SAP4.3: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity

This report will build on recent assessments and focus on questions relevant to decision-makers. In particular, this report will focus on our ability to identify, observe, and monitor the stresses that influence agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity. The report will evaluate the relative importance of these stresses and how they are likely to change in the future. A lasting contribution of this report will be the synthesis of information on resource conditions, observation systems, and monitoring capabilities that can be used to gauge future change.

The timeframe of interest will be weighed toward the near-term (e.g. the next 25-50 years), but will include limited discussions of longer-term issues. We do not anticipate that the report will include specific scenarios of future conditions. Rather, the report will highlight the changes in resource conditions that recent scientific studies suggest are most likely to occur in response to climate change, and when and where to look for these changes.

The resources that will be addressed in this product are:

• Agriculture
  • Cropping Systems
  • Pasture and grazing lands
  • Animal management

• Land Resources
  • Forests
  • Arid Lands

• Water Resources
  • Quantity, Availability, and Accessibility
  • Quality

• Biodiversity
  • Species diversity
  • Rare and sensitive ecosystems