000
FXUS63 KLBF 200900
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ATTM WITH
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROF IN THE EAST...LEAVING
MODERATELY FAST MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSLATE TOWARD ROCKIES TODAY WHILE STRONGEST ENERGY IN TROF
LIFTS ALONG LEADING EDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD BRING
A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER AND LOWER
PRESSURE GRAD RELAXES AND WAA REPLACES THE CAA IN LLVLS. AS A RESULT
OF STRONG INSOLATION AS WELL TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND LOWER 50S
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHICH IS A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...DISCUSSION BELOW. DEAMPLIFICATION OF
RIDGE BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP WESTERLY COMPENENT TO
WINDS FROM H5 DOWN WARD LEAVING ANOTHER WARM DAY IN PLACE. AGAIN
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THIS VERY DRY REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH 60S SOUTH 50S NORTH. THURSDAY TO BE TRANSITION DAY AS RIDGE IS
FLATTENED COMPLETELY AND POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER HBAY REGION. COLD FRONT SHOULD FLY THROUGH CWA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BRING WINTER BACK TO REALITY. MUCH COOLER FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AND CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS ON TRACK AS SFC FRONT SETTLES TO
THE WEST AND CONTINUOUS UPGLIDE BEGINS TO SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN.
ATTM MED RANGE SOLNS INDICATING SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ACCUM SNOWFALL FROM HIGH PLAINS INTO MO VALLEY BUT
THIS FAR OUT WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM 330-350 OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE TERMINALS KLBF
AND KVTN. FOR CEILING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL TO
INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS EAST OF KANW AND KBBW AND MAY INCLUDE KONL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...APPROXIMATELY
SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 2 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR GREATER IS LOW. FOR NOW
THEN...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED MONITORING OF THE SITUATION AND HIT THE FIRE
DANGER FAIRLY HARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LOW RH...BUT WIND BELOW THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
13/SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 192359
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
559 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO DROP RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
..MILD WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE FIRE DANGER
REMAINING VERY HIGH IN WESTERN AREAS...
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SOME WEAK CAA TODAY HAS LIMITED HIGHS. TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OUT OR
EVEN FALLEN BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM 2 TO 3 PM. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM AS KIML RELATIVE HUMIDITY STILL NEAR 15 PERCENT
WITH NNW WINDS 31KTS GUSTING TO 36 KTS. CURRENT WINDS ARE NEAR OR
ABOVE WIND ADVY CRITERIA. WILL LIKELY KEEP ADVY GOING TIL EXPIRATION
AT 00Z.
TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS IN STORE. A MILD THERMAL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN NEBR. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
FA. SWRN NEBR WILL EVEN APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN DUE TO THESE WARM OF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AS MILD AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD UP
THE HIGH PLAINS AS WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUITE ZONAL. HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY FROM 55 TO 60 NCTRL AND 60 TO 68 SOUTH. A VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE IN WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY...AS UPPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FULLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
FINISH MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ABOUT 7 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NCTRL TO 55-60 SOUTH.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN MODIFIED
CANADIAN POLAR AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE ARCTIC COLD...BUT WILL
BRING DOWN HIGHS AROUND 25 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. MIXING DOWN
H925MB TEMPS BRINGS LOWER TO MID 20S NCTRL AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL WITH ENHANCED CHCS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND WARMING
SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SUNDAY. NEXT REINFORCING COLD
AIR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE FOR KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. MODELS ARE PUSHING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THAT CORROLATES WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
NOW PUHSING SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW
CEILING COULD MOVE INTO THE VTN TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOR NOW
SEE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST TO IMPEDE THE WESTERN
EXPANSION OF THE LOW CEILING. OVERNIGHT WINDS DIMINISH AND ARE
PROJECTED TO BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY THAT WILL
LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF AFTERNOON DRYING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WITH NO
HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 MST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...POWER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 192103
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
...MILD WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE FIRE DANGER
REMAINING VERY HIGH IN WESTERN AREAS...
