000
FXUS62 KMLB 201558 AAA
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FL...
NO SIG CHANGES TO FCST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURING ACROSS THE
AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME GULF STRATOCU WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO WILL KEEP IT PARTLY SUNNY THERE. WILL BE
ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. MAY EXPAND
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE BUT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF ST LUCIE AND MARTIN SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
TODAY-TONIGHT (PREVIOUS)...COLD ADVECTION! COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST HIGH TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE. DAYTIME READINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW STRATOCU MAY PUSH INLAND
FROM THE GULF BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MODELS PROG 925 MB WINDS AROUND 25
KNOTS SO WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES.
850 MB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
12Z WED. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED AS 925 MB WINDS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE THREAT OF AN ADVECTIVE
FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE
PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD
NORTHWARD...EXCEPT WENT WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING IN LAKE AND
INTERIOR VOLUSIA WHERE MIN TEMPS OF 25-28 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
EVEN IN THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PLAN TO MENTION LOW
TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES IN COLDER LOCATIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL WITH VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT...FOR BOTH THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE LEGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FCST
SO MAY NEED TO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING SOUTHWARD. STRONG AND GUSTY
W/NW WINDS MAKE THIS A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY EVEN WHERE NO RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SEMINOLE.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 200849
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
349 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...BLAST OF COLD AIR TO AFFECT ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...
...COLDEST WEATHER AHEAD FOR SOME AREAS SINCE 2003...
CURRENTLY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
STRONG WIND FIELDS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A
WEAKENING BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS ABOUT TO EXIT SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION! COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST HIGH TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE. DAYTIME READINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW STRATOCU MAY PUSH INLAND FROM
THE GULF BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MODELS PROG 925 MB WINDS AROUND 25
KNOTS SO WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES.
850 MB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
12Z WED. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED AS 925 MB WINDS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE THREAT OF AN ADVECTIVE
FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE
PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD
NORTHWARD...EXCEPT WENT WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING IN LAKE AND
INTERIOR VOLUSIA WHERE MIN TEMPS OF 25-28 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
EVEN IN THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PLAN TO MENTION LOW
TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES IN COLDER LOCATIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL WITH VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH.
WED-THU...COLD HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WED
WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE PENINSULA BY THU MORNING. OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FORECAST BOTH WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT WITH
CENTER OF HIGH EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST OVER A WIDE AREA...ESP
WED NIGHT. OVERALL TEMPS FORECAST OT REMAIN IN THE 50S AREA WIDE
ON WED AND RECOVER TO THE 60S ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A
WARMING TREND.
FRI-MON...RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA FRI FORECAST TO
FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE TN/MS VALLEYS.
LIGHT WINDS ON FRI WILL BECOME SLY ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN AHD OF APCHG
SYSTEM WL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST FOR NOW WITH COLD
FRONT SHOWN MAKING ONLY LIMITED PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ASCD WITH FRONT WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS
ALREADY VERIFIED WITH 41009 SHOWING SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER 35
KNOTS AND A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
EXPIRATION TIME THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT...FOR BOTH
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS.
WED-SAT...SEAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MARINE AREA. HEADLINES LIKELY
TO BE DISCONTINUED ON WED AND IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY FOR MIN RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW
HOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER.
SOME AREAS FURTHER SOUTH MAY ALSO HAVE RH VALUES JUST BELOW 35
PERCENT AND WINDS OVER 15 MPH...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REFINE
IF NECESSARY.
WED-SAT...A LONG PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK HAS PROMPTED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR WED AND THURSDAY
DUE TO AFTERNOON CRITICALLY LOW RH DURATION EXPECTED. LOW
AFTERNOON RH`S WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY INLAND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 55 28 51 26 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 55 30 53 28 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 58 30 55 30 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 61 32 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SEMINOLE.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 200245
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
...ELEVATED FIRE SENSITIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS N FL AND THE
EASTERN GULF AT PRESENT. AVAILABLE EVENING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST
MODEL DATA INDICATE WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE IMPRESSIVE...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING OVER LAND. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
REDUCED TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AS IT REACHES
INTO EC FL...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT AS IT NEARS THE CWA.
SURFACE WINDS OVER LAND AREAS OF EC FL HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED TO
AOB 10KT THIS EVENING BUT AS FRONT NEARS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL WATCH TRENDS A LITTLE
LONGER BEFORE MAKING A FEW TWEAKS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 06Z THEN TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT. VFR DAYTIME TUES BUT WINDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN WITH WITH W-NW GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...SCA NEAR SHORE/GALE WARNING OFFSHORE STILL ON TRACK...
