000
FXUS64 KMAF 201736
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP KEEP STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS AT BAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO WEAK
AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE GOING SOUTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KMAF 201134
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
534 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MEXICO WILL BE
KEPT AT BAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE THE CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH AND
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE REMAIN. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL FLATTEN THE FLOW AND ALLOW FOR THIS MOISTURE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN IN TRANSIT EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES...
AND STAY THAT WAY THURSDAY DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION THURSDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A VERY GOOD CHANCE WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND NO
STRONG UPPER JET TO ACCOMPANY THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MOST OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE CONUS WAS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT BATCH ONLY MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS INTO CANADA BY LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW MAY
PREVENT THIS COLDER AIR FROM RUSHING INTO THE AREA INITIALLY...SO
HAVE TENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THOUGH AS THE AIRMASS WILL
BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN AND WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CONUS. THE CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD THOUGH AS MOISTURE REMAINS SCANT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
21/67
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200950
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
350 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MEXICO WILL BE
KEPT AT BAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE THE CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH AND
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE REMAIN. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL FLATTEN THE FLOW AND ALLOW FOR THIS MOISTURE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN IN TRANSIT EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES...
AND STAY THAT WAY THURSDAY DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION THURSDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A VERY GOOD CHANCE WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND NO
STRONG UPPER JET TO ACCOMPANY THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MOST OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE CONUS WAS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT BATCH ONLY MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS INTO CANADA BY LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW MAY
PREVENT THIS COLDER AIR FROM RUSHING INTO THE AREA INITIALLY...SO
HAVE TENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THOUGH AS THE AIRMASS WILL
BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN AND WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CONUS. THE CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD THOUGH AS MOISTURE REMAINS SCANT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 62 33 78 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 67 29 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 68 36 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 65 42 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 37 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 64 28 77 35 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 62 24 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 63 31 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 64 32 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 67 28 80 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
21/67
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200535
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT A FEW CIRRUS...BUT SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE WINDS AT KCNM AND KPEQ MAY BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEAR THESE TWO
TERMINALS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192339
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS
EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
BREEZY NEAR THE KMAF AND KINK TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT MAJOR GUSTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET. A FEW
CIRRUS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.
THESE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACRS THE PLAINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE TO THE W. THIS PATTERN FAVORS PASSING SHRTWV TROF/S WITH
ASSOCD COLD FRONTS MOVING S THRU W TX/SE NM. ONCE SUCH RE-
ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING WITH ONLY AFFECT BEING TO INCREASE N-NW
WINDS AND HOLD DRY AIR IN PLACE. MAY STILL BE ENUF OF A MSLP
GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP TONIGHT AND MET GUIDANCE MAY BE LITTLE
TOO COOL. MORE OF THE SAME TUE BUT WITH COOLING. TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. BY WEDNESDAY AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED EWD AND WILL BE OVERHEAD. 5H HGHTS WILL
RISE AND 85H THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ALONG A MODEST LEE TROF
WHILE DWPNTS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 DEGREES F...ALL SIGNALING TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE 70S. MEANWHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL BE TRANSITIONING AND BY THURSDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE
BROKEN DOWN/MOVED E WHILE UPPER LOW OF SRN CALIF COAST FILLS AND
MOVE E. DOES LOOK LIKE AT LEAST MID LEVEL MSTR WILL BE ENTRAINED
INTO FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF WITH MODELS DEVELOPING PRECIP ACRS
DESERT SW THURSDAY. BELIEVE THERE WILL ENUF LIFT/MSTR FOR LOW
LEVEL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE W/SW CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
OCCUR (ESPECIALLY HIER ELEVATIONS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WLY
SFC-LOW LEVEL COMPONENT WILL IN GENERAL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE MEASURABLE PRECIP. IT WILL STILL BE UNSEASONALLY
WARM THURSDAY DESPITE INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHRTWV
TROF AS 85H THERMAL MOVES E ACRS PB. MSLP GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT
ENUF TO KEEP WINDS UP INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND MORNING LOWS WILL
TEND TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE. AS SHRTWV TROF PASSES FRIDAY COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW AS SFC LOW MOVES TO E. THUS COOLER
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NE WHERE 85H TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 8C. SFC RIDGE
AXIS SAT MORNING AND DWPNTS 30F OR LESS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TEMPS
TO COOL CLOSER TO FREEZING AS SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR.
