000
FXUS61 KILN 201657
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1157 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL WASH OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE ON INTO AT LEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE HANG
ON TO A LOW POP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH WITH OTHERWISE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WE GOT OFF TO A COLD START THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS. WITH SOME SUN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THINK WE WILL
STILL BE ABLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS OF UPPER TEENS NORTH TO
LOWER/MID 20 IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODERATE THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WARM
ADVECTION DOESN`T START TO KICK IN UNTIL THE HIGH PASSES EARLY
WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN NOT WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BRING IN SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AS THE SOURCE REGION WILL NOT BE THE GULF. BEST
CONVERGENT AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE N IN THE GTLKS
REGION...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTH THAN IS NOTED OVER
MUCH OF OHVLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH
THE BIGGEST CHANGE NOTED THURS NIGHT WHERE A 2-4 DEG RISE ACROSS
THE BOARD SEEMED IN ORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING E THROUGH THE GTLKS
REGION...AND A SECONDARY LOW TRAVELLING S THROUGH TX. HIGH PRESSURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FRONT IS BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR...AND
SHOULD CHANGE ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
SNOW BEHIND IT. THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THIS LOW ON THURS AND FRI SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWERS AS LIQUID. DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE AS ACTIVE SO THE PREVIOUS LOW
CHANCE RISING TO CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST WERE ONLY
MINORLY TWEAKED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY WX
AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA. AT
THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE JUST ABOUT SCATTERED OUT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPO BKN MVFR DECK FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS
TO CLEAR OUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BIG QUESTION ARISES FOR LATER
TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL GET SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE..BRING IN
MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME MVFR BR. STRATUS SHOULD
THEN MIX OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 201606
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1106 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL WASH OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE ON INTO AT LEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE HANG
ON TO A LOW POP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH WITH OTHERWISE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WE GOT OFF TO A COLD START THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS. WITH SOME SUN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THINK WE WILL
STILL BE ABLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS OF UPPER TEENS NORTH TO
LOWER/MID 20 IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODERATE THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WARM
ADVECTION DOESN`T START TO KICK IN UNTIL THE HIGH PASSES EARLY
WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN NOT WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BRING IN SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AS THE SOURCE REGION WILL NOT BE THE GULF. BEST
CONVERGENT AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE N IN THE GTLKS
REGION...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTH THAN IS NOTED OVER
MUCH OF OHVLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH
THE BIGGEST CHANGE NOTED THURS NIGHT WHERE A 2-4 DEG RISE ACROSS
THE BOARD SEEMED IN ORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING E THROUGH THE GTLKS
REGION...AND A SECONDARY LOW TRAVELLING S THROUGH TX. HIGH PRESSURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FRONT IS BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR...AND
SHOULD CHANGE ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
SNOW BEHIND IT. THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THIS LOW ON THURS AND FRI SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWERS AS LIQUID. DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE AS ACTIVE SO THE PREVIOUS LOW
CHANCE RISING TO CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST WERE ONLY
MINORLY TWEAKED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY WX
AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA. AT
THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR ST AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN INDIANA/WRN
OH. EXPECT THIS TO LAST AN HOUR OR SO...BEFORE MIXING OCCURS AFT
SUNRISE AND CIGS RISE OR THE MOSITURE IN THE AIR CREATES A MVFR SC
DECK. THEREFORE EXPECT CLR OR SCT SKIES AT ERN TAFS LOCATIONS TO
BECOME MVFR CIG BY 14Z.
NLY FLOW OFF REMAINS TODAY...FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE W BY 00Z. CLDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT OUT BY THEN. WAA ISNETROPIC LIFT SHOULD
PRODUCE BKN CI LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 201120
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL WASH OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS GOING TO HAMPER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY BUT THE COLD POOL SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO DEVELOP
TODAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE
THE CLOUD DEPTH WOULD SUPPORT IT. GRIDDED FORECAST GAVE MOSTLY
SUNNY WORDING FOR TODAY BUT PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SEEMED A
LOT MORE IN TUNE WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE LIMITED EVEN WITH A GOOD BIT OF
SUNSHINE AS NORTHERY WINDS WILL PUMP IN COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
HAVE LIMITED HIGHS TODAY TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTH...LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
SCATTERED CU TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODERATE THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WARM
ADVECTION DOESN`T START TO KICK IN UNTIL THE HIGH PASSES EARLY
WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN NOT WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BRING IN SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AS THE SOURCE REGION WILL NOT BE THE GULF. BEST
CONVERGENT AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE N IN THE GTLKS
REGION...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTH THAN IS NOTED OVER
MUCH OF OHVLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH
THE BIGGEST CHANGE NOTED THURS NIGHT WHERE A 2-4 DEG RISE ACROSS
THE BOARD SEEMED IN ORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING E THROUGH THE GTLKS
REGION...AND A SECONDARY LOW TRAVELLING S THROUGH TX. HIGH PRESSURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FRONT IS BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR...AND
SHOULD CHANGE ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
SNOW BEHIND IT. THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THIS LOW ON THURS AND FRI SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWERS AS LIQUID. DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE AS ACTIVE SO THE PREVIOUS LOW
CHANCE RISING TO CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST WERE ONLY
MINORLY TWEAKED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY WX
AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA. AT
THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR ST AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN INDIANA/WRN
OH. EXPECT THIS TO LAST AN HOUR OR SO...BEFORE MIXING OCCURS AFT
SUNRISE AND CIGS RISE OR THE MOSITURE IN THE AIR CREATES A MVFR SC
DECK. THEREFORE EXPECT CLR OR SCT SKIES AT ERN TAFS LOCATIONS TO
BECOME MVFR CIG BY 14Z.
