000
AGUS74 KFWR 041528
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 
1028 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

                  VALID OCTOBER 4 THROUGH OCTOBER 9

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A cluster of thunderstorms was moving across extreme northeast Texas
late this morning, as a mid level disturbance drifted across
Oklahoma.  Storms are forecast to continue moving eastward today,
and should have littleimpact on the WGRFC region.

A large upper level storms system was moving into the western U.S.
today, and was poised to bring a significant chance for
precipitation to much of the WGRFC region over the next couple days. 
The storm system is forecast to split with one piece of energy
shifting northward across the northern plains.  A second piece of
energy is forecast to dive southward over the southern Rockies on
Sunday, where it will bring scattered precipitation to the mountains
of New Mexico and southern Colorado.  As the storm system moves
across the central plains states on Monday, it will push a cold
front across the WGRFC region.  This front will provide a focus for
showers and thunderstorms over northwest Texas by Sunday night, with
precipitation sliding eastward Monday into Monday night.  With
deeper Gulf moisture being pulled northward across eastern Texas,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the strongest storms
Monday night.

By Tuesday, the storm system is forecast to shift eastward across 
the Mississippi Valley, with the cold front pushing east of the
WGRFC region.  The southern end of the front is forecast to linger
over deep south Texas, and as a result, precipitation will decrease
with light rainfall lingering over coastal and southern Texas
Tuesday into Wednesday. 

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over the mountains of New
Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 1.50 inches
are forecast over extreme northwest Texas into the eastern Texas
Panhandle.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over
northwest Texas and over the mountains of northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts around 1.00 inch are
forecast over extreme northeast Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast over central and northern Texas. 

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast over extreme eastern Texas southward along the Gulf
coast.

Rainfall forecast over eastern Texas the first of next week will
likely generate runoff.  Due to relatively dry antecedent soil
conditions over this region, runoff generated will be insufficient
to produce significant river flooding.  Elsewhere, no significant
runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Reservoir releases from Luis Leon in Mexico are slowly being 
reduced.  With this, river levels along the mainstem Rio Grande are
slowly receding.  Minor flooding is occurring at Lajitas (TGAT2) and
Johnson Ranch/Castolon (CSTT2).  Moderate flooding is dropping to
minor flooding levels in and around Presidio (PRST2, PRDT2), and
moderate flooding continues through Big Bend National Park (TELT2, 
BOQT2).  Lake Amistad is currently above its conservation pool;
therefore, releases are being made from the reservoir resulting in
moderate flooding downstream at Del Rio (DLRT2), higher than normal
flows at Eagle Pass (EPPT2), and minor flooding at Columbia Bridge
(CBBT2) and Laredo (LDOT2).  These elevated flows will continue for
the next week.  With little to no precipitation in the near future,
rainfall should not significantly impact current flows.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the WGRFC will experience increasing chances of
precipitation this weekend into the first of next week.  Dry
antecedent conditions will result in little river impacts with 
flows generally remaining near baseflow conditions.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical 
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and 
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This 
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, 
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/fop/wgrfcfop.html

MPE Precipitation Estimates:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/precip/html/mpe_estimates.shtml

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/hydromet/qpf/qpfpage.html

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml 

SHELTON


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