000
FXUS62 KTBW 201444
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
...FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
.UPDATE...LATEST COLD SNAP UNDERWAY WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF OVER THE E U.S. BRINGING SFC ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE PLAINS REGION PRODUCING BREEZY
WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWING STRATO CU OVER THE E GULF CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THICKEST CLOSER TO THE COAST. MAX
AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK OVER
THE NATURE COAST TO MID 50S CENTRAL ZONES AND UPPER 50S SW FL.
GUSTY WINDS TO ALSO WARRANT HEADLINE OF CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA
LAKES. FOR TONIGHT WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES
AND PROBABLY EXPAND FREEZE WARNING INTO INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ZONES. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATO CU GENERALLY ABOVE 3000FT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT KEEPING SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL E GULF AND
INLAND WATERS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS HAVE SEAS 10-12 +FT WELL OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS 20-25KTS CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED SEAS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE CWF ON TRACK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW DEWPOINTS OVER N FL TO PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
OVER LEVY AND SUMTER COUNTIES TODAY WITH LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH WITH
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 56 33 53 32 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 63 39 59 33 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 56 29 54 30 / 5 5 0 0
SRQ 57 40 55 33 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 53 23 52 19 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 56 41 54 37 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CITRUS-
HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY-
SUMTER.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DE SOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-DE
SOTO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-
POLK-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 200823
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
323 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
...FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...QUITE A POTENT FROPA THIS PAST
EVENING WITH A SHALLOW SQUALL LINE LEADING ITS PASSAGE. WITH THE
FRONT THRU...CAA WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. COLD AIR STRATO CU ALREADY FORMING OUT IN THE GULF...AND WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER WC FL THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY WON`T
GO UP MUCH IF ANY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS HOLDING
IN THE LOW-MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. IN
FACT...HIGHS FOR THE CALENDAR DAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN MORE CHILLY. OUR WIND GRIDS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY JUST BARELY
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING.
BUT NONETHELESS...CAUTION WILL BE ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN OVERNIGHT. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE
EVENT IS STILL IN STORE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. WILL UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCH TO HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES...AND FREEZE WARNING FOR PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...
AND POLK COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE WARNED AREA...READINGS
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32 IN MANY SPOTS. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL ADVY
WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION...BUT LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LEAST CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS (HELPFUL FOR FROST) WILL
ALREADY BE UNDER THE HARD FREEZE WARNING. FINALLY...STILL
EXPECTING A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM
LATER TODAY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ASSOC WITH THE STRATO CU COMING
ONSHORE FROM THE GULF. AS WE MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR SNOW PELLET MIXING IN WITH THE
SPRINKLES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FOR
NOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
NOT A BIG PROBLEM.
FOR WED...WIND BELOW 850 MB WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH...
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH AND KEEP THE STRATO CU OUT IN THE GULF.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
WED NIGHT...HIGH PRESS WILL SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE PENINSULA. CALM
WINDS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
WHAT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR US THIS WINTER SEASON. LOWS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST COUNTIES TO UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. FREEZING TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO INTERIOR LEE COUNTY! A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FROM PASCO NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY...WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FROM
HILLSBOROUGH/POLK SOUTH TO CHARLOTTE COUNTY. FROST ADVY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COUNTIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNINGS.
DAYTIME THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.CLIMATE...A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND RECORD TEMP INFORMATION. ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE SOME
RECORDS MY BE BROKEN OR CLOSE TO BEING BROKEN...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
WE WILL SEE TOO MANY RECORDS AS JANUARY 21 AND 22 OF 1985 WAS
EXTREMELY COLD AND IS WHEN MANY OF THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORDS
WERE SET. THIS STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS PIL MIAPNSTBW OR
WITHIN THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY SECTION ON OUR HOME PAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FRIDAY WEATHER AS GUIDANCE INDICATES ONE MORE NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES...BUT AGAIN NOT AS LOW AS
MEX VALUES FOR OUR COLDER SPOTS. STILL THE CHANGE WILL MEAN ANOTHER
SHOT AT A FREEZE FOR THE NATURE COAST. AFTER THAT THE AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN 10 POPS AND LEAN TOWARD CLIMO FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING MAY HAVE LEFT ENOUGH MOISTURE BEHIND FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TEMPO
GROUPS FOR KSRQ NORTH. ENVIRONMENT NEAR KFMY SHOULD STILL BE TOO
MIXED UP FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. AFTER DAYBREAK SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WIND WILL BE THE STORY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED MORNING WITH STRONG
NW WINDS. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET. WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVY FOR TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WED WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS. THEN...FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUE FOR LEVY AND SUMTER
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND
WINDS AOA 15 MPH. THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR WED WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AS WIDESPREAD LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RH EXPECTED. SIMILAR SITUATION EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...THUS A FIRE WX WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THAT DAY AS WELL.
