000
FXUS63 KSGF 201746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN LEAVES OUR AREA ALONG THE
EDGE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS OVER EASTERN NOAM AND WARM
AIR TO THE WEST. RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW
HAVE ALLOWED THE COLD SFC AIR TO SLOSH BACK TO THE WEST...AND ONE
SUCH SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MO EARLY THIS MORNING.
SFC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TONIGHT WITH
BLUSTERY NNW WINDS...CLOUD COVER...AND FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE.
CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY.
SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
CWFA...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT KICK IN UNTIL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BECOME SITUATED OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY
EARLY EVENING SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THAT THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE THE COLDEST IN THAT AREA...AND HAVE TEENS FOR
LOWS IN THE ROLLA/SALEM/WEST PLAINS AREAS.

THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...AND AS A RESULT THE MUCH ADVERTISED WARM UP IN THE
FORECAST REALLY KICKS IN EARNEST WED. THE TEMPTATION HAS BEEN TO
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SFC WIND DURING THE DAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
THE 10-13 DEG C RANGE ON THU. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SFC
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE CONUS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE U.S. UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE
FRI/SAT. THIS PUSHES COLD AIR BACK TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A SFC
WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON FRI...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIP WITH THIS SFC
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA...THOUGH WOULDN`T RULE OUT SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN MO FRI NIGHT WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MAXIMIZED.

INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES
THE DOOR OPEN FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND UPPER WSW-SW UPPER FLOW. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THIS...AND WILL PASS THIS ONTO
THE NEXT SHIFT FOR DAY 6 AND 7 ADJUSTMENTS IF STILL WARRANTED. DSA


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER THE JOPLIN TERMINAL MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL AT TIMES. THE
STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
DEVELOP BY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

FOSTER



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN LEAVES OUR AREA ALONG THE
EDGE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS OVER EASTERN NOAM AND WARM
AIR TO THE WEST. RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW
HAVE ALLOWED THE COLD SFC AIR TO SLOSH BACK TO THE WEST...AND ONE
SUCH SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MO EARLY THIS MORNING.
SFC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TONIGHT WITH
BLUSTERY NNW WINDS...CLOUD COVER...AND FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE.
CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY.
SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
CWFA...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT KICK IN UNTIL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BECOME SITUATED OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY
EARLY EVENING SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THAT THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE THE COLDEST IN THAT AREA...AND HAVE TEENS FOR
LOWS IN THE ROLLA/SALEM/WEST PLAINS AREAS.

THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...AND AS A RESULT THE MUCH ADVERTISED WARM UP IN THE
FORECAST REALLY KICKS IN EARNEST WED. THE TEMPTATION HAS BEEN TO
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SFC WIND DURING THE DAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
THE 10-13 DEG C RANGE ON THU. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SFC
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE CONUS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE U.S. UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE
FRI/SAT. THIS PUSHES COLD AIR BACK TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A SFC
WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON FRI...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIP WITH THIS SFC
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA...THOUGH WOULDN`T RULE OUT SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN MO FRI NIGHT WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MAXIMIZED.

INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES
THE DOOR OPEN FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND UPPER WSW-SW UPPER FLOW. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THIS...AND WILL PASS THIS ONTO
THE NEXT SHIFT FOR DAY 6 AND 7 ADJUSTMENTS IF STILL WARRANTED. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...BUT
THINK THE CHANCES OF THIS ARE RATHER LOW. CEILINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THE LONGEST AT KJLN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KJLN BY LATE
TONIGHT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN LEAVES OUR AREA ALONG THE
EDGE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS OVER EASTERN NOAM AND WARM
AIR TO THE WEST. RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW
HAVE ALLOWED THE COLD SFC AIR TO SLOSH BACK TO THE WEST...AND ONE
SUCH SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MO EARLY THIS MORNING.
SFC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TONIGHT WITH
BLUSTERY NNW WINDS...CLOUD COVER...AND FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE.
CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY.
SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
CWFA...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT KICK IN UNTIL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BECOME SITUATED OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY
EARLY EVENING SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THAT THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE THE COLDEST IN THAT AREA...AND HAVE TEENS FOR
LOW IN THE ROLLA/SALEM/WEST PLAINS AREAS.

THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...AND AS A RESULT THE MUCH ADVERTISED WARM UP IN THE
FORECAST REALLY KICKS IN EARNEST WED. THE TEMPTATION HAS BEEN TO
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SFC WIND DURING THE DAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
THE 10-13 DEG C RANGE ON THU. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SFC
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 60S IN MANY AREAS.

