000
FXUS63 KIND 201723
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS WILL START OUT
CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE. SOME INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SCT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONLY CIGS
AROUND 3K FEET WILL OCCUR WITH IT. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST OF INDIANA. MODELS ARE CONSISTANT WITH ATMOSPHERE
DRYING OUT AND BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER FROPA. ONLY SCT CU WILL THEN
OCCUR THRU THE END OF THE TAFS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OUR EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LARGE AND SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN US. RIDGING WAS NOSED
UP INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AS WELL. INDIANA WAS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE RIDGE AND THUS IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. ALOFT AT H5 THE PATTERN WAS EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED WITH
A 587DM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A LARGE TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE WAS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT AROUND
06Z.

THE MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS ON THE 00Z RUNS. WILL USE A BLEND. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ON LOWS IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE
GROUND AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH
OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS IN THESE SPOTS.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY FOR TEMPERATURES. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WITH H8 TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND -14 TO -15C...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL GIVE US
HIGHS RANGING FROM 20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING AT THE SURFACE
DESPITE THE H8 TEMPS WARMING FAIRLY SHARPLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THERE BECOMES
A TIGHT PACKING OF THE THICKNESS LINES OVER INDIANA. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
PROFILE...AND SO WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS WITH HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVERNIGHT
AND H8 TEMPS WILL CLIMB OVER +4C BY MORNING. THE SURFACE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY...SO WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BEFORE PERHAPS
TRENDING UP LATE.

THURSDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WARM ADVECTION INTO INDIANA. AS THE THICKNESS
PACKING SLIDES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING BETTER MIXED BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INVERTED. SO WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH THE WARMING BUT IT STILL
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND INTO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND +5C BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY HARD PRESSED TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER
20S AND POSSIBLY ONLY LOW 30S IN THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THEIR TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER HOWEVER. THIS LEADS
TO A BIT OF DISCREPANCY FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH THE
JOINT GFS/NAM SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT HAVE SHADED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE BELIEF THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS QUICK AS DEPICTED.
IF IT IS INDEED AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...IT WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING
AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS ONE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SH
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 201123
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS

AREA OF IFR CIGS AND FREEZING FOG JUST AND NORTHEAST OF KIND.
SATELLITE SHOWS IT MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO KIND AIRPORT. BUT OBS
UPSTREAM ARE VFR AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP KIND VFR.  ELSEWHERE TAFS
MAINLY VFR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE GFS
SOUNDING SHOW VFR. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIG NEAR AND WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO NAM SCENARIO.
ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM SOMETIMES OVERDOES THIS AND TRAJECTORIES ARE
STILL FROM THE N AND NW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.  AS A COMPROMISE WILL
MENTION SOME 3 THOUSAND BROKEN OVER TAF SITES MUCH OF TONIGHT...BUT
MOST LIKELY TAFS WILL REMAIN VFR.  ANYWAYS ALL TAFS WILL BE VFR BY
WEDNESDAY AS W AND SW FLOW INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OUR EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LARGE AND SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN US. RIDGING WAS NOSED
UP INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AS WELL. INDIANA WAS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE RIDGE AND THUS IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. ALOFT AT H5 THE PATTERN WAS EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED WITH
A 587DM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A LARGE TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE WAS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT AROUND
06Z.

THE MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS ON THE 00Z RUNS. WILL USE A BLEND. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ON LOWS IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE
GROUND AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH
OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS IN THESE SPOTS.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY FOR TEMPERATURES. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WITH H8 TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND -14 TO -15C...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL GIVE US
HIGHS RANGING FROM 20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING AT THE SURFACE
DESPITE THE H8 TEMPS WARMING FAIRLY SHARPLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THERE BECOMES
A TIGHT PACKING OF THE THICKNESS LINES OVER INDIANA. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
PROFILE...AND SO WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS WITH HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVERNIGHT
AND H8 TEMPS WILL CLIMB OVER +4C BY MORNING. THE SURFACE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY...SO WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BEFORE PERHAPS
TRENDING UP LATE.

THURSDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WARM ADVECTION INTO INDIANA. AS THE THICKNESS
PACKING SLIDES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING BETTER MIXED BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INVERTED. SO WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH THE WARMING BUT IT STILL
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND INTO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND +5C BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY HARD PRESSED TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER
20S AND POSSIBLY ONLY LOW 30S IN THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THEIR TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER HOWEVER. THIS LEADS
TO A BIT OF DISCREPANCY FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH THE
JOINT GFS/NAM SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT HAVE SHADED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE BELIEF THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS QUICK AS DEPICTED.
IF IT IS INDEED AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...IT WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING
AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS ONE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 200822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OUR EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LARGE AND SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN US. RIDGING WAS NOSED
UP INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AS WELL. INDIANA WAS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE RIDGE AND THUS IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. ALOFT AT H5 THE PATTERN WAS EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED WITH
A 587DM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A LARGE TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE WAS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT AROUND
06Z.

