE MTNS.
KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-070.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
000
FXUS66 KEKA 071117
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
416 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION
AND BRING DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER TO NW CA. THE MAIN SHORT-TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF COASTAL STRATUS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND HELP DISSIPATE COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
THE DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
COASTAL STRATUS TONIGHT....EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY AS THE WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR COASTAL FOG OVERNIGHT FRI AS A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NW CA. THE FOG SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
OVER THE OCEAN WITH LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION. HAVE LOWERED
COASTAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOG. A
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SUN WITH
OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUAL WARMING INLAND.
LONG TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND NOW FORECAST IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF CA. THE GFS
FORECASTS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO
CLIP DEL NORTE COUNTY MONDAY. ANY RAIN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH A RETURN OF SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER TUE AND WED. TH
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT CIGS AROUND 1KFT
ALONG THE COAST WHILE VSBYS HAVE BEEN GOOD. THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING BRINGING A DRIER
FLOW WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AT LEAST. ELSEWHERE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY A SHORT PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 10 SECONDS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL LATER
TONIGHT. WEAK WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY THEN
INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW PEAKING NEAR GALE FORCE
STRENGTH...PRIMARILY IN THE OUTER WATERS...ON FRIDAY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PZZ455 SCA TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT
PZZ470-475 SCA TODAY...GALE AND HAZ SEAS WATCH FRI MORNING THROUGH
SAT.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071110
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
410 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BECOMING LESS
DISCERNIBLE ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. SOME LOWER CLOUDS EVIDENT
ON FOG PRODUCT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG
WEST SLOPES AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. KDAX VAD PROFILER SHOWING
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND WHICH HAS ADVECTED COLDER MOIST AIR FROM
THE FOOTHILLS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAC/NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEYS AND DELTA REGION WHERE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTHWESTERLY BELOW H5 TODAY
OVER NORCAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EPAC BUILDS INTO OREGON.
AS A RESULT...NW-SE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY LEADING TO SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A FIVE
DEGREE RISE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY.
EPAC SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH OREGON INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
INTERIOR NORCAL BECOMES MORE N-S ORIENTED. SURFACE GRADIENT IS
STRONGEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH ABOUT 10 MB FROM KSAC-KMFR BUT RATHER
SHALLOW PHASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THROUGH ONLY ABOUT 850 MB THEN
WIND BEGINS TO BACK TO MORE NWLY ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHORT-LIVED
LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS FRIDAY MORNING BUT GRADIENT THROUGH
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER STRONG MIXING AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 10-12 DEG C
TODAY TO 12-14 DEG C TOMORROW.
DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AS
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER NORCAL.
.EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE OMEGA PATTERN FARTHER WEST AND
NORTH IN THE PACIFIC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS CALIFORNIA REMAINS
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EPAC RIDGE MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS FROM SUNDAY. STORM SYSTEM FROM GOA DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
VRISL MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVES ACROSS PAC NW TUESDAY AND NOW
MODELED TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH OF CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...MINOR
COOLING EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER NORTHERN TERRAIN BUT REMAINING DRY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THEN WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NORCAL.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR NORCAL BRINGING
STRATUS AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE W SLOPE SIERNEV AND
PORTIONS OF THE SRN SAC VLY INCLUDING THE SAC METRO AREA. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER RTES BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS DRIER NWLY
WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCAL NWLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VLY AFTER 18Z. NWLY GRADIENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVERNITE WITH DRIER FLOW AND VFR SKC CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE DECREASING IN THE VALLEY AS RADIATIVE INVERSION FORMS AFTER 05Z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071100 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS SURPASSING THE CENTURY
MARK EACH DAY. SOME MINOR LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME WX-WISE THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. THIS IS KEEPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AT BAY WELL OFF TO OUR
N...WITH THE TAIL END OF THESE FEATURES GIVING RISE TO SOME LOCAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. WITH THE AMS ANTICIPATED TO STAY VERY WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT 100-105 DEGREE HIGHS TO BECOME
COMMONPLACE...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS DEPICTED BY LATEST MOS TRENDS.
BY NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE STORM TRACK ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS. THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME VERY SLIGHT LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE DAYTIME READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
RIGHT ON THRU THE EXTENDED. STILL NO RAIN ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...
EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...ANTICIPATE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH 17Z TODAY BEFORE TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES WITH SOME
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. EASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 06-07Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. ANTICIPATE LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE
AVIATION...PADDOCK
FIRE WEATHER...PADDOCK
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071056
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
355 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
NORTH WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT BFL GRAD
IS -5.9 AND THE SMX-SBA GRAD (THE BEST GRADIENT FOR SUNDOWNER WIND
FORECASTING) IS -5.5 BOTH THESE ARE 2MB MORE OFFSHORE THAN AT THIS
TIME YDY. THIS INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL PUSH SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR
THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND EXPECT WARNING LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
TO 900 AM FRIDAY AND ISSUED A NEW WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST. 580DM HGTS AND NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR A
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A COUPLE 100 OR 101S THROWN IN AS
WELL. AGAIN THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 90 TO 100
RANGE AS THE HOT AIR RUSHES DOWN THE SANTA YNEZ HILLS.
CONTINUED WINDY TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS.
UPPER AND SURFACE SUPPORT WEAKEN FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT
AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN IN THE MORNING THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY RETURN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS NOT WARNINGS. THKNS ALSO DROPS A LITTLE AS WELL
SO LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL SEE A LARGE DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER MUCH EXCEPT THAT ON SATURDAY THE TROF WILL KNOCK
HGTS DOWN AND COOL THINGS DOWN SOME. NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS STILL EXIST SO THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZES JUST
MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY.
THEN SUNDAY A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP BEHIND THE TROF AND THIS WILL
RISE TEMPS BACK UP BUT REALLY NOT TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...
GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECS THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
STILL CALLS FOR CYCLONIC FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT NOW IT IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE LESS MARINE LAYER AND
WARMER TEMPS. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE REAL MARINE LAYER WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUE OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
07/1100Z.
KLAX...
KBUR...
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KHNX 071038
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
338 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS WINDS BELOW TEHACHAPI PASS.
GUSTS AT THE MOJAVE AIRPORT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 60 MPH BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING..BUT IN GENERAL ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 45 AND 55. WINDS
ELSEWHERE IN THE HIGH DESERTS OF KERN COUNTY HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WILL COVER THE MOJAVE AREA WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW. WINDS ON THE GRAPEVINE MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT
STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF TEJON PASS IN L.A.
COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
CONTINUES...WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AT TIMES.
THIS LEAVES AN ELONGATED FLAT RIDGE ACROSS CA. AND WITH ONLY
MINOR UNDULATIONS...THE H5 HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CA HAVE BEEN IN
THE 582 DM RANGE. IN SPITE OF A PRETTY HEALTHY ONSHORE WESTERLY
FLOW...THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS HAVE KEPT MANY AREA MAX AND MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THE PAST FEW DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A
REX-TYPE BLOCK DEVELOPING NEAR OR ALONG 160W WITH TIME...BUT THEY
HAVE NOT BEEN DEALING VERY WELL WITH A RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM TROF
DIGGING SE TOWARD THE PAC NW EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR THE TIME
BEING...HAVE CONTINUED PREV FCSTS AND SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN
TEMPS OVER TIME...BUT NOT THE DRAMATIC CHANGE SOME OF THE MODEL
RUNS COME UP WITH ONCE IN A WHILE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071034
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
334 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATL IMAGERY AS WELL AS
SFC OBS INDC AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
COASTAL VALLEYS...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE FT ORD PROFILER IS
INDC A WEAK MARINE INVERSION OF 500 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDC A
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE DISTRICT.
TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S...WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S. THE GRADIENT PICTURE IS INDICATIVE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE PATTERN WITH A 4.2 MB NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO AND
A WEAK TO MODERATE 1.8 MB ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN SFO-SAC.
TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE STATE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE VALLEYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO THE
STATE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL SEVERAL DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED A THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND AREA
TERMINALS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 18Z (11AM PDT). LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15
KT. KSFO WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM.
SCA...SFO AND MONTEREY BAYS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: CW/GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 070947
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INCREASES A BIT MORE TODAY...THEN IT
DECREASES SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE WEDNESDAY. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY NEAR THE COAST LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN INCREASING NEXT WEEK. WARMER OR
HOTTER TODAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
FLAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INCREASES A TAD TODAY...THEN WEAK SHORT
WAVES CARVE A BIT OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTH...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DIGS MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
MODELS BACKING OFF ON DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK AND
CHANGES ARE RATHER GRADUAL AND SLIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ALSO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY REBOUND ON SUNDAY FOR SOME WARMING WITH
LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY. A FEW DEGREES HOTTER OR WARMER TODAY...THEN
ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHALLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST MAINLY ON THE MESAS. LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER DISORGANIZED AND PATCHY AND THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE
STRATUS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND FARTHER INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXCEPT
BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT TIMES...STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
070830Z...THE STRATUS DECK IS STILL ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE. PATCHY
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AFTER 10Z...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. BASES WILL BE AROUND 800 FT MSL AND VSBY WILL LOWER TO
3-5SM. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM SHOULD CLEAR BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WHITLOW
AVIATION...SS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070947
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS SURPASSING THE CENTURY
MARK EACH DAY. SOME MINOR LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME WX-WISE THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. THIS IS KEEPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AT BAY WELL OFF TO OUR
N...WITH THE TAIL END OF THESE FEATURES GIVING RISE TO SOME LOCAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. WITH THE AMS ANTICIPATED TO STAY VERY WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND...WE CAN EXPECT 100-105 DEGREE HIGHS TO BECOME
COMMONPLACE...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS DEPICTED BY LATEST MOS TRENDS.
BY NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE STORM TRACK ADVERTIZED BY BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS. THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME VERY SLIGHT LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE DAYTIME READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
RIGHT ON THRU THE EXTENDED. STILL NO RAIN ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO
TYPICAL UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER 17Z THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING SUNNY
SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERY VALUES WILL EXHIBIT
LITTLE CHANGE AND POOR RECOVERY IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND
STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE
AVIATION...INIGUEZ/MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 070938
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
239 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN CA/NV THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH SOME PRETTY SIMILAR PLEASANT WEATHER. THE JET STREAM WILL
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR THE OR BORDER. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING GUSTS
TO REACH ABOVE 25-30 MPH. THIS WILL BE MUCH LESS WINDY THAN WE HAVE
SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. EFFICIENT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID
60S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST
1-2 DEGREES FOR FRI. NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE
LIGHT NE FLOW. HOON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AND DRIER FOR PERIOD AS A MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS AREA
UNDER WEAK POSITIVE ANOMALY AND ON WARM SIDE OF UPPER JET. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WHICH
WERE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED. IN FACT THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE
CANADIAN NOW SHOWS A RIDGE AT F168. THE GFS/ECMWF DO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SYSTEM WORKING EASTWARD IN MEAN FLOW AND THROUGH THE PACNW/NRN
ROCKIES LATE IN PERIOD WHICH HELPS DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE REGION. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA WITH NO
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SUGGESTING EVEN A HINT OF QPF. POPS WERE REMOVED
FROM NORTHERN AREAS TUE/WED. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO BUMPED A BIT
ALTHOUGH KEPT WELL BELOW THE HIGH END OF THE MOS ENSEMBLES WHICH
WOULD BE MORE INDICATIVE OF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION OF MORE RIDGING.
HOHMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND NO ISSUES. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 070548
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1045 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA KEPT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO TODAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
COOL IN THOSE AREAS. A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED LIGHT RAIN EARLIER
TODAY. VENADO RECEIVED .12 INCHES OF RAIN BUT OTHERWISE AMOUNTS WERE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER TO THE SOUTH
AND OVER THE EAST BAY INTERIOR WHERE THERE WAS LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MORE SUN.
