000
FXUS61 KRNK 201700
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW
WESTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR THE NW NC PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SENDING UPDATE TO REMOVE WINTER WX ADVISORY GIVEN DIMINISHING
RADAR TRENDS AND LACK OF MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW ATTM. ALSO CHANGES
TO REFLECT A LITTLE MORE SUN OUT EAST WHERE DRY AIR IS ALLOWING
FOR MORE CLEARING AS PRECIP FADES. OTRW FEW OTHER CHANGES TO TEMPS
OR POPS.
AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW REALLY STARTING TO SHRINK AS VERY DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SURGE SE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE.
HAVE SEEN 1-3 INCHES IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AND
WILL LET THE WSW RIDE JUST A BIT LONGER UNTIL MOST PRECIP HAS
FADED. THINK MAJORITY GONE BY AROUND NOON IF NOT SOONER BUT GIVEN
SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LITTLE MELTING DUE TO COLD TEMPS THINK BEST
TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY UP A BIT LONGER. OTRW EXPECT UPSLOPE TO
GRADUALLY KICK IN NW ZONES AS FLOW TURNS MORE NW ESPCLY LATER ON
WHILE CENTRAL ZONES LIKELY SEE SOME SUN IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA IN
BETWEEN SO REDUCED POPS THERE. THINK NW WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP
ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO PRES RISES AND DECENT 85H JET. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH ESPCLY ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SW. LATEST MOS SUGGESTS
TEMPS ACROSS THE NW WONT GET MUCH ABOVE 20 AT BEST WITH LOW/MID
20S ELSW MOUNTAINS AND 25-31 PIEDMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
I HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE WE HAVE THE ADVISORIES GOING. FCST AMOUNTS
STILL LOKK GOOD AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AND
ERODE THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW ADVANCING NORTHWARD. OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS AS VERY COLD AIR IS
SURGING SOUTHWARD. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE EVEN THE PIEDMONT WILL RISE
BACK ABOVE FREEZING TODAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CWA. WSR-88D INDICATED PATCHES OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING BY UNCA STUDENTS AT ETSU IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED MOISTURE FROM SFC UP TO AROUND 620 MBS WITH A
N WIND UP TO 700 MB. THE RNK SOUNDING AT 00Z HAD MOISTURE ONLY UP
770 MB WITH NW FLOW UP TO 850 MB. THE SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND HINTS AT WHY THE UPSLOPE HAS NOT KICKED IN YET.
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT
2-D FRONTOGENESIS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF LIFT AROUND LYH AT 12Z WITH BEST FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR RDU AND IT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WITH SOME OF THE BETTER
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WILL
KEEP SNOW TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWS THIS
MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS THE QUESTION OF FORECAST. TREND APPEARS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PLAYED QPF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HPC. STILL
LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3
INCHES IN SRN CASWELL COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES KICK THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW. DECIDED TO TRIM POPS IN THE EAST AFTER 22Z...AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE. USED A
MET GUID AND CONTINUITY BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP
UNIFORM NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE OFF THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS ON
THE NW SLOPES DESPITE VERY LOW GUIDANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH
QPF- LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS
OF 20 OR 25 TO 1...I EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MTNS...WITH
SOME SINGLES DIGITS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE
-18C 850MB TEMPS. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE LATE
TONIGHT. I DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE OF 5 BELOW TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON WED...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND BECOMES
ANTI-CYCLONIC IN THE MORNING...SO I THINK THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY. I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR MEAS SNOW AFTER
600 AM. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUN WED...WE WILL GET
OFF TO SUCH A COLD START THAT THE MTNS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...AND FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT WILL STAY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
WEST WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLA. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE
WHILE RIDGES STAY MIXED. WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEYS SHOULD BE COLDER
THAN THE RIDGES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
MTN VALLEYS. BY THU...WE GET INTO THE TRUE RETURN FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. SHOULD BE A
GOOD WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL
INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL EASTERN SITES. EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
IN COMBO WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS
TO BLF...AND LOW MVFR TO LWB. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THRU THIS EVENING.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT
CHC FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE FROM THE WEST MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR IN
LIGHT PRECIP BY SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/JJ/KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 201508
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW
WESTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR THE NW NC PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW REALLY STARTING TO SHRINK AS VERY DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SURGE SE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE.
HAVE SEEN 1-3 INCHES IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AND
WILL LET THE WSW RIDE JUST A BIT LONGER UNTIL MOST PRECIP HAS
FADED. THINK MAJORITY GONE BY AROUND NOON IF NOT SOONER BUT GIVEN
SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LITTLE MELTING DUE TO COLD TEMPS THINK BEST
TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY UP A BIT LONGER. OTRW EXPECT UPSLOPE TO
GRADUALLY KICK IN NW ZONES AS FLOW TURNS MORE NW ESPCLY LATER ON
WHILE CENTRAL ZONES LIKELY SEE SOME SUN IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA IN
BETWEEN SO REDUCED POPS THERE. THINK NW WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP
ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO PRES RISES AND DECENT 85H JET. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH ESPCLY ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SW. LATEST MOS SUGGESTS
TEMPS ACROSS THE NW WONT GET MUCH ABOVE 20 AT BEST WITH LOW/MID
20S ELSW MOUNTAINS AND 25-31 PIEDMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
I HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE WE HAVE THE ADVISORIES GOING. FCST AMOUNTS
STILL LOKK GOOD AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AND
ERODE THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW ADVANCING NORTHWARD. OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS AS VERY COLD AIR IS
SURGING SOUTHWARD. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE EVEN THE PIEDMONT WILL RISE
BACK ABOVE FREEZING TODAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CWA. WSR-88D INDICATED PATCHES OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING BY UNCA STUDENTS AT ETSU IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED MOISTURE FROM SFC UP TO AROUND 620 MBS WITH A
N WIND UP TO 700 MB. THE RNK SOUNDING AT 00Z HAD MOISTURE ONLY UP
770 MB WITH NW FLOW UP TO 850 MB. THE SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND HINTS AT WHY THE UPSLOPE HAS NOT KICKED IN YET.
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT
2-D FRONTOGENESIS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF LIFT AROUND LYH AT 12Z WITH BEST FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR RDU AND IT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WITH SOME OF THE BETTER
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WILL
KEEP SNOW TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWS THIS
MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS THE QUESTION OF FORECAST. TREND APPEARS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PLAYED QPF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HPC. STILL
LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3
INCHES IN SRN CASWELL COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES KICK THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW. DECIDED TO TRIM POPS IN THE EAST AFTER 22Z...AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE. USED A
MET GUID AND CONTINUITY BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP
UNIFORM NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE OFF THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS ON
THE NW SLOPES DESPITE VERY LOW GUIDANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH
QPF- LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS
OF 20 OR 25 TO 1...I EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MTNS...WITH
SOME SINGLES DIGITS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE
-18C 850MB TEMPS. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE LATE
TONIGHT. I DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE OF 5 BELOW TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON WED...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND BECOMES
ANTI-CYCLONIC IN THE MORNING...SO I THINK THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY. I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR MEAS SNOW AFTER
600 AM. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUN WED...WE WILL GET
OFF TO SUCH A COLD START THAT THE MTNS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...AND FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT WILL STAY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
WEST WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLA. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE
WHILE RIDGES STAY MIXED. WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEYS SHOULD BE COLDER
THAN THE RIDGES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
MTN VALLEYS. BY THU...WE GET INTO THE TRUE RETURN FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. SHOULD BE A
GOOD WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN ROA AND LYH. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS
TO BLF...AND LOW MVFR TO LWB. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING IS SPREADING LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT OF NC...INCLUDING DAN. THIS SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAN WILL HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT
CHC FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/JJ/KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 201204
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
704 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING...WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS LOW WILL
SPREAD SNOW WESTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR THE NW NC PIEDMONT
AND SOUTHSIDE VA THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
I HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE WE HAVE THE ADVISORIES GOING. FCST AMOUNTS
STILL LOKK GOOD AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AND
ERODE THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW ADVANCING NORTHWARD. OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS AS VERY COLD AIR IS
SURGING SOUTHWARD. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE EVEN THE PIEDMONT WILL RISE
BACK ABOVE FREEZING TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CWA. WSR-88D INDICATED PATCHES OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING BY UNCA STUDENTS AT ETSU IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED MOISTURE FROM SFC UP TO AROUND 620 MBS WITH A
N WIND UP TO 700 MB. THE RNK SOUNDING AT 00Z HAD MOISTURE ONLY UP
770 MB WITH NW FLOW UP TO 850 MB. THE SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND HINTS AT WHY THE UPSLOPE HAS NOT KICKED IN YET.
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT
2-D FRONTOGENESIS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF LIFT AROUND LYH AT 12Z WITH BEST FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR RDU AND IT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WITH SOME OF THE BETTER
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WILL
KEEP SNOW TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWS THIS
MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS THE QUESTION OF FORECAST. TREND APPEARS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PLAYED QPF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HPC. STILL
LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3
INCHES IN SRN CASWELL COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES KICK THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW. DECIDED TO TRIM POPS IN THE EAST AFTER 22Z...AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE. USED A
MET GUID AND CONTINUITY BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP
UNIFORM NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE OFF THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS ON
THE NW SLOPES DESPITE VERY LOW GUIDANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH
QPF- LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS
OF 20 OR 25 TO 1...I EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MTNS...WITH
SOME SINGLES DIGITS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE
-18C 850MB TEMPS. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE LATE
TONIGHT. I DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE OF 5 BELOW TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON WED...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND BECOMES
ANTI-CYCLONIC IN THE MORNING...SO I THINK THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY. I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR MEAS SNOW AFTER
600 AM. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUN WED...WE WILL GET
OFF TO SUCH A COLD START THAT THE MTNS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...AND FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT WILL STAY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
WEST WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLA. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE
WHILE RIDGES STAY MIXED. WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEYS SHOULD BE COLDER
THAN THE RIDGES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
MTN VALLEYS. BY THU...WE GET INTO THE TRUE RETURN FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. SHOULD BE A
GOOD WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN ROA AND LYH. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS
TO BLF...AND LOW MVFR TO LWB. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING IS SPREADING LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT OF NC...INCLUDING DAN. THIS SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAN WILL HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT
CHC FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...JJ/KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 201123
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
623 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING...WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS LOW WILL
SPREAD SNOW WESTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR THE NW NC PIEDMONT
AND SOUTHSIDE VA THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CWA. WSR-88D INDICATED PATCHES OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING BY UNCA STUDENTS AT ETSU IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED MOISTURE FROM SFC UP TO AROUND 620 MBS WITH A
N WIND UP TO 700 MB. THE RNK SOUNDING AT 00Z HAD MOISTURE ONLY UP
770 MB WITH NW FLOW UP TO 850 MB. THE SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND HINTS AT WHY THE UPSLOPE HAS NOT KICKED IN YET.
