000
FXUS62 KTAE 201418
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE 14 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE 12 UTC KTAE SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERE WAS BELOW FREEZING...WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA.
ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS TO ABOUT 4500 FT THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OF
COURSE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. THE EARLY
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. A FEW/SCT LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS DROPPED AN AREA OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER BASIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY 18 JAN.
ONLY A FEW MINOR RISES ON THE ORDER OF ONE HALF FOOT WERE NOTED ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCLUDED...
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVERS.
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE KINCHAFOONEE...MUCKALEE...OCHLOCKONEE AND
WITHLACHOOCHEE.
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LITTLE RIVER NR MIDWAY...NEW RIVER NEAR SUMATRA
AND SOPCHOPPY RIVER.
ALL OTHER CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS SE ALABAMA...SW GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE IN RECESSION OR AT BASE FLOW.
NO RIVERS ARE ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
HENRY...HOUSTON.
GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
TURNER...WORTH.
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM
CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...
DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...
FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GIBBS
HYDRO...LANIER
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KTAE 200735
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
...ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK ON THE WAY WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...THE VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS N AMERICA THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH IN THE E AND A SHARP
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SWRN STATES NWD INTO WRN CANADA. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED E OF THE AREA AND TAKEN YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL
WITH IT. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS DROPPING SWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. YET ANOTHER VORT CENTER IS TOPPING
THE WRN RIDGE. CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL S CAROLINA. AN
ARCTIC FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. IN ITS WAKE, A VERY
TIGHT GRADIENT IS USHERING IN STRONG CAA AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
HOLDING TEMPS BELOW 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OUR
NRN TIER ZONES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. IT WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW OUT THERE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS,
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WHEN WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE IN THE 20S. WINDS OVER THE LARGER AREA LAKES WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 20-25 KT...ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
THE MS VALLEY ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
AROUND 06Z WITH THE TROUGH REACHING ITS HIGHEST AMPLITUDE AROUND
THIS TIME. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE E FROM TX TO
SRN MS FROM 00-12Z WED. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED ON THE MIN TEMP
FORECAST WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. MOST AREAS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 20S WITH ONLY THE COLDEST RURAL AREAS IN THE ERN BIG BEND AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY DIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW 20. OVERALL FREEZE DURATIONS
WILL RUN ABOUT 10-11 HOURS OVER INLAND AREAS AND ABOUT 7 HOURS AT
THE COAST. WE WILL UPGRADE THE HARD FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING. MOST
AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (OR NEAR DOWNTOWN TALLAHASSEE) WILL
NOT SEE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL ONLY MODIFY SLIGHTLY ON WED WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY 06Z THU,
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FAR NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NRN
FL. WINDS WILL GO CALM AND SET UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME AREAS WILL GET ANOTHER HARD FREEZE. IN FACT, PARTS
OF THE FL BIG BEND MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ON
THU MORNING THAN ON WED MORNING. THE MAV NUMBERS SHOWING 17 AT TLH
ARE TOO LOW. A HARD FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE DAY
SHIFT FOR WED NIGHT. AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PULLS E OF FL ON
THU, TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS SWING AROUND TO A SLY DIRECTION. HIGH TEMPS ON THU
WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF PLUNGING ARCTIC COLD FRONTS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN UNFOLDS. THIS WILL BRING
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS DEPICTED THE FRONT STALLING TO THE
NORTHWEST...BUT NOW THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF OF DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT STALLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM EMERGES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY.
POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
CATEGORY. AFTER A COOL START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SAT.
DECISION TO RAISE A GALE WARNING EARLIER WAS A REASONABLE ONE BASED
ON THE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED AT
BUOY 42036. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LOOSEN A BIT
AND THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL
THEREFORE LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AT 09Z. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR SHORE AND UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OFFSHORE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD ALONG THE
GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON WED. AS THE HIGH MOVES E OF THE
AREA, ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON THU AND REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SCOUR OUT RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE GA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY MORNING. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR LONG DURATIONS OF SUB-35
PERCENT RH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FL ZONES TODAY. ACROSS THE AL
AND GA ZONES...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-25 PERCENT RH ARE EXPECTED...AND
WILL ADD REMARKS IN THE MORNING FWF. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA-WIDE FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH WILL
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. ON
THURSDAY...THE DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE GA AND FL BIG BEND
ZONES...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST AS ONSHORE
FLOW COMMENCES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 49 22 51 20 60 / 00 00 00 00 00
PANAMA CITY 49 28 51 33 60 / 00 00 00 00 00
DOTHAN 46 23 50 27 61 / 00 00 00 00 00
ALBANY 46 21 50 24 59 / 00 00 00 00 00
VALDOSTA 47 22 49 23 59 / 00 00 00 00 00
CROSS CITY 49 21 52 21 61 / 00 00 00 00 00
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM
CST/ WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO
5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALL ZONES.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING NEAR SHORE
WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...JAMSKI
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL
000
FXUS62 KTAE 200259 AAA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
UPDATED CWF TO ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OFFSHORE
UNTIL 4AM TUES. RECENT OFFSHORE BUOYS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KTS. GUSTS
SHOULD DROP BELOW 35KTS TOWARD SUNRISE.