MAY TWEAK FORECAST TO INDICATE SOME TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF
STREAM LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVE.
(PREVIOUS) POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN FURTHER. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE FORM OF
FREQUENT GUSTS. HAVE LIMITED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KNOTS BUT 40-45
KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED NEARSHORE (2-3 FEET)
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILD TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
TUE NIGHT-WED...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KTS
OFFSHORE WITH A OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BY EARLY WED AFTN. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 19Z (2PM). SEAS 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WED.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SEMINOLE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
GLITTO/WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KMLB 191957
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
257 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE TUE AND WED NIGHTS...
...ELEVATED FIRE SENSITIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
TONIGHT/TUE...NAM AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND LIFTING NE
TUE. THIS LOW WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH. CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF GULF STRATOCU DUE
TO W/NW TRAJECTORY. BUT FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.
TUE NIGHT...MAV/NAM MOS NUMBERS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCALES IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL NOT
UPGRADE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING JUST YET...HOWEVER WILL ADD
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WATCH.
DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT (~10 MPH) EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND 20 DEGREES FAR NORTH WITH UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH. FOR LOWS WILL KEEP UPPER 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE 30S
FAR SOUTHEAST.
WED...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY AS
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY. EVEN WITH THE WEAK RECOVERY OF HIGHS THIS DAY IS
CONSIDERED TO BE FIRE SENSITIVE DUE TO DEWPOINTS CRASHING INTO THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WED NIGHT-THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CREST OVER
THE PENINSULA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE BONE DRY SO NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN AND COULD MEAN THAT LOWS MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. OFTEN THESE SECOND
NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS PRODUCE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE EVENT. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ACROSS THE CWA.
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW...
THU NIGHT-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA. MEX MOS HAS THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS...MID 30S. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FROST CONCERNS. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD GET BACK TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S AS AIR MASS MODIFIES
FROM A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SAT-MON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHOULD HANG UP AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SHOWS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY BUT
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS GETTING
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. TEMPO CIGS AROUND 035 EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH W/NW
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS TUE.
&&
.MARINE...POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN FURTHER. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE FORM OF
FREQUENT GUSTS. HAVE LIMITED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KNOTS BUT 40-45
KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED NEARSHORE (2-3 FEET)
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILD TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE EARLY
TUE.
TUE NIGHT-WED...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KTS
OFFSHORE WITH A OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BY EARLY WED AFTN. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 19Z (2PM). SEAS 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WED.
THU-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK GRADIENT. BOATING CONDITIONS
(WINDS/SEAS) FOR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE GOOD...MINUS THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING TUESDAY FOR NORTH LAKE...VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE. MUCH
COLDER AND ESPECIALLY DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. W/NW WIND TRAJECTORY WILL ADVECT VERY
DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS INTO THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...IT
WILL STILL BE A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY WITH STRONG W/NW WINDS AND MIN
RH VALUES AROUND 40% BUT SIG GULF INFLUENCE (CLOUDS) SHOULD LIMIT
RH FALL.
WED-FRI...VERY FIRE SENSITIVE DAY UPCOMING WED AS DEWPOINTS
PROJECTED TO CRASH INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW RH CONCERNS CONTINUE THU WITH MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF AREA AGAIN. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ON HOW
QUICKLY MODELS MODERATE DEWPOINTS BACK UP ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...
BUT FOR NOW WILL TAPER LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE AREA AND
WATCH FOR CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 45 55 27 53 / 20 10 10 0
MCO 48 55 30 54 / 20 10 10 0
MLB 48 61 30 56 / 10 10 10 0
VRB 52 62 32 57 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SEMINOLE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK
000
FXUS62 KMLB 191602 AAA
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NICELY
DEPICTED AS A ROPE CLOUD IN HI RES VIS SAT IMAGERY. SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTN. INCREASING WEST WINDS
FROM DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS SHOULD START ADVECTING
SOME GULF STRATOCU ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING SOME PATCHY VFR
CIGS (~FL050) THIS MORNING AT MCO/MLB/VRB BUT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH SCT GULF STRATOCU EVENTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WEST
WINDS THIS AFTN...GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...PRES GRAD HAS SLACKENED SOMEWHAT BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES THE CAROLINA COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL EXPAND
TO INCLUDE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH NO RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD PREVENT
CRITICAL RH FROM BEING MET BUT STILL EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO DIP
BELOW 40% ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 43 52 27 / 10 20 10 10
MCO 72 48 56 30 / 20 20 10 10
MLB 72 48 60 30 / 20 20 10 10
VRB 73 50 63 32 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SEMINOLE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 190852
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
352 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST ROUND OF SURFACE/METAR AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
PLACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AROUND NEW PORT RICHEY ON THE
GULF COAST TO SAINT AUGUSTINE ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE. RADAR LOOP
SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING BRISKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. IF CURRENT TRENDS BEARS OUT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM UPPER LEVEL (250MB) JET
WIND SPEEDS AND VORTICITY FORECASTS SHOWED THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
(SUBSIDENT) AND NVA MOVING OVERTOP CENTRAL FLORIDA THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SMALL POP OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES THERE WILL BE
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ENJOY
TUESDAY MORNING/S MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S
MARTIN COUNTY.