NLY FLOW OFF REMAINS TODAY...FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE W BY 00Z. CLDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT OUT BY THEN. WAA ISNETROPIC LIFT SHOULD
PRODUCE BKN CI LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 200853
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL WASH OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS GOING TO HAMPER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY BUT THE COLD POOL SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO DEVELOP
TODAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE
THE CLOUD DEPTH WOULD SUPPORT IT. GRIDDED FORECAST GAVE MOSTLY
SUNNY WORDING FOR TODAY BUT PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SEEMED A
LOT MORE IN TUNE WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE LIMITED EVEN WITH A GOOD BIT OF
SUNSHINE AS NORTHERY WINDS WILL PUMP IN COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
HAVE LIMITED HIGHS TODAY TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTH...LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
SCATTERED CU TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODERATE THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WARM
ADVECTION DOESN`T START TO KICK IN UNTIL THE HIGH PASSES EARLY
WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN NOT WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BRING IN SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AS THE SOURCE REGION WILL NOT BE THE GULF. BEST
CONVERGENT AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE N IN THE GTLKS
REGION...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTH THAN IS NOTED OVER
MUCH OF OHVLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH
THE BIGGEST CHANGE NOTED THURS NIGHT WHERE A 2-4 DEG RISE ACROSS
THE BOARD SEEMED IN ORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING E THROUGH THE GTLKS
REGION...AND A SECONDARY LOW TRAVELLING S THROUGH TX. HIGH PRESSURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FRONT IS BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR...AND
SHOULD CHANGE ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
SNOW BEHIND IT. THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THIS LOW ON THURS AND FRI SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWERS AS LIQUID. DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE AS ACTIVE SO THE PREVIOUS LOW
CHANCE RISING TO CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST WERE ONLY
MINORLY TWEAKED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY WX
AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA. AT
THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AS THE FA AS NLY FLOW OFF LAKES
KEEPS MOISTURE AND SHSN BANDS WORKING ACRS THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 08Z.
MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE CIGS COULD FALL AS LOW AS
1-2KFT.
MVFR FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACRS THE N. REDUCE VSBYS IN THE FOG
ACRS THE N THRU SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...UNTIL CLDS BECOME SCATTERED BY LATE IN THE AFTN AS FLOW TURN
MORE TO THE W.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 200601
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT BETWEEN TWO
LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CAROLINAS
RESPECTIVELY. A 1035MB HIGH IS DOMINATING THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. LOCALLY...THE OHIO VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...WITH A BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING LIGHT NWRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE MID- LEVELS...A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROF IS DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A CLOSED H5 LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WITH THE TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO IL. WITH A NRLY
FLOW ALOFT...BKN SC CONTINUES TO ADVECT SWD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS RURAL AREAS
NORTH OF I-70. TEMPS ARE WARMER SWD...STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
OVERNIGHT...A NWLRY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NRLY...WITH A
BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT...WITH PTLY-MSTLY CLDY SKIES. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS W-CNTRL OH TO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO...LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -5 TO
-10. ANY ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE CUT OFF WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...WINDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVERAGE TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA BELOW -10. UPDATED GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS...LOWERING TEMPS AND TDS FURTHER BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A DRY
PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN WEST-NORTHWEST ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
IN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN A S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED CLOSE TO ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BEING QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. BEST MSTR AND FORCING TO STAY TO THE NORTH. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION FRI/FRI EVE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY
WX AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA.
AT THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AS THE FA AS NLY FLOW OFF LAKES
KEEPS MOISTURE AND SHSN BANDS WORKING ACRS THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 08Z.
MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE CIGS COULD FALL AS LOW AS
1-2KFT.
MVFR FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACRS THE N. REDUCE VSBYS IN THE FOG
ACRS THE N THRU SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...UNTIL CLDS BECOME SCATTERED BY LATE IN THE AFTN AS FLOW TURN
MORE TO THE W.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 200228
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
928 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT BETWEEN TWO
LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CAROLINAS
RESPECTIVELY. A 1035MB HIGH IS DOMINATING THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. LOCALLY...THE OHIO VALLEY IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...WITH A BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING LIGHT NWRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE MID- LEVELS...A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROF IS DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A CLOSED H5 LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WITH THE TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO IL. WITH A NRLY
FLOW ALOFT...BKN SC CONTINUES TO ADVECT SWD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS RURAL AREAS
NORTH OF I-70. TEMPS ARE WARMER SWD...STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
OVERNIGHT...A NWLRY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NRLY...WITH A
BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT...WITH PTLY-MSTLY CLDY SKIES. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS W-CNTRL OH TO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO...LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -5 TO
-10. ANY ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE CUT OFF WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...WINDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVERAGE TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA BELOW -10. UPDATED GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS...LOWERING TEMPS AND TDS FURTHER BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A DRY
PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN WEST-NORTHWEST ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
IN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN A S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED CLOSE TO ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BEING QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. BEST MSTR AND FORCING TO STAY TO THE NORTH. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION FRI/FRI EVE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY
WX AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA.
AT THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION. BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
IN INDIANA. THIS AREA ALONG WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS IN
NORTHEAST OHIO SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 06Z
AND EVENTUALLY FALL BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE DAY WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING SCATTERED
BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KILN 192345
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE LIMITED
MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES PERSISTING.
EXPECT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER CHUNK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH. WIND CHILLS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE -10...SO AN ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A DRY
PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN WEST-NORTHWEST ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
IN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN A S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED CLOSE TO ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BEING QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. BEST MSTR AND FORCING TO STAY TO THE NORTH. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION FRI/FRI EVE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY
WX AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA.
AT THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION. BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
IN INDIANA. THIS AREA ALONG WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS IN
NORTHEAST OHIO SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 06Z
AND EVENTUALLY FALL BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE DAY WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING SCATTERED
BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KILN 192120
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE LIMITED
MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES PERSISTING.
EXPECT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER CHUNK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH. WIND CHILLS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE -10...SO AN ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A DRY
PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN WEST-NORTHWEST ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
IN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN A S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED CLOSE TO ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BEING QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. BEST MSTR AND FORCING TO STAY TO THE NORTH. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION FRI/FRI EVE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT POP FOR CAA SNOW SHOWERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING CONTD DRY
WX AND COOL TEMPS SUNDAY. UPR FLO TO BACK AHD OF SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING. HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA.
