000
FXUS62 KMHX 201636
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1136 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
ONLY AREA STILL SEEING LIGHT RAIN IS THE OUTER BANKS. THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA BY 18Z. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MDT SNOW BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS MAINLAND
HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BAND OF MDT SNOW IS FALLING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL TRANSLATE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECTING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. LIGHTER SNOW
AMOUNTS (2 TO 4 INCHES) EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS
AS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
WINTER STORM WARNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CARTERET COUNTY AND OBX
HYDE WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 INLAND AND SLOWLY FALL TO NEAR 30 ACROSS NE SECTIONS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BANDS OF SNOW LINGER ALONG OBX THIS EVENING BEFORE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOTTING WORKS TO COAST BY MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL LGT ACCUM
OVER OBX BUT SNOW SHUD BE ABRUPTLY ENDING OVR CSTL PLAIN BY ARND
SUNSET. CLEAR/COLD/BRISK CONDS SET IN TNGT WITH SNOW COVER HELPING
TEMPERATURE DROP MAINLY INTO THE 20-25 DEG RANGE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. A FEW TEENS LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.
DEEP DRY NW FLOW AND SNOW COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING M30S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WED NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN 20-25F
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE MODERATION BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
WSW FLOW DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WITH CONTD WARMING TREND FRI AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE
S. HIGHS SHLD REACH AROUND 60 INLAND FRI. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUN
THAT THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE MON. SOME PRECIP POSS WITH FRONT
CROSSING SAT BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEAR TO BE WEAK SO KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR NOW. AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MON RETURN
FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME SHRA BUT AGAIN WILL LIMIT TO SLIGHT CHC.
TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF NC PULLING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO BANDING...BUT COULD
SEE LONG SPELLS OF VSBYS AOB 1NM...WITH PREDOMINANT 2-3NM. WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD KEEP BLOWING
SNOW AROUND DESPITE THE END OF PRECIP. THE TERMINALS COULD SEE A
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE EVENT CONCLUDES (REF
WSWMHX). THE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE FCST INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS.
VFR EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL START GALES FOR ALL WATERS ON THIS UPDATE. ALLIGATOR RIVER
GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AT WELL AS DUCK AT 10 AM.
00Z GFS IS THE FAVORED MODEL AND IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. EXPECT GALE
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. DUE TO THE LOW MOVING AWAY SO
QUICKLY TONIGHT I TRIMMED BACK ENDING TIME FOR GALES TO 00Z FOR THE
SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND TO 06Z FOR THE
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF STATES. LIGHT
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND OFF THE
SOUTH COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-
044>046-079-080-090>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ047-081-
094-098-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ095-
104.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-135-156-
158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC
MARINE...JAC
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200737
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN
MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIKELY
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
RADAR SHOWS PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER THE NC CSTL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORN
IN AREA OF INCREASING 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. MUCH OF THIS PCPN
HAS BEEN ALOFT INITIALLY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LAYERS AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN REACHING THE GROUND BY SUNRISE.
TEMPS ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIQUID PTYPE ATTM BUT
COLUMN COOLING/FALLING TEMP PROFILES WILL CHANGE PCPN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREAS TO
SEE THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE AT THE COAST BUT SHUD BE ALL SNOW THERE
BY MID-LATE AFTN AS WELL AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND DEPARTING
CSTL LOW.
HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ACCUMULATION WILL BE
INITIALLY DELAYED BY WARM GROUND BUT THE SNOW SHUD START STICKING
(FIRST TO GRASSY SURFACES/BRIDGES/OVERPASSES THEN TO ROADS) AS
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVR THE CSTL PLAIN BY MID MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR LATER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DELAYED
CHANGEOVER BUT SHUD SEE STICKING THERE AS WELL THE AFTN GOES ON.
DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE WSW HEADLINES EVEN THO IT LOOKS TO BE
A MARGINAL EVENT. EVEN WITH A BIT LESS ACCUMULATION...WARNING
CRITERIA (3" IN 12 HOURS) LIKELY TO BE MET IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5" OR HIGHER IF HEAVY BANDING SETS UP OVR A
PARTICULAR AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR CARTERET/OBX HYDE WHERE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WL OCCUR LAST WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BANDS OF SNOW LINGER ALONG OBX THIS EVENING BEFORE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOTTING WORKS TO COAST BY MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL LGT ACCUM
OVER OBX BUT SNOW SHUD BE ABRUPTLY ENDING OVR CSTL PLAIN BY ARND
SUNSET. CLEAR/COLD/BRISK CONDS SET IN TNGT WITH SNOW COVER HELPING
TEMPERATURE DROP MAINLY INTO THE 20-25 DEG RANGE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. A FEW TEENS LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.
DEEP DRY NW FLOW AND SNOW COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING M30S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WED NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN 20-25F
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE MODERATION BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
WSW FLOW DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WITH CONTD WARMING TREND FRI AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE
S. HIGHS SHLD REACH AROUND 60 INLAND FRI. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUN
THAT THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE MON. SOME PRECIP POSS WITH FRONT
CROSSING SAT BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEAR TO BE WEAK SO KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR NOW. AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MON RETURN
FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME SHRA BUT AGAIN WILL LIMIT TO SLIGHT CHC.
TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND DZ/RA DEVELOPING AS OVERRUNNING
AHEAD OF A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. THE LOW MOVING OFF SC WILL
SLIDE EAST AND PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
VARIABLE DUE TO BANDING OF THE SNOW...BUT COULD SEE LONG SPELLS OF
VSBYS 1NM...WITH PREDOMINANT 2-3NM. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD KEEP BLOWING SNOW AROUND DESPITE
THE END OF PRECIP. THE TERMINALS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE EVENT CONCLUDES (REF WSWMHX). THE WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE LOW
CLOUDS LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE
FCST INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.
