Annual Energy Outlook 2001

Report Contents

[Report#:DOE/EIA-0383(2001)]
December 22, 2000
(Next Release:
December, 2001)

Preface

Overview

Legislation & Regulations

Issues in Focus

Market Trends

Forecast Comparisons

Major Assumptions for the Forecasts

Summary of the AEO2001 Cases/
Scenarios
- Appendix Table G1

Model Results
   (Formats - PDF, ZIP)
    - Appendix Tables
    - Reference Case
    - 1998 to 2020

Download Report
     - Entire AEO2001 (PDF)
     - AEO2001 by Chapters
       (PDF)

Acronyms

Contacts

Related Links

Assumptions to the
    AEO2001

Supplemental Data
   to the AEO2001
     (Only available
     on the Web)
    - Regional and more
      detailed AEO 2001
      Reference Case Results
    - 1998, 2000 to 2020

NEMS Conference

Forecast Homepage

EIA Homepage

Annual Energy Outlook 2001
With Projections to 2020

Preface

The Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO2001 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses the macroeconomic projections, world oil and natural gas markets, oxygenates in gasoline, distributed electricity generation, electricity industry restructuring, and carbon dioxide emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends.

The analysis in AEO2001 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. Forecast tables for those cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Alternative cases explore the impacts of varying key assumptions in NEMS— e.g., technology penetration. The major results for the alternative cases are shown in Appendix F. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS, the AEO2001 assumptions, and the alternative cases.

The AEO2001 projections are based on Federal, State, and local laws and regulations in effect on July 1, 2000. Pending legislation and sections of existing legislation for which funds have not been appropriated are not reflected in the forecasts. Historical data used for the AEO2001 projections were the most current available as of July 31, 2000, when most 1999 data but only partial 2000 data were available. Historical data are presented in this report for comparative purposes; documents referenced in the source notes should be consulted for official data values. The projections for 2000 and 2001 incorporate the short-term projections from EIA’s September 2000 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The AEO2001 projections are used by Federal, State, and local governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. They are published in accordance with Section 205c of the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 9591), which requires the EIA Administrator to prepare annual reports on trends and projections for energy use and supply.

The projections in AEO2001 are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

Because energy markets are complex, models are simplified representations of energy production and consumption, regulations, and producer and consumer behavior. Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model structures, and assumptions used in their development.

Behavioral characteristics are indicative of real-world tendencies rather than representations of specific outcomes.

Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty. Many of the events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated, including severe weather, political disruptions, strikes, and technological breakthroughs. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources cannot be foreseen with any degree of certainty. Many key uncertainties in the AEO2001 projections are addressed through alternative cases.

EIA has endeavored to make these projections as objective, reliable, and useful as possible; however, they should serve as an adjunct to, not a substitute for, analytical processes in the examination of policy initiatives.

The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting dedicates this report
in memory of Richard Newcombe (1941-2000).
Richard worked on the coal forecasts in past AEOs; his expertise and
understanding of the coal industry, as well as his attention to detail, are greatly missed.

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