Table of Contents
PPT Slide
Did 1998 Reflect Structural Change?
Demand
U.S. Propane Demand Sectors (1996)
PPT Slide
1998 Propane Prices Fell with Crude Oil
PPT Slide
Warm Weather Behind Demand Decline
1998 Warm Weather Kept Demand Down
Supply
Propane Production Fell in 1998
1998 Propane Net Imports Increased
Algeria Was Major Source of ‘98 Import Increase
U.S. Chemical Use & Large Storage Attracts Excess
Propane
Petroleum & Propane Market Over Supply
Average Stock Levels: Crude Market & Propane
Futures Market Incentives to Build Petroleum Stocks
New “Structure” or Cycle?
Near-Term Future
Large January Draw Did Not Remove Excess
How Might Excess Stocks Decline?
Near Term U.S. Propane Production
Major Mid-Term Growth in Atlantic Basin LPG Exports
Will Affect U.S. Imports
Uncertainties Lean Toward High Stocks
Weak Build, Large Draw to Remove Excess
Normal Stocks Possible at End of Next Winter
Conclusion
Watch for Update in EIA Winter Outlook (October 1999) |
Author: John Cook Email: jcook@eia.doe.gov
Home Page: www.eia.doe.gov
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