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000 FXUS65 KLKN 042222 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 222 PM PST WED MAR 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHERN CA SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS EVENING SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND INTO UTAH BY 06Z TONIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENT COUPLET OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY THROUGH 06Z. THEREFORE WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (WWA) FOR WHITE PINE AND NRN NYE COUNTY...BUT WILL CANCEL THE WWA FOR SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA WITH THIS AREA UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DYNAMICS. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY OVERNIGHT FROM SAME REASONING ABOVE. WEAK DYNAMICS OVER CWA ON THURSDAY FOR LOW POPS AHEAD OF NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH INTO CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS TO CWA. JH .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. GFS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NRN NV ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH LIMITED INFLUENCE OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN...EXPECT LOW QPF VALUES AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS ERN NV. ALSO...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY RESULTING IN A SHORTER DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL. INCREASED POP TO 45 PCT ACROSS ERN NV WITH 25 PCT FURTHER WEST AROUND WINNEMUCCA AND TONOPAH. EXPECT A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THESE QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAIN STATES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS NRN NV THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A 20 PCT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...UNTIL MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR KELY...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ013. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR NVZ035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ037. && $$ 87/95