000
FXUS64 KLIX 201719 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1119 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.UPDATE...
GOING AHEAD AND ISSUING FREEZE WARNING FOR PARISHES SOUTH OF TIDAL
LAKES AS RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD GO IN EARNEST AFTER WINDS
SETTLE AFTER SUNSET. DECIDED TO ISSUE HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE LAKES EAST OF I-55 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES. DURATION WILL BE MARGINALLY CLOSE
BUT ENOUGH 24-26 DEGREE MINS EXPECTED FOR SOME DURATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VORTICITY FEATURE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SITUATED EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA.
VFR STRATOCU FIELD FROM CENTRAL MISSISIPPI NORTHWARD HAS SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES BUT THIS CLOUD FIELD IS MOVING INTO CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BEFORE MOVING INTO TERMINAL
AIR SPACES IN CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 25 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 50 28 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 52 32 54 39 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 51 26 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ066.
FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ056>065.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ550-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ570-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ575.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLIX 200927
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS RUNNING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. LAST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN TROF IS NOW ENTERING
THE BASE OF THE TROF. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS IS ENHANCING THE
WIND FIELD SOMEWHAT OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. CLOUD COVER IS LIMITED
TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. TEMPS AT 09Z RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO 41 AT BOOTHVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH EASTERN TROF FILLING...NO STORM SYSTEMS OR
FRONTS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WE MAY SEE A
FEW COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS TODAY...BUT AFTER THAT...CLEAR
SAILING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ONLY PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS WHAT TO
DO WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AND ANY ASSOCIATED HEADLINES.
WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHERE WE ARE REQUIRED TO ISSUE ANY TIME WE
EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...THIS
STILL APPEARS TO BE BORDERLINE CALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA. NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE INTERSTATE
10-12 CORRIDOR...ANY HEADLINES WOULD BE RELATED TO A HARD
FREEZE...LOCALLY DEFINED AS 26 OR BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AGAIN...STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE AREA WILL MEET THE
CRITERIA. CURRENT PLAN IS TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH SOUTH SHORE
AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE THE
LAST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT COLD SPELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
READINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE 12-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN MONDAY IN MOST AREAS. GUIDANCE CLOSE AND ACCEPTED FOR THE
MOST PART. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE 60S. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BRINGING A ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE SCENARIO FOR THE
WEEKEND. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DRAGS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND KEEPS IT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LIFT WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND WILL
NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT COULD SEE ONE OR TWO
INTERRUPTIONS DUE TO LIGHT RAIN. FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ABOUT MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S. FRIDAY AND MONDAY COULD
BOTH SEE READINGS IN THE 70S IN SOME AREAS. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE TODAY THROUGH
02Z WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 18
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK INTO SCA CRITERIA BY
18Z AND REMAIN RATHER BRISK THROUGH EARLY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY SWINGS AROUND TO ONSHORE
FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. WAVES ACTION SHOULD DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 18
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 25 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 50 28 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 52 32 54 39 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 51 26 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER
TERREBONNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
MS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 200559 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1159 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA. COLDEST AIR IS LAGGING
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES DID DROP A FEW DEGREES AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS YIELDED FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM...
A CANADIAN HIGH AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...THOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH COLDEST AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
LOWS TO BE COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION AND WINDS DROP TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE RIVER PARISHES AND AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 26 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF 25 DEGREES...BUT A
LASTING HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY FREEZE RELATED PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...ACTIONS
SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND PETS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES WHEN IT COMES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
GOING FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH CURRENT HPC PROGS AND APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET...BUT
EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THIS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE CONSERVATIVE.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA. TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME PLACES
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ONES THAT HAVE RECENTLY AFFECTED THE AREA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. EXPECT THE
SECOND SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION...
/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY ABATE DURING THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER BRISK TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY SWINGS AROUND TO ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
MUCH LESS LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 31 48 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 33 50 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 38 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 33 51 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ066.