WARMER PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS SAT-MON AS BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING
GIVES WAY TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW BY MON. 85H THERMAL RIDGE WOULD
HAVE AMPLE TIME TO AMPLIFY WITH SE COLORADO SFC LOW FORMING. THIS
WILL ALSO TEND TO SUPPORT SOME WIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE MONDAY WITH GFS SHOWING A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE W COAST AND ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE...HIER
DWPNTS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE E OF THE CWFA.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
78
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192009
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACRS THE PLAINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE TO THE W. THIS PATTERN FAVORS PASSING SHRTWV TROF/S WITH
ASSOCD COLD FRONTS MOVING S THRU W TX/SE NM. ONCE SUCH RE-
ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING WITH ONLY AFFECT BEING TO INCREASE N-NW
WINDS AND HOLD DRY AIR IN PLACE. MAY STILL BE ENUF OF A MSLP
GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP TONIGHT AND MET GUIDANCE MAY BE LITTLE
TOO COOL. MORE OF THE SAME TUE BUT WITH COOLING. TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. BY WEDNESDAY AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED EWD AND WILL BE OVERHEAD. 5H HGHTS WILL
RISE AND 85H THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ALONG A MODEST LEE TROF
WHILE DWPNTS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 DEGREES F...ALL SIGNALING TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE 70S. MEANWHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL BE TRANSITIONING AND BY THURSDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE
BROKEN DOWN/MOVED E WHILE UPPER LOW OF SRN CALIF COAST FILLS AND
MOVE E. DOES LOOK LIKE AT LEAST MID LEVEL MSTR WILL BE ENTRAINED
INTO FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF WITH MODELS DEVELOPING PRECIP ACRS
DESERT SW THURSDAY. BELIEVE THERE WILL ENUF LIFT/MSTR FOR LOW
LEVEL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE W/SW CWFA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
OCCUR (ESPECIALLY HIER ELEVATIONS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WLY
SFC-LOW LEVEL COMPONENT WILL IN GENERAL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE MEASURABLE PRECIP. IT WILL STILL BE UNSEASONALLY
WARM THURSDAY DESPITE INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHRTWV
TROF AS 85H THERMAL MOVES E ACRS PB. MSLP GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT
ENUF TO KEEP WINDS UP INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND MORNING LOWS WILL
TEND TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE. AS SHRTWV TROF PASSES FRIDAY COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW AS SFC LOW MOVES TO E. THUS COOLER
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NE WHERE 85H TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 8C. SFC RIDGE
AXIS SAT MORNING AND DWPNTS 30F OR LESS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TEMPS
TO COOL CLOSER TO FREEZING AS SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR.
WARMER PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS SAT-MON AS BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING
GIVES WAY TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW BY MON. 85H THERMAL RIDGE WOULD
HAVE AMPLE TIME TO AMPLIFY WITH SE COLORADO SFC LOW FORMING. THIS
WILL ALSO TEND TO SUPPORT SOME WIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE MONDAY WITH GFS SHOWING A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE W COAST AND ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE...HIER
DWPNTS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE E OF THE CWFA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 32 63 31 77 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 33 67 29 75 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 39 69 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 34 66 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 38 63 28 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 31 64 27 77 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 27 62 24 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 32 64 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 33 64 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 32 67 28 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191732
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1132 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS KMAF DURING
THE INITIAL PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS KMAF...WHILE OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
531 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL GUST TO 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
WEST AND DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEAVING
WEST TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT. THE SECOND WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
DROPPING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK UP
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.
THE DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. IT APPEARS
THE GFS MAY FINALLY HAVE TAKEN ONE FROM THE ECMWF AS THE LATEST
EUROPEAN 500MB PROGS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LOCK STEP WITH THE 00Z
GFS. OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD SHOWING THE UPPER LOW LOSING
STRENGTH AND OPENING UP AS A WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND TEXAS. THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW IT TO PROGRESS
RATHER QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THE SURFACE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF ON A WEAKER FRONT
UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS HAS HANDLED THE UPPER LEVELS
WELL...I DO NOT LIKE THE SURFACE SOLUTION. IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE
TO HOLD OFF FROPA SO LONG AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED
EAST AND LIKE THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF
MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE COOLING GIVEN THE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW NOT BEING CONDUCIVE TO SENDING A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR
THIS FAR SOUTH. THEREFORE CREATED THE MAX T FORECAST FRI AND SAT
USING THE NOGAPS H85 TEMPS AND TIMING WHICH WERE PRETTY MUCH AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT STILL UNDERCUTS THE MEX PRETTY GOOD BOTH FRI
AND SAT.