VFR EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 00Z GFS IS THE FAVORED MODEL
AND IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. MSAS LOOP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
RAPIDLY JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT GALE CONDITONS TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. DUE TO THE LOW MOVING AWAY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT I
TRIMMED BACK ENDING TIME FOR GALES TO 00Z FOR THE SOUNDS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND TO 06Z FOR THE WATERS NORTH
OF OCRACOKE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BEGINNING TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF STATES. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND OFF THE SOUTH COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
HIGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-
044>046-079-080-090>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ047-081-
094-098-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ095-
104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ130-135-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...HSA
000
FXUS61 KMHX 200349
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1045 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE S TONIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST TUE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SW WED AND PASS S OF THE AREA THU. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW FRI THEN DROP SE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
TO THE N MON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN HAVING TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH DRY SUB-CLOUDY LAYER
AND LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES LESS SUPPORT FOR WDSPRD PCPN
OVERNIGHT. STILL THINK PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPES S AND BRINGS IN COLDER AIR...AIDING OVERRUNNING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT. DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER OVERNIGHT AND DELAYED
START OF ADVSY FOR COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL 07Z. MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST HOURLY READINGS WITH TEMPS SLOWER TO FALL THAN
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUE EVENING IMD CST WITH POSS
ANOTHER INCH OR SO OUTER BANKS BEFORE IT ENDS. TEMPS WILL REALLY
DROP TUE NIGHT ESPCLY IF WE GETS THE EXPECTED SNOW...HAVE LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS INLAND TO MID 20S OBX. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SW WED AS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN...HOWEVER THICKNESSES AND POSS
SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP RISE AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WITH WARMING TREND THU AND FRI AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE S.
HIGHS SHLD REACH UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 THU...THEN POSS REACH AROUND
60 INLAND FRI. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUN THAT THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE MON. SOME
PRECIP POSS WITH FRONT CROSSING SAT BUT THIS FAR OUT JUST KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC RANGE. AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MON RETURN FLOW MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHRA BUT AGAIN WILL LIMIT TO SLIGHT CHC. TEMPS WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT 06Z AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS
OFF THE SC COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NC
OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUE. MID CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. LIGHT RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS AFT 06Z WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW
EXPECTED 09-12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AFT 04Z. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
10-15 KT ON TUE AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS TUE EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDING AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MVFR AFT 21 Z
THEN VFR AFT 22/03Z.
VFR EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SINKING S ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH
SFC LOW ACROSS ERN SC/GA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT N/NW WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WAVES A BIT HIGHER CENTRAL WATERS
REACHING 6 FT AT DIAMOND BUOY BUT OTHERWISE WAVEWATCH GENERALLY ON
TRACK. MAINLY ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTION SRN WATERS OTHERWISE FORECAST
ON TRACK FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
NO CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST GAINED WITH RELEASE OF 00Z NAM MODELS
WHICH SHOWS THE SFC LOW TRACKING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE...RESULTING
IN WINDS JUST BELOW GALES ACROSS ALL WATERS TOMORROW. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY RADICAL CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE AND WILL LET MID SHIFT LOOK
AT FULL SUITE OF MODELS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL OVER AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES EAST WITH A STRONG S/W
INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
SFC LOW WILL THEN LIFT NE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUE AND WELL
NE OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING ALL
WATERS TUE MORNING BECOMING NW TUE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
NE. PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL MEET GALE CRITERIA OVER THE WARMER
CENTRAL WATERS AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE 18Z TUE TO 09Z WED. LESS
CONFIDENT THAT SOLID GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER REMAINING WATERS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL KEEP THE GALE WATCH IN EFFECT OVER
THIS AREA. AT THE LEAST SHOULD SEE STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINING WATERS BUT WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. WILL LET THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF A
WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE OUTER BANKS TUE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE CAPPED WIND SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW GIVEN LATEST SREF AND MET/MAV
GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS AOB 30 KT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TUE EVENING ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT SPEED OF THE SFC LOW AND RATHER SHORT DURATION OF
STRONGER NW WINDS WILL KEEP THIS THREAT RATHER LOW. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT WILL BUILD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUE WITH HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON WHERE
7 TO 10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
NEAR DIAMOND BUOY. POSSIBLE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TUE AFTERNOON AS SEAS APPROACH 10 FT NEAR SHORE. NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 4 TO 6 FT NORTH
AND 3 TO 5 FT SOUTH BY 12Z WED.
QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED THROUGH SAT. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>046-079-080-090>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ047-081-094-098-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ095-104.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ130-135-150-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...SEK
MARINE...SEK
000
FXUS62 KMHX 192108
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
408 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE S TONIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST TUE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SW WED AND PASS S OF THE AREA THU. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW FRI THEN DROP SE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
TO THE N MON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FCST AS STRONG SRT WAVE DROPS THROUGH LONG WAVE TROF TO THE
W AND LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE S. EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG SRT
WAVE. ALONG THE COAST THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND EXPECT RAIN TO START INIT THEN AS ATMS
COOLS WILL SEE MIX WITH AND LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT
ESPCLY DEEP INLAND AND N. COOLING ALOFT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST
TUE MORN AS DEEP UPR TRF APPROACHES AND PRECIP SHLD CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVEN ALONG THE CST DURING THE AFTN. HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN TIER WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
FURTHER S WILL LOWER AMOUNTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES S CST WHERE GOOD
PART OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN OR A MIX INIT. HOWEVER EVEN
ACROSS THE S CST DO EXPECT DECENT BAND OF SNOW IN DEFORMATION AREA
DURING THE AFTN JUST AHEAD OF UPR TRF. BASED ON THESE NUMBERS
UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT CARTERET
AND OBX HYDE WHERE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL COOL TO LOWER 30S INLAND WITH MID 30S CST. TEMPS SHLD
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP A LITTLE TUE AS THE COLUMN COOLS WITH SNOW
FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUE EVENING IMD CST WITH POSS
ANOTHER INCH OR SO OUTER BANKS BEFORE IT ENDS. TEMPS WILL REALLY
DROP TUE NIGHT ESPCLY IF WE GETS THE EXPECTED SNOW...HAVE LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS INLAND TO MID 20S OBX. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SW WED AS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN...HOWEVER THICKNESSES AND POSS
SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP RISE AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WITH WARMING TREND THU AND FRI AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE S.