THE MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS ON THE 00Z RUNS. WILL USE A BLEND. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ON LOWS IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE
GROUND AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH
OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS IN THESE SPOTS.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY FOR TEMPERATURES. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WITH H8 TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND -14 TO -15C...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL GIVE US
HIGHS RANGING FROM 20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT COOLING AT THE SURFACE
DESPITE THE H8 TEMPS WARMING FAIRLY SHARPLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THERE BECOMES
A TIGHT PACKING OF THE THICKNESS LINES OVER INDIANA. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
PROFILE...AND SO WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS WITH HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVERNIGHT
AND H8 TEMPS WILL CLIMB OVER +4C BY MORNING. THE SURFACE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY...SO WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BEFORE PERHAPS
TRENDING UP LATE.

THURSDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WARM ADVECTION INTO INDIANA. AS THE THICKNESS
PACKING SLIDES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING BETTER MIXED BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INVERTED. SO WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH THE WARMING BUT IT STILL
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND INTO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND +5C BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY HARD PRESSED TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER
20S AND POSSIBLY ONLY LOW 30S IN THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THEIR TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER HOWEVER. THIS LEADS
TO A BIT OF DISCREPANCY FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH THE
JOINT GFS/NAM SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT HAVE SHADED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE BELIEF THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS QUICK AS DEPICTED.
IF IT IS INDEED AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...IT WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING
AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS ONE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECASTS AS VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

S/W NEAR MO AND IA WAS DIVING SSE TOWARD WRN KY AND WRN TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR CIGS AND SN OVR CENTRAL IL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHUD STAY TO THE S AND W OF THE TAF SITES WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WL BE LOCATED.

LE SNOW BAND STRETCHING FM VPZ TOWARD MIE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
S...BUT THIS FEATURE SHUD ALSO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DRIFT INTO THE LAF AREA...BUT WL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY FOR NOW.

UPSTREAM FROM THE TAF SITES...ONLY SCT-BKN SC IS FOUND ALONG WITH
SOME AC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GOOD LOWER LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT
SO WL KEEP SOME VFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

CU RULE REMAINS NEGATIVE ON TUES MORN. CCLS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING
WL YIELD MORNING BKN MVFR CIGS...BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THESE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND BECOME SCT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JH/JP
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 200522
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECASTS AS VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

S/W NEAR MO AND IA WAS DIVING SSE TOWARD WRN KY AND WRN TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR CIGS AND SN OVR CENTRAL IL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHUD STAY TO THE S AND W OF THE TAF SITES WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WL BE LOCATED.

LE SNOW BAND STRETCHING FM VPZ TOWARD MIE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
S...BUT THIS FEATURE SHUD ALSO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DRIFT INTO THE LAF AREA...BUT WL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY FOR NOW.

UPSTREAM FROM THE TAF SITES...ONLY SCT-BKN SC IS FOUND ALONG WITH
SOME AC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GOOD LOWER LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT
SO WL KEEP SOME VFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

CU RULE REMAINS NEGATIVE ON TUES MORN. CCLS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING
WL YIELD MORNING BKN MVFR CIGS...BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THESE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND BECOME SCT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPR TROF ACRS THE AREA XPCTD TO PUSH OFF THE E
CST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN THE FLOW GRADU BECOMING
MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES.
FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE PD AND TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...LAST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING THRU LONG WV
TROF CURRENTLY DROPPING S ACRS THE WRN UPPR GRTLKS. THIS DISTURBANCE
XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
MORE STRUNG OUT AND GENERALLY WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT/S SYS...WITH
BEST LIFT PASSING THRU IL. FETCH OFF OF LK MI SUGGESTS CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHWRS TO DRFT INTO THE AREA FM TIME
TO TIME AS WELL. THEREFORE...WL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FCST TONIGHT.

IN THE LTR PDS...TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNRISE TUES...HOWEVER LO LVL WNDS STILL SUGGEST SOME
FLURRIES OFF OF LK MI PSBL DURG THE DAY TUES. OTRW...DRY AND QUIET
WX XPCTD FOR AWHILE AS UPPR HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF TROF.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE NGM MOS LOWS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS ARE PROBABLY A FEW DEGS ON THE WARM SIDE. MOS HIGHS FOR TUES
ALSO LOOK A LTL COOL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP/JH
PUBLIC...JAS

000
FXUS63 KIND 192309
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR MO AND IA WAS DIVING SSE TOWARD WRN KY AND
WRN TN EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHUD STAY TO THE S AND W OF THE TAF SITES WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
WL BE LOCATED.

