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OIAF
Data Products and Analysis |
The Office of Integrated Analysis and Foreccasting (OIAF) prepares four annual reports in the areas of energy projections and greenhouse gas emissions. Energy Projections
Annual Energy Outlook The Annual Energy Outlook provides projections of U.S. energy consumption, production, imports and exports, distribution, prices, and carbon emissions for the midterm period, currently 2025, using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Alternative cases include changes in world oil prices, economic growth, end-use technology penetration, nuclear retirement, electricity demand,oil and gas technological progress, and coal productivity, and other cases deemed relevant to current energy issues. International Energy Outlook The International Energy Outlook provides projections of world energy consumption by region and primary energy source, electricity consumption, oil production, nuclear power capacity, coal trade, and carbon emissions for the midterm period, currently 2025. Alternative economic growth cases provide a range for energy consumption, and the Outlook analyzes the issues that are likely to influence international energy demand and carbon emissions. |
| Greenhouse Gas Data Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 
As required by the Energy Policy Act of 1992,this report presents the annual estimates of U.S.emissions for carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases, as well as other criteria pollutants that affect the climate.
Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases
Service Reports are prepared for the U.S.Congress, Administration, or other Federal agencies. The requesting organization writes to the Administrator of EIA stating the purpose of the analysis and the assumptions to be used. The written request is usually followed by a meeting with the client as the work begins and a briefing on the results at the conclusion. OIAF has performed a number of such special analyses. "For current informqtion on EIA's service reports, visit our web site at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf.html Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy This analysis responds to a December 17, 2004 request by Senator Jeff Bingaman asking that the Energy Information Administration (EIA)assess the impacts of the recommendations made by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP)in its December 2004 report entitled, Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy Challenges. This report provides EIA’s analysis of those NCEP recommendations on energy supply,demand,and imports that could be simulated using the NEMS. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/bingaman/pdf/sroiaf(2005)02.pdf Analysis of S.139,the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003 On January 9, 2003, Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman introduced S.139, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003 (S.139), in the U.S.Senate. S.139 would establish regulations to limit emission allowance program and related emissions reporting requirements. The emissions allowance program would apply to most greenhouse gas emissions sources, the exceptions being the emissions from the residential and agriculture sectors, as well as emissions from organizational entities whose annual emissions are less than a certain threshold. This report responds to a request from Senator James Inhofe, received on January 28, 2003, and Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman, received on April 2, 2003, to analyze the impact of S.139.
Analysis of Alternative Mercury Control Strategies Analysis of Senate Amendment 2028, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003 Analysis of S.1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003; S.843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003; and S.366, the Clean Power Act of 2003 Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Analysis of Restricted Natural Gas Supply Cases Summary Impacts of Modeled Provisions of the 2003 Conference Energy Bill Analysis of Five Selected Tax Provisions of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003 Analyses of Selected Provisions of Proposed Energy Legislation: 2003 Analysis of S.485,the Clear Skies Act of 2003,and S.843,the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003 Analysis of a 10-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard
OIAF prepares analytical papers and reports on topics of current interest in energy markets that are either used to update the assumptions and methodology of the NEMS or are applications of NEMS to current issues. Examples include: Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation This paper evaluates the accuracy of the projections published in the Annual
Energy Outlook, by comparing projected data from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with actual historical values. Major variables on consumption, production, net imports, price, economics, and carbon dioxide emissions are included in the evaluation. This paper also summarizes some of the reasons for significant differences between the projections and actual historical values. State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Status Through 2003 This paper provides a summary of state renewable portfolio standards, renewable energy mandates, and voluntary goals as of the end of 2003 in 15 states. The paper identifies key characteristics of the programs—including their requirements and target time frame for compliance, acceptable and excluded renewable energy sources, alternatives to building new capacity, and potential sanctions. It also provides a summary of the amount of new renewable energy capacity constructed in response to the programs through the end of 2003. The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is expected to play an increasingly important role in the natural gas industry and in global energy markets in the next severa years. This paper characterizes the global LNG market and examines recent trends and future prospects. Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the NEMS. It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS. It discusses several changes that have been made to the buildings modules and in technology data. Both short-run and long-run own-price and cross-price elasticities are described. Results for permanent price increases and temporary shocks are also discussed. Coal Transportation Rate Sensitivity Analysis This report analyzes the impact of changes in the Wyoming Powder River Basin coal transportation rates on projected levels of electric power sector energy use and emissions by region. Variations in coal transportation rates were designated by the Surface Transportation Board (STB), and the report was used by the STB as part of a draft Environmental Impact Statement for the proposed Dakota Minnesota & Eastern Railroad. Additional information on the analysis papers and reports is available on our Web site at: |
The NEMS and the
models used for the International Energy Outlook are fully
documented each year. Documentation reports are available at www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html
Assumptions
to the Annual Energy Outlook http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/index.html
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