000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201535
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1035 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MD
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RESULTING
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONLY SLIGHT (SMALL
CHANCE NORTHEAST ZONES) POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THIS FEATURE GIVEN
OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LACK OF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IS FINE.
FLOW IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST UNDER THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION. ENSUING POST SYSTEM INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL
TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
COLD BOUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO
REDEVELOP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR SHORTWAVE PROJECTIONS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY
OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO LESS THAN 3SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/SCATTERED IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
IN COLDER AIR POST FROPA. EXPECT IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200813
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
313 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MD
MOUNTAINS TODAY. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE RESULTING
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES.
FORECAST IS OF GENERAL PERSISTANCE WITH CHANCE POPS/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY UNDER SLOWLY EXITING TROUGH...BUT WITH REDUCTIONS
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
LEVELS AND DRIER AIR PROJECTED INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTORS IN ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH THE HIGHEST BEING AN
INCH ON THE RIDGES WHERE POPS EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR LIKELY
NUMBERS WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE.
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE UNDER HIGH AMPLITUDE EAST COAST
TROUGH...TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONLY SLIGHT (SMALL
CHANCE NORTHEAST ZONES) POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THIS FEATURE GIVEN
OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LACK OF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IS FINE.
FLOW IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST UNDER THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION. ENSUING POST SYSTEM INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL
TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
COLD BOUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO
REDEVELOP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR SHORTWAVE PROJECTIONS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR FLGT CONDS WITH SC CIGS AND SCT LGT SNOW. SC AND
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
MIXED PCPN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/SCT IFR FLGT CONDS. ALL PCPN
CHANGES OVER TO SN FRIDAY NIGHT IN COLDER AIR POST FROPA. EXPECT
IMPROVING FLGT CONDS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/02
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200801
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MD
MOUNTAINS TODAY. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE RESULTING
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES.
FORECAST IS OF GENERAL PERSISTANCE WITH CHANCE POPS/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY UNDER SLOWLY EXITING TROUGH...BUT WITH REDUCTIONS
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
LEVELS AND DRIER AIR PROJECTED INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTORS IN ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH THE HIGHEST BEING AN
INCH ON THE RIDGES WHERE POPS EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR LIKELY
NUMBERS WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE.
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE UNDER HIGH AMPLITUDE EAST COAST
TROUGH...TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONLY SLIGHT (SMALL
CHANCE NORTHEAST ZONES) POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THIS FEATURE GIVEN
OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LACK OF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IS FINE.
FLOW IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST UNDER THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION. ENSUING POST SYSTEM INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL
TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
COLD BOUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO
REDEVELOP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR SHORTWAVE PROJECTIONS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR FLGT CONDS WITH SC CIGS AND SCT LGT SNOW. SC AND
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
MIXED PCPN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/SCT IFR FLGT CONDS. ALL PCPN
CHANGES OVER TO SN FRIDAY NIGHT IN COLDER AIR POST FROPA. EXPECT
IMPROVING FLGT CONDS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/02
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200603
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MD
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE RESULTING
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES.
LATEST UPDATE ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
LIGHT WORDING AND BARELY MENTIONABLE AMOUNTS. CURRENT SREF/NAM
SOLUTIONS SHOWING BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW IN NW PA AND OVER HIGHEST
RIDGES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR CHANCE NUMBERS ONLY...AFTER
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH REDUCTIONS FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH RELATIVELY LOW
INVERSION LEVELS AND DRIER AIR PROJECTED INTO THE MID LEVELS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE RIDGES WHERE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED
WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY, BUT AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH SHALLOW MIXING LAYER PROGGED.
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW/HIGH AMPLITUDE
EAST COAST TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONLY SLIGHT POPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR THIS FEATURE GIVEN OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LACK OF MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE...ANY SNOW WOULD BE LIGHT.
PERSISTENCE WITH FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IS
PRUDENT.
FLOW IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST UNDER THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A BOUT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. ENSUING POST SYSTEM INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL TURN
THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING VERY COLD FOR THE WEEKEND.
IT APPEARS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALSO COME FROM COLORADO...AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM
BECOMES ZONAL. CURRENT ECMWF MODEL RUN TIMING HAS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MODERATING FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR FLGT CONDS WITH SC CIGS AND SCT LGT SNOW. SC AND
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
MIXED PCPN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/SCT IFR FLGT CONDS. ALL PCPN
CHANGES OVER TO SN FRIDAY NIGHT IN COLDER AIR POST FROPA. EXPECT
IMPROVING FLGT CONDS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200431
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1131 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MD
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE RESULTING
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES.
