000
FXUS61 KGYX 201529
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1029 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH WARMER
AIR MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR, SATELLITE AND SFC REPORTS WILL UPDATE TO
ADJUST POP DOWN ACROSS N/MT ZONES AND INCREASE A BIT OVER SRN
ZONES. NO HIGHER THAN SLGT CHC FOR TDA. WILL ALSO ADJUST SKY
COVER. OTRW ANY CHANGES VERY MINOR.
CLOUDS MOST PERSISTENT OVER SRN AND COASTAL AREAS WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ACROSS MORE NRN AND MT ZONES. OFFSHORE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LGT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE WATERS AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NH AND SRN ME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTHWARD...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SEEMS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A NE FLOW IN
THE GULF CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SE NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT ISLES
OF SHOALS WILL COME IN MORE NNE...KEEPING -SHSN EAST...SO WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS. DRYING OVERNIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. FOR LACK OF A BETTER STARTING
POINT...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR LOWS. DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN SKY COVER FORECAST...WITH AGAIN VARIABLE CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS
MOS LEANS TOWARDS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLEARING...BUT MORE OR LESS
TIME OF CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB +PNA PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN OR AT LEAST BECOMES MUCH FLATTER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH A BIT OF NW SKEW.
NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SOME CAA ON
WED...SO TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH THE THREAT OF
UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS...BUT AS 500 MB FLOW FLATTENS
OUT...LOOKS LIKE SOME SFC RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON THU...WITH SOME
MID-LVL WARMING...AND COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRI IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK 500MB WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST N OF THE CWA...SO ANY THREAT FOR SHSN SHOULD
STAY IN THE MTS...BUT WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS...AS EURO INDICATES
A SLIGHTLY SWD TREND TO TRACK. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH CIG
VARIABLE VFR TO MVFR AROUND FA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONT THRU THE
DAY. TREND SHOULD BE FOR CIG TO IMPROVE WITH TIME THRU THE SHORT
TERM.
LONG TERM...NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR SEAS
FOR THE OUTER WATERS THRU 8 PM THIS EVENING. WILL BUMP UP SEAS
FCST FOR REST OF TDA A BIT BASED ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS. SEAS
COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE BAYS BUT WILL OPT NOT TO PUT UP AN SCA
THERE. SEAS SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATER TDA BUT SHOULD EASE UP
TNGT.
LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE ON THE WATERS
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK...BEFORE NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVE
IN LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...REQUIRING SCA OR GALES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 201353
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH WARMER
AIR MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND EXTRAPOLATE TO THE
FCST FOR LATER TDA. WILL ADJUST POP TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THIS TIME /PER LATEST RADAR
LOOP AND SFC REPORTS/. THIS INCLUDES MTS AND FOOTHILLS DOWN TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SE NH AND OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTRW
ANY CHANGES VERY MINOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS CLOUD LAYERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUM LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...EVEN SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING
DOWN WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...OTHER THAN BUYING OFF ON
A NAM12/GMOS BLEND...WHICH CAPTURES THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT WAS
GOING ON AT 06Z. THIS PUTS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES/FOG IN CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE...HOWEVER COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE OF THIS. MOST
CONSISTENT CLOUDS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE...WITH THIS AREA WELL
HANDLED BY THE NAM12.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT TO SEA IS
CAUSING SNOW TO THE EAST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MAKING IT
INTO RKD OR PSM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROF IS CAUSING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN BOTH CASES...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...WITH SNOW MORE OF THE FLURRY VARIETY.
EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT TODAY...ALLOWING
SOME SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS. GO COOLER THAN NAM/GFS
MOS BLEND (NAM HAS HAD A WARM BIAS THE PAST FEW DAYS).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTHWARD...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SEEMS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A NE FLOW IN
THE GULF CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SE NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT ISLES
OF SHOALS WILL COME IN MORE NNE...KEEPING -SHSN EAST...SO WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS. DRYING OVERNIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. FOR LACK OF A BETTER STARTING
POINT...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR LOWS. DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN SKY COVER FORECAST...WITH AGAIN VARIABLE CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS
MOS LEANS TOWARDS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLEARING...BUT MORE OR LESS
TIME OF CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB +PNA PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN OR AT LEAST BECOMES MUCH FLATTER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH A BIT OF NW SKEW.
NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SOME CAA ON
WED...SO TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH THE THREAT OF
UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS...BUT AS 500 MB FLOW FLATTENS
OUT...LOOKS LIKE SOME SFC RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON THU...WITH SOME
MID-LVL WARMING...AND COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRI IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK 500MB WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST N OF THE CWA...SO ANY THREAT FOR SHSN SHOULD
STAY IN THE MTS...BUT WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS...AS EURO INDICATES
A SLIGHTLY SWD TREND TO TRACK. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH CIG
VARIABLE VFR TO MVFR AROUND FA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONT THRU THE
DAY. TREND SHOULD BE FOR CIG TO IMPROVE WITH TIME THRU THE SHORT
TERM.
LONG TERM...NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR SEAS
FOR THE OUTER WATERS THRU 8 PM THIS EVENING. WILL BUMP UP SEAS
FCST FOR REST OF TDA A BIT BASED ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS. SEAS
COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE BAYS BUT WILL OPT NOT TO PUT UP AN SCA
THERE. SEAS SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATER TDA BUT SHOULD EASE UP
TNGT.
LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE ON THE WATERS
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK...BEFORE NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVE
IN LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...REQUIRING SCA OR GALES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 200737
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
237 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NUMEROUS CLOUD LAYERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUM LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...EVEN SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING
DOWN WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...OTHER THAN BUYING OFF ON
A NAM12/GMOS BLEND...WHICH CAPTURES THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT WAS
GOING ON AT 06Z. THIS PUTS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES/FOG IN CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE...HOWEVER COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE OF THIS. MOST
CONSISTENT CLOUDS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE...WITH THIS AREA WELL
HANDLED BY THE NAM12.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT TO SEA IS
CAUSING SNOW TO THE EAST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MAKING IT
INTO RKD OR PSM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROF IS CAUSING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN BOTH CASES...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...WITH SNOW MORE OF THE FLURRY VARIETY.
EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT TODAY...ALLOWING
SOME SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS. GO COOLER THAN NAM/GFS
MOS BLEND (NAM HAS HAD A WARM BIAS THE PAST FEW DAYS).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTHWARD...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SEEMS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A NE FLOW IN
THE GULF CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SE NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT ISLES
OF SHOALS WILL COME IN MORE NNE...KEEPING -SHSN EAST...SO WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS. DRYING OVERNIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. FOR LACK OF A BETTER STARTING
POINT...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR LOWS. DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN SKY COVER FORECAST...WITH AGAIN VARIABLE CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS
MOS LEANS TOWARDS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLEARING...BUT MORE OR LESS
TIME OF CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB +PNA PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN OR AT LEAST BECOMES MUCH FLATTER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH A BIT OF NW SKEW.
NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SOME CAA ON
WED...SO TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH THE THREAT OF
UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS...BUT AS 500 MB FLOW FLATTENS
OUT...LOOKS LIKE SOME SFC RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON THU...WITH SOME
MID-LVL WARMING...AND COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRI IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK 500MB WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST N OF THE CWA...SO ANY THREAT FOR SHSN SHOULD
STAY IN THE MTS...BUT WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS...AS EURO INDICATES
A SLIGHTLY SWD TREND TO TRACK. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY CLEARING THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. AFTERWARDS MVFR-VFR CIGS LIFT AND
SCATTER AT TIMES. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WNA RUNNING WAY LOW ON SEAS...ADJUSTED UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 8 PM.
LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE ON THE WATERS
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK...BEFORE NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVE
IN LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...REQUIRING SCA OR GALES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CEMPA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 200336
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1036 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY...PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN EXIT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE REGION AS CLEAR SLOT MOVED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE AFTER SUNSET. THIS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO
NEAR THE DEW POINT. WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITIES
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN AND OUT
FROM TIME TO TIME.
A MID LEVEL DECK IS COMPLICATING THE PICTURE AS IT ADECTS INTO THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
SUPRESS FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...OR...AT LEAST LIMIT HOW
WIDESPREAD OR THICK IT BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...HAD TO ADD FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL...BASED ON DISCUSSION
ABOVE. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. SAME GOES FOR THE
DEW POINTS...WITH A WILD VARIATION TONIGHT.
HAVE UPPED THE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LASTLY...BANDS OF SNOW ON LATEST RADAR IMAGES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT`S LATE NIGHT SURGE INTO SOUTHERN MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS, SYSTEM IS TOO FAR
AWAY TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY CLOUDS OR PRCP FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER
BROAD TROF ALOFT COULD STILL CREATE ISOLD TO POSSIBLY SCT -SHSN
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MT ZONES. GENERALLY USED
THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...AS WE TRANSITION FROM A HIGH TO LOW AMPLITUDE
PATTERN. DEEPENING OCEAN STORM PASSES TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS HERE. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT MARKED BY A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST GFS/EURO/CMC NOW CONCUR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY THEN EXITS INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN
FOLLOWS THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...WILD VARIATIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. ON TUESDAY
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MVFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...SEAS ARE JUST TO HIGH TO
IGNORE...AND FEEL COMPELLED TO HOIST SCAS ONCE AGAIN FOR SEAS
(OUTSIDE THE BAYS). HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THERE
IS A LARGE RANGE OF SEAS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 FEET FROM
WEST TO EAST. WNA GUIDANCE DOING A POOR JOB PICKING UP THESE LARGE
WAVES.
SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...SMALL CRAFT TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
STORM SYSTEM. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191956
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY...PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN EXIT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET SEGMENT MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TROF OF LOW
PRES AT THE SFC WHICH WILL TRACK NE THRU THE GULF OF MAINE TNGT.
AT THIS TIME AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH SOME -SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPR LVL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NE TOWARD NY CITY.
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND COULD SEE ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN FROM THIS SYSTEM TNGT. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS BUT
DID ADJUST POP UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS, SYSTEM IS TOO FAR
AWAY TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY CLOUDS OR PRCP FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER
BROAD TROF ALOFT COULD STILL CREATE ISOLD TO POSSIBLY SCT -SHSN
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MT ZONES. GENERALLY USED
THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...AS WE TRANSITION FROM A HIGH TO LOW AMPLITUDE
PATTERN. DEEPENING OCEAN STORM PASSES TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS HERE. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT MARKED BY A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST GFS/EURO/CMC NOW CONCUR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY THEN EXITS INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN
FOLLOWS THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VFR TO MVFR CIG WITH PSBL MVFR VSBY
IN -SHSN TNGT AS UPR LVL TROF/JET MOVE THRU ALONG WITH WEAK SFC
TROF OFF THE COAST. ON TUESDAY GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MVFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...WILL DROP THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AS SEAS SHOULD CONT TO SUBSIDE...DROPPING BLO THE 5
FT SCA THRESHOLD. SEAS LIKELY TO COME UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
DEEPENING OCEAN LOW MOVES NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY FROM THE N OR NE BUT STAY BLO SCA
LEVELS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...SMALL CRAFT TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
STORM SYSTEM. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191711
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1211 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HANGING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SNOW OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PROVIDING A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND THE POP TO SLGT CHC FOR LATE
TDA AND EARLY TNGT FOR SRN AND INTO CENTRAL ZONES WITH H5 VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND JET SEGMENT MOVING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE FA. THIS IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING AN AREA OF CLOUDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. OTRW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE 500 MB TROF APPROACHING BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. WILL CARRY TWO AREAS OF LOW CHANCE POPS. ONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WHERE QPF FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS COME CLOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW.