__________________________________________________________________
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 715 PM EST...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY IN TAYLOR COUNTY FL.
TEMPS RANGED FROM AROUND 50 SE ALA/SW GA TO AROUND 60 COAST. WINDS
RANGED FROM LIGHT SE ACROSS SE BIG BEND UP TO NW 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS WRN THIRD OF CWA. THIS IN LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT BEINMG NIGHTTIME AND BELIEVE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT SO WILL NOT ISSUE PRODUCT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BIG PIX REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGE OVER WRN
CONUS AND TROUGH OVER ERN 1/3RD OF COUNTRY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL SHARPEN THE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
RESPONSIBLE FOR GUIDING YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR INTO SE
REGION.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
ABOVE SHORTWAVE ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLOGENESIS AND
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL CAROLINAS AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. AT 7 PM EST...PER MSAS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW SWWD
ACROSS S/CNTRL GA...TO LOW OVER APALACHICOLA AND INTO THE ADJACENT
GULF. LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY 06Z TUES AND
THEN RACE N/NE INTO ATLC BY SUNRISE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH
OVER TEXAS AND LOW OVER CAROLINA COAST IS PROMOTING AN INCREASINGLY
TIGHT N/NW GRADIENT OVER CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND UNDER DEEPENING TROUGH...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST AND BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY)...
ABOVE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST IS MOVING
SOUTH TO APPROACH FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THUS...IN WAKE OF
FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THIS REFLECTED IN REGIONAL OBS...I.W. EVENING TEMPS IN 50S JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT...DOWN TO LOW-MID 40S ACROSS CNTRL ALA DOWN TO MID 30S
WRN ALA. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR THIS REAL COLD AIR TO FILTER
INTO CWA OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE THIRD OF CWA. FORECAST WILL SHOW
MINS FROM AROUND 30 SE ALA TO AROUND 40 SE BIG BEND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN CREATING MODERATE TO BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT
AND BRISK AND GUSTY FLOW ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...H85 TEMPS
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -6C TO -10C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SUCH A COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 50F ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ZFP UPDATED FOR 1ST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR MORE ACTIVE EVENING WEATHER ALONG FRONT..AND TO TWEAK CLOUDS AND
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES.
ADDITIONALLY...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL SITES
SHOULD BE CLEAR BY DAYBREAK WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING STEADILY THIS EVENING AHEAD/BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AT 7 PM EST...BUOY OBS WELL OFFSHORE CURRENTLY RUNNING
AROUND 25KT WITH UP TO 10 FOOT SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REST OF TONIGHT BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WILL TWEAK UP SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE IN EVENING CWF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY DUE
TO BOTH RH DURATION AND DISPERSION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE DRY AIRMASS
SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
HENRY...HOUSTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
HENRY...HOUSTON.
GA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...
BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...
DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...
SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
TURNER...WORTH.
FL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
GM...GALE WARNING OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 4 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS.
&&
$$
BLOCK/BARRY
000
FXUS62 KTAE 200037
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
720 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 715 PM EST...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY IN TAYLOR COUNTY FL.
TEMPS RANGED FROM AROUND 50 SE ALA/SW GA TO AROUND 60 COAST. WINDS
RANGED FROM LIGHT SE ACROSS SE BIG BEND UP TO NW 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS WRN THIRD OF CWA. THIS IN LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT BEINMG NIGHTTIME AND BELIEVE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT SO WILL NOT ISSUE PRODUCT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BIG PIX REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGE OVER WRN
CONUS AND TROUGH OVER ERN 1/3RD OF COUNTRY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL SHARPEN THE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
RESPONSIBLE FOR GUIDING YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR INTO SE
REGION.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
ABOVE SHORTWAVE ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLOGENESIS AND
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL CAROLINAS AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. AT 7 PM EST...PER MSAS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW SWWD
ACROSS S/CNTRL GA...TO LOW OVER APALACHICOLA AND INTO THE ADJACENT
GULF. LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY 06Z TUES AND
THEN RACE N/NE INTO ATLC BY SUNRISE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH
OVER TEXAS AND LOW OVER CAROLINA COAST IS PROMOTING AN INCREASINGLY
TIGHT N/NW GRADIENT OVER CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND UNDER DEEPENING TROUGH...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST AND BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY)...
ABOVE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST IS MOVING
SOUTH TO APPROACH FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THUS...IN WAKE OF
FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THIS REFLECTED IN REGIONAL OBS...I.W. EVENING TEMPS IN 50S JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT...DOWN TO LOW-MID 40S ACROSS CNTRL ALA DOWN TO MID 30S
WRN ALA. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR THIS REAL COLD AIR TO FILTER
INTO CWA OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE THIRD OF CWA. FORECAST WILL SHOW
MINS FROM AROUND 30 SE ALA TO AROUND 40 SE BIG BEND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN CREATING MODERATE TO BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT
AND BRISK AND GUSTY FLOW ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...H85 TEMPS
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -6C TO -10C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SUCH A COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 50F ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ZFP UPDATED FOR 1ST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR MORE ACTIVE EVENING WEATHER ALONG FRONT..AND TO TWEAK CLOUDS AND
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES.