LATEST UPDATE ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
LIGHT WORDING AND BARELY MENTIONABLE AMOUNTS. CURRENT SREF/NAM
SOLUTIONS SHOWING BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW IN NW PA AND OVER HIGHEST
RIDGES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR CHANCE NUMBERS ONLY...AFTER
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH REDUCTIONS FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH RELATIVELY LOW
INVERSION LEVELS AND DRIER AIR PROJECTED INTO THE MID LEVELS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE RIDGES WHERE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED
WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY, BUT AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH SHALLOW MIXING LAYER PROGGED.
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW/HIGH AMPLITUDE
EAST COAST TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONLY SLIGHT POPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR THIS FEATURE GIVEN OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LACK OF MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE...ANY SNOW WOULD BE LIGHT.
PERSISTANCE WITH FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IS
PRUDENT.
FLOW IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST UNDER THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A BOUT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. ENSUING POST SYSTEM INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL TURN
THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING VERY COLD FOR THE WEEKEND.
IT APPEARS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALSO COME FROM COLORADO...AS THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
BECOMES ZONAL. CURRENT ECMWF MODEL RUN TIMING HAS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MODERATING FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT AREA OF SC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE SOUTHWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE AS AXIS OF UL TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
ENTIRE AREA TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING ACROSS REGION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND NEAR THE RIDGES.
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCE IS SMALL ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL
BE EXPECTED. VFR IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200139 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
839 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE COLD TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MD
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY.
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
SREF/NAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW IN NW PA AND OVER
HIGHEST RIDGES THROUGH TUESDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AS AREA OF SC IS MOVING SOUTHWARD. SNOW
ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/..
.
BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. JUDGING FROM BLEND
OF GFS MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE...EXPECT CONTINUED VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT ALONG WITH HPC THINKING THAT RELIED MORE ON RECENT ECMWF
MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS FOR FORECAST DETAILS THIS PERIOD. SO EXPECT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A BOUT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. ENSUING
POST SYSTEM INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING VERY COLD FOR THE WEEKEND.
IT APPEARS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALSO COME FROM COLORADO...AS THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
BECOMES ZONAL. CURRENT ECMWF MODEL RUN TIMING HAS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MODERATING FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT AREA OF SC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE SOUTHWARD AS AXIS OF UL
TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT ENTIRE AREA TO EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH REDUCTION IN VIS OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT FLURRIES.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING ACROSS REGION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND NEAR THE RIDGES.
A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192056
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
356 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE COLD TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. THEN LOW PRESSURE FROM COLORADO WILL
BRING A BOUT OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN
WV/WESTERN MD MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY.
PLAN TO KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES.
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. JUDGING FROM BLEND
OF GFS MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE...EXPECT CONTINUED VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT ALONG WITH HPC THINKING THAT RELIED MORE ON RECENT ECMWF MODEL
RUN SOLUTIONS FOR FORECAST DETAILS THIS PERIOD. SO EXPECT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A BOUT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. ENSUING POST SYSTEM
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING VERY COLD FOR
THE WEEKEND.
IT APPEARS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALSO COME FROM COLORADO...AS THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
BECOMES ZONAL. CURRENT ECMWF MODEL RUN TIMING HAS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MODERATING FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHERN WV/WESTERN
MD MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING ACROSS REGION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND NEAR THE RIDGES.
A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191618
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1118 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY. SO EXPECT
COLD TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WILL ALLOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT
NOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED...NEARLY 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL...AS RECENT RUC MODEL
RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MAINTAINED INTO MID
WEEK AS SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE TOWARD THE BASE OF EAST
COAST TROUGH. HOWEVER, PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES ARE LIMITED...I.E.
