000
FXUS64 KMEG 201447
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 MILE WILL PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OVER COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE QUICKLY AND TO ALL SURFACES
INCLUDING ROAD SURFACES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS UNDER THESE SNOW BANDS...THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR UP TO ONE INCH. THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS WHERE 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR AS THE
SNOW RATIO VALUES ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH...AROUND 15 TO 1 WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THIS SNOW DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS.
WILL UPDATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING TO
CLEAR SNOW WORDING AS IT COMES TO AN END AND TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE
VALUES IF NEEDED.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KMEM AND KJBR MAINLY
FROM 15Z TO ROUGHLY 22Z. THE CLOUD DECK MAY LIFT ABOVE 3KFT BEFORE
THEN AND MAY PERHAPS STAY ABOVE 3KFT ALTOGETHER. CONFIDENCE QUITE
LOW. QUICK CLEARING WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 37 24 48 35 / 100 0 0 0
MKL 33 18 44 29 / 30 0 0 0
JBR 35 21 45 31 / 30 0 0 0
TUP 37 21 46 29 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MISSISSIPPI.
MO...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DESOTO-MARSHALL-
TATE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR FAYETTE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 201121
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A FEW AREAS OF SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S FOR HIGHS SO ENDED UP CUTTING MAV MOS NUMBERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR LOWS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE EVEN MORE WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE WITH THE
SOLUTION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE GFS SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER. BOTH MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THAN JUST 12 HOURS AGO SO
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP AND AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT
LOOKS TO CUT THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT IN HALF. THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL IMPACT WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION THE AREA CAN EXPECT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW KEPT MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE
AREA...BUT INCLUDED A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR FAR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
KNS
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KMEM AND KJBR MAINLY
FROM 15Z TO ROUGHLY 22Z. THE CLOUD DECK MAY LIFT ABOVE 3KFT BEFORE
THEN AND MAY PERHAPS STAY ABOVE 3KFT ALTOGETHER. CONFIDENCE QUITE
LOW. QUICK CLEARING WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 37 24 48 35 / 10 0 0 0
MKL 33 18 44 29 / 10 0 0 0
JBR 35 21 45 31 / 10 0 0 0
TUP 37 21 46 29 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 201020
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A FEW AREAS OF SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S FOR HIGHS SO ENDED UP CUTTING MAV MOS NUMBERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR LOWS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE EVEN MORE WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE WITH THE
SOLUTION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE GFS SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER. BOTH MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THAN JUST 12 HOURS AGO SO
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP AND AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT
LOOKS TO CUT THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT IN HALF. THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL IMPACT WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION THE AREA CAN EXPECT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW KEPT MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE
AREA...BUT INCLUDED A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR FAR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
KNS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE OR
WITHIN VICINITY AT MKL MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. HOWEVER DIDN/T ADD
MENTION TO MKL FORECAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR/LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND NO EXPECTED IMPACT TO AVIATION
AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY AFTER 09Z...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER
02Z. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 7-8 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 12KTS AFTER 13Z...THEN TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT/CALM AFTER 00Z.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 37 24 48 35 / 10 0 0 0
MKL 33 18 44 29 / 10 0 0 0
JBR 35 21 45 31 / 10 0 0 0
TUP 37 21 46 29 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 200540
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...
WILL INCREASE SNOW CHANCES NORTHEAST OF A UNION CITY TO SAVANNAH
TN AS WELL AS DECREASE LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WILL BE MADE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF A UNION
CITY TO SAVANNAH TN WHERE A DUSTING OF SNOW...LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...
MAY OCCUR.
AT 9 PM CST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
20S NEAR PARIS TN TO LOWER 30S AT MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO AR. CLOUDS
WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING.
REST OF TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND BRING ABUNDANT CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERHAPS
LIGHT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES AND IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.
AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW NEAR THE
TN RIVER...INCLUDING THE PARIS...HUNTINGDON...HENDERSON... AND
SAVANNAH TN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING THE RUC13 INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS....700
MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 70%. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WITH VISIBILITIES 1 TO
3 MILES...A LIGHT ACCUMULATION...UNDER 1/2 INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES OR LESS FOR 1 TO
3 HOURS...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM CST. WILL INCREASE SNOW
CHANCES SLIGHTLY IN THESE AREAS AND MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. NO
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE UNDER AN INCH. DRY LOW LEVELS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME
WHICH MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...INCLUDING MEMPHIS...JONESBORO AR...AND TUPELO MS.
