You've read Jerry Palm's Bracket
Projections, now here's how CBSSports.com college basketball producer Brian De Los Santos assesses the
resumés of teams that may be sweating it out until Selection Sunday.
Teams that should be safe (56): ACC (5): Duke, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest Atlantic 10 (2): *Temple, Xavier Big 12 (6): *Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Big East (7): *Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia Big Ten (4): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue Horizon (2): *Cleveland State, Butler Mountain West (2): *Utah, BYU Pac-10 (5): *USC, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee Others (21): *Cornell (Ivy), *Radford (Big South), *East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), *Morehead State (Ohio Valley), *Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), *VCU (Colonial), *Chattanooga (Southern), *Gonzaga (West Coast), *Siena (MAAC), *North Dakota State (Summit), *Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), *Robert Morris (Northeast), *Portland State (Big Sky), *American (Patriot), *Binghamton (America East), *Memphis (Conference USA), *Morgan State (MEAC), *Akron (MAC), *Alabama State (SWAC), *Utah State (WAC), *Northridge (Big West)
* -- denotes automatic bid
If all our "safe" teams are indeed locks and assuming a team listed above has won/will win its conference's automatic bid (30 conferences listed), plus 1 other conference automatic bid, that would leave 8 at-large spots available in the tournament of 65. There are 23 teams currently on our bubble list.
NOTE: Click team name or logo for a detailed breakdown of a team's RPI and SOS.
Last updated: March 15, 2:40 a.m. ET Saturday's automatic bids: Binghamton (America East), Memphis (Conference USA), Temple (Atlantic 10), USC (Pac-10), Missouri (Big 12), Morgan State (MEAC), Utah (Mountain West), Louisville (Big East), Akron (MAC), Alabama State (SWAC), Utah State (WAC), Northridge (Big West)
Seven victories vs. the RPI top 75. Wins of note: at North Carolina, vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, vs. Va. Tech, vs. Providence, at Maryland.
Cons
Three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, including one vs. a team outside the RPI top 200 (Harvard, at home). Swept by Miami, another team on the bubble. Fifteen victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
Lost heartbreaker against Duke in ACC quarterfinals. A win could have put them over the top. They have a nice array of wins and decent power numbers, but their play late in the season was generally unimpressive. The Eagles were very fortunate to avoid a resumé-killing loss in the season finale vs. Georgia Tech. Only five of their 11 losses are against definite NCAA tournament teams.
An SOS in the top 25. Eight victories vs. the RPI top 100. Wins of note: vs. North Carolina, vs. Wake Forest (ACC quarters), neutral court vs. Michigan State, vs. Miami, vs. Michigan, vs. Virginia Tech.
Cons
A 4-7 mark vs. the RPI top 50. Four losses by 20 points or more. Two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, including a home loss vs. Morgan State.
Outlook
While the Terps have some nice wins in and out of conference, they also have a fair share of bad losses. Picked up a strong win vs. Wake Forest in the ACC quarterfinals, giving them three victories over teams in the RPI top 25. It's a solid resumé, but there are other bubble teams out there with similar credentials.
An SOS in the top 20. Nine victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: at Clemson, at Wake Forest, vs. Boston College. Won at Miami (Fla.) during the regular season and also beat the Hurricanes in the first round of ACC tournament.
Cons
Lost seven of final nine games. A 5-11 record vs. the RPI top 75 (1-7 vs. the top 25, 2-9 vs. top 50). Three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. Lost only meeting against Maryland, a fellow bubble team.
Outlook
The one nice positive in the Hokies' favor is they were able to win on the road against strong competition. If they could only have done the same at home down the stretch, they'd be in good shape. Instead they lost their final three homes games (FSU, Duke and UNC). Lost a hearbreaking ACC semifinal matchup against North Carolina. Beating Miami (Fla.) in the first round probably wasn't enough to punch their ticket to the Dance.
An SOS in the top 25. Wins of Note: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Florida State, vs. Maryland, at Kentucky, swept Boston College.
Cons
Lost eight of their last 12. A 2-6 mark vs. teams in the RPI top 25, 5-10 vs. the top 75. Lost at NC State and at Georgia Tech.