INVERSION IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS IN LEE OF THE
LAKES AND INTO THE RIDGES ARE NOT LIKELY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY, UPPER FLOW SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AND FORECAST POPS ARE IN
DECLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT RECOVERY
TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL OCCUR BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA ON
FRIDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUDGING FROM RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM RECENT
NAM PROFILES...EXPECT SCATTERED MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL TREND INTO TUESDAY IS
FOR SUB VFR COVERAGES TO DECREASE AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ITS INSTABILITY SLOWLY EXITS EAST. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS WITH MOST FREQUENT DIRECTION FROM WEST AND NORTHWEST.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER FLGT CONDS RETURN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190832
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
332 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN POSITION OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA EARLY THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THIS MORNING FOR PRESTON,
TUCKER AND GARRRETT COUNTIES AS NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH
AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD MORE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCH OR LESS, BUT RIDGES MAY SEE ANOTHER
2 OR 3...HENCE THE ADVISORY EXTENSION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MAY
BE EXPECTED TODAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMPLETES A SWEEP OF THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MAINTAINED INTO MID
WEEK AS SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE TOWARD THE BASE OF EAST
COAST TROUGH. HOWEVER, PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES ARE LIMITED...I.E.
INVERSION IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS IN LEE OF THE
LAKES AND INTO THE RIDGES ARE NOT LIKELY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY, UPPER FLOW SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AND FORECAST POPS ARE IN
DECLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT RECOVERY
TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL OCCUR BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA ON
FRIDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR/WDLY SCT MVFR FLGT CONDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SFC
WNDS SW 5 KTS OR LESS. AFTER SUNRISE MVFR CIGS RETURN AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT AND NAM TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE FROM MID MORNING ON MVFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHSN.
ISOLD IFR CONDS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN SHSN. SFC WNDS W 5 TO 10 KTS.
BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 3SM.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER FLGT CONDS RETURN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15/02
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190618
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BEST SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF WEST VIRGINIA
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST. EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY PICKING UP AN ADDITIONAL FLUFFY 1
TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TO
BE LIGHT...WITH 1-2 INCHES NORTH/RIDGES...WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE LOW TEENS WEST AND NORTH AND 20 SOUTH WITH SMALL
RECOVERY MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...FINALLY EXITING
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA ON
FRIDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PLAN
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR/WDLY SCT MVFR FLGT CONDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SFC
WNDS SW 5 KTS OR LESS. AFTER SUNRISE MVFR CIGS RETURN AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT AND NAM TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE FROM MID MORNING ON MVFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHSN.
ISOLD IFR CONDS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN SHSN. SFC WNDS W 5 TO 10 KTS.
BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 3SM.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER FLGT CONDS RETURN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ030-032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190330
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEST SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF WEST VIRGINIA
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST. EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY PICKING UP AN ADDITIONAL FLUFFY 1
TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TO
BE LIGHT...WITH 1-2 INCHES NORTH/RIDGES...WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE LOW TEENS WEST AND NORTH AND 20 SOUTH WITH SMALL
RECOVERY MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...FINALLY EXITING
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA ON
FRIDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PLAN
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN PA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW.
BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 3SM.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ030-032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182309
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
609 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BETTER BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AND ALLOWED HEADLINES ENDING AT 6 PM TO EXPIRE.
REMAINDER OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN TACT AS BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS WILL INGER INTO MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS GRIDS. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCING PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TO BE LIGHT...WITH 1-2 INCHES
NORTH/RIDGES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AN INCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS TNGT...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
UPWARD MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...FINALLY EXITING
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA ON
FRIDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PLAN
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN PA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW.
BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 3SM.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ008-009-
015-016-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ030-
032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ023-
041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181920
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
220 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AS A
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING WESTERN PA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ACTIVITY IS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR FAR WESTERN PA/EASTERN OHIO UNTIL 6 PM...AND
ACROSS THE RIDGE AREAS/NORTH OF I-80 UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TO BE LIGHT...WITH 1-2 INCHES NORTH/RIDGES...WITH
A COATING TO PERHAPS AN INCH FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEENS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TNGT...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT UPWARD MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...FINALLY EXITING
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA ON
FRIDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PLAN
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN PA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW.
BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 3SM.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ041.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ008-009-
015-016-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ030-
032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ013-014-020-021-029-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ023-
041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-022.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181646
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1146 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN POSITION OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA EARLY THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 FOOT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
WITH 4-6 INCH REPORTS WIDESPREAD TO THE PIT METRO AREA. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF PIT...AND 1-3
SOUTH...HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORIES SOUTHWARD TO COVER ALL
OF SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV AS WELL AS GARRETT COUNTY.
ALSO UPGRADED ADVISORIES TO WARNINGS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIDGES/NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING...THUS HAVE EXTENDED ADV/WARN TIL MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IMPULSES RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RECOVERING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP AND VEER FROM THE S-SE TO THE W-SW.
