Overview
USDA Agricultural Projections for 2009-18, released in February 2009, provides longrun projections for the farm sector for the next 10 years. These annual projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.
Important assumptions for the projections include:
- Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect adjustments to the global economic slowdown and the U.S. recession.
- Once the world economies recover from the current slowdown, steady economic gains support increases in consumption, trade, and prices.
- Additionally, longrun developments for global agriculture reflect continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the European Union (EU).
Key results in the projections include:
- Prices for corn, oilseeds, and many other crops remain well above their historical levels, although season-average annual prices are not projected to reach the record highs seen in the first half of 2008.
- Over the next several years, the livestock sector continues to adjust to higher feed prices seen in 2007 and 2008.
- Although net farm income initially declines from the highs of 2007 and 2008, it remains historically strong and rebounds to near-record levels in the latter part of the projections.
- U.S. retail food prices increase more than general inflation through 2011, but return to the longer term relationship of rising less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projection period.
View Highlights of the Projections
Use the list of sections in the Contents box to view the assumptions and results from the 2009-18 projections. Or see the Highlights in Full in HTML.
See Feature box above for the current report. Previous Baseline Projection Reports are also available.
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Baseline Projection Tables are available in XLS and WK1 formats.
A database for the baseline is available, covering projections for major field crops and livestock.
International Baseline Data cover supply, demand, and trade projections for major agricultural commodities.
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