000
FXUS63 KUNR 201626
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
926 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE
DAY TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS QUITE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.
WIND WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS. NO UPDATED PLANNED
FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK RIDGE FROM CO INTO MN.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES DOMINATING. IT WILL BE STRONGEST
TODAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS ENERGY BREAKS IT DOWN
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. REGRESSION SHOWS LOWER 70S
FOR RAPID CITY TODAY...BUT LOWER TO MID 60S LOOKS MORE REASONABLE
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY AREAS
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS. A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST.

MAIN CHANGE OCCURS AS UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FAIRLY SHARP COLD
FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.

EXTENDED...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TRIES TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWFA ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THOUGH A SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER
THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 201037
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
337 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK RIDGE FROM CO INTO MN.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES DOMINATING. IT WILL BE STRONGEST
TODAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS ENERGY BREAKS IT DOWN
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. REGRESSION SHOWS LOWER 70S
FOR RAPID CITY TODAY...BUT LOWER TO MID 60S LOOKS MORE REASONABLE
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY AREAS
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS. A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST.

MAIN CHANGE OCCURS AS UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FAIRLY SHARP COLD
FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.

EXTENDED...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TRIES TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWFA ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THOUGH A SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER
THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

HELGESON/SCHILD

000
FXUS63 KUNR 192127
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DECREASE
EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE MOVE EASTWARD...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 22Z.

DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST HOLDS STEADY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...TUESDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY
TOMORROW...BUT NOT NEAR WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

EXTENDED...STRONG COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND...BUT MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
TIME. THUS...HAVE WARMED TEMPS ON THURSDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
THEN COVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 190939 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. 900-850MB
WINDS START THE DAY IN THE 40-55KT RANGE BUT DECREASE TO 25-35KTS
BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOIST ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST EAST OF BLACK HILLS.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH 60
ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

EXTENDED...HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP SOME ON THURSDAY AS MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR PUSH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE AS COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AS
OVERRUNNING SETS UP OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. THE WINDS WILL
START TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 3 PM MST
     /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO
     PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-
     NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO
     PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 190936
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. 900-850MB
WINDS START THE DAY IN THE 40-55KT RANGE BUT DECREASE TO 25-35KTS
BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOIST ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST EAST OF BLACK HILLS.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH 60
ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.


EXTENDED...COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VERY
STRONG WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 3 PM MST
     /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO
     PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-
     NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO
     PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 190533
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...WNW DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND WILL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. NW WINDS SHOULD CONT
AT 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION:(217 PM MST)...THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THAT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH NO PRECIP
EXPECTED. MANY AREAS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DO DECREASE
QUITE A BIT SO SHOULD NOT BE AS WINDY AS TODAY. WINDS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER STILL FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&
$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 190306 AAA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
815 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...WNW DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THRU 07Z FOR THE
FOOTHILLS FROM RAPID CITY TO STURGIS. ELSWHERE...WINDS ARE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION:(217 PM MST)...THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THAT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH NO PRECIP
EXPECTED. MANY AREAS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DO DECREASE
QUITE A BIT SO SHOULD NOT BE AS WINDY AS TODAY. WINDS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER STILL FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE FOOTHILLS FROM RAPID CITY
     TO STURGIS.
WY...NONE.

&&
$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 190002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
505 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE.
HAVE SENT NEW ZONES TO REFLECT THIS...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION:(217 PM MST)...THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THAT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH NO PRECIP
EXPECTED. MANY AREAS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DO DECREASE
QUITE A BIT SO SHOULD NOT BE AS WINDY AS TODAY. WINDS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER STILL FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&
$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 182117
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HOLDING STEADY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S. WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY AND WARNING GOING AS WINDS ARE STILL AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA
AT MANY LOCATIONS CURRENTLY.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THAT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. MANY AREAS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE DO DECREASE QUITE A BIT SO SHOULD NOT BE AS WINDY AS
TODAY. WINDS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER STILL FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VERY
STRONG WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT
     HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE
     CO PLAINS-PERKINS-SHANNON-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PENNINGTON
     CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 181631
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HOLDING STEADY OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING A DEEPER
MIXING IN THE RAPID CITY AREA...HAVE UPGRADED SOME PORTIONS OF
THE WIND ADVISORY TO A WARNING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED HIGH TEMPS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...ESPECIALLY INCREASED TEMPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE WE HAVE BEEN UNDERFORECASTING HIGHS THE PAST
FEW DAYS. NO OTHER FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
WITH FAST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY/MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...850-700MB WINDS OF 50-60KT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS ALONG
EASTERN EDGE OF BLACK HILLS. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT
DEPTH OF MIXING. WITH WARM ADVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL BE
WINDY AGAIN ON MONDAY...THROUGH 900-850MB WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER
THAN TODAY.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. THE WINDS WILL
START TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT
     HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE
     CO PLAINS-PERKINS-SHANNON-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PENNINGTON
     CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 180948
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
248 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
WITH FAST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY/MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...850-700MB WINDS OF 50-60KT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS ALONG
EASTERN EDGE OF BLACK HILLS. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT
DEPTH OF MIXING. WITH WARM ADVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL BE
WINDY AGAIN ON MONDAY...THROUGH 900-850MB WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER
THAN TODAY.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. THE WINDS WILL
START TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MST
     /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO
     PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-
     NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO
     PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 180312
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
815 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...AT 03Z NW FLOW AT SFC/ALOFT CONTS ACROSS WRN SD
AND NERN WY. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WRN ND
AND WL MOVE ACRS REGION OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE WINDS ALONG NRN/ERN FOOTHILLS TO
20-30 MPH. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 40-45MPH OVER NEXT
FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AFT 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: (130 PM MSTR) THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV
AVERAGE AND CONDITIONS DRY. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WIND SPEEDS OF 40 KTS
ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXTENDED...DRY WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AND ALLOW
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO CROSS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&
$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 172027
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
130 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST...LEAVING NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OBS HAVE BEEN SITTING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL
DAY SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 21Z. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND NEAR 50 SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND CONDITIONS DRY. WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WIND SPEEDS OF 40 KTS ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXTENDED...DRY WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AND ALLOW
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO CROSS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$