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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 050358
 AFDTWC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
 858 PM MST WED MAR 4 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED DRY AND RATHER WARM WITH PATCHES OF HIGH 
 CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN STATES 
 WILL BRING A MODERATE COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE 
 WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND 
 SATURDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A 
 FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH DOUGLAS AND THE 
 SAFFORD AGRICULTURAL STATION BREAKING RECORDS. DOUGLAS REACHED A 
 HIGH OF 82 DEGS WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGS SET IN 
 1991...AND SAFFORD AG REACHED 83 DEGS WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 
 81 DEGS SET IN 1972. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SPOTS APPROACHED RECORD 
 HIGHS. THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF 82 DEGS THIS 
 AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS FAR FROM THE RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1910. 
 HOWEVER...THE HIGH OF 82 DEGS WAS 11 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS 
 DATE.  
 
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OFFSHORE 
 OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS 
 SPREADING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA...SONORA AND 
 A LARGE PART OF ARIZONA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND 
 INTO THURSDAY...SO INHERITED FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS 
 STILL GOOD.   
 
 SO FAR TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT 
 LOWS...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
 FLOW GENERATED SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS SAW 
 SUSTAINED 20 FT WIND VALUES GREATER THAN 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS 
 OF 35 MPH. THE DOUGLAS ASOS AND HORSE CAMP CANYON RAWS STATION WERE 
 TWO SITES THAT MET RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES 
 BOTTOMED OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEENS IN THE LOWER VALLEY 
 LOCATIONS. NOT QUITE AS GUSTY THURSDAY...BUT EVEN STRONGER WINDS 
 EXPECTED FRIDAY... AND COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS 
 THEN.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...FETCH OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY ABOVE 15KFT 
 AGL...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS 
 DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AS THEY 
 WERE TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
 &&
 
 .PREV DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH CLOUD THICKENING THIS AFTERNOON... 
 MIXING HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED A BIT AND WINDS ARE DOWN A FEW KTS... 
 STILL SOLIDLY BREEZY.
 
 OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MILD WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND 
 WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN A FEW SPOTS. 
 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THICK PATCHES OF 
 HIGH AND MID CLOUD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL 
 CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WELL WITH THE STUBBORN RIDGE SLOWLY GIVING 
 WAY AND CORRESPONDING HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES SAGGING A BIT.
 
 THE WEEKEND SYSTEM NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WON`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY FOR 
 OUR LATITUDE WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARING THROUGH WELL NORTH OF 
 THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE LAGGING PORTION FROM NEAR 
 THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BEING DRAWN THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN 
 NEVADA AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. THE KICKER SYSTEM FROM BRITISH 
 COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE NORTH ON AN INLAND 
 TRAJECTORY SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY SKIP THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF OUR 
 AREA AS IT KICKS EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER 
 TEMPERATURES STILL IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA (WITH BEST WINDS 
 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST COOLING SATURDAY)...BUT THE PRECIP 
 COVERAGE IS LOOKING LOWER AND QPF POTENTIAL STILL RATHER MEAGER.
 
 ANOTHER INSIDE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 
 BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE REDEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BY 
 THEN...EXPECT ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW WITH WINDS AGAIN THE MAIN 
 CONCERN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
 
 &&
 
 .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
 

 
 MOLLERE
 
 WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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