OTHERWISE...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT EDIT OUT
A PORTION WHERE GFS SEEMS TO GO CRAZY WITH ITS RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN CENTRAL MAINE. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT ANY LOCALIZED CLEARING
WOULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN LOWS...BUT HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED DOWN TO THIS DEGREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB POSITIVE
PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...OR AT LEAST BECOMES A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE...DURING THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. STILL...LARGE AND DEEP
500MB TROUGH OVER ERN HALF OF NOAM...WILL LINGER INTO MID-WEEK AS
IT WAITS FOR 500MB WAVE COMING OFF THE PACIFIC TO BREAK DOWN WRN
RIDGE.
SO FOR THE MID-WEEK...WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE GULF
STATES...AND WITH MOSTLY A POSITIVE TILT...SHOULD KEEP BEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL S AND OF OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD SEE THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAIN OFFSHORE. STILL...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SCT UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
ON TUE AS CAA IN THE NW FLOW ADDS TO THE MIX AS WELL. SOME SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR WED-THU...AND SETS UP RETURN FLOW PROVIDING A
BIT OF A WARM UP...WITH TEMPS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH CIG MAY LWR TO MVFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT LEB
AND CON...THRU TNGT.
NO EXTENDED OR WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. BASED ON BUOY
REPORTS WILL CONT THE SCA FOR SEAS FOR OUTER WATERS THRU 4 PM TDA
AS PREVIOUSLY FCST. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TO IMPROVE AS THE SFC
LOW RACES INTO THE MARITIMES TDA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL
BLO SCA CRITERIA. CONDITIONS STAY BLO SCA LEVELS TNGT.
AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO WIND UP S AND E OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND
WED...WILL LKLY NEED SCA...BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET FOR JANUARY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191602
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HANGING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SNOW OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PROVIDING A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO LWR POP FOR THIS MORNING AS RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS
ALL PRCP HAS EXITED THE FA WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING QUICKLY INTO
THE MARITIMES. STILL EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACROSS THE MT
ZONES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES HANGS BACK
ACROSS THE FA INTO THIS EVENING. ANY OTHER CHANGES ONLY VERY MINOR
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE 500 MB TROF APPROACHING BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. WILL CARRY TWO AREAS OF LOW CHANCE POPS. ONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WHERE QPF FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS COME CLOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW.
OTHERWISE...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT EDIT OUT
A PORTION WHERE GFS SEEMS TO GO CRAZY WITH ITS RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN CENTRAL MAINE. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT ANY LOCALIZED CLEARING
WOULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN LOWS...BUT HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED DOWN TO THIS DEGREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB POSITIVE
PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...OR AT LEAST BECOMES A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE...DURING THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. STILL...LARGE AND DEEP
500MB TROUGH OVER ERN HALF OF NOAM...WILL LINGER INTO MID-WEEK AS
IT WAITS FOR 500MB WAVE COMING OFF THE PACIFIC TO BREAK DOWN WRN
RIDGE.
SO FOR THE MID-WEEK...WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE GULF
STATES...AND WITH MOSTLY A POSITIVE TILT...SHOULD KEEP BEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL S AND OF OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD SEE THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAIN OFFSHORE. STILL...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SCT UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
ON TUE AS CAA IN THE NW FLOW ADDS TO THE MIX AS WELL. SOME SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR WED-THU...AND SETS UP RETURN FLOW PROVIDING A
BIT OF A WARM UP...WITH TEMPS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SPOTS
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
MAY LOCALLY LOWER VSBY...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED DEPENDING ON
SKIES ALOFT CLEARING.
NO EXTENDED OR WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SCA FOR
SEAS HEADLINE FOR BAYS. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR SEAS FOR OUTER
WATERS THRU 4 PM TDA AS PREVIOUSLY FCST. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TO
IMPROVE AS THE SFC LOW RACES INTO THE MARITIMES TDA. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. CONDITIONS STAY BLO SCA
LEVELS TNGT.
AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO WIND UP S AND E OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND
WED...WILL LKLY NEED SCA...BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET FOR JANUARY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190751
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE PAST EASTPORT THIS
MORNING...AND ANY SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SNOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND PROVIDES A SW FLOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SYN OPTICALLY THIS AREA IS BEING CAUSED BY A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN A
FAST UPPER FLOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE. 00Z NAM/GFS DO CAPTURE
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...THOUGH STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...PERHAPS A TAD SOUTH WITH IT AS IT FOLLOWS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MOST OF THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS ALOFT...WITH MOST SNOW GROWTH AT AROUND
-30. PER COORDINATION...THIS AREA IS PRODUCING 12:1 TO 15:1
RATIOS...LIKELY SINCE WHERE THE SNOW IS FORMING IT IS TOO COLD FOR
IDEAL GROWTH.
