000
FXUS64 KOUN 201749
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING... PRODUCING ANOTHER
NORTH WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
UPDATE...
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS EAST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO THIN DURING THE
DAY. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER
TREND... NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
AVIATION...
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-15 KT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE EAST
OF KPNC/KOKC/KOUN. MVFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THIS CLOUD
DECK. WITH THE EDGE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z...WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR CONDS COULD OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY EAST OF KOKC/KOUN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES. THE PLAINS STATES REMAIN IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING MOVED QUICKLY FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. IN
ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE AT
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. BY THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME...BUT CONSIDERING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL USHER IN OUR NEXT SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...AS THE WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKY WITH A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE FASTER OPTION...BRINGING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH
NEVER REALLY GETS RID OF THE COLD AIR BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES
ON MONDAY. NEW RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES SOME MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS HINTS AT
THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR LATELY.
TAYLOR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 30 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 59 28 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 61 24 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 24 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 29 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32/25/67
000
FXUS64 KOUN 201707
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1107 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.UPDATE...
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS EAST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO THIN DURING THE
DAY. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER
TREND... NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
AVIATION...
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-15 KT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE EAST
OF KPNC/KOKC/KOUN. MVFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THIS CLOUD
DECK. WITH THE EDGE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z...WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR CONDS COULD OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY EAST OF KOKC/KOUN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES. THE PLAINS STATES REMAIN IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING MOVED QUICKLY FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. IN
ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE AT
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. BY THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME...BUT CONSIDERING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL USHER IN OUR NEXT SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...AS THE WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKY WITH A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE FASTER OPTION...BRINGING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH
NEVER REALLY GETS RID OF THE COLD AIR BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES
ON MONDAY. NEW RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES SOME MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS HINTS AT
THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR LATELY.
TAYLOR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 30 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 59 28 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 61 24 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 24 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 29 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 201149
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-15 KT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE EAST
OF KPNC/KOKC/KOUN. MVFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THIS CLOUD
DECK. WITH THE EDGE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z...WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR CONDS COULD OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY EAST OF KOKC/KOUN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES. THE PLAINS STATES REMAIN IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING MOVED QUICKLY FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. IN
ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE AT
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. BY THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME...BUT CONSIDERING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL USHER IN OUR NEXT SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...AS THE WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKY WITH A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE FASTER OPTION...BRINGING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH
NEVER REALLY GETS RID OF THE COLD AIR BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES
ON MONDAY. NEW RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES SOME MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS HINTS AT
THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR LATELY.
TAYLOR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 30 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 59 28 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 61 24 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 24 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 29 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/03/03
000
FXUS64 KOUN 201039
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
439 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES. THE PLAINS STATES REMAIN IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING MOVED QUICKLY FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. IN
ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE AT
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. BY THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME...BUT CONSIDERING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL USHER IN OUR NEXT SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...AS THE WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKY WITH A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE FASTER OPTION...BRINGING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH
NEVER REALLY GETS RID OF THE COLD AIR BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES
ON MONDAY. NEW RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES SOME MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS HINTS AT
THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR LATELY.
TAYLOR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 30 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 59 28 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 61 24 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 24 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 29 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/03
000
FXUS64 KOUN 200549
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 57 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 33 58 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 60 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 62 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 51 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 50 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
SIX
000
FXUS64 KOUN 200410
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
NOT SURE WHAT TO DO WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF
AT THE SFC OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT WITH
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SPEEDS OF 30-40KT JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER... WE COULD SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN THE
STRONGER WINDS CAME DOWN AND SFC WINDS CRANKED UP IN SOME AREAS
AFTER 06Z. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF THIS HAPPENING ALREADY - G32
MPH AT NEWKIRK MESONET. WE WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS FOR NOW...
GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA... AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED AT PRESENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...