TUE...THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODEL DEPICTION OF
GRADUALLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THE GFS SHOWS
850 MB TEMP OF MINUS 5 GETTING DOWN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER
60S IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OF 25-30 MPH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND ALSO PUSH SOME STRATOCU ACROSS
THE PENINSULA FROM THE GULF. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD
EASILY BE MET.
TUE NIGHT-WED...POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT DUE TO
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. LATEST MOS VALUES CONTINUE TO SHOW
FREEZE LINE REACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM
THE MAV GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. WILL
PLAN ON UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTH HALF AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON WED...WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BUT CHILLY MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL OCCUR.
WED NIGHT-THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CREST OVER
THE PENINSULA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE BONE DRY SO NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OFTEN THESE SECOND NIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS PRODUCE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
EVENT. MAV MOS SHOWS THIS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF OUR AREA WITH
UPPER 20S NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
THU NIGHT-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA. MEX MOS HAS THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS...MID 30S. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FROST CONCERNS. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD GET BACK TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S AS AIR MASS MODIFIES
FROM A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SAT-MON... FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SHOULD HANG UP AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SHOWS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR OVERCAST WILL CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING. FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ROUTES/TAF SITES
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS AT BUOY 009 WERE SOUTHWEST AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND THE BUOYS OUT TO 20 MILES WERE RECORDING 2 TO 5
FOOT SEAS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECOND...REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WINDS FROM 20 MILES AND BEYOND STILL A GOOD CALL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPENDING TO COVER ALL OF THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHER IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
TUE-WED...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE TUE AND TUE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH WEST FLOW THERE WILL
BE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY NEAR SHORE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
EASE WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.
THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
DIMINISHED WINDS. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S AND TRANSPORT WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH WILL MAKE FOR A FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4.
TUE...THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...MIXING DOWN OF VERY
LOW DEW POINTS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS AT 15
MPH OR GREATER. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE FROM
FLOW OFF THE GULF.
WED-THU...WED STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WITH MID 20S MIN RH
VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING.
LOW RH CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ON THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 43 52 27 / 10 20 10 10
MCO 72 48 56 30 / 20 20 10 10
MLB 72 48 60 30 / 20 20 10 10
VRB 73 50 63 32 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SEMINOLE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 190235
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
...FRONT TO PASS MONDAY THEN A MUCH COLDER SECONDARY SURGE TUESDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SE GA ACROSS FL BIG BEND INTO GULF
PRESENTLY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
BUT HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING TREND AS THEY REACH SOUTH AND
EAST. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND PREFRONTAL SHOWERS STARTING TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS WILL TRIM POP
VALUES DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS/ZONES IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE MINOR.
FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND
TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
NOTICEABLE COOLING WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE
WHICH WILL USHER IN COLD NWLY BREEZES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
TEMPS FOR WED AND THURS MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS MAINLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT SOME
TEMPO CIGS TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 06Z...ESP KLEE-KSFB-KDAB NWD.
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIG CHANGES WITH LATE EVENING PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
(PREVIOUS) SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL HEADLINE CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL
BE VERY SUPPRESSED NEARSHORE BUT BUILD TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS EARLY THIS WEEK AS STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE ATLC
WATERS LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY BUILDING SEAS TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS INTO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND SOME GUSTS TO GALE (35 KT) POSSIBLE OFFSHORE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
THU/FRI AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
GLITTO/WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KMLB 181959
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...BLAST OF COLDER AIR WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK...
TONIGHT/MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALSO BUT MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND AMOUNTS LOOK LOW - LESS THAN 0.1".
PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR EARLY MONDAY. NOT MUCH COOLING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S. IT
WILL BE WINDY WITH WEST WINDS 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. SHOULD SEE
GENERAL DECREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY CIRRUS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A POSSIBLE
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL INSERT A SLGT SHOWER CHANCE WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED.