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE CONUS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE U.S. UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE
FRI/SAT. THIS PUSHES COLD AIR BACK TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A SFC
WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON FRI...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIP WITH THIS SFC
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA...THOUGH WOULDN`T RULE OUT SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN MO FRI NIGHT WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MAXIMIZED.

INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES
THE DOOR OPEN FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND UPPER WSW-SW UPPER FLOW. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THIS...AND WILL PASS THIS ONTO
THE NEXT SHIFT FOR DAY 6 AND 7 ADJUSTMENTS IF STILL WARRANTED. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE O6Z TAFS...CEILINGS COMING DOWN TO MVFR LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI IN THE
1500 FOOT RANGE...WOULD EXPECT A SMALL WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL DUE TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SGF SHOW A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW
WHERE CEILINGS COULD FALL BELOW TO IFR FROM AROUND 10Z TO 15Z OR
SO. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IFR TO SGF FROM 10Z ON. MAY BE DELAYED A
LITTLE FOR JLN.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200512
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EROSION OF THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK THAT PRODUCED FLURRIES THIS MORNING WITH
THE DECK SHRINKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE TUESDAY.
ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST READINGS...NEAR 40 DEGREES...ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WEST MISSOURI WITH THE COOLEST READINGS
...IN THE LOWER 30S...IN THE CENTRAL OZARKS.

WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER
50S ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FLURRIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS SUPPORT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF A
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS...GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER INCREASED.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z
RUNS HAVE OPTED TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE O6Z TAFS...CEILINGS COMING DOWN TO MVFR LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI IN THE
1500 FOOT RANGE...WOULD EXPECT A SMALL WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL DUE TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SGF SHOW A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW
WHERE CEILINGS COULD FALL BELOW TO IFR FROM AROUND 10Z TO 15Z OR
SO. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IFR TO SGF FROM 10Z ON. MAY BE DELAYED A
LITTLE FOR JLN.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
915 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER THAN FORECAST. CLOUDS ARE LOWERING AS
THEY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...SO DO NOT THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD GET AS COLD AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EROSION OF THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK THAT PRODUCED FLURRIES THIS MORNING WITH
THE DECK SHRINKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE TUESDAY.
ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST READINGS...NEAR 40 DEGREES...ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WEST MISSOURI WITH THE COOLEST READINGS
...IN THE LOWER 30S...IN THE CENTRAL OZARKS.

WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER
50S ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FLURRIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS SUPPORT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF A
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS...GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER INCREASED.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z
RUNS HAVE OPTED TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

ANGLE



&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE OOZ TAFS...HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS STILL REPORTING VFR CEILINGS.
STILL...DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWERING AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE POINTING AT SOME IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS
SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL NEXT TAF TO DETERMINE
CERTAINTY AND TIMING.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 192327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EROSION OF THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK THAT PRODUCED FLURRIES THIS MORNING WITH
THE DECK SHRINKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE TUESDAY.
ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST READINGS...NEAR 40 DEGREES...ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WEST MISSOURI WITH THE COOLEST READINGS
...IN THE LOWER 30S...IN THE CENTRAL OZARKS.

WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER
50S ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FLURRIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS SUPPORT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF A
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS...GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER INCREASED.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z
RUNS HAVE OPTED TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

ANGLE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE OOZ TAFS...HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS STILL REPORTING VFR CEILINGS.
STILL...DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWERING AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE POINTING AT SOME IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS
SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL NEXT TAF TO DETERMINE
CERTAINTY AND TIMING.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 192045
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EROSION OF THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK THAT PRODUCED FLURRIES THIS MORNING WITH
THE DECK SHRINKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE TUESDAY.
ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST READINGS...NEAR 40 DEGREES...ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WEST MISSOURI WITH THE COOLEST READINGS
...IN THE LOWER 30S...IN THE CENTRAL OZARKS.

WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER
50S ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FLURRIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS SUPPORT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF A
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS...GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER INCREASED.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z
RUNS HAVE OPTED TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN BAND OF CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT 2500-3000 FOOT CEILINGS
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR FIRST COUPLE/FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET.
SHOULD GO VFR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS AROUND 2500-3500 FEET BEFORE
DROPPING INTO THE 1500-2000 FOOT RANGE AFTER 06Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT NOT
HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITY.

LINDENBERG


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 191810
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE. A STRATUS DECK
LINGERS AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH THE STRONGER LIFT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR FLURRIES WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

ANGLE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  WINDS SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED.  THIS FRONT WAS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSED LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.  SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO EXITING BY MID MORNING.  NO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AGAIN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IS QUITE VIEWABLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
ANIMATION.  THIS CIRCULATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SO FAST
THAT ONLY ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED.  AGAIN...ONLY A DUSTING OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES PERSIST FROM THE NORTH.  THE STRONG WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED TUESDAY. BASED OFF OF COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE`LL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS WITH
LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHILE READINGS WARM INTO THE MID 40S
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WHILE RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFYING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY 60S ON THURSDAY.

