000
FXUS63 KICT 201743
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS
HANGING ON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL TEND TO RESTRICT
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED MIXING MAY ALSO RESTRICT TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AS A RESULT..WE
DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
COX
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE LOW CEILINGS HAD FINALLY ERODED ACROSS THE SLN/HUT/AND ICT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKE CNU WILL BE THE LAST PLACE TO
ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE WENT AND DELAYED THE
CLEARING TREND UNTIL 21Z. ANOTHER WEAK TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
COX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. OVERNIGHT A
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND IS NOW
DIVING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THE ONLY AFFECT THIS FEATURE
HAD ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER WAS TO ALLOW A BAND OF MVFR CIGS TO PUSH
WEST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT KCNU THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KICT AND KSLN WILL
EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS THIS BAND OF
CLOUDS STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT WEST OF I-135.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-WED:
BROKEN RECORD OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFTS CONTINUE. BATCH OF CLOUDS
MAY BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
COULD MAKE TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY...AS CLOUDS/WINDS HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY CUT INTO WARM UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BREAK LATE. WINDS APPEAR TO DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT EFFECTS OF OTHERWISE GOOD
DOWNSLOPE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. CAUTIOUSLY
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF GOING FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
A LOT OF BUST POTENTIAL. ABOUT THE SAME STORY ON WED AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES EITHER STRUGGLE
OR SOAR IN THIS SETUP...WITH MUCH DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE DAY.
THU:
REMARKABLY LITTLE FLOW EVEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON THU. SIMILAR TO
TUE/WED...THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT MIXING AND WARM UP
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THAT TENDENCY IS TO UNDERFORECAST MAXES AHEAD OF
FRONTS...HAVE CONTINUED THE CURRENT WARM TREND...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KS WHERE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT DRY FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
FRI-SUN:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
SUN NIGHT-MON:
NORMALLY WOULD NOT MAKE CHANGES THIS FAR OUT ON MIDNIGHT SHIFT...BUT
0000 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL BOTH QUITE SIMILAR SHOWING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT UNFOLDING LATE SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON MON. THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL HAVE PUSHED VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER SOUTH...RANGING FROM THE 4TH RUN BACK WHICH
HAD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF ICT AT 0000 UTC TUE...TO NOW WELL
INTO TX WITH TONIGHTS RUN. BOTH 0000 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL
SUGGEST GOOD OVERRUNNING OF COLD DOME DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 0000
UTC TUE...WITH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHOWING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 10-20 AT THE SAME TIME. HAVE CUT MAXES SEVERAL
DEG BUT UNFORTUNATELY STILL IS WELL ABOVE WHAT IS ANTICIPATED. DAY
SHIFT WILL BE SLASHING TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE SINCE CHANGES THIS
PACKAGE WERE LIMITED BY CONSENSUS/POLICY ISSUES. ADDED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND ALTHOUGH GRIDS
CURRENTLY SHOW RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOUTHEAST KS...SUSPECT ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE FROZEN. -HOWERTON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS OF 2,500-3,000FT WILL SPREAD S ACROSS KCNU AFTERALL WITH
SUCH CIGS OCCURRING OVER NE & EC KS THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH KCNU
WAS VFR AT 20/05Z (OVC036) CIGS OVER THIS TERMINAL HAVE DROPPED
500-600FT PER HOUR SINCE 20/01Z. PER THESE REASONS HAVE ASSIGNED
MVFR CIGS (2,800FT) AT KCNU RIGHT OUT OF THE STARTING BLOCKS. WILL
KEEP KCNU IN MVFR STATUS UNTIL ~20/17Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE
3,000FT (3,500FT TO BE MORE EXACT) AS STRONGEST WRAP-AROUND SHIFTS
SLOWLY E. A 2ND TERMINAL NOW REQUIRING CLOSER ATTENTION IS KSLN.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT KSLN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT SHORT-TERM
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING A 3-4HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
(2,500FT) FROM 20/14Z-20/18Z. SO STAY TUNED. THE REMAINING 3
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 27 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 53 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 50 27 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 49 26 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 57 26 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 57 27 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 53 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 53 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 39 24 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 39 24 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 39 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 39 23 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 201138
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
538 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. OVERNIGHT A
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND IS NOW
DIVING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THE ONLY AFFECT THIS FEATURE
HAD ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER WAS TO ALLOW A BAND OF MVFR CIGS TO PUSH
WEST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT KCNU THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KICT AND KSLN WILL
EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS THIS BAND OF
CLOUDS STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT WEST OF I-135.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-WED:
BROKEN RECORD OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFTS CONTINUE. BATCH OF CLOUDS
MAY BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
COULD MAKE TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY...AS CLOUDS/WINDS HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY CUT INTO WARM UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BREAK LATE. WINDS APPEAR TO DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT EFFECTS OF OTHERWISE GOOD
DOWNSLOPE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. CAUTIOUSLY
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF GOING FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
A LOT OF BUST POTENTIAL. ABOUT THE SAME STORY ON WED AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES EITHER STRUGGLE
OR SOAR IN THIS SETUP...WITH MUCH DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE DAY.