ADDITIONALLY...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL SITES
SHOULD BE CLEAR BY DAYBREAK WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING STEADILY THIS EVENING AHEAD/BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AT 7 PM EST...BUOY OBS WELL OFFSHORE CURRENTLY RUNNING
AROUND 25KT WITH UP TO 10 FOOT SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REST OF TONIGHT BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WILL TWEAK UP SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE IN EVENING CWF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY DUE
TO BOTH RH DURATION AND DISPERSION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE DRY AIRMASS
SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
HENRY...HOUSTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
HENRY...HOUSTON.
GA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...
BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...
DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...
SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
TURNER...WORTH.
FL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
BLOCK/BARRY
000
FXUS62 KTAE 191928
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
228 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LEADING EDGE OF
THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FRONT TO MAKES ITS WAY QUICKLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST TONIGHT. AS THIS BEGINS THIS EVENING...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
BIG BEND.
OTHERWISE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -6C TO -10C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY TO
REACH 50F ANYWHERE IN THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODIFY A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE ZERO...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TO SEE AFTERNOON TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 50S.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE PRIMARILY FORCED BY COLD ADVECTION WITH THE SFC HIGH LOCATED
WEST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SFC WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE.
WITHOUT CALM WINDS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS
FORECAST FOR TLH BY THE GFS MOS. THE NAM MOS HAS A MORE UNIFORM
SET OF LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND
FITS BETTER WITH THE ADVECTION PATTERN. HAVE GONE WITH LOWER 20S FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL ISSUE A HARD FREEZE WATCH.
THE COLD ADVECTION IS OVER WITH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH H85
TEMPS WARMING BACK JUST ABOVE ZERO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH WILL END UP IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO DECOUPLE.
HAVE KEPT THURSDAY MORNING LOWS ACROSS THIS AREA CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF THURSDAY
MORNING ENDS UP BEING COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERN
AREAS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER BEING FARTHER AWAY OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE ERN TROUGH LIFTS AWAY AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP ONE MORE NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS WEDNESDAY MORNING...MANY OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS DOWN IN THE MID
20S THURSDAY MORNING...FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE...SO WILL TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST TO TX BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 4-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND 8-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL LOCATED WEST OF OUR
TERMINALS...BUT RAPIDLY APPROACHING AS INDICATED BY WIND SHIFT LINE
FROM KBHM TO KNEW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 06Z. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SPREADING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS
THINNING WITH TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO INDICATE A
TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT ABY AND DHN. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
DAYBREAK WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BUOY OBS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 20KT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL GRADULLY DROP OFF
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN FLORIDA TOMORROW DUE TO
BOTH RH DURATION AND DISPERSION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE DRY AIRMASS
SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 64 34 49 22 51 / 0 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 38 49 32 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 60 31 45 23 50 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 59 32 46 23 50 / 10 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 62 34 47 22 51 / 0 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 40 49 23 52 / 0 20 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
HENRY...HOUSTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
HENRY...HOUSTON.
GA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...
BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...
DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...
SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
TURNER...WORTH.
FL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
CAMP/GODSEY/WOOL
000
FXUS62 KTAE 190913 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
...A BRIEF WARMUP TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST
TUESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...IR SATELLITE/RUC80 500 MB COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER MOVING EASTWARD...WITH
A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...EASTERN FL
BIG BEND...AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MARINE AREA...WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS FROM 8 TO 10 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRED FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS AT 1 AM EST...BUT WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SHARP RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER
THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY...DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SURGE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC
AIR MASS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10C ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
40S. IT WILL ALSO BE BRISK WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...MAKING
IT FEEL 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED. THE PAST THREE
RUNS OF THE MAV ARE TRENDING UPWARD WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AWAY FROM THE COAST CONSIDERING SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
BECOME CALM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV
MOS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE ERN TROUGH LIFTS AWAY AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP ONE MORE NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS WEDNESDAY MORNING...MANY OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS DOWN IN THE MID
20S THURSDAY MORNING...FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE...SO WILL TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST TO TX BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 4-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND 8-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...YESTERDAY`S RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND MOIST AND THEN
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS HAS SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KVLD...KABY...KTLH AND KPFN BEFORE WINDS PICK UP
OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD DOWN TO VLIFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KT AND GUSTS FREQUENTLY OVER 20