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT
2-D FRONTOGENESIS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF LIFT AROUND LYH AT 12Z WITH BEST FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR RDU AND IT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WITH SOME OF THE BETTER
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WILL
KEEP SNOW TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWS THIS
MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS THE QUESTION OF FORECAST. TREND APPEARS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PLAYED QPF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HPC. STILL
LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3
INCHES IN SRN CASWELL COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES KICK THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW. DECIDED TO TRIM POPS IN THE EAST AFTER 22Z...AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE. USED A
MET GUID AND CONTINUITY BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP
UNIFORM NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE OFF THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS ON
THE NW SLOPES DESPITE VERY LOW GUIDANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH
QPF- LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS
OF 20 OR 25 TO 1...I EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MTNS...WITH
SOME SINGLES DIGITS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE
-18C 850MB TEMPS. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE LATE
TONIGHT. I DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE OF 5 BELOW TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON WED...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND BECOMES
ANTI-CYCLONIC IN THE MORNING...SO I THINK THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY. I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR MEAS SNOW AFTER
600 AM. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUN WED...WE WILL GET
OFF TO SUCH A COLD START THAT THE MTNS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...AND FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT WILL STAY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
WEST WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLA. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE
WHILE RIDGES STAY MIXED. WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEYS SHOULD BE COLDER
THAN THE RIDGES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
MTN VALLEYS. BY THU...WE GET INTO THE TRUE RETURN FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. SHOULD BE A
GOOD WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN ROA AND LYH. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS
TO BLF...AND LOW MVFR TO LWB. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING IS SPREADING LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT OF NC...INCLUDING DAN. THIS SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAN WILL HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT
CHC FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200857
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING...WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS LOW WILL
SPREAD SNOW WESTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR THE NW NC PIEDMONT
AND SOUTHSIDE VA THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CWA. WSR-88D INDICATED PATCHES OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING BY UNCA STUDENTS AT ETSU IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED MOISTURE FROM SFC UP TO AROUND 620 MBS WITH A
N WIND UP TO 700 MB. THE RNK SOUNDING AT 00Z HAD MOISTURE ONLY UP
770 MB WITH NW FLOW UP TO 850 MB. THE SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND HINTS AT WHY THE UPSLOPE HAS NOT KICKED IN YET.
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT
2-D FRONTOGENESIS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF LIFT AROUND LYH AT 12Z WITH BEST FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR RDU AND IT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WITH SOME OF THE BETTER
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WILL
KEEP SNOW TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWS THIS
MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS THE QUESTION OF FORECAST. TREND APPEARS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PLAYED QPF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HPC. STILL
LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3
INCHES IN SRN CASWELL COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES KICK THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW. DECIDED TO TRIM POPS IN THE EAST AFTER 22Z...AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE. USED A
MET GUID AND CONTINUITY BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP
UNIFORM NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE OFF THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS ON
THE NW SLOPES DESPITE VERY LOW GUIDANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH
QPF- LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS
OF 20 OR 25 TO 1...I EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MTNS...WITH
SOME SINGLES DIGITS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE
-18C 850MB TEMPS. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE LATE
TONIGHT. I DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE OF 5 BELOW TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON WED...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND BECOMES
ANTI-CYCLONIC IN THE MORNING...SO I THINK THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY. I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR MEAS SNOW AFTER
600 AM. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUN WED...WE WILL GET
OFF TO SUCH A COLD START THAT THE MTNS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...AND FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT WILL STAY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
WEST WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLA. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE
WHILE RIDGES STAY MIXED. WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEYS SHOULD BE COLDER
THAN THE RIDGES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
MTN VALLEYS. BY THU...WE GET INTO THE TRUE RETURN FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. SHOULD BE A
GOOD WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHECK AIRMETS AND SIGMETS FOR TURBULENCE...ICING AND IFR/MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL HINDER AVIATION
OPERATIONS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN ROA AND LYH. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NC THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT...INCLUDING DAN.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200838
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG A FRONT IN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CWA. WSR-88D INDICATED PATCHES OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING BY UNCA STUDENTS AT ETSU IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED MOISTURE FROM SFC UP TO AROUND 620 MBS WITH A
N WIND UP TO 700 MB. THE RNK SOUNDING AT 00Z HAD MOISTURE ONLY UP
770 MB WITH NW FLOW UP TO 850 MB. THE SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND HINTS AT WHY THE UPSLOPE HAS NOT KICKED IN YET.
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT
2-D FRONTOGENESIS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF LIFT AROUND LYH AT 12Z WITH BEST FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR RDU AND IT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WITH SOME OF THE BETTER
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WILL
KEEP SNOW TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWS THIS
MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS THE QUESTION OF FORECAST. TREND APPEARS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PLAYED QPF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HPC. STILL
LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3
INCHES IN SRN CASWELL COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES KICK THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW. DECIDED TO TRIM POPS IN THE EAST AFTER 22Z...AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE. USED A
MET GUID AND CONTINUITY BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP
UNIFORM NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE OFF THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS ON
THE NW SLOPES DESPITE VERY LOW GUIDANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH
QPF- LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS
OF 20 OR 25 TO 1...I EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MTNS...WITH
SOME SINGLES DIGITS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE
-18C 850MB TEMPS. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE LATE
TONIGHT. I DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE OF 5 BELOW TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ON WED...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND BECOMES
ANTI-CYCLONIC IN THE MORNING...SO I THINK THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY. I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR MEAS SNOW AFTER
600 AM. DESPITE WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUN WED...WE WILL GET
OFF TO SUCH A COLD START THAT THE MTNS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...AND FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT WILL STAY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
WEST WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLA. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE
WHILE RIDGES STAY MIXED. WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEYS SHOULD BE COLDER
THAN THE RIDGES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
MTN VALLEYS. BY THU...WE GET INTO THE TRUE RETURN FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. SHOULD BE A
GOOD WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHECK AIRMETS AND SIGMETS FOR TURBULENCE...ICING AND IFR/MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL HINDER AVIATION
OPERATIONS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN ROA AND LYH. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NC THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT...INCLUDING DAN.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200547
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1247 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG A FRONT IN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOLLOWING THE LATEST RUC AND 18Z NAM FOR NOW...AS IT IS SHOWING
BETTER LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA
ATTM...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE A DECIDING FACTOR ON WHO GETS ADVISORY SNOWS
AND WHO MISSES OUT ALTOGETHER. ATTM...OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE
SERN TIER OF COUNTIES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE AND
LIFT EAST BY EARLY MORNING. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIGGING ON
THE WRN SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS GOING TO DIG SO FAR
SOUTH...THAT ANY UPSLOPE ON THE BACKSIDE WILL BE LIMITED.
SHOULD SEE SNOW REMAINING IN THE TRIAD TO NORTHERN TRIANGLE AREA
NORTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARD 12Z. SEEMS THIS AREA WILL BE
IN THE BEST LOCATION OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR BUT ONLY EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3 INCHS IN SRN CASWELL
COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
TUESDAY NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE UPSLOPE. HOWEVER...BY THE
END OF THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY REMAIN
UNCHANGED TOO MUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
5H TROF PIVOTS THRU FROM THE WEST AND OFFSHORE LATE. RATHER DEEP NW
FLOW AND COLD 85H TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL RH
TO KEEP UPSLOPE -SHSN GOING THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST RAOBS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN STEEP
INVERSION AND SOME INSTABILITY EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY WEST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE NOT A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE
IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME SPILLOVER OF MOUNTAIN
STRATO-CU LIKELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FLOW STARTS TO
BACK MORE WESTERLY WED ALLOWING LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
DIMINISH WED MORNING. OTRW SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW
SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
MIXING MAY KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TUE NIGHT BUT STILL
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PUSH MOST SPOTS INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. READINGS START TO REBOUND WED
UNDER SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR ALTHO ANY WARMING ALOFT LIKELY OFFSET BY
SNOW COVER WEST WHERE HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EASTERN HALF THO DOES PROMISE A BIT OF A WARMUP AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHECK AIRMETS AND SIGMETS FOR TURBULENCE...ICING AND IFR/MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL HINDER AVIATION
OPERATIONS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN ROA AND LYH. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NC THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT...INCLUDING DAN.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200254
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG A FRONT IN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE LATEST RUC AND 18Z NAM FOR NOW...AS IT IS SHOWING
BETTER LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHSIDE VA
ATTM...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE A DECIDING FACTOR ON WHO GETS ADVISORY SNOWS
AND WHO MISSES OUT ALTOGETHER. ATTM...OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE
SERN TIER OF COUNTIES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE AND
LIFT EAST BY EARLY MORNING. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIGGING ON
THE WRN SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS GOING TO DIG SO FAR
SOUTH...THAT ANY UPSLOPE ON THE BACKSIDE WILL BE LIMITED.
SHOULD SEE SNOW REMAINING IN THE TRIAD TO NORTHERN TRIANGLE AREA
NORTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARD 12Z. SEEMS THIS AREA WILL BE
IN THE BEST LOCATION OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR BUT ONLY EXPECT 1-2 INCHES...MAYBE 3 INCHS IN SRN CASWELL
COUNTY WITH THIS EVENT.