AT THIS TIME HAVE A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LVL NVA IN WAKE OF MRNG S/WV HAD ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS TO
SCATTER TO SOME DEGREE. EARLIER -SHSN HAD EXTENSIVELY DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT ALL
THIS AFTN. SOME LINGERING HZ PERSISTING...MOST NOTABLY AT KCVG...
BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES RIDGING
ACRS REGION.
ONE LAST S/WV PIVOTING AROUND BASE OF DEPARTING UPR LO TONIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING S/WV WELL SOUTH
INTO THE TN VLY LATE. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE -SHSN ACTIVITY ACRS THE
REGION AND HAVE LEFT TEMPO PERIOD FOR -SHSN AT ONLY KCVG AND KLUK
AROUND MIDNIGHT. EVEN HERE...-SHSN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LITTLE IF
ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WITH APPCH AND PASSAGE OF S/WV AXIS
OVERNIGHT...SC DECK WILL LIKELY REDVLP AND DROP INTO MVFR CAT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER ON TUES AS REGION REMAINS IN NW FLO
ALOFT AND THERMAL TROF AT 850MB LAGS ACRS FCST AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 191739
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1239 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LVL S/WV THAT PRODUCED -SN ERLY THIS MRNG HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE FCST AREA AS OF 15Z. SCT -SHSN AND FLURRIES WERE DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM NRN INDIANA. NUMEROUS OBS INDCG
IFR AND LOWER VSBYS...BUT THINK THIS IS MORE A RESULT OF LOW CIGS
RATHER THAN AN INDICATOR OF THE INTENSITY OF THE -SHSN. KILN RADAR
AND KDAY TDWR BOTH SUPPORTING A VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL...AND CALLS
WITH LOCAL CUSTOMERS SUGGESTING LIKEWISE. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS.
SCT -SHSN WILL REFOCUS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF FCST AREA
INTO THE AFTN HOURS AS ANOTHER WEAK S/WV AND SOME SUBTLE LK
MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTES TO GREATER COVERAGE. COULD SEE A
DUSTING TO FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUM...PARTICULARLY IF -SHSN
SIT OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR AN EXTENDED LENGTH OF TIME. FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST ACRS FCST AREA...EXPECT JUST FLURRIES FOR AFTN
HOURS. LOWERED AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
CONTINUED LO LVL CAA TODAY. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA NORTH OF I-70
NOT LIKELY TO GET ABV 20 DEG THIS AFTN.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY BUILD IN THE HIGH
LATER TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIG THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER
S...KEEPING THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE NW...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN
A WLY FLOW. WITH THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...A STRAY SHSN COULD LINGER
INTO TUE NGT. PREFERRED THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS HANDLING A H5 S/W
DROPPING THRU THE LAKES ON WED BETTER.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE
NGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE N.
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 10 BELOW TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENUF
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION IT IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LVL NVA IN WAKE OF MRNG S/WV HAD ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS TO
SCATTER TO SOME DEGREE. EARLIER -SHSN HAD EXTENSIVELY DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT ALL
THIS AFTN. SOME LINGERING HZ PERSISTING...MOST NOTABLY AT KCVG...
BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES RIDGING
ACRS REGION.
ONE LAST S/WV PIVOTING AROUND BASE OF DEPARTING UPR LO TONIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING S/WV WELL SOUTH
INTO THE TN VLY LATE. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE -SHSN ACTIVITY ACRS THE
REGION AND HAVE LEFT TEMPO PERIOD FOR -SHSN AT ONLY KCVG AND KLUK
AROUND MIDNIGHT. EVEN HERE...-SHSN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LITTLE IF
ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WITH APPCH AND PASSAGE OF S/WV AXIS
OVERNIGHT...SC DECK WILL LIKELY REDVLP AND DROP INTO MVFR CAT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER ON TUES AS REGION REMAINS IN NW FLO
ALOFT AND THERMAL TROF AT 850MB LAGS ACRS FCST AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 191136
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO CLEAR UP THE LINGERING SNOW IN THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY BUILD IN THE HIGH
LATER TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIG THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER
S...KEEPING THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE NW...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN
A WLY FLOW. WITH THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...A STRAY SHSN COULD LINGER
INTO TUE NGT. PREFERRED THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS HANDLING A H5 S/W
DROPPING THRU THE LAKES ON WED BETTER.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE
NGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE N.
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 10 BELOW TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENUF
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION IT IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PUNCH NOTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING
ALL BUT KDAY AROUND TAF ISSUANCE TIME. LOW STRATUS WILL BE
KNOCKING ON KDAY BY THIS TIME AND APPEARS TO BE AN INDICATOR THAT
AS THE SUN HITS THE DRY SLOT...IT SHOULD CU UP NICELY BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF
THE MEAN L/W TROUGH.
EMBEDDED VORTS SWINGING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DO NOT THINK THAT
THEY WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH AT ANY LOCATION...BUT THEY COULD BE A
PERSISTENT PHENOMENON DUE TO THE AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
UPWARD MOTION ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 191109
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
609 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO CLEAR UP THE LINGERING SNOW IN THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY BUILD IN THE HIGH
LATER TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIG THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER
S...KEEPING THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE NW...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN
A WLY FLOW. WITH THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...A STRAY SHSN COULD LINGER
INTO TUE NGT. PREFERRED THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS HANDLING A H5 S/W
DROPPING THRU THE LAKES ON WED BETTER.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE
NGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE N.
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 10 BELOW TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENUF
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION IT IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
L/W TROUGH OVER OHVLY AND GTLKS REGION IS SHOWING A VORT LOBE OR
S/W ROTATING SE THROUGH THE OHVLY ATTM. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS IT IS
RUNNING FROM JUST E OF METRO CINCY TO S OF METRO INDY AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SSE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SNOWFALL N OF THIS VORT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LINGERING SHOWER AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
EXHIBITS SOME DOWNWARD MOTION DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE VORT.