KT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT WILL DECREASE
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS DEVELOPING. A PROLONG PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE MARINE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR TODAY FOR OUR I-10 FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
BRIEF DURATIONS OF RH AOB 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH 20-FT WINDS OF 15
MPH OR GREATER. A WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR ALL OF OUR FL ZONES FOR
TUESDAY WHEN REQUIRED LOW RH DURATIONS WILL EASILY BE REACHED. MIN RH
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 25 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST AL AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST GA. DURATIONS AND WINDS WILL NOT QUITE BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
MEET THE MORE RIGOROUS RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AL AND GA. RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SUNDAY`S QPF VERIFIED WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH MEASURED
THROUGHOUT THE HSA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR AREA RIVER
BASINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 65 36 48 19 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 65 38 48 28 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 62 32 45 23 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 61 33 46 22 51 / 10 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 35 46 21 51 / 0 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 40 47 20 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WALTON...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON AND WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL
ZONES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL
WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA
FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...WOOL
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KTAE 190759
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
...A BRIEF WARMUP TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST
TUESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...IR SATELLITE/RUC80 500 MB COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER MOVING EASTWARD...WITH
A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...EASTERN FL
BIG BEND...AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MARINE AREA...WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS FROM 8 TO 10 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRED FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS AT 1 AM EST...BUT WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SHARP RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER
THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY...DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SURGE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC
AIR MASS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10C ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
40S. IT WILL ALSO BE BRISK WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...MAKING
IT FEEL 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED. THE PAST THREE
RUNS OF THE MAV ARE TRENDING UPWARD WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AWAY FROM THE COAST CONSIDERING SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
BECOME CALM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV
MOS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE ERN TROUGH LIFTS AWAY AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP ONE MORE NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS WEDNESDAY MORNING...MANY OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS DOWN IN THE MID
20S THURSDAY MORNING...FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE...SO WILL TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST TO TX BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 4-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND 8-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...YESTERDAY`S RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND MOIST AND THEN
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS HAS SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KVLD...KABY...KTLH AND KPFN BEFORE WINDS PICK UP
OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD DOWN TO VLIFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KT AND GUSTS FREQUENTLY OVER 20
KT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT WILL DECREASE
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS DEVELOPING. A PROLONG PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE MARINE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR TODAY FOR OUR I-10 FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
BRIEF DURATIONS OF RH AOB 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH 20-FT WINDS OF 15
MPH OR GREATER. A WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR ALL OF OUR FL ZONES FOR
TUESDAY WHEN REQUIRED LOW RH DURATIONS WILL EASILY BE REACHED. MIN RH
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 25 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST AL AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST GA. DURATIONS AND WINDS WILL NOT QUITE BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
MEET THE MORE RIGOROUS RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AL AND GA. RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SUNDAY`S QPF VERIFIED WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH MEASURED
THROUGHOUT THE HSA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR AREA RIVER
BASINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 65 36 48 19 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 65 38 48 28 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 62 32 45 23 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 61 33 46 22 51 / 10 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 35 46 21 51 / 0 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 40 47 20 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CST THROUGH 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND
WALTON...JACKSON AND WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL ZONES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL
WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA
FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...WOOL
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KTAE 190711
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
...A BRIEF WARMUP TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST
TUESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...IR SATELLITE/RUC80 500 MB COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER MOVING EASTWARD...WITH
A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...EASTERN FL
BIG BEND...AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MARINE AREA...WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS FROM 8 TO 10 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRED FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS AT 1 AM EST...BUT WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SHARP RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER
THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY...DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SURGE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC
AIR MASS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10C ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
40S. IT WILL ALSO BE BRISK WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...MAKING
IT FEEL 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED. THE PAST THREE
RUNS OF THE MAV ARE TRENDING UPWARD WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AWAY FROM THE COAST CONSIDERING SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
BECOME CALM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV
MOS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE ERN TROUGH LIFTS AWAY AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP ONE MORE NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS WEDNESDAY MORNING...MANY OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS DOWN IN THE MID
20S THURSDAY MORNING...FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE...SO WILL TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST TO TX BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 4-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND 8-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...YESTERDAY`S RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND MOIST AND THEN
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS HAS SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KVLD...KABY...KTLH AND KPFN BEFORE WINDS PICK UP
OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD DOWN TO VLIFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KT AND GUSTS FREQUENTLY OVER 20
KT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT WILL DECREASE
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS DEVELOPING. A PROLONG PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE MARINE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR TODAY FOR OUR I-10 FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
BRIEF DURATIONS OF RH AOB 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH 20-FT WINDS OF 15
MPH OR GREATER. A WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR ALL OF OUR FL ZONES FOR
TUESDAY WHEN REQUIRED LOW RH DURATIONS WILL EASILY BE REACHED. MIN RH
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 25 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST AL AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST GA. DURATIONS AND WINDS WILL NOT QUITE BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
MEET THE MORE RIGOROUS RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AL AND GA. RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SUNDAY`S QPF VERIFIED WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH MEASURED
THROUGHOUT THE HSA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR AREA RIVER
BASINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 65 36 48 19 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 65 38 48 28 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 62 32 45 23 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 61 33 46 22 51 / 10 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 35 46 21 51 / 0 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 40 47 20 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CST THROUGH 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND
WALTON...JACKSON AND WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL
WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA
FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...WOOL
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KTAE 190228
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS
THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RAINFALL IS PUSHING EASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF
OVER THE SE FL BIG BEND...SO SHOULD BE ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
OR ELIMINATE POPS ON THE EVENING UPDATE AS THE SHOWERS SLOWLY CLEAR
THE SE BIG BEND. LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG COULD BE A GREATER
CONCERN HOWEVER...WITH GROWING EVIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND MODEL CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELDS THAT PARTS OF THE
EASTERN BIG BEND AND SC GEORGIA MAY BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
...SO LOW TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN
THESE AREAS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ALREADY DID A QUICK UPDATE
EARLIER THIS EVENING TO SHOW THE SW WINDS PERSISTING...WHICH HAS
CAUSED SEAS TO REACH 7 TO 9 FEET AT THE BUOYS. WINDS ARE FINALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE WEST AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY...SO THE NEXT
PACKAGE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK AND AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXITING TO THE EAST OF KVLD. HOWEVER...SEEING PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VIS RE-DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA IN A ZONE OF LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VIS AT BOTH
KTLH AND KVLD THROUGH 04-05Z BEFORE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO SCOURS OUT ANY REMAINING
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW PREVAILING FOR
KABY...KDHN...AND KPFN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL SEE
A INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
SUNRISE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH A 10 TO 15 MPH
WESTERLY WIND. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KDHN AND KPFN AROUND
OR JUST AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH (WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ITS WAKE). THIS FRONT
AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER EVENING HOURS.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WX WATCH MON AFTN ALL ZONES.
GM...SCA UNTIL 1 AM EST MON MORNING NEARSHORE LEGS.
SCA UNTIL 7 AM MON MORNING OFFSHORE LEGS.
&&
$$
GOULD/MROCZKA
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181925
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
...BRIEF WARMUP TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD BLAST...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LONG WAVE PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. CURRENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO WILL NOT SEE A COOL DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE
EASTERN TROUGH AND PUSH THROUGH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
HOWEVER...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH BRINGING WITH IT A SLUG OF
VERY COLD AIR. THIS COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO
-10C DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPS UNLIKELY TO REACH 50 DEGREES
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA TUESDAY WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE. MAV GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO LOW WITH MID TEENS
CONSIDERING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. HAVE GONE WITH
LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AFTER ANOTHER POSSIBLE
HARD FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST
SLIDES EAST ACROSS DIXIE. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
EAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFSX MAINTAINS ITS RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IS APPROACHING DHN AS OF 1930Z.
RADARS ARE SHOWING THE LAST BATCH OF RAINFALL THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
TERMINALS HEADING TOWARD VLD. MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE GONE BY 21Z. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY
00Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE RISEN TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE LAGGING BUT ON THE INCREASE. FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BEFORE DIMISHING. WILL SEE
A BRIEF LULL ON MONDAY BEFORE A STRONG FRONT AND FOLLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL JUST DROP BELOW
35 PERCENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
TALLAHASSEE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A WATCH. IN
FACT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MONDAY ONLY TO ISSUE A WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 42 64 34 49 21 / 20 0 10 10 0
PANAMA CITY 47 64 38 50 30 / 10 0 10 10 0
DOTHAN 39 61 31 45 24 / 10 10 10 10 0
ALBANY 39 60 31 46 23 / 10 10 10 10 0
VALDOSTA 39 61 34 47 23 / 20 10 10 10 0