EXPECT BLOWING DUST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF GAG/WWR SITES. 18Z NAM 9H RH PROGS...SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO ENTER PNC AROUND 9Z AND MAYBE OKC/OUN AROUND
AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERN WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NEXT 24HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 57 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 33 58 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 60 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 62 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 51 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 50 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/06
000
FXUS64 KOUN 192341
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
541 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
EXPECT BLOWING DUST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF GAG/WWR SITES. 18Z NAM 9H RH PROGS...SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO ENTER PNC AROUND 9Z AND MAYBE OKC/OUN AROUND
AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERN WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NEXT 24HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 57 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 33 58 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 60 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 62 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 51 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 50 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
000
FXUS64 KOUN 192039
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONT THROUGH 0Z AS WINDS... DRY AIR... AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE COMBINED THIS AFTERNOON TO ELEVATE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO ANOTHER GUSTY
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TUESDAY... BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SHOW UPR RIDGE... CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S.... FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST MIDDLE TO LATE THIS WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE... ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG THE RED
RIVER. HOWEVER... THE MODEL TRENDS ARE TO WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE
FROM RUN TO RUN WITH LESS MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FEATURE SO THE
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP ARE DECREASING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 57 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 33 58 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 60 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 62 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 51 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 50 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
32/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191726
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/...FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPNC/KOKC/KOUN
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE NW AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASE. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
INCREASING AGAIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 20 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST
SPEEDS MIGHT DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE CHANGE
MA;Y NOT BE APPRECIABLE. REGARDLESSS... ANY DECREASE THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TEND TO MITIGATE ITS COOLING
EFFECTS... THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NLY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING... SIMILAR TO THE
SITUATION OBSERVED LATE LAST NIGHT. MEANWHILE... SCU CLOUDS THAT
WERE APPROACHING THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
ERODE... RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
BY 15Z TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AT KPNC THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH SATELLITE TRENDS...LEFT OUT OF 12Z ISSUANCE. WL MONITOR AND
AMEND IF NECESSARY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF STRONGER
WIND. THIS NEXT SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
S/WV TROF ROTATES THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND THEIR IMPACT ON REGIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ONE-QUARTER OF
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. MID-60 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL
KEEP 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE MARGINAL ON TEMPS...BUT WITH WINDS STRONG THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING AIRMASSES WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS COME DOWN BY THAT TIME SO
WE WILL STILL SET WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. ANOTHER BREEZY EVENING
AND NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ON TUESDAY...
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MILD AND VERY
DRY DAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE OUT PERIODS...WARM AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG FRONT...SO FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE A MORE
ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST...WE COULD STILL BE TOO WARM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT NO INDICATIONS OF ANY MAJOR STORM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 34 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 35 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 65 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 28 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 34 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
32/25/01
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191716
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 20 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST
SPEEDS MIGHT DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE CHANGE
MA;Y NOT BE APPRECIABLE. REGARDLESSS... ANY DECREASE THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TEND TO MITIGATE ITS COOLING
EFFECTS... THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NLY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING... SIMILAR TO THE
SITUATION OBSERVED LATE LAST NIGHT. MEANWHILE... SCU CLOUDS THAT
WERE APPROACHING THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
ERODE... RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
BY 15Z TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AT KPNC THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH SATELLITE TRENDS...LEFT OUT OF 12Z ISSUANCE. WL MONITOR AND
AMEND IF NECESSARY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF STRONGER
WIND. THIS NEXT SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
S/WV TROF ROTATES THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND THEIR IMPACT ON REGIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ONE-QUARTER OF
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. MID-60 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL
KEEP 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE MARGINAL ON TEMPS...BUT WITH WINDS STRONG THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING AIRMASSES WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS COME DOWN BY THAT TIME SO
WE WILL STILL SET WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. ANOTHER BREEZY EVENING
AND NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ON TUESDAY...
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MILD AND VERY
DRY DAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE OUT PERIODS...WARM AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG FRONT...SO FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE A MORE
ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST...WE COULD STILL BE TOO WARM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT NO INDICATIONS OF ANY MAJOR STORM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 34 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 35 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 65 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 28 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 34 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
32/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191008
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
408 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND THEIR IMPACT ON REGIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ONE-QUARTER OF
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. MID-60 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL
KEEP 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE MARGINAL ON TEMPS...BUT WITH WINDS STRONG THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING AIRMASSES WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS COME DOWN BY THAT TIME SO
WE WILL STILL SET WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. ANOTHER BREEZY EVENING
AND NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ON TUESDAY...