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SOME WEAK CAA TODAY HAS LIMITED HIGHS. TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OUT OR
EVEN FALLEN BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM 2 TO 3 PM. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM AS KIML RELATIVE HUMIDITY STILL NEAR 15 PERCENT
WITH NNW WINDS 31KTS GUSTING TO 36 KTS. CURRENT WINDS ARE NEAR OR
ABOVE WIND ADVY CRITERIA. WILL LIKELY KEEP ADVY GOING TIL EXPIRATION
AT 00Z.
TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS IN STORE. A MILD THERMAL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN NEBR. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
FA. SWRN NEBR WILL EVEN APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN DUE TO THESE WARM OF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AS MILD AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD UP
THE HIGH PLAINS AS WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUITE ZONAL. HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY FROM 55 TO 60 NCTRL AND 60 TO 68 SOUTH. A VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE IN WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY...AS UPPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FULLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
FINISH MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ABOUT 7 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NCTRL TO 55-60 SOUTH.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN MODIFIED
CANADIAN POLAR AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE ARCTIC COLD...BUT WILL
BRING DOWN HIGHS AROUND 25 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. MIXING DOWN
H925MB TEMPS BRINGS LOWER TO MID 20S NCTRL AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL WITH ENHANCED CHCS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND WARMING
SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SUNDAY. NEXT REINFORCING COLD
AIR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE FOR KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. MODELS ARE PUSHING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THAT CORROLATES WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
NOW PUHSING SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW
CEILING COULD MOVE INTO THE VTN TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOR NOW
SEE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST TO IMPEDE THE WESTERN
EXPANSION OF THE LOW CEILING. OVERNIGHT WINDS DIMINISH AND ARE
PROJECTED TO BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY THAT WILL
LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF AFTERNOON DRYING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WITH NO
HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 MST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-
035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ204-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...ROBERG
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KECK
000
FXUS63 KLBF 191835 AAA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
AT 18Z DRIER AIR HAD WEDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT ACROSS CHASE COUNTY. THE RUC SOLUTION
SHOWS THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SPREADING EAST ALONG THE STATELINE
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH APPEAR UNDERDONE. THEREFORE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 210 AND 204 WITH THE
GREATEST RISK TO EXTEND ACROSS DEUEL COUNTY EAST TO HIGHWAY 61.
AFTER 5 PM WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO
REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES FROM CANADIAN PRAIRIES DOWN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CONUS INTO
NW TERRITORIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK IN THE MINUS 45 DEGREE
RANGE ARE NOW AROUND 45. EASTERN CONUS PAYING FOR THE WARM AIR TO
THE WEST WITH DEEPLY CARVED OUT TROF EXTENDING FROM POLAR VORTEX
NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW HAD HELPED WINDS INCREASE TO ADVY CRIT PAST FEW DAYS
AND EXPECT THE SAME TODAY WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES WITH WEAK CAA
HELPING TO BRING WINDS DOWN. GUIDANCE HINTING AT THIS THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND WILL COVER WHOLE OF CWA THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY
WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA. GOES DPI SHOWING MOISTURE PLUME ROUNDING
WESTERN RIDGE AND DROPPING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WHERE STRATUS DECK
HAS FORMED ALONG ARCTIC SFC BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWING NEXT
IMPULSE RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND WILL PUSH
WEAK FRONT THROUGH CWA TODAY AND ALLOW THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WAVER
BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEB THIS AFTERNOON. PAST FEW FORECASTS HAVE
ENDED UP TO COOL AND WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TODAY...BUT
THIS MAY NOT PAN OUT IN FAR NORTHEAST IF CLOUDS PERSIST INTO
AFTERNOON AND STRONGER GFS SOLN VERIFIES WITH STRONGER CAA. SHOULD
STILL SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH RH LEVEL APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS AND STRONG WINDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO TAKE A BREAK
FROM THE WINDS AND RIDGE TRANSLATES ENOUGH TO PUSH CORE OF WINDS TO
THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WTH READINGS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO POSSIBLY THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THIS
WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL
OFFSET THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER RH LEVELS. BIGGEST CHANGE LOOKS TO
BE ON THURSDAY WITH MODEL AGREEMENT OF SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
AND HAVE WARMED UP THURSDAY AND DELAYED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.
AVIATION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW LOW CEILINGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-BBW LINE. CEILINGS BELOW
INSTRUMENT THRESHOLDS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO REACH AS FAR WEST AS VTN AND LBF...SO THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS DO NOT REFLECT IT.