HIGHS SHLD REACH UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 THU...THEN POSS REACH AROUND
60 INLAND FRI. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUN THAT THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE MON. SOME
PRECIP POSS WITH FRONT CROSSING SAT BUT THIS FAR OUT JUST KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC RANGE. AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MON RETURN FLOW MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHRA BUT AGAIN WILL LIMIT TO SLIGHT CHC. TEMPS WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SW WINDS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
06Z AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SC COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NC OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUE. MID CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. LIGHT
RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TERMINALS AFT 06Z WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW EXPECTED 09-12Z.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUE WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AFT 04Z. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KT ON
TUE AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TUE EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDING AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MVFR AFT
21 Z THEN VFR AFT 22/03Z.
VFR EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUE AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES EAST WITH A STRONG S/W INDUCING SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUE AND WELL NE OF THE
AREA BY TUE NIGHT. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING ALL
WATERS TUE MORNING BECOMING NW TUE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
NE. PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL MEET GALE CRITERIA OVER THE WARMER
CENTRAL WATERS AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE 18Z TUE TO 09Z WED. LESS
CONFIDENT THAT SOLID GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER REMAINING WATERS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL KEEP THE GALE WATCH IN EFFECT OVER
THIS AREA. AT THE LEAST SHOULD SEE STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINING WATERS BUT WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. WILL LET THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF A
WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE OUTER BANKS TUE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE CAPPED WIND SPEEDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW GIVEN LATEST SREF AND MET/MAV
GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS AOB 30 KT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TUE EVENING ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT SPEED OF THE SFC LOW AND RATHER SHORT DURATION OF
STRONGER NW WINDS WILL KEEP THIS THREAT RATHER LOW. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT WILL BUILD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUE WITH HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON WHERE
7 TO 10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
NEAR DIAMOND BUOY. POSSIBLE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TUE AFTERNOON AS SEAS APPROACH 10 FT NEAR SHORE. NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 4 TO 6 FT NORTH
AND 3 TO 5 FT SOUTH BY 12Z WED.
QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED THROUGH SAT. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ047-081-094-098-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ095-104.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ130-135-150-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JW
MARINE...JW
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191610
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1110 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE OUTER BANKS ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG IS LIFTING OVER INLAND SITES BUT STILL PERSISTING A BIT NE CST.
SRN TIER WILL SEE MOST SUN INTO THE AFTN WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER 50S. NRN TIER WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS AND WITH SOME LINGERING
FOG NE CST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM MON... SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING THRU
THE MIDWEST WILL CARVE OUT DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES THRU
TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRES ENTERING THE TNVLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE SOUTHERN MTNS THEN REDEVELOP WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE
SE COAST TNGT. ASSOCD PCPN WILL BE SCTD/LIGHT AT THE ONSET THIS EVE
THEN BECOME STEADIER/HEAVIER AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON
TUE. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN
WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR MANY AREAS (EXCEPT
LIKELY STARTING AS SNOW FAR INLAND AREAS) BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COLUMN
COOLING CHANGES PCPN TO SNOW MOST AREAS EARLY TUE MORN. EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG CSTL AREAS WHERE WARMER LOW LAYERS LIKELY MAINTAIN
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO TUE AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF OBX. INITIAL GUESS AT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 3-6
INCHES WITH 1-4 INCHES OBX/SOUTH COAST. HAVE POSTED WINTER STORM
WATCHES FOR ENTIRE AREA. WSW BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT EXCEPT STARTING AT 5
AM TUE FOR
HYDE/DARE/CARTERET COUNTIES WHERE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATER.
SNOW TAPERS OFF TO FLURRIES TUE EVE BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAY CONTINUE OVER OBX BEFORE WRAPARND MOISTURE MOVES OUT WITH
DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER THIS PD AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL. DRY WX
WED THROUGH FRI. NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SAT HOWEVER MAY BE
LACKING MOISTURE SO KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD WED BUT WILL WARM NICELY THU AND ESPCLY FRI
AS HGTS RISE...MAY SEE SOME LOW 60S INLAND FRI. TEMPS WILL COOL A
BIT OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRONT BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY
REAL COLD AIR FROM REACHING AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS OF 11 AM...A COMBINATION OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER
THE TERMINALS WITH CIGS AOB 500 FT AT BOTH KISO AND KPV WITH MVFR
OCCURRING AT KEWN AND KOAJ. FOG IS DISSIPATING AS WELL AND EXPECT
THE LOWER CIGS TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO VFR AFT 17Z OVER ALL
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE
SE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR OVER THE TERMINALS AFT MIDNIGHT
WITH A TRANSITION TO IFR AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE TERMINALS. WESTERN TERMINALS OF KPGV AND KISO WILL SEE A QUICK
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BUT EASTERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
MIX UNTIL DAYBREAK TUE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST
ON TUE WITH STRENGTHENING NE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA (REF WSW).
WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WED WITH A QUIET WX PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST THIS UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AS SEAS ARE
NOW BELOW 6 FT. SCA CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL WATERS DUE
TO 6 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER THIS AREA. SOME OR ALL OF THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT AFT 20/00Z.
LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKES LATER TODAY.
WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE THE SET-UP HAS BEEN BUILDING FOR A CLASSIC
HATTERAS-LOW TYPE WINTER STORM. NOW THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN
LINE AND CONFIDENCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS GROWING. OPC/HPC PREFER
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE UKMET/00Z ECMWF TO THE GFS OR THE
STRONGER NAM SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD PUT THE LOW NEAREST HATTERAS LATE
AFT/EARLY TUE EVENING. GIVEN THIS FAVORED BAROCLINIC SPOT NEARER THE
GULF STREAM WOULD ANTICIPATE DEEP CYCLOGENESIS DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. CAN`T
RULE OUT SEEING WINDS NEARING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG OBX...BUT THIS
SEEMS ON THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY ISN`T
FAVORED SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY ADVISORY WINDS (BELOW BLIZZARD
CRITERIA). THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW WILL KEEP
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXP THEM TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARDS EARLY
WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS...BUT FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AS WINDS SWITCH BACK
OFFSHORE AROUND THE PEAK AND HOLD CONDITIONS TO LIKELY HIGH SURF
(ADVISORIES LIKELY IN LATER FCST PACKAGE). THE GALE WINDS WILL
LIKELY NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOUND SIDE FLOODING...BUT
AGAIN COULD SEE AN ADVISORY OR STATEMENT ABOUT LOW WATERS ON THE W
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THE OBX IN NW FLOW TUE NT. THE REST OF
THE FCST IS UNUSUALLY BENIGN FOR LATE JANUARY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS
UNTIL SUN WHEN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SINKS S. THIS IS DUE TO THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AND THEN SLIGHT RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>094-098.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ047-081-095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ
000
FXUS62 KMHX 190924
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
424 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE OUTER BANKS ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORN AND
WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL DFA DURING THE NEXT HOUR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN AND LIGHT BNDRY LAYER MIXING SHUD TEND TO BREAK UP THE
FOG THRU SUNRISE.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA THIS MORN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW WL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH U40S/L50S THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE MIDWEST
WILL CARVE OUT DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES THRU TUESDAY.