TUESDAY NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE UPSLOPE. HOWEVER...BY THE
END OF THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY REMAIN
UNCHANGED TOO MUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
5H TROF PIVOTS THRU FROM THE WEST AND OFFSHORE LATE. RATHER DEEP NW
FLOW AND COLD 85H TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL RH
TO KEEP UPSLOPE -SHSN GOING THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST RAOBS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN STEEP
INVERSION AND SOME INSTABILITY EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY WEST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE NOT A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE
IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME SPILLOVER OF MOUNTAIN
STRATO-CU LIKELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FLOW STARTS TO
BACK MORE WESTERLY WED ALLOWING LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
DIMINISH WED MORNING. OTRW SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW
SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
MIXING MAY KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TUE NIGHT BUT STILL
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PUSH MOST SPOTS INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. READINGS START TO REBOUND WED
UNDER SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR ALTHO ANY WARMING ALOFT LIKELY OFFSET BY
SNOW COVER WEST WHERE HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EASTERN HALF THO DOES PROMISE A BIT OF A WARMUP AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NC TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT...INCLUDING DAN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 192312
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
612 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
INTO NC BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING
THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/WINTER STORM WARNINGS THAT
WERE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA TO EXPIRE. WHILE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED.
OUR FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL EXIT EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE RAIN. HEADING NORTH AND WEST OF
HERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY COLDER. PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/SNOW TO RAIN THE FARTHER WEST AND
NORTH OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH QPF PROVIDED BY HPC FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY SNOW/RAIN RATIOS WILL BE LOW GIVEN THE MILD
TEMPERATURES...BUT BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AROUND A
20 TO 1 RATIO. FOLLOWING THIS TREND...AND THE TREND OF THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SNOW FALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THE LOW END OF ADVISORY
LEVELS. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR
ROCKINGHAM AND CASWELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND HALIFAX AND
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN ROCKINGHAM...HALIFAX AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN CASWELL. TO ALLOW FOR A BROAD TIME
WINDOW AND TO BETTER MATCH WITH AKQ AND RAH...WILL HAVE THE
ADVISORY RUN FROM 9PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6PM TUESDAY.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE UPSLOPE.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE
MOVES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE.
FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH A
MAV/MET BLEND WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL BIASES AND FORECAST
PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
5H TROF PIVOTS THRU FROM THE WEST AND OFFSHORE LATE. RATHER DEEP NW
FLOW AND COLD 85H TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL RH
TO KEEP UPSLOPE -SHSN GOING THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST RAOBS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN STEEP
INVERSION AND SOME INSTABILITY EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY WEST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE NOT A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE
IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME SPILLOVER OF MOUNTAIN
STRATO-CU LIKELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FLOW STARTS TO
BACK MORE WESTERLY WED ALLOWING LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
DIMINISH WED MORNING. OTRW SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW
SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
MIXING MAY KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TUE NIGHT BUT STILL
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PUSH MOST SPOTS INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. READINGS START TO REBOUND WED
UNDER SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR ALTHO ANY WARMING ALOFT LIKELY OFFSET BY
SNOW COVER WEST WHERE HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EASTERN HALF THO DOES PROMISE A BIT OF A WARMUP AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NC TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT...INCLUDING DAN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191946
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
246 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
INTO NC BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING
THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUR FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL EXIT EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE RAIN. HEADING NORTH AND WEST OF
HERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY COLDER. PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/SNOW TO RAIN THE FARTHER WEST AND
NORTH OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH QPF PROVIDED BY HPC FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY SNOW/RAIN RATIOS WILL BE LOW GIVEN THE MILD
TEMPERATURES...BUT BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AROUND A
20 TO 1 RATIO. FOLLOWING THIS TREND...AND THE TREND OF THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SNOW FALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THE LOW END OF ADVISORY
LEVELS. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR
ROCKINGHAM AND CASWELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND HALIFAX AND
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN ROCKINGHAM...HALIFAX AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN CASWELL. TO ALLOW FOR A BROAD TIME
WINDOW AND TO BETTER MATCH WITH AKQ AND RAH...WILL HAVE THE
ADVISORY RUN FROM 9PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6PM TUESDAY.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE UPSLOPE.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER LITTLE IMPULSE
MOVES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE.
FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH A
MAV/MET BLEND WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL BIASES AND FORECAST
PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
5H TROF PIVOTS THRU FROM THE WEST AND OFFSHORE LATE. RATHER DEEP NW
FLOW AND COLD 85H TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL RH
TO KEEP UPSLOPE -SHSN GOING THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST RAOBS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN STEEP
INVERSION AND SOME INSTABILITY EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY WEST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE NOT A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE
IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME SPILLOVER OF MOUNTAIN
STRATO-CU LIKELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FLOW STARTS TO
BACK MORE WESTERLY WED ALLOWING LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
DIMINISH WED MORNING. OTRW SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW
SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
MIXING MAY KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TUE NIGHT BUT STILL
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PUSH MOST SPOTS INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. READINGS START TO REBOUND WED
UNDER SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR ALTHO ANY WARMING ALOFT LIKELY OFFSET BY
SNOW COVER WEST WHERE HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EASTERN HALF THO DOES PROMISE A BIT OF A WARMUP AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONG RANGE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS SHOULD BRING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
USHERING IN -5 TO -15 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEEPEN AND WHILE
THE ECMWF WARMS TEMPS TO ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN MONDAY...GFS
AND ITS STRONGER 1036 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST WOULD START PRECIP AS
FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...TO OCNL
IFR CIGS IN THE MTNS...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR OUT EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE A SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE DANVILLE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS ROA AND LYH.
MEANWHILE IN THE MTNS...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ058-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ009-012-016.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ005-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ002.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191709
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1209 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
INTO NC BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING
THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LESSENING SNOW COVERAGE ON RADAR AND WARMING TEMPS WILL
GO AHEAD AND CANCEL MUCH OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE THE WARNING GOING FAR SW SINCE STILL
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATION THERE AS WELL AS A SURROUNDING
BUFFER OF A FEW COUNTIES THAT WILL BE KEPT IN THE ADVISORY. WILL
ALSO LOWER POPS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS WELL.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN SNOWFALL COVERAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ECHOES ON THE DECREASE AGAIN AS BEST SUPPORT LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE AND FINAL WAVE ROUNDS TO THE WEST PER VAPOR LOOP. THIS
MAKES FORECAST OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IFFY THRU THE AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN BETTER LIFT DEVELOPING WITH NEXT WAVE OVER EASTERN
TN/WESTERN NC. NEW NAM BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO IN
KEEPING MOST OF THE SIG QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR SW
IN CONVERGENCE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. HOWEVER LATEST LOCAL
WRF KEEPS PRECIP GOING EVEN OUT EAST BUT APPEARS PROBABLY NOT A
LOT OF ADDED ACCUMULATION EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SW. SINCE STILL
HAVE SOME SLICK ROADS AROUND AND AT LEAST AREAS OF -SN PLAN TO
KEEP THE GOING ADVISORY/WARNING IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK SOME. OTRW KEPT DECREASING TREND IN
POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RAISED HIGHS SOME ESPCLY SE WHERE SOME
-RA MAY MIX IN GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 40-45 RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
BELOW...
QUICK UPDATE TO ELEVATE THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
IN WATAUGA...ASHE AND GRAYSON CTYS. WITH HEAVIER SNOW REDEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF THAT AREA AND HAVING REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ALREADY ON
THE GROUND APPEARS WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED IN SPOTS TODAY.
OTRW NO ADDED CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ATTM.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR SNOW TODAY...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. KFCX 88D CONTINUED TO SHOWED SCT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. BATCH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BEFORE UPSLOPE SNOW KICKS IN.
SPECIAL SOUNDINGS BY UNCA STUDENTS TAKEN FROM ESTU CAMPUS IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW THIS MORNING...06Z
SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM SFC TO 680 MB WITH MINUS 18 DEGREE C
AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AND ALMOST ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO C. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...AROUND A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THE FIRST IMPULSE STARTING OFF OVER THE OH VLY MON
MORNING... ALREADY PRODUCING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS KY...WILL
LIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WILL DIG TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM TAZEWELL COUNTY
VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THIS REGION
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS
AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY. THERE STILL REMAIN
QUESTIONS ON HOW THE LOW CENTER IS CARVED OUT LATER TODAY. CUT BACK
MOS GUID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY DIGS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW NC AND POSSIBLY SOUTHSIDE VA MAY BE ON THE NRN
EDGE OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY FALLING IN
THE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. I HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW...AND SINCE IT IS IN THE LATE 2ND TO THIRD PERIODS...WILL
JUST ADDRESS IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR THE MTNS...IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SECOND SHORT WAVE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...BUT BEST PERIOD OF NW
TRAJECTORIES AND DEEPEST MOISTURE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS
TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ON
THE WESTERN SLOPES FOR THIS PERIOD. QPF IS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS...BUT LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO
1...POSSIBLY HIGHER...SO SNOW ACCUMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ON WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WE MAY END UP
NEEDING ANOTHER ADVISORY BACK THAT WAY- WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE
HWO AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A COLD PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE SE COAST DEEPENS AND PULLS COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
REGION. MODELS NOW SHOW -18C AT 850 MBS TOWARD WED MORNING IN THE
MTNS. I HAVE LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST
LOCATIONS TUE AND WED. STRONG WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE A CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...THOUGH TUE NIGHT GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...TO OCNL
IFR CIGS IN THE MTNS...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR OUT EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE A SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE DANVILLE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS ROA AND LYH.