USING A BLEND OF NAM/GFS QPFS AND ADJUSTING FOR RADAR TRENDS AND
SNOW GROWTH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS WAVE
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE MID-COAST. JUST INLAND...AND IN
SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH 1 TO 3 IN
THE FOOTHILLS...AND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON
THIS...WILL ALLOW THE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE IN ALL BUT THE MID-COAST
WHERE THEY WILL BE EXTENDED...AS SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FOLLOWING THINKING OF PREVIOUS
SHIFT...WILL KEEP THIS THE SAME EVENT...AS SNOW ONLY BRIEFLY
STOPPED ALONG THE MID-COAST BETWEEN WAVES.
THE WAVE IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...SO THE FEATURE
SHOULD RACE TO NEAR EASTPORT BY 700 AM...AND QUICKLY INTO THE
MARITIMES BY LATE MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO MUCH...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING MUCH
OF THE DAY. CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES. ALSO...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT...THE 500 MB TROF APPROACHING BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. WILL CARRY TWO AREAS OF LOW CHANCE POPS. ONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WHERE QPF FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS COME CLOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW.
OTHERWISE...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT EDIT OUT
A PORTION WHERE GFS SEEMS TO GO CRAZY WITH ITS RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN CENTRAL MAINE. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT ANY LOCALIZED CLEARING
WOULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN LOWS...BUT HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED DOWN TO THIS DEGREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB POSITIVE
PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...OR AT LEAST BECOMES A MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE...DURING THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. STILL...LARGE AND DEEP
500MB TROUGH OVER ERN HALF OF NOAM...WILL LINGER INTO MID-WEEK AS
IT WAITS FOR 500MB WAVE COMING OFF THE PACIFIC TO BREAK DOWN WRN
RIDGE.
SO FOR THE MID-WEEK...WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE GULF
STATES...AND WITH MOSTLY A POSITIVE TILT...SHOULD KEEP BEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL S AND OF OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD SEE THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAIN OFFSHORE. STILL...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SCT UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
ON TUE AS CAA IN THE NW FLOW ADDS TO THE MIX AS WELL. SOME SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR WED-THU...AND SETS UP RETURN FLOW PROVIDING A
BIT OF A WARM UP...WITH TEMPS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN
-SN...RAPIDLY IMPROVING AROUND 12Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SPOTS
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY.
NO EXTENDED OR WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 11 AM IN THE BAYS...AND THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSHORE. WNA DOES NOT HANDLE THIS WELL...WITH
SIGNIFICANT EDITING. WINDS SHOULD RESPOND TO SURFACE LOW PASSING
TO THE SOUTH...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST LATE MORNING.
AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO WIND UP S AND E OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND
WED...WILL LKLY NEED SCA...BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET FOR JANUARY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ022-
025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CEMPA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190016
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES BY MONDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM SOUTH OF
CAPE COD MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** UPDATE...DRAMATIC CHANGES ON RADAR DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM ALONG AND
OFF THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE REPORTS OF SNOW
BEGINNING TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POINTS
SOUTH DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
EVENING AS MAIN SYNOPTIC SNOWBAND FROM SYSTEM #1 EXITS THE REGION.
AS CYCLONGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...NEW BANDS OF SNOW WILL
ROTATE OVER THE REGION. IT WILL LOCALLY BE ENHANCED BY THE
COASTAL FRONT WHICH REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
18Z GFS PICKS UP ON THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WHICH IS ROTATING AROUND A
LARGE AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT STEADY PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS
THROUGH 06Z OR SO.
HAVE UPPED POPS...QPF AND SNOW TOTALS FOR TONIGHT. THE BEAUTY
IS...THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS IN
PLACE (AS OPPOSED TO ISSUING NEW WARNINGS FOR THIS NEW SYSTEM)...HOWEVER
THEY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY A FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL WARNINGS NORTH AND EAST OF THAT REGION.
NEW SNOWFALL FROM THIS NEW SECOND SYSTEM OF THE DAY WILL BE CALLED
"NEW OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL" IN ANY UPCOMING TEXT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BIG STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL BE FINALLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN DAYS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD WITH WEAK UPR LVL IMPULSES AND SFC SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE FA
THRU THE LONG TERM. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON...BUT
SOME LGT TO PSBL MDT EVENTS COULD HAPPEN IF UPR LVL AND SFC
FEATURES INTENSIFY WITH NEW MODEL RUNS. WEAK LOW MOVES TO THE NE
STAYING OFF THE COAST MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD GIVE US
SOME LGT ACCUMULATING SNOW. CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES SE FROM CANADA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NGT WITH A CHC OF LGT SNOW OR -SHSN.
LOW PRES MOVING E WELL TO OUR S MAY SPREAD SOME -SN NWD INTO THE
FA NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS MONDAY NGT THRU
TUESDAY NGT THEN GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR. VFR ON MONDAY WITH AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK LOW MOVES TO THE NE
STAYING OFF THE COAST MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE
-SN WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PSBL. CLIPPER LOW MOVES SE FROM
CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NGT WITH A CHC OF -SN OR
-SHSN AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEAS FROM
00Z TO 12Z.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS GENERALLY STAY BLO
SCA LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU THE LONG TERM. SOME GUSTS COULD TOP 25 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL RUN AT SCA LEVELS MONDAY NGT THRU TUESDAY NGT DUE TO
LEFTOVER ROUGH WAVES FROM STORM TDA AND CONT PASSAGE OF WEAK LOW
PRES TNGT AND MONDAY. SEAS AGAIN COULD TOP SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY
NGT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ001-002-
004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190008
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
708 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES BY MONDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM SOUTH OF
CAPE COD MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** UPDATE...DRAMATIC CHANGES ON RADAR DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM ALONG AND
OFF THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE REPORTS OF SNOW
BEGINNING TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POINTS
SOUTH DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
EVENING AS MAIN SYNOPTIC SNOWBAND FROM SYSTEM #1 EXITS THE REGION.
