000
FXUS64 KLCH 201736
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VRF TO PREVAIL. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS AN ESTABLISHED COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES. WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING LATE.
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW THE
PREDICTED TIDES FOR TODAY...DUE TO THE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS.
ALSO...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL RETAIN THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE ZONE PACKAGE
IS ON TARGET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. AREAWIDE WINDS HAVE CALMED
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES TO THE MID TO LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR YESTERDAY UNDER-DID THE WINDS AREAWIDE AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. WITH WINDS AT 850 MB UP TO 40 KNOTS AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA
TODAY. AS WINDS CALM TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EXPECT
MOST OF THE AREA TO GET AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHERLY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
HANG UP IN THE COASTAL WATERS CREATING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING A STRONG COLD FRONT. AM NOT WILLING TO JUMP ON THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THESE WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 61 31 60 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 62 30 61 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 54 27 57 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 57 30 56 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
ORANGE...TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 201534
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW THE
PREDICTED TIDES FOR TODAY...DUE TO THE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS.
ALSO...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL RETAIN THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE ZONE PACKAGE
IS ON TARGET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. AREAWIDE WINDS HAVE CALMED
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES TO THE MID TO LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR YESTERDAY UNDER-DID THE WINDS AREAWIDE AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. WITH WINDS AT 850 MB UP TO 40 KNOTS AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA
TODAY. AS WINDS CALM TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EXPECT
MOST OF THE AREA TO GET AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHERLY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
HANG UP IN THE COASTAL WATERS CREATING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING A STRONG COLD FRONT. AM NOT WILLING TO JUMP ON THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THESE WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 61 31 60 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 62 30 61 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 54 27 57 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 57 30 56 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
ORANGE...TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 201250
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
650 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. AREAWIDE WINDS HAVE CALMED
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES TO THE MID TO LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR YESTERDAY UNDER-DID THE WINDS AREAWIDE AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. WITH WINDS AT 850 MB UP TO 40 KNOTS AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA
TODAY. AS WINDS CALM TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EXPECT
MOST OF THE AREA TO GET AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHERLY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
HANG UP IN THE COASTAL WATERS CREATING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING A STRONG COLD FRONT. AM NOT WILLING TO JUMP ON THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THESE WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 61 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 0
KBPT 62 30 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
KAEX 54 27 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
KLFT 57 30 56 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-
CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER
ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR HARDIN-JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...28
AVIATION...13
000
FXUS64 KLCH 201006
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. AREAWIDE WINDS HAVE CALMED
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES TO THE MID TO LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR YESTERDAY UNDER-DID THE WINDS AREAWIDE AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. WITH WINDS AT 850 MB UP TO 40 KNOTS AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA
TODAY. AS WINDS CALM TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EXPECT
MOST OF THE AREA TO GET AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHERLY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
HANG UP IN THE COASTAL WATERS CREATING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING A STRONG COLD FRONT. AM NOT WILLING TO JUMP ON THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THESE WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 61 31 60 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 62 30 61 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 54 27 57 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 57 30 56 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...
AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...
IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...
RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
VERMILION...VERNON.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SNAVELY
000
FXUS64 KLCH 200538
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE-MORNING TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15
KNOTS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT ALL SITES.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONG NORTH NORTHWEST FETCH OF
WIND WITH A TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRARIES. WV/IR IMAGERY
SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH KEPT OUR TEMPS COMFORTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. ALL THAT DRYING HAS
RESULTED IN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE AREA.
COMBINING DEW PONTS 3 TO 5 DEGREES UNDER GUIDANCE WITH 50 TO 60
DECAMETER THICKNESS FALLS OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COOL ADVECTION, I
WILL NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP SO ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF U.S. HWY 190.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE-MORNING TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15
KNOTS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY MOST SITES (KAEX MAY BE
JUST A TAD LOWER).
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WELL AS THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE INNER WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TRIMMED BACK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PER
LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE. MAY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR KICKS UP THE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
THE DEPARTING CANADIAN FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT
WILL TRAVEL THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...ENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE EAST...BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
FURTHER-UP...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN EXITS IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...WITH AN OMEGA HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND A POLAR CYCLONE OVER ONTARIO CANADA. THE OMEGA HIGH WILL
DRIFT EAST...AND DAMPEN...BEFORE REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE
ZONAL (OR HIGH INDEX) WAVE PATTERN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ONGOING. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR
BENCHMARK NORMALS. THE OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...ADVECTIVE COOLING WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE ADVECTIVE COOLING PERSISTS.