UPSTREAM FROM THE TAF SITES...ONLY SCT-BKN SC IS FOUND ALONG WITH
SOME AC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GOOD LOWER LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT
SO WL KEEP SOME VFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

CU RULE REMAINS NEGATIVE ON TUES MORN. CCLS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING
WL YIELD MORNING BKN MVFR CIGS...BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THESE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND BECOME SCT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPR TROF ACRS THE AREA XPCTD TO PUSH OFF THE E
CST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN THE FLOW GRADU BECOMING
MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES.
FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE PD AND TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...LAST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING THRU LONG WV
TROF CURRENTLY DROPPING S ACRS THE WRN UPPR GRTLKS. THIS DISTURBANCE
XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
MORE STRUNG OUT AND GENERALLY WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT/S SYS...WITH
BEST LIFT PASSING THRU IL. FETCH OFF OF LK MI SUGGESTS CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHWRS TO DRFT INTO THE AREA FM TIME
TO TIME AS WELL. THEREFORE...WL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FCST TONIGHT.

IN THE LTR PDS...TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNRISE TUES...HOWEVER LO LVL WNDS STILL SUGGEST SOME
FLURRIES OFF OF LK MI PSBL DURG THE DAY TUES. OTRW...DRY AND QUIET
WX XPCTD FOR AWHILE AS UPPR HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF TROF.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE NGM MOS LOWS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS ARE PROBABLY A FEW DEGS ON THE WARM SIDE. MOS HIGHS FOR TUES
ALSO LOOK A LTL COOL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...JAS

000
FXUS63 KIND 191906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
210 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPR TROF ACRS THE AREA XPCTD TO PUSH OFF THE E
CST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN THE FLOW GRADU BECOMING
MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES.
FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE PD AND TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...LAST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING THRU LONG WV
TROF CURRENTLY DROPPING S ACRS THE WRN UPPR GRTLKS. THIS DISTURBANCE
XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
MORE STRUNG OUT AND GENERALLY WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT/S SYS...WITH
BEST LIFT PASSING THRU IL. FETCH OFF OF LK MI SUGGESTS CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHWRS TO DRFT INTO THE AREA FM TIME
TO TIME AS WELL. THEREFORE...WL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FCST TONIGHT.

IN THE LTR PDS...TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNRISE TUES...HOWEVER LO LVL WNDS STILL SUGGEST SOME
FLURRIES OFF OF LK MI PSBL DURG THE DAY TUES. OTRW...DRY AND QUIET
WX XPCTD FOR AWHILE AS UPPR HGTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF TROF.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE NGM MOS LOWS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS ARE PROBABLY A FEW DEGS ON THE WARM SIDE. MOS HIGHS FOR TUES
ALSO LOOK A LTL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

TAFS WILL HAVE A FLOW FROM THE NW FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS FLOW
WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE LAF AREA. SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOW SNOW DECREASING. TAFS WILL START OUT VFR. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH WITH THE NW FLOW TO CAUSE CU TO DEVELOP BUT
HEIGHT WILL KEEP THEM IN VFR LEVELS. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH IT. THESE SHOULD NOT DECREASE VSBYS MUCH.
THE MAIN EFFECT THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS INTO THE TAFS. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL 04Z-06Z. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL END THE SNOW THEN
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...SH
PUBLIC...JAS

000
FXUS63 KIND 191729
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1225 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

TAFS WILL HAVE A FLOW FROM THE NW FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS FLOW
WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE LAF AREA. SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOW SNOW DECREASING. TAFS WILL START OUT VFR. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH WITH THE NW FLOW TO CAUSE CU TO DEVELOP BUT
HEIGHT WILL KEEP THEM IN VFR LEVELS. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH IT. THESE SHOULD NOT DECREASE VSBYS MUCH.
THE MAIN EFFECT THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS INTO THE TAFS. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL 04Z-06Z. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL END THE SNOW THEN
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW TODAY AND TUESDAY.  SNOW WAS STILL
OCCURRING IN OUR FAR SOUTH AT 08Z...BUT HAD ENDED MOST OTHER AREAS.
SATELLITE SHOWED CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SPREADING INTO
THE LAFAYETTE AREA. THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INTO
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTH BY MID MORNING AND CU RULE SHOWS VALUES -5 TO
-6 AT 18Z SO ANY CLEARING WILL PROBABLY BE BRIEF.

