Executive Summary

Generation: Net generation in the United States dropped by 0.9 percent from November 2007 to November 2008. This was the fourth consecutive month that net generation was down compared to the same calendar month in 2007. The Commerce Department reported that real gross domestic product decreased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2008, and reflecting this decline, total industrial production in November 2008 as reported by the Federal Reserve was 5.5 percent lower than it had been in November 2007, the fifth consecutive month that same-month industrial production in 2008 declined from 2007. Weather conditions were consistent with the lower generation level as well.

The drop in coal-fired generation was the largest absolute fuel-specific decline from November 2007 to November 2008 as it fell by 4,380 thousand megawatthours, or 2.7 percent. Declines in Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia totaled 4,262 thousand megawatthours. Nuclear generation was down by 2.3 percent and was second only to coal-fired generation in its contribution to the national drop in net generation. The biggest drop in generation at a nuclear plant was at the Millstone facility in Connecticut, which was down for part of the month for a refueling outage. Net generation from wind sources was 42.4 percent higher than it had been in November 2007. The higher wind generation totals in Texas, California, Minnesota, and Illinois accounted for 53.1 percent of the national rise. Petroleum liquid-fired generation was 4.8 percent higher compared to a year ago, with its overall share of net generation still quite small compared to coal, nuclear, natural gas-fired, and hydroelectric sources.

Figure 1: Net Generation by Major Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), December 2007 through November 2008

Year-to-date, net generation was down 1.0 percent from 2007 levels. Net generation attributable to coal-fired plants was down 1.0 percent. Nuclear generation was down 0.2 percent. Generation from petroleum liquids was down 39.2 percent, while natural gas-fired generation was down 2.6 percent. The November increase in conventional hydroelectric generation contributed to a year-to-date total that was up 6.1 percent. The jump in November wind generation contributed to a year-to-date wind generation total that was up 33.1 percent.

Coal-fired plants contributed 48.4 percent of the Nation’s electric power, year-to-date. Nuclear plants contributed 19.4 percent, while 21.4 percent was generated at natural gas-fired plants. Of the 1.1 percent generated by petroleum-fired plants, petroleum liquids represented 0.8 percent, with the remainder from petroleum coke. Conventional hydroelectric power provided 6.4 percent of the total, while other renewables (biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind) and other miscellaneous energy sources generated the remaining 3.1 percent of electric power (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Net Generation Shares by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), Year-to-Date through November, 2008

Consumption of Fuels: Consumption of coal for power generation in November 2008 was down by 1.3 percent compared to November 2007. For the same time period, consumption of petroleum liquids was up by 9.8 percent while petroleum coke decreased by 5.5 percent. Consumption of natural gas increased by 3.4 percent.

Year-to-date, consumption of coal rose by a very small amount. Natural gas consumption decreased by 1.8 percent, while the consumption of petroleum liquids and petroleum coke fell by 37.2 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively.

Fuel Stocks, Electric Power Sector, November 2008

Total electric power sector coal stocks increased between November 2007 and November 2008 by 12.0 million tons. Stocks of bituminous coal (including coal synfuel) decreased by 2.5 percent, or 1.7 million tons between November 2007 and November 2008 (from 68.0 to 66.3 million tons). Subbituminous coal stocks grew by 13.6 million tons between November 2007 and November 2008 (from 81.9 to 95.5 million tons).

Electric power sector liquid petroleum stocks totaled 40.1 million barrels at the end of November 2008, a decrease of 10.2 percent (4.6 million barrels) from November 2007. November 2008 stocks were 0.1 percent (53 thousand barrels) higher than at the end of October 2008.

Fuel Receipts and Costs, All Sectors, November 2008

In November 2008, the price of coal to electricity generators decreased slightly from the amount which held steady for the previous 3 months. The downward trend in the prices of petroleum liquids and natural gas continued in November. Receipts of coal, petroleum liquids, and natural gas decreased from their October 2008 levels, but increased from their November 2007 levels.

The average price paid for petroleum liquids decreased significantly from $15.55 per MMBtu in October 2008 to $11.59 in November. This was a 25.5-percent decrease from October and a 10.4-percent decrease from November 2007. Receipts of petroleum liquids in November 2008 were 3.5 million barrels, a 6.8-percent decrease from October 2008 and a 1.3-percent increase from November 2007.

