000
FXUS66 KLOX 201221
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 AM PST TUE JAN 20 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN
WRAPPED UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT A MB MORE
ONSHORE THAN YDY AND SINCE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL OR THERMAL
SUPPORT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CANYON WINDS THIS
MORNING. HGTS FALL SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FROM YDYS TEMPS...BUT STILL TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
OVER SPREAD THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OUTER WATERS LATE.

THE UPPER LOW SITS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY AND
DRIVES MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE RAIN WILL BE RATHER SLOW SO L.A. COUNTY WILL SEE THE LEAST
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SBA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SOME RAIN CHC DEVELOPING BUT THE COUNTY WILL BE
SPARED THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTION PACKED AS THE TROF IS
FORECAST TO KICK OUT AND BEGIN ITS MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS WILL BE A PRIMELY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION STORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF
DRAMATICALLY AS ONE PROCEEDS NORTH FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO NORTHERN
SLO COUNTY. RAIN LOOKS PRETTY CERTAIN OVER SOUTHERN SBA AND VTA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING AND THEN L.A COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE RESORT
LEVELS.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST TO EAST AS
THE TROF EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. L.A. COUNTY WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE RAIN DURING THE MORNING.

EARLIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A HALF TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IN THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS AND 1 TO 2 LOCALLY 2 AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF
A EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS HAPPENS THE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE GREATLY CURTAILED. STILL PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES WITH SOUTH FLOW SYSTEMS CAN BE IMPRESSIVE AND THIS
STORM WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW SURPRISES IN STORE FOR ALL OF US.

.LONG TERM...
EC AND GFS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT ALL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FOLLOWED THE EC FOR THE FORECAST ONLY BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN PREFORMING
BETTER OF LATE. IN GENERAL HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY ON.

THE LITTLE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN LONG ENOUGH INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP ANY
RAIN AT BAY. LOW LEVEL PROGS SHOW A DECENT EDDY AND MARINE LAYER FOR
THE MORNING OVER THE L.A. AND VENTURA CSTS AND VLYS. TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE LOW.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THE EC BRINGS LOW THROUGH THE AREA.
IT IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE STORM BUT IT IS WORTHY OF SLGT CHC TO A CHC
OF RAIN. IT MUST BE NOTED HERE THAT THE GFS RETROGRADES THE LOW WELL
TO THE WEST AND FORECASTS A WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS.

DRIER NW FLOW SHOULD SET UP LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND DECREASE
BOTH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

20/1200Z

PROBLEM FREE FLYING WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 201215
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST TUE JAN 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN
WRAPPED UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT A MB MORE
ONSHORE THAN YDY AND SINCE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL OR THERMAL
SUPPORT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CANYON WINDS THIS
MORNING. HGTS FALL SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FROM YDYS TEMPS...BUT STILL TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
OVER SPREAD THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OUTER WATERS LATE.

THE UPPER LOW SITS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY AND
DRIVES MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE RAIN WILL BE RATHER SLOW SO L.A. COUNTY WILL SEE THE LEAST
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SBA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SOME RAIN CHC DEVELOPING BUT THE COUNTY WILL BE
SPARED THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTION PACKED AS THE TROF IS
FORECAST TO KICK OUT AND BEGIN ITS MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS WILL BE A PRIMELY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION STORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF
DRAMATICALLY AS ONE PROCEEDS NORTH FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO NORTHERN
SLO COUNTY. RAIN LOOKS PRETTY CERTAIN OVER SOUTHERN SBA AND VTA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING AND THEN L.A COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE RESORT
LEVELS.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST TO EAST AS
THE TROF EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. L.A. COUNTY WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE RAIN DURING THE MORNING.

EARLIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A HALF TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IN THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS AND 1 TO 2 LOCALLY 2 AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF
A EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS HAPPENS THE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE GREATLY CURTAILED. STILL PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES WITH SOUTH FLOW SYSTEMS CAN BE IMPRESSIVE AND THIS
STORM WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW SURPRISES IN STORE FOR ALL OF US.

.LONG TERM...
EC AND GFS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT ALL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FOLLOWED THE EC FOR THE FORECAST ONLY BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN PREFORMING
BETTER OF LATE. IN GENERAL HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY ON.