WILL START OUT MOST PLACES WITH NO WEATHER OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE
AS SNOW IN OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THEN.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO OUR NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OTHER AREAS BY
AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

UPPER AIR CHARTS AND WV LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/W INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS TIME THEY KEEP ALL QPF JUST WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BUT SINCE THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH AND MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THESE S/W WILL
MENTION LOW POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY WILL MENTION MORNING FLURRIES ALL AREAS WITH LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH.  WILL END PRECIP AS UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND 850 FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED AREAS NORTHWEST OF INDY WILL
PROBABLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST TEMPORARILY BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SH
PUBLIC...JH

000
FXUS63 KIND 191122
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH SKIES IN THE VFR RANGE AS THE PASSAGE
OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT LOW CLOUDS AND LEFT
DRIER AIR IN THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN
BY LATE THIS MORNING THE CU RULE INDICATES THAT BKN TO OVC SKIES
ARE LIKELY BY AROUND THE 18Z TIME FRAME. CU THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND 2KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUT ALL TAF SITES IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 22Z A LITTLE
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS
SHOULD HELP TO LIFT CIGS BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. AFTER 02-04Z
TONIGHT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA. WILL INCLUDE FLURRIES AT HUF AND
LAF...BUT OTHERWISE JUST MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW TODAY AND TUESDAY.  SNOW WAS STILL
OCCURRING IN OUR FAR SOUTH AT 08Z...BUT HAD ENDED MOST OTHER AREAS.
SATELLITE SHOWED CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SPREADING INTO
THE LAFAYETTE AREA. THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INTO
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTH BY MID MORNING AND CU RULE SHOWS VALUES -5 TO
-6 AT 18Z SO ANY CLEARING WILL PROBABLY BE BRIEF.

WILL START OUT MOST PLACES WITH NO WEATHER OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE
AS SNOW IN OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THEN.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO OUR NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OTHER AREAS BY
AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

UPPER AIR CHARTS AND WV LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/W INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS TIME THEY KEEP ALL QPF JUST WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BUT SINCE THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH AND MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THESE S/W WILL
MENTION LOW POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY WILL MENTION MORNING FLURRIES ALL AREAS WITH LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH.  WILL END PRECIP AS UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND 850 FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED AREAS NORTHWEST OF INDY WILL
PROBABLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST TEMPORARILY BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JOHNSON
PUBLIC...JH

000
FXUS63 KIND 190835
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW TODAY AND TUESDAY.  SNOW WAS STILL
OCCURRING IN OUR FAR SOUTH AT 08Z...BUT HAD ENDED MOST OTHER AREAS.
SATELLITE SHOWED CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SPREADING INTO
THE LAFAYETTE AREA. THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INTO
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTH BY MID MORNING AND CU RULE SHOWS VALUES -5 TO
-6 AT 18Z SO ANY CLEARING WILL PROBABLY BE BRIEF.

WILL START OUT MOST PLACES WITH NO WEATHER OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE
AS SNOW IN OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THEN.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO OUR NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OTHER AREAS BY
AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

UPPER AIR CHARTS AND WV LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/W INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS TIME THEY KEEP ALL QPF JUST WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BUT SINCE THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH AND MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THESE S/W WILL
MENTION LOW POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY WILL MENTION MORNING FLURRIES ALL AREAS WITH LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH.  WILL END PRECIP AS UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND 850 FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED AREAS NORTHWEST OF INDY WILL
PROBABLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST TEMPORARILY BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

&&



.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

SURFACE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED TONIGHTS LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS DROPPING
TO THE SOUTH AND TAKING THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. ONLY HUF AND BMG
WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH SNOW AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
BY 08-09Z THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND HELP TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SHOW SCT CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WILL TRY TO REFLECT
THIS IN THE TAF BY ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP AND CREATE A
BKN MVFR DECK AFTER 15Z MON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 190520
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1221 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

SURFACE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED TONIGHTS LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS DROPPING
TO THE SOUTH AND TAKING THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. ONLY HUF AND BMG
WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH SNOW AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
BY 08-09Z THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND HELP TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SHOW SCT CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WILL TRY TO REFLECT
THIS IN THE TAF BY ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP AND CREATE A
BKN MVFR DECK AFTER 15Z MON.

&&

.UPDATE...

SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA /FA/ FROM IL.
FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDING IN CREATING A COUPLE OF BANDS ACROSS THE
FA...BUT AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL PROGS OF
FORCING INDICATE THAT SRN FA SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY OR ABOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA. PER UPSTREAM REPORTS AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE AN
AVERAGE WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS. WILL INDICATE AS SUCH IN
GRIDS/ZFP. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT GIVEN SNOWFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPR TROF ACRS THE AREA XPCTD TO GRADU SHFT EWD
TOWARDS THE E CST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW
MORE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN DETAILS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SSEWD ACRS THE WRN
GRT LKS RGN. REGIONAL RADARS/SFC OBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW
SHWR ACTVTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTING
MEASURABLE PCPN. MODELS PROG THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE LOCAL AREA
BTWN ABOUT 19/00Z-19/08Z...SO XPCTG MOST OF THE SNOW SHWR ACTVTY
DURG THIS TIME. APPEARS MAIN LIFT WL CROSS THE SWRN AREAS...SO POPS
WL BE HIGHER THERE. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS 1/2-3/4 INCH
OR SO WITH THIS SYS WHERE THE HEAVIER SHWR BANDS SET UP.

