000
FXUS65 KLKN 042222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 PM PST WED MAR 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER
NORTHERN CA SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT OVER
WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS EVENING SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AND INTO UTAH BY 06Z TONIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AND 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENT COUPLET OVER WHITE
PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY THROUGH 06Z. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (WWA) FOR WHITE PINE AND NRN NYE
COUNTY...BUT WILL CANCEL THE WWA FOR SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
WITH THIS AREA UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DYNAMICS. DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY
OVERNIGHT FROM SAME REASONING ABOVE. WEAK DYNAMICS OVER CWA ON
THURSDAY FOR LOW POPS AHEAD OF NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH
INTO CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A DRIER AND
COLDER AIRMASS TO CWA. JH

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. GFS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NRN NV ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH LIMITED INFLUENCE OF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN...EXPECT LOW QPF VALUES AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS ERN NV. ALSO...COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY RESULTING IN A SHORTER DURATION
OF PRECIP AS WELL. INCREASED POP TO 45 PCT ACROSS ERN NV WITH 25
PCT FURTHER WEST AROUND WINNEMUCCA AND TONOPAH. EXPECT A HIGH
POP/LOW QPF EVENT...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THESE QUICK-HITTING
SYSTEMS.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAIN STATES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&


.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS NRN NV
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A 20 PCT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS...UNTIL MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR
KELY...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ013.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR NVZ035.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ037.

&&

$$

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