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST SO COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NIGHT BURNING OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER IN THE NORTH BAY DUE TO
LESS DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED A THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LIFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND AREA
TERMINALS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 18Z (11AM PDT). LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15
KT. KSFO WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 070430
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ONLY
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED ON THE DOPPLER OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN WESTERN SLOPES AND THE MODELS INDICATE THOSE WILL END
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK BREEZY DURING THE DAY FOR THE
VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SO I EXPECT TO SEE
SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN THURSDAYS AND A FEW SPOTS MAY BE BORDERING ON WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEY STAYING IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVR THE W SLPS DUE TO LCL FG AND
ISOLD -SHRA. THE -SHRA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT NR
LASSEN PARK AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY. THE LCL FG CONDITIONS IN MTNS
WILL IMPROVE AFT 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 070349
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
849 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GRADIENTS ARE
INDICATING AN INCREASING TREND IN THE WINDS FOR THE I-5
CORRIDOR AND LOS ANGELES AND VENTURE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHILE
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH SOME OVER SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY THIS EVENING. CURRENT KSBA-KSMX AND KSBA-KBFL SURFACE
GRADIENTS ARE SLACKENING AT THIS HOUR...BUT KLAX-KBFL GRADIENTS
ARE STILL QUITE STRONG THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN
FURTHER TONIGHT. WITH NAM-WRF STILL INDICATING A STRONG EVENT IN
PLACE FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT AND A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...HEADLINES AND HAZARDS WILL BE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW...BUT
SOME OF THE WINDS HAVE PUSHED UP SOME OF THE SETS OF SURF AT LOCAL
BEACHES. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR
HIGHER THAN NORMAL SURF.
A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AGAIN EXISTS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS NAM-WRF INDICATES STRONG 850 MB THERMAL AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM-
WRF SURFACE GRADIENTS INDICATE FURTHER TIGHTENING GRADIENTS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...TIMING IS
CRUCIAL FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS WINDS DO
INCREASE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE NORMAL WIND
PATTERNS. FOR THE CURRENT TIME...WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY BE AS
STRONG AS TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED FOR FUTURE
SHIFTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FRI NT INTO SAT BUT
STILL POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS.
IT WILL BE A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN MANY AREAS, WITH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THE ONLY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS BELOW 80. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MOST VALLEY AREAS
SHOULD EASILY GET TO 90 WITH A FEW OF THE WARMEST AREAS CLOSE TO
100. MODELS DO INDICATE AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE ON SAT SO COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING THEN, BUT MOST OF THE
INLAND COOLING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...GFS SCALED BACK A TAD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF FOR
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A LESS SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND. STILL
LOOKS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED RETURN OF
THE MARINE LYR, BUT IF THIS TREND IN THE GFS TOWARDS THE WARMER
ECMWF CONTINUES THEN HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT LOW
LVLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
(VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
THE USUAL FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST AND SRN SBA COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...07/0023Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KSMX...AND POSSIBLY KSBP AND KPRB. AT KSMX...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z AT KSBP AND KPRB. AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z
THURSDAY. AT KSBA...KBUR...KVNY...AND KLAX...MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT.
KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH
08Z TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
HALL/WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 070346
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
845 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA KEPT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO TODAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
COOL IN THOSE AREAS. A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED LIGHT RAIN EARLIER
TODAY. VENADO RECEIVED .12 INCHES OF RAIN BUT OTHERWISE AMOUNTS WERE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER TO THE SOUTH
AND OVER THE EAST BAY INTERIOR WHERE THERE WAS LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MORE SUN.
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST SO COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NIGHT BURNING OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER IN THE NORTH BAY DUE TO
LESS DAYTIME CLOUDCOVER. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. IFR AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AROUND 14Z (7AM PDT)
THURSDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS WHILE BAY AREA TERMINALS...KOAK...KSFO
AND KSJC TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR. ANTICIPATE THESES TERMINALS
TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z (11AM PDT). WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KREV 070332
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
832 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER JET CONTINUES
TO A SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL ALLOW THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. UPDATES
OUT SOON. MLF
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER JET REMAINS OVER FAR NRN CA/NV AND SOUTHERN OREGON
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. MAIN IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
PEAKING AT 40-45 MPH LOCALLY TO 50-55. GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS JET SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE MILE ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
WSTRN NV TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE THREAT. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BANKING INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH SOME
MAKING IT ACROSS MTNS AND INTO THE DESERTS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06Z BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A QUASI
STATIONARY JET KEEPS COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY GUSTY THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...BUT THE STRENGTH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT HAS
OCCURRED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT RIDGING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S FOR WESTERN NV AND 60S FOR VALLEYS IN THE SIERRA. AFTER THIS
EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE NO PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS NEAR TO 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MILNE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MONDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW THIS SCENARIO. THE EURO HOWEVER IS
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS IS. THE GFS DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EVEN INTO NRN MEXICO BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THE EURO SOLUTION IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE GFS...KEEPING
THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN TIER. WITH THE EURO BEING LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS IT IS ALSO NOTABLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE EURO TAKES THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS HANGS THE TROUGH BACK OVER IDAHO. THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NRN SIERRA AND
NWRN NEVADA ZONES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
BY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE FLAT RIDGE AND ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE KREV CWFA. O`HARA
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH 07/03Z. O`HARA
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070327
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
827 PM MST WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AFTERNOON AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIXED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS
WEAK STORM SYSTEMS PASS WELL TO THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
H5 RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAJA SPUR THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
ZONAL FLOW NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS CONUS. H5 PATTERN WILL
CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE BECOMES
BI-POLAR WITH ONE CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE OTHER
NEAR 30N 130W WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAIN WEST...THOUGH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE WHAT WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND BRINGS PERIODS
OF ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGHS OR LOWS...ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATTERN REALLY DOESN/T CHANGE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. BY NEXT
WEEK...MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
STRONGER WINDS MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...WHICH IS
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMO FOR MID-MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO
TYPICAL UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER 17Z THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING SUNNY
SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERY VALUES WILL EXHIBIT
LITTLE CHANGE AND POOR RECOVERY IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND
STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/ROGERS
AVIATION...INIGUEZ/MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
000
FXUS66 KHNX 070319
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
819 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...WIND SPEEDS AMENDED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT FOR LATER TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
FINE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A BIT STRONGER THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...AVERAGING ABOUT 15 MB BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
AND AROUND 7 MB BETWEEN BFL AND DAG. WEST WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES OF KERN COUNTY BUT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT AS
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY IN THIS REGION CONTINUE
UNTIL 11 PM.
OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
CA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A HEALTHY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING AT THE
SURFACE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOCALITIES...WIND SPEEDS IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY REFORM
ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
IDEA OF A FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CA COAST ON FRIDAY AND REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
ABOVE CLIMO AS SKIES RH PROGS ARE KEEPING MOISTURE WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA SUGGESTING SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A PAC LOW MOVING
INLAND INTO THE PAC NW ON MONDAY NIGHT...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF NOW EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF CENTRAL CA. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DRY WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW CLIMO
BY WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DURFEE/DS
AVN/FW...JEB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 070218
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...EXCEPT A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. WARMER THROUGH
THURSDAY. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CAUSE SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
INTO THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES INLAND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
IN THE WARMER INLAND VALLEYS AND NEAR 105 IN THE LOW DESERTS.
GRADUALLY COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND THEN A DEEPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. LOCAL STRONG GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
070300Z...CLEAR SKIES SO FAR THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON NKX
SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT AROUND 1400 FT MSL. IT WILL
LIKELY LOWER SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WITH STRATUS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 07Z WITH BASES AROUND 800 FT MSL AND VSBY AROUND 5SM.
STRATUS COULD EXTEND A FEW MILES INLAND BY 12Z THEN BREAK UP BY 15Z
THU MORNING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE
AVIATION...PG
000
FXUS66 KLOX 070023 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
523 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...NORTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPS THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS WARNING LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (WITH AN IMPRESSIVE -5.2 MB
SBA-SMX GRADIENT AT 1 PM TODAY) AND I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN THU NT AND EARLY FRI. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LA COUNTY VALLEYS
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, SO A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FRI NT INTO SAT BUT STILL
POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS.
IT WILL BE A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN MANY AREAS, WITH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THE ONLY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS BELOW 80. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MOST VALLEY AREAS
SHOULD EASILY GET TO 90 WITH A FEW OF THE WARMEST AREAS CLOSE TO
100. MODELS DO INDICATE AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE ON SAT SO COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING THEN, BUT MOST OF THE
INLAND COOLING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...GFS SCALED BACK A TAD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROF FOR NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A LESS SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND.
STILL LOOKS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED
RETURN OF THE MARINE LYR, BUT IF THIS TREND IN THE GFS TOWARDS THE
WARMER ECMWF CONTINUES THEN HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AT LOW LVLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS (VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGH THE USUAL FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST AND SRN SBA
COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...07/0023Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KSMX...AND POSSIBLY KSBP AND KPRB. AT KSMX...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z AT KSBP AND KPRB. AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. AT
KSBA...KBUR...KVNY...AND KLAX...MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT.
KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH
08Z TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 070022
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
515 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISTRICT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE READINGS FROM 24 HOURS AGO BY AS MUCH
AS 11 DEGREES WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EVEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAY AREA ARE
REPORTING SIMILAR TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S AND 70S COMMON. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT ARE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
ARE THOSE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED ALL
DAY. THE TAIL END OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SOME RADAR DATA PICKING
UP WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...NO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ACROSS INLAND VALLEY
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE OCEAN AS WELL AS NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND
INLAND HILLS. LATEST NAM12 DATA KEEP 925 MB WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR LESS
STRATUS AND FOG BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. IFR AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AROUND 14Z (7AM PDT)
THURSDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS WHILE BAY AREA TERMINALS...KOAK...KSFO
AND KSJC TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR. ANTICIPATE THESES TERMINALS
TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z (11AM PDT). WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 062236
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA WHICH
ACCOUNTS FOR THE DECREASED PRECIPITATION. DID REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE BURNEY...WESTERN PLUMAS...AND NORTHERN SIERRA
MOUNTAIN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN THE VALLEY TODAY RANGED 15-25 MPH FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOCAL NORTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE VALLEY COULD POSSIBLY GET UP TO 40 MPH BY FRIDAY IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A 10-12 MB GRADIENT FROM MEDFORD TO SAC.
JET CONTINUES A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE CA-OR BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PEAK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS VALLEY HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. JBB
.EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS THE NEARLY
ZONAL JET STREAM WILL BE AIMED TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A GULF
OF ALASKA SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...IT
WILL LIKELY BRING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK FROM ABOVE TO
NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK TO POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT TIMING AND POSITION ARE NOT
HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS RIGHT NOW. FOR THE MOST PART THE EXTENDED
FORECAST LOOKS DRY...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LEFT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DANG
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
STILL SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIERRA. LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
SHOWERS AS THEY SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE VALLEY AND TO 35 KT OVER SIERRA
RIDGETOPS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
VALLEY. DANG
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KEKA 062212
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
312 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGES AS SHOWN BY THE SATELLITE WITH
STATIONARY CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND HOVER IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR A CHANGE. SUNDAY THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN/RETREAT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRATUS THE CHANCE TO RETURN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THAT WILL HAPPEN. THE REASON IS BECAUSE
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF MORE RAIN TO NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS
OF OUR AREA. STROZ
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN GENERATING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD IMPORT SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOIST
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF CLEARING AND DRYING IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS BRISK NORTH WINDS RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DJB
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BY THIS
EVENING AS A TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES INTO THE
PAC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. SEAS HAVE BEEN DOMINATED BY A
SHORT PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 10 SECONDS. THE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE AND THEN A FRESH NW SWELL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON THU AND
FRIDAY AS NORTH WIND RAMP UP. THE NORTH WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE
FORCE STRENGTH...PRIMARILY IN THE OUTER WATERS...ON FRIDAY. TO
REDUCE THE HEADLINE CLUTTER AND SINCE IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT THE HEADLINE FOR A GALE WATCH FRI AND SAT. DJB
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO NOON PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS65 KREV 062140
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
230 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER JET REMAINS OVER FAR NRN CA/NV AND SOUTHERN OREGON
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. MAIN IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
PEAKING AT 40-45 MPH LOCALLY TO 50-55. GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS JET SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE MILE ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
WSTRN NV TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE THREAT. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BANKING INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH SOME
MAKING IT ACROSS MTNS AND INTO THE DESERTS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06Z BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A QUASI
STATIONARY JET KEEPS COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY GUSTY THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...BUT THE STRENGTH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT HAS
OCCURRED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT RIDGING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S FOR WESTERN NV AND 60S FOR VALLEYS IN THE SIERRA. AFTER THIS
EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE NO PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS NEAR TO 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MILNE
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MONDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW THIS SCENARIO. THE EURO HOWEVER IS
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS IS. THE GFS DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EVEN INTO NRN MEXICO BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THE EURO SOLUTION IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE GFS...KEEPING
THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN TIER. WITH THE EURO BEING LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS IT IS ALSO NOTABLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE EURO TAKES THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS HANGS THE TROUGH BACK OVER IDAHO. THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NRN SIERRA AND
NWRN NEVADA ZONES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
BY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE FLAT RIDGE AND ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE KREV CWFA. O`HARA
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH 07/03Z. O`HARA
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 062134
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
234 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISTRICT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE READINGS FROM 24 HOURS AGO BY AS MUCH
AS 11 DEGREES WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EVEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAY AREA ARE
REPORTING SIMILAR TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S AND 70S COMMON. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT ARE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
ARE THOSE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED ALL
DAY. THE TAIL END OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SOME RADAR DATA PICKING
UP WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...NO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ACROSS INLAND VALLEY
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE OCEAN AS WELL AS NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND
INLAND HILLS. LATEST NAM12 DATA KEEP 925 MB WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR LESS
STRATUS AND FOG BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST
TODAY AS THE TAIL END OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH THE BAY
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PER
CAMS...SOUNDINGS AND METAR OBS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH BAY
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY REGION WITH PREVAILING CIGS AOB 2K FEET.