IN THE LTR PDS...TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNRISE MON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY DROP INTO THE AREA MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LIFT WL BE MORE SPREAD OUT AND
LESS CONCENTRATED THAN TONIGHT/S SYS. WL THEREFORE ONLY GO WITH
FLURRIES ON MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO LO LVL WNDS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SOME FLURRY ACTVTY OFF OF LK MI BY MON AFT/NIGHT OVR THE NERN ZONES.
AS DEEP TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE E BY TUES...WL GO DRY AT THAT
TIME.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST NGM MOS HIGHS MON AND TUES ARE PROBABLY A
FEW DEGS ON THE COOL SIDE. MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CS
PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 190304
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1004 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.UPDATE...

SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA /FA/ FROM IL.
FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDING IN CREATING A COUPLE OF BANDS ACROSS THE
FA...BUT AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL PROGS OF
FORCING INDICATE THAT SRN FA SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY OR ABOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA. PER UPSTREAM REPORTS AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE AN
AVERAGE WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS. WILL INDICATE AS SUCH IN
GRIDS/ZFP. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT GIVEN SNOWFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

ANOTHER WEAK TROF WAS FOUND ACRS NRN IL STRETCHING SW TO SRN IA AND
NRN MO. SHSN AND MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IL...AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND ADVECTING THIS WAY. HAVE ADVECTED THE MVFR CIGS
ACRS THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SN DURG THE FIRST 6HRS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND THE TROF PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA. DECENT LOWER LVL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING APPEAR ALONG WITH ONGOING RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST SHSN WILL OCCUR.

ATTM CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SN AFT 04Z-05Z...BUT WL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SN AND INCLUDE AN A LATER UPDATE IF
NEEDED...BUT BEST FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN
THE FIRST 4-6HRS OF SO.

BROAD CYCLONIC AND NW FLOW CONTINUES ON MON AND TIME SECTIONS
SUGGEST GOOD LWR LVL MOISTURE HENCE WL KEEP SOME MVFR CIGS SLOWLY
RISING TO VFR CIGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPR TROF ACRS THE AREA XPCTD TO GRADU SHFT EWD
TOWARDS THE E CST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW
MORE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN DETAILS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SSEWD ACRS THE WRN
GRT LKS RGN. REGIONAL RADARS/SFC OBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW
SHWR ACTVTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTING
MEASURABLE PCPN. MODELS PROG THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE LOCAL AREA
BTWN ABOUT 19/00Z-19/08Z...SO XPCTG MOST OF THE SNOW SHWR ACTVTY
DURG THIS TIME. APPEARS MAIN LIFT WL CROSS THE SWRN AREAS...SO POPS
WL BE HIGHER THERE. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS 1/2-3/4 INCH
OR SO WITH THIS SYS WHERE THE HEAVIER SHWR BANDS SET UP.

IN THE LTR PDS...TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNRISE MON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY DROP INTO THE AREA MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LIFT WL BE MORE SPREAD OUT AND
LESS CONCENTRATED THAN TONIGHT/S SYS. WL THEREFORE ONLY GO WITH
FLURRIES ON MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO LO LVL WNDS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SOME FLURRY ACTVTY OFF OF LK MI BY MON AFT/NIGHT OVR THE NERN ZONES.
AS DEEP TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE E BY TUES...WL GO DRY AT THAT
TIME.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST NGM MOS HIGHS MON AND TUES ARE PROBABLY A
FEW DEGS ON THE COOL SIDE. MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CS
PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KIND 182317
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

ANOTHER WEAK TROF WAS FOUND ACRS NRN IL STRETCHING SW TO SRN IA AND
NRN MO. SHSN AND MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IL...AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND ADVECTING THIS WAY. HAVE ADVECTED THE MVFR CIGS
ACRS THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SN DURG THE FIRST 6HRS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND THE TROF PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA. DECENT LOWER LVL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING APPEAR ALONG WITH ONGOING RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST SHSN WILL OCCUR.

ATTM CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SN AFT 04Z-05Z...BUT WL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SN AND INCLUDE AN A LATER UPDATE IF
NEEDED...BUT BEST FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN
THE FIRST 4-6HRS OF SO.