THE LITTLE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN LONG ENOUGH INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP ANY
RAIN AT BAY. LOW LEVEL PROGS SHOW A DECENT EDDY AND MARINE LAYER FOR
THE MORNING OVER THE L.A. AND VENTURA CSTS AND VLYS. TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE LOW.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THE EC BRINGS LOW THROUGH THE AREA.
IT IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE STORM BUT IT IS WORTHY OF SLGT CHC TO A CHC
OF RAIN. IT MUST BE NOTED HERE THAT THE GFS RETROGRADES THE LOW WELL
TO THE WEST AND FORECASTS A WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS.

DRIER NW FLOW SHOULD SET UP LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND DECREASE
BOTH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

20/1200Z.

KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 201205
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST TUE JAN 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN
WRAPPED UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT A MB MORE
ONSHORE THAN YDY AND SINCE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL OR THERMAL
SUPPORT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CANYON WINDS THIS
MORNING. HGTS FALL SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FROM YDYS TEMPS...BUT STILL TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
OVER SPREAD THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OUTER WATERS LATE.

THE UPPER LOW SITS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY AND
DRIVES MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE RAIN WILL BE RATHER SLOW SO L.A. COUNTY WILL SEE THE LEAST
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SBA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SOME RAIN CHC DEVELOPING BUT THE COUNTY WILL BE
SPARED THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTION PACKED AS THE TROF IS
FORECAST TO KICK OUT AND BEGIN ITS MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS WILL BE A PRIMELY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION STORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF
DRAMATICALLY AS ONE PROCEEDS NORTH FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO NORTHERN
SLO COUNTY. RAIN LOOKS PRETTY CERTAIN OVER SOUTHERN SBA AND VTA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING AND THEN L.A COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE RESORT
LEVELS.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST TO EAST AS
THE TROF EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. L.A. COUNTY WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE RAIN DURING THE MORNING.

EARLIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A HALF TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IN THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS AND 1 TO 2 LOCALLY 2 AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF
A EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS HAPPENS THE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE GREATLY CURTAILED. STILL PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES WITH SOUTH FLOW SYSTEMS CAN BE IMPRESSIVE AND THIS
STORM WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW SURPRISES IN STORE FOR ALL OF US.

.LONG TERM...

...WORKING ON IT...

&&

.AVIATION...

20/1200Z.

KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 200514
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST MON JAN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY)

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS CONTINUED TO BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AS EXPECTED...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES REACHED ITS 9TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH THE HIGH TEMP REACHING OR EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES
WITH A READING OF 82 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH THAT IMPEDED HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY...THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WAS NOT AFFECTED DUE TO THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PASSES AND
CANYONS. EXPECT NE TO E WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW OF THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...SUCH AS WILEY RIDGE AND CHILAO.

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. BOTH GFS AND NAM-WRF KEEP OFFSHORE TRENDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW...COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEY TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS
LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. IN FACT...IF HIGH CLOUDS STAY SCATTERED
IN NATURE...DOWNTOWN LA COULD REACH 80 DEGREES TOMORROW MAKING IT 10
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN JANUARY. BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. WITH WEAKENING NE WINDS...SOME WARMING ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND SANTA CLARITA SHOULD OCCUR.

MEANWHILE BY TUE NIGHT...AN ELONGATED N-S DEEP TROF WILL DROP SOUTH
OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WED.
THERE WILL BE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF HELPING TO TAP
INTO SOME DECENT SUBTROPIC MOISTURE WHICH CURRENTLY ADVERTISES 1.5
PWAT VALUES. AS THE TROF MOVES CLOSER TO LAND...IT TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT ON WED. THIS WILL HELP WITH UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE START
OF THE RAIN ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES. BUT BY WED EVENING VENTURA
COUNTY SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN...AND LA COUNTY BY WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS COULD CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH TIMING...BUT
AT THIS TIME RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AFFECTING SBA/VTU COUNTIES WED EVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WITH LA COUNTY THE BULK WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING.
THE BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FOR COASTS AND VLYS AND UP TO 2.5
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE RESORT LEVELS AS SUBTROPIC SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FETCH AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH THU. OF COURSE...TEMPS WILL
FALL DRAMATICALLY WED AND THU WITH THE TROF.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EC MAINTAINS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE LOW AND
DRIFTS IT WELL OFFSHORE ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TOOK A BROADBRUSHED APPROACH WITH CLOUDS
AND LOW POPS AND FELT I HAD TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST UNTIL SOME
CONSISTENCY CREPT INTO THE MODELS. THUS LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
BEYOND THURSDAY TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0345Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TUE.  SOME VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION. FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR EARLY WED MORNING IN NRN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL AREAS BY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. SOME VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TUE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. SOME VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MORRIS
AVIATION...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 200401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST MON JAN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY)