FREEZE WATCH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAZ056>065.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ570-
575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ575.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 192121
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA. COLDEST AIR IS LAGGING
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES DID DROP A FEW DEGREES AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS YIELDED FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A CANADIAN HIGH AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...THOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH COLDEST AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
LOWS TO BE COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION AND WINDS DROP TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE RIVER PARISHES AND AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 26 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF 25 DEGREES...BUT A
LASTING HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY FREEZE RELATED PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...ACTIONS
SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND PETS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES WHEN IT COMES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
GOING FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH CURRENT HPC PROGS AND APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET...BUT
EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THIS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE CONSERVATIVE.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA. TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME PLACES
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ONES THAT HAVE RECENTLY AFFECTED THE AREA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. EXPECT THE
SECOND SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY ABATE DURING THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER BRISK TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY SWINGS AROUND TO ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
MUCH LESS LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 31 48 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 33 50 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 38 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 33 51 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ066.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR LAZ056>065.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ570-
575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ575.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...24
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
000
FXUS64 KLIX 191716 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1116 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CLIPPER TYPE RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA AT
THIS TIME...HAVING MOVED THROUGH KMCB AND KBTR ALREADY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS BEING INDICATED AT KMSY/KNEW/KGPT
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH END VFR
THROUGH 00Z AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. SOME LLWS MAY
BE ENCOUNTERED AT KMSY AND KNEW THROUGH ABOUT 00Z AS SW WINDS NEAR
SURFACE BECOME NW/N ON THE ORDER OF +/- 10KT LOWEST 300-400 FT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE TIDAL LAKES ARE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON AVERAGE
THOUGH PROBABLY CLOSER TO 22 KT GUST 28KT IN THE FIRST MILE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE DUE TO THERMAL MIXING OVER TRAJECTORY BUT WILL
LIKELY SETTLE A BIT LATER THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL WATERS ARE
CLEARLY SUSTAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 31 48 25 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 62 33 50 28 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 62 38 52 32 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 63 33 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ066.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ570-
575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ575.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLIX 190930
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
FIRST COLD FRONT WELL OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SECONDARY
FRONT MOVING INTO THE TEXARKANA AREA. SECOND FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED
BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK LIKELY TO REACH OUR AREA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE A SIGNFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OR DEW POINTS.
TEMPERATURES AT 09Z GENERALLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT AT MCCOMB WHERE
IT IS 36...AND LAKEFRONT AIRPORT WHICH IS REPORTING 53.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON SUNDAY. MET NUMBERS LOOK SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN MAV NUMBERS FOR TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CAROLINAS...GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE BIT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARD
MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD...AS MET/FWC
NUMBERS WERE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN CHILLING US WITH THE LAST
AIRMASS. WE BEGIN A MODERATING TREND ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WE GET IN RETURN FLOW. MAV NUMBERS AGAIN
LOOK BETTER THAN MET...BUT WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE MAV.
35
&&
.LONG TERM...
FINALLY...EASTERN TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...AND FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS AFTER
ABOUT THURSDAY. GFS HANGS FRONT UP NEAR THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES IT SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
MOST OF THE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...GFS TEMPS FOR SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TO BETTER FIT THE SURFACE
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF DEPICTS...BELOW GFS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
/06Z AND 12Z TAF PACKAGE/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE A BIT TODAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THERE MAY A FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 3000
FEET ALSO DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 18
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ INTO TUESDAY...TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WELL OFFSHORE AS WAVES WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 7 FEET. WINDS MAY RISE AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS THIS EVENING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. 18
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 31 48 25 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 62 33 50 28 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 62 38 52 32 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 62 33 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
MS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 190344 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
944 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES WERE LOWERED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE A BIT MONDAY
MORNING AND THERE MAY A FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 3000
FEET ALSO DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY DUE TO ALL THE REINFORCEMENTS OF COOL
DRY AIR. 22
&&
.MARINE...
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ INTO TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
PERIODS BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY RISE AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS MONDAY EVENING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. 22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED THE
AREA. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW PLACES NEAR THE COAST
HAVE REACHED 70 DEGREES. A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES
PARISH.
SHORT TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK.
