000
FXUS65 KLKN 201126
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 AM PST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE LAST DAY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR ONE LAST DAY...THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NEVADA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY. RELATIVELY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOST VALLEYS LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
AGREE MODERATELY WELL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
INCLEMENT AND COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME IN THE SECOND
HALF...WITH THE MODELS DIVERGING A BIT.
GFS HAS SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AND NAM ON FRIDAY...
WITH LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF RAIN. WEAK CAA OCCURS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROF AND COLD FRONT IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH
SAME GENERAL IDEA OF TROF AND COLD FRONT IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND KICKER WITH VERY STRONG CAA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALMOST ALL SNOW FOR THIS GO-ROUND...WITH
MODERATE QPF SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ADVISORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY...700MB TEMPS NORTH DOWN TO -23C
WITH GFS...-17C WITH DGEX...AND -15C WITH EUROPEAN...WILL SIGNAL THE
RETURN OF WINTER.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
99/90/90
000
FXUS65 KLKN 192322
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR COLD NIGHTS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGIN
TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CA COAST. MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ITS WEAKENING
REMNANTS ACROSS NEVADA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WARMER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE VALLEYS LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DETAILS IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BEYOND DAY
FOUR. THE GENERAL PATTERN CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...IS THAT
THREE RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM ACTUALLY
BEGINS TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF TO THE NE.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WARM...WITH H7 TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND -3C...AND ON FRIDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER. AS SUCH...EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO BE RAIN IN VALLEY AREAS AND SNOW ABOVE 6000 OR 6500
FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP
ABOUT 500 FEET...WITH ANY PRECIP IN THE VALLEY AREAS STILL LIKELY TO
BE RAIN...HOWEVER A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELKO COUNTY WHERE
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXITS OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE POINT IN WHICH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER. BOTH MODELS SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STREAMING INTO THE PAC NW AND CLIPPING NE NEVADA.
THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THE INITIAL POSITION
OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...AS WELL AS IF OR WHEN
THAT ENERGY WILL MAKE THE INLAND PUSH THROUGH CA AND INTO NV.
GFS MODEL SHOWS THE CUT-OFF LOW FURTHER OFF SHORE OF THE S CA COAST
INITIALLY...SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE ELKO
COUNTY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE
PAC NW CLIPS NE NEVADA...WHILE THE CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE ENERGY
INLAND...WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL
THEN DROPS THE ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW FURTHER SOUTH THAN DOES THE
GFS...WITH THIS THIRD ROUND OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN NV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO DID MAKE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
UP IN THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS STILL
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON...WENT
WITH A BROADBRUSH OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/96/96
000
FXUS65 KLKN 191006
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
206 AM PST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR COLD NIGHTS TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR COLD NIGHTS. UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE ECMWF AND NAM
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SIERRAS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL BE OCCURRING STARTING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TO START THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF
LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CA AND WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST U.S. THU. ECMWF IS FURTHEST NORTH OF ALL
MODELS AND BRINGS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP TO NORTHERN NV.
ALL OTHER MODELS BRING UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP. MODEL TRENDS LAST DAY OR SO EXCEPT FOR LATEST
ECMWF HAVE BEEN FOR A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SO WILL NOT JUMP ON
MUCH PRECIP JUST YET. GIVEN UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES...IF THIS PRECIP DOES OCCUR ON THU WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH A TROUGH DIVING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NW. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS
CWA DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS AT NIGHT. WENT NEAR
GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR HIGHS...BUT DO EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL SHOULD KEEP LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
99/86
000
FXUS65 KLKN 182303
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
303 PM PST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR COLD NIGHTS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR COLD NIGHTS. UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE ECMWF AND NAM
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SIERRAS. THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH APPROACHES
THE CA COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DROP
THE INCOMING SYSTEM FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH NEW MODEL
RUN. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA AND BAJA CA THURSDAY...THEN PROGRESS INLAND IN A
NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EXIT INTO NORTHERN UTAH...WITH A
SECOND SYSTEM THEN APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. AS FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM COMING IN NEXT WEEKEND...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA UNTIL MODELS
GET A BETTER HANDLE. ALSO NUDGED THE LOW TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AS
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. &&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
91/96/96
000
FXUS65 KLKN 180950
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
150 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR COLD NIGHTS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
COMING WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NV DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CA COAST TUESDAY WILL SPREAD
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
COLD NIGHTS ARE IN STORE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS NOT SHOWING VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY LAST SEVERAL RUNS. PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA DEPENDING ON MODEL PREFERENCE. GFS IS FURTHEST
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS HERE. WILL LIKELY JUST SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES TO THE SOUTH...THINK MOST
PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF CWA. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE CLEARING FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING DOWN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT...BUT LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE W AND COULD HELP WITH
MIXING AND HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY THE SAME IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE CWA. SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT
LOOKS A LOT LIKE MANY OF THE STORMS THAT CROSSED AREA IN DEC WHICH
JUST PUT DOWN AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW SINCE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PATTERN SHIFT
REAL WELL AND WANT TO WAIT AND SEE SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
BEFORE JUMPING ON ANY HIGHER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
99/86
000
FXUS65 KLKN 172311
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
311 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUNNY DAYS
AND CLEAR COLD NIGHTS TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NV DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CA COAST TUESDAY WILL SPREAD
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
COLD NIGHTS ARE IN STORE.
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE CA COASTLINE ADVANCING EAST TOWARD
NEVADA...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH
NEARS...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BE PUSHED EAST INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IN THE MODELS IS TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY HEADING INTO SOUTHERN CA WITH A
MUCH SMALL AMOUNT MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH. MODELS VARY AS TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SPLIT FLOW HOWEVER...RESULTING IN
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITHIN ANY GIVEN MODEL IS ALSO POOR
AT THIS TIME FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THIS FIRST
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...OR AROUND...THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A REDUCED THREAT OF
PRECIP IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAMES. A SECOND
TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. &&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE
GREAT BASIN AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
91/96/96
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