SFC LOW PRES ENTERING THE TNVLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN MTNS THEN REDEVELOP WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE SE
COAST TNGT. ASSOCD PCPN WILL BE SCTD/LIGHT AT THE ONSET THIS EVE
THEN BECOME STEADIER/HEAVIER AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
ON TUE. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR MANY AREAS
(EXCEPT LIKELY STARTING AS SNOW FAR INLAND AREAS) BEFORE
EVAPORATIVE COLUMN COOLING CHANGES PCPN TO SNOW MOST AREAS EARLY
TUE MORN. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG CSTL AREAS WHERE WARMER LOW
LAYERS LIKELY MAINTAIN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO TUE AFTN
BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF OBX. INITIAL
GUESS AT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 3-6 INCHES WITH 1-4 INCHES OBX/SOUTH
COAST. HAVE POSTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE AREA. WSW
BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT EXCEPT STARTING AT 5 AM TUE FOR
HYDE/DARE/CARTERET COUNTIES WHERE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR
LATER.
SNOW TAPERS OFF TO FLURRIES TUE EVE BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAY CONTINUE OVER OBX BEFORE WRAPARND MOISTURE MOVES OUT WITH
DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER THIS PD AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL. DRY WX
WED THROUGH FRI. NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SAT HOWEVER MAY BE
LACKING MOISTURE SO KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD WED BUT WILL WARM NICELY THU AND ESPCLY FRI
AS HGTS RISE...MAY SEE SOME LOW 60S INLAND FRI. TEMPS WILL COOL A
BIT OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRONT BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY
REAL COLD AIR FROM REACHING AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN YESTERDAY PROVIDED ENOUGH SATURATION AT THE SFC
TO TRIGGER SOME OVERNIGHT FOG. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW
WINDS ALSO ENHANCED FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH MANY SITES IFR/LIFR. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF TO A PARTLY CLOUDY
MORNING. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE W OF THE AREA WILL
TRIGGER SOME AFT CLOUDS (5-8K FT). VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE SE. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE COAST TUE...STRENGTHENING NE WINDS AND TRIGGERING RAIN AND
THEN SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE (REF
WSW). WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WED WITH A QUIET WX PATTERN SETTING UP
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR TODAY A WEAK SFC LOW WILL LINGER INLAND AND MOVE N OF THE
REGION. THIS FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS W/SW TODAY...AND ALLOW SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT THIS MORNING ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS.
LINGERING 3 FT SWELL HAS AIDED IN KEEPING SEAS UP OVERNIGHT
DESPITE WEAK WINDS...HOWEVER AS THAT SUBSIDES AS WELL TODAY FEEL
CONFIDENT WE SHOULD HAVE A WINDOW OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.
LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKES LATER TODAY. WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE THE SET-UP HAS BEEN BUILDING FOR A CLASSIC
HATTERAS-LOW TYPE WINTER STORM. NOW THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
IN LINE AND CONFIDENCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS GROWING. OPC/HPC
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE UKMET/00Z ECMWF TO THE
GFS OR THE STRONGER NAM SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD PUT THE LOW NEAREST
HATTERAS LATE AFT/EARLY TUE EVENING. GIVEN THIS FAVORED BAROCLINIC
SPOT NEARER THE GULF STREAM WOULD ANTICIPATE DEEP CYCLOGENESIS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE ONSET OF
GALE CONDITIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT SEEING WINDS NEARING WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG OBX...BUT THIS SEEMS ON THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO
WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY ISN`T FAVORED SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY
ADVISORY WINDS (BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA). THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE EXITING LOW WILL KEEP GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXP THEM TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARDS EARLY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO
THE DOUBLE DIGITS...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES AS WINDS SWITCH BACK OFFSHORE AROUND THE PEAK AND HOLD
CONDITIONS TO LIKELY HIGH SURF (ADVISORIES LIKELY IN LATER FCST PACKAGE).
THE GALE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOUND
SIDE FLOODING...BUT AGAIN COULD SEE AN ADVISORY OR STATEMENT ABOUT
LOW WATERS ON THE W AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THE OBX IN NW FLOW
TUE NT. THE REST OF THE FCST IS UNUSUALLY BENIGN FOR LATE JANUARY
WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL SUN WHEN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SINKS
S. THIS IS DUE TO THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AND THEN
SLIGHT RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>094-098.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ047-081-095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ
000
FXUS62 KMHX 190303
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST N OF THE AREA MON AND SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST TUE AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW WED AND PASS S
OF THE AREA THU. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE FRI AND
CROSS THE REGION SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED TO REFLECT QUICKER DRYING TREND OVER AREA WITH PCPN EXPECTED
TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. SOME CLEARING NOTED OVER WRN COASTAL PLAINS
BUT WITH STRONG CAA LACKING...EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER
AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS FOR SLOWER COOLING TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER SRT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPR TRF ON MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS N OF REGION AND WILL ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS IF ANY
WITH BEST CHCS ACROSS THE N WHERE FORCING A BIT STRONGER. THERMAL
PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID S WITH POSS A BIT OF FRZN MIXED WITH RAIN UP N.