MARINE...
COLD AIR SPILLING OVER A RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE IS CREATING AN
UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT.
WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPIRE ACROSS VERMILION
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND
INTRACOASTAL CITY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FARSHORE WATERSFFOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...THE TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW THE PREDICTED
TIDES FOR TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY...
MOST NORTH-SOUTH RIVERS WILL FALL VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS.
TRARES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 35 57 32 60 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 36 57 30 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 32 52 28 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 34 54 31 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 200120
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONG NORTH NORTHWEST FETCH OF
WIND WITH A TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRARIES. WV/IR IMAGERY
SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH KEPT OUR TEMPS COMFORTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. ALL THAT DRYING HAS
RESULTED IN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE AREA.
COMBINING DEW PONTS 3 TO 5 DEGREES UNDER GUIDANCE WITH 50 TO 60
DECAMETER THICKNESS FALLS OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COOL ADVECTION, I
WILL NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP SO ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF U.S. HWY 190.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE-MORNING TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15
KNOTS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY MOST SITES (KAEX MAY BE
JUST A TAD LOWER).
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WELL AS THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE INNER WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TRIMMED BACK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PER
LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE. MAY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR KICKS UP THE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
THE DEPARTING CANADIAN FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT
WILL TRAVEL THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...ENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE EAST...BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
FURTHER-UP...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN EXITS IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...WITH AN OMEGA HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND A POLAR CYCLONE OVER ONTARIO CANADA. THE OMEGA HIGH WILL
DRIFT EAST...AND DAMPEN...BEFORE REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE
ZONAL (OR HIGH INDEX) WAVE PATTERN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ONGOING. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR
BENCHMARK NORMALS. THE OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...ADVECTIVE COOLING WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE ADVECTIVE COOLING PERSISTS.
MARINE...
COLD AIR SPILLING OVER A RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE IS CREATING AN
UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT.
WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPIRE ACROSS VERMILION
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND
INTRACOASTAL CITY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FARSHORE WATERSFFOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...THE TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW THE PREDICTED
TIDES FOR TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY...
MOST NORTH-SOUTH RIVERS WILL FALL VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS.
TRARES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 35 57 32 60 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 37 58 30 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 32 52 28 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 34 54 31 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 200037
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE-MORNING TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15
KNOTS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY MOST SITES (KAEX MAY BE
JUST A TAD LOWER).
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WELL AS THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE INNER WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TRIMMED BACK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PER
LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE. MAY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR KICKS UP THE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
THE DEPARTING CANADIAN FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT
WILL TRAVEL THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...ENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE EAST...BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
FURTHER-UP...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN EXITS IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...WITH AN OMEGA HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND A POLAR CYCLONE OVER ONTARIO CANADA. THE OMEGA HIGH WILL
DRIFT EAST...AND DAMPEN...BEFORE REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE
ZONAL (OR HIGH INDEX) WAVE PATTERN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ONGOING. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR
BENCHMARK NORMALS. THE OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...ADVECTIVE COOLING WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE ADVECTIVE COOLING PERSISTS.
MARINE...
COLD AIR SPILLING OVER A RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE IS CREATING AN
UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT.
WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPIRE ACROSS VERMILION
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND
INTRACOASTAL CITY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FARSHORE WATERSFFOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...THE TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW THE PREDICTED
TIDES FOR TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY...
MOST NORTH-SOUTH RIVERS WILL FALL VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 37 57 32 60 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 38 57 30 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 33 52 28 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 36 54 31 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 200032
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WELL AS THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE INNER WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TRIMMED BACK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PER
LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE. MAY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR KICKS UP THE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
THE DEPARTING CANADIAN FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT
WILL TRAVEL THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...ENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE EAST...BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
FURTHER-UP...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN EXITS IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...WITH AN OMEGA HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND A POLAR CYCLONE OVER ONTARIO CANADA. THE OMEGA HIGH WILL
DRIFT EAST...AND DAMPEN...BEFORE REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE
ZONAL (OR HIGH INDEX) WAVE PATTERN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ONGOING. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR
BENCHMARK NORMALS. THE OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...ADVECTIVE COOLING WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE ADVECTIVE COOLING PERSISTS.
MARINE...
COLD AIR SPILLING OVER A RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE IS CREATING AN
UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT.
WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPIRE ACROSS VERMILION
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND
INTRACOASTAL CITY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FARSHORE WATERSFFOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...THE TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW THE PREDICTED
TIDES FOR TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY...
MOST NORTH-SOUTH RIVERS WILL FALL VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 37 57 32 60 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 38 57 30 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 33 52 28 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 36 54 31 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 192030
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
230 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEPARTING CANADIAN FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT
WILL TRAVEL THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...ENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE EAST...BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
FURTHER-UP...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN EXITS IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...WITH AN OMEGA HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND A POLAR CYCLONE OVER ONTARIO CANADA. THE OMEGA HIGH WILL
DRIFT EAST...AND DAMPEN...BEFORE REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE
ZONAL (OR HIGH INDEX) WAVE PATTERN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ONGOING. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR
BENCHMARK NORMALS. THE OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...ADVECTIVE COOLING WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE ADVECTIVE COOLING PERSISTS.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD AIR SPILLING OVER A RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE IS CREATING AN
UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT.
WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPIRE ACROSS VERMILION
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND
INTRACOASTAL CITY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FARSHORE WATERSFFOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...THE TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW THE PREDICTED
TIDES FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MOST NORTH-SOUTH RIVERS WILL FALL VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 37 58 32 60 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 38 60 30 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 33 53 28 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 36 54 31 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
VERMILION.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY.
&&
TRARES
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191737
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1137 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. WITH CIRRUS HAVING NOW EXITED THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL BE SEEING CLEAR SKIES AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN AT ALL LEVELS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LOOK FOR SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. GENERAL
WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL HOVER AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE RUC 15Z CYCLE RUN COMPUTES STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND VICINITY. ISSUED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL MARSHES AND
ADJACENT WATERS.
OTHERWISE...ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
DRY WEATHER THE MAIN STORY. FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOWING UP
WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL BRING RH VALUES IN
THE 25-35% RANGE FOR A TIME IN NORTHERN ZONES SUGGESTING A
SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK OF FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...AREA KEETCH BYRAM INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 200 AND THUS
PLENTIFUL SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN
ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCING BY THURSDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS KEEPING US IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WHILE
ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND RISING SEAS.
HAVE HOISTED SCA FLAGS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY UP
TOMORROW AND AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA IS POSSIBLE. BY MIDWEEK WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 36 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 67 37 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 60 33 53 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 63 35 55 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
VERMILION.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191629
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE RUC 15Z CYCLE RUN COMPUTES STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND VICINITY. ISSUED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL MARSHES AND
ADJACENT WATERS.
OTHERWISE...ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
DRY WEATHER THE MAIN STORY. FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOWING UP
WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL BRING RH VALUES IN
THE 25-35% RANGE FOR A TIME IN NORTHERN ZONES SUGGESTING A
SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK OF FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...AREA KEETCH BYRAM INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 200 AND THUS
PLENTIFUL SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN
ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCING BY THURSDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS KEEPING US IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WHILE
ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND RISING SEAS.
HAVE HOISTED SCA FLAGS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY UP
TOMORROW AND AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA IS POSSIBLE. BY MIDWEEK WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 36 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 67 37 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 60 33 53 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 63 35 55 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
VERMILION.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191001
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
401 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
DRY WEATHER THE MAIN STORY. FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOWING UP
WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL BRING RH VALUES IN
THE 25-35% RANGE FOR A TIME IN NORTHERN ZONES SUGGESTING A
SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK OF FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...AREA KEETCH BYRAM INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 200 AND THUS
PLENTIFUL SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN
ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCING BY THURSDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS KEEPING US IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WHILE
ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND RISING SEAS.
HAVE HOISTED SCA FLAGS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY UP
TOMORROW AND AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA IS POSSIBLE. BY MIDWEEK WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 36 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 67 37 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 60 33 53 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 63 35 55 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
000
FXUS64 KLCH 190538
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL BE STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SFC TROF AND ITS REINFORCING COOL BLAST.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL BE STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SFC TROF AND ITS REINFORCING COOL BLAST.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 30 AND 36. ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN
CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
BEFORE THE MONDAY NOON HOUR.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL BE STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SFC TROF AND ITS REINFORCING COOL BLAST.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT NOW CLEARED THE COASTAL WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...MAYBE TOUCHING THE UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUT OFF ANY MOISTURE
RETURN FLOW AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FILTER ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT TUE MORNING. THE HIGH BEHIND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION (EXCEPT COASTAL PARISHES
AND COUNTIES) FOR WED MORNING.
