Preface

On February 3, 2004, Representative Barbara Cubin, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources of the U.S. House Committee on Resources, requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) provide an assessment of three low natural gas supply scenarios. She requested that the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 be rerun with three different assumptions, separately and combined. The three differing assumptions are as follows:

• No increased availability of Alaska natural gas,
• No significant increase in production of tight sands natural gas (or other nonconventional sources), and
• Inability to permit more than three additional average-sized liquefied natural gas off-loading facilities.

This report responds to that request. These four scenarios were analyzed using the National Energy Modeling System. These alternative cases were compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 reference case, which serves as the analytical baseline.

The legislation that established EIA in 1977 vested the organization with an element of statutory independence. EIA does not take positions on policy questions. It is the responsibility of EIA to provide timely, high-quality information and to perform objective, credible analyses in support of the deliberations of both public and private decisionmakers. This report should not be construed as representing the official position of the U.S. Department of Energy or the Administration.

The projections in the reference case used in this report are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The reference case projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral starting point that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of scheduled regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.