S OF OHRIVER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ALTHOUGH DECREASE FROM
N-S. LLVL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME
CLEARING NOTED N OF I-70. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS CLEARING WILL
PERSIST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS FOR NRN TAF SITES EARLY IN THE
FORECAST. MOISTURE AT H8 AND H9 IS PRETTY JUICY AND WITH CONTINUED
CAA WORKING IN ON NW WINDS...BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY CLEARING OVER NRN CWA WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
A STRATUS DECK AS SUNSHINE HITS THE AREA AND CREATES A LITTLE
MIXING TO SPARK THE CLOUD COVER.
SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND THE CURRENT NEXT OBSERVATION OR TWO IN THE S
WILL BE LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AND OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW THIS. A BREAK OR TWO OVER THE NORTH IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE SUN HITS THE COLUMN. VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWER IN THE
BEGINNING OF THE VALID FCST.
SOME LE IS POSSIBLE AT CVG AND DAY AFTER ABOUT 0Z BUT SHOULD
REMIAN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 190925
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
H5 S/W IS OVER SW OH/SE INDIANA ATTM. RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL STAY S OF FA. AREA OF DEFORMATION S REMAINS
ACRS SRN OH...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW.
AS VORT SLIDES E OF FA BY 12Z...THE SN IN KY WILL PUSH E. EXPECT
THE DEFORMATION SNOW TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WENT HIGH POPS IN THE
DEFORMATION SNOW EARLY.
EXPECT SOME SCT SHSN TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE H8 CAA. WENT CHC
POPS AFT ABOUT 15Z.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE S HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN EXPECTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE S AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
ON THE N TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY BUILD IN THE HIGH
LATER TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIG THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER
S...KEEPING THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE NW...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN
A WLY FLOW. WITH THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...A STRAY SHSN COULD LINGER
INTO TUE NGT. PREFERRED THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS HANDLING A H5 S/W
DROPPING THRU THE LAKES ON WED BETTER.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE
NGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE N.
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 10 BELOW TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENUF
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION IT IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
L/W TROUGH OVER OHVLY AND GTLKS REGION IS SHOWING A VORT LOBE OR
S/W ROTATING SE THROUGH THE OHVLY ATTM. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS IT IS
RUNNING FROM JUST E OF METRO CINCY TO S OF METRO INDY AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SSE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SNOWFALL N OF THIS VORT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LINGERING SHOWER AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
EXHIBITS SOME DOWNWARD MOTION DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE VORT.
S OF OHRIVER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ALTHOUGH DECREASE FROM
N-S. LLVL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME
CLEARING NOTED N OF I-70. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS CLEARING WILL
PERSIST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS FOR NRN TAF SITES EARLY IN THE
FORECAST. MOISTURE AT H8 AND H9 IS PRETTY JUICY AND WITH CONTINUED
CAA WORKING IN ON NW WINDS...BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY CLEARING OVER NRN CWA WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
A STRATUS DECK AS SUNSHINE HITS THE AREA AND CREATES A LITTLE
MIXING TO SPARK THE CLOUD COVER.
SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND THE CURRENT NEXT OBSERVATION OR TWO IN THE S
WILL BE LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AND OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW THIS. A BREAK OR TWO OVER THE NORTH IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE SUN HITS THE COLUMN. VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWER IN THE
BEGINNING OF THE VALID FCST.
SOME LE IS POSSIBLE AT CVG AND DAY AFTER ABOUT 0Z BUT SHOULD
REMIAN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 190553
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND SOMEWHAT MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ENHANCED SHSN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IL ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH LOWER OH VLY. WITH INCREASE IN COVERAGE...HAVE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH FAR SW
FORECAST AREA HAVING BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AND
POINTS NORTH...WITH AREA OF CLEARING MOVING INTO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN DROP TO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. THIS
CLEARING SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUDS ASSOC WITH ADVANCING
VORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WHICH
WILL BE OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH MINUS 10. A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
CHILLS MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
L/W TROUGH OVER OHVLY AND GTLKS REGION IS SHOWING A VORT LOBE OR
S/W ROTATING SE THROUGH THE OHVLY ATTM. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS IT IS
RUNNING FROM JUST E OF METRO CINCY TO S OF METRO INDY AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SSE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SNOWFALL N OF THIS VORT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LINGERING SHOWER AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
EXHIBITS SOME DOWNWARD MOTION DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE VORT.
S OF OHRIVER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ALTHOUGH DECREASE FROM
N-S. LLVL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME
CLEARING NOTED N OF I-70. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS CLEARING WILL
PERSIST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS FOR NRN TAF SITES EARLY IN THE
FORECAST. MOISTURE AT H8 AND H9 IS PRETTY JUICY AND WITH CONTINUED
CAA WORKING IN ON NW WINDS...BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY CLEARING OVER NRN CWA WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
A STRATUS DECK AS SUNSHINE HITS THE AREA AND CREATES A LITTLE
MIXING TO SPARK THE CLOUD COVER.
SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND THE CURRENT NEXT OBSERVATION OR TWO IN THE S
WILL BE LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AND OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW THIS. A BREAK OR TWO OVER THE NORTH IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE SUN HITS THE COLUMN. VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWER IN THE
BEGINNING OF THE VALID FCST.