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS CONTINUED TO BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AS EXPECTED...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES REACHED ITS 9TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH THE HIGH TEMP REACHING OR EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES
WITH A READING OF 82 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH THAT EMBEDDED HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY...THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WAS NOT AFFECTED DUE TO THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PASSES AND
CANYONS. EXPECT NE TO E WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW OF THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...SUCH AS WILEY RIDGE AND CHILAO.

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN.  BOTH GFS AND NAM-WRF KEEP OFFSHORE TRENDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW...COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEY TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS
LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. IN FACT...IF HIGH CLOUDS STAY SCATTERED
IN NATURE...DOWNTOWN LA COULD REACH 80 DEGREES TOMORROW MAKING IT 10
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN JANUARY. BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. WITH WEAKENING NE WINDS...SOME WARMING ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND SANTA CLARITA SHOULD OCCUR.

MEANWHILE BY TUE NIGHT...AN ELONGATED N-S DEEP TROF WILL DROP SOUTH
OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WED.
THERE WILL BE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF HELPING TO TAP
INTO SOME DECENT SUBTROPIC MOISTURE WHICH CURRENTLY ADVERTISES 1.5
PWAT VALUES. AS THE TROF MOVES CLOSER TO LAND...IT TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT ON WED. THIS WILL HELP WITH UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE START
OF THE RAIN ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES. BUT BY WED EVENING VENTURA
COUNTY SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN...AND LA COUNTY BY WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS COULD CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH TIMING...BUT
AT THIS TIME RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AFFECTING SBA/VTU COUNTIES WED EVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WITH LA COUNTY THE BULK WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING.
THE BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH
HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FOR COASTS AND VLYS AND UP TO 2.5
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE RESORT LEVELS AS SUB TROPIC
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH THU. OF
COURSE...TEMPS WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY WED AND THU WITH THE TROF.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EC MAINTAINS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE LOW AND
DRIFTS IT WELL OFFSHORE ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TOOK A BROADBRUSHED APPROACH WITH CLOUDS
AND LOW POPS AND FELT I HAD TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST UNTIL SOME
CONSISTENCY CREPT INTO THE MODELS. THUS LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
BEYOND THURSDAY TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0345Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TUE.  SOME VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION. FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR EARLY WED MORNING IN NRN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL AREAS BY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. SOME VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TUE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. SOME VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MORRIS
AVIATION...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 192321
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 PM PST MON JAN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER LA/VTU COUNTY MUCH OF TODAY HAS THINNED
AND SHIFTED TO THE NE. AFFECTS WERE A LATE START TO HEATING BUT BY
MID AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE WHERE THEY WERE FORECAST. NE WINDS STILL
LINGERING AT THE STUBBORN LOCATIONS WITH GRADIENTS NOW LOWERING TO
-5.3MB LAX-TPH. GRADIENTS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO ONLY ISOLATED OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT.

WEAKENING GRADS AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT
COOLING ON TUE IN ALL AREAS BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS LA/VTU
COUNTY. LESS OFFSHORE WINDS AND LIMITED TO FAVORED CANYONS.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 12Z
MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM WITH EC AND NAM TAKING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK VERSUS THE GFS
WHICH DUG SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS BAJA MEXICO. BY 18Z...
SOME CONVERGENT ON A SOLUTION LOOKS AT HAND WITH THE SOUTHERN ROUTE
NOW PREFERRED BY THE NAM AND EC. THIS TRANSLATES TO MORE CONFIDENCE
IN A WET SYSTEM FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU. TIMING STILL
LOOKS LIKE EARLY WED ON CENTRAL COAST AND SPREADING DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN REACHING SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
BY SUNSET. RAIN LIKELY ALL ZONES WED NIGHT. SYSTEM LIEKLY TO TAP
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF 30N. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL
FORECAST OF PREDOMINATELY SOUTH OF A POINT CONCEPTION EVENT WITH
HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE COASTS AND VLYS AND UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. DEEPER MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF 30N ALSO MEANS
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS WITH SNOW ONLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 8000
FT. NEEDLESS TO SAY TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL BOTH WED
AND THU.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EC MAINTAINS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE LOW AND
DRIFTS IT WELL OFFSHORE ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TOOK A BROADBRUSHED APPROACH WITH CLOUDS
AND LOW POPS AND FELT I HAD TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST UNTIL SOME
CONSISTENCY CREPT INTO THE MODELS. THUS LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
BEYOND THURSDAY TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1850Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
TUESDAY. VALLEY TAFS OF KBUR AND KVNY WILL BE SUBJECT TO PERIODS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MORRIS
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 191848
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PST MON JAN 19 2009