BREEZY SW/WSW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH SFC LOW PROGD TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND
MID ATLC. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE AFFECT FAR NRN SECTIONS
LATE DROPPING LOWS IN THE LWR 40S...FROM ORLANDO SOUTH EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LWR 50S ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SRN
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES
WITH GUSTY WINDY NW/WNW WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL. A VERY COLD
AIRMASS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NAM INDICATING H8 TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGS C IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL
YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR-MID 50S ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS WITH MID
60S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.
TUE NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED ALONG WITH FREEZE
HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S/LWR 30S NRN TO MID
30S ACROSS FAR SRN AREAS. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE H8 TEMPS TO -6/-7
DEGS C ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVECTION
FREEZE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND WILL NUDGE MINS DOWN A BIT TWD
THE FREEZING MARK.
WED/WED NIGHT/THU...THE COLD WEATHER CONTINUES AS A SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE NW GULF WILL BUILD EAST TWD THE WRN PENINSULA BY THU MORNING. A
VERY DRY AND COLD AIR MASS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON WED
WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONDS LOOK GOOD FOR A RADIATIONAL FREEZE LATE WED NIGHT/THU
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
NO CHANGES NEEDED BEYOND THU TO EXTENDED. FRI-SUN...A WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO BE ACROSS THE AREA
FRI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN STALLING
TO OUR NORTH SAT BY THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN SECTIONS...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY. WILL NOT
INTRODUCE POPS YET FOR THIS WEAK LOOKING BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS (~FL100) WILL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS TONIGHT
FROM THE NW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND -RA EXPECTED AT DAB/LEE/SFB 08Z-12Z. GUSTY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL HEADLINE CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE. SEAS
WILL BE VERY SUPPRESSED NEARSHORE BUT BUILD TO 7 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS EARLY THIS WEEK AS STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE ATLC
WATERS LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY BUILDING SEAS TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS INTO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND SOME GUSTS TO GALE (35 KT) POSSIBLE OFFSHORE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
THU/FRI AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH HAS PROMPTED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35-40% CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...MAKING FOR A FIRE
SENSITIVE DAY.
TUE...THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE MOVED SE OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RHS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID 30 PCT RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE 40-45 PCT RANGE ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS. WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW YET FOR TUE...BUT EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND WIND AND MAY BE MET IN A FEW SPOTS...ESPEC
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 49 71 43 54 / 40 0 20 10
MCO 51 71 48 59 / 40 10 20 10
MLB 55 74 48 61 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 56 76 50 64 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 181541 AAA
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING RAPIDLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
AFTER A CRISP MORNING. VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH MAX
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ESP NORTH HALF AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 MPH.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ESP NORTH HALF LATE TONIGHT BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LOW...0.1" OR LESS. SOUTHERN 1/3 OF FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THRU 00Z...THEN LOWERING CIGS FROM NW TO SE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFT 03Z WITH SOME -RA.
&&
.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE...
REACHING 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY THIS AFTN. SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL COMMENCE AT 7P FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...CAUTION FOR
THE NEAR SHORE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE TODAY AND 3 TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE BUT BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS TO PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 35% ESP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. INCREASING SW FLOW THIS
AFTN WILL HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER. THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES TO "CRASH"...PRODUCING AROUND 4 HOURS OF
SUB-35% RH ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 48 68 44 / 10 50 10 10
MCO 70 51 69 45 / 0 50 10 10
MLB 72 53 72 47 / 0 40 20 10
VRB 72 54 73 51 / 0 40 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180847
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TODAY-MON...
...TURNING MUCH COLDER AGAIN TUE-THU MORNING...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PENINSULA MOVES SOUTHEAST
TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. BEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MOVE QUICKLY OVERTOP OF THE CWA. BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS A WARMER AIR MASS NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA.
MON MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S MUCH WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
MON...COLD FRONT SHOWN BY NAM/GFS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING SOUTHEAST SECTIONS IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WITH A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT...SO EXPECT
SOME STRATOCU PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF. AFTER
CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS...THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE PARTLY
SUNNY.