MEANWHILE IN THE MTNS...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ009-012-016.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ002.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191626 AAA
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1126 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
INTO NC BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING
THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LESSENING SNOW COVERAGE ON RADAR AND WARMING TEMPS WILL
GO AHEAD AND CANCEL MUCH OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE THE WARNING GOING FAR SW SINCE STILL
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATION THERE AS WELL AS A SURROUNDING
BUFFER OF A FEW COUNTIES THAT WILL BE KEPT IN THE ADVISORY. WILL
ALSO LOWER POPS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS WELL.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN SNOWFALL COVERAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ECHOES ON THE DECREASE AGAIN AS BEST SUPPORT LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE AND FINAL WAVE ROUNDS TO THE WEST PER VAPOR LOOP. THIS
MAKES FORECAST OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IFFY THRU THE AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN BETTER LIFT DEVELOPING WITH NEXT WAVE OVER EASTERN
TN/WESTERN NC. NEW NAM BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO IN
KEEPING MOST OF THE SIG QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR SW
IN CONVERGENCE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. HOWEVER LATEST LOCAL
WRF KEEPS PRECIP GOING EVEN OUT EAST BUT APPEARS PROBABLY NOT A
LOT OF ADDED ACCUMULATION EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SW. SINCE STILL
HAVE SOME SLICK ROADS AROUND AND AT LEAST AREAS OF -SN PLAN TO
KEEP THE GOING ADVISORY/WARNING IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK SOME. OTRW KEPT DECREASING TREND IN
POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RAISED HIGHS SOME ESPCLY SE WHERE SOME
-RA MAY MIX IN GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 40-45 RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
BELOW...
QUICK UPDATE TO ELEVATE THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
IN WATAUGA...ASHE AND GRAYSON CTYS. WITH HEAVIER SNOW REDEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF THAT AREA AND HAVING REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ALREADY ON
THE GROUND APPEARS WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED IN SPOTS TODAY.
OTRW NO ADDED CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ATTM.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR SNOW TODAY...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. KFCX 88D CONTINUED TO SHOWED SCT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. BATCH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BEFORE UPSLOPE SNOW KICKS IN.
SPECIAL SOUNDINGS BY UNCA STUDENTS TAKEN FROM ESTU CAMPUS IN
JOHNSON CITY SHOWED FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW THIS MORNING...06Z
SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM SFC TO 680 MB WITH MINUS 18 DEGREE C
AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AND ALMOST ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO C. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...AROUND A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THE FIRST IMPULSE STARTING OFF OVER THE OH VLY MON
MORNING... ALREADY PRODUCING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS KY...WILL
LIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WILL DIG TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM TAZEWELL COUNTY
VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THIS REGION
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS
AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY. THERE STILL REMAIN
QUESTIONS ON HOW THE LOW CENTER IS CARVED OUT LATER TODAY. CUT BACK
MOS GUID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY DIGS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW NC AND POSSIBLY SOUTHSIDE VA MAY BE ON THE NRN
EDGE OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY FALLING IN
THE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. I HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW...AND SINCE IT IS IN THE LATE 2ND TO THIRD PERIODS...WILL
JUST ADDRESS IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR THE MTNS...IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SECOND SHORT WAVE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...BUT BEST PERIOD OF NW
TRAJECTORIES AND DEEPEST MOISTURE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS
TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ON
THE WESTERN SLOPES FOR THIS PERIOD. QPF IS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS...BUT LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO
1...POSSIBLY HIGHER...SO SNOW ACCUMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ON WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WE MAY END UP
NEEDING ANOTHER ADVISORY BACK THAT WAY- WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE
HWO AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A COLD PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE SE COAST DEEPENS AND PULLS COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
REGION. MODELS NOW SHOW -18C AT 850 MBS TOWARD WED MORNING IN THE
MTNS. I HAVE LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST
LOCATIONS TUE AND WED. STRONG WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE A CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...THOUGH TUE NIGHT GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS...TO OCNL
IFR CIGS IN THE MTNS...WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED BY
THE AFTERNOON...AND CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT. ANOTHE
DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW PRESSURE WGICH WILLMOVE ACROSS
NC TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW NORTHWARD INTO
THE DANVILLE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AS FA RNORTH AS ROA
AND LYH. MEANWHILE IN THE MTNS...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILL IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE UPSLOPE MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ009-012-016.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ002.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190915
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWAR AND INTO NC BY THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR SNOW TODAY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. KFCX 88D CONTINUED TO SHOWED SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. BATCH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BEFORE UPSLOPE SNOW KICKS IN. SPECIAL
SOUNDINGS BY UNCA STUDENTS TAKEN FROM ESTU CAMPUS IN JOHNSON CITY
SHOWED FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW THIS MORNING...06Z SOUNDING WAS
SATURATED FROM SFC TO 680 MB WITH MINUS 18 DEGREE C AT THE TOP OF
THE LAYER AND ALMOST ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO C. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AROUND A
MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE FIRST IMPULSE
STARTING OFF OVER THE OH VLY MON MORNING... ALREADY PRODUCING
ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS KY...WILL LIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT THE
SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL DIG TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM TAZEWELL COUNTY
VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THIS REGION
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS
AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY. THERE STILL REMAIN
QUESTIONS ON HOW THE LOW CENTER IS CARVED OUT LATER TODAY. CUT BACK
MOS GUID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY DIGS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW NC AND POSSIBLY SOUTHSIDE VA MAY BE ON THE NRN
EDGE OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY FALLING IN
THE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. I HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW...AND SINCE IT IS IN THE LATE 2ND TO THIRD PERIODS...WILL
JUST ADDRESS IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR THE MTNS...IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SECOND SHORT WAVE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...BUT BEST PERIOD OF NW
TRAJECTORIES AND DEEPEST MOISTURE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS
TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ON
THE WESTERN SLOPES FOR THIS PERIOD. QPF IS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS...BUT LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO
1...POSSIBLY HIGHER...SO SNOW ACCUMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ON WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WE MAY END UP
NEEDING ANOTHER ADVISORY BACK THAT WAY- WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE
HWO AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A COLD PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE SE COAST DEEPENS AND PULLS COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
REGION. MODELS NOW SHOW -18C AT 850 MBS TOWARD WED MORNING IN THE
MTNS. I HAVE LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST
LOCATIONS TUE AND WED. STRONG WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE A CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...THOUGH TUE NIGHT GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
TODAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SCT MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT BLF AND LWB.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ007-009>020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JJ
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190655
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF ADVISORY UP THRU THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. BATCH OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE UPSLOPE SNOW KICKS
IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SINCE SNOW BANDS ARE HEADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT SENDING
ANOTHER ZFP/GRID UPDATE TO REFLECT HIER POPS INCLUDING SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. WILL HOLD ON EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOCALIZED HEAVIER BANDING TOTALS FOR NOW.
APPEARS BACK EDGE OF INIT WAVE MAY BE PUSHING THRU THE FAR WEST
ATTM SUGGESTING THINGS MAY BRIEFLY TAPER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHER DISCUSSIONS BELOW...
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL ADD IN
A FEW MORE CTYS TO THE GOING WSW TONIGHT SINCE EXPECT MORE OFF AND
ON BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. OTRW FEW CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER UPDATE.
INIT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROF NOW PIVOTING INTO SW VA WHERE
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ESPCLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. AS BEST LIFT WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSES OVERNIGHT EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOWFALL UNTIL NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS IN TOWARD
THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ENHANCE ONGOING LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY SW VA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO NOT MAKING BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING
ADVISORY THIS EVENING. DEEP BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WEST WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS LIKELY TO KEEP SNOW BANDS FROM GOING TOO
FAR EAST ALTHO DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE ENOUGH TO PUSH LOW POPS OUT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THINK A FEW
HOURS OF HIGHER LIKELY OR CAT POPS IN ORDER WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN LATE AS NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN
DRY SLOT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
BEING WELL TO WEST SO TWEAKING CLOUDS DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS OUT
EAST. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED WITH LATEST LAV
SUPPORTING LOWER LOWS A CAT NW AND SOME SPOTS OUT EAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE QPF NUMBERS HPC WAS DEPICTING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADJUST FOR GREATER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
TAZEWELL COUNTY VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV. TONIGHT FOLKS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG
A NORTH WILKESBORO NC TO BLACKSBURG VA TO A WARM SPRINGS VA LINE.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AT BEST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...AND THEN
NOT TOO FAR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS THE
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OPENS AND SHIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS...ONE TMRW MORNING AND THE
OTHER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BASES THE TROF AND LIFTS OUT DURING THE
MORNING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHEARS OUT. WILL FCST 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND GO WITH ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TNGT AT 6PM AND GOING THRU 6PM MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
TODAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SCT MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT BLF AND LWB.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ007-009>020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190549
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1249 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SINCE SNOW BANDS ARE HEADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT SENDING
ANOTHER ZFP/GRID UPDATE TO REFLECT HIER POPS INCLUDING SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. WILL HOLD ON EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOCALIZED HEAVIER BANDING TOTALS FOR NOW.
APPEARS BACK EDGE OF INIT WAVE MAY BE PUSHING THRU THE FAR WEST
ATTM SUGGESTING THINGS MAY BRIEFLY TAPER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHER DISCUSSIONS BELOW...
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL ADD IN
A FEW MORE CTYS TO THE GOING WSW TONIGHT SINCE EXPECT MORE OFF AND
ON BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. OTRW FEW CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER UPDATE.
INIT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROF NOW PIVOTING INTO SW VA WHERE
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ESPCLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. AS BEST LIFT WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSES OVERNIGHT EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOWFALL UNTIL NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS IN TOWARD
THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ENHANCE ONGOING LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY SW VA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO NOT MAKING BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING
ADVISORY THIS EVENING. DEEP BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WEST WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS LIKELY TO KEEP SNOW BANDS FROM GOING TOO
FAR EAST ALTHO DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE ENOUGH TO PUSH LOW POPS OUT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THINK A FEW
HOURS OF HIGHER LIKELY OR CAT POPS IN ORDER WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN LATE AS NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN
DRY SLOT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
BEING WELL TO WEST SO TWEAKING CLOUDS DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS OUT
EAST. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED WITH LATEST LAV
SUPPORTING LOWER LOWS A CAT NW AND SOME SPOTS OUT EAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE QPF NUMBERS HPC WAS DEPICTING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADJUST FOR GREATER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
TAZEWELL COUNTY VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV. TONIGHT FOLKS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG
A NORTH WILKESBORO NC TO BLACKSBURG VA TO A WARM SPRINGS VA LINE.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AT BEST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...AND THEN
NOT TOO FAR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS THE
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OPENS AND SHIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS...ONE TMRW MORNING AND THE
OTHER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BASES THE TROF AND LIFTS OUT DURING THE
MORNING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHEARS OUT. WILL FCST 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND GO WITH ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TNGT AT 6PM AND GOING THRU 6PM MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
TODAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SCT MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT BLF AND LWB.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ007-009>013-015-016.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190342 AAA
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1042 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SINCE SNOW BANDS ARE HEADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT SENDING
ANOTHER ZFP/GRID UPDATE TO REFLECT HIER POPS INCLUDING SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. WILL HOLD ON EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOCALIZED HEAVIER BANDING TOTALS FOR NOW.