THE WEAKER UPPER TROUGH MEANS LESS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT PRECIP THU
AND FRI. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MUCH LESS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT POST FRONTAL ON FRIDAY MEANS MODEL
QPF AMOUNTS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISAPPEARED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO JUMP
ON THE BAND WAGON AND REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LOW AND DO NOT SEE IT AS ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT SOME ATTENTION
WILL NEED TO BE PAID TO THURSDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME RH/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15
TO 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH DO NOT SUPPORT AN
RFW...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE GETTING CLOSE AND A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190933
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
333 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEAVING
WEST TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT. THE SECOND WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
DROPPING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK UP
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.
THE DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. IT APPEARS
THE GFS MAY FINALLY HAVE TAKEN ONE FROM THE ECMWF AS THE LATEST
EUROPEAN 500MB PROGS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LOCK STEP WITH THE 00Z
GFS. OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD SHOWING THE UPPER LOW LOSING
STRENGTH AND OPENING UP AS A WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND TEXAS. THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW IT TO PROGRESS
RATHER QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THE SURFACE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF ON A WEAKER FRONT
UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS HAS HANDLED THE UPPER LEVELS
WELL...I DO NOT LIKE THE SURFACE SOLUTION. IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE
TO HOLD OFF FROPA SO LONG AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED
EAST AND LIKE THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF
MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE COOLING GIVEN THE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW NOT BEING CONDUCIVE TO SENDING A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR
THIS FAR SOUTH. THEREFORE CREATED THE MAX T FORECAST FRI AND SAT
USING THE NOGAPS H85 TEMPS AND TIMING WHICH WERE PRETTY MUCH AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT STILL UNDERCUTS THE MEX PRETTY GOOD BOTH FRI
AND SAT.
THE WEAKER UPPER TROUGH MEANS LESS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT PRECIP THU
AND FRI. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MUCH LESS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT POST FRONTAL ON FRIDAY MEANS MODEL
QPF AMOUNTS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISAPPEARED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO JUMP
ON THE BAND WAGON AND REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LOW AND DO NOT SEE IT AS ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT SOME ATTENTION
WILL NEED TO BE PAID TO THURSDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME RH/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15
TO 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH DO NOT SUPPORT AN
RFW...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE GETTING CLOSE AND A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 72 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 72 32 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 74 34 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 72 29 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 65 37 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 71 29 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 64 25 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 70 32 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 70 32 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 74 32 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/10
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190525
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1125 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROUTES BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03
000
FXUS64 KMAF 182330
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03
000
FXUS64 KMAF 182042
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
242 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALING A WELL PRONOUNCED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION FROM A
PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
FEATURE HAS ENSURED WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO DEPICT
SOME HIGH CI STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PASSING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. CAN EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY
PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALOFT. ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS THE NATION REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH EXTENSION INTO
WESTERN CANADA...AND A DEEP POLAR VORTEX SPINNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OUR REGION REMAINS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE
PRESENT TIME RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK WINDS ALOFT AS EVIDENT ON
THE 12 KMAF SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISS RVR VLY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS
ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY SUGGESTS SOME WEAK COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
POTENTIAL. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE IN-BETWEEN FWC MOS NUMBERS
AS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS AS THE MET APPEARS TOO COOL AND THE
MAV TO WARM. MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY/S. THERE
MAY BE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IS EXPECTED
EARLY TUES. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS TROUGH/WEAK FRONT AND
FALLING H85 TEMPS SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED BY WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BROUGHT RECORD BREAKING WARMTH TO THE WEST FINALLY BEGINS
BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT DOES SO...A WELL
DEFINED H85 THERMAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA AND THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING WED AND THU AFTERNOON SUGGESTS LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE REGION. HAVE WARMED TEMPS
APPRECIABLY ACROSS MANY AREAS...AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR WARMER TEMPS
THAT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY CURRENT MEX GUIDANCE.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DETERIORATE BY THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WORK WEEK AS OPERATIONAL MID RANGE PROGS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER CUT-OFF LOW/TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT. ALONG THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DESCEND INTO THE WESTERN RED RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRI. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH A WELL PRONOUNCED
H85 THERMAL RIDGE INDICATES CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THU
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...ORIENTED MAINLY ALONG A KANS...TO KFST
LINE...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND. THUS EVEN
WARMER TEMPS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE QUICKEST SOLUTION AS IT QUICKLY EJECTS TO UPPER WAVE TO THE
EAST BY FRI EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLOWER
SOLUTION...WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT FROM THE 12 CANADIAN
GEM...THOUGH AT THE END OF ITS TIME RANGE. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRI MORNING...WHICH
WILL BE PROPELLED BY SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST ON FRI
AS SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IN OUT
THE 40S WHILE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. THAT
SAID...PACIFIC MOISTURE IN EMBEDDED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO OVERRUN THE UNDERLYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SETTING THE STAGE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS WANING AS THE 12Z ECMWF JUST ARRIVED AND IS NOW
DEPICTING A FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CLOSER
IN SUPPORT OF THE GFS. FOR NOW...WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT WFOS FOR BASICALLY FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
WAY TO EARLY TO GET EXCITED ESPECIALLY SINCE MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IS LACKING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 32 72 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 29 71 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 38 73 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 39 75 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 41 65 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 30 72 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 28 66 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 31 71 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 31 70 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 32 76 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181719
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1119 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W/NW WINDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS DUE TO WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM SW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MAINLY FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.
