|
|
Printer Friendly Version
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KPSR 050456
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST WED MAR 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...
AHEAD OF A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. PARTIAL CLEARING
ALONG WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS OUT IN CA PORTION OF CWA...WX CONDS
HAVE BEEN RATHER QUIET AROUND THE DESERT SW THIS EVENING. BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS STILL NOTED ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS THIS EVENING HAS
THINNED SOME PAST FEW HRS...BUT MODEL RH PROGS INSIST THIS BAND WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS ERN CWA THRU TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...PAC NW
TROUGH WILL DROP SWD ALONG THE CA COAST BEFORE SWINGING INLAND TO
OUR N ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER INNOCUOUS SYSTEM FOR US...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL TO OUR N. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT
IN WRN CWA...LESS WIND TOMORROW. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS
HAVE THE ABOVE SITUATION WELL IN HAND...NO UPDATES ASIDE FROM MINOR
FIRST PERIOD TWEAKS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A THINNING BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN AZ BY MIDDAY. RUC
AND NAM SHOWED EXCELLENT RH TRENDS WITH THE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE
SUBTROPICS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO DRIED
OUT IN THE LATE MORNING...AND FURTHER DRYING LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PHOENIX AREA.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FILLING THE WEST
COAST LOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BEING KICKED ALONG BY
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT SWINGS INLAND. HOWEVER...EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN
WINDS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. ONLY IN THE FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ IS THERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT ANY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS LOWERED THE CHANCE OF RAIN...AND A FURTHER
DECREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND IS WARRANTED. ALSO...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE DESERTS BY SATURDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM RACES THROUGH.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A KICKER SYSTEM CROSSES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING A DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS AZ/SRN
CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FOLLOWING
SYSTEMS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED THIS FAR SOUTH. THAT
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF ARIZONA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
NOTHING TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF R TWO SYSTEMS THAT TRACK ACROSS
THE ...AND HOW STRONG BUT BOTH AGREE ON DRY PATTERN WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE TEMPS RUNNING NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL AREA AIRFIELDS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THRU 00Z FRI...
WITH THICKEST CLOUDS OVER KPHX/KIWA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
WEST THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT OUT IN WRN AREAS SUCH AS KIPL/KBLH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS UNTIL AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...LESS WIND
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AT KPHX/KIWA WILL BEHAVE
IN A MORE NORMAL FASHION...ELY TONIGHT TURNING TO LIGHT WLY THU PM.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN CONUS MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN AZ OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
FRIDAY AND MONDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD. TUESDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S
AND HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE EXCEPT OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMMENCE AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ESTLE/SIPPLE
AVIATION...ESTLE
FIRE WEATHER...PADDOCK
|
|
Webmaster
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Phoenix Weather Forecast Office
P.O. Box 52025
Phoenix, AZ 85072
Tel: (602) 275-0073
|
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary |
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities
|
|
|