Outlook
The Hurricanes hit the skids the final month of the season, including an atrocious loss at Georgia Tech, resulting in one of only two ACC victories for the Yellow Jackets. They have some decent power numbers, but ACC first-round loss to Virginia Tech, another team that was fighting to keep its NCAA tournament hopes alive, likely snuffed out any realistic hopes of receiving an at-large invitation.
Strong overall record. An RPI in the 20s. Seven victories vs. the RPI top 75. Wins of note: vs. Xavier, neutral court vs. Marquette, vs. Temple, neutral court vs. Auburn.
Cons
An SOS in the 90s. Seven wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Lost at Creighton, another team battling for an at-large spot after failing to win its conference's automatic bid. Three losses vs. teams outside the RPI top 100, including one outside the top 200.
Outlook
They did themselves no favors losing to Duquesne in the A-10 semis as the Dukes or Temple will take the A-10's automatic bid, which no team on the bubble wanted to see, and that probably goes double for Dayton. Does a strong RPI and eight victories over teams in the RPI top 100, including Xavier and Marquette, trump a weak SOS and three bad losses?
Winners of six of their final eight and 10 of their last 13. Wins of note: vs. Dayton, vs. Temple, neutral court vs. Penn State.
Cons
An SOS in the triple digits. A 2-5 mark vs. the RPI top 50 (0-4 vs. the top 25). Eleven wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 and four vs. teams outside the top 300.
Outlook
The Rams put a nice run together the second half of the season, but it doesn't look like it will be enough to get them in the NCAA tournament. They ended the regular season with a heartbreaking loss at home to UMass and followed it up with a quick exit in the A-10 tournament. Without strong power numbers and a marquee victory to hang their hat on, the Rams didn't have much room for error.
Wins of note: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse, vs. Rhode Island, swept Cincinnati.
Cons
An RPI in the 70s. A 2-9 mark vs teams in the RPI top 50, 3-12 vs. the top 75. A 6-9 mark away from home. Lost at home to Northeastern. Losses to bubble teams Boston College and Saint Mary's.
Outlook
Beating Pittsburgh was huge, but that alone isn't enough to warrant an at-large invite from the selection committee. The Friars own only five victories over teams ranked in the RPI top 100, very low for a team from a major conference. We won't say they're completely out of luck for an at-large bid after losing to Louisville in the Big East quarterfinals, but they're definitely not the best contender.
An RPI in the 40s. An SOS in the top 15. Six victories over teams in the RPI top 50, nine vs. the top 75. Wins of note: vs. Duike, vs. Illinois, vs. Purduie, neutral court vs. UCLA, swept Minnesota.
Cons
Lost to fellow bubble team Maryland and swept by Wisconsin.
Outlook
With strong data (RPI, SOS, top 50 wins, top 100 wins) across the board and non-conference victories vs. Duke and UCLA, there should be no reason the Wolverines get left out of the Dance.
An RPI in the 50. An SOS in the top 15. Nine victories over teams in the RPI top 100. Only one loss to a team outside the RPI top 75. Wins of note: vs. Illinois, vs. Ohio State, at Virginia Tech, swept Michigan, swept Penn State.
Cons
A 4-10 mark vs. the RPI top 50. Swept by Minnesota. Virginia Tech is their only significant victory out of conference.
Outlook
We keep hearing the argument that they didn't beat anybody out of conference (what? Virginia Tech is chopped liver?). Their three non-conference losses were to UConn, Marquette (when Dominic James was still healthy) and Texas. Is the selection committee really going to penalize them because they couldn't get a victory over those three teams? Even in defeat they were usually competitive, with only three of their 12 losses decided by double digits.
An RPI and SOS in the top 40. Five victories vs. the RPI top 50, nine vs. the top 100. No losses to a team outside the RPI top 75. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Louisville, vs. Illinois, vs. Ohio State, vs. Penn State, swept Wisconsin.
Cons
Weak non-conference schedule. Eight victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Swept by Michigan.
Outlook
The Golden Gophers played only two non-conference games against teams in the RPI top 100. Of course, the fact that one of those two was a victory over Louisville should really help their case. Their hopes wouldn't even be in question if they could have just snagged one win in three chances against Michigan State.
Last game
lost to Michigan State 64-56 (Big Ten quarterfinals)
Six victories over teams in the RPI top 50, including a 3-1 mark vs. the top 25. Wins of note: at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, vs. Michigan, swept Illinois.
