NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
ROUNDTABLE SUMMARY:
Severe Weather Research
On November 7, 2007, Dr. Richard Spinrad, Assistant Administrator for Oceanic
and Atmospheric Research (OAR), and Dr. Jack Hayes, Assistant Administrator
for Weather Services (NWS), brought together a diverse group of high-level
constituents to provide input on NOAA’s research priorities to ensure
NOAA is able to provide the observations, sophisticated forecast models, and
state-of-the-art technologies our partners and customers will require in the
future. Following is a summary of the major points discussed at the roundtable.
Opening Remarks
In his opening remarks, Dr. Spinrad welcomed the group and underscored the
important role NOAA research plays in NOAA achieving its mission and goals.
He stressed three messages – OAR supports preeminent research at all
levels of the organization; OAR research provides value to society; and OAR
operates in a culture of transparency, reaching out to constituents for input
on research priorities and planning.
Dr. Spinrad discussed topics that “keep
him up at night” including securing the resources required to carry out
NOAA’s mission, attracting and sustaining a preeminent scientific workforce,
and supporting high-risk, high-payoff research.
Dr. Hayes began his remarks
by outlining not what keeps him up at night, but what makes his day. He gets
excited when a severe weather warning contributes to saving lives and property.
What does keep him up at night are situations when perhaps things could have
been done to better prevent loss of life. He spoke about the many advances
in technology and forecasting that have yielded significant improvements in
forecast and warning accuracy and timeliness. To continue improving weather
services, he is relying on the research done within NOAA, and in collaboration
with NOAA’s many partners.
Constituent Observations
Participants welcomed the opportunity to learn more about existing NOAA research
in severe weather, while some expressed an overall need for NOAA to improve
how it communicates research advances to partners and customers. Participants
also identified current and future areas where NOAA could focus resources and
efforts to transition research to operations, to improve severe weather warning
services. Several themes emerged in the roundtable, including: Information
Architecture, Communicating Risk and Uncertainty, Collaborative Research, and
Severe Weather Climatology.
Information Architecture
- Several participants raised the challenge created by the ever-growing
availability of both raw data and processed data. Discussion touched on the
need to develop automated approaches to data processing, packaging, and decision
aids.
- One participant noted that the growth in observing platforms
is causing an “avalanche” of data, particularly for the media,
who have to make real-time decisions about which warnings to broadcast in a
wide-scale event, and in what priority.
- NOAA should consider the
dissemination means (pipeline) while researching new observational technologies,
so data can be shared and not withheld due to priorities and bandwidth issues,
according to several participants.
- Some participants said NOAA should
continue to advocate internationally for unrestricted, free exchange of weather
and climate data.
Communicating Risk and Uncertainty
- A few participants said that NOAA should focus more research
and attention on the cognitive and social sciences – how, for example,
should NWS warnings be shared when they reach a level where the warning is
so far in advance of the tornado that the public will “go to a movie” first?
- Another
participant raised the need for NOAA to focus more on continuing professional
development to ensure forecasters are prepared to analyze and effectively
use the next generation of observational data.
- Some participants
said NOAA should consider responders and information providers, their roles,
and how they can use extra warning time effectively, and involve them in
the development of procedures for warning the public and communicating uncertainty.
- A
few participants voiced concern with severe weather warnings stigmatizing
mobile homes as unsafe, singling out one home type. They called for NOAA
to develop new standard guidelines for describing safe shelters relative
to the time available to take shelter before a tornado is expected to hit.
- NOAA needs
to involve partners, broaden thinking on the subject of expressing risk,
according to a few participants.
Collaborative Research
- A participant suggested NOAA should broaden the external participation
in testbed research to include customers/decision makers. This would better
ensure new technologies and forecast/warning approaches meet the needs of
emergency responders, and improve the commercial utility of new observational
data and forecast and warning information.
- One participant suggested that
NOAA look for opportunities to involve other user communities in radar research
(e.g., trackers of birds, insects benefit from “ground clutter” and
their knowledge of migratory patterns, etc.), could help weather researchers.
Severe Weather Climatology
- Some participants expressed a great need for identifying the
probabilities of tornadoes hitting particular geographic regions, and suggested
that NOAA devote some resources to further developing severe weather climatology
(comparable to FEMA’s flood maps).
Conclusion
Participants who completed surveys on the value of this roundtable generally
gave it high marks for bringing together a mix of high-level interests representing
academia, the private sector, and government. The general consensus from survey
respondents was that NOAA should hold more discussions like this so that partners
and customers can exchange ideas, discuss needs and learn more about NOAA’s
priorities and plans on a given topic.
Constituent Relations Home | Participants
12/6/2007