THU:
REMARKABLY LITTLE FLOW EVEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON THU. SIMILAR TO
TUE/WED...THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT MIXING AND WARM UP
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THAT TENDENCY IS TO UNDERFORECAST MAXES AHEAD OF
FRONTS...HAVE CONTINUED THE CURRENT WARM TREND...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KS WHERE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT DRY FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
FRI-SUN:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
SUN NIGHT-MON:
NORMALLY WOULD NOT MAKE CHANGES THIS FAR OUT ON MIDNIGHT SHIFT...BUT
0000 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL BOTH QUITE SIMILAR SHOWING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT UNFOLDING LATE SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON MON. THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL HAVE PUSHED VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER SOUTH...RANGING FROM THE 4TH RUN BACK WHICH
HAD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF ICT AT 0000 UTC TUE...TO NOW WELL
INTO TX WITH TONIGHTS RUN. BOTH 0000 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL
SUGGEST GOOD OVERRUNNING OF COLD DOME DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 0000
UTC TUE...WITH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHOWING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 10-20 AT THE SAME TIME. HAVE CUT MAXES SEVERAL
DEG BUT UNFORTUNATELY STILL IS WELL ABOVE WHAT IS ANTICIPATED. DAY
SHIFT WILL BE SLASHING TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE SINCE CHANGES THIS
PACKAGE WERE LIMITED BY CONSENSUS/POLICY ISSUES. ADDED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND ALTHOUGH GRIDS
CURRENTLY SHOW RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOUTHEAST KS...SUSPECT ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE FROZEN. -HOWERTON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS OF 2,500-3,000FT WILL SPREAD S ACROSS KCNU AFTERALL WITH
SUCH CIGS OCCURRING OVER NE & EC KS THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH KCNU
WAS VFR AT 20/05Z (OVC036) CIGS OVER THIS TERMINAL HAVE DROPPED
500-600FT PER HOUR SINCE 20/01Z. PER THESE REASONS HAVE ASSIGNED
MVFR CIGS (2,800FT) AT KCNU RIGHT OUT OF THE STARTING BLOCKS. WILL
KEEP KCNU IN MVFR STATUS UNTIL ~20/17Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE
3,000FT (3,500FT TO BE MORE EXACT) AS STRONGEST WRAP-AROUND SHIFTS
SLOWLY E. A 2ND TERMINAL NOW REQUIRING CLOSER ATTENTION IS KSLN.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT KSLN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT SHORT-TERM
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING A 3-4HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
(2,500FT) FROM 20/14Z-20/18Z. SO STAY TUNED. THE REMAINING 3
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 27 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 56 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 55 27 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 26 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 60 26 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 59 27 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 58 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 56 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 42 24 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 42 24 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 42 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 42 23 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 200924
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-WED:
BROKEN RECORD OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFTS CONTINUE. BATCH OF CLOUDS
MAY BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
COULD MAKE TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY...AS CLOUDS/WINDS HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY CUT INTO WARM UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BREAK LATE. WINDS APPEAR TO DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT EFFECTS OF OTHERWISE GOOD
DOWNSLOPE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. CAUTIOUSLY
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF GOING FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
A LOT OF BUST POTENTIAL. ABOUT THE SAME STORY ON WED AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES EITHER STRUGGLE
OR SOAR IN THIS SETUP...WITH MUCH DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE DAY.
THU:
REMARKABLY LITTLE FLOW EVEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON THU. SIMILAR TO
TUE/WED...THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT MIXING AND WARM UP
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THAT TENDENCY IS TO UNDERFORECAST MAXES AHEAD OF
FRONTS...HAVE CONTINUED THE CURRENT WARM TREND...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KS WHERE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT DRY FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
FRI-SUN:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
SUN NIGHT-MON:
NORMALLY WOULD NOT MAKE CHANGES THIS FAR OUT ON MIDNIGHT SHIFT...BUT
0000 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL BOTH QUITE SIMILAR SHOWING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT UNFOLDING LATE SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON MON. THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL HAVE PUSHED VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER SOUTH...RANGING FROM THE 4TH RUN BACK WHICH
HAD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF ICT AT 0000 UTC TUE...TO NOW WELL
INTO TX WITH TONIGHTS RUN. BOTH 0000 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL
SUGGEST GOOD OVERRUNNING OF COLD DOME DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 0000
UTC TUE...WITH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHOWING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 10-20 AT THE SAME TIME. HAVE CUT MAXES SEVERAL
DEG BUT UNFORTUNATELY STILL IS WELL ABOVE WHAT IS ANTICIPATED. DAY
SHIFT WILL BE SLASHING TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE SINCE CHANGES THIS
PACKAGE WERE LIMITED BY CONSENSUS/POLICY ISSUES. ADDED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND ALTHOUGH GRIDS
CURRENTLY SHOW RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOUTHEAST KS...SUSPECT ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE FROZEN. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS OF 2,500-3,000FT WILL SPREAD S ACROSS KCNU AFTERALL WITH
SUCH CIGS OCCURRING OVER NE & EC KS THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH KCNU
WAS VFR AT 20/05Z (OVC036) CIGS OVER THIS TERMINAL HAVE DROPPED
500-600FT PER HOUR SINCE 20/01Z. PER THESE REASONS HAVE ASSIGNED
MVFR CIGS (2,800FT) AT KCNU RIGHT OUT OF THE STARTING BLOCKS. WILL
KEEP KCNU IN MVFR STATUS UNTIL ~20/17Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE
3,000FT (3,500FT TO BE MORE EXACT) AS STRONGEST WRAP-AROUND SHIFTS
SLOWLY E. A 2ND TERMINAL NOW REQUIRING CLOSER ATTENTION IS KSLN.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT KSLN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT SHORT-TERM
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING A 3-4HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
(2,500FT) FROM 20/14Z-20/18Z. SO STAY TUNED. THE REMAINING 3
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 27 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 56 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 55 27 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 26 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 60 26 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 59 27 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 58 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 56 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 42 24 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 42 24 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 42 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 42 23 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 200552
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS OF 2,500-3,000FT WILL SPREAD S ACROSS KCNU AFTERALL WITH
SUCH CIGS OCCURRING OVER NE & EC KS THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH KCNU
WAS VFR AT 20/05Z (OVC036) CIGS OVER THIS TERMINAL HAVE DROPPED
500-600FT PER HOUR SINCE 20/01Z. PER THESE REASONS HAVE ASSIGNED
MVFR CIGS (2,800FT) AT KCNU RIGHT OUT OF THE STARTING BLOCKS. WILL
KEEP KCNU IN MVFR STATUS UNTIL ~20/17Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE
3,000FT (3,500FT TO BE MORE EXACT) AS STRONGEST WRAP-AROUND SHIFTS
SLOWLY E. A 2ND TERMINAL NOW REQUIRING CLOSER ATTENTION IS KSLN.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT KSLN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT SHORT-TERM
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING A 3-4HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (2,500FT)
FROM 20/14Z-20/18Z. SO STAY TUNED. THE REMAINING 3 TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
EXPECT NEARLY IDENTICAL FLYING WEATHER TO LAST NIGHT AS STRONG NLY
FLOW PREVAILS OVER CNTRL PLAINS. EXTREMELY DEEP TROFFING SITUATED
ALONG E COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE "WRAP-AROUND" STRATOCUMULUS
TO MIGRATE E OVER PRIMARILY ERN KS WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. KCNU WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SUCH RECURRENCE. NLY
WINDS OF 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO ~25KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS BRINGING WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN KANSAS IS STRUGGLING A BIT MORE TO WARM
UP.
CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMTH TO CENTRAL
KANSAS ON TUESDAY WHILE SOUTHEAST KANSAS STRUGGLES TO GET INTO THE
LOWER 40S. SOUNDINGS REALLY BECOME QUITE DRY BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER. WITH SOILS
BEING FAIRLY DRY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECASTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM...DRY DAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT BEING
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY FLURRIES OR OTHER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY
DRY...AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE COMING TO THIS CONCLUSION AS WELL...WE
HAVE REMOVED THE FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ENOUGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT WE GENERALLY WENT
WITH HPC GUIDANCE.
SCHRECK
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NW SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMP PROFILE
BECOMING DRY ADIABATIC AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY OVER
CEN KS. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LAYER INCREASING WILL LEAD TO
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CENTRAL
KS SEEING THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35KTS
NEAR KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT. FURTHER EAST SITES WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 25-30KTS.
ALSO A PESKY AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CEN AND SOUTHEAST KS AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. THIS AREA OF STRATO-CU WILL MAINLY EFFECT THE KICT AND
KCNU TAF SITES...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS UNTIL AROUND
22Z/MON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS
TONIGHT...SO WILL DECREASE CEILINGS SOME INTO TUES BY 12Z.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 30 53 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 28 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 27 51 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 27 49 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 50 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 24 62 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 26 61 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 29 57 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 28 55 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 45 26 57 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 192358
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
EXPECT NEARLY IDENTICAL FLYING WEATHER TO LAST NIGHT AS STRONG NLY
FLOW PREVAILS OVER CNTRL PLAINS. EXTREMELY DEEP TROFFING SITUATED
ALONG E COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE "WRAP-AROUND" STRATOCUMULUS
TO MIGRATE E OVER PRIMARILY ERN KS WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. KCNU WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SUCH RECURRENCE. NLY
WINDS OF 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO ~25KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS BRINGING WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN KANSAS IS STRUGGLING A BIT MORE TO WARM
UP.
CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMTH TO CENTRAL
KANSAS ON TUESDAY WHILE SOUTHEAST KANSAS STRUGGLES TO GET INTO THE
LOWER 40S. SOUNDINGS REALLY BECOME QUITE DRY BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER. WITH SOILS
BEING FAIRLY DRY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECASTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM...DRY DAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT BEING
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY FLURRIES OR OTHER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY
DRY...AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE COMING TO THIS CONCLUSION AS WELL...WE
HAVE REMOVED THE FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ENOUGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT WE GENERALLY WENT
WITH HPC GUIDANCE.
SCHRECK
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NW SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMP PROFILE
BECOMING DRY ADIABATIC AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY OVER
CEN KS. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LAYER INCREASING WILL LEAD TO
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CENTRAL
KS SEEING THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35KTS
NEAR KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT. FURTHER EAST SITES WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 25-30KTS.
ALSO A PESKY AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CEN AND SOUTHEAST KS AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. THIS AREA OF STRATO-CU WILL MAINLY EFFECT THE KICT AND
KCNU TAF SITES...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS UNTIL AROUND
22Z/MON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS
TONIGHT...SO WILL DECREASE CEILINGS SOME INTO TUES BY 12Z.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 30 53 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 28 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 27 51 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 27 49 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 50 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 24 62 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 26 61 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 29 57 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 28 55 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 45 26 57 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 192100
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS BRINGING WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN KANSAS WHILE EASTERN KANSAS IS STRUGGLING A BIT MORE TO WARM
UP.
CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMTH TO CENTRAL
KANSAS ON TUESDAY WHILE SOUTHEAST KANSAS STRUGGLES TO GET INTO THE
LOWER 40S. SOUNDINGS REALLY BECOME QUITE DRY BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER. WITH SOILS
BEING FAIRLY DRY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECASTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM...DRY DAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT BEING
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY FLURRIES OR OTHER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY
DRY...AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE COMING TO THIS CONCLUSION AS WELL...WE
HAVE REMOVED THE FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ENOUGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT WE GENERALLY WENT
WITH HPC GUIDANCE.