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MILD AND VERY
DRY DAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE OUT PERIODS...WARM AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG FRONT...SO FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE A MORE
ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST...WE COULD STILL BE TOO WARM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT NO INDICATIONS OF ANY MAJOR STORM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 34 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 35 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 65 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 28 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 34 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
03/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 190453
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... SFC WINDS VEERING/INCREASING TONIGHT AS SFC TROF/FRONT
MOVE S. PLAN TO ADD LLWS AT SITES WHERE OBSERVED/FCST WINDS
AROUND 500 M ARE AOA 45KT AND VEERED RELATIVE TO SFC WINDS. NAM
LOOKS MUCH TOO WEAK WITH WINDS MONDAY. MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAKENING... BUT 40-50KT WINDS PROGGED AT 0.5-1 KM MUCH OF THE
MORNING. SOME OF THIS LIKELY TO MIX DOWN 15-20Z WITH WINDS THEN
BACKING/DECREASING AGAIN BY AROUND 23Z. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TO MOVE
SE WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL VEER/INCREASE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES BY
AROUND 04Z. LOW CLOUDS HEADING S ACROSS E NEB COULD GET INTO
NCENTRAL OK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL OK FOR A WHILE MONDAY
PER HIGHER MODEL RH PROGGED AT LOW LEVELS. WILL KEEP
KPNC/KOKC/KOUN SCT030-040 FOR NOW WITH CIGS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FARTHER E.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH... WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONGER THAN
LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS. AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY EXPERIENCE
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY COOL QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
PROTECTED AREAS. OTHERWISE...BEST COOLING WITH FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHOULD SEE DECENT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADJUST HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER COOL DOWN TONIGHT
AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 58 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 37 61 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 33 65 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 39 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/24/24
000
FXUS64 KOUN 190353 CCA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH... WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONGER THAN
LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS. AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY EXPERIENCE
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY COOL QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
PROTECTED AREAS. OTHERWISE...BEST COOLING WITH FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHOULD SEE DECENT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADJUST HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER COOL DOWN TONIGHT
AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 58 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 37 61 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 33 65 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 39 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 190351
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH... WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONGER THAN
LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS. AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY EXPERIENCE
LITTER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY COOL QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
PROTECTED AREAS. OTHERWISE...BEST COOLING WITH FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHOULD SEE DECENT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADJUST HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER COOL DOWN TONIGHT
AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 58 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 37 61 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 33 65 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 39 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 182342
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS... WINDS BACKING TO MORE W AND DECREASING FOR A WHILE
THIS EVENING BEFORE BROAD SFC TROUGH MOVES S AND WINDS AGAIN
INCREASE AND VEER. SIMILAR EVOLUTION TOWARD END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS YET ANOTHER SFC TROF MOVES S INTO THE AREA. INCREASE IN RH
BELOW 850MB LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPING... BUT CURRENT LACK OF ANY LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR N SUGGESTS COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED. THUS CONTINUED VFR
WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS PREVAILING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PARAMETERS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE REACHED THE LOW
END THRESHOLDS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON... SO WILL
LET THE CURRENT WARNING CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN TOMORROW IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST BY AFTERNOON... SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING... SHOULD SEE THEM INCREASE A LITTLE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MERIDIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE... THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. OF
LATE... WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH AT LEAST GLANCING BLOWS
BY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES BEING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN... MODEL UPPER AIR SOLUTIONS HAVE
CONVERGED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING OUT THE LEAD UPPER WAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... BUT THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED AS THE GFS MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT TOO QUICKLY AS REFERENCED BY HPC.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S... IT
STILL REMAINS STRONG OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. BOTH
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH HELPS
TO SHOVE A FAIRLY COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. THE TIMING OF
THIS SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY BY THE MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLOSE
AS THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF IN THAT IT ALSO NOW
SPREADS THE COLDER AIR FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE ECMWF
INDICATES A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWING DOWN ON HOW QUICKLY THEY
TRY TO ERODE THE COLD AIR ON SATURDAY... SO WE HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHS LOWER... BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH IF THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION
HOLDS UP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 58 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 35 61 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 37 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 30 65 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 32 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 37 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
06/24/24
000
FXUS64 KOUN 182044
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PARAMETERS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE REACHED THE LOW
END THRESHOLDS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON... SO WILL
LET THE CURRENT WARNING CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN TOMORROW IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST BY AFTERNOON... SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING... SHOULD SEE THEM INCREASE A LITTLE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MERIDIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE... THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. OF
LATE... WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH AT LEAST GLANCING BLOWS
BY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES BEING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN... MODEL UPPER AIR SOLUTIONS HAVE
CONVERGED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING OUT THE LEAD UPPER WAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... BUT THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED AS THE GFS MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT TOO QUICKLY AS REFERENCED BY HPC.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S... IT
STILL REMAINS STRONG OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. BOTH
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH HELPS
TO SHOVE A FAIRLY COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. THE TIMING OF
THIS SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY BY THE MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLOSE
AS THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF IN THAT IT ALSO NOW
SPREADS THE COLDER AIR FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE ECMWF
INDICATES A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWING DOWN ON HOW QUICKLY THEY
TRY TO ERODE THE COLD AIR ON SATURDAY... SO WE HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHS LOWER... BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH IF THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION
HOLDS UP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 58 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 35 61 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 37 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 30 65 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 32 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 37 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/32
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181739
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1139 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS...EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT... WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS EARLIER TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT HAD LAUNCHED UPWARD QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE... THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO
FAR... AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO WESTERLY AND DECREASING BY 19/0000Z. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 19/0400Z AND PROGRESS
STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAF SITES BY 19/0800Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEED.