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A
REINFORCING HIGH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE THROUGH THE RIVER PARISHES AND INTO
METRO NEW ORLEANS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN RESPONSE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SERVE TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS
LOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...BUT EXPECT A STRONG
RETURN OF MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE ENTER A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT WILL LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH VERY NOTICEABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO HPC
PROGS AND GENERALLY REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE
RESULT IS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME SATURDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR FLIGHT
OPERATIONS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
THESE IDEAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE OTHER
THAN EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM ON MONDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS MAY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
A WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 40 58 33 50 / 0 10 0 0
BTR 42 62 35 52 / 0 10 0 0
MSY 47 62 40 54 / 0 10 0 0
GPT 44 63 35 54 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ066.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-555-570-
575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ555-570-575.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 182107
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
307 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED THE
AREA. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW PLACES NEAR THE COAST
HAVE REACHED 70 DEGREES. A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES
PARISH.
.SHORT TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK.
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A
REINFORCING HIGH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE THROUGH THE RIVER PARISHES AND INTO
METRO NEW ORLEANS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN RESPONSE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SERVE TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS
LOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...BUT EXPECT A STRONG
RETURN OF MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE ENTER A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT WILL LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH VERY NOTICEABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO HPC
PROGS AND GENERALLY REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE
RESULT IS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME SATURDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR FLIGHT
OPERATIONS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
THESE IDEAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE OTHER
THAN EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM ON MONDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS MAY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
A WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 40 58 33 50 / 0 10 0 0
BTR 42 62 35 52 / 0 10 0 0
MSY 47 62 40 54 / 0 10 0 0
GPT 44 63 35 54 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ066.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ550-555-570-
575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ555-570-575.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...10
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
000
FXUS64 KLIX 181742
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1142 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN OVER LAND AREAS AS ALL
PRECIP HAS NOW MOVED OFF SHORE. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. ALL AIRPORT
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPT OF GULFPORT ARE EITHER CLEAR OR ARE
REPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET. GUFLPORT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING A 2500 FEET...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR
LESS. WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A LINE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FAST
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CLEARING THE LOUISIANA
COAST...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY PULLING OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRY AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
WITHIN THIS DEEP FLOW A SECOND VORT LOBE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY SURGE WILL USHER IN A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTH SHORE.
LONG TERM...
GOING BEYOND MIDWEEK...THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER TEXAS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE HOLD. THE AIRMASS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP...BUT EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO WORK IN FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ZONAL
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PROBLEM WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
IS THAT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THESE PACIFIC
SYSTEMS...AND THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM IS VERY LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME.
WITH THIS IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AS A FAST MOVING VORT MAX PULLS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE OVERALL
TROUGH AXIS WILL POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A
FORECAST WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE CWA AS THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULL
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPEARTURES. A SECOND VORT MAX SHOULD PULL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION...
/PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF PACKAGE/
AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED FROM WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MAINLY AFFECTED BTR AND MCB THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING
THROUGH TODAY SHOWED MEAGER INSTABILITY...CAPE VALUE INCREASES UP TO
180 J/KG THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE TS OUT OF ALL FOUR TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH 20 KTS.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER
20Z AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. 18
MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY STRONG
SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO CALM ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW.
18
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 37 60 33 / 30 0 10 0
BTR 67 39 63 35 / 30 0 10 0
MSY 68 44 63 40 / 40 0 10 0
GPT 68 41 62 35 / 40 0 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ066.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ550-555-
570-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ555-570-
575.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 180923
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FAST
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CLEARING THE LOUISIANA
COAST...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY PULLING OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRY AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
WITHIN THIS DEEP FLOW A SECOND VORT LOBE WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY SURGE WILL USHER IN A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTH SHORE.
.LONG TERM...
GOING BEYOND MIDWEEK...THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER TEXAS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE HOLD. THE AIRMASS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP...BUT EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO WORK IN FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ZONAL
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PROBLEM WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
IS THAT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THESE PACIFIC
SYSTEMS...AND THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM IS VERY LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME.