WILL HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 10 PM CST.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WERE REPORTED IN WEST MEMPHIS AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS STRONG.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS
PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -12 TO -14C RANGE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WET BULB OUT ANY
MOISTURE. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FLURRIES ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN FLURRIES AREA WIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF A DYERSBURG TO SOMERVILLE
TENNESSEE LINE. FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING...ALLOWING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS SURFACE WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER TYPE. IF THE LOW TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN
AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN UPCOMING
DAYS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
CCD
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE OR
WITHIN VICINITY AT MKL MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. HOWEVER DIDN/T ADD
MENTION TO MKL FORECAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR/LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND NO EXPECTED IMPACT TO AVIATION
AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY AFTER 09Z...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER
02Z. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 7-8 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 12KTS AFTER 13Z...THEN TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT/CALM AFTER 00Z.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 26 37 27 51 / 10 10 10 0
MKL 23 33 21 46 / 20 10 10 0
JBR 25 37 24 47 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 24 36 22 48 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 200308
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
908 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL INCREASE SNOW CHANCES NORTHEAST OF A UNION CITY TO SAVANNAH
TN AS WELL AS DECREASE LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WILL BE MADE AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF A UNION
CITY TO SAVANNAH TN WHERE A DUSTING OF SNOW...LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...
MAY OCCUR.
AT 9 PM CST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
20S NEAR PARIS TN TO LOWER 30S AT MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO AR. CLOUDS
WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING.
REST OF TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND BRING ABUNDANT CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERHAPS
LIGHT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES AND IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.
AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW NEAR THE
TN RIVER...INCLUDING THE PARIS...HUNTINGDON...HENDERSON... AND
SAVANNAH TN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING THE RUC13 INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS....700
MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 70%. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WITH VISIBILITIES 1 TO
3 MILES...A LIGHT ACCUMULATION...UNDER 1/2 INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES OR LESS FOR 1 TO
3 HOURS...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM CST. WILL INCREASE SNOW
CHANCES SLIGHTLY IN THESE AREAS AND MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. NO
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE UNDER AN INCH. DRY LOW LEVELS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME
WHICH MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...INCLUDING MEMPHIS...JONESBORO AR...AND TUPELO MS.
WILL HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 10 PM CST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WERE REPORTED IN WEST MEMPHIS AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS STRONG.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS
PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -12 TO -14C RANGE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WET BULB OUT ANY
MOISTURE. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FLURRIES ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN FLURRIES AREA WIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF A DYERSBURG TO SOMERVILLE
TENNESSEE LINE. FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING...ALLOWING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS SURFACE WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER TYPE. IF THE LOW TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN
AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN UPCOMING
DAYS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI/IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT MKL AND TUP MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-15Z BUT
DIDN/T ADD MENTION TO MKL/TUP FORECAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR/LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND NO EXPECTED
IMPACT TO AVIATION AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AFTER 07Z.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 28 37 27 51 / 10 10 10 0
MKL 23 33 21 46 / 30 10 10 0
JBR 27 37 24 47 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 25 36 22 48 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 192353
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
553 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WERE REPORTED IN WEST MEMPHIS AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS STRONG.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS
PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -12 TO -14C RANGE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WET BULB OUT ANY
MOISTURE. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FLURRIES ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN FLURRIES AREA WIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF A DYERSBURG TO SOMERVILLE
TENNESSEE LINE. FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING...ALLOWING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS SURFACE WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER TYPE. IF THE LOW TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN
AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN UPCOMING
DAYS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
CCD
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI/IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT MKL AND TUP MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-15Z BUT
DIDN/T ADD MENTION TO MKL/TUP FORECAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR/LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND NO EXPECTED
IMPACT TO AVIATION AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AFTER 07Z.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 28 37 27 51 / 10 10 10 0
MKL 24 33 21 46 / 20 10 10 0
JBR 27 37 24 47 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 26 36 22 48 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 192150
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WERE REPORTED IN WEST MEMPHIS AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS STRONG.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS
PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -12 TO -14C RANGE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WET BULB OUT ANY
MOISTURE. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FLURRIES ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN FLURRIES AREA WIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF A DYERSBURG TO SOMERVILLE
TENNESSEE LINE. FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING...ALLOWING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS SURFACE WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER TYPE. IF THE LOW TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN
AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN UPCOMING
DAYS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SOME MVFR MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT TUP BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
VFR AT TUP BY THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
RESULTING SOME MVFR SKY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY ON TUESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR
AT MKL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 28 37 27 51 / 10 10 10 0
MKL 24 33 21 46 / 20 10 10 0
JBR 27 37 24 47 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 26 36 22 48 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191738
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING
ALLOWING COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AT 16Z...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A COVINGTON TO LEXINGTON TENNESSEE LINE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH THE DAY
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SOME MVFR MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT TUP BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
VFR AT TUP BY THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
RESULTING SOME MVFR SKY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY ON TUESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR
AT MKL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 41 28 38 27 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 36 24 34 21 / 20 20 10 10
JBR 39 27 38 24 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 43 26 37 22 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191609
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1009 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AT 16Z...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COVINGTON TO LEXINGTON TENNESSEE LINE. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH THE DAY MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER.