BY THU...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THU AND
FRI...AND MORE WSW BY THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MORE EAST PACIFIC
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT TODAY...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES
IN TIMING BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ENDING THE PRECIP. FOR THIS...LEFT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT THE FROPA FOR SUN.
DML
MARINE...
GRADIENT BEHIND COOL FRONT THIS MORNING NOT VERY STRONG...ONLY
PRODUCING A MODEST NW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT AN INCREASED NW FLOW WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BY TUE MORNING...WITH SCA CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MEET.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 43 65 38 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 43 67 37 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 39 61 33 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 43 64 36 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 190536
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1136 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL BE STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SFC TROF AND ITS REINFORCING COOL BLAST.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 30 AND 36. ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN
CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
BEFORE THE MONDAY NOON HOUR.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL BE STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SFC TROF AND ITS REINFORCING COOL BLAST.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT NOW CLEARED THE COASTAL WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...MAYBE TOUCHING THE UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUT OFF ANY MOISTURE
RETURN FLOW AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FILTER ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT TUE MORNING. THE HIGH BEHIND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION (EXCEPT COASTAL PARISHES
AND COUNTIES) FOR WED MORNING.
BY THU...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THU AND
FRI...AND MORE WSW BY THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MORE EAST PACIFIC
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT TODAY...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES
IN TIMING BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ENDING THE PRECIP. FOR THIS...LEFT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT THE FROPA FOR SUN.
DML
MARINE...
GRADIENT BEHIND COOL FRONT THIS MORNING NOT VERY STRONG...ONLY
PRODUCING A MODEST NW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT AN INCREASED NW FLOW WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BY TUE MORNING...WITH SCA CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MEET.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 43 65 38 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 43 67 37 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 39 61 33 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 43 64 36 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 190139
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
739 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 30 AND 36. ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN
CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
BEFORE THE MONDAY NOON HOUR.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL BE STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SFC TROF AND ITS REINFORCING COOL BLAST.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT NOW CLEARED THE COASTAL WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...MAYBE TOUCHING THE UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUT OFF ANY MOISTURE
RETURN FLOW AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FILTER ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT TUE MORNING. THE HIGH BEHIND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION (EXCEPT COASTAL PARISHES
AND COUNTIES) FOR WED MORNING.
BY THU...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THU AND
FRI...AND MORE WSW BY THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MORE EAST PACIFIC
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT TODAY...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES
IN TIMING BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ENDING THE PRECIP. FOR THIS...LEFT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT THE FROPA FOR SUN.
DML
MARINE...
GRADIENT BEHIND COOL FRONT THIS MORNING NOT VERY STRONG...ONLY
PRODUCING A MODEST NW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT AN INCREASED NW FLOW WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BY TUE MORNING...WITH SCA CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MEET.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 43 65 38 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 44 66 37 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 39 61 33 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 43 64 36 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 182337
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL BE STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SFC TROF AND ITS REINFORCING COOL BLAST.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT NOW CLEARED THE COASTAL WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...MAYBE TOUCHING THE UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUT OFF ANY MOISTURE
RETURN FLOW AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FILTER ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT TUE MORNING. THE HIGH BEHIND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION (EXCEPT COASTAL PARISHES
AND COUNTIES) FOR WED MORNING.
BY THU...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THU AND
FRI...AND MORE WSW BY THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MORE EAST PACIFIC
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT TODAY...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES
IN TIMING BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ENDING THE PRECIP. FOR THIS...LEFT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT THE FROPA FOR SUN.
DML
MARINE...
GRADIENT BEHIND COOL FRONT THIS MORNING NOT VERY STRONG...ONLY
PRODUCING A MODEST NW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT AN INCREASED NW FLOW WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BY TUE MORNING...WITH SCA CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MEET.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 45 66 38 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 46 66 37 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 41 64 33 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 44 65 36 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 182143
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT NOW CLEARED THE COASTAL WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...MAYBE TOUCHING THE UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUT OFF ANY MOISTURE
RETURN FLOW AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FILTER ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT TUE MORNING. THE HIGH BEHIND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION (EXCEPT COASTAL PARISHES
AND COUNTIES) FOR WED MORNING.