WITH THIS IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AS A FAST MOVING VORT MAX PULLS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE OVERALL
TROUGH AXIS WILL POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A
FORECAST WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE CWA AS THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULL
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPEARTURES. A SECOND VORT MAX SHOULD PULL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
/PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF PACKAGE/
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED FROM WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MAINLY AFFECTED BTR AND MCB THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING
THROUGH TODAY SHOWED MEAGER INSTABILITY...CAPE VALUE INCREASES UP TO
180 J/KG THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE TS OUT OF ALL FOUR TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH 20 KTS.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER
20Z AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. 18
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY STRONG
SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO CALM ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW.
18
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 37 60 33 / 30 0 10 0
BTR 67 39 63 35 / 30 0 10 0
MSY 68 44 63 40 / 40 0 10 0
GPT 68 41 62 35 / 40 0 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
GMZ550-555-570-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ555-570-
575.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KLIX 180538
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. MCB AND BTR
WILL BE AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE PERIOD WITH GPT AND MSY SEEING
SHOWER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO SUNRISE. COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN NW
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH 20 KTS. CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. VFR
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN LIFT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND MIDDLE CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR 50. THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
LATELY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE VERY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
WEAK FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK 500 MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO
ACT AS TRIGGERS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM...
COOL DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS HOLD ON THE GULF SOUTH. BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALL AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 00Z TAF PACKAGE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN AT EACH TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 95/DM
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO CALM ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW. 95/DM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 61 36 57 / 40 40 10 10
BTR 49 65 39 61 / 30 40 10 10
MSY 51 67 43 59 / 20 50 10 10
GPT 49 64 37 58 / 20 50 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LOWER TERREBONNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 172142
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND MIDDLE CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR 50. THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
LATELY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE VERY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
WEAK FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK 500 MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO
ACT AS TRIGGERS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...
COOL DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS HOLD ON THE GULF SOUTH. BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALL AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 00Z TAF PACKAGE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN AT EACH TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 95/DM
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO CALM ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW. 95/DM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 61 36 57 / 40 40 10 10
BTR 49 65 39 61 / 30 40 10 10
MSY 51 67 43 59 / 20 50 10 10
GPT 49 64 37 58 / 20 50 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ550-555-
570-575.
MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ555-570- 575.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 171759
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1159 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAF PACKAGE/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AROUND 5000 FEET AT
KBTR AND KMCB AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SET IN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED CHANCE OF RAIN
AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. 95/DM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
UPDATE...
CANCELLED NPW FOR NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTH OF TIDAL LAKE...PASCAGOULA
AND FEW UNOFFICIAL STILL FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
DISCUSSION...
HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AND ON TRACK AT
PASCAGOULA. HOWEVER...GULFPORT WAS 33F AT 10Z AND A HARD FREEZE IS
NOT LIKELY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WERE OVER WEST LOUISIANA AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES HAVE SOMEWHAT PREVENTED
TEMPS FROM DECREASING TO THE LOWER 20S. WILL CLEAN UP AROUND 6 AM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 1038MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1004MB LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A SHORT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO MONTANA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS WAVE
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER
THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. 00Z SAT SOUNDING
AT SLIDELL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 0.37 INCH AND GFS
INITIALIZED 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SHORT WAVE OVER
NEBRASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND ADDITION
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. POOLING OF THE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE PW VALUES UP TO 1.2 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...ACCORDING TO GFS AND NAM. LAPSE
RATES WILL BECOME STEEP EAST OF THE AREA...SO JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS.
INCREASE MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED OUR DECISION TO INCREASE POPS UP TO
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EAST CONUS...DIVING DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH
ZONES...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT EAST
OF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM...SOMEWHAT WEAKENS OVER PLAINS...WILL
DRIVE AN AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY...ACCORDING TO GFS. ECMWF BRINGS A VERY WEAKEN SYSTEM OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND CLOUD GRID
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL PULL TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...AS A SECONDARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM REINFORCES DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO WANE ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GULF
SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...AS
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 32
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 52 48 60 36 / 0 40 60 10
BTR 56 49 64 39 / 0 30 60 10
MSY 55 51 66 43 / 0 20 60 10
GPT 54 49 63 37 / 0 20 60 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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