BY WEEKS END BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNAL THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL OCCUR TO THE
SOUTH...THEREFORE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION...PUTTING AN END TO THE 50/60 DEGREE AIR THAT WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THAT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUGGESTING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING WITH
SHARP TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A
ZONAL/WEAK CYCLONIC PATTERN SHAPING UP.  DETAILS REGARDING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BECOME BETTER UNDERSTOOD WITH LATER RUNS.

CRAMER


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN BAND OF CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT 2500-3000 FOOT CEILINGS
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR FIRST COUPLE/FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET.
SHOULD GO VFR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS AROUND 2500-3500 FEET BEFORE
DROPPING INTO THE 1500-2000 FOOT RANGE AFTER 06Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT NOT
HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITY.

LINDENBERG


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 191135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  WINDS SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED.  THIS FRONT WAS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSED LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.  SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO EXITING BY MID MORNING.  NO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AGAIN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IS QUITE VIEWABLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
ANIMATION.  THIS CIRCULATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SO FAST
THAT ONLY ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED.  AGAIN...ONLY A DUSTING OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES PERSIST FROM THE NORTH.  THE STRONG WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED TUESDAY. BASED OFF OF COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE`LL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS WITH
LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHILE READINGS WARM INTO THE MID 40S
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WHILE RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFYING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY 60S ON THURSDAY.

BY WEEKS END BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNAL THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL OCCUR TO THE
SOUTH...THEREFORE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION...PUTTING AN END TO THE 50/60 DEGREE AIR THAT WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THAT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUGGESTING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING WITH
SHARP TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A
ZONAL/WEAK CYCLONIC PATTERN SHAPING UP.  DETAILS REGARDING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BECOME BETTER UNDERSTOOD WITH LATER RUNS.

CRAMER


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SFC FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT. FLURRIES
OR BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PROLONGED AFFECT ON VISIBILITY. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 190823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  WINDS SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED.  THIS FRONT WAS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSED LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.  SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO EXITING BY MID MORNING.  NO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AGAIN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IS QUITE VIEWABLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
ANIMATION.  THIS CIRCULATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SO FAST
THAT ONLY ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED.  AGAIN...ONLY A DUSTING OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES PERSIST FROM THE NORTH.  THE STRONG WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED TUESDAY. BASED OFF OF COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE`LL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS WITH
LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHILE READINGS WARM INTO THE MID 40S
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WHILE RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFYING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY 60S ON THURSDAY.

BY WEEKS END BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNAL THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL OCCUR TO THE
SOUTH...THEREFORE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION...PUTTING AN END TO THE 50/60 DEGREE AIR THAT WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THAT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUGGESTING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING WITH
SHARP TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A
ZONAL/WEAK CYCLONIC PATTERN SHAPING UP.  DETAILS REGARDING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BECOME BETTER UNDERSTOOD WITH LATER RUNS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z...MVFR STRATOCU CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST OUT
OF NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO BOTH SPRINGFIELD AND EVEN JOPLIN IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT LLWS IN TAFS UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ITS
PASSAGE. DO BELIEVE WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY EVENING.

CLAYCOMB

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 190454
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1054 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HAS THE
REGION LOCKED INTO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A SUNNY SKY HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS
LINGERS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
BRING GLANCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. VARIABLE BOUTS OF
CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED AS STRATUS/STRATOCU CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT
AT LIGHT SNOW EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH BETTER LIFT. A DUSTING OF
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS
WILL FOCUS ON AREAS TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH...WE WILL SEE PIECES OF
THIS COLD AIRMASS ROTATE INTO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST TEMPS DUE TO THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
DEEPER COLD AIRMASS AS WELL AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
TO THE WEST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS OF SE KS AND FAR
W MO...TEMPS WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE
BASICALLY GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET OUT EAST AND THE WARMER
MAV OUT WEST.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID JANUARY VALUES.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PROG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM EAST SURFACE FLOW BRINGING
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OZARKS.

OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS
EXPECTED TRACK ALONG WITH THE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ANGLE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z...MVFR STRATOCU CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST OUT
OF NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO BOTH SPRINGFIELD AND EVEN JOPLIN IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT LLWS IN TAFS UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ITS
PASSAGE. DO BELIEVE WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY EVENING.