12
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN A DRY AND WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
THIS UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA CAUSING LITTLE MORE THAN PULLING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THERE IS VERY POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS SITUATION EVOLVES...AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. I FEEL THE BEST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE UK/NOGAPS/ECMWF WITH A STRONG OPEN TROUGH MOVING
AT A MODERATE PACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS TOO WEAK WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE QUICKLY SHOOTING IT OFF TO
THE EAST WITH A WEAK ACCOMPANYING FRONT. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED
WAY TOO STRONG BRINGING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
WAS DISCOUNTED...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW AND NOW HAS A PREFERRED OPEN WAVE. THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE MAY BE A TAD TOO SLOW BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER THAN THE VERY FAST
GFS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE REMOVED FROM THE DOMINANT NORTHERLY JET AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED
FROPA MAY BE LACKING IN STRONG CAA. FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS
MUCH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SECOND VORT MAX MOVING DOWN OUT THE PAC NW WHICH IF IT MATCHES UP
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CA COULD HELP BRING
SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE POP FORECAST IS INTERESTING AT THIS TIME WITH THE FAVORED 00Z
ECMWF BREAKING OUT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH IT MOISTENING UP THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAKING PRECIP FAVORABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD CAUSE
PRECIP TO BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LET US NOT FORGET THE DRY SPELL WE
HAVE BEEN UNDER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE
MODELS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THAT FAR OUT I
CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP YET...AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE VERY LOW QPF. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST YET AS I WOULD PREFER NOT TO
GET THE PUBLIC WORKED UP ABOUT A FEW SHOWERS BRINGING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MAINLY FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN A DRY AND WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
THIS UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA CAUSING LITTLE MORE THAN PULLING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THERE IS VERY POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS SITUATION EVOLVES...AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. I FEEL THE BEST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE UK/NOGAPS/ECMWF WITH A STRONG OPEN TROUGH MOVING
AT A MODERATE PACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS TOO WEAK WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE QUICKLY SHOOTING IT OFF TO
THE EAST WITH A WEAK ACCOMPANYING FRONT. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED
WAY TOO STRONG BRINGING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
WAS DISCOUNTED...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW AND NOW HAS A PREFERRED OPEN WAVE. THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE MAY BE A TAD TOO SLOW BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER THAN THE VERY FAST
GFS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE REMOVED FROM THE DOMINANT NORTHERLY JET AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED
FROPA MAY BE LACKING IN STRONG CAA. FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS
MUCH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SECOND VORT MAX MOVING DOWN OUT THE PAC NW WHICH IF IT MATCHES UP
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CA COULD HELP BRING
SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE POP FORECAST IS INTERESTING AT THIS TIME WITH THE FAVORED 00Z
ECMWF BREAKING OUT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH IT MOISTENING UP THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAKING PRECIP FAVORABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD CAUSE
PRECIP TO BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LET US NOT FORGET THE DRY SPELL WE
HAVE BEEN UNDER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE
MODELS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THAT FAR OUT I
CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP YET...AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE VERY LOW QPF. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST YET AS I WOULD PREFER NOT TO
GET THE PUBLIC WORKED UP ABOUT A FEW SHOWERS BRINGING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/10
000
FXUS64 KMAF 180930
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
330 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANT FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN A DRY AND WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
THIS UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA CAUSING LITTLE MORE THAN PULLING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THERE IS VERY POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS SITUATION EVOLVES...AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. I FEEL THE BEST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE UK/NOGAPS/ECMWF WITH A STRONG OPEN TROUGH MOVING
AT A MODERATE PACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS TOO WEAK WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE QUICKLY SHOOTING IT OFF TO
THE EAST WITH A WEAK ACCOMPANYING FRONT. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED
WAY TOO STRONG BRINGING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
WAS DISCOUNTED...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW AND NOW HAS A PREFERRED OPEN WAVE. THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE MAY BE A TAD TOO SLOW BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER THAN THE VERY FAST
GFS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE REMOVED FROM THE DOMINANT NORTHERLY JET AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED
FROPA MAY BE LACKING IN STRONG CAA. FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS
MUCH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SECOND VORT MAX MOVING DOWN OUT THE PAC NW WHICH IF IT MATCHES UP
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CA COULD HELP BRING
SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE POP FORECAST IS INTERESTING AT THIS TIME WITH THE FAVORED 00Z
ECMWF BREAKING OUT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH IT MOISTENING UP THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAKING PRECIP FAVORABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD CAUSE