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL MOVE EAST
OF MOST TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ041.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ008-009-
015-016-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ030-
032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ013-014-020-021-029-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ023-
041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-022.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181026
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
526 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN POSITION OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA EARLY THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUED THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION HAS PULLED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVER MOST
OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING AREA...MOST DRAMATIC NUMBERS ARE
INDICATED AT ZZV WHERE 34 DEGREES WAS REPORTED AT 1 AM...UP FROM
16 BELOW ZERO YESTERDAY MORNING.
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
MID/ UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER...BUT WORST OF THE ACCUMULATION HAS ENDED WITH PASSING OF
IMPRESSIVE UPPER SUPPORT. THEME OF ONE TO...AT MOST TWO INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS ON TRACK FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH CONTINUED
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AFTER OVERNIGHT NUMBERS RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 OVER
THE ADVISORY ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL TO NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IMPULSES RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RECOVERING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP AND VEER FROM THE S-SE TO THE W-SW.
BY LATE MORNING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-030.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/33
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180744
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN POSITION OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA EARLY THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUED THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION HAS PULLED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVER MOST
OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING AREA...MOST DRAMATIC NUMBERS ARE
INDICATED AT ZZV WHERE 34 DEGREES WAS REPORTED AT 1 AM...UP FROM
16 BELOW ZERO YESTERDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS MID/ UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR
IS POSSIBLE WITH TRIPLE POINT JUST WEST OF THE AREA...THUS
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO THE PIT AREA.
SITUATION SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH/SUPPORTING UPPER JET SLIDES EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL TO NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IMPULSES RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RECOVERING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP AND VEER FROM THE S-SE TO THE W-SW.
BY LATE MORNING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-030.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/33
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180328
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1028 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW. SOME GOOD WEATHER NEWS IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WONT BE AS FRIGID AS THEY HAVE BEEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR REPORTS HAVE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT...AS PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES COULD RISE 1-3
DEGREES BY DAWN. RECENT SREF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE
SNOW BANDS EXITING BEFORE SUNDAY EVENING. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
USING BLEND OF RECENT RUC AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS IMPULSES RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RECOVERING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND RADAR DATA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN PREFRONTAL SNOW
BANDS. WINDS WILL SWING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT
10-15 KTS...AND THEN INTO WEST AT 10-15 KTS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-016.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171900
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND NOT AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES. COLD AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SNOW WITH A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS ENTERING EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PA...WITH MORE ORGANIZED SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN
AND NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND RESIDING ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND POINTS TO THE NORTH.
THE GREATEST LIFT WILL RESIDE CLOSEST TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHWEST PA. WILL CONTINUE THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE FCST...WITH ACCUMS BELOW ADV CRITERIA FOR OHIO INTO
SOUTHWEST PA. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...THINK THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER MODERATE SNOWS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENOUGH FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACH
TNGT...AND WITH INITIAL SNOWFALL HAVING HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THINK SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MOST
AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS IMPULSES RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RECOVERING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THIS CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-016.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171711
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1211 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND NOT AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES. COLD AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING AND WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR NOW. LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH INITIAL LIGHT SNOW APPROACHING
EASTERN OHIO.
AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER LATER TODAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE PROGGED IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND PROLONGED
ENOUGH THAT AN ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
MODEL QPF IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH PROG FOR MOST ZONES BEING
ONE TO TWO INCHES...AND ONE TO THREE OVER ZONES ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.
LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD READINGS FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN WARM SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FURTHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS TIMED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO LATE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
TO NEAR, OR JUST ABOVE THE 30 DEGREE MARK BEFORE THE FRONT DRIVES
THEM BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, AND IN
ITS WAKE AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS
OHIO. POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE WERE TAPERED TO LIKELY
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, BUT WITH DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE MID LEVELS,
AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DROP IN MID LEVELS TEMPERATURES TO
DEEPEN MIXING, SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT/BELOW ADVISORY
NUMBERS.
SHORTWAVES INTO THE BASE OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS TROF,
AND THE RESULTANT POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MAY BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH LESS AMPLITUDE TO OVERALL
PATTERN, ONLY SMALL POPS NUMBERS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECT LOWEST CIGS/VIS AT KFKL AND KDUJ. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VFR WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