SCHRECK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NW SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMP PROFILE
BECOMING DRY ADIABATIC AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY OVER
CEN KS. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LAYER INCREASING WILL LEAD TO
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CENTRAL
KS SEEING THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35KTS
NEAR KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT. FURTHER EAST SITES WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 25-30KTS.
ALSO A PESKY AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CEN AND SOUTHEAST KS AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. THIS AREA OF STRATO-CU WILL MAINLY EFFECT THE KICT AND
KCNU TAF SITES...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS UNTIL AROUND
22Z/MON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS
TONIGHT...SO WILL DECREASE CEILINGS SOME INTO TUES BY 12Z.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 30 53 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 28 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 27 51 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 27 49 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 50 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 24 62 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 26 61 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 29 57 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 28 55 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 45 26 57 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 25 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 191734
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1134 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
TEMPS ARE OFF TO A SLOW START THIS MORNING AS INVERSION APPEARS TO
BE A BIT DEEPER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DO EXPECT INVERSION TO MIX
OUT AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES...WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE CONDITIONS
LEADING TO A NICE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID WARMUP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT ADJUST TEMPS FOR
NOW...AS WINDS ACROSS NW KS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT.
AS TEMP PROFILE GOES DRY ADIABATIC...EXPECT GUSTY 850H WINDS TO BE
TRANSLATED TOWARDS THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CEN
KS WHERE MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST.
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR CEN KS SUGGEST GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH...JUST BUMPING UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AND BE READY TO PULL THE TRIGGER IF WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED.
KETCHAM
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NW SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMP PROFILE
BECOMING DRY ADIABATIC AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY OVER
CEN KS. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LAYER INCREASING WILL LEAD TO
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CENTRAL
KS SEEING THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35KTS
NEAR KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT. FURTHER EAST SITES WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 25-30KTS.
ALSO A PESKY AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CEN AND SOUTHEAST KS AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. THIS AREA OF STRATO-CU WILL MAINLY EFFECT THE KICT AND
KCNU TAF SITES...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS UNTIL AROUND
22Z/MON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS
TONIGHT...SO WILL DECREASE CEILINGS SOME INTO TUES BY 12Z.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PLACES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS WITH ANOTHER
ONE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS MN. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTH DIVES INTO INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS THE EVENING HOURS
APPROACH. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRSL WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING FURTHER EAST.
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KS.
THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE IFR LEVELS.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
LOW CLOUDS ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD IMPACT
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WERE OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
THIS MORNING. DEPENDING ON EXACT LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WENT CLOSER TO MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
THERE...BUT WENT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ELSEWHERE BASED ON TRENDS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NO BIG CHANGES TO SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
TUE-WED:
DESPITE TRANQUIL WEATHER...RATHER DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER PATTERN SHOWING A VERY SLOW
TRANSITION MORE ZONAL FLOW. COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PLAY HAVOC WITH SURFACE WINDS AND CRITICAL UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WED IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED
TO BE EXTREMELY DRY...WITH TEENS/SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FROM 850MB-700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. WITH DEEP
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY SOAR. RECORD HIGH ON WED AT KRSL /65/ IS IN JEOPARDY. THIS
RECORD IS SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO BOTH SURROUNDING
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT DATES.
THU-FRI:
BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL NOW ADVERTISING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THU...LEADING TO DRY AIR/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT ON
THU. WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES ON THU A BIT...BUT VALUES COULD
POTENTIALLY RIVAL THOSE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR WED BARRING
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF FLUX IN
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRI. CURRENTLY...THE 925 MILLIBAR MIXDOWN
TEMPERATURES FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
THE MIDDLE 50S...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIATION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD AND
CALENDAR...COOLER EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL WOULD BE FAVORED. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FRIDAY
AND WILL LET DAYSHIFT FINE TUNE BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU PRIMARY CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED MVFR STRATOCU 2,500-3,000 FT SPREADING S
FROM ERN NEBRASKA & IA TOWARD NE KS. FOG CHANNEL DEPICTS GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH CIGS EXISTS ACROSS ERN 1/3 OF KS. THEREFORE
POSSESS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS ~2,500 FT WILL ARRIVE
OVER KCNU 19/09Z-19/11Z. VFR CIGS OF 10,000-12,000 FT ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS DUE WWD DISPLACEMENT FROM
925-850MB WRAP-AROUND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 30 54 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 28 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 27 53 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 27 51 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 52 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 24 61 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 26 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 29 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 28 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 47 26 57 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 25 47 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 25 47 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 25 47 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 191141
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PLACES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS WITH ANOTHER
ONE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS MN. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTH DIVES INTO INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS THE EVENING HOURS
APPROACH. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRSL WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING FURTHER EAST.
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KS.
THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE IFR LEVELS.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
LOW CLOUDS ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD IMPACT
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WERE OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
THIS MORNING. DEPENDING ON EXACT LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WENT CLOSER TO MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
THERE...BUT WENT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ELSEWHERE BASED ON TRENDS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NO BIG CHANGES TO SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
TUE-WED:
DESPITE TRANQUIL WEATHER...RATHER DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER PATTERN SHOWING A VERY SLOW
TRANSITION MORE ZONAL FLOW. COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PLAY HAVOC WITH SURFACE WINDS AND CRITICAL UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WED IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED
TO BE EXTREMELY DRY...WITH TEENS/SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FROM 850MB-700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. WITH DEEP
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY SOAR. RECORD HIGH ON WED AT KRSL /65/ IS IN JEOPARDY. THIS
RECORD IS SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO BOTH SURROUNDING
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT DATES.