CROSS CITY 44 64 36 49 20 / 50 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND
WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
CAMP/GODSEY/BLOCK
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181450
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS PROGRESSING EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
BAND EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY TODAY. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
GRIDS AND ZONES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LGT TO MDT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR AND OCNL IFR VIS WILL
PERSIST IN THESE SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
TO APPROACH DHN BETWEEN 1430Z AND 18Z AND REACH ABY BY 16Z. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AND OF SHORTER DURATION FURTHER
SOUTH AT PFN AND TLH. EXPECT SHRA ACTIVITY TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS
BY 00Z. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AT
MOST TERMINALS...THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT ABY AND DHN.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO RISE THIS
MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO HEADLINES SINCE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 64 38 58 31 53 / 70 20 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 64 43 60 36 53 / 60 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 59 34 54 30 48 / 60 10 10 10 10
ALBANY 58 34 54 31 49 / 60 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 63 39 57 31 52 / 60 40 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 66 39 58 33 54 / 30 50 20 20 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
CAMP/GODSEY
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180928
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 AM EST...SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
REACHING WRN MOST COUNTIES ENHANCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. CIGS 2-4K AND 8-10K SPREADING EWD. TEMPS RANGED FROM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S BIG BEND TO MID 40S PANHANDLE AND SE ALA BUT UNDER
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE STOPPED DROPPING AND MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON INDICATED A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION...RANGING FROM 20-25 DEGREES WARMER
AND WETTER ACROSS SE ALA/WRN PANHANDLE TO 3-10 DEGREES WARMER AND
WETTER ACROSS SE BIG BEND. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM EXCEPT FOR SLY
5-9 MPH WRN THIRD OF AREA.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE BIG CONUS PIX SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED TODAY BY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ALONG THE PAC NW THAT DOMINATES WRN CONUS...WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SHARPLY DOWNSTREAM INTO LONGWAVE
TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. ASSOCD LOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH JET DROPPING SEWD FROM MO VALLEY INTO SE
STATES BY THIS AFTN. AT SAME TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND ROTATE AROUND GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE
AROUND THIS SHORT WAVE. THUS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER AND SHIFT
EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD. THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ON
MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS EWD WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER ROCKIES AND
TROUGH AXIS FROM QUEBEC TO NE GULF WITH LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
RIDGING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING HAS WEAKENED AND PUSHED SE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH NOW NEAR W/CNTRL FA. BROAD SURFACE LOW
OVER SRN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO THE ERN MS
VALLEY AND INTO WRN LA. WITH FRONT APPROACHING NE GULF REGION AND
HIGH PUSHING EWD THIS MORNING...LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
SW AND AIRMASS MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN ABOVE AIR MASS CONTRASTS. HOWEVER
REGIONAL AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT CURRENTLY REMAINS VERY DRY AS
REFLECTED IN REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS. I.E. FFC 0.47...JAX 0.31 AND TAE
0.24 INCH PWATS AND WILL TAKE TIME TO SUFFICIENTLY MOISTEN UP. AS
FRONT APPROACHES...LOCAL AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN (RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS) WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SPREADING ONSHORE BUT THEN AIRMASS
RAPIDLY DRYS OUT AGAIN IN ITS WAKE. THIS REFLECTED IN 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.02 IN PWAT AT 18Z SUN DROPPING TO
0.50 PWAT AT 06Z MON. FRONT TO REACH FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING TO
MOVE TO TAMPA`S BAY AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
IN WAKE OF FRONT...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE CWA...WITH 850 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON SFC WINDS...THE RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS WHAT
WE JUST EXPERIENCED. HOWEVER...WITH H5 TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE MON NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK GULF LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS CWA DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT SEWD
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT MON INTO EARLY TUES BRINGING SOME RAIN TO
MAINLY SE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. GFS MORE BULLISH AND UNTIL I
SEE SOME MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL ONLY SHOW WDLY SCT POPS AT
THIS TIME.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TODAY...THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING SPREADING
INCREASING AND LOWER CIG CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF A LINE FROM
AROUND DOTHAN TO PANAMA CITY AFTER SUNRISE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A FAIRLY POTENT
PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH H85 JET 40-50KT IN PROXIMITY TO
CWA...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HIGHLIGHTED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES...BUT AS ABOVE MO VALLEY JET DROPS SEWD...STRONGER UVV
MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS SO NEW GRIDS SPREAD INHERITED TSTMS
N/E ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CWA. NW-SE 70-40 PCT POPS GRADIENT TODAY.
MAX TEMPS FROM UPPER 50S SE ALA/SW GA TO MID 60S SE BIG BEND.
TONIGHT...0-50 PCT NW-SE MAINLY EVENING POPS GRADIENT. LOWS FROM MID
30S SE ALA TO UPPER 30S SE BIG BEND.
MONDAY...NO POPS. HIGHS MID-UPPER 50`S. LOWS GENERALLY 30-33 INLAND.
TUESDAY...20 PCT POPS MAINLY SE BIG BEND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
BRISK/GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS UPPER 40S SE ALA TO MID 40S SE BIG BEND.
LOWS UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
ARCTIC FRONTS IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT...IT WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z GFSX MIN TEMP GUIDANCE IS NOW
ADVERTISING A HARD FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OUT
WEST SLIDES EAST ACROSS DIXIE. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE EAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFSX MAINTAINS ITS
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OCNL MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPFN AND KDHN OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS.
INTRODUCED PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AT
KDHN...18Z AT KABY AND KPFN...19Z AT KTLH...AND 20Z AT KVLD SUNDAY.
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WHILE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER EXISTS...ITS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY...AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TONIGHT...
