000
FXUS64 KMOB 201024
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND A DEEP DOME OF COLD AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AN OPEN RADIATIVE
CHANNEL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR A QUARTER INCH...AND
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRIME FOR A COLD NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...THE LOCAL HARD FREEZE CRITERIA OF LESS THAN 26F FOR 5 OR
MORE HOURS WILL BE MET OVER MOST OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT WILL
NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE HARD FREEZE
WARNING. THE DURATION WILL NOT BE MET FOR PERRY...STONE AND GEORGE
COUNTIES BUT WILL NEED TO ADD COASTAL SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES AS CRITERIA WILL BE MET IN THESE TWO. /29
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...HIGH LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE
SLIPS EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND SETS UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS LESS THAN A
HALF INCH...RAINFALL NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPSTREAM...GULF MOISTURE MODIFIES OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE SINKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION ON FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST ZONES
COULD SEE BETTER GRADIENT OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT... A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
BROAD UPPER TROF INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWS FRONTAL
ZONE TO SINK SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SOUTHWARD MOTION INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE
DAY. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...AND SIMILAR CHANCES...BUT FOR RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS QUICKLY...ALLOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY. WILL BE GETTING BACK
INTO A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (SURFACE AND ALOFT) BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE LOW DEGREE OF INSTABILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THUNDER...CALLING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...NEXT COOLING TREND WILL BE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS. /10
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. /29
&&
.MARINE...THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY SUBSIDING SINCE
3Z AND THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS BY NOON THEN WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY
DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20+ KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY THEN VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE MARINE
AREA. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS (UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S)
INTO THE REGION TODAY...DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S MITIGATE
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. WE ARE WITHIN CRITICAL LEVELS THOUGH (<35 %)
OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
THERE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWEST HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM 27 TO 32%
ALONG WITH HIGH DISPERSION. LATEST GRIDDED HUMIDITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MEETING CRITERIA FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 47 24 51 31 / 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 49 26 49 33 / 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 49 30 48 34 / 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 44 19 50 23 / 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 45 21 50 26 / 00 00 00 00
CAMDEN 43 20 50 26 / 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...
UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...AND WAYNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 200403 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A VERY COLD
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 AM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
TUESDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
ZONES (EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). /22
.MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS CONTINUE
LATE THIS EVENING. SOME OFFSHORE BUOYS EVEN REPORTING OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. SEA HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO BUILT AS HIGH
AS 12 FEET AT 42039...SO BUMPED UP HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET
WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES...AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET BETWEEN 20 AND 60
NAUTICAL MILES FOR TONIGHT. MOBILE BAY SCA WAS ALSO EXTENDED UNTIL 3
AM. /22
.AVIATION UPDATE (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ALL THE
TAF`S FORECAST PERIODS. /22
&&
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY AND WILL BE MOVING
OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR ZONES TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
WIND CHILL WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THIS IT APPEARS
THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S OVER MOST
INTERIOR ZONES...WITH MID/UPPER 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ANOTHER HARD FREEZE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A HARD
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR AS TO THE DURATION OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 25
DEGREES. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP...THUS BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
LONG TERM THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS EAST OF THE FCST
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING POSITIONED FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...IT APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE RECOVERED
BY THEN FOR THE FRONT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
WILL BRING STRONG WEST WINDS INCREASING WITH DISTANCE OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANT WAVES...HIGHEST 33 PERCENT...
TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE PER BRETSCHNEIDER NOMOGRAM. INDIVIDUAL
WAVES CAN BE UP TO TWICE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. 77/BD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BRING HIGH
DISPERSION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF...AND SPREAD OF...FIRE. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGH DISPERSION AND LOW
HUMIDITY. 12/DS
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...
UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.
FL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
WAYNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 192242 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY AND WILL BE MOVING
OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR ZONES TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
WIND CHILL WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THIS IT APPEARS
THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S OVER MOST
INTERIOR ZONES...WITH MID/UPPER 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ANOTHER HARD FREEZE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A HARD
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR AS TO THE DURATION OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 25
DEGREES. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP...THUS BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
LONG TERM THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS EAST OF THE FCST
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING POSITIONED FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...IT APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE RECOVERED
BY THEN FOR THE FRONT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...SHOW CLEARING IN TAFS WITH INCREASING
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. PRETTY MUCH VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
77/BD
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
WILL BRING STRONG WEST WINDS INCREASING WITH DISTANCE OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANT WAVES...HIGHEST 33 PERCENT...
TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE PER BRETSCHNEIDER NOMOGRAM. INDIVIDUAL
WAVES CAN BE UP TO TWICE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. 77/BD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BRING HIGH
DISPERSION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF...AND SPREAD OF...FIRE. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGH DISPERSION AND LOW
HUMIDITY. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 31 50 24 51 / 05 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 34 48 27 52 / 05 00 05 00
DESTIN 36 50 31 50 / 05 00 05 00
EVERGREEN 29 45 22 51 / 05 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 29 46 22 53 / 00 05 00 00
CAMDEN 29 43 22 51 / 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 192207
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY AND WILL BE MOVING
OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOO
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR ZONES TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
WIND CHILL WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY THORUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THIS IT APPEARS
THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S OVER MOST
INTERIOR ZONES...WITH MID/UPPER 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ANOTHER HARD FREEZE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A HARD
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR AS TO THE DURATION OF TEMPERTURES BELOW 25 DEGREES.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...THUS
BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
LONG TERM THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS EAST OF THE FCST
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING POSITIONED FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...IT APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE RECOVERED
BY THEN FOR THE FRONT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...SHOW CLEARING IN TAFS WITH INCREASING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND. PRETTY MUCH VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
WILL BRING STRONG WEST WINDS INCREASING WITH DISTANCE OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANT WAVES...HIGHEST 33 PERCENT...
TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE PER BRETSCHNEIDER NOMOGRAM. INDIVIDUAL
WAVES CAN BE UP TO TWICE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. 77/BD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BRING HIGH DISPERSION
THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF...AND SPREAD OF...FIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGH DISPERSION AND LOW HUMIDITY. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 31 50 24 51 / 05 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 34 48 27 52 / 05 00 05 00
DESTIN 36 50 31 50 / 05 00 05 00
EVERGREEN 29 45 22 51 / 05 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 29 46 22 53 / 00 05 00 00
CAMDEN 29 43 22 51 / 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 192002 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
AVIATION UPDATE...18Z ISSUANCE...SHOW SOME CLEARING CLEARING IN TAFS
WITH INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND...PRETTY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.
CONTINUED VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT ALL AREAS AND TERMINALS. 77/BD
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A COLD FRONT SEEN IN THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. AFTER
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND THIRTY OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER TO MID THIRTIES NEAR THE COAST. /29
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...A PIECE OF A STRONG...LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY. EXPECT A
COOL AND DRY DAY WITH TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES HARD PRESSED TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES FAVORS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES FOR LOWS
TO DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM 26 TO 31 ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT NORTH FACING
SHORES TO SEE TEMPERATURES COMING IN AROUND 35 WITH THE LIGHT NORTH
WIND TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE WATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING
POSITIONED FROM NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
RESULTS IN A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE
RECOVERED BY THEN FOR THE FRONT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN.
/10
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ABATES
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. /29
&&
.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS...STRONGER WELL
OFFSHORE...INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SUBSIDES GRADUALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MARINE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...THEN JUST FOR THE 20-60 NM PORTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS FIRST WINDS THEN SEAS
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST
FORECASTS OF GRIDDED HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT (CRITICAL) ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FOUR HOUR DURATION FOR UPGRADING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. FOR TUESDAY...THE DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS. THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITY SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 61 31 47 24 / 10 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 62 34 48 26 / 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 64 36 49 31 / 10 05 00 00
EVERGREEN 59 31 44 22 / 10 05 00 00
WAYNESBORO 54 27 44 22 / 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 56 30 43 23 / 10 05 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 190958
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A COLD FRONT SEEN IN THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. AFTER
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND THIRTY OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER TO MID THIRTIES NEAR THE COAST. /29
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...A PIECE OF A STRONG...LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY. EXPECT A
COOL AND DRY DAY WITH TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES HARD PRESSED TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES FAVORS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES FOR LOWS TO DIP
BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
26 TO 31 ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT NORTH FACING SHORES TO SEE
TEMPERATURES COMING IN AROUND 35 WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WIND TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE WATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING POSITIONED FROM NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN A MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND...IT APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE RECOVERED BY THEN FOR
THE FRONT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. /10
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ABATES
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. /29
&&
.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS...STRONGER WELL
OFFSHORE...INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SUBSIDES GRADUALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MARINE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...THEN JUST FOR THE 20-60 NM PORTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS FIRST WINDS THEN SEAS
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST
FORECASTS OF GRIDDED HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT (CRITICAL) ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FOUR HOUR DURATION FOR UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR
TUESDAY...THE DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS. THE DURATION OF LOW HUMIDITY
SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 61 31 47 24 / 10 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 62 34 48 26 / 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 64 36 49 31 / 10 05 00 00
EVERGREEN 59 31 44 22 / 10 05 00 00
WAYNESBORO 54 27 44 22 / 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 56 30 43 23 / 10 05 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 190526
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...(06Z ISSUANCE)TODAY`S FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE SETTLE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...BUT A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FROPA.
