000
FXUS63 KSGF 172350
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

.UPDATE...

THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT GENERATED A FEW
SHOWERS TODAY CONTINUED TO SWING EAST ACROSS MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS HAD MOVED EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH MAKING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ALSO SOME INDICATION THAT PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. 

FOSTER


&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES.  

SHORTWAVE WAS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN CWA WITH
CLOUD COVER/LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AFFECTING NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF 19Z. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST BY 00Z AND SINCE MOST OF IT IS NOT MEASURING ANYWAY HAVE
LEFT OUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING OUT EAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
EXPECTED. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...WILL PROBABLY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS THAN WE
DID THIS MORNING AND LESS LIKELIHOOD OF A WIDESPREAD FROST. DID
INCLUDE PATCHY FROST WORDING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO WHICH
WILL HAVE THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND LIGHTER WIND OVERNIGHT AND BEST
CHANCE OF DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS
TO BUILD EAST AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO EASTERN MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S BUT SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST INTO THE CWA AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ADVECT IN SOME WARMER AIR.

NEXT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING HOWEVER
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL UP IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PRESENT. KEPT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
IN THE GRIDS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TIMING/LOCATION OF LARGE SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM. 12Z GFS HAS COME
MORE AROUND TO WHAT 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING AND THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS
COMING IN EVEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE WENT CLOSER
TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE SLOWED AGAIN
DEPENDING ON THE UPCOMING SOLUTIONS. BOTH ARE SHOWING A STRONG
CLOSED SYSTEM WITH 530-534 1000/500MB THICKNESS VALUES UP IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A VARIETY OF WEATHER IN THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSOURI
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. IN ADDITION PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

FOSTER


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$