Cons
Penn State's SOS and RPI has improved down the stretch, but still isn't great (an RPI in the 60s, and SOS in the 80s). Eleven victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200.
Outlook
Up until their loss in the regular-season finale at Iowa in double OT, all of the Nittany Lions' losses were vs. teams in the RPI top 75. They did absolutely nothing out of conference. All six top 50 wins came vs. Big Ten foes, while their best non-conference victory is against Mount St. Mary's (sub-100 RPI). They're a tough call.
An SOS in the top 20. An RPI hovering around the top 50. Five victories vs. the RPI to 50, nine vs. the RPI top 100. Seven victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: vs. Kansas (Big 12 tourney), vs. Texas (Big 12 tourney), neutral court vs. Arizona State, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas A&M, neutral court vs. Providence.
Cons
A 5-9 record vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. Lost at home to bubble team South Carolina.
Outlook
There is no question that the Bears have accumulated several good victories, but can a team that went 5-11 in conference play during the regular season really merit an at-large selection? They gave it good run in the Big 12 tournament, but an invite to the Dance probably isn't forthcoming.
Wins of note: vs. Missouri, at Texas, at Texas A&M, at Cleveland State.
Cons
An RPI outside the top 80 and an SOS in the 90s. Eleven victories vs. teams ranked outside the top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school) and just five vs. teams ranked in the top 100. A 1-5 mark vs. the RPI top 25.
Outlook
They do have a trio of nice road wins, but the Wildcats lack the power numbers and their five victories vs. teams in the RPI top 100 are on the low end among bubble teams, especially being from a major conference.
An RPI in the top 30. An SOS hovering around the top 50. Won five of their final six games. Wins of note: vs. Utah, vs. BYU (MWC semis), vs. New Mexico, three victories against UNLV.
Cons
Ten wins vs. teams ranked outside the RPI top 200 (including two vs. non-DI schools). No noteworthy victories vs. out-of-conference foes.
Outlook
Thanks to a victory over BYU and two straight over UNLV, the Aztecs have a much stronger case for an at-large bid than they did just a week ago. But is it enough? They have only one loss vs. a team outside the RPI top 75, but lost their only meetings vs. bubble teams St. Mary's and Arizona.
Four victories vs. the RPI top 30, nine victories vs. the top 100. Wins of note: at Louisville, vs. Utah, vs. Arizona, vs. New Mexico, swept BYU.
Cons
An SOS in the 80s -- nine wins vs. teams ranked outside the RPI top 200. Three losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 100, including one outside the top 200. Three losses to conference rival/bubble team San Diego State.
Outlook
While the four RPI top 25 victories are great, it's a very disjointed resumé for the Rebels, who went 4-6 down the stretch. A one and done in the MWC tournament on their home court was probably the nail in the coffin.
Winners of eight of their final 10 games. Wins of note: vs. Utah, vs. BYU, vs. UNLV, vs. San Diego State.
Cons
An RPI in the 60s and an SOS in the 70s. All their top victories came at home. Three losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 100 (all out of conference), including one at home. Lost to fellow bubble team Creighton.
Outlook
Despite a late-season run to snag a share of the MWC regular-season title, it looks like the Lobos will have to settle for the NIT.
An SOS in the top 35. Six victories vs. teams in the RPI top 50, nine vs. the top 100. Wins of note: vs. Kansas, vs. Washington, vs. UCLA, neutral court vs. Gonzaga, vs. San Diego State, vs. USC.
Cons
Ended the season having lost five of their final six games following a seven-game winning streak. A 5-10 mark in road/neutral games. Lost at fellow bubble team UNLV.
Outlook
It's tough to know what to make of the Wildcats, who have had quite the roller-coaster season. They have some nice wins and no truly bad losses, but the final weeks of the season definitely raised some concerns about Arizona, leaving the Wildcats squarely perched on the bubble, closer to out, than in. Their 24-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances is in serious jeopardy.
Last game
lost to Arizona State 68-56 (Pac-10 quarterfinals)
Won nine of their final 11 games. Wins of note: vs. LSU, vs. Tennessee, vs. Florida (SEC quarters).
Cons
An SOS in the 60s. A 2-4 record vs. the top 50, 5-7 vs. the top 75 and 6-10 vs. the top 100. Eight victories vs. teams ranked outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school). Lost only meetings vs. bubble teams Dayton and South Carolina.
Outlook
The Tigers started with a thud, losing to Mercer in the second game of the season, but they've been one of the hottest teams in the country the last month of the season. Picked up a key victory vs. Florida in the SEC quarterfinals, but overall credentials may not be enough to garner an at-large invitation.
An RPI hovering around the top 50. Eight wins vs. the RPI top 100. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Washington, vs. South Carolina, at Auburn, vs. Kentucky.
Cons
Lost six of final 10 games. An SOS in the 80s. A 1-5 record vs. teams ranked in the RPI top 50. They have nine wins vs. teams ranked outside the RPI top 200.
Outlook
They feasted on a dreadful non-conference schedule and played unevenly in a down year for the SEC. Chances of drawing an at-large invitation would have looked a lot better with a victory over Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals. Also lost only meeting with Mississippi State, which has made a late run at an at-large bid.
Winners of five in a row. Nine wins vs. teams in the RPI top 100. Ten victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: vs. LSU (SEC semis), vs. Florida, vs. Kentucky, two wins vs. South Carolina (one in SEC tourney).
Cons
Just two wins vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Four losses vs. teams outside the RPI top 100, two outside the top 150.
Outlook
A nice run in the SEC tournament has moved Mississippi State to the bubble after a sub-par regular season, but unless they win the automatic bid, this may be as close as they get to the NCAA tournament. Only three of their 12 losses are to definite tournament teams (Tennessee, twice to LSU) and they were swept by fellow bubble team Auburn.
Wins of note: at Baylor, vs. Florida, vs. Auburn, swept Kentucky.
Cons
An SOS in the 90s. One victory vs. a team ranked in the RPI top 50 and eight wins vs. teams ranked outside the top 200.
Outlook
There isn't much on the Gamecocks' resumé that really stands out in a positive manner. They played one of the worst non-conference schedules in the nation, and in a weak year for the SEC, they don't have any victories over a definite NCAA tournament team. Didn't help themselves by failing to win a game in the SEC tournament.
Last game
lost to Mississippi State 82-68 (SEC quarterfinals)
An RPI in the top 50. Twelve victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: vs. Utah State, neutral court vs. San Diego State, neutral court vs. Providence.
Cons
An SOS in the triple-digits. Only three victories vs. teams inside the RPI top 100 and nine wins vs. teams outside the top 200. Two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. Two victories vs. non-DI schools.
Outlook
It's not the best resumé out there, but they do have victories over three fellow bubble teams. The committee could take into account that the absence of Patrick Mills played a large part in four of their losses (including a very bad loss at Santa Clara). Mills returned in the WCC tourney, but was predictably rusty. The Gaels added a game against Eastern Washington after the WCC tourney to give Mills another game to round into shape, but it probably did little to impact the selection committee's ultimate decision.
An RPI hovering around the top 40. Nine victories vs. teams in the RPI top 100. A 10-4 mark in road/neutral games. Won 11 of their final 12 games. Wins of note: vs. Dayton, vs. New Mexico.
Cons
An SOS in the triple-digits. Seventeen wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 100. Three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, including two against teams outside the RPI top 150.
Outlook
If Creighton was hoping for an at-large invitation to the NCAA tournament, it left a horrible final impression. The Bluejays, who carried a 10-game win streak into the MVC tournament, narrowly avoided a huge upset at the hands of Wichita State in the quarterfinals before being blown out by Illinois State in the semifinals. There isn't much meat to their resumé that makes them stand out aside from their overall record.
I changed the format up a bit this year. Last year I was a little bit more predictive and while I was pretty much dead on, missing on just one team, I decided to list the bubble teams by conference this
So all our Bubble teams but one (Mississippi State) has completed their season. I don't think Mississippi State gets in if it loses, so here is how I assess the Bubble ....
Late surges by low bubbles teams and early loses by stronger ones have made this relatively easy to figure out bubble really complicated. And it doesn't help that there may be autobid robbery. Temple would have had a strong case just for making th
Late surges by low bubbles teams and early loses by stronger ones have made this relatively easy to figure out bubble really complicated. And it doesn't help that there may be autobid robbery. Temple would have had a strong case just for making th