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS EXTENSIVE AND SOLID MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS ALL OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE HERE ALL DAY AND WILL DEFINITELY IMPACT
TEMPS IN AFFECTED ZONES SO MORNING UPDATE ADDS THE CLOUDS AND LOWERS
HIGH TEMPS BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS
CAUSED THE PROLONGED WARM AND WINDY PATTERN. THE TROF ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OMEGA BEGINS TO TILT NEGATIVELY WHILE THE WHOLE OMEGA
PATTERN MOVES EASTWARD THIS ALLOWS A SHARP TROF TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE WSW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A MUCH MORE POTENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MDLS NEG TILTED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
OUTER WATERS WSW OF POINT CONCEPTION. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE SBA COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

06Z MDLS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN 00Z MDLS. RIGHT NOW FORECAST
CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MDLS CONTINUE THE 06Z MDL THINKING RAIN TIMING WILL HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED TO LATE TUE NIGHT CHC... AND RAIN LIKELY WED AND WED
NIGHT. MDLS CONTINUE TO FIND MORE AND MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PREDOMINATELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION EVENT WITH HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE COASTS AND VLY
AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY
AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TO HEART AS THERE COULD BE MANY TWISTS AND
CHANGES IN THE DAYS AHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHT DUE TO
SOUTH FLOW AND THE MAJOR ROADWAYS SHOULD NOT SEE SNOW. NE4ENDLESS TO
SAY THE WARMTH OF PREVIOUS WEEK WILL BE MERE MEMORY AS COASTAL HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...

GFS AND EC AGREE IN PRINCIPLE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE. THE GFS ENSEMBLES BOMB BURST SATURDAY ALSO. THURSDAY WILL
BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OUT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER L.A. COUNTY IN THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON A LITTLE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THIS SHOULD END THE RAIN BUT STILL THERE WILL BE CLOUDS
AND LOW HGTS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. A LITTLE EDDY
SPINS UP AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MARINE LAYER OVER THE L.A. AND
VTA COASTS AND VLYS.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH BUILDING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE WARM UP.

EYES ON THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE VERY INTERESTING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AT THIS TIME
MDL INCONSISTENCIES PRECLUDE A PRECISE FORECAST AND JUST
BROADBRUSHED THE SAT-MON PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND LOW POPS...BUT IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1850Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
TUESDAY. VALLEY TAFS OF KBUR AND KVNY WILL BE SUBJECT TO PERIODS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MORRIS
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 191715
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 AM PST MON JAN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS EXTENSIVE AND SOLID MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS ALL OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE HERE ALL DAY AND WILL DEFINITELY IMPACT
TEMPS IN AFFECTED ZONES SO MORNING UPDATE ADDS THE CLOUDS AND LOWERS
HIGH TEMPS BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS
CAUSED THE PROLONGED WARM AND WINDY PATTERN. THE TROF ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OMEGA BEGINS TO TILT NEGATIVELY WHILE THE WHOLE OMEGA
PATTERN MOVES EASTWARD THIS ALLOWS A SHARP TROF TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE WSW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A MUCH MORE POTENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MDLS NEG TILTED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
OUTER WATERS WSW OF POINT CONCEPTION. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE SBA COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

06Z MDLS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN 00Z MDLS. RIGHT NOW FORECAST
CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MDLS CONTINUE THE 06Z MDL THINKING RAIN TIMING WILL HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED TO LATE TUE NIGHT CHC... AND RAIN LIKELY WED AND WED
NIGHT. MDLS CONTINUE TO FIND MORE AND MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PREDOMINATELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION EVENT WITH HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE COASTS AND VLY
AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY
AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TO HEART AS THERE COULD BE MANY TWISTS AND
CHANGES IN THE DAYS AHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHT DUE TO
SOUTH FLOW AND THE MAJOR ROADWAYS SHOULD NOT SEE SNOW. NE4ENDLESS TO
SAY THE WARMTH OF PREVIOUS WEEK WILL BE MERE MEMORY AS COASTAL HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...