AS YESTERDAY...WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH 320-350 AT
25-35KT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CROSS WIND EXCEEDING THE
THRESHOLDS FOR SMALL GENERAL AVIATION AND ROTARY WING AIRCRAFT...BUT
THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS CROSS WIND COMPONENT FOR AIRFIELDS WITH
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RUNWAYS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE WIND INCREASES UNIFORMLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 2000 FT AGL WITH UP
TO 50KT IN THE 1800-2000 FT LAYER...SO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 15 PERCENT
IN THE IMPERIAL AREA...BUT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...IT SHOULD STAY IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. NORTHWEST WIND
IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH IN FREQUENT GUSTS LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE WIND WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF FIRE DANGER. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND WILL
BE THE ONLY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE
HEADLINES. IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THOUGH. MUCH LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WIND WILL BE WELL
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ204 AND 210.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
FIRE WEATHER...KECK
000
FXUS63 KLBF 190911
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES FROM CANADIAN PRAIRIES DOWN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CONUS INTO
NW TERRITORIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK IN THE MINUS 45 DEGREE
RANGE ARE NOW AROUND 45. EASTERN CONUS PAYING FOR THE WARM AIR TO
THE WEST WITH DEEPLY CARVED OUT TROF EXTENDING FROM POLAR VORTEX
NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW HAD HELPED WINDS INCREASE TO ADVY CRIT PAST FEW DAYS
AND EXPECT THE SAME TODAY WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES WITH WEAK CAA
HELPING TO BRING WINDS DOWN. GUIDANCE HINTING AT THIS THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND WILL COVER WHOLE OF CWA THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY
WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA. GOES DPI SHOWING MOISTURE PLUME ROUNDING
WESTERN RIDGE AND DROPPING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WHERE STRATUS DECK
HAS FORMED ALONG ARCTIC SFC BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWING NEXT
IMPULSE RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND WILL PUSH
WEAK FRONT THROUGH CWA TODAY AND ALLOW THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WAVER
BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEB THIS AFTERNOON. PAST FEW FORECASTS HAVE
ENDED UP TO COOL AND WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TODAY...BUT
THIS MAY NOT PAN OUT IN FAR NORTHEAST IF CLOUDS PERSIST INTO
AFTERNOON AND STRONGER GFS SOLN VERIFIES WITH STRONGER CAA. SHOULD
STILL SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH RH LEVEL APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS AND STRONG WINDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO TAKE A BREAK
FROM THE WINDS AND RIDGE TRANSLATES ENOUGH TO PUSH CORE OF WINDS TO
THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WTH READINGS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO POSSIBLY THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THIS
WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL
OFFSET THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER RH LEVELS. BIGGEST CHANGE LOOKS TO
BE ON THURSDAY WITH MODEL AGREEMENT OF SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
AND HAVE WARMED UP THURSDAY AND DELAYED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW LOW CEILINGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-BBW LINE. CEILINGS BELOW
INSTRUMENT THRESHOLDS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO REACH AS FAR WEST AS VTN AND LBF...SO THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS DO NOT REFLECT IT.
AS YESTERDAY...WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH 320-350 AT
25-35KT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CROSS WIND EXCEEDING THE
THRESHOLDS FOR SMALL GENERAL AVIATION AND ROTARY WING AIRCRAFT...BUT
THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS CROSS WIND COMPONENT FOR AIRFIELDS WITH
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RUNWAYS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE WIND INCREASES UNIFORMLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 2000 FT AGL WITH UP
TO 50KT IN THE 1800-2000 FT LAYER...SO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 15 PERCENT
IN THE IMPERIAL AREA...BUT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...IT SHOULD STAY IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. NORTHWEST WIND
IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH IN FREQUENT GUSTS LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE WIND WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF FIRE DANGER. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND WILL
BE THE ONLY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE
HEADLINES. IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THOUGH. MUCH LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WIND WILL BE WELL
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056>058-069-094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.
&&
$$
13/SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 182049
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
249 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
...MILD WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRE DANGER
REMAINING HIGH...