APPEARS BACK EDGE OF INIT WAVE MAY BE PUSHING THRU THE FAR WEST
ATTM SUGGESTING THINGS MAY BRIEFLY TAPER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHER DISCUSSIONS BELOW...
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL ADD IN
A FEW MORE CTYS TO THE GOING WSW TONIGHT SINCE EXPECT MORE OFF AND
ON BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. OTRW FEW CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER UPDATE.
INIT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROF NOW PIVOTING INTO SW VA WHERE
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ESPCLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. AS BEST LIFT WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSES OVERNIGHT EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOWFALL UNTIL NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS IN TOWARD
THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ENHANCE ONGOING LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY SW VA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO NOT MAKING BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING
ADVISORY THIS EVENING. DEEP BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WEST WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS LIKELY TO KEEP SNOW BANDS FROM GOING TOO
FAR EAST ALTHO DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE ENOUGH TO PUSH LOW POPS OUT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THINK A FEW
HOURS OF HIGHER LIKELY OR CAT POPS IN ORDER WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN LATE AS NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN
DRY SLOT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
BEING WELL TO WEST SO TWEAKING CLOUDS DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS OUT
EAST. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED WITH LATEST LAV
SUPPORTING LOWER LOWS A CAT NW AND SOME SPOTS OUT EAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE QPF NUMBERS HPC WAS DEPICTING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADJUST FOR GREATER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
TAZEWELL COUNTY VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV. TONIGHT FOLKS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG
A NORTH WILKESBORO NC TO BLACKSBURG VA TO A WARM SPRINGS VA LINE.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AT BEST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...AND THEN
NOT TOO FAR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS THE
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OPENS AND SHIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS...ONE TMRW MORNING AND THE
OTHER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BASES THE TROF AND LIFTS OUT DURING THE
MORNING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHEARS OUT. WILL FCST 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND GO WITH ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TNGT AT 6PM AND GOING THRU 6PM MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...TWO UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MOVING INTO FAR
WESTERN VA AT 23Z WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 04Z AND BRING SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR CIGS. AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT BLF AND LWB.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>013-015-016.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190221 AAA
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
921 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL ADD IN
A FEW MORE CTYS TO THE GOING WSW TONIGHT SINCE EXPECT MORE OFF AND
ON BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. OTRW FEW CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER UPDATE.
INIT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROF NOW PIVOTING INTO SW VA WHERE
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ESPCLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. AS BEST LIFT WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSES OVERNIGHT EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOWFALL UNTIL NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS IN TOWARD
THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ENHANCE ONGOING LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY SW VA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO NOT MAKING BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING
ADVISORY THIS EVENING. DEEP BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WEST WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS LIKELY TO KEEP SNOW BANDS FROM GOING TOO
FAR EAST ALTHO DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE ENOUGH TO PUSH LOW POPS OUT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THINK A FEW
HOURS OF HIGHER LIKELY OR CAT POPS IN ORDER WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN LATE AS NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN
DRY SLOT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
BEING WELL TO WEST SO TWEAKING CLOUDS DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS OUT
EAST. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED WITH LATEST LAV
SUPPORTING LOWER LOWS A CAT NW AND SOME SPOTS OUT EAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE QPF NUMBERS HPC WAS DEPICTING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADJUST FOR GREATER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
TAZEWELL COUNTY VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV. TONIGHT FOLKS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG
A NORTH WILKESBORO NC TO BLACKSBURG VA TO A WARM SPRINGS VA LINE.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AT BEST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...AND THEN
NOT TOO FAR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS THE
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OPENS AND SHIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS...ONE TMRW MORNING AND THE
OTHER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BASES THE TROF AND LIFTS OUT DURING THE
MORNING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHEARS OUT. WILL FCST 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND GO WITH ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TNGT AT 6PM AND GOING THRU 6PM MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...TWO UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MOVING INTO FAR
WESTERN VA AT 23Z WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 04Z AND BRING SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR CIGS. AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT BLF AND LWB.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>013-015-016.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190113
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
813 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
INIT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROF NOW PIVOTING INTO SW VA WHERE
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ESPCLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. AS BEST LIFT WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSES OVERNIGHT EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOWFALL UNTIL NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS IN TOWARD
THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ENHANCE ONGOING LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW LIKELY
ESPCLY SW VA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO NOT MAKING BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING
ADVISORY THIS EVENING. DEEP BUT NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WEST WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS LIKELY TO KEEP SNOW BANDS FROM GOING TOO
FAR EAST ALTHO DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE ENOUGH TO PUSH LOW POPS OUT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THINK A FEW
HOURS OF HIGHER LIKELY OR CAT POPS IN ORDER WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN LATE AS NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN
DRY SLOT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
BEING WELL TO WEST SO TWEAKING CLOUDS DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS OUT
EAST. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED WITH LATEST LAV
SUPPORTING LOWER LOWS A CAT NW AND SOME SPOTS OUT EAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE QPF NUMBERS HPC WAS DEPICTING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADJUST FOR GREATER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
TAZEWELL COUNTY VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV. TONIGHT FOLKS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG
A NORTH WILKESBORO NC TO BLACKSBURG VA TO A WARM SPRINGS VA LINE.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AT BEST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...AND THEN
NOT TOO FAR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS THE
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OPENS AND SHIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS...ONE TMRW MORNING AND THE
OTHER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BASES THE TROF AND LIFTS OUT DURING THE
MORNING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHEARS OUT. WILL FCST 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND GO WITH ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TNGT AT 6PM AND GOING THRU 6PM MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...TWO UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MOVING INTO FAR
WESTERN VA AT 23Z WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 04Z AND BRING SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR CIGS. AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT BLF AND LWB.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>012-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 182321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
621 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL
IMPULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THE
NEXT ONE OF THESE WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING FROM KENTUCKY INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ENOUGH TO
PROMPT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE QPF NUMBERS HPC WAS DEPICTING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADJUST FOR GREATER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
TAZEWELL COUNTY VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV. TONIGHT FOLKS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG A
NORTH WILKESBORO NC TO BLACKSBURG VA TO A WARM SPRINGS VA LINE. EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AT BEST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...AND THEN NOT TOO
FAR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS THE FIRST TIER OF
COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OPENS AND SHIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS...ONE TMRW MORNING AND THE
OTHER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BASES THE TROF AND LIFTS OUT DURING THE
MORNING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHEARS OUT. WILL FCST 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND GO WITH ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TNGT AT 6PM AND GOING THRU 6PM MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...TWO UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MOVING INTO FAR
WESTERN VA AT 23Z WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 04Z AND BRING SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR CIGS. AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT BLF AND LWB.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>012-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PH
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181941
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
SNOW SHOWRES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL
IMPULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THE
NEXT ONE OF THESE WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING FROM KENTUCKY INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ENOUGH TO
PROMPT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE QPF NUMBERS HPC WAS DEPICTING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADJUST FOR GREATER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
TAZEWELL COUNTY VA NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV. TONIGHT FOLKS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. HEADING EAST OF THIS AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG A
NORTH WILKESBORO NC TO BLACKSBURG VA TO A WARM SPRINGS VA LINE. EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AT BEST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...AND THEN NOT TOO
FAR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS THE FIRST TIER OF
COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OPENS AND SHIFTS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS...ONE TMRW MORNING AND THE
OTHER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BASES THE TROF AND LIFTS OUT DURING THE
MORNING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHEARS OUT. WILL FCST 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND GO WITH ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TNGT AT 6PM AND GOING THRU 6PM MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO ONE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM AND
SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM.
UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REMOVED SMALL PRECIP CHCS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WELCOME
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL HAVE A DISTINCT SPLIT
BETWEEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER
ABOUT 12Z TUESDAY...SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...MVFR CIGS WITH VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE EARLY EVENING. BY 06Z...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INCREASES. THE TROUGH AXIS OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE EVEN BETTER AND MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIOND DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED BY THE SNOW. THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009>012-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181901
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
201 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST TEMPERATURES IN TODAYS ADVISORY AREA HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING RADAR RETURNS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT BEST REMAINING
SO HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE TWEAKED LATEST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY. DIGGING SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS STRONGER ON THE
NAM/WRF...WILL DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MOVES ACROSS NC MONDAY. STRONGER/WETTER NAM IS THE OUTLIER...SO
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FCST
WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP- WHICH WOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW. I HAVE RAISED POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MON
MORNING TO CHC FOR ALL BU THE LYH AREA EASTWARD IN VA. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW ACCUM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS IS LIKELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUM UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS ENDS...THEN WE CAN
ADDRESS SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY FROM BLUEFIELD AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL ADDRESS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT
LIKE THE RECENT ARCTIC BLAST. TRAJECTORIES LOOK GOOD FOR SOME LAKE
MOISTURE EARLY...BUT THEN ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE COULD BACK
THE FLOW AND END ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY. WITH TIMING
DIFFS IN THE MODELS...HAVE LEFT POPS CHC MONDAY NIGHT IN UPLSOPE
AREAS. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORT WAVE DIGS DEEPER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH STRONG COASTAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY-
PROBLEM IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. RIGHT NOW..MODELS ARE ALL
OVER...BUT ANY OF TH SOULTIONS WOULD NOT BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
AFFECT EVEN THE SERN CWA. WOULD JUST BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND RENEWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. THIS MAY BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD- BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL HAVE A DISTINCT SPLIT
BETWEEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER
ABOUT 12Z TUESDAY...SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...MVFR CIGS WITH VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE EARLY EVENING. BY 06Z...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INCREASES. THE TROUGH AXIS OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE EVEN BETTER AND MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIOND DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED BY THE SNOW. THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...DS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181800
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA TO CONTINUE FOR NOW. IF A GENEROUS PORTION OF THAT AREA
BEGINS REPORTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...WILL CANCEL THE
ADVISORY EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY. DIGGING SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS STRONGER ON THE
NAM/WRF...WILL DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MOVES ACROSS NC MONDAY. STRONGER/WETTER NAM IS THE OUTLIER...SO
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FCST
WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP- WHICH WOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW. I HAVE RAISED POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MON
MORNING TO CHC FOR ALL BU THE LYH AREA EASTWARD IN VA. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW ACCUM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS IS LIKELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUM UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS ENDS...THEN WE CAN
ADDRESS SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY FROM BLUEFIELD AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL ADDRESS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT
LIKE THE RECENT ARCTIC BLAST. TRAJECTORIES LOOK GOOD FOR SOME LAKE
MOISTURE EARLY...BUT THEN ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE COULD BACK
THE FLOW AND END ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY. WITH TIMING
DIFFS IN THE MODELS...HAVE LEFT POPS CHC MONDAY NIGHT IN UPLSOPE
AREAS. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORT WAVE DIGS DEEPER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH STRONG COASTAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY-
PROBLEM IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. RIGHT NOW..MODELS ARE ALL
OVER...BUT ANY OF TH SOULTIONS WOULD NOT BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
AFFECT EVEN THE SERN CWA. WOULD JUST BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND RENEWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. THIS MAY BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD- BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL HAVE A DISTINCT SPLIT
BETWEEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER
ABOUT 12Z TUESDAY...SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...MVFR CIGS WITH VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE EARLY EVENING. BY 06Z...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INCREASES. THE TROUGH AXIS OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE EVEN BETTER AND MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIOND DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED BY THE SNOW. THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE
WV MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SW VA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ018>020.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...DS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181543
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COOL IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
INTIAL ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS IS TRENDING TO
SNOW GRAINS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW. PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO
REFLECT A CHANGE FROM A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. NORTH OF BLACKSBURG TO
NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY NOT
END AS QUICKLY THERE. SO WILL BE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY TO 4PM IN
THIS AREA. WHERE THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ENDS AT NOON WILL
PROBABLY FOLLOW UP WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WHAT WILL STILL PROBABLY BE SLICK
ROADS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY. DIGGING SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS STRONGER ON THE
NAM/WRF...WILL DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MOVES ACROSS NC MONDAY. STRONGER/WETTER NAM IS THE OUTLIER...SO
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FCST
WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP- WHICH WOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW. I HAVE RAISED POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MON
MORNING TO CHC FOR ALL BU THE LYH AREA EASTWARD IN VA. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW ACCUM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS IS LIKELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUM UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS ENDS...THEN WE CAN
ADDRESS SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY FROM BLUEFIELD AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL ADDRESS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT
LIKE THE RECENT ARCTIC BLAST. TRAJECTORIES LOOK GOOD FOR SOME LAKE
MOISTURE EARLY...BUT THEN ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE COULD BACK
THE FLOW AND END ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY. WITH TIMING
DIFFS IN THE MODELS...HAVE LEFT POPS CHC MONDAY NIGHT IN UPLSOPE
AREAS. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORT WAVE DIGS DEEPER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH STRONG COASTAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY-
PROBLEM IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. RIGHT NOW..MODELS ARE ALL
OVER...BUT ANY OF TH SOULTIONS WOULD NOT BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
AFFECT EVEN THE SERN CWA. WOULD JUST BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND RENEWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. THIS MAY BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD- BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MTNS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS FZDZ...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. I HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO PERIODS IN BOTH BLF AND LWB FOR FZDZ.LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GIVEN DRY
AIR IT WILL BE TOUGH TO REACH THE GROUND...AND IN ADDITION APPEARS
CIGS WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND MVFR FOR ROA...AND JUST ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS AT LYH/DAN. THE IFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING MOST SITES...WITH EXCEPTION OF
BLF. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST. A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE DETERIORATING CANDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ALL SITES WITH LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS
WITH LIGHT SNOW. UPSLOPE -SHSN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION ON NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES
LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA BY THU.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ018>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-
009>017.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ044-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181143
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
643 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAL COVERAGE AND UNTIL
NOON TODAY. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF LIGHT MIST/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS SPREADING EASTWARD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
MAY RISE BY MID MORNING...ROAD TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW
FREEZING. WILL MONITER PROGRESS THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
REVISIONS ON WINTER WEATHER WATCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF -FZRA/-FZDZ. FROZEN ROAD SURFACES WILL
MAKE FOR VERY ICY ROADS IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/85H THETA-E ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
UNDER THE UPPER JET THIS MORNING. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FALL EAST TO
PUSH BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY IN THE EAST SO KEEP LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST TODAY.
THE LOCAL WRF...NAM AND GFS HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT LATE
TODAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WINTRY PCPN THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO A
RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY
AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES PLAYED IT CLOSE TO MAV AND WRFARWRNK BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY. DIGGING SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS STRONGER ON THE
NAM/WRF...WILL DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MOVES ACROSS NC MONDAY. STRONGER/WETTER NAM IS THE OUTLIER...SO
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FCST
WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP- WHICH WOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW. I HAVE RAISED POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MON
MORNING TO CHC FOR ALL BU THE LYH AREA EASTWARD IN VA. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW ACCUM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS IS LIKELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUM UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS ENDS...THEN WE CAN
ADDRESS SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY FROM BLUEFIELD AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL ADDRESS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT
LIKE THE RECENT ARCTIC BLAST. TRAJECTORIES LOOK GOOD FOR SOME LAKE
MOISTURE EARLY...BUT THEN ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE COULD BACK
THE FLOW AND END ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY. WITH TIMING
DIFFS IN THE MODELS...HAVE LEFT POPS CHC MONDAY NIGHT IN UPLSOPE
AREAS. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORT WAVE DIGS DEEPER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH STRONG COASTAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY-
PROBLEM IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. RIGHT NOW..MODELS ARE ALL
OVER...BUT ANY OF TH SOULTIONS WOULD NOT BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
AFFECT EVEN THE SERN CWA. WOULD JUST BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND RENEWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. THIS MAY BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD- BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MTNS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS FZDZ...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. I HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO PERIODS IN BOTH BLF AND LWB FOR FZDZ.LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GIVEN DRY
AIR IT WILL BE TOUGH TO REACH THE GROUND...AND IN ADDITION APPEARS
CIGS WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND MVFR FOR ROA...AND JUST ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS AT LYH/DAN. THE IFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING MOST SITES...WITH EXCEPTION OF
BLF. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST. A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE DETERIORATING CANDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ALL SITES WITH LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS
WITH LIGHT SNOW. UPSLOPE -SHSN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION ON NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES
LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA BY THU.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JJ/KK
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181010
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAL COVERAGE AND UNTIL
NOON TODAY. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF LIGHT MIST/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS SPREADING EASTWARD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
MAY RISE BY MID MORNING...ROAD TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW
FREEZING. WILL MONITER PROGRESS THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
REVISIONS ON WINTER WEATHER WATCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF -FZRA/-FZDZ. FROZEN ROAD SURFACES WILL
MAKE FOR VERY ICY ROADS IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/85H THETA-E ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
UNDER THE UPPER JET THIS MORNING. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FALL EAST TO
PUSH BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY IN THE EAST SO KEEP LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST TODAY.
THE LOCAL WRF...NAM AND GFS HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT LATE
TODAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WINTRY PCPN THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO A
RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY
AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES PLAYED IT CLOSE TO MAV AND WRFARWRNK BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY. DIGGING SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS STRONGER ON THE
NAM/WRF...WILL DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MOVES ACROSS NC MONDAY. STRONGER/WETTER NAM IS THE OUTLIER...SO
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FCST
WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP- WHICH WOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW. I HAVE RAISED POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MON
MORNING TO CHC FOR ALL BU THE LYH AREA EASTWARD IN VA. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW ACCUM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS IS LIKELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUM UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS ENDS...THEN WE CAN
ADDRESS SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY FROM BLUEFIELD AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL ADDRESS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT
LIKE THE RECENT ARCTIC BLAST. TRAJECTORIES LOOK GOOD FOR SOME LAKE
MOISTURE EARLY...BUT THEN ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE COULD BACK
THE FLOW AND END ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY. WITH TIMING
DIFFS IN THE MODELS...HAVE LEFT POPS CHC MONDAY NIGHT IN UPLSOPE
AREAS. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORT WAVE DIGS DEEPER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH STRONG COASTAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY-
PROBLEM IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. RIGHT NOW..MODELS ARE ALL
OVER...BUT ANY OF TH SOULTIONS WOULD NOT BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
AFFECT EVEN THE SERN CWA. WOULD JUST BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND RENEWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. THIS MAY BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD- BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
WARM ADVECTION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLF/KLWB THIS
MORNING AND SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION IN -FZRA AND -SN BETWEEN
06-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN DRY AIR APPEARS CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS AT THIS POINT. THE IFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
MVFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE COLD POOL EXPECTING
LLWS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KBLF WHERE BETTER
MIXING SHOULD PREVAIL. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST AND UPSLOPE -SHSN IN ITS
WAKE. PRECIP APPEARS RATHER LIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND SO ALTHO
KEEPING -SN MENTION AT THE SE WVA SITES...STAYING ABOVE IFR LEVELS
IN THE PREVAILING OUTLOOK ATTM. SOME -RA/-SN COULD SPILL EAST INTO
AT LEAST KROA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ADDED A MENTION THERE
OTRW KEEPING THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AS
NW FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTRW VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ELSW AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROF SWINGS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY. UPPER TROF
FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY
THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/KK
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180853
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT...FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF -FZRA/-FZDZ. FROZEN ROAD SURFACES WILL
MAKE FOR VERY ICY ROADS IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/85H THETA-E ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
UNDER THE UPPER JET THIS MORNING. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FALL EAST TO
PUSH BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY IN THE EAST SO KEEP LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST TODAY.