IN FACT...DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RFW CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. RH GRIDS SHOW
SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 56 33 53 34 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 63 38 59 35 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 56 30 54 32 / 5 5 0 0
SRQ 57 38 55 35 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 53 25 52 21 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 57 41 54 42 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CITRUS-
HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY-
SUMTER.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
POLK-SARASOTA.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR HILLSBOROUGH-
PASCO-POLK.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...55/SHARP
000
FXUS62 KTBW 200050
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
750 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...AN ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS POISED TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL
JET PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE US. THE NOSE OF THIS JET
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WILL
INTRODUCE THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE CWA NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE JET MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE LIKELY IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. WILL BOOST WINDS OVER
THE GULF TO SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE JET PASSES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY PLAUSIBLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL LEAVE FINAL CALL FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE IN-DEPTH
DISCUSSION OF UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
&&
.AVIATION (20/00Z - 21/00Z)...VFR. SCT LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME
BKN MID CLOUDS KSRQ-KPIE-KTPA...AND SW WINDS 11-12KT UNTIL AN
APPROACHING FRONT ARRIVES. TIMING IS AROUND 06Z KTPA TO AROUND 08Z
KRSW. FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO WEST WITH GUSTS 18-25KT AND PROVIDES BKN
VFR CIGS. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHRA WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS
BECOME NW AND CONTINUE GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE AS BKN VFR CIGS CONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...TONIGHT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CAUSE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF EFFECTING MAINLY
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ABOUT HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTHWARD. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPRINKLES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CAN`T RULE OUT A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO AS MENTIONED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. OVERALL
THOUGH...IT WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AND BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR
IN AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS BACK
OUT OVER THE GULF. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT
SETTING UP FOR THE NATURE COAST...POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD INTO
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES. WILL PROBABLY NOT GET THE NECESSARY
3 OR MORE HOURS AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WITH SO MUCH OF THE CROPS...SUCH AS STRAWBERRIES...
IN THE AREA NEARING PEAK WILL ADD THEM TO THE FREEZE WATCH.
FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT BACK OUT INTO THE GULF...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
STATE AT THE SURFACE WITH A CONTINUED UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRI
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE WILL
CONTINUE AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE GUSTS RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRE-FRONTAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS...HIGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THAT PERIOD. TIDES MAY RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...MAYBE A FOOT OR SO...BUT DOESN`T LOOK TOO BAD AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN FAIR INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY FALL TO
AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY ACROSS LAND AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THAT
ARE EXPECTED WE COULD SEE CRITICAL VALUES REACHED. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LEVY AND NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS ALSO
SHOW AFTERNOON VALUES MEETING RFW CRITERIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 52 56 33 54 / 20 10 10 0
FMY 59 63 38 60 / 20 10 10 0
GIF 49 56 31 55 / 20 5 5 0
SRQ 54 58 37 56 / 20 10 10 0
BKV 45 51 25 53 / 30 10 10 0
SPG 53 56 40 55 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20
NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 191845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...TONIGHT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CAUSE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF EFFECTING MAINLY
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ABOUT HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTHWARD. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPRINKLES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CAN`T RULE OUT A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO AS MENTIONED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. OVERALL
THOUGH...IT WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AND BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR
IN AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS BACK
OUT OVER THE GULF. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT
SETTING UP FOR THE NATURE COAST...POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD INTO
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES. WILL PROBABLY NOT GET THE NECESSARY
3 OR MORE HOURS AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WITH SO MUCH OF THE CROPS...SUCH AS STRAWBERRIES...
IN THE AREA NEARING PEAK WILL ADD THEM TO THE FREEZE WATCH.
FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT BACK OUT INTO THE GULF...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
STATE AT THE SURFACE WITH A CONTINUED UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRI
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE WILL
CONTINUE AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE GUSTS RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRE-FRONTAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS...HIGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THAT PERIOD. TIDES MAY RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...MAYBE A FOOT OR SO...BUT DOESN`T LOOK TOO BAD AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN FAIR INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY FALL TO
AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY ACROSS LAND AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THAT
ARE EXPECTED WE COULD SEE CRITICAL VALUES REACHED. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LEVY AND NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS ALSO
SHOW AFTERNOON VALUES MEETING RFW CRITERIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 52 56 33 54 / 20 10 10 0
FMY 59 63 38 60 / 20 10 10 0
GIF 49 56 31 55 / 20 5 5 0
SRQ 54 58 37 56 / 20 10 10 0
BKV 45 51 25 53 / 20 10 10 0
SPG 53 56 40 55 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190824
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
...TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SIGNIF FREEZE POSSIBLE...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN ZONES ATTM...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY 12Z THEN SOUTH
OF FMY BY 18Z. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WILL CARRY ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WX
GRIDS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINIMAL
TEMP CHANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THE MORE SIGNIF FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS
OUR CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW
WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL HOLD POPS TO 20 PRCNT TONIGHT. IT WILL TURN
WINDY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG CAA THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING
LOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND MAYBE 5-8 DEGREES FROM MORNING
LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
DAY MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT NIGHT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RIGHT BEFORE
FROPA.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL TAKE SHAPE LATER TUESDAY...WITH STRONG LLVL CAA
SETTING UP AN UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY THICK STRATO CU DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND MOVING
ONSHORE OVER WC FL ON NW WINDS. NAM AND GFS CLEARLY DEPICT THESE
CLOUDS IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY
MID-LATE TUESDAY...WHICH THEN AFFECT MUCH OF OUR CWA (EXCEPT FAR
INTERIOR ZONES) TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER
WHICH THE AVG WIND IN THAT LAYER WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
PUSH THE CLOUDS SOUTH AND KEEP THEM IN THE GULF. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER IN THIS CASE...THE FREEZING
LEVEL BY 00Z WED WILL BE AROUND 2500 FT WITH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. INITIALLY THIS
WOULD SUGGEST FROZEN PRECIP...BUT THE COLDEST TEMP WITHIN THIS CLOUD
LAYER WILL ONLY BE ABOUT -6C...WHICH NORMALLY ISN`T COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION...LEAVING SUPERCOOLED WATER IN THAT
LAYER (NOTED STRONG INVERSION AND WARMING ABOVE 850 MB). ITS WORTH
NOTING THOUGH...ONE LAST VORT MAX WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS N FL AROUND 00Z. THAT ALONG WITH LLVL CONVECTIVE LIFT
COULD POTENTIALLY COOL THE MOIST LAYER ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...
WHICH WOULD HELP INITIATE THE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION NEEDED TO MIX
THE SUPERCOOLED RAIN DROPS WITH SNOW. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR
FROM PASCO CO SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BUT ITS WELL WORTH MENTIONING THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
OR PELLETS MIXED WITH THE SPRINKLES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD
TUESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT WITH 3+ HOURS OF
FREEZING TEMPS IS SHAPING UP FOR AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. TEMPS
MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS FROM
TAMPA BAY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS PGD EARLY WED MORNING. WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR WED MORNING FROM PASCO NORTHWARD TO LEVY COUNTY.
FOR THE REST OF WED...STRATO CU WILL SHIFT BACK OUT INTO THE
GULF...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIGHT OVER THE
PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD MEAN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO...IF NOT COLDER
THAN...THOSE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE POSITIVE FOR KEEPING
TEMPERATURES UP SOME IS THAT THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL HAVE SPENT 24
HOURS MODIFYING OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY. STILL...AS OF
THIS FORECAST HAVE DECIDED TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO INTERIOR CHARLOTTE COUNTY...LEAVING ALL COUNTIES BUT LEE
AND PINELLAS WITH SOME THREAT FOR A FREEZE. A HARD FREEZE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS THE MEX
GUIDANCE FOR KBKV...BUT STILL HAVE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S THERE!
EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MORE ZONAL FLOW FINALLY WILL MEAN A GOOD SHOT AT
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY THEN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE TO
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS MODIFICATION. ONLY HICCUP WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND MAY BE A FRONT DESCENDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. HAVE GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW...BUT IF
THAT FRONT MOVES IN QUICKER...WE MAY STAY CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z AND POSSIBLY 10Z...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TERMINALS BEFORE THIS LINE...AND HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THERE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LIFT BY MID
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE GUSTY IN NATURE.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
SCA CRITERIA OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE BAY BY THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT OFFSHORE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
DAYTIME WED. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS...
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVY
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR THAT PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY
THU MORNING AND WILL REMAIN FAIR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES
SETTLING OVER OUR WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS. DRY AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS THAT
ARE EXPECTED WILL WARRANT A FIRE WX WATCH FOR LEVY CO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ON WED WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES MUCH OF
THE DAY...SO EXPECT TO SEE A RFW ISSUED FOR THAT DAY AS WELL. LONG
TERM RH GRIDS SHOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES MEETING RFW CRITERIA THU
AND FRI AFTERNOONS AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 51 56 33 / 10 20 10 10
FMY 75 58 63 37 / 20 10 10 10
GIF 72 49 56 31 / 10 20 10 10
SRQ 70 54 57 37 / 20 20 10 10
BKV 70 45 53 25 / 10 20 10 10
SPG 70 53 56 40 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...55/SHARP
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190036
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
736 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAVE
JUST BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SHOWERS IS MOVING DIRECTLY TO
THE EAST WITH THE BAND THINNING SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL TREND AS WELL...AND WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA...IT
IS PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT WILL SHOW CONTINUED STRETCHING AND
SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A MORE POTENT FRONT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
POISED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD OVER FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS FROM
HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD SEEING FREEZING TEMPS. THE
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS AGAIN INDICATING
A SCENARIO WHERE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AS A DECK OF STRATUS STREAMS OFF THE
GULF OVER WESTERN FLORIDA AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY COLD LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. EVEN MODEL SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THAT IF
PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD SUPPORT
FLAKES. THE SITUATION WILL TRULY HINGE ON HOW MUCH STRATUS
DEVELOPS...ITS THICKNESS...AND WHERE THE MID-LEVEL WINDS STEER THE
DECK. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES AS THE SITUATION DRAWS CLOSER.
&&
.AVIATION (19/00Z - 20/00Z)...VFR WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND SW
WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT WHEN A NARROW BAND OF SHRA AND BKN035 MOVES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN LATE NIGHT AND
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS BECOME NW AND WEST BEHIND THIS BAND
AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 54 69 50 58 / 50 10 20 10
FMY 57 73 57 65 / 30 20 10 20
GIF 53 71 48 58 / 40 10 20 10
SRQ 56 69 51 59 / 40 10 20 10
BKV 47 68 40 53 / 50 10 20 10
SPG 55 68 51 56 / 50 10 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20
TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181936
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THE WAY FOR MIDWEEK...
.SHORT TERM...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FIRST
FRONT WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE WEST MONDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ON MONDAY SO LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG IT SO WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF SHOWER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING STRATOCUMULUS IN
OFF THE GULF. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
TO CAUSE SOME GULF EFFECT SPRINKLES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW FAIR CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A SHALLOW
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 850MB STILL
IN THE -5 TO -7C RANGE. THEREFORE...SOME PERIODS OF COLD LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARDS COLDER VALUES...AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FORMS
OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS THEN GETS PUSHED ONSHORE BY THE
PREVAILING NW FLOW.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSURE A COOL WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND TAMPA BAY TO LOWER
60S SOUTHWARD. ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
HELP IN KEEPING MORNING LOWS COLD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALUES NEAR
OR AT FREEZING AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IF
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. BUT ITS STILL EARLY TO FULLY EMBRACE
THIS LATEST TREND AND WILL WAIT FOR UPCOMING GUIDANCE BEFORE
DROPPING CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS EVEN FURTHER.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE PERSISTENT COLD SPELL WITH
HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING UP INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S
SOUTHWARD...THEN FINALLY BREAKING THE 70 DEGREES MARK BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEPARTS TO OUR NW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SEVERAL ENERGY IMPULSES DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION RIDING ALONG A BROAD U/L JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH.