THERE MAY BE AN OCCASIONAL CIGS BELOW 2K FEET WITH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE
BAY AREA THROUGH 20Z. AS THE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TO THE W TO NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH LOWER CIGS BELOW 2K AFTER 5Z TONIGHT. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY AM RUSH.
MONTEREY AREA...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH SOME CIGS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTEREY BAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD MRY AND SNS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP FOR
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: MM
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 062127
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS WEAK STORM SYSTEMS PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF BY FRIDAY IN THE LOW 100S...AND LIKELY
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHY OF ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE 105-110 RANGE
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
PATTERN REALLY DOESN/T CHANGE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. BY NEXT
WEEK...MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
STRONGER WINDS MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...WHICH IS
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMO FOR MID-MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...WITH LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. AFTER 17Z THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING SUNNY
SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERY VALUES WILL EXHIBIT
LITTLE CHANGE AND POOR RECOVERY IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND
STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ROGERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
000
FXUS66 KHNX 062100
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WHICH MOVED INTO THE PAC NW EARLIER
TODAY HELPED INCREASE SURFACE P-GRADS RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE KERN
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. IR INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OFF THE PAC
NW COAST NEAR 48N/128W WHICH WILL PUSH INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE ONSHORE SURFACE P-GRADS ACROSS OUR AREA AND BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE KERN MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS AND ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH 1100 PM THIS EVENING TO ADDRESS
THIS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM PUSHED INTO
NORCAL EARLIER TODAY AND BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80.
MEANWHILE...SKIES ACROSS OUR OUR AREA WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS THE
FRONT STALLED OUT BEFORE MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL CA. AS THE SECOND
LOW MOVES INLAND...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT OVER OUR AREA AS RH PROGS ARE INDICATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA SO ANY HIGH CLOUDS WHICH MAKE IT OUR WAY
SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO YDAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A
FEW DEG F ABOVE YDAY ELSEWHERE. 12Z WRF/GFS INDICATING THE STREAM
OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO OUR NORTH WILL SUPPRESS HEIGHTS A BIT ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALTHOUGH
STILL A TAD ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY MAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR IDEA OF A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE CA COAST ON FRIDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
CLIMO AS SKIES RH PROGS ARE KEEPING MOISTURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA SUGGESTING SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A PAC LOW MOVING
INLAND INTO THE PAC NW ON MONDAY NIGHT...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF NOW EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF CENTRAL CA. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DRY WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW CLIMO
BY WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 062058
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
200 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISTRICT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE READINGS FROM 24 HOURS AGO BY AS MUCH
AS 11 DEGREES WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EVEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAY AREA ARE
REPORTING SIMILAR TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S AND 70S COMMON. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT ARE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
ARE THOSE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED ALL
DAY. THE TAIL END OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SOME RADAR DATA PICKING
UP WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...NO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ACROSS INLAND VALLEY
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE OCEAN AS WELL AS NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND
INLAND HILLS. LATEST NAM12 DATA KEEP 925 MB WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR LESS
STRATUS AND FOG BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST
TODAY AS THE TAIL END OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH THE BAY
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PER
CAMS...SOUNDINGS AND METAR OBS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH BAY
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY REGION WITH PREVAILING CIGS AOB 2K FEET.
THERE MAY BE AN OCCASIONAL CIGS BELOW 2K FEET WITH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE
BAY AREA THROUGH 20Z. AS THE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TO THE W TO NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH LOWER CIGS BELOW 2K AFTER 5Z TONIGHT. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY AM RUSH.
MONTEREY AREA...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH SOME CIGS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTEREY BAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD MRY AND SNS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP FOR
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
SCA...PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: MM
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 062048
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...NORTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPS THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS WARNING LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE (WITH AN IMPRESSIVE -5.2 MB
SBA-SMX GRADIENT AT 1 PM TODAY) AND I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN THU NT AND EARLY FRI. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LA COUNTY VALLEYS
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, SO A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FRI NT INTO SAT BUT STILL
POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS.
IT WILL BE A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN MANY AREAS, WITH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THE ONLY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS BELOW 80. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MOST VALLEY AREAS
SHOULD EASILY GET TO 90 WITH A FEW OF THE WARMEST AREAS CLOSE TO
100. MODELS DO INDICATE AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE ON SAT SO COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING THEN, BUT MOST OF THE
INLAND COOLING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...GFS SCALED BACK A TAD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROF FOR NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A LESS SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND.
STILL LOOKS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED
RETURN OF THE MARINE LYR, BUT IF THIS TREND IN THE GFS TOWARDS THE
WARMER ECMWF CONTINUES THEN HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AT LOW LVLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS (VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGH THE USUAL FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST AND SRN SBA
COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...06/1800Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST AND
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A STRONG
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. MARINE
CLOUDS WITH TOPS AROUND 1.5KFT THIS MORNING WILL DESCEND AND CLOUDS
WILL MIX OUT AND RETREAT SOUTH.
KLAX...VERY LIKELY CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PERSIST...AS WELL AS
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PERSIST.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 062034
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...EXCEPT A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. WARMER THROUGH
THURSDAY. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY-SATURDAY)...THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN
INVERSION BASED BELOW 1000 FT WITH NW TO W WINDS ALOFT. WEAKENING
ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E WITH ABOUT 3 MB SAN-IPL AND WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS FROM THE N.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CAUSE SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
INTO THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES INLAND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
IN THE WARMER INLAND VALLEYS AND NEAR 105 IN THE LOW DESERTS.
GRADUALLY COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND THEN A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WRN STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND WITH A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. LOCAL STRONG GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
062030Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE SHALLOW TONIGHT. THAT WILL
MEAN FEWER LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING QUITE LATE TONIGHT AROUND
08-10Z...WITH BASES AROUND 800 FEET MSL AND VSBY AROUND 5SM WHERE IT
OCCURS NEAR THE COAST. BY 15Z THURSDAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...MM
000
FXUS66 KLOX 061742
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WINDS AND WARM TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. WINDS PICKED UP A NOTCH LAST NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AREA WHERE LOCALIZED GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH WERE REPORTED. IN THE SBA AREA WINDS WERE HIGHLY
VARIABLE WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S IN SOME PLACES AND VIRTUALLY CALM A
SHORT DISTANCE AWAY. THIS IS A COMMON PATTERN WITH SUNDOWNER WINDS.
MODELS INDICATE WINDS JUST AS STRONG, IF NOT STRONGER TONIGHT SO
WITH THE NEXT WIND PRODUCT UPDATE AT 19Z WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SBA AREA TONIGHT (A WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT) AND UPGRADE THE VENTURA/LA MTN ADVISORY TO A WARNING.
ALTHOUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE VENTURA/LA MTNS WILL BE WELL UNDER
WARNING (AND EVEN ADVISORY LEVEL), THE IMPACT OF 70 MPH WINDS ON THE
HEAVILY TRAVELED INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR JUSTIFIES THE WARNING.
TEMPS THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE THIS WEEK. SOUNDINGS INDICATED DECENT
WARMING TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY RATHER THAN
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE VALLEYS WHERE
MANY AREAS ARE UP 10-15 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. EARLIER UPDATE TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S THERE LOOKS GOOD.
HOW MUCH OF THIS WARMING REACHES THE COAST IS STILL UNCLEAR, BUT
PRETTY SURE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S TODAY. SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO AGREE ON MOST ASPECTS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT HGTS STILL STAY
FAIRLY HIGH. A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND. THERE IS NOTHING
AROUND TO LIFR UP A MARINE LAYER AND KEPT SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT HAVE ABSOLUTE CONFIDENCE IN THAT AS GALES IN THE
OUTER WATERS COULD SPIN UP AN EDDY.
GOOD COOLING BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE
PAC NW AND KNOCKING THE RIDGE AWAY AND SETTING UP BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS LOWERING HGTS TO 572DM BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO NEAR NORMAL AND A GOOD
VALLEY PENETRATING MARINE LAYER TO SPIN.
&&
.AVIATION...06/1800Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST AND
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A STRONG
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. MARINE LAYER
WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND 1.5KFT THIS MORNING WILL DESCEND AND CLOUDS
WILL MIX OUT AND RETREAT SOUTH.
KLAX...VERY LIKELY CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PERSIST...AS WELL AS
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PERSIST.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UNAVAILABLE.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD/RORKE
AVIATION...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 061741
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1041 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT WITH
AREAS OF FOG LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT IS
SEEING A MIXTURE OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTHWARD IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE GREATER SFO BAY AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE WEST BY THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO REFORM ACROSS MOST INLAND VALLEY AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN
THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE
CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
OVER THE OCEAN AS WELL AS NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND HILLS.
LATEST NAM12 DATA KEEP 925 MB WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR LESS STRATUS AND FOG
BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST
TODAY AS THE TAIL END OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH THE BAY
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PER
CAMS...SOUNDINGS AND METAR OBS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH BAY
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY REGION WITH PREVAILING CIGS AOB 2K FEET.
THERE MAY BE AN OCCASIONAL CIGS BELOW 2K FEET WITH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE
BAY AREA THROUGH 20Z. AS THE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TO THE W TO NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH LOWER CIGS BELOW 2K AFTER 5Z TONIGHT. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY AM RUSH.
MONTEREY AREA...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH SOME CIGS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTEREY BAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD MRY AND SNS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP FOR
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: MM
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 061732 AAA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1030 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATED...RADAR SHOWS RAIN IS MOVING TO THE EAST FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE
POP...CLOUD AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. STROZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT STEADY RAIN TO NW
CA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM OREGON TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS 1.3 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 290K SURFACE
SHOWS DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IT IS RATHER
QUICK MOVING AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY AND
ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST WHERE AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY TAPER OFF WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND THU AND
HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER NW CA. THE 0Z
ECMWF FORECASTS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER NW CA
SAT...WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DESPITE. BOTH MODELS
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUN AND REACHING NW CA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS VARY ON THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WETTER
SOLUTION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TH
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING THE COAST IS BRINGING
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AND FOG AND NOW LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO KEEP THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW BUNCHED UP FIRMLY AGAINST
THE COASTAL SITES MAINTAINING THE LOW CLOUDS. EVEN AS THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING (12-13ZISH) WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH TO BREAK THINGS UP A LITTLE...BUT FORECAST MODELS KEEP PLENTY
OF SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THUS
MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR 41N 127W WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS AROUND SUNRISE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTH WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. BEHIND THE PASSING SFC
FRONT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W THEN TO THE NORTH BY
THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EAST PAC. ON FRI
SUSTAINED SCA WINDS EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY BY FRI AFTN.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PZZ470...PZZ475 SCA WIND HAZ SEAS.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 061628
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ENTERING OUR CWA AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
SPOTTER REPORTED A MODERATE SHOWER ALONG HWY 299 WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG. PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE VALLEY UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TAPER
OFF WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
AND SLOPES OF THE SIERRA.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AS JET CONTINUES A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE CA-OR BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VALLEY HIGHS AROUND THE SAC
METRO REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING UPPER
80S ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VALLEY FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM MFR-SAC INCREASES.