THE LOCAL WRF...NAM AND GFS HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT LATE
TODAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WINTRY PCPN THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO A
RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY
AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES PLAYED IT CLOSE TO MAV AND WRFARWRNK BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY. DIGGING SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS STRONGER ON THE
NAM/WRF...WILL DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MOVES ACROSS NC MONDAY. STRONGER/WETTER NAM IS THE OUTLIER...SO
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FCST
WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP- WHICH WOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW. I HAVE RAISED POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MON
MORNING TO CHC FOR ALL BU THE LYH AREA EASTWARD IN VA. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW ACCUM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS IS LIKELY...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUM UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS ENDS...THEN WE CAN
ADDRESS SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY FROM BLUEFIELD AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC
MTNS. WILL ADDRESS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT
LIKE THE RECENT ARCTIC BLAST. TRAJECTORIES LOOK GOOD FOR SOME LAKE
MOISTURE EARLY...BUT THEN ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE COULD BACK
THE FLOW AND END ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY. WITH TIMING
DIFFS IN THE MODELS...HAVE LEFT POPS CHC MONDAY NIGHT IN UPLSOPE
AREAS. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORT WAVE DIGS DEEPER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH STRONG COASTAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY-
PROBLEM IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. RIGHT NOW..MODELS ARE ALL
OVER...BUT ANY OF TH SOULTIONS WOULD NOT BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
AFFECT EVEN THE SERN CWA. WOULD JUST BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND RENEWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. THIS MAY BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD- BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
WARM ADVECTION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLF/KLWB THIS
MORNING AND SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION IN -FZRA AND -SN BETWEEN
06-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN DRY AIR APPEARS CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS AT THIS POINT. THE IFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
MVFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE COLD POOL EXPECTING
LLWS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KBLF WHERE BETTER
MIXING SHOULD PREVAIL. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST AND UPSLOPE -SHSN IN ITS
WAKE. PRECIP APPEARS RATHER LIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND SO ALTHO
KEEPING -SN MENTION AT THE SE WVA SITES...STAYING ABOVE IFR LEVELS
IN THE PREVAILING OUTLOOK ATTM. SOME -RA/-SN COULD SPILL EAST INTO
AT LEAST KROA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ADDED A MENTION THERE
OTRW KEEPING THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AS
NW FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTRW VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ELSW AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROF SWINGS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY. UPPER TROF
FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY
THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>013-015.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/KK
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180535
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
MORNING...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENDING ANOTHER UPDATE TO POST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH
OF THE FAR WEST GIVEN ONSET OF -FZRA/-FZDZ IN SPOTS. ALTHO THINK
AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...FROZEN ROAD SURFACES COULD MAKE
FOR VERY ICY ROADS IN SHORT NOTICE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER FROM THE
EARLIER UPDATE UNCHANGED FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
SEEING A FEW -SHSN APPROACHING THE FAR SW ZONES AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES OTRW PRECIP REMAINS SPARSE TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING GIVEN RATHER SHALLOW RH ATTM. AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE/85H THETA-E GETS SQUEEZED UP
AGAIN THE WESTERN SLOPES UNDER THE UPPER JET EXPECT A BAND OF -SN
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DEPICTED WELL BY THE LOCAL WRF
WHICH HAS A BROKEN PRECIP AXIS OVER THE FAR WEST THRU MIDDAY
SUNDAY. SINCE APPEARS MOST COVERAGE WONT TAKE SHAPE UNTIL AFTER
5-06Z...DELAYED ONSET OF -SN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT AMOUNTS
PRETTY LIGHT CONSIDERING ONLY WEAK LIFT/DRY AIR AND BEST SUPPORT
PASSING TO THE NORTH. LOWERING CLOUD CANOPY HAS KEPT TEMPS STEADY
OR EVEN PROMPTED RISES IN SPOTS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AS DECENT SOUTH WIND KEEPS WARM ADVECTION/MIXING
ONGOING. THUS TWEAKED LOWS NEAR CURRENT VALUES WITH READINGS
RISING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTR AND LIFT WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ITS SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PCPN WILL LIKELY BE SPARCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST
AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT
WILL DEVELOP TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL TMRW WILL START OFF AS SNOW IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY MIX WITH...AND IN THE EAST...CHANGE TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTN AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA...ALL THE WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TO THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING TIER COUNTIES OF SW VA AND ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INCREASE. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO DO NOT PLAN TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY ONE OF
THEM AT THIS TIME EXCEPT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREA OF
WV AND NC.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS WILL HAVE ON
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS VARYING ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALINE ITSELF...BUT ALL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND TO ALIGN WELL AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO MY EAST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL START TO TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
WARM ADVECTION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLF/KLWB THIS
MORNING AND SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION IN -FZRA AND -SN BETWEEN
06-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN DRY AIR APPEARS CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS AT THIS POINT.
AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE COLD POOL EXPECTING
LLWS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KBLF WHERE BETTER
MIXING SHOULD PREVAIL. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST AND UPSLOPE -SHSN IN ITS
WAKE. PRECIP APPEARS RATHER LIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND SO ALTHO
KEEPING -SN MENTION AT THE SE WVA SITES...STAYING ABOVE IFR LEVELS
IN THE PREVAILING OUTLOOK ATTM. SOME -RA/-SN COULD SPILL EAST INTO
AT LEAST KROA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ADDED A MENTION THERE
OTRW KEEPING THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AS
NW FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTRW VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ELSW AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROF SWINGS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY. UPPER TROF
FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY
THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>013-015.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/JS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/KK
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180446
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1146 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SENDING ANOTHER UPDATE TO POST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH
OF THE FAR WEST GIVEN ONSET OF -FZRA/-FZDZ IN SPOTS. ALTHO THINK
AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...FROZEN ROAD SURFACES COULD MAKE
FOR VERY ICY ROADS IN SHORT NOTICE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER FROM THE
EARLIER UPDATE UNCHANGED FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
SEEING A FEW -SHSN APPROACHING THE FAR SW ZONES AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES OTRW PRECIP REMAINS SPARSE TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING GIVEN RATHER SHALLOW RH ATTM. AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE/85H THETA-E GETS SQUEEZED UP
AGAIN THE WESTERN SLOPES UNDER THE UPPER JET EXPECT A BAND OF -SN
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DEPICTED WELL BY THE LOCAL WRF
WHICH HAS A BROKEN PRECIP AXIS OVER THE FAR WEST THRU MIDDAY
SUNDAY. SINCE APPEARS MOST COVERAGE WONT TAKE SHAPE UNTIL AFTER
5-06Z...DELAYED ONSET OF -SN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT AMOUNTS
PRETTY LIGHT CONSIDERING ONLY WEAK LIFT/DRY AIR AND BEST SUPPORT
PASSING TO THE NORTH. LOWERING CLOUD CANOPY HAS KEPT TEMPS STEADY
OR EVEN PROMPTED RISES IN SPOTS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AS DECENT SOUTH WIND KEEPS WARM ADVECTION/MIXING
ONGOING. THUS TWEAKED LOWS NEAR CURRENT VALUES WITH READINGS
RISING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTR AND LIFT WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ITS SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PCPN WILL LIKELY BE SPARCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST
AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT
WILL DEVELOP TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL TMRW WILL START OFF AS SNOW IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY MIX WITH...AND IN THE EAST...CHANGE TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTN AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA...ALL THE WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TO THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING TIER COUNTIES OF SW VA AND ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INCREASE. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO DO NOT PLAN TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY ONE OF
THEM AT THIS TIME EXCEPT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREA OF
WV AND NC.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS WILL HAVE ON
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS VARYING ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALINE ITSELF...BUT ALL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND TO ALIGN WELL AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO MY EAST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL START TO TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AT KBLF/KLWB OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION IN -SN BETWEEN
09-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ESPCLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT GIVEN DRY AIR APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AT THIS POINT. AS THE SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE COLD POOL THIS EVENING EXPECTING
LLWS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KBLF WHERE BETTER
MIXING SHOULD PREVAIL. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST AND UPSLOPE -SHSN IN ITS
WAKE. PRECIP APPEARS RATHER LIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND SO ALTHO
KEEPING -SN MENTION AT THE SE WVA SITES...STAYING ABOVE IFR
LEVELS IN THE PREVAILING OUTLOOK ATTM. SOME -RA/-SN COULD SPILL
EAST INTO AT LEAST KROA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ADDED A
MENTION THERE OTRW KEEPING THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AS
NW FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTRW VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ELSW AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROF SWINGS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY. UPPER TROF
FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY
THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>013-015.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/JS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/JS/PC
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180327
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1027 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SENDING A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A BIT OF -FZDZ FAR WEST WHERE WARM
ADVECTION A BIT STRONGER AND OBS SHOWING PRECIP MORE LIQUID NATURE
THAN -SN ATTM. SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT GIVEN DRY AIR BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
SEEING A FEW -SHSN APPROACHING THE FAR SW ZONES AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES OTRW PRECIP REMAINS SPARSE TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING GIVEN RATHER SHALLOW RH ATTM. AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE/85H THETA-E GETS SQUEEZED UP
AGAIN THE WESTERN SLOPES UNDER THE UPPER JET EXPECT A BAND OF -SN
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DEPICTED WELL BY THE LOCAL WRF
WHICH HAS A BROKEN PRECIP AXIS OVER THE FAR WEST THRU MIDDAY
SUNDAY. SINCE APPEARS MOST COVERAGE WONT TAKE SHAPE UNTIL AFTER
5-06Z...DELAYED ONSET OF -SN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT AMOUNTS
PRETTY LIGHT CONSIDERING ONLY WEAK LIFT/DRY AIR AND BEST SUPPORT
PASSING TO THE NORTH. LOWERING CLOUD CANOPY HAS KEPT TEMPS STEADY
OR EVEN PROMPTED RISES IN SPOTS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AS DECENT SOUTH WIND KEEPS WARM ADVECTION/MIXING
ONGOING. THUS TWEAKED LOWS NEAR CURRENT VALUES WITH READINGS
RISING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTR AND LIFT WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ITS SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PCPN WILL LIKELY BE SPARCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST
AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT
WILL DEVELOP TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL TMRW WILL START OFF AS SNOW IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY MIX WITH...AND IN THE EAST...CHANGE TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTN AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA...ALL THE WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TO THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING TIER COUNTIES OF SW VA AND ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INCREASE. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO DO NOT PLAN TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY ONE OF
THEM AT THIS TIME EXCEPT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREA OF
WV AND NC.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS WILL HAVE ON