PRECIP TO BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LET US NOT FORGET THE DRY SPELL WE
HAVE BEEN UNDER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE
MODELS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THAT FAR OUT I
CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP YET...AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE VERY LOW QPF. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST YET AS I WOULD PREFER NOT TO
GET THE PUBLIC WORKED UP ABOUT A FEW SHOWERS BRINGING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 69 34 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 68 32 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 34 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 30 74 31 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 31 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 69 32 72 28 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 61 25 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 68 34 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 68 34 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 69 32 77 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/10
000
FXUS64 KMAF 180528
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
PRESENTLY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW NW-N SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SW-W SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT..AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUALLY WIND SHIFT BACK TO SW-W IS EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03
000
FXUS64 KMAF 172334
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
534 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT..AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUALLY WIND SHIFT BACK TO SW-W IS EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03
000
FXUS64 KMAF 172049
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT LINE/PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG A SNK/ANS/CNM LINE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
THE NORTH FOLLOWING PASSAGE...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER IN
BEHIND AS EVIDENT ON UPSTREAM OBS. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
NORTH INTO WESTERN CANADA. WITH TIME TONIGHT...CAN EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NOSES
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL SET UP NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH
COMPLICATES THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL. WITH RATHER DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH RATHER WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS...HAVE TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARDS
THE COOLER MET MOS NUMBERS.
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY...THUS NO APPRECIABLE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTED BY AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOMORROW WITH MIXING
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST H80. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. DOWNSLOPE AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE...LIKELY
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. THUS HAVE
SIDED WITH THE WARMER FWC/MAV NUMBERS FOR TOMORROW/S LOWS.
SMALL WARM UP EXPECTED BY MONDAY WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TUE MORNING. AS A RESULT...SFC
FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME NORTHERLY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT VERY WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN WORKING.
OVER THE REGION ON WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PAC NW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO EXTEND TO THE
SURFACE AND THUS HAVE WARMED TEMPS BASED ON GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF H85 TEMPS.
EXTENDED (THU-SAT)
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO PRESENT THEMSELVES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY ON HOW THE ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SPLIT FLOW
WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
OFF THE BAJA CA COAST BY THU. WITH TIME...THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION AND INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. GFS REMAINS THE FASTER
SOLUTION WITH BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURE AND UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH
IT SUGGESTING WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY FRI MORNING WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS FEATURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH A QUICKER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AS ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
EARLIER THAT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED VIA 00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FOR
NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO USE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BASED ON PREFERENCE FROM HPC AND SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WITH THAT
SAID...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION ON FRI
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT
PRECIP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASED VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT...HOWEVER MAIN UPPER
DIVERGENCE FIELDS WILL REMAIN CENTERED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE
MAX UPPER WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. QUICK LOOK AT INCOMING 12Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO HOWEVER THE LATTER SOLUTION INDICATES
A MUCH DEEPER PASSING WAVE AS OPPOSED TO THE EARLIER 00Z RUN. HAVE
DECIDED TO INCREASE BOTH POPS AND CLOUD COVER BEGINNING THU NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE IN ADVANCE OF MAIN WAVE. HAVE HELD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION
FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS FOR MORE
CONSISTENCY HOWEVER LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO POINT AT A
DECENT PRECIP POTENTIAL.
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MON-WED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE AS UNSEASONAL WARM WX WILL CONTINUE
AND MIN RH/S OF 10-15 PCT WILL BE POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL HGHT GRADIENTS
AND MSLP GRADIENT ARE NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 29 69 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 25 68 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 39 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 36 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 36 61 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 26 66 29 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 27 63 25 67 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 28 69 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 29 69 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 27 72 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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