SOME LE IS POSSIBLE AT CVG AND DAY AFTER ABOUT 0Z BUT SHOULD
REMIAN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 190247
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND SOMEWHAT MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ENHANCED SHSN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IL ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH LOWER OH VLY. WITH INCREASE IN COVERAGE...HAVE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH FAR SW
FORECAST AREA HAVING BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AND
POINTS NORTH...WITH AREA OF CLEARING MOVING INTO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN DROP TO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. THIS
CLEARING SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUDS ASSOC WITH ADVANCING
VORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WHICH
WILL BE OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH MINUS 10. A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
CHILLS MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF SHSN HAVE NOW DIMINISHED ACROSS AREA...WITH AREA OF
CLEARING/NVA OVER NRN IN WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIOD OF ONLY SCT CLDS FOR DAY/CMH AND LCK BEFORE NEXT S/WV
SWINGS AROUND AND PIVOTS THROUGH AREA FROM ROUGHLY 06-14Z. LOOKS
LIKE NAM12/RUC A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH BEST S/WV ENERGY...SO
AM BRINGING IN THE BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS INTO
CVG/ILN/LUK FROM THE 06-13Z PERIOD. WHILE DAY/CMH/LCK MAY ALSO SEE
SNOW SHOWERS...PLAYING IT DOWN A LITTLE MORE THESE AREAS. KDAY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING A LITTLE LK MI ENHANCED SHSN
DURING THE DAYTIME ONCE THE S/WV SWINGS THROUGH. CIGS AFTER 12Z
WILL LINGER IN THE MVFR CAT WITH PLENTY OF LL MSTR...THEN LIFT TO
VFR NR/AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDR
000
FXUS61 KILN 190007
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
707 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND SOMEWHAT MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AREA IS UNDER A
COLD WESTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED TONIGHT DUE TO A SECONDARY
FRONT AND THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES. COLD
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WHICH
WILL BE OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH MINUS 10. A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
CHILLS MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF SHSN HAVE NOW DIMINISHED ACROSS AREA...WITH AREA OF
CLEARING/NVA OVER NRN IN WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIOD OF ONLY SCT CLDS FOR DAY/CMH AND LCK BEFORE NEXT S/WV
SWINGS AROUND AND PIVOTS THROUGH AREA FROM ROUGHLY 06-14Z. LOOKS
LIKE NAM12/RUC A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH BEST S/WV ENERGY...SO
AM BRINGING IN THE BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS INTO
CVG/ILN/LUK FROM THE 06-13Z PERIOD. WHILE DAY/CMH/LCK MAY ALSO SEE
SNOW SHOWERS...PLAYING IT DOWN A LITTLE MORE THESE AREAS. KDAY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING A LITTLE LK MI ENHANCED SHSN
DURING THE DAYTIME ONCE THE S/WV SWINGS THROUGH. CIGS AFTER 12Z
WILL LINGER IN THE MVFR CAT WITH PLENTY OF LL MSTR...THEN LIFT TO
VFR NR/AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/RYAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDR
000
FXUS61 KILN 182131
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND SOMEWHAT MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AREA IS UNDER A
COLD WESTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED TONIGHT DUE TO A SECONDARY
FRONT AND THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES. COLD
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WHICH
WILL BE OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH MINUS 10. A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
CHILLS MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON ITS
BACKSIDE WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLN WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
SE INTO THE OHIO VLY BY WED AFTN. WITH S/W ENERGY AND MSTR STAYING TO
THE NE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO DROP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MSTR AND FORCING IS LIMITED SO HAVE
ONLY LOW CHC POPS NE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THRU TN VLY AND HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DRYING OUT THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS WAVE ON THIS FRONT AND SPREADS
PRECIP NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NO MENTION OF PRECIP WITH ONLY A SILENT 15 PERCENT ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LVL S/WV MOVING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. STILL SEEING FLURRIES AND
SCT -SHSN AFFECTING NRN 1/2 FCST AREA...AND ALL OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK. HAVE PLACED VCSH WORDING IN AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THRU LATE AFTN FOR SCT -SHSN. COULD SEE BRIEF DROPS INTO
MVFR CAT WITH HEAVIER -SHSN...PARTICULARLY AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK.
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPR LO OVER
THE CNTRL GRT LKS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLR ACRS NORTHERN
INDIANA/ILLINOIS THIS AFTN. POSSIBLE THAT SC DECK MAY SCATTER FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG.
NEXT S/WV RIDING AROUND BASE OF UPR LO WILL DIVE INTO REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK TO MVFR CAT WITH SCT
FLURRIES AND -SHSN. COULD ALSO SEE VSBYS DROP TO MVFR CAT IN
HEAVIER -SHSN AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS BUT KCVG AND KLUK. S/WV WILL
BE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MON...WITH LINGERING SC DECK IN
CONTINUED LO LVL CAA PATTERN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/RYAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 181748
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1248 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BEHIND THE
LOW...A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THRU FAR SE COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE FCST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SCT -SHSN HAD DVLPD
IN LO LVL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPCHG MID LVL S/WV.
TEMPS REMAINED IN THE L30S ACRS SE FCST AREA...AND WILL BE THE
HIGHS FOR THE DAY. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE L/M20S ACRS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA AND WITH CAA PERSISTING THIS AFTN...
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OR REMAIN STEADY IN THE 17-23
DEG RANGE.
RUC HAS NICE HANDLE ON LOCATION OF S/WV AXIS ACRS CNTRL INDIANA AT
15Z. S/WV AXIS AND ASSOCD VORT ENERGY WILL TRANSITION ACRS FCST
AREA THRU MID/LATE AFTN. WEAK LO LVL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT -SHSN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
S/WV. COULD SEE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER -SHSN ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST
AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY MINOR ACCUMS APPCH ONE INCH. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN LIGHT ACCUMS FROM HEAVIER -SHSN THAT MOVED THRU THE DAY METRO
AND INTO GREENE CO WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. -SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
JUST A FEW FLURRIES IN WAKE OF THE S/WV PASSAGE ACRS WESTERN 1/2
FCST AREA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. VIS SAT INDCG
LARGE AREA OF CLR SKIES ACRS NRN INDIANA/ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH REGION
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLO WITH SC ACRS LWR MICHIGAN
DROPPING SOUTH INTO FCST AREA THIS AFTN...LOWERED SKY GRIDS ACRS
NW 1/2 FCST AREA WITH POSSIBILITY AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 LOW REMAINS OVER THE LAKES AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS
DROP SIGNIFICANT S/W AROUND THE LOW TNGT. SFC AND H8 FLOW REMAIN
FROM THE N TO NW THRU THE PERIOD. THEREFORE EXPECT SCT SHSN TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT.
CENTER OF H5 LOW MOVES INTO THE ERN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...SFC AND
H8 FLOW WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENUF INSTABILITY
FOR SHSN MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY
DROPS INTO ERN US TROF TO HELP AID IN THE LIFT.