BUT SO FAR GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIR AGREEMENT IN KEEPING ENOUGH LEFTOVER
RIDGING AT THE SFC...ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BLOCKAGE AND KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WITH THE RIDGE ORIENTED E-W
AND POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO OUR NE...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E/SE
DURING THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MUCH WELCOMED WARMING TREND WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
WHEN LOWERING CEILINGS AND PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR FROM ABOUT 05-09Z AT
TPA...PIE AND SRQ...THEN FROM 08-12Z AT FMY AND RSW. VFR SHOULD
THEN RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES ON MONDAY LATE MORNING WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 54 69 50 58 / 50 10 20 10
FMY 57 73 57 65 / 30 20 10 20
GIF 53 71 48 58 / 40 10 20 10
SRQ 56 69 51 59 / 40 10 20 10
BKV 47 68 40 53 / 50 10 20 10
SPG 55 68 51 56 / 50 10 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20
TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181415
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH
SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ACROSS MAINLY THE NATURE
COAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT
FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LEADING TO SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST TOWARD SUNSET. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. PRESENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND WILL ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM
NATURE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL FROM THE NW AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 8000-10000
FEET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...THEN
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY ADVISORY RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND REMAIN IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE
NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. PRESENT MARINE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE
MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 53 67 50 / 5 50 10 10
FMY 71 57 73 56 / 5 20 20 10
GIF 70 52 69 48 / 5 40 10 10
SRQ 68 55 68 48 / 5 40 10 10
BKV 69 47 66 39 / 5 50 10 10
SPG 66 55 66 50 / 5 50 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSIONMARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...22/REYNES
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180746
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
...ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR COMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEFINED
BY THE MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER US ATTM WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SE TODAY AS
THE NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE IT TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. FOR
OUR AREA TODAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PENINSULA NOW WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY FROM THE NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD START (WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS OUR COLDER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS)...TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 60S NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY TO UPPER 60S-LOW 70S TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO FMY.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS W CNTRL FL TONIGHT...
MAKING IT JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. MOS GUID PRETTY
HIGH WITH POPS...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER US NOW...PREFER
TO GO JUST BELOW MOS...WITH HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT AROUND 50 PRCNT
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH TO LEVY CO...THEN LESSENING FARTHER SOUTH TO 20
PRCNT NEAR FMY. FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT OUR CWA BY NOON MON...SO
WILL CARRY A 20 POPS FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID DAY MON.
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND
DIVING SOUTHWARD AS WELL) WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE...AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS THIS SECOND FRONT THAT WILL
BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...ONE OF THE
COLDEST AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON. GFS/MAV IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM/MET WITH RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SECOND FRONT.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE...AND WITH W TO WNW MID-UPR FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SHORT
WAVES...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE SECOND FRONT. SO FOR NOW
WILL STAY BELOW MAV AND HOLD POPS TO 20 PRCNT FOR TUE. TURNING
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH SIGNIF
CAA COMMENCING RIGHT AFTER FROPA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND UPR 50S CENTRAL
ZONES. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR WILL AGAIN SPILL DOWN THE PENINSULA ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT -7C
OVER LEVY COUNTY TO -4C NEAR TAMPA. AT THAT SAME TIME...COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A RAW EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT COLD RAIN OR SPRINKLES INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CURRENT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW
FLURRIES...BUT IF WE TREND A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER IT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TO SEE A FLURRY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. AGAIN...WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY OF THE WHITE STUFF...BUT THIS PATTERN HAS
YIELDED A FEW FLAKES IN THE PAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IT WON`T BE GETTING
VERY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH...WITH UPPER 50S COMMON AROUND THE BAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD WITH NO CLOUDS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HAVE MOVED ON
BY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. I HAVE STAYED ABOVE 00Z GUIDANCE...CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS 12Z GUIDANCE SINCE PRIOR TO YESTERDAY THIS AIRMASS WAS
NOT SUPPOSED TO BE SO COLD. STILL...I BROUGHT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE INTERIOR OF HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY WITH SOME MID