BEFORE DECREASING ON MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG CONCERNS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN FL HAS FALLEN
BELOW ITS ACTION STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY FALLING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE REMAINING RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS
IN THE HSA ARE RECEDING OR AT BASE FLOW. RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH...WHICH
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AREA BASINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 64 38 58 31 / 70 20 10 10
PANAMA CITY 64 43 60 36 / 70 10 10 10
DOTHAN 59 34 54 30 / 70 10 10 10
ALBANY 58 34 54 31 / 60 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 63 39 57 31 / 60 40 10 10
CROSS CITY 66 39 58 33 / 40 50 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SCA ALL ZONES BEGINNING 12Z TODAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX...JAMSKI
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180745
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 AM EST...SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA WITH CIGS 2-4K AND
8-10K SPREADING EWD. TEMPS RANGED FROM UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BIG BEND TO
MID 40S PANHANDLE AND SE ALA. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON
INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION SINCE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM 20-25 DEGREES WARMER AND WETTER ACROSS SE
ALA/WRN PANHANDLE TO 3-10 DEGREES WARMER AND WETTER ACROSS SE BIG
BEND. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM EXCEPT FOR SLY 5-9 MPH WRN THIRD OF
AREA.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE BIG CONUS PIX SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED TODAY BY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ALONG THE PAC NW THAT DOMINATES WRN CONUS...WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SHARPLY DOWNSTREAM INTO LONGWAVE
TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. ASSOCD LOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH JET DROPPING SEWD FROM MO VALLEY INTO SE
STATES BY THIS AFTN. AT SAME TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND ROTATE AROUND GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE
AROUND THIS SHORT WAVE. THUS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER AND SHIFT
EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD. THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE ONE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ON
MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS EWD WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER ROCKIES AND
TROUGH AXIS FROM QUEBEC TO NE GULF WITH LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
RIDGING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST INTO ATLC OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SRN
GREAT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO THE ERN MS VALLEY AND
INTO WRN LA. WITH FRONT APPROACHING NE GULF REGION AND HIGH PUSHING
EWD THIS MORNING...LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SW AND
AIRMASS MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN ABOVE AIR MASS CONTRASTS. HOWEVER REGIONAL
AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT CURRENTLY REMAINS VERY DRY AS REFLECTED IN
REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS. I.E. FFC 0.47...JAX 0.31 AND TAE 0.24 INCH
PWATS. AS FRONT CROSSES...LOCAL AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP (RELATIVE TO
RECENT DAYS) WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SPREADING ONSHORE BUT THEN
AIRMASS RAPIDLY DRYS OUT AGAIN IN ITS WAKE. THIS REFLECTED IN 00Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.02 IN PWAT AT 18Z SUN DROPPING
TO 0.50 PWAT AT 06Z MON. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL FL BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.
IN WAKE OF FRONT...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE CWA...WITH 850 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON SFC WINDS...THE RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS WHAT
WE JUST EXPERIENCED. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE
MON-WED NIGHTS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK GULF LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS CWA
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT MON INTO EARLY
TUES BRINGING SOME RAIN TO MAINLY SE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. GFS
MORE BULLISH AND UNTIL I SEE SOME MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL
ONLY SHOW WLDY SCT POPS AT THIS TIME.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TODAY...THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING SPREADING
INCREASING AND LOWER CIG CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF A LINE FROM
AROUND DOTHAN TO PANAMA CITY AFTER SUNRISE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A FAIRLY POTENT
PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HIGHLIGHTED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES...BUT AS ABOVE MO
VALLEY JET DROPS SEWD...STRONGER UVV MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD
TSTMS SO NEW GRIDS SPREAD INHERITED TSTMS N/E ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF
CWA. NW-SE 70-40 PCT POPS GRADIENT TODAY. MAX TEMPS FROM UPPER 50S
SE ALA/SW GA TO MID 60S SE BIG BEND.
TONIGHT...0-50 PCT NW-SE MAINLY EVENING POPS GRADIENT. LOWS FROM MID
30S SE ALA TO UPPER 30S SE BIG BEND.
MONDAY...NO POPS. HIGHS MID-UPPER 50`S. LOWS GENERALLY 30-33 INLAND.
TUESDAY...20 PCT POPS MAINLY SE BIG BEND AND ADJACENT WATERS. HIGHS
UPPER 40S SE ALA TO MID 40S SE BIG BEND. LOWS UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
ARCTIC FRONTS IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT...IT WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z GFSX MIN TEMP GUIDANCE IS NOW
ADVERTISING A HARD FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OUT
WEST SLIDES EAST ACROSS DIXIE. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE EAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFSX MAINTAINS ITS
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OCNL MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPFN AND KDHN OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS.
INTRODUCED PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AT
KDHN...18Z AT KABY AND KPFN...19Z AT KTLH...AND 20Z AT KVLD SUNDAY.
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WHILE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER EXISTS...ITS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY...AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TONIGHT...
BEFORE DECREASING ON MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG CONCERNS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN FL HAS FALLEN
BELOW ITS ACTION STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY FALLING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE REMAINING RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS
IN THE HSA ARE RECEDING OR AT BASE FLOW. RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH...WHICH
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AREA BASINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 64 38 58 31 / 70 20 10 10
PANAMA CITY 64 43 60 36 / 70 10 10 10
DOTHAN 59 34 54 30 / 70 10 10 10
ALBANY 58 34 54 31 / 60 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 63 39 57 31 / 60 40 10 10
CROSS CITY 66 39 58 33 / 40 50 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SCA ALL ZONES BEGINNING 12Z TODAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX...JAMSKI
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180033
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
730 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS EVENING.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS SEEN ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THEN
DIVING SHARPLY DOWNSTREAM INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME AT THE SURFACE WE FIND OUR FORECAST AREA STILL
CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHT
FIELD OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. ASSOCIATED THESE FALLING HEIGHTS WE ARE
FINDING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRING A SLOW INCREASE
IN CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION THE AREA. SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING...HOWEVER...THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL VERY
LATE TONIGHT WHEN SHOWERS CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF A
LINE FROM AROUND DOTHAN TO PANAMA CITY. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE WATCHING SW FLOW DEVELOP AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES
EAST. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ALL ZONES. FURTHER EAST WHERE THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVERNIGHT AND THE
CLOUDS WILL BE DELAYED IN ARRIVING...ANOTHER SHOT AT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
PERHAPS SETTLING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN FACT THIS
MAY BE A NIGHT WERE LOW TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED AROUND 2 OR 3 IN THE
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD DAWN.