BROAD CYCLONIC AND NW FLOW CONTINUES ON MON AND TIME SECTIONS
SUGGEST GOOD LWR LVL MOISTURE HENCE WL KEEP SOME MVFR CIGS SLOWLY
RISING TO VFR CIGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPR TROF ACRS THE AREA XPCTD TO GRADU SHFT EWD
TOWARDS THE E CST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW
MORE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN DETAILS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SSEWD ACRS THE WRN
GRT LKS RGN. REGIONAL RADARS/SFC OBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW
SHWR ACTVTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTING
MEASURABLE PCPN. MODELS PROG THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE LOCAL AREA
BTWN ABOUT 19/00Z-19/08Z...SO XPCTG MOST OF THE SNOW SHWR ACTVTY
DURG THIS TIME. APPEARS MAIN LIFT WL CROSS THE SWRN AREAS...SO POPS
WL BE HIGHER THERE. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS 1/2-3/4 INCH
OR SO WITH THIS SYS WHERE THE HEAVIER SHWR BANDS SET UP.

IN THE LTR PDS...TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNRISE MON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY DROP INTO THE AREA MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LIFT WL BE MORE SPREAD OUT AND
LESS CONCENTRATED THAN TONIGHT/S SYS. WL THEREFORE ONLY GO WITH
FLURRIES ON MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO LO LVL WNDS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SOME FLURRY ACTVTY OFF OF LK MI BY MON AFT/NIGHT OVR THE NERN ZONES.
AS DEEP TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE E BY TUES...WL GO DRY AT THAT
TIME.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST NGM MOS HIGHS MON AND TUES ARE PROBABLY A
FEW DEGS ON THE COOL SIDE. MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KIND 181908
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPR TROF ACRS THE AREA XPCTD TO GRADU SHFT EWD
TOWARDS THE E CST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW
MORE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN DETAILS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SSEWD ACRS THE WRN
GRT LKS RGN. REGIONAL RADARS/SFC OBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW
SHWR ACTVTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTING
MEASURABLE PCPN. MODELS PROG THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE LOCAL AREA
BTWN ABOUT 19/00Z-19/08Z...SO XPCTG MOST OF THE SNOW SHWR ACTVTY
DURG THIS TIME. APPEARS MAIN LIFT WL CROSS THE SWRN AREAS...SO POPS
WL BE HIGHER THERE. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS 1/2-3/4 INCH
OR SO WITH THIS SYS WHERE THE HEAVIER SHWR BANDS SET UP.

IN THE LTR PDS...TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNRISE MON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY DROP INTO THE AREA MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LIFT WL BE MORE SPREAD OUT AND
LESS CONCENTRATED THAN TONIGHT/S SYS. WL THEREFORE ONLY GO WITH
FLURRIES ON MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO LO LVL WNDS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SOME FLURRY ACTVTY OFF OF LK MI BY MON AFT/NIGHT OVR THE NERN ZONES.
AS DEEP TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE E BY TUES...WL GO DRY AT THAT
TIME.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST NGM MOS HIGHS MON AND TUES ARE PROBABLY A
FEW DEGS ON THE COOL SIDE. MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

MAIN PROBLEM FOR AVIATION WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE. THIS WILL KEEP
INDIANA UNDER A FLOW FROM THE NW. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WAS ROTATING
AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL GIVE VARIABLE CLOUDS IN ALL
BUT THE BMG TAFS. CLOUDS WILL OCNLY GO SCT THIS AFTN. TONIGHT A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING MVFR
CIGNS INTO ALL TAFS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z THE LOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO END
THE SNOW BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...HAINES

000
FXUS63 KIND 181733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

MAIN PROBLEM FOR AVIATION WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE. THIS WILL KEEP
INDIANA UNDER A FLOW FROM THE NW. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WAS ROTATING
AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL GIVE VARIABLE CLOUDS IN ALL
BUT THE BMG TAFS. CLOUDS WILL OCNLY GO SCT THIS AFTN. TONIGHT A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING MVFR
CIGNS INTO ALL TAFS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z THE LOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO END
THE SNOW BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS DEAL WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE OUR WAY
NEXT FEW DAYS...ITS EFFECTS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND FINE TURNING
TEMPERATURES.

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR
REGION. RADAR AND WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
UPSTREAM. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
WILL MENTION MAINLY FLURRIES AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.

MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF UPPER S/W INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE BEING
TONIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE BEING MONDAY EVENING.  THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH AFFECT THESE WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.  NAM GIVES ABOUT A HALF
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND WEST WITH EACH WHILE GFS IS
MUCH DRIER AND KEEPS MEASURABLE PRECIP LIGHTER AND MOSTLY SW OF MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE RAPID SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND NOT
MUCH PRECIP OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL GO CLOSER TO DRIER GFS.

SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES NNW
LATER TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -16 DEGREES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL FALL THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS ARE SLOWER IN MOVING ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR SOUTH TODAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S
THERE.  WILL USE A BLEND OF MET/MAV TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BOTH DAYS. WILL NOT MAKER ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO REST
OF FORECAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...HAINES

000
FXUS63 KIND 181107
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS AND AN
END OF THE SNOW SHOWERS VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING IN
ILLINOIS...THE WEATHER HEADED THIS WAY SHOWS A QUICK IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS
LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MVFR
THRESHOLD...AS BKN CLOUDS AT AROUND 3500 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
TOWARDS 00Z AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...LOWER CIGS
WILL RETURN AND PUSH CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOUT 10 TO 12KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS DEAL WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE OUR WAY
NEXT FEW DAYS...ITS EFFECTS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND FINE TURNING
TEMPERATURES.