20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE NATURE COAST.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST COOL DAY OF THIS LONG LIVED COLD SNAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S AWAY FROM THE
COAST AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WE WILL SEE A 30+ DEGREE REBOUND IN
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MID WEST
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BUILD A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM EVEN MORE. THE END RESULT LEAVES US WITH
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING THE COLD AIR LOCKED TO OUR NORTH WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LOSING IDENTITY BEFORE REACHING OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AROUND
10000 FEET TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ATTM WILL TURN TO THE SW AND
INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SPEEDS WILL REACH
15-20KT NORTH OF TAMPA BAY BY 7 PM...SO WILL HEADLINE SCEC ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN WATERS FOR LATER TODAY. SPEEDS WILL MAX OUT RIGHT
AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL
ALSO HEADLINE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A MORE SIGNIF WIND EVENT WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY WITH STRONG
CAA OVER THE WATERS AFTER FROPA. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25KT BY 7AM TUE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER OUR WATERS. ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT STRONG NW WINDS AND ASSOC ONSHORE ENERGY MAY
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...HIGH SURF CONDITIONS...AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS TODAY AND MONDAY WITH RH ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES. RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 35 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...BUT CLOUDS
AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP NUMBERS ABOVE RFW CRITERIA. THE MORE
SIGNIF DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WELL INTO RFW CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 53 67 50 / 5 50 10 10
FMY 71 57 73 56 / 5 20 20 10
GIF 70 52 69 48 / 5 40 10 10
SRQ 68 55 68 48 / 5 40 10 10
BKV 69 47 66 39 / 5 50 10 10
SPG 66 55 66 50 / 5 50 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
LEVY-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...63/JILLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180106
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
806 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS WESTERN FLORIDA.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 5 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
CALM WINDS BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
CREPT UP FROM VALUES IN PLACE LAST NIGHT...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE INCREASED DIFFICULTY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED THE FREEZE LAST NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE FROST
ADVISORY NORTH OF THE BAY...WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HILLSBOROUGH AND PASCO COUNTIES. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALSO FAVOR VERY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PRONE LOCATIONS INLAND OF POPULATION
CENTERS. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE.
BOTTOM-LINE...RESIDENTS WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN INLAND
AREAS...AS WELL AS AREAS FROM INTERIOR HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
NORTHWARD...SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED IN HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY...AND PRONE AREAS OF
SUMTER COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION (18/00Z - 19/00Z)...VFR PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME LIMITED
CIRRUS ALONG WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN THE SOUTH. TAFS
ARE A WIND FORECAST WITH LIGHT NE OR ENE MOST OF THE
NIGHT...BECOMING VARIABLE AFT SUNRISE...SHIFTING TO SW LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 44 68 52 64 / 0 5 40 10
FMY 44 71 57 70 / 0 5 20 20
GIF 43 70 50 66 / 0 5 40 10
SRQ 40 68 53 65 / 0 5 40 10
BKV 33 69 44 63 / 0 5 40 10
SPG 49 66 54 63 / 0 5 40 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
LEVY-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 171902
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
202 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND STRETCH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INLAND AREAS AND REMAIN IN THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO SET US UP FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND IN
SOME OF THE OTHER NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.
ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TO MAINLY THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD THANKS TO
THE CLOUDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. MONDAY WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS FROM
NEAR 60 FAR NORTH TO NEAR 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS WITH THE
TAIL-END OF A MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION EVENT IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING WON`T DROP MUCH FROM THE
TREND VALUES OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. BOTH NAM/GFS MAKE VERY LITTLE OF THIS FEATURE...IN FACT...
THE BOUNDARY ITSELF IS HARDLY IDENTIFIABLE IN GFS EITHER 00Z OR
12Z. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LITTLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE AND CURRENT ISOLATED/20 POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND IS BEING REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REACH THE STATE ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO REACH THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL RETAIN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PUSH THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE STATE.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN LIGHT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND GENERALLY REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DECREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER THIS AFTERNOON NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED UNTIL MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 44 68 52 64 / 0 5 40 10
FMY 44 71 57 70 / 0 5 20 20
GIF 43 70 50 66 / 0 5 40 10
SRQ 40 68 53 65 / 0 5 40 10
BKV 33 69 44 63 / 0 5 40 10
SPG 49 66 54 63 / 0 5 40 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
LEVY-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES
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