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
HIGHS TODAY REACHED 45 NORTHEAST...MID 50S CENTRAL SANDHILLS...60 TO
65 SOUTHWEST. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH WEAK CAA INTO THE NCTRL. A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS ARE
MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. CURRENT WINDS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE WIND
ADVY CRITERIA ACROSS WRN NEBR. WILL LIKELY KEEP ADVY GOING TIL
EXPIRATION AT 00Z.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL TAPER OFF TO BREEZY THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE 30S MOST OF NIGHT. SOME DECOUPLING TOWARD SUNRISE SHOULD SEE
LOWS DIPPING TO THE MID/UPPER 20S. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE DROPPING OUT OF MANITOBA TONIGHT. MONDAY...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA ACROSS FA. A VERY
AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH STILL PERSISTS. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER WIND ADVY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ENTIRE FA AN WILL LET NEXT
FCST SHIFT ISSUE IF NECESSARY. FCST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM FROM MID 40S
NORTHEAST...MID 50S CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. LOOK LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SCT CIRRUS
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS IN STORE. A MILD THERMAL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN NEBR. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
FA. SWRN NEBR WILL EVEN APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN DUE TO THESE WARM OF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE AS WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUITE ZONAL.
LIMITING WARMUP WILL BE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS. THUS HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY FROM
AROUND 50 NORTHEAST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND 60 TO 65
SOUTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT.
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH UPPER 30S NCTRL TO MID 40S
SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
FRONTOGENESIS AND CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. A SRN STREAM TROUGH MAY BRING A
CONTINUED CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...IT APPEARS THAT A
LONG DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW CHCS COULD YIELD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY...A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL UNFOLD BEGINNING
THURSDAY WITH AN ESTABLISHED HUDSON BAY LOW AN TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE WRN UNITED STATES
BRINGING SNOW TO THE ROCKIES AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEYOND 21Z. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THAT COULD BRING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT THAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS TERMINAL KVTN. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP AS THEY CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. THE 18Z NAM12 SOLUTION POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER RH TO 90
PERCENT INTO NORTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY THAT COULD MATERIALIZE INTO
MVFR CEILING OVERNIGHT FROM 03Z TO 09Z FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS RETREAT EASTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR VISUAL
FLIGHT RULES THROUGHOUT. MONDAY THE TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WEST BY NOONTIME
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 35 MPH FOR KVTN AND KLBF
TERMINALS THROUGH 19/2100Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED DAILY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST AND
BREAK DOWN. THIS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE INTO THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
BLOWING AT 20 TO 35 MPH AS OF 20Z. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIR TO REMAIN TO THE EAST THAT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AGAIN MONDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATING
CURING OF FIRE RELATED FUELS. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE USED IF BURNING
OUTDOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NO FIRE RELATED HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...ROBERG
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KECK
000
FXUS63 KLBF 180923
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE IN MID LEVELS THANKS TO HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG WEST COAST AND DEEP TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. CENTRAL PLAINS RIGHT ON THE CUSP BETWEEN TWO INFLUENCES WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE FROM MN TO JUST EAST OF MO RIVER AND WARMER AIR
ALONG FRONT RANGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP LARGE SPREAD
ACROSS LBF CWA TODAY WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FLOW IS EXTREMELY DRY
WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN BACK SIDE OF RIDGE IN
FORM OF CIRRUS. MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND PROBABLY AGAIN ON MONDAY WILL
BE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN 2/3 OF CWA. WARMING LLVL TEMPS WITH WEAK
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW GOOD MIXING WITH BUFKIT SHOWING
LOWER END ADVISORY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. NO SLAM DUNK
BUT A FEW PLACES SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AOA 30MPH FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS PLAINS INTO
MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH APPROACHING E.PAC
SYSTEM AND CHANNELIZED ENERGY CONTINUES TO KEEP TROF CARVED ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS INTO GULF. NAM/GFS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT WITH STRONGER
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH W.GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MO VALLEY ON MONDAY
WITH GFS SHOWING QUICKER AND STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH MID DAY.