AS CYCLONGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...NEW BANDS OF SNOW WILL
ROTATE OVER THE REGION. IT WILL LOCALLY BE ENHANCED BY THE
COASTAL FRONT WHICH REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
18Z GFS PICKS UP ON THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WHICH IS ROTATING AROUND A
LARGE AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT STEADY PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS
THROUGH 06Z OR SO.
HAVE UPPED POPS...QPF AND SNOW TOTALS FOR TONIGHT. THE BEAUTY
IS...THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS IN
PLACE (AS OPPOSED TO ISSUING NEW WARNINGS FOR THIS NEW SYSTEM)...HOWEVER
THEY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY A FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL WARNINGS NORTH AND EAST OF THAT REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BIG STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL BE FINALLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN DAYS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD WITH WEAK UPR LVL IMPULSES AND SFC SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE FA
THRU THE LONG TERM. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON...BUT
SOME LGT TO PSBL MDT EVENTS COULD HAPPEN IF UPR LVL AND SFC
FEATURES INTENSIFY WITH NEW MODEL RUNS. WEAK LOW MOVES TO THE NE
STAYING OFF THE COAST MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD GIVE US
SOME LGT ACCUMULATING SNOW. CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES SE FROM CANADA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NGT WITH A CHC OF LGT SNOW OR -SHSN.
LOW PRES MOVING E WELL TO OUR S MAY SPREAD SOME -SN NWD INTO THE
FA NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS MONDAY NGT THRU
TUESDAY NGT THEN GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR. VFR ON MONDAY WITH AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK LOW MOVES TO THE NE
STAYING OFF THE COAST MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE
-SN WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PSBL. CLIPPER LOW MOVES SE FROM
CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NGT WITH A CHC OF -SN OR
-SHSN AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEAS FROM
00Z TO 12Z.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS GENERALLY STAY BLO
SCA LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU THE LONG TERM. SOME GUSTS COULD TOP 25 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL RUN AT SCA LEVELS MONDAY NGT THRU TUESDAY NGT DUE TO
LEFTOVER ROUGH WAVES FROM STORM TDA AND CONT PASSAGE OF WEAK LOW
PRES TNGT AND MONDAY. SEAS AGAIN COULD TOP SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY
NGT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ001-002-
004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
000
FXUS61 KGYX 182000
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES BY MONDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM SOUTH OF
CAPE COD MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OVER-RUNNING MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW COMING INTO MID COAST
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OFF CAPE COD AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. ONLY EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN
MID COAST AREAS AS BEST DYNAMICS PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS AS
UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BIG STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL BE FINALLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN DAYS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD WITH WEAK UPR LVL IMPULSES AND SFC SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE FA
THRU THE LONG TERM. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON...BUT
SOME LGT TO PSBL MDT EVENTS COULD HAPPEN IF UPR LVL AND SFC
FEATURES INTENSIFY WITH NEW MODEL RUNS. WEAK LOW MOVES TO THE NE
STAYING OFF THE COAST MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD GIVE US
SOME LGT ACCUMULATING SNOW. CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES SE FROM CANADA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NGT WITH A CHC OF LGT SNOW OR -SHSN.
LOW PRES MOVING E WELL TO OUR S MAY SPREAD SOME -SN NWD INTO THE
FA NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS MONDAY NGT THRU
TUESDAY NGT THEN GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR. VFR ON MONDAY WITH AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK LOW MOVES TO THE NE
STAYING OFF THE COAST MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE
-SN WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PSBL. CLIPPER LOW MOVES SE FROM
CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NGT WITH A CHC OF -SN OR
-SHSN AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CARRY GALES IN EASTERN WATERS THROUGH 00Z AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA`S FOR SEAS FROM 00Z TO 12Z.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS GENERALLY STAY BLO
SCA LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU THE LONG TERM. SOME GUSTS COULD TOP 25 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL RUN AT SCA LEVELS MONDAY NGT THRU TUESDAY NGT DUE TO
LEFTOVER ROUGH WAVES FROM STORM TDA AND CONT PASSAGE OF WEAK LOW
PRES TNGT AND MONDAY. SEAS AGAIN COULD TOP SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY
NGT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ001-002-
004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154-170.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 181536
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1036 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NEW ENGLAND IN A DRY PATTERN
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE OF ZONE FORECASTS TO BUMP UP SNOW
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. GETTING
SPOTTER REPORTS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES ALREADY WITH SNOW RATIOS OF
25/30 TO 1. CAN SEE NO PROBLEM PILING UP 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE PASSING LONG WAVE WILL END IN THE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE COASTAL FRONT
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH TROUGH...IT WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY SNOW PRODUCER. WINDS SHOULD BACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...AND END THE RAIN THREAT FOR THE MID COAST. AFTER THE
LOW PULLS AWAY...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST...SO
LIGHT SNOW (OR PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE) SHOULD LINGER. LOWS
WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS FINALLY BEEN REACHED FOR MONDAY...AS THE GFS
HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW. FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME -SHSN LINGER EAST AS THE MESO LOW
EXITS...BUT THIS ONLY WORTH CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE 500 MB TROF APPROACHES...WORTH CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEAR SOME ATTENTION...THOUGH FEATURES
CONTINUE TO BE SUBTLE. 500 MB TROF CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES EAST. GFS/NAM/GEM ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AT
ALL...LIKELY LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN QPFS. NAM/GEM/EUROPEAN HINT AT A
NORLUN-ISH FEATURE...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVELS...EVEN IF THE PROCESS DOES
OCCUR IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GEM/EUROPEAN ARE ABOUT 6 HRS
EARLIER THAN THE NAM. ATTEMPT TO USE A 4 MODEL CONSENSUS
HERE...BASICALLY CARRYING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR THIS FEATURE. UNCOMFORTABLE GOING HIGHER AT THIS POINTS...WITH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER AN INVERTED TROF WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FOR
NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL...WITH AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...HEDGE A TAD COLDER THAN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES (NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A WARM BIAS FOR HIGHS).