The average price paid for natural gas by electricity generators in November was $6.49 per MMBtu, a 4.0-percent decrease from the October 2008 level of $6.76. The November price was 8.7 percent lower than the November 2007 price of $7.11 per MMBtu. Receipts of natural gas were 530.6 million Mcf, down 14.6 percent from October 2008 and up 8.2 percent from November 2007.

The average price paid for coal in November 2008 was $2.15 per MMBtu, down 1.4 percent from the price paid in October 2008. It was 20.8 percent higher when compared with the November 2007 price of $1.78 per MMBtu. Receipts of coal in November were 89.3 million tons, down 3.7 percent when compared with October 2008 data and up 3.6 percent from November 2007. The overall price for fossil fuels was $3.24 per MMBtu in November 2008, a 6.4-percent decrease from October 2008, and a 5.5 percent increase from November 2007.

Year-to-date (January through November) 2008 prices compared to the same period last year were up 32.3 percent for natural gas, 75.8 percent for petroleum liquids, and 17.1 percent for coal. Year-to-date 2008 receipts compared to the same period last year were up 5.0 percent for natural gas and 0.4 percent for coal. Year-to-date receipts for petroleum liquids were down 14.4 percent.

Figure 3: Electric Power Industry Fuel Costs, December 2007 through November 2008

Sales, Revenue, and Average Retail Price, November 2008

The average retail price of electricity for November 2008 was 9.73 cents per kilowatthour (kWh), 2.9 percent lower than October 2008 when the average retail price of electricity was 10.02 cents per kWh, and 8.8 percent higher than November 2007, when the price was 8.94 cents per kWh. The seasonal decrease in electricity demand due to more moderate temperatures in the shoulder season continuing into November led to lower prices than in October 2008. Retail sales between November 2007 and November 2008 decreased 2.3 percent due to the slowing economy and comparably less cooling demand than November 2007. The average price of residential electricity for November 2008 increased 0.77 cents to 11.47 cents per kWh from November 2007 and was down slightly from 11.86 cents per kWh in October 2008 when cooling demand was higher. At 11.47 cents per kWh, the average residential price of electricity increased by 7.2 percent from November 2007.

Sales: For November 2008, sales in the residential sector increased by 0.3 percent while sales in the commercial and industrial sectors decreased by 0.3 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively, as compared to November 2007. For the month, total retail sales were 279.6 billion kWh, a decrease of 13.5 billion kWh from October 2008, and a decrease of 2.3 percent or 6.7 billion kWh from November 2007. Year-to-date 2008, sales were 3,445 billion kWh, corresponding to a 0.4 percent decrease over the same period in 2007.

Revenue: Total retail revenues in November 2008 were $27.2 billion, reflecting an increase in revenue of 6.2 percent from November 2007, but a $2.2 billion decrease from October 2008, reflecting a slowing demand. The revenue increase year-over-year can be attributed to higher fuel costs, while seasonality and a slowing economy influenced sales from month to month, October to November. For November 2008, residential sector retail revenues increased 7.5 percent from November 2007, while the commercial and industrial sector retail revenues increased by 6.3 and 3.7 percent respectively Year-to-date 2008, retail revenue increased to $337.8 billion, a 6.8-percent increase over the same period in 2007.

Average Retail Price: For the month, average residential retail prices slipped slightly to 11.47 cents per kWh from 11.86 cents per kWh in October 2008, although they were 7.2 percent higher than November 2007 when the price was 10.70 cents per kWh. The November 2008 average commercial retail price was 10.13 cents per kWh, a 6.6 percent increase from November 2007 and down slightly from 10.49 cents per kWh in October 2008. The average industrial retail price for November 2008 rose to 7.06 cents per kWh, a 12.4 percent increase over November 2007 and down slightly from 7.24 cents per kWh in October 2008. Year-to-date November 2008 residential prices increased by 6.3 percent when compared to the same period last year and the year-to-date average retail prices for all sectors increased to 9.81 cents per kWh, or 7.2 percent over the same period last year. (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Average Retail Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, Year-to-Date through November 2008 and 2007

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