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS VARYING ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALINE ITSELF...BUT ALL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND TO ALIGN WELL AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO MY EAST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL START TO TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AT KBLF/KLWB OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION IN -SN BETWEEN
09-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ESPCLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT GIVEN DRY AIR APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AT THIS POINT. AS THE SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE COLD POOL THIS EVENING EXPECTING
LLWS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KBLF WHERE BETTER
MIXING SHOULD PREVAIL. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST AND UPSLOPE -SHSN IN ITS
WAKE. PRECIP APPEARS RATHER LIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND SO ALTHO
KEEPING -SN MENTION AT THE SE WVA SITES...STAYING ABOVE IFR
LEVELS IN THE PREVAILING OUTLOOK ATTM. SOME -RA/-SN COULD SPILL
EAST INTO AT LEAST KROA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ADDED A
MENTION THERE OTRW KEEPING THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AS
NW FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTRW VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ELSW AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROF SWINGS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY. UPPER TROF
FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY
THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/JS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/JS/PC
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180140
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
840 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEEING A FEW -SHSN APPROACHING THE FAR SW ZONES AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES OTRW PRECIP REMAINS SPARSE TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING GIVEN RATHER SHALLOW RH ATTM. AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE/85H THETA-E GETS SQUEEZED
UP AGAIN THE WESTERN SLOPES UNDER THE UPPER JET EXPECT A BAND OF
-SN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DEPICTED WELL BY THE LOCAL WRF
WHICH HAS A BROKEN PRECIP AXIS OVER THE FAR WEST THRU MIDDAY
SUNDAY. SINCE APPEARS MOST COVERAGE WONT TAKE SHAPE UNTIL AFTER
5-06Z...DELAYED ONSET OF -SN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT AMOUNTS
PRETTY LIGHT CONSIDERING ONLY WEAK LIFT/DRY AIR AND BEST SUPPORT
PASSING TO THE NORTH. LOWERING CLOUD CANOPY HAS KEPT TEMPS STEADY
OR EVEN PROMPTED RISES IN SPOTS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS DECENT SOUTH WIND KEEPS WARM ADVECTION/MIXING
ONGOING. THUS TWEAKED LOWS NEAR CURRENT VALUES WITH READINGS
RISING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTR AND LIFT WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ITS SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PCPN WILL LIKELY BE SPARCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST
AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT
WILL DEVELOP TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL TMRW WILL START OFF AS SNOW IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY MIX WITH...AND IN THE EAST...CHANGE TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTN AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA...ALL THE WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TO THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING TIER COUNTIES OF SW VA AND ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INCREASE. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO DO NOT PLAN TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY ONE OF
THEM AT THIS TIME EXCEPT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREA OF
WV AND NC.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS WILL HAVE ON
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS VARYING ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALINE ITSELF...BUT ALL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND TO ALIGN WELL AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO MY EAST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL START TO TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AT KBLF/KLWB OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION IN -SN BETWEEN
09-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ESPCLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT GIVEN DRY AIR APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AT THIS POINT. AS THE SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE COLD POOL THIS EVENING EXPECTING
LLWS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KBLF WHERE BETTER
MIXING SHOULD PREVAIL. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST AND UPSLOPE -SHSN IN ITS
WAKE. PRECIP APPEARS RATHER LIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND SO ALTHO
KEEPING -SN MENTION AT THE SE WVA SITES...STAYING ABOVE IFR
LEVELS IN THE PREVAILING OUTLOOK ATTM. SOME -RA/-SN COULD SPILL
EAST INTO AT LEAST KROA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ADDED A
MENTION THERE OTRW KEEPING THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AS
NW FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTRW VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ELSW AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROF SWINGS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY. UPPER TROF
FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY
THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/JS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/JS/PC
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 172311
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
611 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTR AND LIFT WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ITS SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PCPN WILL LIKELY BE SPARCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST
AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT
WILL DEVELOP TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL TMRW WILL START OFF AS SNOW IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY MIX WITH...AND IN THE EAST...CHANGE TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTN AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA...ALL THE WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TO THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING TIER COUNTIES OF SW VA AND ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INCREASE. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO DO NOT PLAN TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY ONE OF
THEM AT THIS TIME EXCEPT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREA OF
WV AND NC.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS WILL HAVE ON
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS VARYING ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALINE ITSELF...BUT ALL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND TO ALIGN WELL AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO MY EAST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL START TO TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
MAY RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AT KBLF/KLWB OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION IN -SN BETWEEN
09-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ESPCLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT GIVEN DRY AIR APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AT THIS POINT. AS THE SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE COLD POOL THIS EVENING EXPECTING
LLWS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KBLF WHERE BETTER
MIXING SHOULD PREVAIL. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF -SN WEST AND UPSLOPE -SHSN IN ITS
WAKE. PRECIP APPEARS RATHER LIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND SO ALTHO
KEEPING -SN MENTION AT THE SE WVA SITES...STAYING ABOVE IFR
LEVELS IN THE PREVAILING OUTLOOK ATTM. SOME -RA/-SN COULD SPILL
EAST INTO AT LEAST KROA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ADDED A
MENTION THERE OTRW KEEPING THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AS
NW FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTRW VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ELSW AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROF SWINGS THRU MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
WHERE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY. UPPER TROF
FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK WITH ALL SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY
THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...JS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/JS/PC
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 172015
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
315 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY...GIVING WAY TO
A WEAK WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MOST RECENT ONE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTR AND LIFT WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ITS SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PCPN WILL LIKELY BE SPARCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST
AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT
WILL DEVELOP TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL TMRW WILL START OFF AS SNOW IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY MIX WITH...AND IN THE EAST...CHANGE TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTN AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA...ALL THE WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TO THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING TIER COUNTIES OF SW VA AND ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INCREASE. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO DO NOT PLAN TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY ONE OF
THEM AT THIS TIME EXCEPT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREA OF
WV AND NC.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS WILL HAVE ON
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS VARYING ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALINE ITSELF...BUT ALL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND TO ALIGN WELL AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO MY EAST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL START TO TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE OP GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED CONSIDERING THE
EROSION OF THE MONSTER +PNA RIDGE...WHICH OPENED THE BLOWTORCH FOR
ALASKA A FEW DAYS AGO. EXPECTING A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW...WITH JET STREAKS STAYING ALONG THE LAKES AND
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED NORTH. THUS...THE NEXT
FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHWS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY FOR SE WEST
VA. TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 50F AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DIGGING S/W. CIGS TO LOWER IN SE WVA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS OR ANY -SN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT KBLF/KLWB. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TODAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT SHIFT INTO THE S TO SW AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS AT BLF BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CIGS/VSBYS AS SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JS/PC
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 171944
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
244 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY...GIVING WAY TO
A WEAK WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MOST RECENT ONE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTR AND LIFT WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ITS SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PCPN WILL LIKELY BE SPARCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST
AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT
WILL DEVELOP TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL TMRW WILL START OFF AS SNOW IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY MIX WITH...AND IN THE EAST...CHANGE TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTN AS SW FLOW AND SCTD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA...ALL THE WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TO THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING TIER COUNTIES OF SW VA AND ALSO INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INCREASE. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO DO NOT PLAN TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY ONE OF
THEM AT THIS TIME EXCEPT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREA OF
WV AND NC.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS WILL HAVE ON
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS VARYING ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALINE ITSELF...BUT ALL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND TO ALIGN WELL AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS TO MY EAST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL START TO TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST STORM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ITS 12Z RUN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION
SO FOLLOWED IT FOR H85 TEMPS AND WEATHER. AS A SHRTWV DUMPS
INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...ENOUGH UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH PART OF WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
FOLLOWED MORE OF AN ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND AFTER...AS THE OP GFS
IS TOO AMPLIFIED AND TOO QUICK TO KICK OUT THE EASTERN TROUGH
LATER NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL AND NOT AS WARM AT H85...SO
SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF OF 12Z MEX GUIDANCE ON MAX T. HELD UP THE
NEXT FRONT FROM THE ECMWF ABOUT 12HRS...ARRIVING FRIDAY OVERNIGHT
IN STEAD OF FRIDAY MORNING. ZONAL STRUCTURE TO THE UPPER FLOW
WOULD CUTOFF THE GOM POSSIBLY MEANING A RATHER DRY PASSAGE. THE
JANUARY THAW SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING NEXT WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH
SOME CHILLY AIR ARRIVES IN SE CANADA...DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH
AMPLITUDE IN THE FLOW TO PUSH IT THIS FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...WOULD NOT
WANT TO GO AS WARM AS THE OP GFS LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE ECMWF
H85 VALUES WILL SEEM LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO WHAT IS IN PLACE NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DIGGING S/W. CIGS TO LOWER IN SE WVA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS OR ANY -SN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT KBLF/KLWB. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TODAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT SHIFT INTO THE S TO SW AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS AT BLF BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CIGS/VSBYS AS SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SE WV
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS MORNING BUT STILL THE COLDEST
TEMPS SINCE FEB. 1996 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE WBCPNSRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JS/PC
CLIMATE...JS
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