LOOKING AHEAD...GFS/EUROPEAN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH AGREE
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND IS ON FRIDAY...WITH
THE EUROPEAN A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS. OUTSIDE OF BLENDING THE
TIMING OF THE TWO...THE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS THE SNOW MOVES NORTHEAST...TERMINALS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. AS
THE SNOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST...ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO LIFR WITH
SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE AT KCON AND KLEB AFTER 2200 UTC.
A COASTAL FRONT HAS FORMED THIS MORNING (NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP). THIS IS KEEPING WINDS NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KPWM...KPSM AND KAUG. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. KLEB AND KCON WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH LATE.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING AT KLEB NEAR
0000 UTC MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH 0400 UTC AT KAUG. AFTER THIS
SNOW ENDS...A SLOW PROGRESSION TO MVFR IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO
EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD...NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COASTAL FRONT HAS FORMED...AND WINDS ARE TAKING ON A CONFIGURATION
COMMON WITH COASTAL FRONTS. ON THE COLD SIDE...CASCO BAY AND PENOBSCOT
BAY ARE BOTH SHOWING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ON THE MILDER SIDE...IOSN3 AND 44005 ARE
SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT LIMITS.
THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE COASTAL FRONT WAVERS. AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COASTAL
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE PENOBSCOT BAY
AND CAUSE WINDS ELSEWHERE TO VEER. ON THE MILDER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS (WHICH IS WHAT
IS AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION THERE). FOR THIS REASON...
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ANZ ANZ150...ANZ151 AND ANZ152.
ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS RETAINED. THE CASCO BAY
WIND DIRECTION COULD BE VERY SLOW TO VEER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS COULD EVEN PREVENT WINDS FROM REACHING SMALL CRAFT LIMITS. IN
ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST SWELL SHOULD BRING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS TO ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WINDS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD
START TO TAKE ON A MORE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL APPEARANCE WITH THE FRONT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN ALL
WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE WATERS.
THIS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD ON THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 25
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ001-002-
004-006-008>010-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ003-
005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ153-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KGYX 180906
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NEW ENGLAND IN A DRY PATTERN
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF THE MID COAST.
CURRENTLY...SNOW IS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA. THE SNOW
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
MAINE IS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW OVERSPREADING CENTRAL MAINE IS
MAINLY OCEAN EFFECT...WITH IS RUNNING OVER THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
HAS FORMED OVER THE WATERS. BOTH PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS IS A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR SNOW TODAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE BUT FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. BY ITSELF...IT
WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO IS FAIRLY HIGH THIS MORNING...AND WILL LOWER ONLY A BIT ONCE
THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED.
THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MAINE...WHERE SOME
SYNOPTIC SCALE BANDING CAN BE EXPECTED. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE
THE SNOWFALL BULLSEYE WITH RESPECT TO LARGER SCALE FORCING.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS GAGING THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PRODUCE BY
OVERRUNNING THE COASTAL FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIRLY GOOD
UPGLIDE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MAINE...ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE
(SOUTHEAST) FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN MAINE. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT PLACING BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. PRESUMABLY...MUCH OF THIS IS PRODUCED
ON THE MESOSCALE LEVEL...AND MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF
MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE QPF PRODUCED IN THESE AREAS...THE PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE RETAINED IN WESTERN MAINE...WITH A COUPLE OF
EXCEPTIONS. BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW EXTENDING FROM CARROLL COUNTY
NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE...
ACCUMULATIONS WERE RAISED IN THESE AREAS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE GET A FEW 14 INCH
AMOUNTS BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO NUDGE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MID
COAST OF MAINE DOWN A BIT. THE COASTAL FRONT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
AND IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ALL MODELS BRING THIS ASHORE IN
THE MIDCOAST. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TWO IMPACTS. FIRST...THIS
COULD CAUSE A MIX OR OUTRIGHT CHANGE TO RAIN SOUTH OF ROUTE 1 FROM
BOOTHBAY TO CAMDEN. SECOND...IT SHOULD ALSO IMPACT THE SNOW RATIOS
(MAKE THEM LOWER) WITH A WARMER LOWER LEVEL.
THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COOS
COUNTY. THE UPSLOPE (SOUTHEAST) FLOW (ALREADY SEEN ON THE KHIE
OBSERVATION EARLY THIS MORNING) SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM COLEBROOK DOWN TO
DALTON... THE DOWNSLOPE COULD RESULT IN THESE PLACES SEE LESS THAN
4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE
COASTAL FRONT...AND AN NGM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS HERE.
FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL APPROACH (OR PASS)...
HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE PASSING LONG WAVE WILL END IN THE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE COASTAL FRONT
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH TROUGH...IT WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY SNOW PRODUCER. WINDS SHOULD BACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...AND END THE RAIN THREAT FOR THE MID COAST. AFTER THE
LOW PULLS AWAY...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST...SO
LIGHT SNOW (OR PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE) SHOULD LINGER. LOWS
WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS FINALLY BEEN REACHED FOR MONDAY...AS THE GFS
HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW. FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME -SHSN LINGER EAST AS THE MESO LOW
EXITS...BUT THIS ONLY WORTH CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE 500 MB TROF APPROACHES...WORTH CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEAR SOME ATTENTION...THOUGH FEATURES
CONTINUE TO BE SUBTLE. 500 MB TROF CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES EAST. GFS/NAM/GEM ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AT
ALL...LIKELY LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN QPFS. NAM/GEM/EUROPEAN HINT AT A
NORLUN-ISH FEATURE...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVELS...EVEN IF THE PROCESS DOES
OCCUR IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GEM/EUROPEAN ARE ABOUT 6 HRS
EARLIER THAN THE NAM. ATTEMPT TO USE A 4 MODEL CONSENSUS
HERE...BASICALLY CARRYING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR THIS FEATURE. UNCOMFORTABLE GOING HIGHER AT THIS POINTS...WITH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER AN INVERTED TROF WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FOR
NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL...WITH AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...HEDGE A TAD COLDER THAN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES (NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A WARM BIAS FOR HIGHS).
LOOKING AHEAD...GFS/EUROPEAN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH AGREE
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND IS ON FRIDAY...WITH
THE EUROPEAN A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS. OUTSIDE OF BLENDING THE
TIMING OF THE TWO...THE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS THE SNOW MOVES NORTHEAST...TERMINALS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. AS
THE SNOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST...ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO LIFR WITH
SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE AT KCON AND KLEB AFTER 2200 UTC.
A COASTAL FRONT HAS FORMED THIS MORNING (NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP). THIS IS KEEPING WINDS NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KPWM...KPSM AND KAUG. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. KLEB AND KCON WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH LATE.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING AT KLEB NEAR
0000 UTC MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH 0400 UTC AT KAUG. AFTER THIS
SNOW ENDS...A SLOW PROGRESSION TO MVFR IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO
EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD...NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A COASTAL FRONT HAS FORMED...AND WINDS ARE TAKING ON A CONFIGURATION
COMMON WITH COASTAL FRONTS. ON THE COLD SIDE...CASCO BAY AND PENOBSCOT
BAY ARE BOTH SHOWING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ON THE MILDER SIDE...IOSN3 AND 44005 ARE
SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT LIMITS.
THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE COASTAL FRONT WAVERS. AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COASTAL
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE PENOBSCOT BAY
AND CAUSE WINDS ELSEWHERE TO VEER. ON THE MILDER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS (WHICH IS WHAT
IS AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION THERE). FOR THIS REASON...
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ANZ ANZ150...ANZ151 AND ANZ152.
ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS RETAINED. THE CASCO BAY
WIND DIRECTION COULD BE VERY SLOW TO VEER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS COULD EVEN PREVENT WINDS FROM REACHING SMALL CRAFT LIMITS. IN
ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST SWELL SHOULD BRING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS TO ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WINDS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD
START TO TAKE ON A MORE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL APPEARANCE WITH THE FRONT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN ALL
WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE WATERS.
THIS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD ON THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 25
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ001-002-
004-006-008>010-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ003-
005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ153-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ150>152.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...APFFEL
000
FXUS61 KGYX 180343
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1043 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST IN IT`S WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
GRIDS UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. ARCTIC BOUNDRY
REMAINS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THIS LINE ARE WELL BELOW ZERO WITH READINGS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
-27F AT PQI ALREADY DISPITE CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE REGION. VERY
COLD AIR WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP. SOUTHEAST FACING UPSLOPE TERRAIN
WILL DO WELL IN THIS SITUATION. CONCERNED ABOUT THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE JUST BEEN UPGRADED
FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ANOTHER BULLS-EYE DURING THESE
TYPES OF EVENTS MAY BE THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CARROLL COUNTY WHICH
WILL DO WELL WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL.
SOME OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD WHERE
COASTAL FRONT IS IN THE MAKING AS WE SPEAK. AREAS IN YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES MAY PICK UP THESE FLURRIES ALONG THE COASTLINE
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AIR ABOVE THIS LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER
WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT AS PER VERY DRY CURRENT KGYX SOUNDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SNOW TO PICK UP INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATION COMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE MID COAST MAINE WILL COLLECT THE MOST SNOWFALL AND DEPENDING
ON SNOW TO WATER RATIO`S COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
10 INCHES WILL BLANKET SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
RISE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS FROM PORTLAND
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
VERY COLD 850 TO 700 MB THICKNESSES CAN`T SEE THIS HAPPENING AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE OVERUNNING SNOWS ACROSS NH AND SRN ME WILL BE COMING
TO AN END IN THE EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW. EASTERN
AREAS WILL BE LAST TO SEE AN END TO THE SNOW...ALSO A BRIEF MIX
MAY OCCUR OVER XTRRM ERN COASTAL AREAS AS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT
TRIES TO BREIFLY WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE. THE WINTER STM WARNINGS
WILL REMAIN UP TIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY. A DRY SLOT MOVES THRU LATER AT NIGHT
BUT WITH THE UPPER VORTEX STILL WELL TO THE W ONE WOULD NOT EXPECT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. ALSO STILL NEED TO WATCH THE
NEXT WAVE THAT PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER VORTEX
MONDAY...FOR NOW MODELS ALL INDICATE IT REMAINS WEAK AND BEHAVES
AS IT MOVES WELL OUT TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND MAYBE ONLY BRUSHING
OUR ERN FORECAST AREA ZONES. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
QUIET WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
BOUT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE AROUND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PUSH OF
WAA TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY N INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
TRACKS WELL TO OUR W THRU THE GT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BECOMING IFR/LIFR FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS SUN EVENING TO BECOME MVFR TO VFR BY
LATE AT NIGHT. ON MON AND MON NIGHT VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY
SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA...THEN
GENERALLY VFR CONDS THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE RAISED SCAS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA`S FOR SEAS SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE NO
FLAGS FORESEEN THRU MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 180317
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1017 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST IN IT`S WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
GRIDS UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. ARCTIC BOUNDRY
REMAINS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THIS LINE ARE WELL BELOW ZERO WITH READINGS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
-27F AT PQI ALREADY DISPITE CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP. SOUTHEAST FACING UPSLOPE TERRAIN
WILL DO WELL IN THIS SITUATION. CONCERNED ABOUT THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ANOTHER BULLS-EYE DURING
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS MAY BE THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CARROLL COUNTY
WHICH WILL DO WELL WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL.