GIVEN SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EXPECT NO PROBLEMS FROM ANY SNOW WE
DO SEE MON AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHS MON WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S
AROUND 40 EXTREME N TO UPPER 40S S. MAINLY DRY MON NIGHT BETWEEN
SRT WAVES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO MID 30S CST. LAST
AND STRONGEST SRT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION TUE. THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE/QPF DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. PAST 2 RUNS OF EMCWF SHOWING DECENT
QPF AND WOULD IMPLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN OTHER MDLS SHOWING MUCH
LOWER QPF WILL NOT JUMP ON EMCWF YET BUT WILL UP TO CHC ALL AREAS
TUE. ATMS WILL BE QUITE COLD AND FCST PRECIP AS ALL SNOW. THIS HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIF SYSTEM AND LATER FCSTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
CHCS OF MEASURABLE SNOW. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END TUE NIGHT AS
SRT WAVE FINALLY MOVES E WITH COLD...DRY AIR SPREADING IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER THIS PD AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL. DRY WX WED
THROUGH FRI. NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SAT HOWEVER MAY BE LACKING
MOISTURE SO KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COLD WED BUT WILL WARM NICELY THU AND ESPCLY FRI AS HGTS
RISE...MAY SEE SOME LOW 60S INLAND FRI. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRONT BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY REAL COLD AIR
FROM REACHING AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOVED E OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SE COASTAL
SECTIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIP AS OF 02Z. WHILE IR SATELLITE SHOWING
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING E OF THE TERMINALS...11-3.9MICRON SATELLITE AND
SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS BRINGING MAINLY MVFR BUT LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL AS ERN NC WITH
A STRIP OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFFSHORE...THERE IS VERY LIMITED CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT...IN FACT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING
AROUND 975 MB WHICH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION ACROSS THE
AREA. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT WITH SUCH A STRONG INVERSION
AND EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ONLY ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CIGS MAINLY AOB IFR AT THE
TERMINALS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CLEARING TO ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AND HAVE INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 09Z...BUT COULD CERTAINLY BEGIN SOONER. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE SFC DRYING AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE INVERSION BREAKING
MID/LATE MORNING...SO EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 14-15Z.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH MAINLY N OF AREA
ON MON...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA
ON TUE. LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
BUT OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EARLY THIS WEEK. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR A FEW -RA/SN SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THESE FEATURES. STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE ESP WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
COASTAL LOW WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND THUS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
-SN ESP NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WE HAVE
CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. TAMER WX AND MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF AREA AND FLATTER PATTERN ALOFT DVLPS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS A BIT STRONG WITH THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUND THIS
EVENING...LIKELY NOT ACCOUNTING FOR LIMITED MIXING WITH WATER TEMPS
AROUND 40F...SO HAVE LOWERED WINDS ACROSS THE SOUNDS TO 10-15 KT.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS MOST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE AND ARE CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY 15-20
KT AND WILL NOT CHANGE. FARTHER OFFSHORE 25KT+ WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT AT 41036 AND 7 FT AT 41025. CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES SEAS WELL AND WILL LEAVE SCA AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AS OF 2PM SUNDAY...SW FLOW HAS INCREASED INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTN BTWN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING
FRONT. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVE SYSTEM HAS BUILT INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE
IN RESPONSE MAINLY SRN WATERS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 20-30 KT SW WINDS WILL BLOW IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF MUCH OF
THE SE COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THINK THIS FETCH WILL
PRODUCE ENOUGH PUSH TO BUILD LOCAL SEAS INTO THE LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE EXPOSED WATERS MAINLY S OF OREGON INLET.
HAVE THUS ISSUED A SCA THERE INTO MON MORNING. WINDS/SEAS BACK OFF
EARLY MON BUT PICK BACK UP MON AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE MON NITE. WINDS SHIFT NW BY TUE MORNING BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MODERATE TO
STRONG RANGE AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP GUIDANCE ESP ON TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT AN APPROACHING STRONG UPR SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SPARK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT TUE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE NAM/GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS. IF THIS VERIFIES COULD BE LOOKING
AT A PERIOD OF GALES ON TUE BUT HAVE GONE THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE
FOR NOW...JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AFORMENTIONED CONSENSUS. IN
ADDITION...COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME WINTER WX ON TUE AS THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SLATED FOR WED/THU AS LOW PRES RACES NE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SW...LEAVING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SW TO W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS INCREASE A NOTCH FRI THEN
SHIFT MORE NLY BY SAT AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DID NOT
STRAY TOO MUCH FROM WW3 FOR SEAS IN SHORT TERM...THOUGH DID GO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE TUE EARLY WED WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
WENT MORE WITH A CONCEPTUAL MODEL/CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND FOR
NLY FLOW...SINCE GFS NOT PREFERRED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME SMALLER UNDERLYING ESE SWELL RESIDE MOSTLY IN THE
BACKGROUND OF STRONGER WIND WAVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THANKS TO STRONG HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...MW/SK
MARINE...MW/SK
000
FXUS62 KMHX 181939
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
239 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST N OF THE AREA MON AND SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST TUE AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW WED AND PASS S
OF THE AREA THU. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE FRI AND
CROSS THE REGION SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AS SRT WAVE CROSSES. RAIN SHLD END BY 06Z AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN WAKE OF SRT WAVE. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING LATE WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 30 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO MID/UPR 30S CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER SRT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPR TRF ON MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS N OF REGION AND WILL ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS IF ANY
WITH BEST CHCS ACROSS THE N WHERE FORCING A BIT STRONGER. THERMAL
PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID S WITH POSS A BIT OF FRZN MIXED WITH RAIN UP N.