JBB
.PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DRY SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY CONTINUING SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DROPS GOA LOW SOUTHEAST NEAR B.C. COAST MONDAY THEN
INLAND ACROSS PAC NW TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A RETURN TO AN OMEGA
PATTERN OVER THE EPAC NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING ALONG 140W AND
DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF ALONG THE WEST
COAST. PATTERN SUGGEST COOLING NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS SHORT WAVES DROP FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO LONG WAVE
POSITION. GRIDS POPULATED WITH CLIMO POPS ATTM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH KEEPS MAIN PRECIP THREAT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
AND SIERRA NEVADA.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORCAL TODAY WITH SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY
N OF A LINE FROM KUKI-KSVE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
SHWRS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED. FRONT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH IMPROVING CIGS 18Z-22Z EXCEPT LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING ALONG
THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERNEV. LCL SWLY WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN SIERNEV THRU 00Z THU.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 061610
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WINDS AND WARM TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. WINDS PICKED UP A NOTCH LAST NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AREA WHERE LOCALIZED GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH WERE REPORTED. IN THE SBA AREA WINDS WERE HIGHLY
VARIABLE WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S IN SOME PLACES AND VIRTUALLY CALM A
SHORT DISTANCE AWAY. THIS IS A COMMON PATTERN WITH SUNDOWNER WINDS.
MODELS INDICATE WINDS JUST AS STRONG, IF NOT STRONGER TONIGHT SO
WITH THE NEXT WIND PRODUCT UPDATE AT 19Z WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SBA AREA TONIGHT (A WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT) AND UPGRADE THE VENTURA/LA MTN ADVISORY TO A WARNING.
ALTHOUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE VENTURA/LA MTNS WILL BE WELL UNDER
WARNING (AND EVEN ADVISORY LEVEL), THE IMPACT OF 70 MPH WINDS ON THE
HEAVILY TRAVELED INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR JUSTIFIES THE WARNING.
TEMPS THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE THIS WEEK. SOUNDINGS INDICATED DECENT
WARMING TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY RATHER THAN
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE VALLEYS WHERE
MANY AREAS ARE UP 10-15 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. EARLIER UPDATE TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S THERE LOOKS GOOD.
HOW MUCH OF THIS WARMING REACHES THE COAST IS STILL UNCLEAR, BUT
PRETTY SURE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S TODAY. SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO AGREE ON MOST ASPECTS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT HGTS STILL STAY
FAIRLY HIGH. A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND. THERE IS NOTHING
AROUND TO LIFR UP A MARINE LAYER AND KEPT SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT HAVE ABSOLUTE CONFIDENCE IN THAT AS GALES IN THE
OUTER WATERS COULD SPIN UP AN EDDY.
GOOD COOLING BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE
PAC NW AND KNOCKING THE RIDGE AWAY AND SETTING UP BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS LOWERING HGTS TO 572DM BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO NEAR NORMAL AND A GOOD
VALLEY PENETRATING MARINE LAYER TO SPIN.
&&
.AVIATION...06/1115Z
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COVERS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH LIFR CONDS. VERY
WEAK MARINE CLOUDS APPROACHING KLGB WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MAKING IT TO KLGB. VERY STRONG WINDS IN AND AROUND MTNS WITH OCNL
MDT TURBC. MTN WAVE ACTIVITY NEAR KSBA WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SVR TURBC AND LLWS.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS FROM
14Z TO 17Z.
KBUR...EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-070.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD/RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 061602
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
901 AM MST WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. VERY WARM
DAYTIME READINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH 100
DEGREES F OR GREATER AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA. UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AND WILL LEAD TO HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CWA.
THUS...MODEST WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 100S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW RECORDS...WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE 105-110 RANGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. INHERITED MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE IN
FANTASTIC SHAPE SO NO UPDATES REQUIRED ATTM.
EXCERPTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVES PASSING BY WELL TO THE N WILL NUDGE HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR SOME VERY MINOR COOLING...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER
OF TWO OR THREE DEGREES. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINTING AT SOME
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IN STORE OVER THE WRN STATES AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE YET ANOTHER WINDY...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL TAKE ANY COOLING WE CAN GET THIS TIME OF THE SPRING TO BE
SURE...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW UNITED STATES DRY AND STABLE.
ALL AIRFIELDS WITHIN THE PHX CWA WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BLOWING FROM NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS. SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...WITH OCNL AFTN GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF KIWA/KPHX.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE SW UNITED STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTENED
FURTHER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASSING WELL TO THE N...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO COOL US OFF MUCH AT
ALL...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 DEGREES SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL UNDER 15 PCNT EACH AFTERNOON WITHIN
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...BUT WITH ONLY GENLY LIGHT UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ROGERS/ESTLE
AVIATION...ESTLE
FIRE WEATHER...ESTLE
000
FXUS66 KHNX 061600
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW
BRINGING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. WITH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...SOME OF THE COOLER AIR PUSHED INLAND INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES IN
THE VALLEY ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 2-4 DEG 4 BELOW YDAY WHILE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEG F ABOVE YDAY AT THIS
TIME MOST LOCATIONS AS THE AIRMASS WARMED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME UPSLOPE STRATO-CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACORSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IR AND
SURFACE OBS DEPICT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORCAL..BUT THE 12Z WRF IS INDICATING IT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON FOR OUR AREA TODAY. WITH P-GRADS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY UP
FOR THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL
EVENT. WINDS LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR TODAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A TOUGH CALL BECAUSE OF THE MARINE INFLUENCE IN THE
VALLEY. WILL LET THE GOING FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW.
12Z WRF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE STREAMS INTO THE PAC NW ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH
P-GRAD ORIENTATION SUGGESTS WINDS WON/T BE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY
AS TODAY. WRF/GFS/ECMWF INDICATING AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
CA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
AND A WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK ON SUNDAY
THEN PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND TO OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 061600
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
900 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT WITH
AREAS OF FOG LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT IS
SEEING A MIXTURE OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTHWARD IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE GREATER SFO BAY AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE WEST BY THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO REFORM ACROSS MOST INLAND VALLEY AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN
THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE
CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
OVER THE OCEAN AS WELL AS NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND HILLS.
LATEST NAM12 DATA KEEP 925 MB WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR LESS STRATUS AND FOG
BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AND S.F.BAY AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. STRATUS TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PASS
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION BRUSHING THE NORTH
S.F.BAY COUNTIES AROUND MID-DAY. IFR CIGS WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
VSBY PREVAILING AROUND THE AREA...LOW IFR NORTH S.F.BAY COUNTIES IN
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO 18Z.
KSFO AND VICINITY...IFR CIGS WITH VSBYS 4-6SM THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING INCLUDING THE BRIDGE APPROACHES. WINDS WEST 8 TO 13 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TURNING SW 19Z-22Z IN RESPONSE TO
THE FRONT PASSAGE...AND BACK TO NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20KTS BY 23Z.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO BREAK BY 19Z BUT CIGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVELS WITH INCREASING
CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE BY 19Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS AREA IFR
CIGS WITH VSBYS 4-6SM...LOCALLY LESS THAN 2SM BR...TIL 19Z THEN
BREAKING TO VFR SCT OCNL MVFR BKN012-020 AND SOME CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE
AFT 19Z. WEST WINDS 8-13KTS. EXCEPTION TO CLOUD COVER IS THAT IN AND
IMMEDIATELY AROUND KMRY WHERE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE BACK OVER KMRY AFT 14Z
TIL 18Z TIME PERIOD WHEN IFR BKN-OVC CIG WILL LIFT TO VFR OCNL MVFR.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 061533
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...EXCEPT A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. WARMER THROUGH
THURSDAY. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING. CLEAR ELSEWHERE. THE 12Z
NKX SOUNDING HAD A WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 1100 FT WITH NW TO W
WINDS ALOFT. WEAKENING ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E WITH ABOUT 5 MB
SAN-IPL AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM THE N.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CAUSE SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
INTO THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES INLAND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
IN THE WARMER INLAND VALLEYS AND NEAR 105 IN THE LOW DESERTS.
GRADUALLY COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND THEN A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WRN STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND WITH A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. LOCAL STRONG GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
061530Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS ALREADY SCATTERING OUT. THE MARINE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE SHALLOW TODAY. THAT WILL MEAN FEWER
LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING QUITE LATE TONIGHT AROUND 08-10Z...WITH LOWER
BASES AROUND 800 FEET MSL AND VSBY AROUND 5SM WHERE IT OCCURS NEAR
THE COAST. BY 15Z THURSDAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...MM
000
FXUS66 KMTR 061233
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
530 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERN IS
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH BAY TODAY AND THEN WARMING AND
DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EUREKA RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
FALLING UP IN CRESCENT CITY. ECHOES OF NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
MENDOCINO COUNTY AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER THE NORTH COAST TODAY. THE NAM MODEL BASICALLY KEEPS RAIN
CONFINED NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE
RAIN DOWN TO ABOUT THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE. HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST AND LEFT 30-40 POPS FOR THE NORTH BAY
WITH 20 POPS AROUND THE SF PENINSULA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FOG REMAINS FOR DRIZZLE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE COAST AND
COASTAL HILLS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE LATER TODAY SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST. ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY SHOULDN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH LATEST QPF ESTIMATES OF 0.15
OF FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND ONLY 0.01-0.05 FOR THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES END BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG COLD
FRONT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TONIGHT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE STATE. UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK WITH MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AND
WEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOST
FOLKS WILL NOTE THE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THAT DEVELOP. THE NORTH
WIND FLOW WILL FINALLY USHER IN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS. RIGHT NOW WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE
OCEAN...ALONG THE COAST...IN THE HILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR EAST
BAY BUTTING UP ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE MODEL DATA INDICATES
SOME STRONG DELTA WINDS.
NORTH WIND FLOW WITH THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND TEMPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 60S AT THE COAST.
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF NOTE.
SHOULD BE LIGHT WINDS...MINIMAL STRATUS AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BOTH BAYSIDE AND INLAND.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH RETURN OF
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS...COASTAL STRATUS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AND S.F.BAY AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. STRATUS TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PASS
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION BRUSHING THE NORTH
S.F.BAY COUNTIES AROUND MID-DAY. IFR CIGS WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
VSBY PREVAILING AROUND THE AREA...LOW IFR NORTH S.F.BAY COUNTIES IN
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO 18Z.
KSFO AND VICINITY...IFR CIGS WITH VSBYS 4-6SM THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING INCLUDING THE BRIDGE APPROACHES. WINDS WEST 8 TO 13 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TURNING SW 19Z-22Z IN RESPONSE TO
THE FRONT PASSAGE...AND BACK TO NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20KTS BY 23Z.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO BREAK BY 19Z BUT CIGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVELS WITH INCREASING
CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE BY 19Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS AREA IFR
CIGS WITH VSBYS 4-6SM...LOCALLY LESS THAN 2SM BR...TIL 19Z THEN
BREAKING TO VFR SCT OCNL MVFR BKN012-020 AND SOME CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE
AFT 19Z. WEST WINDS 8-13KTS. EXCEPTION TO CLOUD COVER IS THAT IN AND
IMMEDIATELY AROUND KMRY WHERE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE BACK OVER KMRY AFT 14Z
TIL 18Z TIME PERIOD WHEN IFR BKN-OVC CIG WILL LIFT TO VFR OCNL MVFR.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 061202
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
445 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
88-D MOSAIC SHOWING FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIP ALONG THE
NORTHWEST CAL COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR THIS MORNING WHILE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENING SOUTH OF 40N ON IR IMAGERY. FRONT IS
MODELED BY NAM/GFS TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. GFS SHOWS
AREA OF H7-5 QVEC THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY. COOLER TEMPS TODAY UNDER INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER INTERIOR NORCAL REMAINS ON WARM SIDE OF JET
THROUGH EVENT SO SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED AROUND OR ABOVE PASS LEVELS.