16
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 182331
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)TODAY`S FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
TO THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS FROPA.
16
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 182200
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...AFTER A BRIEF MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGES...BUT A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO COOL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S NOW ADVERTISED OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIN TEMPS THIS LOW...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME LOWER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MAX TEMPS MONDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH MAX TEMPS COOLING TO THE MID
40S AND LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. WILL GENERALLY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF BKN CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE 1290M
1000-850 MB THICKNESS CONTOUR GOES SOUTH OF THE COAST IN BOTH MODELS
WITH A 1275M CONTOUR GRAZING OUR INLAND COUNTIES. THE GFS IS A BIT
COLDER AND HAS BEEN VERIFYING COLDER THIS SEASON WITH THESE TYPES OF
OUTBREAKS. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST LIFTING OUT AND A FLATTENING/MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA AS A NEW TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
OUT WEST OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE
A BIT MORE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WE DO NOTE THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF WAS IN A LITTLER CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SO WE
KEPT THE GFS FORECAST GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT BRINGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT FRONT SHOWS
SIGNS OF HANGING UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (18Z/00Z ISSUANCES)...CLEARING IN TAFS WITH INCREASING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND. PRETTY MUCH VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING WIND AND
SEAS THIS EVENING. HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. SERIES OF REINFORCING TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS UP
SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING EARLIEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CROSS CHECKED GWW WITH BRETSCHNEIDER THEORY FOR
WAVE HEIGHT...AND SAW MODELS MATCHED WELL. HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING DECREASING WINDS
AND SEAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. 77/BD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A BRIEF MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BRING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES...BUT A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DISPERSION VALUES
(ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES) WILL BE ABOVE 75 ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF LATER DATA
INDICATES THAT RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER THAN 35 PERCENT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 42 61 32 52 / 05 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 45 64 36 51 / 05 05 05 05
DESTIN 47 62 37 50 / 10 05 10 05
EVERGREEN 35 56 32 44 / 05 10 05 05
WAYNESBORO 38 54 30 44 / 05 10 05 05
CAMDEN 37 52 31 43 / 05 10 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 182052 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
AVIATION UPDATE...18Z ISSUANCE...SHOW CLEARING IN TAFS WITH
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. PRETTY MUCH VFR THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT.
***********PREVIOUS**********
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HAVE BEEN OBSERVING THE
FORMATION/INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF RAIN
SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST CLIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...WE FEEL CONFIDENT MOST OF OUR VERIFYING
STATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN (>=.01") TODAY. LATEST FORECAST
GRIDDED QPF GENERALLY .10-.20" ON AVERAGE GIVEN THE FAST SPEED OF
MOTION AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
PASS THROUGH THE GULF COAST ABOUT MIDDAY. GIVEN WHAT WE
OBSERVE...HAVE MADE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION GOING ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE MOS. WHAT
LITTLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY THERE IS...LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE. OUT OF CONSIDERATION FOR THIS...WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THERE.
WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO RAIN FORECAST TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 40S SOUTHERN ZONES AND COAST. /10
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...GIANT VORTEX RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BIG ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY LOOKS TO BE LIFTING OUT GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT NOT BEFORE IT GETS ITS LAST LICKS IN WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY
NIGHT. FIRST OFF...THE AIRMASS BEHIND TODAY`S FRONT WON`T BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AS MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
PASSING WELL NORTH AND NOT PUSHING THE REALLY COLD AIR THIS FAR
SOUTH. WE KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE FOR
MONDAY WITH A COOL-ISH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DRIVING ANOTHER COLD SHOT SOUTHWARD
AND OFF THE GULF COAST. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE 1290M 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS CONTOUR GOES SOUTH OF THE COAST IN BOTH MODELS WITH A
1275M CONTOUR GRAZING OUR INLAND COUNTIES. THE GFS IS A BIT COLDER
AND HAS BEEN VERIFYING COLDER THIS SEASON WITH THESE TYPES OF
OUTBREAKS. FOR THIS NEXT EVENT...WE ARE GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE LATEST GFSMOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THAT OUR
INLAND AREAS ARE STILL SQUARELY IN THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. AS OUR OLD FRIEND YOGI IS
FOND OF SAYING...ITS LIKE DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN (WELL...MAYBE NOT
EXACTLY THE SAME). THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST LIFTING OUT AND A
FLATTENING/MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA AS A NEW TROUGH
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OUT WEST OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF START TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT WE DO NOTE THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WAS IN A LITTLER CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SO WE KEPT THE GFS FORECAST GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THAT FRONT SHOWS SIGNS OF HANGING UP JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. AND SPEAKING OF YOGI...ONLY 77 DAYS UNTIL THE START OF
BASEBALL SEASON. /05
&&
.MARINE...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE
MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS WILL TREND HIGHER
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS
IT HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE WITH A MODERATE SEA PERSISTING. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
TRENDING LOWER BY MID WEEK. RETURN FLOW STARTS OFF THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. /10
&&
.AVIATION...WILL HAVE CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH 18Z WITH
VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 6 STATUTE MILES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THOSE
AREAS THAT SEE MODERATE RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY SEE A
REDUCTION TO 3 TO 5 STATUTE MILES BRIEFLY. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00 UTC MONDAY. /10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE COLD/DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER TRANSPORT FLOW OFF THE GULFMEX HAS
BROUGHT RH LEVELS UP QUITE A BIT PAST SEVERAL HOURS. PATCHES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY WITH QPF
VALUES ONE TENTH TO JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST SPOTS.
WE MAY SEE THE RAIN ACTIVITY BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT INSTABILITY
LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT BEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER (ALTHOUGH NOT CRITICALLY DRY)
AIRMASS MOVING BACK IN UNDER A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. WE EXPECT THE RH LEVELS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS...WITH THE
NEXT SHOT AT SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR COMING IN MID WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONGER/DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT (RH
LEVELS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20-LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE
WED). OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION. /05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 65 42 59 35 / 70 05 05 10
PENSACOLA 66 44 61 37 / 70 05 05 10
DESTIN 64 45 60 38 / 70 05 05 10
EVERGREEN 60 35 54 32 / 70 05 05 10
WAYNESBORO 63 38 54 31 / 40 05 05 05
CAMDEN 60 36 51 28 / 60 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND MOBILE BAY.
&&
$$
10/MANISCALCO
05/GARMON
000
FXUS64 KMOB 181056
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HAVE BEEN OBSERVING THE
FORMATION/INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF RAIN
SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST CLIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...WE FEEL CONFIDENT MOST OF OUR VERIFYING
STATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN (>=.01") TODAY. LATEST FORECAST
GRIDDED QPF GENERALLY .10-.20" ON AVERAGE GIVEN THE FAST SPEED OF
MOTION AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
PASS THROUGH THE GULF COAST ABOUT MIDDAY. GIVEN WHAT WE
OBSERVE...HAVE MADE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION GOING ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE MOS. WHAT
LITTLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY THERE IS...LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE. OUT OF CONSIDERATION FOR THIS...WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THERE.
WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO RAIN FORECAST TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 40S SOUTHERN ZONES AND COAST. /10
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...GIANT VORTEX RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BIG ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY LOOKS TO BE LIFTING OUT GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT NOT BEFORE IT GETS ITS LAST LICKS IN WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY
NIGHT. FIRST OFF...THE AIRMASS BEHIND TODAY`S FRONT WON`T BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AS MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
PASSING WELL NORTH AND NOT PUSHING THE REALLY COLD AIR THIS FAR
SOUTH. WE KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE FOR
MONDAY WITH A COOL-ISH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DRIVING ANOTHER COLD SHOT SOUTHWARD
AND OFF THE GULF COAST. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE 1290M 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS CONTOUR GOES SOUTH OF THE COAST IN BOTH MODELS WITH A
1275M CONTOUR GRAZING OUR INLAND COUNTIES. THE GFS IS A BIT COLDER
AND HAS BEEN VERIFYING COLDER THIS SEASON WITH THESE TYPES OF
OUTBREAKS. FOR THIS NEXT EVENT...WE ARE GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE LATEST GFSMOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THAT OUR
INLAND AREAS ARE STILL SQUARELY IN THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. AS OUR OLD FRIEND YOGI IS
FOND OF SAYING...ITS LIKE DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN (WELL...MAYBE NOT
EXACTLY THE SAME). THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST LIFTING OUT AND A
FLATTENING/MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA AS A NEW TROUGH
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OUT WEST OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF START TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT WE DO NOTE THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WAS IN A LITTLER CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SO WE KEPT THE GFS FORECAST GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THAT FRONT SHOWS SIGNS OF HANGING UP JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. AND SPEAKING OF YOGI...ONLY 77 DAYS UNTIL THE START OF
BASEBALL SEASON. /05
&&
.MARINE...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE
MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS WILL TREND HIGHER
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS
IT HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE WITH A MODERATE SEA PERSISTING. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
TRENDING LOWER BY MID WEEK. RETURN FLOW STARTS OFF THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. /10
&&
.AVIATION...WILL HAVE CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH 18Z WITH
VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 6 STATUTE MILES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THOSE
AREAS THAT SEE MODERATE RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY WILL LIKELY SEE A
REDUCTION TO 3 TO 5 STATUTE MILES BRIEFLY. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00 UTC MONDAY. /10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE COLD/DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER TRANSPORT FLOW OFF THE GULFMEX HAS
BROUGHT RH LEVELS UP QUITE A BIT PAST SEVERAL HOURS. PATCHES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY WITH QPF
VALUES ONE TENTH TO JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST SPOTS.