FINALLY BY TUE THE H8 THERMAL TROF IS E OF THE FA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
MAV TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAV HIGHS FOR TUE
LOOKED TOO COLD...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LVL S/WV MOVING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. STILL SEEING FLURRIES AND
SCT -SHSN AFFECTING NRN 1/2 FCST AREA...AND ALL OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK. HAVE PLACED VCSH WORDING IN AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THRU LATE AFTN FOR SCT -SHSN. COULD SEE BRIEF DROPS INTO
MVFR CAT WITH HEAVIER -SHSN...PARTICULARLY AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK.
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPR LO OVER
THE CNTRL GRT LKS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLR ACRS NORTHERN
INDIANA/ILLINOIS THIS AFTN. POSSIBLE THAT SC DECK MAY SCATTER FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG.
NEXT S/WV RIDING AROUND BASE OF UPR LO WILL DIVE INTO REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK TO MVFR CAT WITH SCT
FLURRIES AND -SHSN. COULD ALSO SEE VSBYS DROP TO MVFR CAT IN
HEAVIER -SHSN AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS BUT KCVG AND KLUK. S/WV WILL
BE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MON...WITH LINGERING SC DECK IN
CONTINUED LO LVL CAA PATTERN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 181527
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BEHIND THE
LOW...A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THRU FAR SE COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE FCST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SCT -SHSN HAD DVLPD
IN LO LVL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPCHG MID LVL S/WV.
TEMPS REMAINED IN THE L30S ACRS SE FCST AREA...AND WILL BE THE
HIGHS FOR THE DAY. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE L/M20S ACRS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA AND WITH CAA PERSISTING THIS AFTN...
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OR REMAIN STEADY IN THE 17-23
DEG RANGE.
RUC HAS NICE HANDLE ON LOCATION OF S/WV AXIS ACRS CNTRL INDIANA AT
15Z. S/WV AXIS AND ASSOCD VORT ENERGY WILL TRANSITION ACRS FCST
AREA THRU MID/LATE AFTN. WEAK LO LVL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT -SHSN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
S/WV. COULD SEE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER -SHSN ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST
AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY MINOR ACCUMS APPCH ONE INCH. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN LIGHT ACCUMS FROM HEAVIER -SHSN THAT MOVED THRU THE DAY METRO
AND INTO GREENE CO WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. -SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
JUST A FEW FLURRIES IN WAKE OF THE S/WV PASSAGE ACRS WESTERN 1/2
FCST AREA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. VIS SAT INDCG
LARGE AREA OF CLR SKIES ACRS NRN INDIANA/ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH REGION
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLO WITH SC ACRS LWR MICHIGAN
DROPPING SOUTH INTO FCST AREA THIS AFTN...LOWERED SKY GRIDS ACRS
NW 1/2 FCST AREA WITH POSSIBILITY AT SEEING SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 LOW REMAINS OVER THE LAKES AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS
DROP SIGNIFICANT S/W AROUND THE LOW TNGT. SFC AND H8 FLOW REMAIN
FROM THE N TO NW THRU THE PERIOD. THEREFORE EXPECT SCT SHSN TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT.
CENTER OF H5 LOW MOVES INTO THE ERN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...SFC AND
H8 FLOW WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENUF INSTABILITY
FOR SHSN MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY
DROPS INTO ERN US TROF TO HELP AID IN THE LIFT.
FINALLY BY TUE THE H8 THERMAL TROF IS E OF THE FA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
MAV TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAV HIGHS FOR TUE
LOOKED TOO COLD...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST SHIFT OF WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
CVG-CMH-CLE AT ISSUANCE TIME THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO THE LOW END OF THIS AND SOME RISING ABOVE 3KFT ARE
SCATTERED ABOUT NORTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF IND...UPSTREAM OF THE TAF
SITES. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DAY AND CMH...PARTICULARLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. COLD POOL SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WEAKEN BY NOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED
OVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT VSBYS UP AND LEFT VCSH OUT OF ALL
BUT KCMH/KLCK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL VSBYS IN THE SAME WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 181141
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BEHIND THE
LOW...A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT IS PUSHING THRU EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SOME RA/DZ/FZDZ IS FALLING. BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE
ALL SN. WITH THE FNT TARGETED TO BE E OF THE FA IN AN HOUR OR
SO...WILL GO WITH JUST SN FOR THE TODAY FCST.
LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING IS THIS MORNING...BUT WITH NW SFC FLOW
OFF LAKES AND CAA AT H8 CANT RULE OUT SHSN INTO THIS AFTN. THERE
IS SOME SHEAR BETWEEN THE SFC AND H8 WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE SHSN A
LITTLE.
LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE SE WILL BE THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPS WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN THE W...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF
REBOUND. ALL THE TEMP GUIDANCE WAS CLUSTERED TOGETHER...SO SAW NO
REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM MAV GUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 LOW REMAINS OVER THE LAKES AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS
DROP SIGNIFICANT S/W AROUND THE LOW TNGT. SFC AND H8 FLOW REMAIN
FROM THE N TO NW THRU THE PERIOD. THEREFORE EXPECT SCT SHSN TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT.
CENTER OF H5 LOW MOVES INTO THE ERN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...SFC AND
H8 FLOW WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENUF INSTABILITY
FOR SHSN MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY
DROPS INTO ERN US TROF TO HELP AID IN THE LIFT.
FINALLY BY TUE THE H8 THERMAL TROF IS E OF THE FA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
MAV TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAV HIGHS FOR TUE
LOOKED TOO COLD...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST SHIFT OF WINDS OCCURING ALNOG THE I-71 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
CVG-CMH-CLE AT ISSUANCE TIME THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO THE LOW END OF THIS AND SOME RISING ABOVE 3KFT ARE
SCATTERED ABOUT NORTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF IND...UPSTREAM OF THE TAF
SITES. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DAY AND CMH...PARTICULARLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. COLD POOL SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WEAKEN BY NOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED
OVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT VSBYS UP AND LEFT VCSH OUT OF ALL
BUT KCMH/KLCK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
OCCASIONAL VSBYS IN THE SAME WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 180914
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BEHIND THE
LOW...A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT IS PUSHING THRU EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SOME RA/DZ/FZDZ IS FALLING. BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE
ALL SN. WITH THE FNT TARGETED TO BE E OF THE FA IN AN HOUR OR
SO...WILL GO WITH JUST SN FOR THE TODAY FCST.
LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING IS THIS MORNING...BUT WITH NW SFC FLOW
OFF LAKES AND CAA AT H8 CANT RULE OUT SHSN INTO THIS AFTN. THERE
IS SOME SHEAR BETWEEN THE SFC AND H8 WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE SHSN A
LITTLE.
LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE SE WILL BE THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPS WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN THE W...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF
REBOUND. ALL THE TEMP GUIDANCE WAS CLUSTERED TOGETHER...SO SAW NO
REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM MAV GUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 LOW REMAINS OVER THE LAKES AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS
DROP SIGNIFICANT S/W AROUND THE LOW TNGT. SFC AND H8 FLOW REMAIN
FROM THE N TO NW THRU THE PERIOD. THEREFORE EXPECT SCT SHSN TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT.
CENTER OF H5 LOW MOVES INTO THE ERN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...SFC AND
H8 FLOW WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENUF INSTABILITY
FOR SHSN MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY
DROPS INTO ERN US TROF TO HELP AID IN THE LIFT.
FINALLY BY TUE THE H8 THERMAL TROF IS E OF THE FA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
MAV TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAV HIGHS FOR TUE
LOOKED TOO COLD...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH OHVLY WILL TURN WINDS WEST BEHIND IT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH CWA IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. RAIN AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH SNOW. A
NUMBER OF UPSTREAM SITES ARE REPORTING FZDZ SINCE THE SOURCE
REGION WITH CONDENSATION NUCLEI IS NOT SHOWING ANY ICE TO FALL
INTO THE COLUMN AND CREATE SNOW. THINK THAT THESE FZRA/FZDZ
REPORTS WILL BE ON AND OFF AND IS NOT A FEATURE THAT CAN BE
CONFINED TO ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A SPECIFIC TIME FRAME. COLD
POOL SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WEAKEN LATER AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED OVER. LOW CIGS IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH OCCASIONAL VSBYS IN THE SAME WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 180604
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE LOW...A
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ON MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN
05Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH UPR LVL LIFT FROM A
S/W ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE RADAR TRENDS IN PCPN COVERAGE
AND ALSO TO GET A LOOK AT THE NEW NAM-WRF. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
THAT WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE...SOME MID LVL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACRS THE REGION...AND MAY FORM WITH UPR LVL
FORCING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES/GRIDS BY 10 PM. ADDING A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO...SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RISING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WEIGHING MORE ON RAW 2 METER MODEL DATA THAN MOS GUIDANCE
AS IT TENDS TO HANDLE LOW LVL CAA/WAA BETTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
DUE TO PERSISTENT INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH
ROTATING BEHIND THE LOW. A LAKE FETCH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SECONDARY TROUGH ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THAT MAY SEEM WARM COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH OHVLY WILL TURN WINDS WEST BEHIND IT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH CWA IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. RAIN AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH SNOW. A
NUMBER OF UPSTREAM SITES ARE REPORTING FZDZ SINCE THE SOURCE
REGION WITH CONDENSATION NUCLEI IS NOT SHOWING ANY ICE TO FALL
INTO THE COLUMN AND CREATE SNOW. THINK THAT THESE FZRA/FZDZ
REPORTS WILL BE ON AND OFF AND IS NOT A FEATURE THAT CAN BE
CONFINED TO ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A SPECIFIC TIME FRAME. COLD
POOL SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WEAKEN LATER AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED OVER. LOW CIGS IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH OCCASIONAL VSBYS IN THE SAME WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 180145
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
845 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE LOW...A
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ON MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN
05Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH UPR LVL LIFT FROM A
S/W ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE RADAR TRENDS IN PCPN COVERAGE
AND ALSO TO GET A LOOK AT THE NEW NAM-WRF. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
THAT WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE...SOME MID LVL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACRS THE REGION...AND MAY FORM WITH UPR LVL
FORCING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES/GRIDS BY 10 PM. ADDING A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO...SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RISING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WEIGHING MORE ON RAW 2 METER MODEL DATA THAN MOS GUIDANCE
AS IT TENDS TO HANDLE LOW LVL CAA/WAA BETTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
DUE TO PERSISTENT INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH
ROTATING BEHIND THE LOW. A LAKE FETCH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SECONDARY TROUGH ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THAT MAY SEEM WARM COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.
UPR LVL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP -SN IN THE TAFS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME LCL IFR POSSIBLE
NEAR KCMH/KLCK WHERE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. ONCE
FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAA AND LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY AFTN BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE COLD UNSTABLE AIR
RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGAIN...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE AFTER 22Z AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
MAIN UPR LVL TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 172335
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE LOW...A
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ON MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
20Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ABOUT TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
LOW IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY AND IT WILL REACH EASTERN MICHIGAN BY
11Z. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
I-70. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ADVECTION MORE THAN DIURNAL INFLUENCE
TONIGHT...WITH READINGS STEADY OR RISING FOR FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET BEFORE FALLING TO THE TEENS AND 20S LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
DUE TO PERSISTENT INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH
ROTATING BEHIND THE LOW. A LAKE FETCH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SECONDARY TROUGH ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THAT MAY SEEM WARM COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.