THE STRETCH OF DRY AND FAIR WEATHER DAYS WILL COME TO AN END DURING
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAKES PROGRESS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FAIRLY POTENT PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO
SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RETURN FLOW AND DEVELOPING LOW
CLOUDINESS TO OUR NW WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT...AND IT NOW SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT ANY AREAS RECEIVING
LIGHT FREEZE A FROST OR WILL BE LIMITED TO INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DIP FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...SHARPENING THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SUN AFTN...SO WILL KEEP
THE AREA CLOSE TO THE SPC GENERAL OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA...WITH 850
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
DEPEND ON SFC WINDS AND THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUIDANCE TREND DOWNWARD
TOWARDS AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND LOWER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THEY WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THEN REACH MVFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST.
NUMEROUS SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...BEGINNING IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AROUND KDHN...THEN SPREADING INTO KPFN...KTLH...
AND KABY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE QUICKLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING SCA LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT...
BEFORE DECREASING ON MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 32 63 38 56 31 / 10 50 20 10 10
PANAMA CITY 42 64 41 57 35 / 10 60 10 10 10
DOTHAN 37 58 34 52 30 / 10 60 10 10 10
ALBANY 35 58 34 51 31 / 10 60 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 31 63 39 55 31 / 05 50 20 10 10
CROSS CITY 30 66 39 56 33 / 05 40 30 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...FOURNIER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOULD
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA
000
FXUS62 KTAE 171908
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED
ALMOST 8 HOURS OF HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS (T <26 DEGREES F) LAST
NIGHT...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES OUT OF
THE TEENS. TALLAHASSEE WAS ONE OF THE COLD SPOTS...BOTTOMING OUT AT
20 DEGREES. THIS MISSED THE RECORD LOW OF 17 SET IN 1977 BY 3 DEGREES.
BELOW ARE LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING AT SELECTED ASOS SITES ACROSS THE
CWA.
TALLAHASSEE FL (TLH): 20
PANAMA CITY FL (PFN): 28
PERRY FL (40J) : 25
CROSS CITY FL (CTY) : 24
DOTHAN AL (DHN) : 26
ALBANY GA (ABY) : 22
VALDOSTA GA (VLD) : 23
THE COLDEST REPORT IN THE CWA THUS FAR (SOME COOP SITES MAY NOT
REPORT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING) WAS GENEVA ALABAMA WITH A LOW OF 19.
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE RECOVERING QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN
FRIDAY...AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S
SE. FURTHER TO THE W...A BAND OF SC AND CU BETWEEN 3 AND 4 KFT IS
FORMING IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AL AND MUCH OF MS...AND SOME
OF THIS CLOUDINESS MAY SPILL INTO SE AL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. GFS
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW BKN CIGS REACHING DHN BY
00 UTC...SO THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE E FROM NE
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE RETURN FLOW AND DEVELOPING
LOW CLOUDINESS TO OUR NW WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT...AND IT NOW SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT ANY AREAS RECEIVING
LIGHT FREEZE A FROST OR WILL BE LIMITED TO INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DIP FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...SHARPENING THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SUN AFTN...SO WILL KEEP
THE AREA CLOSE TO THE SPC GENERAL OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA...WITH 850
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
DEPEND ON SFC WINDS AND THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUIDANCE TREND DOWNWARD
TOWARDS AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY EVENING. ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THEN
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY THURSDAY AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND IS REPLACED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
RISING HEIGHTS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MARCH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
BKN CIGS AROUND 10 KFT ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
DHN...ABY...AND PFN. ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE 1ST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE QUICKLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA LEVELS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT...
BEFORE DECREASING ON MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER THE RED FLAG EVENT TODAY...NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL TUE OR WED AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN FL CRESTED A FOOT
ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW ACTION STAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINING RIVERS...CREEKS
AND STREAMS IN THE HSA ARE RECEDING OR AT BASE FLOW...AND THE
PROJECTED RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA BASINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 32 63 38 56 31 / 10 50 20 10 10
PANAMA CITY 42 64 41 57 35 / 10 60 10 10 10
DOTHAN 37 58 34 52 30 / 10 60 10 10 10
ALBANY 35 58 34 51 31 / 10 60 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 31 63 39 55 31 / 05 50 20 10 10
CROSS CITY 30 66 39 56 33 / 05 40 30 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST TODAY ALL ZONES.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST TODAY ALL ZONES.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TODAY ALL ZONES.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX...PETERSON/SHULER
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
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