MON NIGHT-TUE...NAM/GFS SHOW UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE FORMING MON NIGHT AND
SCOOTING EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. MOS FROM THESE MODELS
ARE 40-50 PERCENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MUCH LESS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
AND WOULD EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
TUE NIGHT-THU...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS SHOWN INTENSIFYING A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE CAROLINAS...WHICH WOULD PULL COLD AIR FAR
TO THE SOUTH. NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONG COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT
WITH MINUS 5 DEGREES AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN PUSHING ACROSS THE PENINSULA WED
NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...FROM
ADVECTION WED MORNING THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING THU MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AFFECTING A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE TEMPS WERE TRENDED LOWER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DID
NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS WHICH INDICATES FREEZING TEMPS DOWN
TO THE SPACE COAST AND NORTH TREASURE COAST WED AND THU MORNINGS.
INSTEAD PLAN TO MENTION LOWER 30S IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST NORTH
SECTIONS. IF THE LATEST TREND CONTINUES...THE FREEZING LINE WILL
HAVE TO BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH.
FRI-SUN...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS/ECMWF TO BE ACROSS THE AREA FRI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT DRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN STALLING TO OUR NORTH SAT BY THE
ECMWF WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS...
THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY. WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS YET FOR
THIS WEAK LOOKING BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR/FEW-SCT250 TIL 19/00Z. AFT 19/00Z BKN-OVC060-120 AS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS BIG BEND AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH LCL 3-5SM -RA
AFT 19/03Z FROM KMCO TO KDAB NORTH AS FRONT ENTERS FORECAST AREA.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MON...GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
TUE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA IN THE MORNING AND OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WATERS.
WED...GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIGHT EARLY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN START TO EASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY THOUGH AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THU...COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA SO WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST LATE TUE WITH THE LATEST
MOS RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT IN THE FAR NORTH. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE COULD BE LOW RH CONCERNS WITH WIND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
WED...LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WITH LOW RH CONCERNS ACROSS MORE
OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE EASING THOUGH.
THU...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEARBY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
POSSIBLE LOW RH CONCERNS AGAIN. ALSO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST IN THE EARLY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 48 68 44 / 10 50 10 10
MCO 69 51 69 45 / 0 50 10 10
MLB 71 53 72 47 / 0 40 20 10
VRB 72 54 73 51 / 0 40 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180220
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD
AND ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF PENINSULA THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SINCE SUNSET WHILE
N-NE WIND COMPONENT 5-10 MPH CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO SLACKEN IN THE LATE NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NE-SW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST BUT DIMINISHING AS THEY
APPROACH THE COAST. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS FROM
TEH GULF BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS/DEW POINTS TO FALL TO VALUES FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION AND
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FROST ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH. NO SIG
CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVE.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. COULD BE PATCHY MVFR IN BR BRIEFLY
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DECLINED BELOW SCA VALUES AND HAVE ALLOWED SCA
TO EXPIRE AT PLANNED TIME. WILL LEAVE A CAUTION HEADLINE UP FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GLITTO/SHARP
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171949
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
249 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
FREEZING TEMPS NOT EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FA. SO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY. PATCHY
FROST IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND AWAY FROM WATER SOURCES.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN SW AND INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AND PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S LAKE COUNTY TO MID 70S FAR SOUTH. DRY
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY.
SUN NIGHT-MON...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUN NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER
THE NORTH UP TO 40% WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE UPPER 40S/NEAR
50 MARK. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE (30%) POPS IN THIS REGION
WITH NIL POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MON WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.
MON NIGHT-TUES...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT...DRAGGING A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TUES. MOISTURE
RETURN LOOKS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MON NIGHT
IN THE LOW/MID 40S AND HIGHS TUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WED-THU...PERSIST DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHERN AREAS TO UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 MARTIN COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST AREAS TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S MARTIN COUNTY. ALONG THE
COAST.
FRI...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE LIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES STILL VERY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING...NOW
SUPPORTING 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT
OFFSHORE SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL 02Z
(9PM) FOR THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 3-4 FT NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS HIGH CENTER
PASSES OVERHEAD AND PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HGT WILL BE FROM
SWELL. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES DURING THE DAY BUT
OFFSHORE NORTH LEGS WILL SEE SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTN.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN THE AREA AND PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. SW WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE WITH SCA LIKELY NEEDED
OFFSHORE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUES KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS
ELEVATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THURS WITH MARINE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GOOD CHANCE FOR FROST ESP NORTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT THOUGH FREEZING TEMPS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. MIN RH VALUES FORECAST TO
BE 35-40% ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AND
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EVEN DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
MIN RH VALUES LOOK TO NEAR THE MID 30S AND PERHAPS LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH FIRE WX WATCH/RFW POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 38 70 47 63 / 0 10 40 10
MCO 40 70 49 65 / 0 10 40 10
MLB 39 71 50 66 / 0 10 30 20
VRB 44 73 52 68 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
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