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"Global Trends 2015" Terrorism-Related Excerpts
Terrorism-related Excerpts from Global Trends
2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
The following items
are terrorism-related items from the National Intelligence Council's "Global
Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts"
report (December 2000).
Transnational Terrorism
(page 50)
States with poor
governance; ethnic, cultural, or religious tensions; weak economies; and
porous borders will be prime breeding grounds for terrorism. In such states,
domestic groups will challenge the entrenched government, and transnational
networks seeking safehavens.
At the same time,
the trend away from state-supported political terrorism and toward more
diverse, free-wheeling, transnational networks—enabled by information
technology—will continue. Some of the states that actively sponsor terrorism
or terrorist groups today may decrease or even cease their support by
2015 as a result of regime changes, rapprochement with neighbors, or the
conclusion that terrorism has become counterproductive. But weak states
also could drift toward cooperation with terrorists, creating de facto
new state supporters.
Between now and 2015
terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed
to achieve mass casualties.
We expect the trend
toward greater lethality in terrorist attacks to continue.
Reacting to US Military
Superiority (page 56)
Experts agree that
the United States, with its decisive edge in both information and weapons
technology, will remain the dominant military power during the next 15
years. Further bolstering the strong position of the United States are
its unparalleled economic power, its university system, and its investment
in research and development—half of the total spent annually by the advanced
industrial world. Many potential adversaries, as reflected in doctrinal
writings and statements, see US military concepts, together with technology,
as giving the United States the ability to expand its lead in conventional
warfighting capabilities.
This perception
among present and potential adversaries will continue to generate the
pursuit of asymmetric capabilities against US forces and interests abroad
as well as the territory of the United States. US opponents—state
and such nonstate actors as drug lords, terrorists, and foreign
insurgents—will not want to engage the US military on its terms. They
will choose instead political and military strategies designed to dissuade
the United States from using force, or, if the United States does use
force, to exhaust American will, circumvent or minimize US strengths,
and exploit perceived US weaknesses. Asymmetric challenges can arise
across the spectrum of conflict that will confront US forces in a theater
of operations or on US soil.
Threats to Critical Infrastructure.
Some potential
adversaries will seek ways to threaten the US homeland.
The US national infrastructure—communications,
transportation, financial transactions, energy networks—is
vulnerable to disruption by physical and electronic attack because
of its interdependent nature and by cyber attacks because of their dependence
on computer networks. Foreign governments and groups will seek to exploit
such vulnerabilities using conventional munitions, information operations,
and even WMD.
Terrorism.
Much of the terrorism
noted earlier will be directed at the United States and its overseas interests.
Most anti-US terrorism will be based on perceived ethnic, religious or
cultural grievances. Terrorist groups will continue to find ways to attack
US military and diplomatic facilities abroad. Such attacks are likely
to expand increasingly to include US companies and American citizens.
Middle East and Southwest Asian-based terrorists are the most likely
to threaten the United States.
Historical Document
Posted: Apr 06, 2007 05:14 PM
Last Updated: Jun 20, 2008 09:21 AM
Last Reviewed: Apr 06, 2007 05:14 PM