GFS AND EC AGREE IN PRINCIPLE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE. THE GFS ENSEMBLES BOMB BURST SATURDAY ALSO. THURSDAY WILL
BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OUT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER L.A. COUNTY IN THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON A LITTLE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THIS SHOULD END THE RAIN BUT STILL THERE WILL BE CLOUDS
AND LOW HGTS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. A LITTLE EDDY
SPINS UP AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MARINE LAYER OVER THE L.A. AND
VTA COASTS AND VLYS.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH BUILDING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE WARM UP.

EYES ON THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE VERY INTERESTING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AT THIS TIME
MDL INCONSISTENCIES PRECLUDE A PRECISE FORECAST AND JUST
BROADBRUSHED THE SAT-MON PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND LOW POPS...BUT IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MORRIS
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 191134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST MON JAN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE WARM BUT RATHER JEJUNE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAINING DRIVEN SOLELY BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AS
THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT. THICKNESS IS DOWN A LITTLE BUT
NOT MUCH AND EXPECT TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS VALUES.
DOWNTOWN WILL LIKELY REACH 80 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY FOR THE NINTH
CONSECUTIVE DAY. L.A. COUNTY WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A
LITTLE RIBBON OF UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY WILL BE REMARKABLE FOR THE START OF THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM
THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS CAUSED THE PROLONGED WARM AND WINDY
PATTERN. THE TROF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OMEGA BEGINS TO TILT
NEGATIVELY WHILE THE WHOLE OMEGA PATTERN MOVES EASTWARD THIS ALLOWS
A SHARP TROF TO APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE WSW. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TREND STRONGLY ONSHORE
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A MUCH MORE POTENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MDLS NEG TILTED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
OUTER WATERS WSW OF POINT CONCEPTION. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE SBA COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

06Z MDLS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN 00Z MDLS. RIGHT NOW FORECAST
CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MDLS CONTINUE THE 06Z MDL THINKING RAIN TIMING WILL HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED TO LATE TUE NIGHT CHC... AND RAIN LIKELY WED AND WED
NIGHT. MDLS CONTINUE TO FIND MORE AND MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PREDOMINATELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION EVENT WITH HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE COASTS AND VLY
AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY
AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TO HEART AS THERE COULD BE MANY TWISTS AND
CHANGES IN THE DAYS AHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHT DUE TO
SOUTH FLOW AND THE MAJOR ROADWAYS SHOULD NOT SEE SNOW. NE4ENDLESS TO
SAY THE WARMTH OF PREVIOUS WEEK WILL BE MERE MEMORY AS COASTAL HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...

...TYPING IT OUT NOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

19/1200Z.


KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 190353 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM BAJA INTO SOUTHERN CAL. EXPECT VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAINED
QUITE WARM AS DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES RECORDED ITS 8TH DAY IN A ROW
WITH A TEMPERATURE READING ABOVE 80 DEGREES. DOWNTOWN REACHED 84
DEGREES TODAY. A FAR CRY FROM THIS DATE`S RECORD OF 95 SET BACK IN
1971...YET 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
WEST WITH A 589DM HIGH JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE. OFFSHORE
TRENDS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED FROM 24-HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY LAX-DAG
-5.3MB. NO WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40 KT IN A FEW OF THE
WINDIEST SITES. EXPECT BETWEEN 15 TO 30 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40
KT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING SOME ON MON.

FOR MONDAY...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES
WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN. BY TUESDAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN PAC WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME
COOLING RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY REGIONS AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE BEACHES AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST COOLING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND A FEW SPOTS IN THE
UPPER 60S.