LOCAL WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INLAND BEHIND FRONT. AMS BEGINS TO WARM THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS
INCREASE OVER NORCAL. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE N-S ORIENTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN NE-SW FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH
OREGON INTO GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK SO EXPECT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING
AS 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. MOS GUIDANCE
FORECASTING CENTRAL VALLEY TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH
WARMER NAM GUIDANCE PUSHING VALLEY MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S.
DRY SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY CONTINUING SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DROPS GOA LOW SOUTHEAST NEAR B.C. COAST MONDAY THEN
INLAND ACROSS PAC NW TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A RETURN TO AN OMEGA
PATTERN OVER THE EPAC NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING ALONG 140W AND
DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF ALONG THE WEST
COAST. PATTERN SUGGEST COOLING NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS SHORT WAVES DROP FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO LONG WAVE
POSITION. GRIDS POPULATED WITH CLIMO POPS ATTM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH KEEPS MAIN PRECIP THREAT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
AND SIERRA NEVADA.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
WKNG FRONTAL SYS WL MV THRU NORCAL TDA WITH SCT -SHRA PSBL N OF A
LINE FROM KUKI-KSVE. MVFR CIGS PSBL WITH SHWRS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
XPCTD. FRONT WKNS FURTHER THIS AFTN WITH IMPRVG CIGS 18Z-22Z XCP LCL
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING ALG THE W SLPS NRN SIERNEV. LCL SWLY WIND
GUSTS 25-35 KTS HYR TRRN NRN SIERNEV THRU 00Z THU.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPSR 061142 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. VERY WARM
DAYTIME READINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MODEL RH PROGS RELECT A VERY DRY AMS FROM THE SURFACE
ALL THE WAY UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL...SO THERE SHOULD BE NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES ON TAP INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVES PASSING BY WELL TO THE N WILL NUDGE HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR SOME VERY MINOR COOLING...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER
OF TWO OR THREE DEGREES. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINTING AT SOME
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IN STORE OVER THE WRN STATES AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE YET ANOTHER WINDY...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL TAKE ANY COOLING WE CAN GET THIS TIME OF THE SPRING TO BE
SURE...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW UNITED STATES DRY AND STABLE.
ALL AIRFIELDS WITHIN THE PHX CWA WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BLOWING FROM NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS. SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...WITH OCNL AFTN GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF KIWA/KPHX.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE SW UNITED STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTENED
FURTHER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASSING WELL TO THE N...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO COOL US OFF MUCH AT
ALL...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 DEGREES SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL UNDER 15 PCNT EACH AFTERNOON WITHIN
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...BUT WITH ONLY GENLY LIGHT UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE
AVIATION...ESTLE
FIRE WEATHER...ESTLE
000
FXUS66 KLOX 061114
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...
NW WIND EVENT WILL PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT IS NICELY ALIGNED
WITH A STRONG NW TO SW SFC GRADIENT. BETTER SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT 65 MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SBA COUNTY AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM 3PM
TO 9AM THURSDAY. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN THE MTNS OF VTA AND LA
COUNTIES AND A NEW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE SANTA CLARITA VLY MAY
NEED ADVISORIES AS WELL. 586DM HGTS OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW VERY WARM
TEMPS INLAND BUT THERE WILL BE SEA BREEZES SO THE COASTS WILL STAY
RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS THE LOWER 90S.
CONTINUED WINDY TONIGHT. THE FOOTHILLS AND THE WINDY AREAS WILL SEE
LOWS FALL ONLY TO THE LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM AS TODAY. BUT THERE IS LESS SUBSIDENCE
AND THIS WILL DROP THE WINDS BY AROUND 10 MPH. THE SEABREEZES WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS LOW. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXED OUT
SO ALL AREAS WILL BE SUNNY.
FRIDAY WILL BE LESS WINDY AS THE LAX-BFL GRADS TREND ONSHORE BY
ABOUT 1.5 MB. THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS SOME AS WELL. HGTS DROP A
COUPLE OF DM AND THE GRAD TO KDAG INCREASES WHICH WILL PROMOTE A
BETTER SEABREEZE. THESE TWO ITEMS WILL COMBINE TO DUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SEE THE BIGGEST COOLING.
ONE THING OF INTEREST ON FRIDAY THE NAM HAS A SLAMMING OFFSHORE
EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN A LITTLE
WONKY OF LATE WITH ITS LOW LEVEL FCST AND HAVE DISCOUNTED IT FOR
NOW. STILL HAVE TO BE WATCHFUL BECAUSE IF IT DOES HAPPENED BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED ABOUT A 15 DEGREE INCREASE.
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO AGREE ON MOST ASPECTS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT HGTS STILL STAY
FAIRLY HIGH. A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND. THERE IS NOTHING
AROUND TO LIFR UP A MARINE LAYER AND KEPT SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT HAVE ABSOLUTE CONFIDENCE IN THAT AS GALES IN THE
OUTER WATERS COULD SPIN UP AN EDDY.
GOOD COOLING BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE
PAC NW AND KNOCKING THE RIDGE AWAY AND SETTING UP BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS LOWERING HGTS TO 572DM BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO NEAR NORMAL AND A GOOD
VALLEY PENETRATING MARINE LAYER TO SPIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
06/1115Z
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COVERS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH LIFR CONDS. VERY
WEAK MARINE CLOUDS APPROACHING KLGB WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MAKING IT TO KLGB. VERY STRONG WINDS IN AND AROUND MTNS WITH OCNL
MDT TURBC. MTN WAVE ACTIVITY NEAR KSBA WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SVR TURBC AND LLWS.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS FROM
14Z TO 17Z.
KBUR...EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-070.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 061107
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
405 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERN IS
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH BAY TODAY AND THEN WARMING AND
DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EUREKA RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
FALLING UP IN CRESCENT CITY. ECHOES OF NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
MENDOCINO COUNTY AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER THE NORTH COAST TODAY. THE NAM MODEL BASICALLY KEEPS RAIN
CONFINED NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE
RAIN DOWN TO ABOUT THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE. HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST AND LEFT 30-40 POPS FOR THE NORTH BAY
WITH 20 POPS AROUND THE SF PENINSULA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FOG REMAINS FOR DRIZZLE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE COAST AND
COASTAL HILLS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE LATER TODAY SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST. ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY SHOULDN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH LATEST QPF ESTIMATES OF 0.15
OF FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND ONLY 0.01-0.05 FOR THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES END BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG COLD
FRONT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TONIGHT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE STATE. UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK WITH MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AND
WEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOST
FOLKS WILL NOTE THE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THAT DEVELOP. THE NORTH
WIND FLOW WILL FINALLY USHER IN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS. RIGHT NOW WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE
OCEAN...ALONG THE COAST...IN THE HILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR EAST
BAY BUTTING UP ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE MODEL DATA INDICATES
SOME STRONG DELTA WINDS.
NORTH WIND FLOW WITH THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND TEMPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 60S AT THE COAST.
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF NOTE.
SHOULD BE LIGHT WINDS...MINIMAL STRATUS AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BOTH BAYSIDE AND INLAND.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH RETURN OF
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS...COASTAL STRATUS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AND S.F.BAY AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. STRATUS TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PASS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION BRUSHING THE NORTH
S.F.BAY COUNTIES AROUND MID-DAY. IFR CIGS WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
VSBY PREVAILING AROUND THE AREA...LOW IFR NORTH S.F.BAY COUNTIES IN
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO 18Z.
KSFO AND VICINITY...IFR CIGS WITH VSBYS 4-6SM THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING INCLUDING THE BRIDGE APPROACHES. WINDS WEST 8 TO 13 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TURNING SW 19Z-22Z IN RESPONSE TO
THE FRONT PASSAGE...AND BACK TO NW BY 23Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO BREAK
BY 19Z BUT CIGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO
CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVELS WITH INCREASING CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE BY 19Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WITH VSBYS 4-6SM TIL 19Z THEN
BREAKING TO VFR SCT OCNL MVFR BKN012-020 AND SOME CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE
AFT 19Z. WEST WINDS 8-13KTS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 061053
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
350 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERN IS
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH BAY TODAY AND THEN WARMING AND
DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EUREKA RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
FALLING UP IN CRESCENT CITY. ECHOES OF NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
MENDOCINO COUNTY AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER THE NORTH COAST TODAY. THE NAM MODEL BASICALLY KEEPS RAIN
CONFINED NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE
RAIN DOWN TO ABOUT THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE. HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST AND LEFT 30-40 POPS FOR THE NORTH BAY
WITH 20 POPS AROUND THE SF PENINSULA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FOG REMAINS FOR DRIZZLE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE COAST AND
COASTAL HILLS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE LATER TODAY SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST. ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY SHOULDN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH LATEST QPF ESTIMATES OF 0.15
OF FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND ONLY 0.01-0.05 FOR THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES END BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG COLD
FRONT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TONIGHT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE STATE. UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK WITH MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AND
WEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOST
FOLKS WILL NOTE THE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THAT DEVELOP. THE NORTH
WIND FLOW WILL FINALLY USHER IN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS. RIGHT NOW WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE
OCEAN...ALONG THE COAST...IN THE HILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR EAST
BAY BUTTING UP ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE MODEL DATA INDICATES
SOME STRONG DELTA WINDS.
NORTH WIND FLOW WITH THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND TEMPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 60S AT THE COAST.
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF NOTE.
SHOULD BE LIGHT WINDS...MINIMAL STRATUS AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BOTH BAYSIDE AND INLAND.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH RETURN OF
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS...COASTAL STRATUS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS
OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS 300-500 FEET. WITH MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO 500-1000 FEET BY MORNING WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
3 MILES...1 MILE OR LESS AT STS. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECASTS SHOW LOW CEILINGS BURNING OFF
AROUND 19-20Z FOR THE SFO APPROACH ZONE AND 18Z ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5-7 KT EXPECTED AT SJC DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SFO AND OAK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: W PI/GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 061046
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...
NW WIND EVENT WILL PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT IS NICELY ALIGNED
WITH A STRONG NW TO SW SFC GRADIENT. BETTER SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT 65 MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SBA COUNTY AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM 3PM
TO 9AM THURSDAY. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN THE MTNS OF VTA AND LA
COUNTIES AND A NEW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE ANTELOPE VLY AND THE SANTA CLARITA VLY MAY
NEED ADVISORIES AS WELL. 586DM HGTS OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW VERY WARM
TEMPS INLAND BUT THERE WILL BE SEA BREEZES SO THE COASTS WILL STAY
RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS THE LOWER 90S.
CONTINUED WINDY TONIGHT. THE FOOTHILLS AND THE WINDY AREAS WILL SEE
LOWS FALL ONLY TO THE LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM AS TODAY. BUT THERE IS LESS SUBSIDENCE
AND THIS WILL DROP THE WINDS BY AROUND 10 MPH. THE SEABREEZES WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS LOW. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXED OUT
SO ALL AREAS WILL BE SUNNY.
FRIDAY WILL BE LESS WINDY AS THE LAX-BFL GRADS TREND ONSHORE BY
ABOUT 1.5 MB. THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS SOME AS WELL. HGTS DROP A
COUPLE OF DM AND THE GRAD TO KDAG INCREASES WHICH WILL PROMOTE A
BETTER SEABREEZE. THESE TWO ITEMS WILL COMBINE TO DUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SEE THE BIGGEST COOLING.
ONE THING OF INTEREST ON FRIDAY THE NAM HAS A SLAMMING OFFSHORE
EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN A LITTLE
WONKY OF LATE WITH ITS LOW LEVEL FCST AND HAVE DISCOUNTED IT FOR
NOW. STILL HAVE TO BE WATCHFUL BECAUSE IF IT DOES HAPPENED BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED ABOUT A 15 DEGREE INCREASE.