BY THU...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THU AND
FRI...AND MORE WSW BY THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MORE EAST PACIFIC
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT TODAY...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES
IN TIMING BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ENDING THE PRECIP. FOR THIS...LEFT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT THE FROPA FOR SUN.
DML
&&
.MARINE...
GRADIENT BEHIND COOL FRONT THIS MORNING NOT VERY STRONG...ONLY
PRODUCING A MODEST NW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT AN INCREASED NW FLOW WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BY TUE MORNING...WITH SCA CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MEET.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 45 66 38 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 46 66 37 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 41 64 33 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 44 65 36 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181738
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING...
IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY INACTIVE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY MORNING.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT...AS SURFACE WINDS
RETURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...
COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF ATCHAFALAYA AND
VERMILION BAYS. THIS WILL BE ENDING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE...CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE. UPDATES ISSUED WERE MAINLY FOR THIS
MORNING REMOVING POPS INLAND...AND ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER CLEARING LINE.
DML
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPDATED THE ZONES AND THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRIER AIR MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE
TO CAMERON LINE. ALSO...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER AS ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RUA
AVIATION...
SHRA THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH SKC ALREADY HAVING
REACHED KAEX. ONLY IMPACTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL
BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE SKC ARRIVES. WNW TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THIS EARLY MORNING IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MUCH DRIER AIR IS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 30S.
SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PUSHING A WEAK
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE.
RUA
DISCUSSION...
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY...AND HAVE
REACHED ROUGHLY A MARKSVILLE TO OAKDALE TO BEAUMONT LINE BY 12Z
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FRONT AND CLEARING
LINE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR EXTREME LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL LATE MORNING.
WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND DRY AIR...LOW DEWPOINTS MOVING
IN...ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT READINGS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DEEP AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS UPPER LOW PREVAILS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE ON MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR COLDEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF COMMENCES.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRENGTH OF AND
TIMING OF COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE COAST WITH OVER-RUNNING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
RUA
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A MAINLY NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THESE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE STRONGER. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 41 68 40 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
KBPT 73 41 70 40 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
KAEX 67 39 64 36 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
KLFT 69 41 65 41 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181557
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
957 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF ATCHAFALAYA AND
VERMILION BAYS. THIS WILL BE ENDING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE...CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE. UPDATES ISSUED WERE MAINLY FOR THIS
MORNING REMOVING POPS INLAND...AND ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER CLEARING LINE.
DML
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPDATED THE ZONES AND THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRIER AIR MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE
TO CAMERON LINE. ALSO...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER AS ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RUA
AVIATION...
SHRA THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH SKC ALREADY HAVING
REACHED KAEX. ONLY IMPACTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL
BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE SKC ARRIVES. WNW TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THIS EARLY MORNING IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MUCH DRIER AIR IS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 30S.
SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PUSHING A WEAK
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE.
RUA
DISCUSSION...
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY...AND HAVE
REACHED ROUGHLY A MARKSVILLE TO OAKDALE TO BEAUMONT LINE BY 12Z
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FRONT AND CLEARING
LINE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR EXTREME LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL LATE MORNING.
WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND DRY AIR...LOW DEWPOINTS MOVING
IN...ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT READINGS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DEEP AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS UPPER LOW PREVAILS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE ON MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR COLDEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF COMMENCES.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRENGTH OF AND
TIMING OF COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE COAST WITH OVER-RUNNING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
RUA
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A MAINLY NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THESE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE STRONGER. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 41 68 40 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
KBPT 73 41 70 40 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
KAEX 67 39 64 36 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
KLFT 69 41 65 41 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181240
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPDATED THE ZONES AND THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRIER AIR MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE
TO CAMERON LINE. ALSO...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER AS ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RUA
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH SKC ALREADY HAVING
REACHED KAEX. ONLY IMPACTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL
BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE SKC ARRIVES. WNW TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THIS EARLY MORNING IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MUCH DRIER AIR IS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 30S.
SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PUSHING A WEAK
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE.
RUA
DISCUSSION...
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY...AND HAVE
REACHED ROUGHLY A MARKSVILLE TO OAKDALE TO BEAUMONT LINE BY 12Z
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FRONT AND CLEARING
LINE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR EXTREME LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL LATE MORNING.
WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND DRY AIR...LOW DEWPOINTS MOVING
IN...ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT READINGS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DEEP AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS UPPER LOW PREVAILS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE ON MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR COLDEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF COMMENCES.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRENGTH OF AND
TIMING OF COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE COAST WITH OVER-RUNNING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
RUA
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A MAINLY NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THESE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE STRONGER. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 41 68 40 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
KBPT 73 41 70 40 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
KAEX 67 39 64 36 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
KLFT 69 41 65 41 59 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181002
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THIS EARLY MORNING IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MUCH DRIER AIR IS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 30S.
SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PUSHING A WEAK
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE.
RUA
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY...AND HAVE
REACHED ROUGHLY A MARKSVILLE TO OAKDALE TO BEAUMONT LINE BY 12Z
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FRONT AND CLEARING
LINE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR EXTREME LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL LATE MORNING.
WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND DRY AIR...LOW DEWPOINTS MOVING
IN...ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT READINGS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DEEP AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS UPPER LOW PREVAILS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE ON MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR COLDEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF COMMENCES.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRENGTH OF AND
TIMING OF COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE COAST WITH OVER-RUNNING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
RUA
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A MAINLY NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THESE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE STRONGER. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 41 68 40 60 / 20 0 0 0 0
KBPT 73 41 70 40 63 / 20 0 0 0 0
KAEX 67 39 64 36 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
KLFT 69 41 65 41 59 / 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180125
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
725 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...AREA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM SHOWS A LITTLE BIT LOWER STRATOCU HEADING
THIS WAY WITH CEILINGS JUST STAYING IN THE VFR CATEGORY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER SRLY WINDS LINGER JUST OFF THE SURFACE HELPING TO PILE UP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ATTM CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS FAR AS HOW
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
EXPECTED FROPA SUNDAY MORNING...THUS HELD POPS TO ONLY A VICINITY
MENTION ATTM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3500-8000FT HAS CONTINUED
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED WAA AND OCCASIONAL
PEAKS OF THE SUN...TEMPS MANAGED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S
ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...BUT REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACROSS
C AND SC LA WHERE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER PREVAILED WITH LESS WAA.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK
SUN MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL ONLY YIELD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FURTHER
EAST...WHICH WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS SUN. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO
THE DRIER AIR...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID/UPPER
60S SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S FOR
MON MORNING.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER WEAK BUT MULTIPLE
SHOTS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...
KEEPING TEMPS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENDS BY
THU...AS BOTH MODELS YIELD COMPLETELY OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT WITH THE CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR NEXT THU NIGHT...WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF SHOWING A MUCH
MORE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE SVR WEATHER LATE FRI.
SINCE THE ECMWF SHOWED SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUN...DECIDED TO NOT USE THIS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND
LEFT THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR LATE THU INTO FRI.
DML
MARINE...
SE WINDS 15KT AND GUSTY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5KT LOWER ACROSS THE 0-20NM AND
INLAND LAKES AND BAYS ZONES DUE TO COLDER WATERS STABILIZING THE
MARINE LAYER. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO GRADIENT STAYING UP OVERNIGHT...AND
THE FACT THAT THE DEWPTS WILL NOT LIKELY EXCEED THE SFC WATER
TEMPS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 52 69 42 66 41 / 20 10 10 0 0
KBPT 53 71 42 67 42 / 10 10 10 0 0
KAEX 49 68 38 64 37 / 30 10 10 0 0
KLFT 51 67 41 66 41 / 20 20 10 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180119
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
719 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CROSSING THE RED RIVER
INTO TEXAS IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNIMPRESSIVE AND WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MAINLY AVIATION INTERESTS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF
THIS FRONT IN THE SECTOR MOVING INTO TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUDDAY. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET OFFSHORE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
LEFT REAR QUADRANT. WILL TRIM BACK ON THE POPS AND TWEAK TEMPS
UPWARD DUE TO A LACK OF COOL ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3500-8000FT HAS CONTINUED
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED WAA AND OCCASIONAL
PEAKS OF THE SUN...TEMPS MANAGED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S
ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...BUT REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACROSS
C AND SC LA WHERE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER PREVAILED WITH LESS WAA.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK
SUN MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL ONLY YIELD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FURTHER
EAST...WHICH WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS SUN. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO
THE DRIER AIR...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID/UPPER
60S SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S FOR
MON MORNING.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER WEAK BUT MULTIPLE
SHOTS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...
KEEPING TEMPS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENDS BY
THU...AS BOTH MODELS YIELD COMPLETELY OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT WITH THE CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR NEXT THU NIGHT...WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF SHOWING A MUCH
MORE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE SVR WEATHER LATE FRI.