THU-FRI:
BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL NOW ADVERTISING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THU...LEADING TO DRY AIR/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT ON
THU. WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES ON THU A BIT...BUT VALUES COULD
POTENTIALLY RIVAL THOSE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR WED BARRING
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF FLUX IN
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRI. CURRENTLY...THE 925 MILLIBAR MIXDOWN
TEMPERATURES FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
THE MIDDLE 50S...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIATION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD AND
CALENDAR...COOLER EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL WOULD BE FAVORED. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FRIDAY
AND WILL LET DAYSHIFT FINE TUNE BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU PRIMARY CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED MVFR STRATOCU 2,500-3,000 FT SPREADING S
FROM ERN NEBRASKA & IA TOWARD NE KS. FOG CHANNEL DEPICTS GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH CIGS EXISTS ACROSS ERN 1/3 OF KS. THEREFORE
POSSESS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS ~2,500 FT WILL ARRIVE
OVER KCNU 19/09Z-19/11Z. VFR CIGS OF 10,000-12,000 FT ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS DUE WWD DISPLACEMENT FROM
925-850MB WRAP-AROUND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 30 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 56 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 27 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 53 27 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 28 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 24 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 26 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 54 29 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 47 27 47 26 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 42 25 47 25 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 41 25 47 25 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 44 25 47 25 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190909
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
LOW CLOUDS ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD IMPACT
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WERE OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
THIS MORNING. DEPENDING ON EXACT LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WENT CLOSER TO MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
THERE...BUT WENT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ELSEWHERE BASED ON TRENDS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NO BIG CHANGES TO SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
TUE-WED:
DESPITE TRANQUIL WEATHER...RATHER DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER PATTERN SHOWING A VERY SLOW
TRANSITION MORE ZONAL FLOW. COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PLAY HAVOC WITH SURFACE WINDS AND CRITICAL UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WED IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED
TO BE EXTREMELY DRY...WITH TEENS/SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FROM 850MB-700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. WITH DEEP
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY SOAR. RECORD HIGH ON WED AT KRSL /65/ IS IN JEOPARDY. THIS
RECORD IS SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO BOTH SURROUNDING
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT DATES.
THU-FRI:
BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL NOW ADVERTISING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THU...LEADING TO DRY AIR/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT ON
THU. WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES ON THU A BIT...BUT VALUES COULD
POTENTIALLY RIVAL THOSE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR WED BARRING
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF FLUX IN
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRI. CURRENTLY...THE 925 MILLIBAR MIXDOWN
TEMPERATURES FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
THE MIDDLE 50S...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIATION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD AND
CALENDAR...COOLER EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL WOULD BE FAVORED. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FRIDAY
AND WILL LET DAYSHIFT FINE TUNE BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU PRIMARY CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED MVFR STRATOCU 2,500-3,000 FT SPREADING S
FROM ERN NEBRASKA & IA TOWARD NE KS. FOG CHANNEL DEPICTS GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH CIGS EXISTS ACROSS ERN 1/3 OF KS. THEREFORE
POSSESS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS ~2,500 FT WILL ARRIVE
OVER KCNU 19/09Z-19/11Z. VFR CIGS OF 10,000-12,000 FT ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS DUE WWD DISPLACEMENT FROM
925-850MB WRAP-AROUND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 30 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 56 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 27 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 53 27 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 28 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 24 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 26 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 54 29 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 47 27 47 26 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 42 25 47 25 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 41 25 47 25 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 44 25 47 25 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190357
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
957 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...
INCREASING NW WINDS TO 15-20MPH ARE PLAYING GAMES WITH TEMPS THIS
EVENING IN CNTRL & SC KS. IN SOME CASES...5-8F RISES HAVE OCCURRED
ALONG & W OF I-135. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS TWICE THIS EVENING & WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS & LOOKING AT TEMPS UPSTREAM IN NW
KS & NEBRASKA FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED. TONIGHT`S
LOWS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO ~35F WITH AREAS W OF I-135 ON WARMER SIDE
OF THRESHOLD. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS & N/NW WINDS TO 15-20
MPH IN MOST AREAS.
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED MVFR STRATOCU 2,500-3,000
FT SPREADING S FROM ERN NEBRASKA & IA TOWARD NE KS. FOG CHANNEL
DEPICTS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH CIGS EXISTS ACROSS ERN 1/3 OF
KS. THEREFORE POSSESS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS ~2,500
FT WILL ARRIVE OVER KCNU 19/09Z-19/11Z. VFR CIGS OF 10,000-12,000
FT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS DUE WWD
DISPLACEMENT FROM 925-850MB WRAP-AROUND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRIMARY CONCERN IS ON MVFR STRATOCU POTENTIAL (~2,500FT) THAT MAY
SPREAD S ACROSS ERN KS LATE TONIGHT (08-10Z). FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
KCNU IN VFR CATEGORY ASSIGNING SCT025 EFFECTIVE 19/08Z...BUT THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NW
FLOW PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 25-30KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A
BROAD AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AND STOUT RIDGE OVER THE EASTER PACIFIC AND WEST COAST. THIS
LEAVES THE CENTRAL PART OF COUNTRY IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR
NEAR DAILY WIND SHIFTS AND/OR COLD FRONTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WITH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS
KEEPING THINGS MILD DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES IN
THE EXTENDED.