CCD
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AN H5
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO
THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
SERVICE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO ZONAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JANUARY BY
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
00 UTC GFS DIGS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AS COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO
MORE PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OKULSKI
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD
FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KJBR..KMEM...AND KMKL AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH KTUP AROUND 14Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FT. DECIDED TO TAKE OUT MVFR
CEILINGS AND KEEP ALL LOCATIONS AT VFR BEHIND THE FRONT AS
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF IF AT ALL.
BEYOND 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3500
FT AGL. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED AND WILL GENERALLY BE 7 KTS
OR LESS.
KNS
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 41 28 38 27 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 36 24 34 21 / 20 20 10 10
JBR 39 27 38 24 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 43 26 37 22 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191134
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AN H5
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO
THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
SERVICE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO ZONAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JANUARY BY
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
00 UTC GFS DIGS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AS COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO
MORE PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD
FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KJBR..KMEM...AND KMKL AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH KTUP AROUND 14Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FT. DECIDED TO TAKE OUT MVFR
CEILINGS AND KEEP ALL LOCATIONS AT VFR BEHIND THE FRONT AS
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF IF AT ALL.
BEYOND 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3500
FT AGL. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED AND WILL GENERALLY BE 7 KTS
OR LESS.
KNS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 43 28 38 27 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 38 24 34 21 / 20 20 10 10
JBR 40 27 38 24 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 44 26 37 22 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 190907
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
307 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AN H5
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO
THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
SERVICE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO ZONAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND. TEMPEARTURES WILL WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JANUARY BY
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
00 UTC GFS DIGS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AS COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC ECWMF. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO
MORE PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OKULSKI
&&
AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS...UNDER 8 KTS...WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6000-20000 FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH 10-14Z.
THINK FRONT WILL REACH KJBR AT 10Z...KMEM AND KMKL 11-12Z...
AND KTUP 14Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ALONG
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT. KEPT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT 10-19Z.
BEYOND 19Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CEILINGS WILL BE VFR AROUND
3500 FT AGL.
MBS
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 43 28 38 27 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 38 24 34 21 / 20 20 10 10
JBR 40 27 38 24 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 44 26 37 22 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 190541
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 851 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
METAR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND IOWA HAVE
INDICATED SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT VALUES AVERAGING AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AROUND 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DRESDEN TO JACKSON TO SAVANNAH MAINLY
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADJUST ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 338 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. THE EXCEPTION BEING AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHWARD WHERE PARTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN
TENNESSEE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN BELOW FREEZING WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT.
A DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM -12 TO -15C ACROSS THE AREA. AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL FALL AS
SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH DRY AND MILD THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH TIMING
OF QPF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND TENDS TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND SPREADS QPF
AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS...UNDER 8 KTS...WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6000-20000 FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH 10-14Z.
THINK FRONT WILL REACH KJBR AT 10Z...KMEM AND KMKL 11-12Z...
AND KTUP 14Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ALONG
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT. KEPT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT 10-19Z.
BEYOND 19Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CEILINGS WILL BE VFR AROUND
3500 FT AGL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 34 43 28 38 / 0 10 10 10
MKL 31 38 24 34 / 20 20 20 10
JBR 32 40 27 38 / 0 10 10 10
TUP 32 44 26 37 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 190251
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
851 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
METAR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND IOWA HAVE
INDICATED SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT VALUES AVERAGING AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AROUND 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DRESDEN TO JACKSON TO SAVANNAH MAINLY
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADJUST ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 338 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. THE EXCEPTION BEING AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHWARD WHERE PARTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN
TENNESSEE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN BELOW FREEZING WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT.
A DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM -12 TO -15C ACROSS THE AREA. AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL FALL AS
SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH DRY AND MILD THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH TIMING
OF QPF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND TENDS TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND SPREADS QPF
AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
CCD
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST WINDS...UNDER 8 KTS...CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPED UP THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THINKING
IT WILL REACH KJBR AT 09Z...KMEM AND KMKL 11-12Z...AND KTUP 14Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FT. KEPT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
09-18Z...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THEY WILL FALL TO 2500 FT AGL. BEYOND
18Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CEILINGS WILL BE VFR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 32 43 28 38 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 31 38 24 34 / 10 10 20 10
JBR 30 40 27 38 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 32 44 26 37 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 182338
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
538 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 338 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. THE EXCEPTION BEING AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHWARD WHERE PARTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN
TENNESSEE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN BELOW FREEZING WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT.
A DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM -12 TO -15C ACROSS THE AREA. AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL FALL AS
SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH DRY AND MILD THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH TIMING
OF QPF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND TENDS TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND SPREADS QPF
AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST WINDS...UNDER 8 KTS...CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPED UP THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THINKING
IT WILL REACH KJBR AT 09Z...KMEM AND KMKL 11-12Z...AND KTUP 14Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FT. KEPT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
09-18Z...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THEY WILL FALL TO 2500 FT AGL. BEYOND
18Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CEILINGS WILL BE VFR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 32 43 28 38 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 31 38 24 34 / 10 10 20 10
JBR 30 40 27 38 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 32 44 26 37 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 182138
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE EXCEPTION BEING AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHWARD
WHERE PARTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN
TENNESSEE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN BELOW FREEZING WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT.
A DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM -12 TO -15C ACROSS THE AREA. AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL FALL AS
SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH DRY AND MILD THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH TIMING
OF QPF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND TENDS TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND SPREADS QPF
AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...FIRST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...THEN
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FOLLOWING A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 32 43 28 38 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 31 38 24 34 / 10 10 20 10
JBR 30 40 27 38 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 32 44 26 37 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181734
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY 16Z. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE BOARD AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEAR SKIES. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...FIRST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...THEN
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FOLLOWING A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 53 32 40 28 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 49 29 35 24 / 10 10 10 20
JBR 51 30 37 27 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 52 32 41 26 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181616
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1016 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S BY 16Z. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE BOARD AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLEAR SKIES. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CCD
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
/ISSUED 538 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
THE MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WEATHERWISE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT FRIGID
TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH
MS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PART OF WEST TN WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH LOWER
CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY...AND RAISED THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN JUST TO OUR EAST WITH HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE MID-SOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING AN 850 MB
TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT -13 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MEMPHIS AT 6 AM TUESDAY.
ONE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF WEST TN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW / FLURRIES FOR WEST TN...NORTH AND EAST OF METRO MEMPHIS. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN INTO NORTHEAST
MS...WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. ATTM...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF ANY DOES OCCUR.
LINGERING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST TN
AND NORTH MS TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE MID-SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
CAUSING CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SURFACE WINDS WITH BECOME SOUTHWEST.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DOES LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE THE BEST
TIMEFRAME FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF THE WEEK...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT TIMING
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND GREATER RAIN AMOUNTS. KEPT IN
A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW.
JCL
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN DECK OF 12 KFT AGL WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z. A SCT CLOUD DECK OF 4000 FT AGL
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 16Z ACROSS KJBR...KMEM...KTUP...AND ESPECIALLY
KMKL WHERE MORE OF A BKN DECK CAN BE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS BETWEEN
7 TO 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BUT SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER 00Z.
KNS
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 32 40 28 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 48 29 35 24 / 10 10 10 20
JBR 50 30 37 27 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 53 32 41 26 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181138
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
538 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WEATHERWISE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT FRIGID
TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH
MS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PART OF WEST TN WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH LOWER
CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY...AND RAISED THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN JUST TO OUR EAST WITH HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE MID-SOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING AN 850 MB
TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT -13 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MEMPHIS AT 6 AM TUESDAY.