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO AGREE ON MOST ASPECTS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT HGTS STILL STAY
FAIRLY HIGH. A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND. THERE IS NOTHING
AROUND TO LIFR UP A MARINE LAYER AND KEPT SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT HAVE ABSOLUTE CONFIDENCE IN THAT AS GALES IN THE
OUTER WATERS COULD SPIN UP AN EDDY.
GOOD COOLING BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE
PAC NW AND KNOCKING THE RIDGE AWAY AND SETTING UP BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS LOWERING HGTS TO 572DM BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO NEAR NORMAL AND A GOOD
VALLEY PENETRATING MARINE LAYER TO SPIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
05/1915Z
KLAX...
KBUR...
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KEKA 061030
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT STEADY RAIN TO NW
CA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM OREGON TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS 1.3 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 290K SURFACE
SHOWS DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IT IS RATHER
QUICK MOVING AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY AND
ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST WHERE AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY TAPER OFF WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND THU AND
HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER NW CA. THE 0Z
ECMWF FORECASTS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER NW CA
SAT...WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DESPITE. BOTH MODELS
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUN AND REACHING NW CA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS VARY ON THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WETTER
SOLUTION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TH
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING THE COAST IS BRINGING
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AND FOG AND NOW LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO KEEP THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW BUNCHED UP FIRMLY AGAINST
THE COASTAL SITES MAINTAINING THE LOW CLOUDS. EVEN AS THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING (12-13ZISH) WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH TO BREAK THINGS UP A LITTLE...BUT FORECAST MODELS KEEP PLENTY
OF SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THUS
MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR 41N 127W WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS AROUND SUNRISE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTH WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. BEHIND THE PASSING SFC
FRONT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W THEN TO THE NORTH BY
THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EAST PAC. ON FRI
SUSTAINED SCA WINDS EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY BY FRI AFTN.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PZZ470...PZZ475 SCA WIND HAZ SEAS.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 061025
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. VERY WARM
DAYTIME READINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MODEL RH PROGS RELECT A VERY DRY AMS FROM THE SURFACE
ALL THE WAY UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL...SO THERE SHOULD BE NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES ON TAP INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVES PASSING BY WELL TO THE N WILL NUDGE HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR SOME VERY MINOR COOLING...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER
OF TWO OR THREE DEGREES. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINTING AT SOME
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IN STORE OVER THE WRN STATES AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE YET ANOTHER WINDY...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL TAKE ANY COOLING WE CAN GET THIS TIME OF THE SPRING TO BE
SURE...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...LEADING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT DRAINAGE
WINDS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...NEAR
KPHX AND KIWA...WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AND INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NEAR
KBLH...KNYL AND KIPL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY...STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AT THEIR WARMEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE LOWERING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THRU THE WEEKEND...
STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL. LOCAL BREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EACH DAY. NO RAIN
IN SIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WE ADVANCE DEEPER INTO WHAT IS OUR
NORMALLY VERY DRY SEASON.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...ESTLE
000
FXUS65 KREV 061019
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST THIS MORNING...SEEN CLEARLY ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE NV/OR BORDER...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE REGION BEING
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AGAIN
TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH.
LOCALLY WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 395...SUCH AS WASHOE
VALLEY...CAN EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR BOTH LAKE TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH MAKING ROUGH LAKE
CONDITIONS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISTRICTS TODAY...WE WILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE
NORTHWARD...AS WELL AS INTO INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS FOR WESTERN NV SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE...WITH
STRONG SHADOWING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES
EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL INCREASE BY A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED BY THU-FRI. THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT
TIGHT WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI..BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS OF LATE. HOON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH TROUGHINESS/UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE ECMWF/GFS FROM THEIR
RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC RUNS 24 HOURS PRIOR. THE CANADIAN HAS
REVERSED COURSE ON THE OTHER HAND TO A FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW MUCH LIKE THE EARLIER ECMWF/GFS RUNS. THE GEFS/NAEFS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 7 AND EXPLAINS THE
CHANGES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND MAGNITUDE IS LOW. THE
MORE GRADUAL ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BEST ROAD TO TAKE FOR NOW WHICH
BRINGS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY THE MAIN TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW TO NEVADA BY TUESDAY WILL BE DISREGARDED FOR NOW. POPS
WERE INTRODUCED TO NORTHWEST AREAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH A WARM SPRINGTIME
WEEKEND AHEAD FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL COOLING BY TUESDAY. HOHMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS 30-35KT AT AREA TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RIDGE GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 60KT.
HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 060930
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE SKIES ACROSS
THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW STATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB HAVE LIGHTENED A BIT...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SHOWED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...CARRYING ANY MARINE AIR UP THE VALLEY.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAD BEEN UP AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES AT
05Z...WERE RUNNING NEAR PERSISTENCE AT 08Z. CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY
HIGHS TUESDAY WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND SHOULD BE A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THE MARINE AIR OVER THE VALLEY MIXES OUT.
WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS REACHED ADVISORY
LEVELS AT A FEW STATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA TO TIGHTEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM 21Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY FOR THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE UPPER4-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. SATURDAY NOW
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND APPROACHES THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS SUNDAY...AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...SOME
UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...AND AN ONSHORE SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA AND THE PASSES OF THE COASTAL RANGE
INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN OVER THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY...
WHICH WILL SEEM COOL AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 060848
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER INLAND FROM THE COAST...THE
COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. THE HIGH
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR GRADUALLY COOLER DAYS THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
DESERT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY AND THU AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
IN THE HIGH DESERTS...AND FROM 100 TO 107 IN THE LOWER DESERTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH IN THE DESERTS ON
THURSDAY (105 AT TRM...107 AT PSP). RECORDS MAY ALSO BE REACHED IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS (91 AT RAMONA)...BUT THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS OVER
THE COASTAL ZONES WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AT THE COAST AND
THE 70S JUST INLAND. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...DENSE IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.
ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND A STRONGER SEA BREEZE AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
WEST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE MTN AND DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW SUGGEST A COOLING
TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LARGE 545 UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE PACNW. AS THE LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CALIF IT WILL CONTINUE
THE COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK...AND COULD CAUSE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS
OVER THE MTS-DES ON TUE AND WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
AVIATION...
060800Z...MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FT. AREAS OF BROKEN STRATUS WITH
BASES AROUND 1K FT MSL MAINLY 5-10SM INLAND. AREAS OF VSBY 3-5SM AND
LOCAL 1-3SM AND LOWER POSSIBLE ON THE MESAS THIS MORNING. STRATUS
AND FOG WILL CLEAR AROUND 16Z THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO
LOWER TODAY WITH LOWER VSBY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS IN LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 8Z OR LATER AND
CLEAR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS AT KPSP AND KTRM WILL BE
NEAR 40C TODAY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE
AVIATION...WHITLOW
000
FXUS66 KMTR 060543
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
855 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN
END OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATING
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH BAY
REGION. THE FLAT RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THAT WILL TAKE US THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THEIR SOLUTION AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE FLAT RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN TIMING
DIFFERENCE ARE TO GREAT TO NAIL DOWN THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THE GFS
IS FALLING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN HOWEVER
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND THE TIMING IS STILL VERY
DIFFERENT. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN SWINGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOW THE LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS
OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS 300-500 FEET. WITH MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO 500-1000 FEET BY MORNING WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
3 MILES...1 MILE OR LESS AT STS. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECASTS SHOW LOW CEILINGS BURNING OFF
AROUND 19-20Z FOR THE SFO APPROACH ZONE AND 18Z ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5-7 KT EXPECTED AT SJC DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SFO AND OAK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 060449
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING
BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY PRODUCING SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS
FAR SOUTH AS SACRAMENTO IN THE AFTERNOON BUT I THINK SACRAMENTO
ITSELF WILL STAY DRY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHILE IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IT CLEAR OUT BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...CLEARER
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ENTRAINED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW STILL INTO CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ESCAPE THE GRIP OF THE
PARENT LOW AND TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THIS SLOWED FROM THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME FORECASTED
YESTERDAY. EVEN SO...THIS WEAK WAVE IS SO WEAK THAT WE SHOULD
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDINESS. AFTERWARD THE PATTERN
STAYS QUITE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC HINT. WE TENDED TO GO
ALONG WITH HPC AND DISCOUNTED THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS IT BRINGS A
539DM CLOSED LOW INTO OREGON AND NRN CAL. THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO
DRAMATIC AS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. THEREFORE...WE
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE VALLEY AND 50S TO 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. JMC
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTRIBUTE MVFR/IFR CIG AFT 12Z WED OVER NRN SAC VALLEY AND MVFR
AFT 14Z OVER SRN SAC VALLEY. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 17-19Z SRN
AND NRN SAC VALLEY.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KHNX 060420
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
915 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.UPDATE...WIND SPEEDS LOWERED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT FOR TONIGHT. SKY COVER DECREASED IN THE KERN CO DESERT...
SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BUT INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE BETWEEN SFO AND LAS SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY HAVE DECREASED BY ABOUT 3 MB BETWEEN BFL AND DAG.
AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT AFTER BEING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME LOCALITIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS TREND...THE DECISION WAS MADE
TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WED MORNING BUT LEAVE IT IN EFFECT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS PUSH THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER NORTH AND ALLOW A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT TO RESIDE OVER CENTRAL
CA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THIS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW.
BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS DEEPEN THIS TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BRING THE RETURN OF A MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY
THANKS TO A HEALTHY ONSHORE FLOW. DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ095-098-
099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 060415
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
915 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.UPDATE...WIND SPEEDS LOWERED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT FOR TONIGHT. SKY COVER DECREASED IN THE KERN CO DESERT...
SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BUT INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE BETWEEN SFO AND LAS SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY HAVE DECREASED BY ABOUT 3 MB BETWEEN BFL AND DAG.
AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT AFTER BEING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME LOCALITIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS TREND...THE DECISION WAS MADE
TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WED MORNING BUT LEAVE IT IN EFFECT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS PUSH THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER NORTH AND ALLOW A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT TO RESIDE OVER CENTRAL
CA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THIS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW.
BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS DEEPEN THIS TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BRING THE RETURN OF A MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY
THANKS TO A HEALTHY ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ095-098-
099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 060410
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER INLAND FROM THE COAST...THE
COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. THE HIGH
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR GRADUALLY COOLER DAYS THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
THE WIND BLEW HARD IN THE DESERTS TODAY...BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHTER
WED AND THU AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS NORTH. HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL
REPLACE THE HIGHER WINDS WITH RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S IN THE HIGH DESERTS...AND FROM 100 TO 107 IN THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH IN THE
DESERTS ON THURSDAY (105 AT TRM...107 AT PSP). THE AFTERNOONS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
TODAY.
RECORDS MAY ALSO BE REACHED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS (91 AT
RAMONA)...BUT THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AT THE COAST AND THE 70S JUST INLAND. THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...DENSE IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.
ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND A STRONGER SEA BREEZE AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
WEST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE MTN AND DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER DIFFERENT DEGREES OF
DEEPENING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF...BUT BOTH SUGGEST A COOLING
TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
060300Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS NEAR 1200 FEET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS OFF
THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS EVENING. AREAS OF STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO
THE COAST BY 06Z AND SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE WESTERN INLAND
VALLEYS AND SOME MESA AREAS OVERNIGHT. SOME MESA AIRPORTS SUCH AS
KSDM COULD RECEIVE LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. BREAK UP
ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE FL250...
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS AT KPSP AND KTRM WILL BE NEAR 40C ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH DESERT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. SEE LAXNPWSGX.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWWSGX.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION...PG
000
FXUS66 KLOX 060354
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
854 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.UPDATE...A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MOST THE AREA
STABLE THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING...WITH KSBA-KSMX SURFACE GRADIENTS PEAKING OUT NEAR
5.5 MB OUT OF THE NORTH. LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SEEM IN LINE
WITH CURRENT THINKING. NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO TREND THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS STRONGLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A MARINE LAYER TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...WHILE AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE COOL MARINE AIR
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...SUNDOWNER WINDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SIMILARLY...COOLER AND A MORE MOIST AIR MASS
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THIS AIR MASS
WILL SLAM UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS CREATING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BIT MORE THERMAL SUPPORT IS PRESENT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR STRONGER WINDS.