MONDAY - TUESDAY:
A STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BACK END OF THIS FEATURE
TRAILING INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THE GFS WANTS TO SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THAT PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE AT PREMIUM BASED ON 12Z UA ANALYSIS
FROM NEARBY SITES AS WELL AS UPSTREAM SITES. OPTED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS PERSIST. COLDER AIR
ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD LIMIT THEIR WARM UP SO HIGHS IN
MID TO UPPER 40S LOOK MORE REASONABLE COMPARED TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN
OUR WEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. ALSO WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DOWNRIGHT BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S IN OUR WEST WILL TAPER
TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED... THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FORM MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY BY THE WEEKEND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THIS MINOR
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS
VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN COMPARISON. IF THE GFS IS TO BE
BELIEVED... FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE SNOW WITH ALL AREAS AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW ADDED A FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE
GFS. TRENDED COOLER ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. COULD SEE ADDING HIGHER
POPS FOR SNOW IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND. BUT FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
CDB
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS NW FLOW LEADS TO
GOOD MIXING AS LOW LEVELS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AFTER THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE ENOUGH
FOR A DECK OF STRATO-CU TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH THE KRSL AND KHUT TAFS BUT ENOUGH TO GO BROKEN. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE
SATURATION WILL BE THE BEST...NEAR KCNU.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 36 53 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 36 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 36 52 26 54 / 0 0 10 0
ELDORADO 35 50 26 52 / 0 0 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 35 52 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 37 57 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 37 58 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 36 54 25 57 / 0 0 10 0
MCPHERSON 36 54 27 59 / 0 0 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 33 45 24 48 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 33 44 23 48 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 33 44 24 49 / 0 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 33 45 23 48 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 182357
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRIMARY CONCERN IS ON MVFR STRATOCU POTENTIAL (~2,500FT) THAT MAY
SPREAD S ACROSS ERN KS LATE TONIGHT (08-10Z). FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
KCNU IN VFR CATEGORY ASSIGNING SCT025 EFFECTIVE 19/08Z...BUT THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NW
FLOW PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 25-30KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A
BROAD AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AND STOUT RIDGE OVER THE EASTER PACIFIC AND WEST COAST. THIS
LEAVES THE CENTRAL PART OF COUNTRY IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR
NEAR DAILY WIND SHIFTS AND/OR COLD FRONTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WITH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS
KEEPING THINGS MILD DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES IN
THE EXTENDED.
MONDAY - TUESDAY:
A STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BACK END OF THIS FEATURE
TRAILING INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THE GFS WANTS TO SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THAT PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE AT PREMIUM BASED ON 12Z UA ANALYSIS
FROM NEARBY SITES AS WELL AS UPSTREAM SITES. OPTED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS PERSIST. COLDER AIR
ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD LIMIT THEIR WARM UP SO HIGHS IN
MID TO UPPER 40S LOOK MORE REASONABLE COMPARED TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN
OUR WEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. ALSO WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DOWNRIGHT BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S IN OUR WEST WILL TAPER
TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED... THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FORM MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY BY THE WEEKEND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THIS MINOR
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS
VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN COMPARISON. IF THE GFS IS TO BE
BELIEVED... FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE SNOW WITH ALL AREAS AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW ADDED A FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE
GFS. TRENDED COOLER ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. COULD SEE ADDING HIGHER
POPS FOR SNOW IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND. BUT FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
CDB
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS NW FLOW LEADS TO
GOOD MIXING AS LOW LEVELS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AFTER THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE ENOUGH
FOR A DECK OF STRATO-CU TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH THE KRSL AND KHUT TAFS BUT ENOUGH TO GO BROKEN. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE
SATURATION WILL BE THE BEST...NEAR KCNU.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 30 53 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 30 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 30 52 26 54 / 0 0 10 0
ELDORADO 29 50 26 52 / 0 0 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 29 52 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 57 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 30 58 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 29 54 25 57 / 0 0 10 0
MCPHERSON 30 54 27 59 / 0 0 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 45 24 48 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 27 44 23 48 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 27 44 24 49 / 0 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 27 45 23 48 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 182032
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A
BROAD AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AND STOUT RIDGE OVER THE EASTER PACIFIC AND WEST COAST. THIS
LEAVES THE CENTRAL PART OF COUNTRY IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR
NEAR DAILY WIND SHIFTS AND/OR COLD FRONTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WITH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS
KEEPING THINGS MILD DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES IN
THE EXTENDED.
MONDAY - TUESDAY:
A STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BACK END OF THIS FEATURE
TRAILING INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THE GFS WANTS TO SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THAT PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE AT PREMIUM BASED ON 12Z UA ANALYSIS
FROM NEARBY SITES AS WELL AS UPSTREAM SITES. OPTED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS PERSIST. COLDER AIR
ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD LIMIT THEIR WARM UP SO HIGHS IN
MID TO UPPER 40S LOOK MORE REASONABLE COMPARED TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN
OUR WEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. ALSO WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DOWNRIGHT BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S IN OUR WEST WILL TAPER
TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED... THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FORM MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY BY THE WEEKEND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THIS MINOR
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS
VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN COMPARISON. IF THE GFS IS TO BE
BELIEVED... FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE SNOW WITH ALL AREAS AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW ADDED A FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE
GFS. TRENDED COOLER ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. COULD SEE ADDING HIGHER
POPS FOR SNOW IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND. BUT FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS NW FLOW LEADS TO
GOOD MIXING AS LOW LEVELS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AFTER THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE ENOUGH
FOR A DECK OF STRATO-CU TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH THE KRSL AND KHUT TAFS BUT ENOUGH TO GO BROKEN. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE
SATURATION WILL BE THE BEST...NEAR KCNU.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 30 53 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 30 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 30 52 26 54 / 0 0 10 0
ELDORADO 29 50 26 52 / 0 0 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 29 52 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 57 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 30 58 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 29 54 25 57 / 0 0 10 0
MCPHERSON 30 54 27 59 / 0 0 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 45 24 48 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 27 44 23 48 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 27 44 24 49 / 0 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 27 45 23 48 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181225 CCA
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO MIXING. DRY
AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW CLOUDS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
CIRRUS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/NORTH AMERICAN
MODEL HINTING THAT SOME VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AFTER 0600 UTC...BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS.