ONE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF WEST TN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW / FLURRIES FOR WEST TN...NORTH AND EAST OF METRO MEMPHIS. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN INTO NORTHEAST
MS...WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. ATTM...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF ANY DOES OCCUR.
LINGERING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST TN
AND NORTH MS TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE MID-SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
CAUSING CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SURFACE WINDS WITH BECOME SOUTHWEST.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DOES LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE THE BEST
TIMEFRAME FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF THE WEEK...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT TIMING
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND GREATER RAIN AMOUNTS. KEPT IN
A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN DECK OF 12 KFT AGL WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z. A SCT CLOUD DECK OF 4000 FT AGL
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 16Z ACROSS KJBR...KMEM...KTUP...AND ESPECIALLY
KMKL WHERE MORE OF A BKN DECK CAN BE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS BETWEEN
7 TO 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BUT SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER 00Z.
KNS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 32 40 28 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 48 29 35 24 / 10 10 10 20
JBR 50 30 37 27 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 53 32 41 26 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 181030
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
430 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WEATHERWISE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT FRIGID
TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH
MS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PART OF WEST TN WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH LOWER
CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY...AND RAISED THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN JUST TO OUR EAST WITH HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE MID-SOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING AN 850 MB
TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT -13 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MEMPHIS AT 6 AM TUESDAY.
ONE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF WEST TN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW / FLURRIES FOR WEST TN...NORTH AND EAST OF METRO MEMPHIS. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN INTO NORTHEAST
MS...WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. ATTM...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF ANY DOES OCCUR.
LINGERING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST TN
AND NORTH MS TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE MID-SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
CAUSING CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SURFACE WINDS WITH BECOME SOUTHWEST.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DOES LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE THE BEST
TIMEFRAME FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF THE WEEK...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT TIMING
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND GREATER RAIN AMOUNTS. KEPT IN
A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BESIDES MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KJBR THROUGH 15Z...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
MADE BIGGEST CHANGES TO KTUP WHERE APPEARS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CEILINGS MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KTUP...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES ALONG
WITH A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 15Z.
AFTER 15Z...THINK FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL PREVAIL AND
BECOME BKN BY 21Z AT KMKL. THESE VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4000 FT MAY
AFFECT KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 00Z...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO THE WEST
ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
5-10 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS 15Z-23Z SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 32 40 28 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 48 29 35 24 / 10 10 10 20
JBR 50 30 37 27 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 53 32 41 26 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180545
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 902 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES A STACKED UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND TEXAS. SKIES THIS EVENING ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
WEST WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK LESS
FAVORABLE AS NEW 00Z MODEL DATA IS GRADUALLY ARRIVING AND REGIONAL
WSR-88D/SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION THUS FAR. SHORT
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY OVERALL TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO LOWER/REMOVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER ELEMENTS AS
NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG INTERSTATE 40. CLOUDS
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ARE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THERE IS
SUNSHINE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. FORCING FROM THIS FRONT IS LIMITED BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WET-BULB DOWN...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR ALOFT. LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER AROUND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SUNDAY MIDDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTLOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10
TO -12C THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
DISAGREE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF HOWEVER
DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS
THE AREA CLEAR OF QPF BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE SETTLING OVER
THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...USED A BLEND AND BROAD-BRUSHED
THE AREA WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
BESIDES MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KJBR THROUGH 15Z...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
MADE BIGGEST CHANGES TO KTUP WHERE APPEARS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CEILINGS MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KTUP...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES ALONG
WITH A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 15Z.
AFTER 15Z...THINK FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL PREVAIL AND
BECOME BKN BY 21Z AT KMKL. THESE VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4000 FT MAY
AFFECT KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 00Z...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO THE WEST
ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
5-10 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS 15Z-23Z SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 44 27 43 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 32 40 23 38 / 10 10 20 10
JBR 32 42 28 41 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 37 46 29 43 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180302
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
902 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES A STACKED UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND TEXAS. SKIES THIS EVENING ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
WEST WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK LESS
FAVORABLE AS NEW 00Z MODEL DATA IS GRADUALLY ARRIVING AND REGIONAL
WSR-88D/SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION THUS FAR. SHORT
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY OVERALL TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO LOWER/REMOVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER ELEMENTS AS
NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG INTERSTATE 40. CLOUDS
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ARE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THERE IS
SUNSHINE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. FORCING FROM THIS FRONT IS LIMITED BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WET-BULB DOWN...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR ALOFT. LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER AROUND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SUNDAY MIDDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTLOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10
TO -12C THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
DISAGREE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF HOWEVER
DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS
THE AREA CLEAR OF QPF BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE SETTLING OVER
THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...USED A BLEND AND BROAD-BRUSHED
THE AREA WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
CCD
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
CEILINGS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
THINK KMEM AND KMKL WILL CLEAR OUT AND BECOME VFR IN THE 04-05Z
TIME RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST. CEILINGS AT KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR
AND TO IFR 06-12Z WITH 800 FT AGL CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KTUP IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
REMAINING QUITE DRY...SO WILL AMEND IF THESE LOW CEILINGS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED AT KJBR. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS...THOUGH
CEILINGS 4000-5000 FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KMKL AFTER 18Z.
