January 3, 2008 Space Weather Prediction Center REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY (RSGA) The Report and Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity is the primary daily report prepared by SWPC. It provides a summary and analysis of solar and geomagnetic activity during the previous 24 hours as well as the most recent solar indices. It also provides a forecast of activity and indices for the next 3 days. See sample and description below. The last 75 Reports are included in this directory. Issue time: Daily at 2200 UTC It is usually online at 2210 UTC. Period Covered: Activity from 2100 UTC the previous day to 2100 UTC on the current day, and predicted activity for next 3 days. Available: via SWPC Anonymous FTP server ftp.swpc.noaa.gov. /pub/latest/RSGA.txt --- most recent report /pub/forecasts/RSGA --- last 75 reports via SWPC Web site: http://swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/RSGA.txt http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/RSGA.html Older reports, beginning in 1996, are on-line in the SWPC Warehouse. Via Anonymous FTP: ftp.swpc.noaa.gov cd to /pub/warehouse/ Via the Web: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/warehouse.html This, and other forecasts and summary reports, are available via email. https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/ See http://swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ for other SWPC data and products. *************************************************************** ** Please read the SWPC Disclaimer at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ** before using the forecasts and data in these reports. *************************************************************** SWPC provides near-real-time and recent data, solar and geomagnetic indices and solar event reports created from preliminary reports. Preliminary data may contain errors or be revised after further review. The historical products in this SWPC Warehouse are the preliminary reports as originally published. SWPC does not encourage the use of preliminary data for research purposes. Links to archive sites with final data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ ****************************************************************** Please send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov Report problems to SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov ======================================================================= SAMPLE :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2008 Jan 02 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2008 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 980 (S08E58) produced a long duration C1 flare at 02/1000Z. An associated CME was observed on LASCO C3 imagery at 02/1006Z. This region is currently classified as a CSO beta sunspot group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 980. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes for the forecast period (3-5 January). Elevated activity is forecast due to possible effects from transients associated with the recent C-class flares. III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan Class M 10/10/10 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jan 080 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 085/087/090 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 006/008-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 ============================================================================== DESCRIPTION Part IA. A summary of significant solar features and activity observed during the reporting period, including characteristics of sunspot groups, magnetic fields, flares, radio bursts, and active filaments associated with significant solar regions. Significant solar limb and disk features, including major filament disappearances, are also included. Part IB. A summary of the potential for solar activity during the next 3 days. Part IIA. A description of significant geophysical activity including geomagnetic activity and proton events, polar cap absorption (PCA) events, and satellite-level particle enhancements observed during the reporting period. Part IIB. A forecast of the level of geophysical activity during the next 3 days. Part III. Class M and class X: Probability forecast of the occurrence of one or more class-M or class-X x-ray flares for each of the next 3 days. Proton flare: Probability forecast of a significant proton event at satellite altitudes (at least 10 pfu at energies greater than 10 MeV) for each of the next 3 days. PCAF: A 24-hour forecast of a polar cap absorption (PCA) event. PCA forrecasts are color coded: PCAF Green: No active sunspot region on the Sun is likely to produce a PCA event in the 24 hours. PCAF Yellow: A sunspot region showing characteristics favorable for producing a PCA event is present on the Sun. If an energetic flare occurs in this region, the probability of a significant PCA event is very high. PCAF Red: An energetic solar event has occurred or a proton event has been observed at satellite altitudes, and there is a high probability that a significant PCA event will result within the next 24 hours. In Progress: A significant PCA event is in progress at forecast time. Part IV. Observed: The current day's 10.7 cm solar radio flux observed at 2000 UTC from Penticton, British Columbia, Canada. Predicted: Daily 3-day forecasts of the 10.7 cm flux. 90-Day Mean: The 90-day mean of the observed 10.7 cm flux. Part V. Observed, estimated, and predicted daily geomagnetic AFr-indices (A-indices from Fredericksburg, VA), and daily AP-indices (planetary A-indices). Ap indices are estimated in near-real time using a network of up to 12 North American stations. Observed AFr / AP: The observed indices for the previous day. Estimated AFr / AP: The estimated indices for the current day. Predicted AFr / AP: 3-day predictions. Part VI. Probability forecast of geomagnetic conditions at middle and high latitudes-the probability of at least one 3-hour K index, at the indicated level, for each of the next 3 days. Active: K = 4 Minor storm: K = 5 Major or Severe storm: K >= 6