CLAYCOMB

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 182250
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HAS THE
REGION LOCKED INTO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A SUNNY SKY HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS
LINGERS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
BRING GLANCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. VARIABLE BOUTS OF
CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED AS STRATUS/STRATOCU CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT
AT LIGHT SNOW EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH BETTER LIFT. A DUSTING OF
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS
WILL FOCUS ON AREAS TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH...WE WILL SEE PIECES OF
THIS COLD AIRMASS ROTATE INTO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST TEMPS DUE TO THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
DEEPER COLD AIRMASS AS WELL AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
TO THE WEST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS OF SE KS AND FAR
W MO...TEMPS WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE
BASICALLY GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET OUT EAST AND THE WARMER
MAV OUT WEST.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID JANUARY VALUES.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PROG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM EAST SURFACE FLOW BRINGING
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OZARKS.

OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS
EXPECTED TRACK ALONG WITH THE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ANGLE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT BOTH
AIRFIELDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MVFR STRATOCU MOVING INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT...06Z...THEN INTO THE SPRINGFIELD
AREA BY EARLY MORNING WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LLVL JET. CONTINUED
MVFR CEILINGS AT SPRINGFIELD BY 09Z AND ADDED LLWS INTO BOTH TAFS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON MVFR TO MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS
EVENING AND DETERMINE CERTAINTY ON THE 06Z TAFS.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 182016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
216 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HAS THE
REGION LOCKED INTO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A SUNNY SKY HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS
LINGERS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
BRING GLANCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. VARIABLE BOUTS OF
CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED AS STRATUS/STRATOCU CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT
AT LIGHT SNOW EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH BETTER LIFT. A DUSTING OF
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS
WILL FOCUS ON AREAS TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH...WE WILL SEE PIECES OF
THIS COLD AIRMASS ROTATE INTO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST TEMPS DUE TO THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
DEEPER COLD AIRMASS AS WELL AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
TO THE WEST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS OF SE KS AND FAR
W MO...TEMPS WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE
BASICALLY GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET OUT EAST AND THE WARMER
MAV OUT WEST.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID JANUARY VALUES.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PROG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM EAST SURFACE FLOW BRINGING
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OZARKS.

OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS
EXPECTED TRACK ALONG WITH THE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY...STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ESE WITH TIME. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH AS DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THE RISK OF AN MVFR DECK APPROACHING THE SGF AERODROME
TOWARDS 09Z...HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST AND WILL NEED KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 181730
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
A SMALL BAND OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NW MISSOURI
THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
A 140 KNOT 300MB SPEED MAX.  THE SNOW WAS UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THIS SPEED MAX.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WERE RELATIVELY QUIET...AND MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS.  WESTERLY WINDS LIMITED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF
THE 30S.

FOR TODAY...SOME FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 13 CORRIDOR.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE LOW SNOWFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
BELT OF LIFT.  TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR
JOPLIN...TO THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.  LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL INDUCE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AS THE OZARKS WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE INFLECTION OF THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
SPEED MAX WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND CREATE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT.  OTHER
THAN THESE FLURRIES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO 30S...POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN
FAR SW MO/SE KS.

THE WESTERN RIDGE EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A MUCH WELCOMED
WARMER AIRMASS.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...READINGS ARE GOING TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 60S.  DRY WEATHER
IS FORECASTED FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS...HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE
ECMWF TAKING THE FORCING ACROSS THE GULF COAST.  MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE OZARKS...POSSIBLY
CAUSING AN EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW I`LL ONLY INSERT A 20
POP FOR THURSDAY NIGHTS GRID SINCE THE DRIER ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY...STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ESE WITH TIME. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH AS DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THE RISK OF AN MVFR DECK APPROACHING THE SGF AERODROME
TOWARDS 09Z...HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST AND WILL NEED KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 181146
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
A SMALL BAND OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NW MISSOURI
THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
A 140 KNOT 300MB SPEED MAX.  THE SNOW WAS UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THIS SPEED MAX.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WERE RELATIVELY QUIET...AND MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS.  WESTERLY WINDS LIMITED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF
THE 30S.

FOR TODAY...SOME FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 13 CORRIDOR.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE LOW SNOWFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
BELT OF LIFT.  TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR
JOPLIN...TO THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.  LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL INDUCE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AS THE OZARKS WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE INFLECTION OF THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
SPEED MAX WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND CREATE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT.  OTHER
THAN THESE FLURRIES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO 30S...POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN
FAR SW MO/SE KS.