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR
REGION. RADAR AND WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
UPSTREAM. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
WILL MENTION MAINLY FLURRIES AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.

MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF UPPER S/W INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE BEING
TONIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE BEING MONDAY EVENING.  THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH AFFECT THESE WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.  NAM GIVES ABOUT A HALF
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND WEST WITH EACH WHILE GFS IS
MUCH DRIER AND KEEPS MEASURABLE PRECIP LIGHTER AND MOSTLY SW OF MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE RAPID SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND NOT
MUCH PRECIP OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL GO CLOSER TO DRIER GFS.

SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES NNW
LATER TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -16 DEGREES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL FALL THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS ARE SLOWER IN MOVING ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR SOUTH TODAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S
THERE.  WILL USE A BLEND OF MET/MAV TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BOTH DAYS. WILL NOT MAKER ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO REST
OF FORECAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 180835
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS DEAL WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE OUR WAY
NEXT FEW DAYS...ITS EFFECTS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND FINE TURNING
TEMPERATURES.

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR
REGION. RADAR AND WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
UPSTREAM. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
WILL MENTION MAINLY FLURRIES AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.

MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF UPPER S/W INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE BEING
TONIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE BEING MONDAY EVENING.  THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH AFFECT THESE WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.  NAM GIVES ABOUT A HALF
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND WEST WITH EACH WHILE GFS IS
MUCH DRIER AND KEEPS MEASURABLE PRECIP LIGHTER AND MOSTLY SW OF MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE RAPID SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND NOT
MUCH PRECIP OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL GO CLOSER TO DRIER GFS.

SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES NNW
LATER TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -16 DEGREES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL FALL THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS ARE SLOWER IN MOVING ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR SOUTH TODAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S
THERE.  WILL USE A BLEND OF MET/MAV TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BOTH DAYS. WILL NOT MAKER ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO REST
OF FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS

ONGOING RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT -FZRA ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES ALONG
WITH PERIODIC MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS. SUF OBS SHOW PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS
IN TEH WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME OF THE PCPN CHANING OVER TO
-SN.

WL FOCUS ON THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER
FOR SCT FZRA CHANGING OVER TO SN. PCPN EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS
MORNING AS WEAK LILFT ENDS IN THE WAKE OF TEH FRONT.

TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW MVFR CIGS AS TRAPPED
LOWER LVL MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SC IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP/LJ
PUBLIC...JH

000
FXUS63 KIND 180531
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS

ONGOING RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT -FZRA ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES ALONG
WITH PERIODIC MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS. SUF OBS SHOW PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS
IN TEH WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME OF THE PCPN CHANING OVER TO
-SN.

WL FOCUS ON THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER
FOR SCT FZRA CHANGING OVER TO SN. PCPN EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS
MORNING AS WEAK LILFT ENDS IN THE WAKE OF TEH FRONT.

TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW MVFR CIGS AS TRAPPED
LOWER LVL MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SC IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA.

&&

.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBS ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND IN ARE SHOWING FREZZING
DRIZZLE...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS/ZFP TO REFLECT THIS WHERE NECESSARY. /LIFT IS OCCURRING IN A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER...WHERE NO ICE CRYSTALS ARE BEING
INTRODUCED...CREATING THE FZDZ/. WILL ADD TO AREAS EVEN WHERE AIR
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SINCE GROUND IS LIKELY
STILL QUITE COLD FROM RECENT SUBZERO TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS DO MOVE THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIMITED FRONTOGENESIS WITH SYSTEM. MODELS ARE UNIFORM WITH ONLY
AROUND .25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. COMPOSITE RADARS AND SFC OBS DO
HAVE SOME SNOW WITH FRONT. WILL GO WITH A CHC BUT KEEP ACCUM TO .1
OR LESS. THERE IS CAA AT 850 MB AROUND 7 DEGREES. WILL GO TOWARD THE
LOWER NGM GUID. OVER THE SNOW AREA IN THE N WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP. THE CAA WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WILL ONLY INCREASE TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LOWS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE NW
FLOW TO CONTINUE THE CHC OF SNOWSHOWERS. NEUTRAL ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS MUCH FROM TONIGHT. FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RVR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE N ON
MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE NGT BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRING A CHC OF
FLURRIES. AFTER THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THEN A DRY PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP/LJ
PUBLIC...SH
UPDATE...CS