SINCE THE ECMWF SHOWED SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUN...DECIDED TO NOT USE THIS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND
LEFT THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR LATE THU INTO FRI.
DML
MARINE...
SE WINDS 15KT AND GUSTY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5KT LOWER ACROSS THE 0-20NM AND
INLAND LAKES AND BAYS ZONES DUE TO COLDER WATERS STABILIZING THE
MARINE LAYER. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO GRADIENT STAYING UP OVERNIGHT...AND
THE FACT THAT THE DEWPTS WILL NOT LIKELY EXCEED THE SFC WATER
TEMPS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 52 69 42 66 41 / 20 10 10 0 0
KBPT 53 70 42 67 42 / 10 10 10 0 0
KAEX 49 68 38 64 37 / 30 10 10 0 0
KLFT 51 67 41 66 41 / 20 20 10 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 172154
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3500-8000FT HAS CONTINUED
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED WAA AND OCCASIONAL
PEAKS OF THE SUN...TEMPS MANAGED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S
ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...BUT REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACROSS
C AND SC LA WHERE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER PREVAILED WITH LESS WAA.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK
SUN MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL ONLY YIELD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FURTHER
EAST...WHICH WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS SUN. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO
THE DRIER AIR...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID/UPPER
60S SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S FOR
MON MORNING.
DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS THE WIND
PATTER ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
EAST COAST TROF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER WEAK BUT MULTIPLE
SHOTS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...
KEEPING TEMPS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENDS BY
THU...AS BOTH MODELS YIELD COMPLETELY OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT WITH THE CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR NEXT THU NIGHT...WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF SHOWING A MUCH
MORE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE SVR WEATHER LATE FRI.
SINCE THE ECMWF SHOWED SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUN...DECIDED TO NOT USE THIS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND
LEFT THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR LATE THU INTO FRI.
DML
&&
.MARINE...
SE WINDS 15KT AND GUSTY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5KT LOWER ACROSS THE 0-20NM AND
INLAND LAKES AND BAYS ZONES DUE TO COLDER WATERS STABILIZING THE
MARINE LAYER. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO GRADIENT STAYING UP OVERNIGHT...AND
THE FACT THAT THE DEWPTS WILL NOT LIKELY EXCEED THE SFC WATER
TEMPS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 52 68 42 66 41 / 30 20 10 0 0
KBPT 52 68 42 67 42 / 20 20 10 0 0
KAEX 48 67 38 64 37 / 40 20 10 0 0
KLFT 51 66 41 66 41 / 30 30 10 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 171805
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
ADVECTING ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS (OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS) CONTINUES TO
STREAM EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS EVENING...AS
FRESHENING GULF BREEZES ACCUMULATE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION PROBLEM WILL BE LIFR CEILINGS...EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY DUE TO THE SUSTAINED GULF BREEZES.
THE SECOND AVIATION PROBLEM WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS...EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND
EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND MIDMORNING.
THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
LIMITED MOISTURE...MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MODEST FRONTAL
LIFT. BELIEVE THAT SCATTERED SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT...QUICKLY ENDING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ~8000-9000 FT HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS UP EARLIER THIS MORNING. SINCE THEN...SE
FLOW HAS COMMENCED OVER SE TX...WITH EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK
OVER SE TX...ADVANCING EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THIS...ALONG WITH THE WAA...WILL HAVE TO
BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED WITH THE
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE JUST COMING OUT. ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER MADE TO FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...THAT HELPED PRODUCE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES. ALSO...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
RUA
DISCUSSION...
THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL HELP PUSH FIRST A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROF...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WITH GOOD MOISTURE THROUGH
70H. THIS CORRESPONDS TO PWAT VALUES AROUND ONE INCH AND MEAN RH
NEARING 70 PERCENT. PROGGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROF THAT SCATTERED...MAINLY LIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WANE AS SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON...ENDING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DRIER AND
COOLER AIR.
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WARM BY THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AT
THE SURFACE.
RUA
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE ON
MONDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INCREASES THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ON TUESDAY.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 63 54 67 42 61 / 0 30 20 0 0
KBPT 65 55 68 42 64 / 0 30 20 0 0
KAEX 60 48 62 37 57 / 0 40 20 0 0
KLFT 62 52 65 41 57 / 0 20 40 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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