AS A RESULT COLDER AIR IS FILTERING INTO NE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NAM NOT AS ROBUST WITH WAVE AND WITH FROPA COLD AIR NOT
AS AGRESSIVE. IMPACT SEEMS SMALL ATTM AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR
PERSISTANCE WITH LOWER 40S NORTHEAST AND MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. FIRE
CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE RESULT OF THIS DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH
ATTM CRITCAL LEVELS LOOK TO BE JUST OUT OF REACH...BUT CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND DRIER
AIR MOST LIKELY TO REACH FARTHER INTO WESTERN CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLATTENED RIDGE...BUT WITH ENERGY FROM
EASTERN CONUS TROF ROTATING INTO W.ATLANTIC HUDSON BAY LOW BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED AND BEGIN TO THROW COLD AIR BACK FROM HIGH LATS
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH COLDER ENDING TO THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z IN
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING SOME MARGINAL CEILINGS ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL REACH VALENTINE AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE
OF IT REACHING NORTH PLATTE.
WIND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA AIRPORTS.
ONCE AGAIN...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...CROSSWINDS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE FOR THE MEDIUM SIZED AIRCRAFT AT NORTH PLATTE
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS OFF ONLY ABOUT 30 DEGREES FROM THE PRIMARY
RUNWAY CONFIGURATION THERE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO BE PRESENT IN NORTH PLATTE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WIND IN
THE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LOWER WITH INCREASE TO 45-50KT
WITHIN 2000 FEET AGL. AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MIXES...WIND OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 330-360 AT
25-35KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WIND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
ABOUT 20 PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE
HUMIDITY IS MORE LIKELY TO APPROACH 15 PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 25 MPH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...AT
THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO NEED ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
WE WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ004>006-008-009-022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
13/SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 172115
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
314 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. CLIPPER SYSTEM LOW CENTER HAS NOW MOVED INTO ERN
WISCONSIN. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLACKENING. CURRENT WINDS ARE
NEAR OR BELOW WIND ADVY CRITERIA MOST LOCALES. WILL ALLOW CURRENT
WIND ADVY TO END WITH NEW ZONE ISSUANCE.
SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH WEAK WAA IN THE WEST.
A VERY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IN PLACE. HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM MID 40S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST. TO NEED FOR A WIND ADVY APPEARS SLIM. THIS MAINLY DUE TO
STRONGEST H85 WINDS ENDING BY 15Z WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY 3-HR SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-3 MB. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS VERY DRY BELOW
600 MB.
MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK WAA ACROSS FA. A VERY
AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH STILL PERSISTS. FAVORED
THE NAM MODEL WITH WARMER H95 TEMPS AND MET GUIDANCE SFC TEMPS. SFC
WINDS ARE NWRLY AS OPPOSED TO GFS WHICH IS NORTHERLY AND NEUTRAL TO
WEAK CAA. GFS SOLUTION DES NOT MAKE SENSE WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
FCST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM FROM MID 40S NORTHEAST TO 60-65 SOUTHWEST.
SCT-BKN MID CLOUDINESS FCST WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW STILL ACROSS CONUS.
TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS IN STORE. A MILD THERMAL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN NEBR. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
FA. SWRN NEBR WILL EVEN APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN DUE TO THESE WARM OF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES
QUITE ZONAL. LIMITING WARMUP WILL BE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIGHT
WINDS. THUS HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 9 DEGREES COOLER FROM AROUND 45
NORTHEAST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TROUGH
WED NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF EXIST.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH UPPER 30S NCTRL TO MID 40S
SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COLD REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP
GOING HIGHS NEAR 25 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 35 FAR SOUTHWEST. ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER SFC HIGH INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
COLD AIR DAMMING TO NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. GFS MILDER SOLUTION FRIDAY
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP WITH SIMILAR HIGHS SATURDAY. A SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS TROUGHING OCCURS ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...SOMETHING WE HAVENT SEEN OCCUR SINCE DECEMBER. THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW. A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE
AND 285K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
FAVORING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THE
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SPEEDS AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER TO CRITICAL VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 204 AND 210 INTO THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY THAT
WILL RAISE CONCERNS AS SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS LIKELY AS GRASS FUELS WILL BE
FAVORABLE. THOSE SEEKING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
AS A SMALL FIRE COULD BECOME UNCONTAINED QUICKLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE HEATING PEAKS NEAR 3 PM CST DAILY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...ROBERG
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KECK
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