SYNOPSIS:
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES SLIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ONE OF THESE PIECES OF ENERGY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MO/WESTERN IA. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MIXING UP TO AROUND 850MB TODAY.
MIXING DOWN FROM THIS LEVEL WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
WEST OF I-135 AND LOW 50S OVER SE KS. SOME CIRRUS WILL SPILL DOWN
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT THE
WARM-UP. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MON-TUE:
WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
THESE TWO DAYS...A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER IA AND MO ON MON NIGHT. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KS
FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT COMPARED TO THE NAM. THIS IS SURPRISING
CONSIDERING THE UPPER FEATURES FROM BOTH MODELS AGREE VERY WELL. IN
ADDITION THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET. THEREFORE
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR TUE.
WED-SAT:
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS. BY 00Z THU BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ACT TO BREAKDOWN THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO IT APPEARS THAT WED HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING
THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60. BEYOND THE WED TIME FRAME SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE UPPER ENERGY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THU-THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS MOST OF
THE ENERGY BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE.
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL...WOULD NOT
DISCOUNT THE ECMWF BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION
THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLDER TEMP TREND LOOKS GOOD FOR FRI-SAT.
LAWSON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STIFF NW WINDS THAT`LL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
18/00Z TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
VELOCITIES JUST OFF THE DECK WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING MARKEDLY TO ~50KTS WITHIN 5,000FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING
OVER CNTRL & SC KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED NW WINDS ALL TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY KRSL & KSLN WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS 22KTS/25MPH & GUSTS
OF 30KTS/35MPH ARE LIKELY) SUN MORNING. NW WINDS WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH EARLY SUN EVENING.
WICHITA-KICT 59 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 59 32 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 57 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 57 32 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 57 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 58 32 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 29 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 51 26 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 28 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 59 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 59 32 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 57 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 57 32 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 57 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 58 32 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 29 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 27 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 51 26 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 28 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181142
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO MIXING. DRY
AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW CLOUDS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
CIRRUS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/NORTH AMERICAN
MODEL HINTING THAT SOME VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AFTER 0600 UTC...BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS.
SYNOPSIS:
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES SLIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ONE OF THESE PIECES OF ENERGY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MO/WESTERN IA. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MIXING UP TO AROUND 850MB TODAY.
MIXING DOWN FROM THIS LEVEL WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
WEST OF I-135 AND LOW 50S OVER SE KS. SOME CIRRUS WILL SPILL DOWN
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT THE
WARM-UP. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MON-TUE:
WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
THESE TWO DAYS...A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER IA AND MO ON MON NIGHT. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KS
FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT COMPARED TO THE NAM. THIS IS SURPRISING
CONSIDERING THE UPPER FEATURES FROM BOTH MODELS AGREE VERY WELL. IN
ADDITION THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET. THEREFORE
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR TUE.
WED-SAT:
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS. BY 00Z THU BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ACT TO BREAKDOWN THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO IT APPEARS THAT WED HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING
THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60. BEYOND THE WED TIME FRAME SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE UPPER ENERGY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THU-THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS MOST OF
THE ENERGY BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE.
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL...WOULD NOT
DISCOUNT THE ECMWF BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION
THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLDER TEMP TREND LOOKS GOOD FOR FRI-SAT.
LAWSON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STIFF NW WINDS THAT`LL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
18/00Z TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
VELOCITIES JUST OFF THE DECK WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING MARKEDLY TO ~50KTS WITHIN 5,000FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING
OVER CNTRL & SC KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED NW WINDS ALL TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY KRSL & KSLN WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS 22KTS/25MPH & GUSTS
OF 30KTS/35MPH ARE LIKELY) SUN MORNING. NW WINDS WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH EARLY SUN EVENING.
WICHITA-KICT 59 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 59 32 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 57 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 57 32 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 57 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 58 32 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 29 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 51 26 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 28 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 59 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 59 32 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 57 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 57 32 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 57 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 58 32 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 29 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 27 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 51 26 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 28 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 180916
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS.
SYNOPSIS:
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES SLIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ONE OF THESE PIECES OF ENERGY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MO/WESTERN IA. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MIXING UP TO AROUND 850MB TODAY.
MIXING DOWN FROM THIS LEVEL WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
WEST OF I-135 AND LOW 50S OVER SE KS. SOME CIRRUS WILL SPILL DOWN
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT THE
WARM-UP. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MON-TUE:
WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
THESE TWO DAYS...A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER IA AND MO ON MON NIGHT. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KS
FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT COMPARED TO THE NAM. THIS IS SURPRISING
CONSIDERING THE UPPER FEATURES FROM BOTH MODELS AGREE VERY WELL. IN
ADDITION THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET. THEREFORE
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR TUE.
WED-SAT:
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS. BY 00Z THU BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ACT TO BREAKDOWN THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO IT APPEARS THAT WED HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING
THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60. BEYOND THE WED TIME FRAME SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE UPPER ENERGY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THU-THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS MOST OF
THE ENERGY BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE.
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL...WOULD NOT
DISCOUNT THE ECMWF BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION
THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT.