GIVEN SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EXPECT NO PROBLEMS FROM ANY SNOW WE
DO SEE MON AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHS MON WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S
AROUND 40 EXTREME N TO UPPER 40S S. MAINLY DRY MON NIGHT BETWEEN
SRT WAVES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO MID 30S CST. LAST
AND STRONGEST SRT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION TUE. THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE/QPF DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. PAST 2 RUNS OF EMCWF SHOWING DECENT
QPF AND WOULD IMPLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN OTHER MDLS SHOWING MUCH
LOWER QPF WILL NOT JUMP ON EMCWF YET BUT WILL UP TO CHC ALL AREAS
TUE. ATMS WILL BE QUITE COLD AND FCST PRECIP AS ALL SNOW. THIS HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIF SYSTEM AND LATER FCSTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
CHCS OF MEASURABLE SNOW. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END TUE NIGHT AS
SRT WAVE FINALLY MOVES E WITH COLD...DRY AIR SPREADING IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER THIS PD AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL. DRY WX WED
THROUGH FRI. NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS SAT HOWEVER MAY BE LACKING
MOISTURE SO KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COLD WED BUT WILL WARM NICELY THU AND ESPCLY FRI AS HGTS
RISE...MAY SEE SOME LOW 60S INLAND FRI. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND BEHIND FRONT BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY REAL COLD AIR
FROM REACHING AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2PM SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY THRU THE
MHX CWA THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR TO THIS POINT WITH
PATCHY MVFR...BUT EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF AFTN AND INTO EARLY EVENING TO PREDOMINANT MVFR/ISO IFR AS AXIS
OF MSTR MOVES OVER TERMINALS. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED AFTER
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVELS NOT
EXPECTED TO REALLY SCOUR OUT. THUS...LOW FLIGHT RULES WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALL OF THE AVIATION GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON AND SO
DOES THE 18Z TAF. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED MON MORNING THEN
RETURNING TO VFR BY EARLY MON AFTN.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH MAINLY N OF AREA
ON MON...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA
ON TUE. LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
BUT OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EARLY THIS WEEK. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR A FEW -RA/SN SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THESE FEATURES. STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE ESP WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
COASTAL LOW WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND THUS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
-SN ESP NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WE HAVE
CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
TAMER WX AND MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF AREA AND FLATTER PATTERN ALOFT DVLPS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 2PM SUNDAY...SW FLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
THIS AFTN BTWN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING FRONT. SHORT
PERIOD SW WAVE SYSTEM HAS BUILT INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE IN RESPONSE
MAINLY SRN WATERS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 20-30
KT SW WINDS WILL BLOW IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF MUCH OF THE SE
COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THINK THIS FETCH WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH PUSH TO BUILD LOCAL SEAS INTO THE LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE EXPOSED WATERS MAINLY S OF OREGON INLET.
HAVE THUS ISSUED A SCA THERE INTO MON MORNING. WINDS/SEAS BACK OFF
EARLY MON BUT PICK BACK UP MON AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE MON NITE. WINDS SHIFT NW BY TUE MORNING BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MODERATE TO
STRONG RANGE AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP GUIDANCE ESP ON TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT AN APPROACHING STRONG UPR SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SPARK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT TUE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE NAM/GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS. IF THIS VERIFIES COULD BE LOOKING
AT A PERIOD OF GALES ON TUE BUT HAVE GONE THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE
FOR NOW...JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AFORMENTIONED CONSENSUS. IN
ADDITION...COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME WINTER WX ON TUE AS THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SLATED FOR WED/THU AS LOW PRES RACES NE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SW...LEAVING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SW TO W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS INCREASE A NOTCH FRI THEN
SHIFT MORE NLY BY SAT AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DID NOT
STRAY TOO MUCH FROM WW3 FOR SEAS IN SHORT TERM...THOUGH DID GO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE TUE EARLY WED WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
WENT MORE WITH A CONCEPTUAL MODEL/CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND FOR
NLY FLOW...SINCE GFS NOT PREFERRED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME SMALLER UNDERLYING ESE SWELL RESIDE MOSTLY IN THE
BACKGROUND OF STRONGER WIND WAVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THANKS TO STRONG HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW
000
FXUS62 KMHX 181448
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
948 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO LIFT NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SRT WAVE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS SCT AND VERY LIGHT. LATER THIS AFTN
EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT PER ALL SRT RANGE MDLS.
INCREASED POPS A BIT NEAR CST AND HAVE CAT LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING FOR CSTL SITES. GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED INLAND WITH UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 COAST. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND OFFSHORE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER TONIGHT. COLD AIR IS CHASING
THE MOISTURE...AND FEEL THAT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID THRU THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S
TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 INDICATE STRONG MID-
LEVEL VORT CENTER TO CROSS THE STATE. BOTH MODELS ALSO PRODUCE
LIGHT QPF TOTALS WITH H8 TEMPS/H8-H7 THICKNESS POINTING TOWARD
SNOW...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS
CLOSE TO 50 IN SPOTS...WILL CALL IT A MIX OF LIGHT RW-/SW-.
POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST GETS RATHER INTERESTING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO IN DEEP H5
TROUGH. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM12 SHOW DEVELOPMENT FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL
QPF ACROSS OUR CWA...THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER LOW MUCH
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IN THE GULF STREAM...IN THE FAVORED LOCATION
TO PROVIDE A THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE ERN HALF. QPF TOTALS FROM THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS NOT BE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...HAVE OPTED TO BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT...BUT SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. AT THIS
POINT...WILL HAVE CHC SW- FOR BASICALLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS BOTH LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF MVFR CONDS A FEW MORE HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST AVIATION GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AND KEPT THAT PORTION OF
THE TAF THE SAME. PREFRONTAL SW FLOW IN THE 6-14KT RANGE TODAY.
PREV DISC...
SW FLOW IS STARTING TO RETURN SOME MOISTURE TO THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BY MID DAY TO AROUND 2-3K FT CEILINGS WITH
RAIN SHOWERS. LOOK FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4 TO 6SM IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY TO IFR UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 06-09Z
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT MON...HOWEVER A STRONG VORT MAX COULD TRIGGER
SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES IN 3-4K FT CLOUD DECK. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN MON NT THROUGH TUE. THE FCST BECOMES TRICKY TUE
AFT/NIGHT AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...THE PROXIMITY OF WHICH TO
THE COAST IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. BY WED NW FLOW WILL DRY THINGS
OUT AGAIN AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PER
LATEST BUOY OBS AND AN 11Z QUIKSCAT PASS. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER WAVE PERIODS INTO THE 4-6S RANGE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH DEVELOPING SW WIND WAVES EXPECTED
TO HAVE MORE IMPACT THAN THE UNDERLYING SMALL ESE SWELL ENERGY.