USED VCSH AT KTUP 03-12Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND.
DO NOT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THIS SITE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN 04-09Z AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 KTS. THESE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 34 44 27 43 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 31 40 23 38 / 20 10 20 10
JBR 29 42 28 41 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 37 46 29 43 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 172341
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG INTERSTATE 40. CLOUDS
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ARE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THERE IS
SUNSHINE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. FORCING FROM THIS FRONT IS LIMITED BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WET-BULB DOWN...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR ALOFT. LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER AROUND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SUNDAY MIDDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTLOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10
TO -12C THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
DISAGREE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF HOWEVER
DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS
THE AREA CLEAR OF QPF BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE SETTLING OVER
THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...USED A BLEND AND BROAD-BRUSHED
THE AREA WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
CEILINGS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
THINK KMEM AND KMKL WILL CLEAR OUT AND BECOME VFR IN THE 04-05Z
TIME RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST. CEILINGS AT KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR
AND TO IFR 06-12Z WITH 800 FT AGL CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KTUP IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
REMAINING QUITE DRY...SO WILL AMEND IF THESE LOW CEILINGS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED AT KJBR. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS...THOUGH
CEILINGS 4000-5000 FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KMKL AFTER 18Z.
USED VCSH AT KTUP 03-12Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND.
DO NOT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THIS SITE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN 04-09Z AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 KTS. THESE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 34 44 27 43 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 31 40 23 38 / 20 10 20 10
JBR 29 42 28 41 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 37 46 29 43 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 172201
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG INTERSTATE 40. CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ARE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THERE IS SUNSHINE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. FORCING FROM THIS FRONT IS LIMITED BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WET-BULB DOWN...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR ALOFT. LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER AROUND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SUNDAY MIDDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTLOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10
TO -12C THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
DISAGREE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF HOWEVER
DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS
THE AREA CLEAR OF QPF BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE SETTLING OVER
THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...USED A BLEND AND BROAD-BRUSHED
THE AREA WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEARLY 06Z. WINDS OF 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 28KTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KTUP AND A
RETURN TO MVFR FOR KJBR AND KMKL BY SUNRISE. BELIEVE THAT KMEM
WILL BE VFR AFTER 06Z.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 34 44 27 43 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 31 40 23 38 / 20 10 20 10
JBR 29 42 28 41 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 37 46 29 43 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 172155
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG INTERSTATE 40. CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ARE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THERE IS SUNSHINE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. FORCING FROM THIS FRONT IS LIMITED BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WET-BULB DOWN...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR ALOFT. LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER AROUND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SUNDAY MIDDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTLOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10
TO -12C THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
DISAGREE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF HOWEVER
DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS
THE AREA CLEAR OF QPF BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE SETTLING OVER
THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...USED A BLEND AND BROAD-BRUSHED
THE AREA WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 34 44 27 43 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 31 40 23 38 / 20 10 20 10
JBR 29 42 28 41 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 37 46 29 43 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171840
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THIS
LINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
AREAS THAT ARE RECEIVING SUNSHINE. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO AIDE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY. ADJUSTED
DAYTIME HIGHS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEARLY 06Z. WINDS OF 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 28KTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KTUP AND A
RETURN TO MVFR FOR KJBR AND KMKL BY SUNRISE. BELIEVE THAT KMEM
WILL BE VFR AFTER 06Z.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 48 34 45 26 / 20 30 10 10
MKL 43 31 41 22 / 20 30 10 10
JBR 46 29 43 24 / 10 20 10 10
TUP 43 37 47 28 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