THEREFORE THE COLDER TEMP TREND LOOKS GOOD FOR FRI-SAT.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STIFF NW WINDS THAT`LL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
18/00Z TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
VELOCITIES JUST OFF THE DECK WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING MARKEDLY TO ~50KTS WITHIN 5,000FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING
OVER CNTRL & SC KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED NW WINDS ALL TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY KRSL & KSLN WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS 22KTS/25MPH & GUSTS
OF 30KTS/35MPH ARE LIKELY) SUN MORNING. NW WINDS WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH EARLY SUN EVENING.
&&
WICHITA-KICT 59 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 59 32 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 57 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 57 32 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 57 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 58 32 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 29 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 51 26 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 28 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 180535
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STIFF NW WINDS THAT`LL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
18/00Z TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
VELOCITIES JUST OFF THE DECK WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING MARKEDLY TO ~50KTS WITHIN 5,000FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING
OVER CNTRL & SC KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED NW WINDS ALL TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY KRSL & KSLN WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS 22KTS/25MPH & GUSTS
OF 30KTS/35MPH ARE LIKELY) SUN MORNING. NW WINDS WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH EARLY SUN EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STIFF NW WINDS THAT`LL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
18/00Z TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
VELOCITIES JUST OFF THE DECK WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING MARKEDLY TO ~50KTS WITHIN 5,000FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING
OVER CNTRL & SC KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED NW WINDS ALL TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY KRSL & KSLN WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS 22KTS/25MPH & GUSTS
OF 30KTS/35MPH ARE LIKELY SUN MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS GLANCE
BLOWS OF COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUN-TUE
THE AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN GLANCING BLOWS
OF COLDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND A BIGGER FLUCTUATION OF
TEMPERATURES FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY THIS PERIOD AS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF COLDER
AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE WARM DAY SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS PREMIUM DOWN SLOPE FLOW EFFECTS MATERIALIZE
VIA WESTERLY WINDS.
EXTENDED: WED-SAT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WE COULD GET ONE MORE WARMER THAN CLIMO DAY FOR
THURSDAY WITH MODEL TRENDS SLOWING DOWN THE ADVANCE OF COLDER
AIR...HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES LATER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...BUT
SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
JAKUB
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONLY ISSUE IS TIMING OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR KCNU AS OTHER
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NW. ONLY SOME CIRRUS AND NO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 29 53 25 47 / 0 0 10 0
HUTCHINSON 28 54 24 49 / 0 0 10 0
NEWTON 27 51 24 46 / 0 0 10 0
ELDORADO 27 49 24 45 / 0 0 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 50 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 28 56 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 28 57 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 27 52 23 48 / 0 0 10 0
MCPHERSON 27 53 24 48 / 0 0 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 47 22 42 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 26 46 21 40 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 25 45 21 39 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 26 47 21 41 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 172350
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STIFF NW WINDS THAT`LL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
18/00Z TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
VELOCITIES JUST OFF THE DECK WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING MARKEDLY TO ~50KTS WITHIN 5,000FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING
OVER CNTRL & SC KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED NW WINDS ALL TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY KRSL & KSLN WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS 22KTS/25MPH & GUSTS
OF 30KTS/35MPH ARE LIKELY SUN MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS GLANCE
BLOWS OF COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUN-TUE
THE AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN GLANCING BLOWS
OF COLDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND A BIGGER FLUCTUATION OF
TEMPERATURES FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY THIS PERIOD AS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF COLDER
AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE WARM DAY SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS PREMIUM DOWN SLOPE FLOW EFFECTS MATERIALIZE
VIA WESTERLY WINDS.
EXTENDED: WED-SAT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WE COULD GET ONE MORE WARMER THAN CLIMO DAY FOR
THURSDAY WITH MODEL TRENDS SLOWING DOWN THE ADVANCE OF COLDER
AIR...HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES LATER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...BUT
SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
JAKUB
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONLY ISSUE IS TIMING OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR KCNU AS OTHER
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NW. ONLY SOME CIRRUS AND NO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 29 53 25 47 / 0 0 10 0
HUTCHINSON 28 54 24 49 / 0 0 10 0
NEWTON 27 51 24 46 / 0 0 10 0
ELDORADO 27 49 24 45 / 0 0 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 50 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 28 56 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 28 57 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 27 52 23 48 / 0 0 10 0
MCPHERSON 27 53 24 48 / 0 0 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 47 22 42 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 26 46 21 40 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 25 45 21 39 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 26 47 21 41 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 172108
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS GLANCE
BLOWS OF COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUN-TUE
THE AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN GLANCING BLOWS
OF COLDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND A BIGGER FLUCTUATION OF
TEMPERATURES FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY THIS PERIOD AS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF COLDER
AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE WARM DAY SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS PREMIUM DOWN SLOPE FLOW EFFECTS MATERIALIZE
VIA WESTERLY WINDS.
EXTENDED: WED-SAT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WE COULD GET ONE MORE WARMER THAN CLIMO DAY FOR
THURSDAY WITH MODEL TRENDS SLOWING DOWN THE ADVANCE OF COLDER
AIR...HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES LATER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...BUT
SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
JAKUB
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONLY ISSUE IS TIMING OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR KCNU AS OTHER
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NW. ONLY SOME CIRRUS AND NO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 29 53 25 47 / 0 0 10 0
HUTCHINSON 28 54 24 49 / 0 0 10 0
NEWTON 27 51 24 46 / 0 0 10 0
ELDORADO 27 49 24 45 / 0 0 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 50 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 28 56 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 28 57 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 27 52 23 48 / 0 0 10 0
MCPHERSON 27 53 24 48 / 0 0 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 27 47 22 42 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 26 46 21 40 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 25 45 21 39 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 26 47 21 41 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
| 