000
FXUS63 KIND 180115
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
815 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBS ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND IN ARE SHOWING FREZZING
DRIZZLE...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS/ZFP TO REFLECT THIS WHERE NECESSARY. /LIFT IS OCCURRING IN A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER...WHERE NO ICE CRYSTALS ARE BEING
INTRODUCED...CREATING THE FZDZ/. WILL ADD TO AREAS EVEN WHERE AIR
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SINCE GROUND IS LIKELY
STILL QUITE COLD FROM RECENT SUBZERO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS

LOW PRES OVR MI WILL PUSH A CD FRONT ACRS THE TAF SITES DURG THE
FIRST 6 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2K FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LVLS AFT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2K FT...THUS WL ADVECT THESE CIGS ACRS THE TAF SITES
IN THE FIRST 2-4 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE ACRS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WEAK CAA CONTINUES ALONG WITH BROAD CYCLONIC AND NW FLOW.

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHSN IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE WL BE WAY TO ISOLATED AND BRIEF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS DO MOVE THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIMITED FRONTOGENESIS WITH SYSTEM. MODELS ARE UNIFORM WITH ONLY
AROUND .25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. COMPOSITE RADARS AND SFC OBS DO
HAVE SOME SNOW WITH FRONT. WILL GO WITH A CHC BUT KEEP ACCUM TO .1
OR LESS. THERE IS CAA AT 850 MB AROUND 7 DEGREES. WILL GO TOWARD THE
LOWER NGM GUID. OVER THE SNOW AREA IN THE N WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP. THE CAA WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WILL ONLY INCREASE TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LOWS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE NW
FLOW TO CONTINUE THE CHC OF SNOWSHOWERS. NEUTRAL ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS MUCH FROM TONIGHT. FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RVR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE N ON
MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE NGT BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRING A CHC OF
FLURRIES. AFTER THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THEN A DRY PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...SH
UPDATE...CS

000
FXUS63 KIND 172309
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS

LOW PRES OVR MI WILL PUSH A CD FRONT ACRS THE TAF SITES DURG THE
FIRST 6 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2K FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LVLS AFT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2K FT...THUS WL ADVECT THESE CIGS ACRS THE TAF SITES
IN THE FIRST 2-4 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE ACRS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WEAK CAA CONTINUES ALONG WITH BROAD CYCLONIC AND NW FLOW.

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHSN IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE WL BE WAY TO ISOLATED AND BRIEF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS DO MOVE THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIMITED FRONTOGENESIS WITH SYSTEM. MODELS ARE UNIFORM WITH ONLY
AROUND .25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. COMPOSITE RADARS AND SFC OBS DO
HAVE SOME SNOW WITH FRONT. WILL GO WITH A CHC BUT KEEP ACCUM TO .1
OR LESS. THERE IS CAA AT 850 MB AROUND 7 DEGREES. WILL GO TOWARD THE
LOWER NGM GUID. OVER THE SNOW AREA IN THE N WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP. THE CAA WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WILL ONLY INCREASE TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LOWS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE NW
FLOW TO CONTINUE THE CHC OF SNOWSHOWERS. NEUTRAL ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS MUCH FROM TONIGHT. FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RVR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE N ON
MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE NGT BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRING A CHC OF
FLURRIES. AFTER THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THEN A DRY PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...SH

000
FXUS63 KIND 172033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS DO MOVE THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIMITED FRONTOGENESIS WITH SYSTEM. MODELS ARE UNIFORM WITH ONLY
AROUND .25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. COMPOSIT RADARS AND SFC OBS DO
HAVE SOME SNOW WITH FRONT. WILL GO WITH A CHC BUT KEEP ACCUM TO .1
OR LESS. THERE IS CAA AT 850 MB AROUND 7 DEGREES. WILL GO TOWARD THE
LOWER NGM GUID. OVER THE SNOW AREA IN THE N WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP. THE CAA WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WILL ONLY INCREASE TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LOWS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE NW
FLOW TO CONTINUE THE CHC OF SNOWSHOWERS. NEUTRAL ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS MUCH FROM TONIGHT. FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RVR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE N ON
MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE NGT BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRING A CHC OF
FLURRIES. AFTER THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THEN A DRY PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE. THIS MORNING/S UA
INDICATING ABOUT 35-40KTS ARND 020. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME TEMPO
CLRG OF THE CLDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME SFC WND
GUSTS 30-32KTS FM 190-210 HEADINGS THIS AFT.

OTRW...VORT LOBE/SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SEWD THRU ERN
IA/NWRN IL WITH MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
XTRAPOLATION SUGGETS MVFR CIGS ARND 020 SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS BWTN 172100Z-172300Z WITH SCT SNOW SHWR ACTVTY XPCTD TIL
PASSAGE OF VORT LOBE WHICH OCCURS BYD 180600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JAS
PUBLIC...SH