AT THIS POINT THE 00Z GFS HAS NOT MADE IT IN JUST YET WHILE THE 00Z
NAM WRF CONTINUES TO STAY IN LINE WITH EARLIER RUN...THEREFORE
EARLIER DISCUSSION FOR WED LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 60S.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. INITIALLY...MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS LAND AREAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THEY ARE NOW INDICATING A
NEGATIVE TILT WHICH WOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE BOTH SHOWING SHOWING A
BETTER SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 18Z GFS SHOWED
AN IMPRESSIVE 1.3 INCH PW PLUME AIMED TOWARDS LA COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SINCE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY...HAVE NOT GONE FOR EXTREME CHANGES. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS AND QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...WITH BEST FOCUS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP THESE NUMBERS UP
MORE IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS 18Z SOLUTIONS.


.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS LA COUNTY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST. WHILE THE LATER
PORTION OF THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY GENERALLY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
WEATHER TO RETURN LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THAT SOME RAINFALL WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HAVE
KEPT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...

19/0345Z.

VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS KBUR AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH MON MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/GOMBERG
AVIATION...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 190353
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM BAJA INTO SOUTHERN CAL. EXPECT VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAINED
QUITE WARM AS DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES RECORDED ITS 8TH DAY IN A ROW
WITH A TEMPERATURE READING ABOVE 80 DEGREES. DOWNTOWN REACHED 84
DEGREES TODAY. A FAR CRY FROM THIS DATE`S RECORD OF 95 SET BACK IN
1971...YET 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
WEST WITH A 589DM HIGH JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE. OFFSHORE
TRENDS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED FROM 24-HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY LAX-DAG
-5.3MB. NO WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40 KT IN A FEW OF THE
WINDIEST SITES. EXPECT BETWEEN 15 TO 30 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40
KT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING SOME ON MON.

FOR MONDAY...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES
WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN. BY TUESDAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN PAC WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME
COOLING RELIEF ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY REGIONS AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE BEACHES AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST COOLING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND A FEW SPOTS IN THE
UPPER 60S.

AT THIS POINT THE 00Z GFS HAS NOT MADE IT IN JUST YET WHILE THE 00Z
NAM WRF CONTINUES TO STAY IN LINE WITH EARLIER RUN...THEREFORE
EARLIER DISCUSSION FOR WED LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 60S.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. INITIALLY...MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS LAND AREAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THEY ARE NOW INDICATING A
NEGATIVE TILT WHICH WOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE BOTH SHOWING SHOWING A
BETTER SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 18Z GFS SHOWED
AN IMPRESSIVE 1.3 INCH PW PLUME AIMED TOWARDS LA COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SINCE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY...HAVE NOT GONE FOR EXTREME CHANGES. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS AND QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...WITH BEST FOCUS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP THESE NUMBERS UP
MORE IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS 18Z SOLUTIONS.


.LONG TERM...
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS LA COUNTY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST. WHILE THE LATER
PORTION OF THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY GENERALLY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
WEATHER TO RETURN LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THAT SOME RAINFALL WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HAVE
KEPT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...

19/0345Z.

VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS KBUR AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH MON MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/GOMBERG
AVIATION...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 182225
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH 1044 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO.
THIS PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED A STRONGER SURFACE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TODAY. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT -5.9 MB THIS MORNING...AND CURRENTLY
REMAINS AT AN IMPRESSIVE -5.5 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER
40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN GUSTING IN THE 30S. LOOK FOR SIMILAR WIND
SPEEDS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE
WINDS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...WITH MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE 80 DEGREES. DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES HAS ALREADY
REACHED A HIGH OF 82 DEGREES TODAY...ITS EIGHTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF OVER 80
DEGREES! VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO RETURN AT SOME POINT MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. ON TUESDAY...LOOK FOR COASTAL AREAS TO COOL QUITE A BIT...BUT
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN VERY WARM.

HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENTLY
LONG DURATION OF STRONG WINDS TO REACH CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS...SO
NO RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/EMCWF SOLUTIONS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. INITIALLY...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS LAND AREAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE
GFS AND EMCWF SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THEY
ARE NOW INDICATING A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH WOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE BOTH SHOWING SHOWING
A BETTER SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 18Z GFS SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE
1.3 INCH PW PLUME AIMED TOWARDS LA COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY...HAVE NOT GONE
FOR EXTREME CHANGES. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF CONSIDERABLY
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH BEST FOCUS EXPECTED
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO
RAMP THESE NUMBERS UP MORE IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS
18Z SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS LA COUNTY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS FIRST
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST. WHILE THE LATER PORTION OF
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY GENERALLY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE REGION...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER TO
RETURN LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT
SOME RAINFALL WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT ONLY 20-30
PERCENT POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...