THE WESTERN RIDGE EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A MUCH WELCOMED
WARMER AIRMASS.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...READINGS ARE GOING TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 60S.  DRY WEATHER
IS FORECASTED FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS...HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE
ECMWF TAKING THE FORCING ACROSS THE GULF COAST.  MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE OZARKS...POSSIBLY
CAUSING AN EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW I`LL ONLY INSERT A 20
POP FOR THURSDAY NIGHTS GRID SINCE THE DRIER ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

CRAMER


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM TONIGHT ALLOWING
THE EDGE OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PUSH BACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS COLD AIR PUSH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER 0900 UTC. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 180816
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A SMALL BAND OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NW MISSOURI
THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
A 140 KNOT 300MB SPEED MAX.  THE SNOW WAS UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THIS SPEED MAX.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WERE RELATIVELY QUIET...AND MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS.  WESTERLY WINDS LIMITED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF
THE 30S.

FOR TODAY...SOME FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 13 CORRIDOR.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE LOW SNOWFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
BELT OF LIFT.  TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR
JOPLIN...TO THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.  LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL INDUCE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AS THE OZARKS WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE INFLECTION OF THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
SPEED MAX WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND CREATE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT.  OTHER
THAN THESE FLURRIES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO 30S...POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN
FAR SW MO/SE KS.

THE WESTERN RIDGE EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A MUCH WELCOMED
WARMER AIRMASS.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...READINGS ARE GOING TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 60S.  DRY WEATHER
IS FORECASTED FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS...HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE
ECMWF TAKING THE FORCING ACROSS THE GULF COAST.  MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE OZARKS...POSSIBLY
CAUSING AN EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW I`LL ONLY INSERT A 20
POP FOR THURSDAY NIGHTS GRID SINCE THE DRIER ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. STILL SOME CONCERNS WATCHING THE LOW STRATOCU DECK OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS DECK WILL PASS FAR EAST
OF THE SPRINGFIELD AERODROME.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 180510
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA WITH
THE COLD FRONT WAITING ON DECK JUST TO OUR NORTH. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL WAA TODAY...PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S TODAY. A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER A FEW
FRIGID DAYS. STRATOCU WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN FLIRTING WITH CENTRAL MO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
WILL SEE A COUPLE OF MORE BOUTS OF COOLER AIR SPREAD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DECENT MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE...THOUGH ANY SPEED MAXES ALOFT WILL BE
PRONE TO SUPPORTING A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS. WITH THESE BOUTS OF COLD AIR
MAKING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS TO OUR REGION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIRMASS BUILDS WEST...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS FRIDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF COOL DOWN BUT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WITH GULF
MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT WEEKEND...A
SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS AND THE OZARKS...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN.

ANGLE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. STILL SOME CONCERNS WATCHING THE LOW STRATOCU DECK OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS DECK WILL PASS FAR EAST
OF THE SPRINGFIELD AERODROME.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 172236
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
436 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA WITH
THE COLD FRONT WAITING ON DECK JUST TO OUR NORTH. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL WAA TODAY...PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S TODAY. A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER A FEW
FRIGID DAYS. STRATOCU WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN FLIRTING WITH CENTRAL MO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
WILL SEE A COUPLE OF MORE BOUTS OF COOLER AIR SPREAD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DECENT MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE...THOUGH ANY SPEED MAXES ALOFT WILL BE
PRONE TO SUPPORTING A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS. WITH THESE BOUTS OF COLD AIR
MAKING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS TO OUR REGION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIRMASS BUILDS WEST...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS FRIDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF COOL DOWN BUT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WITH GULF
MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT WEEKEND...A
SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS AND THE OZARKS...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN.

ANGLE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH LOW STRATOCU FIELD OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI FOR ANY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BUT DO BELIEVE IT WILL PASS
TO THE EAST OF THE SPRINGFIELD AERODROME.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 172011
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
211 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA WITH
THE COLD FRONT WAITING ON DECK JUST TO OUR NORTH. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL WAA TODAY...PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S TODAY. A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER A FEW
FRIGID DAYS. STRATOCU WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN FLIRTING WITH CENTRAL MO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
WILL SEE A COUPLE OF MORE BOUTS OF COOLER AIR SPREAD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DECENT MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE...THOUGH ANY SPEED MAXES ALOFT WILL BE
PRONE TO SUPPORTING A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS. WITH THESE BOUTS OF COLD AIR
MAKING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS TO OUR REGION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIRMASS BUILDS WEST...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS FRIDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF COOL DOWN BUT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WITH GULF
MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT WEEKEND...A
SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS AND THE OZARKS...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING TO DUE WESTERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR AN AREA
OF STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO AT THIS HOUR. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS STRATUS WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF BOTH THE JLN AND SGF
AERODROMES...THOUGH I CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AT SGF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
REFINE EXPECTATIONS.

GAGAN


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$