THE CURRENT FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATUS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM NAM-
BUFR DATA AND NAM-WRF BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH INTO THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST
TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION. AN
UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009/
SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THE THIS
WEEK MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME WARMING, SOME MORE THAN OTHERS.
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
REGARDING HOW MUCH COASTAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE, WITH THE NAM
REALLY KICKING UP HIGHS AT THE BEACHES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE
THE GFS INDICATES A MUCH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION
PATTERN. I THINK THE NAM HAS SOME CREDENCE TO IT AS IT DOES APPEAR
THAT GRADIENTS WILL BE TURNING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, BUT I`M NOT FULLY BUYING INTO IT`S SOLUTION, PARTICULARLY
WITH REGARD TO THE HIGHS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM WITH A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MOSTLY 60S
AND 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WILL PEAK THU AND FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STAY WARM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WINDY AREAS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE VALLEYS AND
COASTAL AREAS DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
A WEAK SYSTEM IS FALLING APART NORTH OF SLO COUNTY TODAY WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED IN OUR AREA, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION, AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SRN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. AND SOME PATCHY MARINE LYR CLOUDS
COULD FORM OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY TONIGHT BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS
AND LESS LIKELY. MARINE LYR CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS PREVALENT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST SATURDAY, WORKING ITS WAY INLAND SUN AND MON. MARINE LYR
COVERAGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, INITIALLY
BEING CONFINED TO THE COAST, BUT THEN WORKING ITS WAY INLAND BY
TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS A PRETTY
STRONG TROF DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH IT`S NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA, IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE ECMWF ISN`T QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH IT, BUT ITS SOLUTION WOULD STILL RESULT IN A
DECENT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...06/0354Z.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE CENTRAL
COASTAL TERMINALS...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 08Z OVER THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS AND KPRB. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY 16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE ISSUES AT KSBA...KBUR...AND KVNY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z...OR 11Z
AT THE LATEST. THEN IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
KLAX AND VICINITY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY 16Z.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
HALL/WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 060353
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
855 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN
END OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATING
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH BAY
REGION. THE FLAT RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THAT WILL TAKE US THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THEIR SOLUTION AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE FLAT RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN TIMING
DIFFERENCE ARE TO GREAT TO NAIL DOWN THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THE GFS
IS FALLING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN HOWEVER
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND THE TIMING IS STILL VERY
DIFFERENT. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN SWINGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOW THE LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
WITH STILL A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 4000 FEET. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW LOWER CLOUDS OFFSHORE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA AFTER 03Z. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET AFTER 03-04Z WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SFO AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MOIST
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIME OF CLEARING WEDNESDAY BUT IT COULD BE QUITE LATE BEFORE
LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF.
WINDS AT SJC FINALLY SWITCHED TO NORTHWEST AFTER 22Z EXPECT
ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE
WIND OF 5 KT WILL RETURN TO SJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KREV 060344 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
845 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING
SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST CA...EXPIRE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR LAKE
TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE...AND TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY MOST
ZONES THIS EVENING. RIDGE GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND INCREASED
THEM FOR MONO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. RC
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FROM 241 PM...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH JET OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE STORM TRACK BEING
PUSHED TO THE NORTH...AREA WILL DRY OUT WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE
MAIN IMPACT THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
35-45 MPH GUSTS. HAVE ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE AND
PYRAMID FOR WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO CURRENT ADVISORY WHICH
EXPIRES AT 8PM THIS EVENING.
WAVE NEAR 40N 150W WILL REACH THE OREGON COAST TOMORROW AND BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA FROM
US-50 NORTH TO LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE...SHADOWING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NEVER COMPLETELY
WEAKEN ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND THE FOOTHILLS. SINCE THE WAVE
WILL BE OVER OREGON EARLY IN THE MORNING...WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH. DECENT
SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS/CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND GOOD MIXING/SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
SINKS. SHOULD EASILY SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
SLOPES...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MAYBE EVEN 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS.
FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT LIGHTER WINDS...BUT
STILL SOME 30-35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. BRONG
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DEALING WITH
TEMPERATURES. FAST ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS IDEA. A COUPLE WEAK
SHORT WAVES WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES SAT AND SUN. TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT FALL AT
ALL...AND WITH THE INCREASED MIXING FROM THE WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE NEAR 80 IN WRN NV VALLEYS AND 65-70 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
BY MON-TUES...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT...AND GFS/EC LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE 00Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED MORE RIDGING. 12Z RUNS
SHOW MORE TROUGHING AND HAVE SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. BELIEVE THE 00Z
RUNS...WHILE STILL POSSIBLE...ARE MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING AND WILL BASE FCST ON BLEND OF MOST RECENT EC/GEFS/EC
ENSEMBLE. 12Z GFS APPEARS A BIT TOO STRONG RIGHT NOW...BUT STILL
BELIEVE IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING THAN PREV 00Z GFS RUN.
WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE ON MON WITH LITTLE IF ANY COOLING...AND
COOL TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
COOLER...BUT WILL NOT BE TOO AGRESSIVE YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO...GOING WITH ENSEMBLE IDEAS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP YET
BUT KEEP IN MIND A DEEPER TROUGH LIKE 12Z GFS WOULD PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS IF IT OCCURS. WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR AREA TERMINALS WILL BE WINDS NEXT 24-36 HRS. SW-W
WINDS WL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z
WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KTS. AFTER LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
WIND TO INCREASE AGAIN BY 18Z FOR KRNO/KTRK/KTVL AND AROUND 21Z FOR
KLOL WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KTS AGAIN FROM THE W-SW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 060338
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
838 PM MST TUE MAY 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST LOWER DESERTS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...IT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY WITH NO
THREAT OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED AND MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND DEW POINTS ON AVERAGE HOVERING
IN THE LOW 30S WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE WARMING TREND THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED VERY WELL BY MODELS AND GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. DIGITAL FORECAST GRID ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO CHANGES
OR UPDATES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE
DAY IS THINNING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND SUNNY SKIES BY WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE
THICK CIRRUS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE WARMED RATHER NICELY
...AND ARE RUNNING 3-7 DEG WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...AS A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
LATITUDES. BY THU/FRI...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL BE ABOUT 100 GPM ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY/MID MAY...EQUATING TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CA DESERTS THU/FRI
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 104/106...WITH THE WARMEST SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
DESERTS AROUND 103/105. EVEN THOUGH THESE NUMBERS ARE 10-14 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEY FALL SHY OF NEAR RECORD.
ASIDE FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK...WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...AS THE RIDGE KEEPS THE STORM
TRACK WELL NORTH OF ARIZONA.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO
DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW...WITH THE GFS
ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING A MUCH STRONGER...DEEPER SYSTEM THAN THE EURO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TIME FRAME /STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT/
AND THE ECMWF/S HISTORY OF OUTPERFORMING THE GFS THESE PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS...THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION OF THE EURO...SHOWING ONLY MINOR TEMP TRENDS DOWNWARD LATE
IN THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS...YET A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...LEADING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT DRAINAGE
WINDS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...NEAR
KPHX AND KIWA...WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AND INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NEAR
KBLH...KNYL AND KIPL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY...STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AT THEIR WARMEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE LOWERING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THRU THE WEEKEND...
STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL. LOCAL BREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EACH DAY. NO RAIN
IN SIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WE ADVANCE DEEPER INTO WHAT IS OUR
NORMALLY VERY DRY SEASON.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MEYERS/WANEK
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...ESTLE
000
FXUS66 KMTR 052342
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
220 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN JOSE...THEN SUBSIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON. FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
FOR WARMING AND DRYING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH BUT STILL DIFFER ENOUGH TO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN BUYING INTO
ONE OR THE OTHER. SO WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
WITH STILL A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 4000 FEET. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW LOWER CLOUDS OFFSHORE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA AFTER 03Z. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET AFTER 03-04Z WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SFO AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MOIST
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIME OF CLEARING WEDNESDAY BUT IT COULD BE QUITE LATE BEFORE
LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF.
WINDS AT SJC FINALLY SWITHCED TO NORTHWEST AFTER 22Z EXPECT
ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE
WIND OF 5 KT WILL RETURN TO SJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: EVANS
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 052315
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OUT OVER
35N/150W THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...PASSING OVER NW CA WED MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WED BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE ENE. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN
THE SYSTEM THAT PASSED YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED
IN DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-1.0 INCH. A DRYING TREND CAN
BE EXPECTED STARTING WED NIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN PAC. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINT AT A VERY WEAK S/WV
APPROACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER BOTH MODELS KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS OVER NW CA AND HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS
TIME. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE IS IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEFS SLIDE A POTENT S/WV SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
CONSIDERING THIS IS 7 DAYS OUT...ALL MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE LOW OVER CENTRAL OR COME TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE
PUSHED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER CLIMO DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
AGREEMENT. A LOOK AT GFS/ECMWF H7 TEMPS/THICKNESSES WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO REACH RIDGE TOPS OVER NW CA.
CONSIDERING WE ARE APPROACHING MID MAY...DOUBTFUL THIS WILL PAN OUT.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS. BK
&&
.MARINE...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST PAC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. A FNT ASSOC
WITH A SFC LOW INVOF 50N WILL BRING RAIN AND AN INCREASE IN S WINDS
TO SCA CRITERIA ON WED. BEHIND THE PASSING SFC FNT...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE N BY THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE EAST PAC...AND BY FRI SUSTAINED SCA WINDS EXPECTED OVER AT
LEAST THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY BY FRI AFTN. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN GFS ATTM...BUT RECENT PERFORMANCE LENDS CREDENCE TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER NAM SOLN. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND SCA CRITERIA THRU THE
WEEKEND. FOR THE SEAS...ENP IS OVERDONE COMPARED TO ALL BUOY OBS BY
ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET. SEAS ARE TRANSITIONING FROM BEING MAINLY
WIND-WAVE DRIVEN TO A MODERATE W SWELL AT 10 TO 12 SECONDS...THIS
SWELL PEAKED TODAY AND WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH WIND-DRIVEN SEAS
DOMINATING ON WED AND THURS IN ASSOC WITH INCREASING N WINDS. SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR MOD SWELL IN ALL
WATERS TONIGHT AND WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS ON WED.
CLARK
&&
.AVIATION...VFR VIS AND BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOC WITH BKN CU FIELD ABOVE 3KFT THAT IS CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. CURRENT EXCEPTION IS CEC WHERE IFR CLOUDS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DISSIPATE...TODAYS TRENDS SUGGEST THESE IFR CIGS
MAY BE IN AND OUT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY
COASTAL FOG AND BKN VFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. RAIN WILL HOLD OFF AT UKI UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED.
CLARK
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PZZ470
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY
PZZ475
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY
PZZ450-455
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM
PDT WEDNESDAY
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 052249
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
350 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR BIT OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PUT
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY...THOUGH NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RANGING
ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THERE IS A BIT OF A MUGGY FEELING.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST WITH NO STRONG
MECHANISM TO DRY US OUT. BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECTING A FAIR BIT OF
CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN WITH US THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 18Z NAM AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE HINTING AT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF WESTERN SHASTA COUNTY
THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS THIS SETUP CAN
FREQUENTLY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL QUITE MOIST (TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
RANGING BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES) THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL BE FURTHER NORTHWARD AS THE JET WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ALONG THE
OREGON BORDER. EXPECTING ONLY A BIT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN
SAC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT.