MAY NEED TO POST LOW END SCA`S AS THIS COMBO WAVE EVENT PEAKS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT BASED ON LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE...BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL 12Z MODEL DATA COMES OUT AND SEE HOW THE DVLPG SW FLOW
MATERIALIZES THRU THE DAY.
PREV DISC...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS IS KEEPING WINDS
VARIABLE...AND IN SOME CASES N...COMPARED TO THE COOLER HIGH PRES
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SW THIS MORNING
AS A LOW SKIRTS BY TO OUR N. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO CREATE SUSTAINED
SCA WINDS TNT...SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE WINDS CAPPED AT 20 KT S OF
OREGON INLET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY MON...BUT A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MON EVENING WILL PICK WINDS UP TO SCA. TUE
IS STILL VERY DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW...OF WHICH
THE ECMWF SHOWS STRENGTHENING OFF CAPE HATTERAS TUE EVENING. THIS
WORSE-CASE SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE...WHICH WOULD
PUT CONDITIONS IN THE STRONG SCA RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH NO SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODELS (AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN) WHICH SHOW DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MARGINAL SCA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. COLD NW WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CHOPPY INTO WED
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT AND
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN SLOWS DOWN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...MW/SJ
MARINE...MW/SJ
000
FXUS62 KMHX 181428
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO LIFT NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SRT WAVE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS SCT AND VERY LIGHT. LATER THIS AFTN
EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT PER ALL SRT RANGE MDLS.
INCREASED POPS A BIT NEAR CST AND HAVE CAT LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING FOR CSTL SITES. GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED INLAND WITH UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 COAST. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
PRECIP WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND OFFSHORE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER TONIGHT. COLD AIR IS CHASING
THE MOISTURE...AND FEEL THAT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID THRU THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S
TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 INDICATE STRONG MID-
LEVEL VORT CENTER TO CROSS THE STATE. BOTH MODELS ALSO PRODUCE
LIGHT QPF TOTALS WITH H8 TEMPS/H8-H7 THICKNESS POINTING TOWARD
SNOW...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS
CLOSE TO 50 IN SPOTS...WILL CALL IT A MIX OF LIGHT RW-/SW-.
POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST GETS RATHER INTERESTING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO IN DEEP H5
TROUGH. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM12 SHOW DEVELOPMENT FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL
QPF ACROSS OUR CWA...THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER LOW MUCH
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IN THE GULF STREAM...IN THE FAVORED LOCATION
TO PROVIDE A THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE ERN HALF. QPF TOTALS FROM THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS NOT BE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...HAVE OPTED TO BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT...BUT SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. AT THIS
POINT...WILL HAVE CHC SW- FOR BASICALLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW IS STARTING TO RETURN SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WITH
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DROP BY MID DAY TO AROUND 2-3K FT CEILINGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. LOOK
FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4 TO 6SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING POSSIBLY TO IFR UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 06-09Z RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TOWARDS MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
MON...HOWEVER A STRONG VORT MAX COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES IN 3-4K FT CLOUD DECK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MON NT
THROUGH TUE. THE FCST BECOMES TRICKY TUE AFT/NIGHT AS A LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...THE PROXIMITY OF WHICH TO THE COAST IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE. BY WED NW FLOW WILL DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN AND
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PER
LATEST BUOY OBS AND AN 11Z QUIKSCAT PASS. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER WAVE PERIODS INTO THE 4-6S RANGE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH DEVELOPING SW WIND WAVES EXPECTED
TO HAVE MORE IMPACT THAN THE UNDERLYING SMALL ESE SWELL ENERGY.
MAY NEED TO POST LOW END SCA`S AS THIS COMBO WAVE EVENT PEAKS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT BASED ON LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE...BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL 12Z MODEL DATA COMES OUT AND SEE HOW THE DVLPG SW FLOW
MATERIALIZES THRU THE DAY.
PREV DISC...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS IS KEEPING WINDS
VARIABLE...AND IN SOME CASES N...COMPARED TO THE COOLER HIGH PRES
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SW THIS MORNING
AS A LOW SKIRTS BY TO OUR N. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO CREATE SUSTAINED
SCA WINDS TNT...SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE WINDS CAPPED AT 20 KT S OF
OREGON INLET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY MON...BUT A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MON EVENING WILL PICK WINDS UP TO SCA. TUE
IS STILL VERY DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW...OF WHICH
THE ECMWF SHOWS STRENGTHENING OFF CAPE HATTERAS TUE EVENING. THIS
WORSE-CASE SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE...WHICH WOULD
PUT CONDITIONS IN THE STRONG SCA RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH NO SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODELS (AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN) WHICH SHOW DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MARGINAL SCA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. COLD NW WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CHOPPY INTO WED
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT AND
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN SLOWS DOWN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...MW/SJ
000
FXUS62 KMHX 180808
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S/SSW. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TODAY...EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MAXES DOWN
A BIT AND HAVE OPTED TO GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN TRENDS
FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 40S MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
PRECIP WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND OFFSHORE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER TONIGHT. COLD AIR IS CHASING
THE MOISTURE...AND FEEL THAT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID THRU THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S
TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 INDICATE STRONG MID-
LEVEL VORT CENTER TO CROSS THE STATE. BOTH MODELS ALSO PRODUCE
LIGHT QPF TOTALS WITH H8 TEMPS/H8-H7 THICKNESS POINTING TOWARD
SNOW...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS
CLOSE TO 50 IN SPOTS...WILL CALL IT A MIX OF LIGHT RW-/SW-.
POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST GETS RATHER INTERESTING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO IN DEEP H5
TROUGH. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM12 SHOW DEVELOPMENT FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL
QPF ACROSS OUR CWA...THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER LOW MUCH
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IN THE GULF STREAM...IN THE FAVORED LOCATION
TO PROVIDE A THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE ERN HALF. QPF TOTALS FROM THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS NOT BE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...HAVE OPTED TO BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT...BUT SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. AT THIS
POINT...WILL HAVE CHC SW- FOR BASICALLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW IS STARTING TO RETURN SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WITH
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DROP BY MID DAY TO AROUND 2-3K FT CEILINGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. LOOK
FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4 TO 6SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING POSSIBLY TO IFR UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 06-09Z RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TOWARDS MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
MON...HOWEVER A STRONG VORT MAX COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES IN 3-4K FT CLOUD DECK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MON NT
THROUGH TUE. THE FCST BECOMES TRICKY TUE AFT/NIGHT AS A LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...THE PROXIMITY OF WHICH TO THE COAST IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE. BY WED NW FLOW WILL DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN AND
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS IS KEEPING WINDS
VARIABLE...AND IN SOME CASES N...COMPARED TO THE COOLER HIGH PRES
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SW THIS MORNING
AS A LOW SKIRTS BY TO OUR N. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO CREATE SUSTAINED
SCA WINDS TNT...SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE WINDS CAPPED AT 20 KT S OF OREGON
INLET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY MON...BUT A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH MON EVENING WILL PICK WINDS UP TO SCA. TUE IS
STILL VERY DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW...OF WHICH THE
ECMWF SHOWS STRENGTHENING OFF CAPE HATTERAS TUE EVENING. THIS
WORSE-CASE SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE...WHICH WOULD
PUT CONDITIONS IN THE STRONG SCA RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH NO SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODELS (AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN) WHICH SHOW DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MARGINAL SCA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. COLD NW WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CHOPPY INTO WED
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT AND
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN SLOWS DOWN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ
000
FXUS62 KMHX 180052
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE W SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA MON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TUE AND MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUE NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W WED AND THU...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR AT PRESENT BUT CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO PUBLIC ZONES THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS SHOW DECENT BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER
SUN AND SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPR SRT WAVE. INIT
MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MDLS SHOW SOME STREAMING NE ESPCLY ERN
SECTIONS LATER SUN AS DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHLD GIVE GOOD
CVRG OF RAIN AND WENT LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CAT SUN EVENING NEAR
CST. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN SHLD LIMIT TEMP RISE WITH
MID/UPR 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CST. AS RAIN ENDS FROM W TO E SUN
NIGHT WILL SEE WEAK CAA AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LATE WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS. APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING
BEFORE ANY COOLER AIR ARRIVES SO KEPT AS ALL RAIN. MON LOOKS QUIET
AND COOL BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SHLD SEE PC SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SHRT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH ERN TRF AND CROSS AREA
TUE. MDLS GENERALLY AGREE SFC DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK AND WELL
OFFSHORE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ATMS IS COLD AND ANY PRECIP THAT
OCCURS WOULD BE SNOW...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL BUT DEEP INLAND SECTION WHERE KEPT DRY. WILL BE
COOL WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40. QUIET WX WED THROUGH FRI AS
DEEP UPR TRF FINALLY SHIFT E WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS RISING TO OR EVEN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE DID NOT ADD ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP YET. TEMPS WILL NOT LOWER MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT
GIVEN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES/VFR AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MID DECK
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CALM CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING MVFR AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT
DRYING THINGS OUT ONCE AGAIN WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE
LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARINE ZONES IN GOOD
SHAPE. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGEST SRLY FLOW
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. ALSO GIVEN COLD
SHELF WATERS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MIXING IN THE SRLY FLOW. CAPPED
WINDS IN LOW 20S IN THE FCST. EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT NOT A STRONG
SURGE OF CAA SO KEPT WINDS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. WITH PERSISTENT
SRLY FLOW SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME 6 FT WAVES CLOSE TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS BUT KEPT WAVES AT 5 FEET IN FCST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A
BIT LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE COAST.
HAVE WINDS JUST INTO SCA CATEGORY THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RSB/HSA
MARINE...RSB/HSA
000
FXUS62 KMHX 172122
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE W SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA MON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TUE AND MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUE NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W WED AND THU...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INIT MCLR SKIES AND LOW DEWPTS WENT
BELOW GDNCE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO
AROUND 30 OBX. TEMPS SHLD DROP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THEN LVL OFF AS
SEE A BIT OF A SW BREEZE DVLP AND LIKELY SOME MORE CLOUDS AS WAA
DVLPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS SHOW DECENT BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER
SUN AND SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPR SRT WAVE. INIT
MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MDLS SHOW SOME STREAMING NE ESPCLY ERN
SECTIONS LATER SUN AS DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHLD GIVE GOOD
CVRG OF RAIN AND WENT LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CAT SUN EVENING NEAR
CST. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN SHLD LIMIT TEMP RISE WITH
MID/UPR 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CST. AS RAIN ENDS FROM W TO E SUN
NIGHT WILL SEE WEAK CAA AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LATE WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS. APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING
BEFORE ANY COOLER AIR ARRIVES SO KEPT AS ALL RAIN. MON LOOKS QUIET
AND COOL BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SHLD SEE PC SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SHRT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH ERN TRF AND CROSS AREA
TUE. MDLS GENERALLY AGREE SFC DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK AND WELL
OFFSHORE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ATMS IS COLD AND ANY PRECIP THAT
OCCURS WOULD BE SNOW...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL BUT DEEP INLAND SECTION WHERE KEPT DRY. WILL BE
COOL WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40. QUIET WX WED THROUGH FRI AS
DEEP UPR TRF FINALLY SHIFT E WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS RISING TO OR EVEN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE DID NOT ADD ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP YET. TEMPS WILL NOT LOWER MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT
GIVEN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT DRYING
THINGS OUT ONCE AGAIN WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE LATE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STRONGEST SRLY FLOW WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
ALSO GIVEN COLD SHELF WATERS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MIXING IN THE SRLY
FLOW. CAPPED WINDS IN LOW 20S IN THE FCST. EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT NOT
A STRONG SURGE OF CAA SO KEPT WINDS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME 6 FT WAVES CLOSE TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS BUT KEPT WAVES AT 5 FEET IN FCST. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFF
THE COAST. HAVE WINDS JUST INTO SCA CATEGORY THIS TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM..RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RSB
MARINE...RSB
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