SOME OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD.
AREAS IN YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES MAY PICK UP THESE FLURRIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AIR ABOVE THIS LOW
LEVEL MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS PER VERY DRY CURRENT KGYX SOUNDING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MAINE. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SPREAD OVER-
RUNNING SNOWS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES AND
WILL REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING FOR LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST AND HAVE ISSUED
ADVISORIES FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SNOW TO PICK UP INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATION COMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE MID COAST MAINE WILL COLLECT THE MOST SNOWFALL AND DEPENDING
ON SNOW TO WATER RATIO`S COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
10 INCHES WILL BLANKET SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
RISE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS FROM PORTLAND
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
VERY COLD 850 TO 700 MB THICKNESSES CAN`T SEE THIS HAPPENING AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE OVERUNNING SNOWS ACROSS NH AND SRN ME WILL BE COMING
TO AN END IN THE EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW. EASTERN
AREAS WILL BE LAST TO SEE AN END TO THE SNOW...ALSO A BRIEF MIX
MAY OCCUR OVER XTRRM ERN COASTAL AREAS AS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT
TRIES TO BREIFLY WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE. THE WINTER STM WARNINGS
WILL REMAIN UP TIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY. A DRY SLOT MOVES THRU LATER AT NIGHT
BUT WITH THE UPPER VORTEX STILL WELL TO THE W ONE WOULD NOT EXPECT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. ALSO STILL NEED TO WATCH THE
NEXT WAVE THAT PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER VORTEX
MONDAY...FOR NOW MODELS ALL INDICATE IT REMAINS WEAK AND BEHAVES
AS IT MOVES WELL OUT TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND MAYBE ONLY BRUSHING
OUR ERN FORECAST AREA ZONES. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
QUIET WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
BOUT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE AROUND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PUSH OF
WAA TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY N INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
TRACKS WELL TO OUR W THRU THE GT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BECOMING IFR/LIFR FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS SUN EVENING TO BECOME MVFR TO VFR BY
LATE AT NIGHT. ON MON AND MON NIGHT VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY
SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA...THEN
GENERALLY VFR CONDS THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE RAISED SCAS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA`S FOR SEAS SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE NO
FLAGS FORESEEN THRU MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 171938
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST IN IT`S WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MAINE. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SPREAD OVER-RUNNING SNOWS INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES AND WILL REACH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING FOR LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST AND HAVE ISSUED
ADVISORIES FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SNOW TO PICK UP INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATION COMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE MID COAST MAINE WILL COLLECT THE MOST SNOWFALL AND DEPENDING
ON SNOW TO WATER RATIO`S COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
10 INCHES WILL BLANKET SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
RISE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS FROM PORTLAND
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
VERY COLD 850 TO 700 MB THICKNESSES CAN`T SEE THIS HAPPENING AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE OVERUNNING SNOWS ACROSS NH AND SRN ME WILL BE COMING
TO AN END IN THE EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW. EASTERN
AREAS WILL BE LAST TO SEE AN END TO THE SNOW...ALSO A BRIEF MIX
MAY OCCUR OVER XTRRM ERN COASTAL AREAS AS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT
TRIES TO BREIFLY WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE. THE WINTER STM WARNINGS
WILL REMAIN UP TIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY. A DRY SLOT MOVES THRU LATER AT NIGHT
BUT WITH THE UPPER VORTEX STILL WELL TO THE W ONE WOULD NOT EXPECT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. ALSO STILL NEED TO WATCH THE
NEXT WAVE THAT PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER VORTEX
MONDAY...FOR NOW MODELS ALL INDICATE IT REMAINS WEAK AND BEHAVES
AS IT MOVES WELL OUT TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND MAYBE ONLY BRUSHING
OUR ERN FORECAST AREA ZONES. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
QUIET WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
BOUT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE AROUND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PUSH OF
WAA TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY N INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
TRACKS WELL TO OUR W THRU THE GT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BECOMING IFR/LIFR FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS SUN EVENING TO BECOME MVFR TO VFR BY
LATE AT NIGHT. ON MON AND MON NIGHT VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY
SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA...THEN
GENERALLY VFR CONDS THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAY NEED SCA`S FOR SEAS OR WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA`S FOR SEAS SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE NO
FLAGS FORESEEN THRU MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ018-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>003-005-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
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