A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE BEGINNING THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH GRADIENTS ARE LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS POINT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS WE NEAR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING AROUND 15C FRIDAY...WHICH
WHEN MIXED ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID
80S THROUGH THE VALLEY. DANG
.EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ENTRAINED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW STILL INTO CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ESCAPE THE GRIP OF THE
PARENT LOW AND TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THIS SLOWED FROM THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME FORECASTED
YESTERDAY. EVEN SO...THIS WEAK WAVE IS SO WEAK THAT WE SHOULD
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDINESS. AFTERWARD THE PATTERN
STAYS QUITE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC HINT. WE TENDED TO GO
ALONG WITH HPC AND DISCOUNTED THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS IT BRINGS A
539DM CLOSED LOW INTO OREGON AND NRN CAL. THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO
DRAMATIC AS ESEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. THEREFORE...WE DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE VALLEY AND 50S TO 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. JMC
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN VFR CIG OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER NRN SAC VALLEY AND SW GUSTS OVER THE MTNS UP TO 20-25 KT
WILL WEAKEN TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTRIBUTE
MVFR/IFR CIG AFT 12Z WED OVER NRN SAC VALLEY AND MVFR AFT 14Z OVER
SRN SAC VALLEY. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 18-19Z SRN SAC VALLEY
AND MVFR/VFR BY 22Z UP NORTH DUE TO PRECIP IN AREA. JMC
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 052147
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
245 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN JOSE...THEN SUBSIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON. FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
FOR WARMING AND DRYING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH BUT STILL DIFFER ENOUGH TO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN BUYING INTO
ONE OR THE OTHER. SO WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:46 AM PDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BUT A MOIST WEST FLOW WILL
REMAIN. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME LIFTING OF CIGS. CIGS WILL RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
.MONTEREY PENINSULA...SAME STORY AS SF BAY AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
CIGS THIS MORNING THEN SOME LIFTING BY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: EVANS
AVIATION/MARINE FORECAST: MM
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 052146
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
246 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS PRODUCING A PARTLY
CLOUDY BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL CA. A NORTHWARD
BULGE IN THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ON SAT PIX AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF NEARING 145W. THIS INCREASE IN RIDGING
WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CA TONITE AND EARLY WED...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AIMING ITS PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIP WELL AWAY FROM CENTRAL CA...WITH THE ONLY IMPACT
MAYBE BEING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST WITH ANOTHER NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS CA THURS. ALSO BEGINNING THURS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
IN ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS HIGH
WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE SFC THERMAL TROF WEST OF THE SIERRA THURS
NITE OR FRI. THE EURO IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT MOVING THE
TROF INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS NEUTRAL TO WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS...H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL
CA ARE IN THE 582-585 DM RANGE WITH H85 TEMPS RISING INTO THE
18-20 DEG/C RANGE. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS UP 6-10 DEGS ABOVE
AVERAGE FRI AND SAT. BOTH GFS AND THE EURO SHOW THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC BREAKING DOWN...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
REX BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC ALONG ABOUT 160W
BY MON. THIS CAUSES A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DIG STRONGLY SE
TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST MON. THIS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS CA...FOR A COOLING
TREND...THOUGH HOW DRAMATIC IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...BEAN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KREV 052141
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH JET OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE STORM TRACK BEING
PUSHED TO THE NORTH...AREA WILL DRY OUT WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE
MAIN IMPACT THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
35-45 MPH GUSTS. HAVE ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE AND
PYRAMID FOR WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO CURRENT ADVISORY WHICH
EXPIRES AT 8PM THIS EVENING.
WAVE NEAR 40N 150W WILL REACH THE OREGON COAST TOMORROW AND BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA FROM
US-50 NORTH TO LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE...SHADOWING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NEVER COMPLETELY
WEAKEN ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND THE FOOTHILLS. SINCE THE WAVE
WILL BE OVER OREGON EARLY IN THE MORNING...WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH. DECENT
SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SHOWERS/CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND GOOD MIXING/SURFACE HEATING
OVER THE SINKS. SHOULD EASILY SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA SLOPES...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MAYBE EVEN 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE
AREAS.
FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT LIGHTER WINDS...BUT
STILL SOME 30-35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. BRONG
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DEALING WITH
TEMPERATURES. FAST ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS IDEA. A COUPLE WEAK
SHORT WAVES WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES SAT AND SUN. TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT FALL AT
ALL...AND WITH THE INCREASED MIXING FROM THE WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE NEAR 80 IN WRN NV VALLEYS AND 65-70 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
BY MON-TUES...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT...AND GFS/EC LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE 00Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED MORE RIDGING. 12Z RUNS
SHOW MORE TROUGHING AND HAVE SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. BELIEVE THE 00Z
RUNS...WHILE STILL POSSIBLE...ARE MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING AND WILL BASE FCST ON BLEND OF MOST RECENT EC/GEFS/EC
ENSEMBLE. 12Z GFS APPEARS A BIT TOO STRONG RIGHT NOW...BUT STILL
BELIEVE IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING THAN PREV 00Z GFS RUN.
WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE ON MON WITH LITTLE IF ANY COOLING...AND
COOL TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
COOLER...BUT WILL NOT BE TOO AGRESSIVE YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO...GOING WITH ENSEMBLE IDEAS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP YET
BUT KEEP IN MIND A DEEPER TROUGH LIKE 12Z GFS WOULD PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS IF IT OCCURS. WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR AREA TERMINALS WILL BE WINDS NEXT 24-36 HRS. SW-W
WINDS WL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z
WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KTS. AFTER LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
WIND TO INCREASE AGAIN BY 18Z FOR KRNO/KTRK/KTVL AND AROUND 21Z FOR
KLOL WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KTS AGAIN FROM THE W-SW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002-004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NVZ002-
004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 052138
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
237 PM MST TUE MAY 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST LOWER DESERTS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...IT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY WITH NO
THREAT OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AT LEAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE
DAY IS THINNING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND SUNNY SKIES BY WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE
THICK CIRRUS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE WARMED RATHER NICELY
..AND ARE RUNNING 3-7 DEG WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...AS A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
LATITUDES. BY THU/FRI...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL BE ABOUT 100 GPM ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID MAY...EQUATING TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CA DESERTS
THU/FRI SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 104/106...WITH THE WARMEST
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AROUND 103/105. EVEN THOUGH THESE NUMBERS
ARE 10-14 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEY FALL SHY OF
NEAR RECORD. ASIDE FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK...WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...AS THE RIDGE
KEEPS THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OR ARIZONA.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO
DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW...WITH THE GFS
ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING A MUCH STRONGER...DEEPER SYSTEM THAN THE EURO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TIME FRAME /STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT/
AND THE ECMWF/S HISTORY OF OUTPERFORMING THE GFS THESE PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS...THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION OF THE EURO...SHOWING ONLY MINOR TEMP TRENDS DOWNWARD LATE
IN THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS...YET A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LEAD TO
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY AT KIPL AND KPHX. DECK OF BKN
CIRRUS AOA 20 THSD FT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY...STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AT THEIR WARMEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE LOWERING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THRU THE WEEKEND...
STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL. LOCAL BREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EACH DAY. NO RAIN
IN SIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WE ADVANCE DEEPER INTO WHAT IS OUR
NORMALLY VERY DRY SEASON.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...WANEK
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ESTLE
000
FXUS66 KLOX 052057
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WINDS AND WARM TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS THIS WEEK, THOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE NEITHER OF CONSEQUENCE. THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY WILL BE
THE MOST INTERESTING AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOTH VERY WARM AND
WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 90S IN SOME AREAS THERE WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR OF THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
BREEZY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE
AS WELL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THE THIS WEEK MOST AREAS
WILL SEE SOME WARMING, SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH COASTAL
WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE, WITH THE NAM REALLY KICKING UP HIGHS AT THE
BEACHES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A MUCH MORE
TYPICAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION PATTERN. I THINK THE NAM HAS SOME
CREDENCE TO IT AS IT DOES APPEAR THAT GRADIENTS WILL BE TURNING
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT I`M NOT FULLY BUYING
INTO IT`S SOLUTION, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE HIGHS. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM WITH A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS
THE WARMER NAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND MOSTLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WILL PEAK THU
AND FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY WARM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WINDY
AREAS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
A WEAK SYSTEM IS FALLING APART NORTH OF SLO COUNTY TODAY WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED IN OUR AREA, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION, AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SRN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. AND SOME PATCHY MARINE LYR CLOUDS
COULD FORM OVER COASTAL LA COUNTY TONIGHT BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS
AND LESS LIKELY. MARINE LYR CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS PREVALENT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY, WORKING ITS WAY INLAND SUN AND MON. MARINE
LYR COVERAGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
INTIALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE COAST, BUT THEN WORKING ITS WAY
INLAND BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
PRETTY STRONG TROF DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH IT`S
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA, IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE ECMWF ISN`T QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH IT, BUT ITS SOLUTION WOULD STILL RESULT IN A DECENT
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...05/1915Z.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY FOR KSBA...BUT POSSIBLY ALSO KBUR AND
KVNY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE LOW CLOUD
FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KLAX AND KLGB.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY EARLY
CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE UPON
OCCASION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 052031
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. WARMER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN COOLER THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY-FRIDAY)...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG WERE IN THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. THERE WAS ALSO VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY. EARLY
AFTERNOON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 8 MB SAN-IPL.
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS ALOFT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CAUSE
LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE HIGH
DESERTS WERE THEY SHOULD REACH ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH. FLAT RIDGING WILL CAUSE SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INLAND BY THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE WARMER INLAND VALLEYS AND NEAR 105 IN
THE SRN DESERTS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MODERATE MAX TEMP
INCREASES NEAR THE COAST. A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE COASTAL AREAS AND FAR WRN SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND AND A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
041830Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS NEAR 1200 FEET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO
THE COAST BY SUNSET AND SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE INLAND
VALLEYS AND SOME MESA AREAS OVERNIGHT. SOME MESA AIRPORTS SUCH AS
KSDM COULD RECEIVE LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. BREAK UP
ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE FL250...
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS AT KPSP AND KTRM WILL BE NEAR 40C ON WEDNESDAY. HORTON
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH DESERT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. SEE LAXNPWSGX.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWWSGX.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...HORTON
000
FXUS66 KLOX 051925
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TODAY BUT NO RAIN.
IN FACT, THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND HIGHS THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY WITH 60S AT THE COAST AND 70S TO LOW
80S INLAND. OTHERWISE, MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT WILL IMPACT SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS WELL AS THE WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING 90S TO THE
INLAND AREAS WED AND THU AND POSSIBLY SRN SBA COUNTY AS WELL. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST AND WINDIEST OF THE MODELS TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS, BUT THAT STILL PRODUCES ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL
NW WIND PRONE AREAS. THERE ARE NO WIND ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOW 40S THROUGH
THE CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE SAME AREAS (INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR)
AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, WITH THIS PATTERN REPEATING ITSELF EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND INCREASINGLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL BRING SOME IMPRESSIVELY WARM TEMPS TO SRN SBA COUNTY,
EVEN AT NIGHT WHERE TEMPS COULD EASILY JUMP BACK INTO THE 90S.
GRADIENTS WILL BE TRENDING OFFSHORE WED AND THU RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND ALL AREAS. HOW MUCH OF THIS WARMING REACHES THE
VENTURA AND LA COUNTY COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN, HOWEVER WARMER
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE 90S, ESPECIALLY THU.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM...
AS WE PUSH INTO LATE SPRING THE WEATHER PATTERNS ARE SLOWING DOWN
AND THIS MAKES FOR A BETTER LONG RANGE FORECAST...AT LEAST AT THE
SYNOPTIC LEVEL. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS A
LITTLE FLATTER THAN THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HGTS SO LOOK FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MORE THAN LIKELY A MARINE LAYER WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS THE LA. COASTS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP VTA CLOUD FREE BUT THAT THINKING COULD CERTAINLY
CHANGE.
SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS HGTS LOWER AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EASTWARD AND NW FLOW SETS UP. THUS IT IS A MYSTERY WHY THE
GFS TEMP GUIDANCE BUMPS TEMPS UP. IGNORED THAT FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF IT STILL IS FORECASTED TOMORROW.
MONDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY LOOK COOLER AS HGTS DROP AND ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/1915Z.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY FOR KSBA...BUT POSSIBLY ALSO KBUR AND
KVNY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE LOW CLOUD
FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KLAX AND KLGB.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY EARLY
CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE UPON
OCCASION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
| 