DISCUSSION...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THAT WE WILL
EASILY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES GO...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE TO A WARNING. TOMORROWS CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT WINDS A LITTLE
STRONGER. GIVEN THAT IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT AND FOR A SHORT TIME AT THAT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES...STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST FRONT PROGD TO PASS OVER
REGION NEXT FRIDAY BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. TIMING IS SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR...EVEN THOUGH UPPER PATTERN IS QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS STILL
MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH STORM SYSTEM THAT CRASHES THE
WESTERN U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY. BY KEEPING A MORE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME...THE ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO
AND INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN COMPARED TO ECMWF...WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF ORIENTED FORECAST GIVEN THAT
THE GFS APPEARS TO BREAK WESTERN RIDGE DOWN A BIT FAST AND ECMWF
IS STILL PREFERRED BY HPC. BY KEEPING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF...
WE ARE EXPECTING SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEXT WEEKEND AFTER
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT...AND WE WILL SEE A LARGER AREA HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 34 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 35 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 37 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 31 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 33 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/32/32
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181633
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS EARLIER TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT HAD LAUNCHED UPWARD QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE... THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO
FAR... AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO WESTERLY AND DECREASING BY 19/0000Z. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 19/0400Z AND PROGRESS
STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAF SITES BY 19/0800Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEED.
DISCUSSION...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THAT WE WILL
EASILY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES GO...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE TO A WARNING. TOMORROWS CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT WINDS A LITTLE
STRONGER. GIVEN THAT IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT AND FOR A SHORT TIME AT THAT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES...STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST FRONT PROGD TO PASS OVER
REGION NEXT FRIDAY BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. TIMING IS SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR...EVEN THOUGH UPPER PATTERN IS QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS STILL
MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH STORM SYSTEM THAT CRASHES THE
WESTERN U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY. BY KEEPING A MORE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME...THE ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO
AND INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN COMPARED TO ECMWF...WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF ORIENTED FORECAST GIVEN THAT
THE GFS APPEARS TO BREAK WESTERN RIDGE DOWN A BIT FAST AND ECMWF
IS STILL PREFERRED BY HPC. BY KEEPING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF...
WE ARE EXPECTING SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEXT WEEKEND AFTER
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT...AND WE WILL SEE A LARGER AREA HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 34 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 35 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 37 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 31 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 33 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/32
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181148
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
547 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO WESTERLY AND DECREASING BY 19/0000Z. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 19/0400Z AND PROGRESS
STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAF SITES BY 19/0800Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THAT WE WILL
EASILY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES GO...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE TO A WARNING. TOMORROWS CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT WINDS A LITTLE
STRONGER. GIVEN THAT IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT AND FOR A SHORT TIME AT THAT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES...STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST FRONT PROGD TO PASS OVER
REGION NEXT FRIDAY BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. TIMING IS SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR...EVEN THOUGH UPPER PATTERN IS QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS STILL
MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH STORM SYSTEM THAT CRASHES THE
WESTERN U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY. BY KEEPING A MORE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME...THE ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO
AND INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN COMPARED TO ECMWF...WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF ORIENTED FORECAST GIVEN THAT
THE GFS APPEARS TO BREAK WESTERN RIDGE DOWN A BIT FAST AND ECMWF
IS STILL PREFERRED BY HPC. BY KEEPING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF...
WE ARE EXPECTING SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEXT WEEKEND AFTER
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT...AND WE WILL SEE A LARGER AREA HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 35 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 35 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 38 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 31 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 33 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
03/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181014
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THAT WE WILL
EASILY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES GO...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE TO A WARNING. TOMORROWS CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT WINDS A LITTLE
STRONGER. GIVEN THAT IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT AND FOR A SHORT TIME AT THAT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES...STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST FRONT PROGD TO PASS OVER
REGION NEXT FRIDAY BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. TIMING IS SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR...EVEN THOUGH UPPER PATTERN IS QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS STILL
MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH STORM SYSTEM THAT CRASHES THE
WESTERN U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY. BY KEEPING A MORE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME...THE ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO
AND INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN COMPARED TO ECMWF...WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF ORIENTED FORECAST GIVEN THAT
THE GFS APPEARS TO BREAK WESTERN RIDGE DOWN A BIT FAST AND ECMWF
IS STILL PREFERRED BY HPC. BY KEEPING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF...
WE ARE EXPECTING SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEXT WEEKEND AFTER
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT...AND WE WILL SEE A LARGER AREA HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 35 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 35 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 38 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 31 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 33 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
03/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 180447
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... STRONGER AND GUSTY NW/NNW SFC WINDS DURING DAY SUNDAY
AS MIXING TAKES PLACE. WINDS LIKELY TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AGAIN
AROUND SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT WILL
DROP INTO OK AFTER 00Z TO BEGIN TURNING/INCREASING WINDS ACROSS N
OK BY 06Z. AIR TO REMAIN VERY DRY UP TO AT LEAST 500 MB SO CLOUDS
LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL CIRRUS... WHICH MAY THICKEN AND LOWER SOME
LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING PER HIGH-LEVEL MODEL RH PROGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
UPDATE...
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY MORE PROTECTED AREAS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 59 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 26 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 24 51 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 32 60 35 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-
021-022-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
06/24/24
000
FXUS64 KOUN 180342
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY MORE PROTECTED AREAS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 59 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 26 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 24 51 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 32 60 35 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-
021-022-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
SIX
000
FXUS64 KOUN 172316
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
516 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AT SUNSET AND BACK TO MORE W/NW...
THEN VEER/INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING EARLY SUNDAY. VFR WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA BEGINNING TO BE MET ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. RELATIVELY MILD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS... AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AS IT MOVES DOWNSLOPE INTO
THE AREA... HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT... WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THEY DECOUPLE... THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE COULD AGAIN SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY BEING
REACHED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WHILE COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW CRITERIA. WITH THE CURED VEGETATION AND SOIL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DROP IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
RECENT RAINFALL... WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WEST
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE... MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
COOLER AIR BACKDOORING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
DIFFERENCES BY MID TO LATE WEEK OCCUR IN THE MODELS AS THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS INDICATES A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE
INDICATION OF THIS FEATURE... ALTHOUGH BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA AROUND THIS TIME WITH CANADIAN AIR EVENTUALLY
SPREADING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR
FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BACK OUT OF THE AREA FASTER OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY... RESULTING IN LIGHT QPF. WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS COLDER... THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR A WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 59 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 31 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 33 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 25 51 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 60 35 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ014>016-
021-022-033>037.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-
021-022-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
06/32/24
000
FXUS64 KOUN 172058
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
258 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA BEGINNING TO BE MET ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. RELATIVELY MILD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS... AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AS IT MOVES DOWNSLOPE INTO
THE AREA... HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT... WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THEY DECOUPLE... THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE COULD AGAIN SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY BEING
REACHED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WHILE COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW CRITERIA. WITH THE CURED VEGETATION AND SOIL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DROP IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
RECENT RAINFALL... WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WEST
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE... MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
COOLER AIR BACKDOORING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
DIFFERENCES BY MID TO LATE WEEK OCCUR IN THE MODELS AS THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS INDICATES A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE
INDICATION OF THIS FEATURE... ALTHOUGH BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA AROUND THIS TIME WITH CANADIAN AIR EVENTUALLY
SPREADING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR
FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BACK OUT OF THE AREA FASTER OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY... RESULTING IN LIGHT QPF. WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS COLDER... THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR A WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 59 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 31 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 33 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 25 51 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 60 35 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ014>016-
021-022-033>037.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-
021>023-033>039-044-045.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/32
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