UPR LVL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP -SN IN THE TAFS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME LCL IFR POSSIBLE
NEAR KCMH/KLCK WHERE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. ONCE
FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAA AND LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY AFTN BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE COLD UNSTABLE AIR
RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGAIN...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE AFTER 22Z AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
MAIN UPR LVL TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 172129
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE LOW...A
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ON MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE STARTING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
20Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ABOUT TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
LOW IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY AND IT WILL REACH EASTERN MICHIGAN BY
11Z. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
I-70. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ADVECTION MORE THAN DIURNAL INFLUENCE
TONIGHT...WITH READINGS STEADY OR RISING FOR FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET BEFORE FALLING TO THE TEENS AND 20S LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
DUE TO PERSISTENT INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH
ROTATING BEHIND THE LOW. A LAKE FETCH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SECONDARY TROUGH ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THAT MAY SEEM WARM COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES THRU A TRANSITION FROM BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO A SPLIT MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS ZONAL FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ECMWF SOLN SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER WAVE. HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN...LIMITING CHC POPS TO THE FAR
NORTH AND ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SC DECK ASSOCD WITH ISENT LIFT AFFECTING MAINLY KCMH/KLCK
TERMINALS ERLY THIS AFTN. DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF ISENT LIFT ALLOWING
FOR A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACRS SRN HALF OF
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS WITH BKN
AC/CI AS PREDOMINANT CIG AND GUSTY SRLY WINDS. AS COLD FRONT APPCHS
FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTN...STRENGTHENING SRLY FLO WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA WITH SC REDVLPG AROUND/SHORTLY
AFT SUNSET.
-SN WILL DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FROPA THIS EVNG...CONTINUING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LO LVL CAA DVLPS IN WAKE OF BNDRY. MVFR CIGS
WILL DVLP WITH POTENTIAL AT MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH -SN AT ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHWNG WEAK INSTABILITY DVLPG
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MID LVL S/WV.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDL -SHSN THRU THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH AN
ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY SUN AFTN INVOF S/WV AXIS AND
WITH STEEPENING LO LVL LAPSE RATES. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT ALL
TERMINALS ATTM. LATER SHIFTS CAN PROVIDE ADDL DETAILS AS THERE
WILL LKLY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH SOME OF THE -SHSN. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD...WITH W/SW WINDS BECMG GUSTY BY MID
MRNG SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 171746
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1246 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING AN AREA OF SNOW. NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF ISENT LIFT NICELY DEFINED ON 280-285K RUC MOVING ACRS NRN
FCST AREA ATTM. SEEING SOME FLURRIES AS THIS SHOT OF ISENT LIFT
PASSES THRU...PROBABLY EVEN SEEING -SHSN WITHIN HEAVIER RETURNS
OVER FAR NRN FCST AREA. ADDED SCHC -SHSN OVER FAR NORTH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEPER ISENT LIFT SHIFTS
EAST OF FCST AREA BY ERLY AFTN...WITH ANY -SHSN/FLURRIES
DIMINISHING.
SC DECK ASSOCD WITH ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST INTO AFTN
HOURS...WITH A PREVAILING BKN MID LVL DECK FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AFTN. CURRENT VIS SAT SHWNG A FAIR AMT OF CLEARING BACK ACRS
SRN ILLINOIS AHEAD OF APPCHG COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBILITY TO SEE
SOME SUN ACRS SRN FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTN. CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/
-SHSN WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY ERLY EVNG AS SFC LO
MOVES INTO WRN MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT APPCHG WRN FCST
AREA.
TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED NICELY THIS MRNG FROM ANOTHER SUBZERO NIGHT
FOR MANY. TEMPS HAD WARMED INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ACRS FCST AREA AS SRLY FLO AND LO LVL WAA HAVE COMMENCED. WIND
CHILLS HAVE LARGELY RISEN ABV -10F WITH WARMER TEMPS THIS
MRNG...AND HAVE ALLOWED WIND CHILL ADV TO EXPIRE. WHILE EXPECT
CONTINUED WARMING WITH WAA THIS AFTN...DROPPED HIGHS FROM ERLY
MRNG FCST SVRL DEG...RANGING FROM L20S NORTH TO L30S SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS FA SAT NGT. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF FNT. SINCE THE COLUMN WAS BEING SATURATED ON SAT...SHOULD SEE
ENUF MOISTURE WITH FNT TO GET A PERIOD OF SNOW. WENT LIKELY IN THE
NE...TAPERING DOWN TO CHC IN THE SW. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN/ NORTHEAST
COUNTIES....WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
H5 TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS DROP ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO TROF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WITH NLY CAA FLOW...SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHSN. THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED S/W SUN NGT...THAT WILL PASS TO THE SSW OF THE FA
AND IT MIGHT GIVE A BETTER CHC OF ORGANIZED SNOW TO THE SW SUN
NGT. RIGHT NOW KEPT THE POPS AT 40 UNTIL THINGS COME A LITTLE CLEARER.
AXIS OF H5 TROF TRIES TO WORK E ON MONDAY...BUT AND S/W DIVES INTO
THE ERN US TROF..SO KEPT A CHC OF SHSN IN ON MONDAY.
MAV TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SEEMED REASONABLE...SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTINENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS
FLOW PATTERN...WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE TOWARD ONE MODEL OR THE
OTHER.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. THIS BRINGS ZONAL
FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT SUPPORT OF ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ITS ENSEMBLE...OR THE ECMWF...THIS SOLN WAS IGNORED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SC DECK ASSOCD WITH ISENT LIFT AFFECTING MAINLY KCMH/KLCK
TERMINALS ERLY THIS AFTN. DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF ISENT LIFT ALLOWING
FOR A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACRS SRN HALF OF
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS WITH BKN
AC/CI AS PREDOMINANT CIG AND GUSTY SRLY WINDS. AS COLD FRONT APPCHS
FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTN...STRENGTHENING SRLY FLO WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA WITH SC REDVLPG AROUND/SHORTLY
AFT SUNSET.
-SN WILL DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FROPA THIS EVNG...CONTINUING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LO LVL CAA DVLPS IN WAKE OF BNDRY. MVFR CIGS
WILL DVLP WITH POTENTIAL AT MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH -SN AT ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHWNG WEAK INSTABILITY DVLPG
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MID LVL S/WV.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDL -SHSN THRU THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH AN
ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY SUN AFTN INVOF S/WV AXIS AND
WITH STEEPENING LO LVL LAPSE RATES. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT ALL
TERMINALS ATTM. LATER SHIFTS CAN PROVIDE ADDL DETAILS AS THERE
WILL LKLY BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH SOME OF THE -SHSN. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD...WITH W/SW WINDS BECMG GUSTY BY MID
MRNG SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...RYAN
| 