WE MAY SEE THE RAIN ACTIVITY BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT INSTABILITY
LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT BEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER (ALTHOUGH NOT CRITICALLY DRY)
AIRMASS MOVING BACK IN UNDER A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. WE EXPECT THE RH LEVELS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS...WITH THE
NEXT SHOT AT SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR COMING IN MID WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONGER/DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT (RH
LEVELS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20-LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE
WED). OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION. /05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 65 42 59 35 / 70 05 05 10
PENSACOLA 66 44 61 37 / 70 05 05 10
DESTIN 64 45 60 38 / 70 05 05 10
EVERGREEN 60 35 54 32 / 70 05 05 10
WAYNESBORO 63 38 54 31 / 40 05 05 05
CAMDEN 60 36 51 28 / 60 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND MOBILE BAY.
&&
$$
10/MANISCALCO
05/GARMON
000
FXUS64 KMOB 180515
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...(06Z ISSUANCE)SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INCREASING LOWER CIGS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. SHRA SUNDAY MORN CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER THAT..WITH VFR CONDITIONS
INTO MONDAY.
16
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...MONROE...AND WILCOX.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 172321
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN WILL BRING
INCREASING LOWER CIGS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
SHRA SUNDAY MORN CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER THAT..WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY.
16
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...MONROE...AND WILCOX.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 172206
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SHOULD BEGIN MODEST WARM
UP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UPPER 30S
OVER INTERIOR ZONES. THESE MILDER TEMPS ARE DUE TO AN INCREASED
RETURN FLOW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECTS
TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING A INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS WELL...PRIMARILY
ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF FROPA...BUT DID INCREASE POPS OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCES
FOR PCPN COMES TOMORROW WHEN WE ARE LOOKING AT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A NARROW WINDOW WHERE
MINOR AMOUNTS OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY WORK IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE STILL ACKNOWLEDGING THE LAPSE
RATES LOOK TO BE VERY WEAK. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...SO NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED.
12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED
RANGE...REMAINING DRY AND COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (21Z UPDATE)...STAYED WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CEILING
TIMING AS BEFORE. CONSIDERED LATEST MOS GUIDANCE ALSO...BUT AREA
WIDE IT SHOULD BE VFR OR MVFR. RAIN COULD AFFECT WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TERMINALS. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
AND SEAS WILL BUILD EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. WAVE
MODEL DATA GIVE A DETAILED FORECAST THAT SEEMED TO ALLOW FOR WAVE
REFLECTION AND OTHER PROCESSES NEAR CURVING COASTLINES...BUT APPEARED
TOO LOW...ONLY 6 FEET...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY WHEN OUT
OF THE SOUTH. WE USED BRETSCHNEIDER THEORY FOR WAVE HEIGHT...AS
MODELS A HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY EARLY MONDAY. 77/BD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RISE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 47 65 40 57 / 30 70 10 10
PENSACOLA 45 66 42 57 / 20 70 20 10
DESTIN 47 63 43 55 / 20 70 20 10
EVERGREEN 41 59 33 51 / 30 70 10 10
WAYNESBORO 39 55 32 50 / 50 60 05 10
CAMDEN 39 54 36 49 / 50 60 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...MONROE...AND WILCOX.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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