18/1200Z.

NO FLYING PROBLEMS FCST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...WOFFORD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 181726
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT HAS TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH CURRENT READING OF -5.9 MB. THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE GRADIENT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A BUMP UP IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN MORNING
UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN SOME ZONES...WITH PEAK GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH IN WIND FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TODAY FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES BUT FEEL
THAT STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
MODEL CROSS SECTINOS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR
MONDAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK WIND SPEEDS A BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...WITH MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SOARING
ABOVE 80 DEGREES TODAY AND MONDAY. DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES HAS ALREADY HAD
7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 80 DEGREES OR ABOVE...AND COULD GO UP TO 9
CONSECUTIVE BY MONDAY. HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT DURATIONS WILL BE
MET FOR CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ***


MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH ONLY LIMITED WINDS. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL COOL OFF QUICKLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY DRY AIR. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE OMEGA BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL KICK OFF A PATTERN CHANGE (FINALLY)

TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE OMEGA WILL HAVE TRANSLATED TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AREA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH TO THE
WEST COAST. HGTS DROP TO 576DM...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD QUICKLY
TREND ONSHORE AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TURN THE SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT TUESDAY WILL SEE A NICE DROP
IN TEMPS.

WHILE FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN THERE IS NOT ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FORECAST TO POSE A CRITICAL THREAT AND THERE ARE NO RED FLAGS IN
EFFECT.


.LONG TERM...

EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THE OMEGA WILL BREAK DOWN TUESDAY. BOTH SORT
OF AGREE THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THEY MIGHT AS WELL BE FORECASTING
FOR DIFFERENT PLANETS GIVEN THE AMOUNT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO.
GFS ENSEMBLES HANG TOGETHER THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND THEN BOMB
BURST. GIVEN THIS MDL UNCERTAINTY DID NOT MAKE THAT MANY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLGT
CHC OF RAIN AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR BY. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A FEW DAYS. THURSDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP. THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS BUT RAIN LOOKS DOUBTFUL. TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY EC IS DRY WHILE GFS HAS A
WEAK STORM NEARING THE AREA. SATURDAY THE GFS HAS A DIFFERENT LOW IN
THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS A DIFFERENT AND BIGGER RIDGE. KEPT THE POP
IN FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN THE FORECAST. IT WOULD
BE BEST JUST TO WAIT ANOTHER DAY AND SEE WHAT THE COMPUTERS IN
WASHINGTON AND EUROPE SPIT OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

18/1200Z.

NO FLYING PROBLEMS FCST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 181159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS MAROONED IN A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH
THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 80 OR ABOVE AT DOWNTOWN LA NOW AT 7 AND
HEADED TO 8 TODAY. MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH 589 DM HGTS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A
ONSHORE TREND TO THE NORTH. UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED AND CURRENTLY
WINDS ARE ALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH MAX
TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES INTO
NEVADA AND EVEN PUSHES A LITTLE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE USUALLY BREEZY LOCATIONS BUT
THE LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH WARMING PROVIDED BU THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS BUT COOLING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE
LOCATIONS WITHIN A MILE OF EACH OTHER COULD HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN LOS
OF 20 DEGREES.

MONDAY WILL DAWN SUNNY AND BREEZY. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE DOWN SOME IN THE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP THE
COASTS AND COASTAL VLYS TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAYS.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH ONLY LIMITED WINDS. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL COOL OFF QUICKLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY DRY AIR. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE OMEGA BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL KICK OFF A PATTERN CHANGE (FINALLY)

TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE OMEGA WILL HAVE TRANSLATED TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AREA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH TO THE
WEST COAST. HGTS DROP TO 576DM...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD QUICKLY
TREND ONSHORE AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TURN THE SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT TUESDAY WILL SEE A NICE DROP
IN TEMPS.

WHILE FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN THERE IS NOT ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FORECAST TO POSE A CRITICAL THREAT AND THERE ARE NO RED FLAGS IN
EFFECT.


.LONG TERM...

EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THE OMEGA WILL BREAK DOWN TUESDAY. BOTH SORT
OF AGREE THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THEY MIGHT AS WELL BE FORECASTING
FOR DIFFERENT PLANETS GIVEN THE AMOUNT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO.
GFS ENSEMBLES HANG TOGETHER THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND THEN BOMB
BURST. GIVEN THIS MDL UNCERTAINTY DID NOT MAKE THAT MANY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLGT
CHC OF RAIN AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR BY. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A FEW DAYS. THURSDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE RIDGE WILL POP UP. THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS BUT RAIN LOOKS DOUBTFUL. TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY EC IS DRY WHILE GFS HAS A
WEAK STORM NEARING THE AREA. SATURDAY THE GFS HAS A DIFFERENT LOW IN
THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS A DIFFERENT AND BIGGER RIDGE. KEPT THE POP
IN FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN THE FORECAST. IT WOULD
BE BEST JUST TO WAIT ANOTHER DAY AND SEE WHAT THE COMPUTERS IN
WASHINGTON AND EUROPE SPIT OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

18/1200Z.

NO FLYING PROBLEMS FCST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 181147
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS MAROONED IN A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH
THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 80 OR ABOVE AT DOWNTOWN LA NOW AT 7 AND
HEADED TO 8 TODAY. MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH 589 DM HGTS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A
ONSHORE TREND TO THE NORTH. UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED AND CURRENTLY
WINDS ARE ALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH MAX
TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES INTO
NEVADA AND EVEN PUSHES A LITTLE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE USUALLY BREEZY LOCATIONS BUT
THE LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH WARMING PROVIDED BU THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS BUT COOLING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE
LOCATIONS WITHIN A MILE OF EACH OTHER COULD HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN LOS
OF 20 DEGREES.

MONDAY WILL DAWN SUNNY AND BREEZY. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE DOWN SOME IN THE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP THE
COASTS AND COASTAL VLYS TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAYS.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH ONLY LIMITED WINDS. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL COOL OFF QUICKLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY DRY AIR. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE OMEGA BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL KICK OFF A PATTERN CHANGE (FINALLY)

TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE OMEGA WILL HAVE TRANSLATED TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AREA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH TO THE
WEST COAST. HGTS DROP TO 576DM...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD QUICKLY
TREND ONSHORE AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TURN THE SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT TUESDAY WILL SEE A NICE DROP
IN TEMPS.

WHILE FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN THERE IS NOT ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FORECAST TO POSE A CRITICAL THREAT AND THERE ARE NO RED FLAGS IN
EFFECT.


.LONG TERM...

...TYPING IT AS YOU READ THIS...

&&

.AVIATION...

18/1200Z.

KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 180426
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
825 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
COVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTY NE CANYON WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH READINGS IN THE WARMEST AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

A LARGE UPPER HI ALONG AND OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER THE PAC NW AND NRN GREAT BASIN SUN AND MON. THE UPPER HI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A BROAD RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FOR
TUE. BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROFFINESS WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN CA
SUN THRU MON. A BETTER ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH CA FROM THE W ON TUE. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME GUSTY
NE CANYON WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THRU MON...WITH MUCH WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO TUE. IT APPEARS WINDS OVER THE MTNS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND
WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AGAIN. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE AS THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS OFF THE COAST. TEMPS ACROSS THE DISTRICT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WARM THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUN AND
MON...WITH HIGHS AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM COULD BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SECOND AND COLDER SYSTEM COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED CONSIDERABLY IN THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THESE SYSTEM...BUT NEITHER OF THEM LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0425Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SUN EVENING. NO WIND ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 172208
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY JANUARY
DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...WITH MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN TOPPING 80 DEGREES. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT STILL AT -4.0 MB BUT OFFSHORE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS TYPICAL NORTHEAST FACING PASSES AND CANYONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DURING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS
COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHLAND
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDTIIONS. MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR ABOVE
80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED SINGLE DIGIT READINGS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...WITH COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS
MOST AREAS. AN INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOWING
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM COULD BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SECOND AND COLDER SYSTEM COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED CONSIDERABLY IN THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THESE SYSTEM...BUT NEITHER OF THEM LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...17/1730Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. LLWS WAS REPORTED AT KVNY HOWEVER...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST SEABREEZE BY 21Z
AROUND 10 KT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES