000
FXUS63 KGRR 201658
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(343 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
US BY WEDNESDAY. AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR 30 DEGREES BY THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE TODAY WHICH SHOULD SEND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS INLAND. RH PROFILES SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE SHSN. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE TOO
FAR NORTHEAST TO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AM.
WE/LL ADD FLURRIES TO THE ERN CWA WITH DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
EUROPEAN AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS (30/40 PCT)
FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE ANYTHING VERY HEAVY IN OUR AREA WITH THE HIGHER PCPN
STAYING NORTH OF THE GRR CWA. COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH -20 C AIR IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN AT 850MB/S. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS STATED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THROUGH SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD COMPARED TO MOST OF THE WINTER.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH A PLUNGE BACK INTO DEEP WINTER BY SATURDAY IT
APPEARS. THE COLD AIR WILL THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.AVIATION...(1158 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH LOW
CLOUDS...MVFR CEILINGS...BACK INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z. LAN AND JXN WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MAY NOT GO MVFR
UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WITH CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ICE JAMS AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: DUKE
MARINE: 93
AVIATION OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 201156
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
656 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(3430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
US BY WEDNESDAY. AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR 30 DEGREES BY THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE TODAY WHICH SHOULD SEND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS INLAND. RH PROFILES SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE SHSN. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE TOO
FAR NORTHEAST TO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AM.
WE/LL ADD FLURRIES TO THE ERN CWA WITH DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
EUROPEAN AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS (30/40 PCT)
FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE ANYTHING VERY HEAVY IN OUR AREA WITH THE HIGHER PCPN
STAYING NORTH OF THE GRR CWA. COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH -20 C AIR IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN AT 850MB/S. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS STATED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THROUGH SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD COMPARED TO MOST OF THE WINTER.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH A PLUNGE BACK INTO DEEP WINTER BY SATURDAY IT
APPEARS. THE COLD AIR WILL THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.AVIATION...(656 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
KAZO AND KBTL. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC...BUT EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY TRY TO PUSH
INTO KLAN AND KJXN THIS MORNING...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THINGS VFR. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PUSH LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CEILINGS...BACK INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT
ALL TAF SITES FROM OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WITH CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ICE JAMS AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: DUKE
MARINE: 93
AVIATION DUKE
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 200931
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(3430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
US BY WEDNESDAY. AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR 30 DEGREES BY THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE TODAY WHICH SHOULD SEND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS INLAND. RH PROFILES SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE SHSN. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE TOO
FAR NORTHEAST TO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AM.
WE/LL ADD FLURRIES TO THE ERN CWA WITH DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
EUROPEAN AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS (30/40 PCT)
FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE ANYTHING VERY HEAVY IN OUR AREA WITH THE HIGHER PCPN
STAYING NORTH OF THE GRR CWA. COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH -20 C AIR IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN AT 850MB/S. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS STATED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THROUGH SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD COMPARED TO MOST OF THE WINTER.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES...WITH A PLUNGE BACK INTO DEEP WINTER BY SATURDAY IT
APPEARS. THE COLD AIR WILL THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST WITH WAVES BUILDINT TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.AVIATION...(1140 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
THERE WERE STILL A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR FOG PATCHES HANGING ON AT 04Z SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR. CONSIDERING THE VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF THESE FEATURES AND DRY
(BUT RELATIVELY WEAK) NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLRYS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY COME BACK INTO MKG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS TO THE NW. NOT SURE WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED OR BKN TO OVC AS THEY COME ONSHORE... BUT THEY MAY EVEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z WED WITH MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED. WILL GO SCATTERED WITH THE CLOUDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AT THIS POINT SINCE THE FLOW IS RATHER ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(430 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WITH CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ICE JAMS AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: DUKE
MARINE: 93
AVIATION MEADE
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 200442
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY. THEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL WINDS WILL DRAW A MODERATING AIRMASS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(1042 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER MINS ACROSS THE NRN CWA. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD. KGRR-88D SHOWS THE BAND OF SHSN THAT WAS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY ONSHORE TODAY THEN BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE
THIS EVENING...HAS DONE JUST THAT. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN BUT ARE
DIMINISHING.
THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THEN. NO FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
WED NIGHT...SO A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER OUR AREA DURING
THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS I SUSPECT THAT WNW TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AND
SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR
CWFA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(1140 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
THERE WERE STILL A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR FOG PATCHES HANGING ON AT 04Z SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR. CONSIDERING THE VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF THESE FEATURES AND DRY
(BUT RELATIVELY WEAK) NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLRYS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY COME BACK INTO MKG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS TO THE NW. NOT SURE WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED OR BKN TO OVC AS THEY COME ONSHORE... BUT THEY MAY EVEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z WED WITH MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED. WILL GO SCATTERED WITH THE CLOUDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AT THIS POINT SINCE THE FLOW IS RATHER ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS 93
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION MEADE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 200342
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1042 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY. THEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL WINDS WILL DRAW A MODERATING AIRMASS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(1042 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER MINS ACROSS THE NRN CWA. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD. KGRR-88D SHOWS THE BAND OF SHSN THAT WAS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY ONSHORE TODAY THEN BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE
THIS EVENING...HAS DONE JUST THAT. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN BUT ARE
DIMINISHING.
THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THEN. NO FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
WED NIGHT...SO A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER OUR AREA DURING
THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS I SUSPECT THAT WNW TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AND
SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR
CWFA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(625 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
WILL FCST VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
PERSISTS AND KEEPS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT BAY. THE FLOW DOES BEGIN TO
BACK LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATOCU
MOVING INTO MKG AFTER 21Z.
OUTLOOK...THE LAKE CLOUDS MAY SPREAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES AFTER 00Z WED WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS 93
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION MEADE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 192325
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
625 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY. THEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL WINDS WILL DRAW A MODERATING AIRMASS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALONG THE
LAKESHORE THIS EVENING.
WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SNOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BAND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SOUTH
HAVEN. WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE
LAKESHORE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS. ASSUMING THE NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THAT SHOULD PUSH THE BAND OFFSHORE IN A FEW
HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THEN. NO FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH WED NIGHT...SO A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER OUR AREA DURING
THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS I SUSPECT THAT WNW TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AND
SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR
CWFA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(625 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
WILL FCST VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
PERSISTS AND KEEPS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT BAY. THE FLOW DOES BEGIN TO
BACK LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATOCU
MOVING INTO MKG AFTER 21Z.
OUTLOOK...THE LAKE CLOUDS MAY SPREAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES AFTER 00Z WED WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION MEADE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 192036
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY. THEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL WINDS WILL DRAW A MODERATING AIRMASS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALONG THE
LAKESHORE THIS EVENING.
WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SNOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BAND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SOUTH
HAVEN. WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE
LAKESHORE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS. ASSUMING THE NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THAT SHOULD PUSH THE BAND OFFSHORE IN A FEW
HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THEN. NO FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH WED NIGHT...SO A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER OUR AREA DURING
THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AS
THIS
OCCURS I SUSPECT THAT WNW TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AND SHOULD
KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(1215 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z TUE. A
NORTHERLY FLOW LES BAND ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
STAY WEST OF THE MKG TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. CU POTENTIAL
TODAY SEEMS LIMITED BY A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NORTHERLY
FLOW. ANY CU THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVE FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. RADIATION FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT NOW THAT DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(335 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 191716
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
KGRR-88D SHOWS A DOMINANT LAKE BAND MOVING SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS BAND HAS STAYED JUST OFF SHORE OF LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS.
RUC13 OMEGA FIELD SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY AND TAKES THE BAND INTO
BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES JUST SW OF THE CWA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ZIPPING SOUTH TODAY WILL BACK THE FLOW A TAD AND MAY SEND THIS BAND
OF SNOW BACK TO THE EAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTH...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NNE AND THE
BAND WILL MOVE WWD AGAIN. SO...IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME LIKE WE/LL SEE
MUCH SNOW TODAY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE FROM THE LOW THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH AND IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES TODAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. EXPECT
SOME MORE FLURRIES TONIGHT TOO AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SECOND
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRY WX AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AFTER TWO WEEKS OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IT
SEEMS WE ARE IN FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD. SEEMS THE NORTHERN STREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST...SEEMS TO WANT TO RETROGRADE OVER TIME BACK TOWARD THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES (IN TWO WEEKS). WHILE THAT IS HAPPENING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WANTS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PASS IT`S ENERGY UNDER
THE RETROGRADING NORTHERN STREAM. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS TO WEST
MICHIGAN IS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY IS NOT
LIKELY TO LINK UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THAT
MEANS TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERALL.
SO AS THE WESTERN RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE
SQUASHED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH RETROGRESSION. THAT WILL
PREVENT A SNOW MELTING WARM UP AND ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK AWAY
FROM WEST MICHIGAN THIS WEEK. ONCE THE POLAR JET MOVES NORTH AND
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A FEW DAYS. THANKS TO THE STORM TRACK BEING NORTH OF
HERE...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MOST OF THAT SHOULD STAY
FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE POLAR
JET STREAM.
THERE WAS SOME SUGGESTION IN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WOULD TRY TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS THE
COLD AIR COMES BACK IN FRIDAY BUT ECMWF HAS NOT DONE THAT SOLUTION
YET AND NOW THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE COLD AIR WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTH
NORTHEAST SO LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SEEMS LIKELY EITHER. IT WILL
JUST GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REMEMBER THIS AIR
IS COMING FROM SIBERIA...IT WILL INDEED TURN COLD AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(1215 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z TUE. A
NORTHERLY FLOW LES BAND ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
STAY WEST OF THE MKG TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. CU POTENTIAL
TODAY SEEMS LIMITED BY A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NORTHERLY
FLOW. ANY CU THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVE FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. RADIATION FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT NOW THAT DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: 93
AVIATION LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 191138
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
KGRR-88D SHOWS A DOMINANT LAKE BAND MOVING SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS BAND HAS STAYED JUST OFF SHORE OF LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS.
RUC13 OMEGA FIELD SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY AND TAKES THE BAND INTO
BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES JUST SW OF THE CWA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ZIPPING SOUTH TODAY WILL BACK THE FLOW A TAD AND MAY SEND THIS BAND
OF SNOW BACK TO THE EAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTH...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NNE AND THE
BAND WILL MOVE WWD AGAIN. SO...IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME LIKE WE/LL SEE
MUCH SNOW TODAY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE FROM THE LOW THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH AND IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES TODAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. EXPECT
SOME MORE FLURRIES TONIGHT TOO AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SECOND
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRY WX AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AFTER TWO WEEKS OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IT
SEEMS WE ARE IN FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD. SEEMS THE NORTHERN STREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST...SEEMS TO WANT TO RETROGRADE OVER TIME BACK TOWARD THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES (IN TWO WEEKS). WHILE THAT IS HAPPENING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WANTS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PASS IT`S ENERGY UNDER
THE RETROGRADING NORTHERN STREAM. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS TO WEST
MICHIGAN IS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY IS NOT
LIKELY TO LINK UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THAT
MEANS TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERALL.
SO AS THE WESTERN RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE
SQUASHED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH RETROGRESSION. THAT WILL
PREVENT A SNOW MELTING WARM UP AND ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK AWAY
FROM WEST MICHIGAN THIS WEEK. ONCE THE POLAR JET MOVES NORTH AND
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A FEW DAYS. THANKS TO THE STORM TRACK BEING NORTH OF
HERE...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MOST OF THAT SHOULD STAY
FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE POLAR
JET STREAM.
THERE WAS SOME SUGGESTION IN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WOULD TRY TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS THE
COLD AIR COMES BACK IN FRIDAY BUT ECMWF HAS NOT DONE THAT SOLUTION
YET AND NOW THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE COLD AIR WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTH
NORTHEAST SO LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SEEMS LIKELY EITHER. IT WILL
JUST GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REMEMBER THIS AIR
IS COMING FROM SIBERIA...IT WILL INDEED TURN COLD AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(636 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD DUE TO THE LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 6000 FT TODAY...SO CU WILL LIKELY FORM
AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. ONCE THE SUN SETS THROUGH THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SINCE THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR TONIGHT FOG WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM THAT IT IS THIS MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: 93
AVIATION WDM
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 190815
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
KGRR-88D SHOWS A DOMINANT LAKE BAND MOVING SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS BAND HAS STAYED JUST OFF SHORE OF LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS.
RUC13 OMEGA FIELD SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY AND TAKES THE BAND INTO
BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES JUST SW OF THE CWA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ZIPPING SOUTH TODAY WILL BACK THE FLOW A TAD AND MAY SEND THIS BAND
OF SNOW BACK TO THE EAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTH...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NNE AND THE
BAND WILL MOVE WWD AGAIN. SO...IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME LIKE WE/LL SEE
MUCH SNOW TODAY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE FROM THE LOW THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH AND IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES TODAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. EXPECT
SOME MORE FLURRIES TONIGHT TOO AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SECOND
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRY WX AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AFTER TWO WEEKS OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IT
SEEMS WE ARE IN FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD. SEEMS THE NORTHERN STREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST...SEEMS TO WANT TO RETROGRADE OVER TIME BACK TOWARD THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES (IN TWO WEEKS). WHILE THAT IS HAPPENING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WANTS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PASS IT`S ENERGY UNDER
THE RETROGRADING NORTHERN STREAM. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS TO WEST
MICHIGAN IS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY IS NOT
LIKELY TO LINK UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THAT
MEANS TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERALL.
SO AS THE WESTERN RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE
SQUASHED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH RETROGRESSION. THAT WILL
PREVENT A SNOW MELTING WARM UP AND ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK AWAY
FROM WEST MICHIGAN THIS WEEK. ONCE THE POLAR JET MOVES NORTH AND
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A FEW DAYS. THANKS TO THE STORM TRACK BEING NORTH OF
HERE...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MOST OF THAT SHOULD STAY
FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE POLAR
JET STREAM.
THERE WAS SOME SUGGESTION IN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WOULD TRY TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS THE
COLD AIR COMES BACK IN FRIDAY BUT ECMWF HAS NOT DONE THAT SOLUTION
YET AND NOW THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE COLD AIR WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTH
NORTHEAST SO LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SEEMS LIKELY EITHER. IT WILL
JUST GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REMEMBER THIS AIR
IS COMING FROM SIBERIA...IT WILL INDEED TURN COLD AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(1159 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
DECREASING CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAVE BEEN
FORMING. AM THINKING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT... WITH PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR WHERE ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST.
NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE... POSSIBLY CLIPPING KMKG BY 18Z WITH PSBL
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE A SCT TO BKN STRATOCU DECK
AROUND 2500-3500 FT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(314 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: 93
AVIATION: MEADE
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 190511
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
GOING NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A MODERATING TREND WILL
THEN DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(352 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE LAKESHORE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH AN
OFFSHORE PUSH OF THE SNOWBAND EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WAS CAUSING PROBLEMS ACROSS
THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...AND FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE PERSISTS
THROUGH 7 PM. BASED ON THIS WILL EXTEND THE HEADLINES TIL 06Z
TONIGHT.
BL CONVERGENCE CLIPS BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
THEREFORE MENTION ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO BECOME
SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
MONDAY A MESO LOW IS SHOWN BY THE NAM40 JUST OFFSHORE VAN BUREN
COUNTY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE SOUTHWEST OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.
THIS CONVERGENCE REMAINS OUTSIDE OF MY AREA FOR MONDAY.
THEN MONDAY NIGHT MORE OF A NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AWAY FROM THE REGION. ON
TUESDAY THE FLOW BACKS AND BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC...WITH WOULD BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN...BUT KEEP THEM RELATIVELY WEAK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONG RANGE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS NW CANADA WILL BUILD SE INTO
OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOTHER
COLD SHOT OF AIR IS ON THE WAY FRIDAY AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MAX
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPS AT NIGHT
COULD DIP DOWN TO WELL BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND IF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD... BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT ANY MAJOR WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...(705 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW BEHIND SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NSH AREA AND HAVE LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
&&
.AVIATION...(1159 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
DECREASING CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAVE BEEN
FORMING. AM THINKING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT... WITH PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR WHERE ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST.
NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE... POSSIBLY CLIPPING KMKG BY 18Z WITH PSBL
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE A SCT TO BKN STRATOCU DECK
AROUND 2500-3500 FT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR OTTAWA ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM
TONIGHT.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MEADE
AVIATION: MEADE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 190009
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
705 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION AND MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...(350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
GOING NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A MODERATING TREND WILL
THEN DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(352 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE LAKESHORE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH AN
OFFSHORE PUSH OF THE SNOWBAND EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WAS CAUSING PROBLEMS ACROSS
THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...AND FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE PERSISTS
THROUGH 7 PM. BASED ON THIS WILL EXTEND THE HEADLINES TIL 06Z
TONIGHT.
BL CONVERGENCE CLIPS BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
THEREFORE MENTION ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO BECOME
SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
MONDAY A MESO LOW IS SHOWN BY THE NAM40 JUST OFFSHORE VAN BUREN
COUNTY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE SOUTHWEST OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.
THIS CONVERGENCE REMAINS OUTSIDE OF MY AREA FOR MONDAY.
THEN MONDAY NIGHT MORE OF A NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AWAY FROM THE REGION. ON
TUESDAY THE FLOW BACKS AND BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC...WITH WOULD BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN...BUT KEEP THEM RELATIVELY WEAK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONG RANGE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS NW CANADA WILL BUILD SE INTO
OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOTHER
COLD SHOT OF AIR IS ON THE WAY FRIDAY AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MAX
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPS AT NIGHT
COULD DIP DOWN TO WELL BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND IF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD... BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT ANY MAJOR WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...(705 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW BEHIND SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NSH AREA AND HAVE LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
&&
.AVIATION...(705 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH LIMITS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SOME
MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD RETURN TO THE MKG AREA ON
MONDAY IF/WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE NW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR OTTAWA ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM
TONIGHT.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MEADE
AVIATION: MEADE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 182039
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
GOING NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A MODERATING TREND WILL
THEN DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(352 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE LAKESHORE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH AN
OFFSHORE PUSH OF THE SNOWBAND EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WAS CAUSING PROBLEMS ACROSS
THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...AND FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE PERSISTS
THROUGH 7 PM. BASED ON THIS WILL EXTEND THE HEADLINES TIL 06Z
TONIGHT.
BL CONVERGENCE CLIPS BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
THEREFORE MENTION ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO BECOME
SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
MONDAY A MESO LOW IS SHOWN BY THE NAM40 JUST OFFSHORE VAN BUREN
COUNTY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE SOUTHWEST OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.
THIS CONVERGENCE REMAINS OUTSIDE OF MY AREA FOR MONDAY.
THEN MONDAY NIGHT MORE OF A NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AWAY FROM THE REGION. ON
TUESDAY THE FLOW BACKS AND BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC...WITH WOULD BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN...BUT KEEP THE RELATIVELY WEAK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONG RANGE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS NW CANADA WILL BUILD SE INTO
OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOTHER
COLD SHOT OF AIR IS ON THE WAY FRIDAY AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MAX
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPS AT NIGHT
COULD DIP DOWN TO WELL BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND IF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD... BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT ANY MAJOR WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...(350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR FEW MORE HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(1230 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN BUT REDUCTIONS INTO
THE LIFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE FROM
AZO EAST TO BTL AND JXN. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR AS A FAIRLY
NARROW BUT HEAVY BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW DRIFTS SE
TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NW TO
NNE AND A LAND BREEZE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A DOMINANT LES BAND DOWN THE LENGTH
OF LAKE MI. THIS BAND SHOULD STAY FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MKG TAF
SITE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING SINCE THE MOST VIGOROUS LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE FROM BOTH WI AND MI WILL SET UP AT LEAST 10 TO 20
MILES WEST OF MKG.
CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE INTO THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW ESPECIALLY AT SITES FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKES
AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTH TO NNE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(350 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR OTTAWA ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM
TONIGHT.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 181730
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
TAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW WITH IT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF A GRAND HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IN THE SW CWA
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
KGRR-88D CLEARLY SHOWS THAT A TRANSITION TO NW LAKE FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED. ECHOS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ARE LIGHT. HOWEVER FROM MKG
SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGAN COUNTY ECHOS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN SRN LAKE HURON HAS
RESULTED IN NORTH FLOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND CONVERGENT NW
FLOW OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE. COLDER AIR IS ALSO MOVING
OVER THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C PASS BY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
IS CLEARLY DECENT AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW IS RESULTING IN SHSN.
THE QUESTION THEN IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL...AND WHERE.
NAM12 AND RUC40 H8 OMEGA SHOW A BULLSEYE OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FROM SW MUSKEGON COUNTY THROUGH
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN AND INTO KALAMAZOO COUNTY RIGHT NOW...WHICH
HAPPENS TO BE WHERE THE SHSN ARE DEVELOPING. THIS AREA IS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD A BIT OUT OF MUSKEGON COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVE MORE INTO SW ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES EAST THROUGH
KALAMAZOO COUNTY. THAT/S WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL TODAY.
WITH THAT IN MIND WE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
THE SW WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR OTTAWA AND
ALLEGAN AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR KALAMAZOO. WE BUMPED VAN
BUREN INTO A WARNING DUE TO THE HIGHLIGHTED LOW LEVEL OMEGA MOVING
INTO THAT REGION THIS MORNING. PUSHED THE HEADLINES BACK TO 00Z
WHICH MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR VAN BUREN COUNTY AS MAX OMEGA ISN/T
PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH OF THERE UNTIL AFTER 03Z. EXPECT UP TO 6 INCHES
IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND 4 OR SO IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN TONIGHT BUT MAY GET ACTIVE AGAIN OVER VAN
BURN COUNTY MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE ZIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THE
NORTH FLOW PROGD OVER THE LAKE SHOULD PRODUCE A DOMINANT LAKE BAND
MONDAY THAT WILL WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
IT/S POSSIBLE THIS BAND MAY MOVE EAST AND AFFECT VAN BUREN COUNTY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASED POPS IN THAT LOCATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD PUSH BACK OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE FLURRIES AND MODERATING
TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THIS IS WHAT I FEEL FAIRLY SURE WILL HAPPEN... IT WILL WARM UP TO
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING JUST A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WED INTO
THURSDAY. THEN IT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL TURN COLDER THAN NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT... THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS HAPPENS AND HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS WHEN THIS ALL HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION.
AS OF 00Z ON THE 18TH...THAT STRONG PACIFIC POLAR JET IS ALMOST TO
THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH CORE SPEEDS OVER 180
KNOTS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH WHAT TO DO WILL ALL
THIS ENERGY AND PAST HISTORY TELLS ME UNTIL THIS ENERGY GETS INTO
NORTH AMERICA... THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING
THE DETAILS OF THIS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
COLD AIR TO DEPART SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR A TIME DURING MID WEEK.
ALL THE MODELS (AND ENSEMBLES THERE OF) LIKE THE IDEA OF REBUILDING
THE WESTERN RIDGE TO SOME EXTENT AFTER THAT JET ENERGY GETS THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.
THUS THAT SIBERIAN HIGH I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL REACH OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHERE THE PROBLEM
COMES IS THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. THE GFS KEEPS WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON THE POLAR FRONT AND BRING A
SNOWSTORM INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT DO THIS. IT HAS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FARTHER
SOUTH AND HAS A FLAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSING MICHIGAN IN THAT
TIME FRAME. EVEN SO...IT DOES BRING THAT AIR FROM THE SIBERIAN
ARCTIC INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THAT ON SATURDAY LIKE THE GFS
DOES. SO EITHER WAY IT WILL GET VERY COLD AGAIN. MORE A QUESTION OF
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WHILE THE TRANSITION OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL AGAIN POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(1230 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN BUT REDUCTIONS INTO
THE LIFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE FROM
AZO EAST TO BTL AND JXN. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR AS A FAIRLY
NARROW BUT HEAVY BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW DRIFTS SE
TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN.
PREDOMINANTELY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NW TO
NNE AND A LAND BREEZE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A DOMINANT LES BAND DOWN THE LENGTH
OF LAKE MI. THIS BAND SHOULD STAY FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MKG TAF
SITE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING SINCE THE MOST VIGOROUS LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE FROM BOTH WI AND MI WILL SET UP AT LEAST 10 TO 20
MILES WEST OF MKG.
CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE INTO THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW ESPECIALLY AT SITES FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKES
AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTH TO NNE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR OTTAWA ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: 93
AVIATION: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
658 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
TAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW WITH IT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF A GRAND HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IN THE SW CWA
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
KGRR-88D CLEARLY SHOWS THAT A TRANSITION TO NW LAKE FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED. ECHOS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ARE LIGHT. HOWEVER FROM MKG
SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGAN COUNTY ECHOS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN SRN LAKE HURON HAS
RESULTED IN NORTH FLOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND CONVERGENT NW
FLOW OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE. COLDER AIR IS ALSO MOVING
OVER THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C PASS BY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
IS CLEARLY DECENT AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW IS RESULTING IN SHSN.
THE QUESTION THEN IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL...AND WHERE.
NAM12 AND RUC40 H8 OMEGA SHOW A BULLSEYE OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FROM SW MUSKEGON COUNTY THROUGH
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN AND INTO KALAMAZOO COUNTY RIGHT NOW...WHICH
HAPPENS TO BE WHERE THE SHSN ARE DEVELOPING. THIS AREA IS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD A BIT OUT OF MUSKEGON COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVE MORE INTO SW ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES EAST THROUGH
KALAMAZOO COUNTY. THAT/S WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL TODAY.
WITH THAT IN MIND WE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
THE SW WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR OTTAWA AND
ALLEGAN AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR KALAMAZOO. WE BUMPED VAN
BUREN INTO A WARNING DUE TO THE HIGHLIGHTED LOW LEVEL OMEGA MOVING
INTO THAT REGION THIS MORNING. PUSHED THE HEADLINES BACK TO 00Z
WHICH MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR VAN BUREN COUNTY AS MAX OMEGA ISN/T
PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH OF THERE UNTIL AFTER 03Z. EXPECT UP TO 6 INCHES
IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND 4 OR SO IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN TONIGHT BUT MAY GET ACTIVE AGAIN OVER VAN
BURN COUNTY MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE ZIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THE
NORTH FLOW PROGD OVER THE LAKE SHOULD PRODUCE A DOMINANT LAKE BAND
MONDAY THAT WILL WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
IT/S POSSIBLE THIS BAND MAY MOVE EAST AND AFFECT VAN BUREN COUNTY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASED POPS IN THAT LOCATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD PUSH BACK OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE FLURRIES AND MODERATING
TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THIS IS WHAT I FEEL FAIRLY SURE WILL HAPPEN... IT WILL WARM UP TO
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING JUST A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WED INTO
THURSDAY. THEN IT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL TURN COLDER THAN NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT... THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS HAPPENS AND HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS WHEN THIS ALL HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION.
AS OF 00Z ON THE 18TH...THAT STRONG PACIFIC POLAR JET IS ALMOST TO
THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH CORE SPEEDS OVER 180
KNOTS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH WHAT TO DO WILL ALL
THIS ENERGY AND PAST HISTORY TELLS ME UNTIL THIS ENERGY GETS INTO
NORTH AMERICA... THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING
THE DETAILS OF THIS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
COLD AIR TO DEPART SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR A TIME DURING MID WEEK.
ALL THE MODELS (AND ENSEMBLES THERE OF) LIKE THE IDEA OF REBUILDING
THE WESTERN RIDGE TO SOME EXTENT AFTER THAT JET ENERGY GETS THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.
THUS THAT SIBERIAN HIGH I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL REACH OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHERE THE PROBLEM
COMES IS THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. THE GFS KEEPS WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON THE POLAR FRONT AND BRING A
SNOWSTORM INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT DO THIS. IT HAS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FARTHER
SOUTH AND HAS A FLAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSING MICHIGAN IN THAT
TIME FRAME. EVEN SO...IT DOES BRING THAT AIR FROM THE SIBERIAN
ARCTIC INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THAT ON SATURDAY LIKE THE GFS
DOES. SO EITHER WAY IT WILL GET VERY COLD AGAIN. MORE A QUESTION OF
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WHILE THE TRANSITION OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL AGAIN POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(658 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
THE STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY AND AS IS TYPICAL OF THAT
SORT OF SET UP THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWEST 10000 FT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH TIME. EVEN SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LAKE
INSTABILITY PLUS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ROTATES NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. IT IS THAT TROUGH THAT SWINGS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO NNW AND CHANGES THE ORIENTATION OF
THE SNOW SHOWER BANDS. I PUT A PERIOD OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS AT ALL TAF
SITES AROUND MID DAY FOR THAT TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH WITH A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH NORTH WINDS ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS
OR MAY EVEN GO PARTLY CLOUD SINCE NORTH WINDS IN POLAR AIR TEND TO
CLEAR THE SKIES. MKG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION THEY BEING SO CLOSE TO
THE LAKE SHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR OTTAWA ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: 93
AVIATION: WDM
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 180853
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
TAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW WITH IT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF A GRAND HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IN THE SW CWA
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
KGRR-88D CLEARLY SHOWS THAT A TRANSITION TO NW LAKE FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED. ECHOS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ARE LIGHT. HOWEVER FROM MKG
SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGAN COUNTY ECHOS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN SRN LAKE HURON HAS
RESULTED IN NORTH FLOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND CONVERGENT NW
FLOW OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE. COLDER AIR IS ALSO MOVING
OVER THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -17C PASS BY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
IS CLEARLY DECENT AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW IS RESULTING IN SHSN.
THE QUESTION THEN IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL...AND WHERE.
NAM12 AND RUC40 H8 OMEGA SHOW A BULLSEYE OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FROM SW MUSKEGON COUNTY THROUGH
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN AND INTO KALAMAZOO COUNTY RIGHT NOW...WHICH
HAPPENS TO BE WHERE THE SHSN ARE DEVELOPING. THIS AREA IS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD A BIT OUT OF MUSKEGON COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVE MORE INTO SW ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES EAST THROUGH
KALAMAZOO COUNTY. THAT/S WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL TODAY.
WITH THAT IN MIND WE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
THE SW WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR OTTAWA AND
ALLEGAN AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR KALAMAZOO. WE BUMPED VAN
BUREN INTO A WARNING DUE TO THE HIGHLIGHTED LOW LEVEL OMEGA MOVING
INTO THAT REGION THIS MORNING. PUSHED THE HEADLINES BACK TO 00Z
WHICH MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR VAN BUREN COUNTY AS MAX OMEGA ISN/T
PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH OF THERE UNTIL AFTER 03Z. EXPECT UP TO 6 INCHES
IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND 4 OR SO IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN TONIGHT BUT MAY GET ACTIVE AGAIN OVER VAN
BURN COUNTY MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE ZIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THE
NORTH FLOW PROGD OVER THE LAKE SHOULD PRODUCE A DOMINANT LAKE BAND
MONDAY THAT WILL WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
IT/S POSSIBLE THIS BAND MAY MOVE EAST AND AFFECT VAN BUREN COUNTY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASED POPS IN THAT LOCATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD PUSH BACK OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE FLURRIES AND MODERATING
TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THIS IS WHAT I FEEL FAIRLY SURE WILL HAPPEN... IT WILL WARM UP TO
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING JUST A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WED INTO
THURSDAY. THEN IT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL TURN COLDER THAN NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT... THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS HAPPENS AND HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS WHEN THIS ALL HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION.
AS OF 00Z ON THE 18TH...THAT STRONG PACIFIC POLAR JET IS ALMOST TO
THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH CORE SPEEDS OVER 180
KNOTS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH WHAT TO DO WILL ALL
THIS ENERGY AND PAST HISTORY TELLS ME UNTIL THIS ENERGY GETS INTO
NORTH AMERICA... THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING
THE DETAILS OF THIS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
COLD AIR TO DEPART SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR A TIME DURING MID WEEK.
ALL THE MODELS (AND ENSEMBLES THERE OF) LIKE THE IDEA OF REBUILDING
THE WESTERN RIDGE TO SOME EXTENT AFTER THAT JET ENERGY GETS THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.
THUS THAT SIBERIAN HIGH I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL REACH OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHERE THE PROBLEM
COMES IS THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. THE GFS KEEPS WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON THE POLAR FRONT AND BRING A
SNOWSTORM INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT DO THIS. IT HAS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FARTHER
SOUTH AND HAS A FLAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSING MICHIGAN IN THAT
TIME FRAME. EVEN SO...IT DOES BRING THAT AIR FROM THE SIBERIAN
ARCTIC INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THAT ON SATURDAY LIKE THE GFS
DOES. SO EITHER WAY IT WILL GET VERY COLD AGAIN. MORE A QUESTION OF
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WHILE THE TRANSITION OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL AGAIN POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(1210 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
SYSTEM SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST FOR THE MOST PART WITH LAKE EFFECT
ONGOING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN REGARD TO
CEILINGS...THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES OF KAZO...KGRR AND ESPECIALLY
KMKG...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT TIMES. LAKE EFFECT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW EVENING. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW
NIGHT...KMKG MAY BE THE ONLY SITE BEING IMPACTED BY FALLING SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(352 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR OTTAWA ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: 93
AVIATION: DUKE
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 180513
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 BY NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(904 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
UPDATED TO ADD KENT AND OTTAWA TO THE WARNING BASED ON CURRENT
SPOTTER REPORTS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING GREATER THAN 28 DBZ ACROSS
THE WRN CWA WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST AN
INCH PER HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
AND SINK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOLLOWING MAX OMEGA AND VEERING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE NW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AND SNOW BANDS RETREAT TO THE
WEST.
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE ONGOING WINTER STORM AND ITS IMPACTS.
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON...EXTENDING INLAND TO NEAR BIG RAPIDS AND
SPARTA. AS THE WINDS VEER WEST HEAVIER SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
KENT AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO VAN BUREN AND
BARRY COUNTIES TONIGHT. SO FAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY APPROACHING A
FOOT FROM PARTS OF MUSKEGON OCEANA AND MASON COUNTIES...WITH SOME
ROADS IMPASSABLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW HAS BEEN A PROBLEM
ACROSS PARTS OF KENT...GRATIOT...MUSKEGON AND OCEANA COUNTIES TO
NAME A FEW.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR EXPANDED
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS. THE MODELS HAVE
UNDERESTIMATED THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THIS SITUATION AND MAY
STRUGGLE AS WELL INTO SUNDAY.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THEN.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FCST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WE STILL BELIEVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN FACT 12Z MEX GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 19
MAX FOR GRR SATURDAY. HOWEVER 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES STRONG
NW FLOW CAA SATURDAY BEHIND A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE WOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND...
AND HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
&&
.MARINE...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB GALE FORCE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST
OVERNIGHT KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(1210 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009)
SYSTEM SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST FOR THE MOST PART WITH LAKE EFFECT
ONGOING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS...AT LEAST IN REGARD TO
CEILINGS...THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES OF KAZO...KGRR AND ESPECIALLY
KMKG...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT TIMES. LAKE EFFECT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW EVENING. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW
NIGHT...KMKG MAY BE THE ONLY SITE BEING IMPACTED BY FALLING SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A ALLEGAN TO ADA
TO LANSING LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE I94
CORRIDOR.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS 93
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: DUKE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 180205
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
904 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 BY NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(904 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
UPDATED TO ADD KENT AND OTTAWA TO THE WARNING BASED ON CURRENT
SPOTTER REPORTS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING GREATER THAN 28 DBZ ACROSS
THE WRN CWA WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST AN
INCH PER HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
AND SINK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOLLOWING MAX OMEGA AND VEERING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE NW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AND SNOW BANDS RETREAT TO THE
WEST.
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE ONGOING WINTER STORM AND ITS IMPACTS.
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON...EXTENDING INLAND TO NEAR BIG RAPIDS AND
SPARTA. AS THE WINDS VEER WEST HEAVIER SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
KENT AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO VAN BUREN AND
BARRY COUNTIES TONIGHT. SO FAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY APPROACHING A
FOOT FROM PARTS OF MUSKEGON OCEANA AND MASON COUNTIES...WITH SOME
ROADS IMPASSABLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW HAS BEEN A PROBLEM
ACROSS PARTS OF KENT...GRATIOT...MUSKEGON AND OCEANA COUNTIES TO
NAME A FEW.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR EXPANDED
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS. THE MODELS HAVE
UNDERESTIMATED THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THIS SITUATION AND MAY
STRUGGLE AS WELL INTO SUNDAY.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THEN.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FCST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WE STILL BELIEVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN FACT 12Z MEX GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 19
MAX FOR GRR SATURDAY. HOWEVER 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES STRONG
NW FLOW CAA SATURDAY BEHIND A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE WOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND...
AND HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
&&
.MARINE...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB GALE FORCE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST
OVERNIGHT KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(657 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE. EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BEING MORE PREVALENT TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. ON
SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY...KMKG MAY BE THE ONLY SITE AFFECTED. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY THOUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A ALLEGAN TO ADA
TO LANSING LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE I94
CORRIDOR.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS 93
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: DUKE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 172358
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 BY NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE ONGOING WINTER STORM AND ITS IMPACTS.
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON...EXTENDING INLAND TO NEAR BIG RAPIDS AND
SPARTA. AS THE WINDS VEER WEST HEAVIER SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
KENT AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO VAN BUREN AND
BARRY COUNTIES TONIGHT. SO FAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY APPROACHING A
FOOT FROM PARTS OF MUSKEGON OCEANA AND MASON COUNTIES...WITH SOME
ROADS IMPASSABLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW HAS BEEN A PROBLEM
ACROSS PARTS OF KENT...GRATIOT...MUSKEGON AND OCEANA COUNTIES TO
NAME A FEW. RIGHT NOW MUSKEGON AS GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30 MPH.
SO...WILL KEEP THE WARNING AND ADVISORIES RUNNING FOR THE SAME AREAS
AND TIMEFRAME. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR WESTERN KENT AND ALSO
ALLEGAN COUNTIES CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO WARNINGS.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR EXPANDED
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS. THE MODELS HAVE
UNDERESTIMATED THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THIS SITUATION AND MAY
STRUGGLE AS WELL INTO SUNDAY.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THEN.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FCST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WE STILL BELIEVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN FACT 12Z MEX GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 19
MAX FOR GRR SATURDAY. HOWEVER 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES STRONG
NW FLOW CAA SATURDAY BEHIND A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE WOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND...
AND HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
&&
.MARINE...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB GALE FORCE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST
OVERNIGHT KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(657 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE. EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BEING MORE PREVALENT TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. ON
SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY...KMKG MAY BE THE ONLY SITE AFFECTED. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY THOUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A HOLLAND TO
HOWARD CITY TO ALMA LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE I94
CORRIDOR.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: DUKE
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 172104
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 BY NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE ONGOING WINTER STORM AND ITS IMPACTS.
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON...EXTENDING INLAND TO NEAR BIG RAPIDS AND
SPARTA. AS THE WINDS VEER WEST HEAVIER SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
KENT AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO VAN BUREN AND
BARRY COUNTIES TONIGHT. SO FAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY APPROACHING A
FOOT FROM PARTS OF MUSKEGON OCEANA AND MASON COUNTIES...WITH SOME
ROADS IMPASSABLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW HAS BEEN A PROBLEM
ACROSS PARTS OF KENT...GRATIOT...MUSKEGON AND OCEANA COUNTIES TO
NAME A FEW. RIGHT NOW MUSKEGON AS GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30 MPH.
SO...WILL KEEP THE WARNING AND ADVISORIES RUNNING FOR THE SAME AREAS
AND TIMEFRAME. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR WESTERN KENT AND ALSO
ALLEGAN COUNTIES CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO WARNINGS.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR EXPANDED
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS. THE MODELS HAVE
UNDERESTIMATED THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THIS SITUATION AND MAY
STRUGGLE AS WELL INTO SUNDAY.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THEN.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FCST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WE STILL BELIEVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN FACT 12Z MEX GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 19
MAX FOR GRR SATURDAY. HOWEVER 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES STRONG
NW FLOW CAA SATURDAY BEHIND A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE WOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND...
AND HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
&&
.MARINE...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB GALE FORCE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST
OVERNIGHT KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(305 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
IS THE MKG SITE WHERE MAINLY VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THAT
TIME FRAME IN A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW. INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS
INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN STEADIER SNOW
BANDS THAT MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AT GRR.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WNW FLOW SNOW BELT AREAS
INCLUDING MKG AND AZO... POSSIBLY BTL AS WELL. SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(345 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A HOLLAND TO
HOWARD CITY TO ALMA LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE I94
CORRIDOR.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: LAURENS
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: MJS
000
FXUS63 KGRR 172007
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMOUNTS ALONG THE
LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON COULD APPROACH A FOOT. SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 BY NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE MORE ARCTIC AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(120 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND HAS BEEN MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES. EVEN ALONG I94 ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ADD THE I94 CORRIDOR INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
SEVERAL MORE INCHES EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF 6 INCHES
AROUND LDM...SO THE AMOUNTS THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. ALSO ADDED OTTAWA COUNTY INTO THE
WARNING WITH RADAR SHOWING THE STRONGER BAND MOVING INTO THAT COUNTY.
THE SNOW WILL TREND TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS. FLURRIES EXPECTED MONDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW
A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A
TROUGH AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY THAT IS DUE TO THAT VERY STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAK (THAT AT
18Z FRI THE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF JAPAN TO AROUND 150W NEAR 30N)
AND HOW THE MODELS HANDLE IT`S MOVING INTO THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLES AND ALSO
USING DPROG/TD. EACH MODEL AND EACH MODEL RUN (SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW
OF EACH MODEL RUN) HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR HOW THE NEXT PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR COMES IN LATE IN THE WEEK. WHAT DOES REMAIN THE SAME
IS THE AIR THAT BRINGS THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR IS FROM NORTHERN
SIBERIA. AS TYPICAL OF THAT AREA...AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
THERE YESTERDAY WERE FROM -35C TO -55C FROM THE REPORTING WEATHER
STATIONS. ONCE THAT AIR GETS HERE... IT WOULD LIKELY BE EVERY BIT AS
COLD AS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW...MAYBE COLDER. THE QUESTION IS...
WHEN AND HOW DOES IT GET HERE?
OVERALL... THE GENERAL TREND I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT REMAINS TRUE.
THAT IS... THE POLAR JET MOVES EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.
THAT IS THANKS TO THAT EAST ASIAN JET PUSHING THE WESTERN RIDGE EAST
FOR A SHORT TIME. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH... ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THAT WILL KEEP THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
(NOT AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK). 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE
DGZ AND LIFT IN THE CLOUDS ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE I HAVE LOW POPS IN THE
GRIDS... I REALLY BELIEVE THAT IF YOU LIVE WEST OF US-131... YOU
WILL SEE SNOW MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
PUSH WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT BUT THERE IS LITTLE DEEP
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. BEYOND THAT THERE ARE
PHASING ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. IT IS ANYONE`S
GUESS HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(1125 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
SOME WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS GOING ON NEAR CHICAGO. AS WITH CLIPPER
TRACKS THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS...GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(305 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
IS THE MKG SITE WHERE MAINLY VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THAT
TIME FRAME IN A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW. INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS
INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN STEADIER SNOW
BANDS THAT MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AT GRR.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WNW FLOW SNOW BELT AREAS
INCLUDING MKG AND AZO... POSSIBLY BTL AS WELL. SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A HOLLAND TO
HOWARD CITY TO ALMA LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE I94
CORRIDOR.
LM...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93 MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 171823
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
120 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMOUNTS ALONG THE
LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON COULD APPROACH A FOOT. SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 BY NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE MORE ARCTIC AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(120 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND HAS BEEN MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES. EVEN ALONG I94 ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ADD THE I94 CORRIDOR INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
SEVERAL MORE INCHES EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF 6 INCHES
AROUND LDM...SO THE AMOUNTS THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. ALSO ADDED OTTAWA COUNTY INTO THE
WARNING WITH RADAR SHOWING THE STRONGER BAND MOVING INTO THAT COUNTY.
THE SNOW WILL TREND TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS. FLURRIES EXPECTED MONDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW
A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A
TROUGH AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY THAT IS DUE TO THAT VERY STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAK (THAT AT
18Z FRI THE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF JAPAN TO AROUND 150W NEAR 30N)
AND HOW THE MODELS HANDLE IT`S MOVING INTO THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLES AND ALSO
USING DPROG/TD. EACH MODEL AND EACH MODEL RUN (SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW
OF EACH MODEL RUN) HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR HOW THE NEXT PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR COMES IN LATE IN THE WEEK. WHAT DOES REMAIN THE SAME
IS THE AIR THAT BRINGS THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR IS FROM NORTHERN
SIBERIA. AS TYPICAL OF THAT AREA...AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
THERE YESTERDAY WERE FROM -35C TO -55C FROM THE REPORTING WEATHER
STATIONS. ONCE THAT AIR GETS HERE... IT WOULD LIKELY BE EVERY BIT AS
COLD AS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW...MAYBE COLDER. THE QUESTION IS...
WHEN AND HOW DOES IT GET HERE?
OVERALL... THE GENERAL TREND I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT REMAINS TRUE.
THAT IS... THE POLAR JET MOVES EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.
THAT IS THANKS TO THAT EAST ASIAN JET PUSHING THE WESTERN RIDGE EAST
FOR A SHORT TIME. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH... ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THAT WILL KEEP THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
(NOT AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK). 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE
DGZ AND LIFT IN THE CLOUDS ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE I HAVE LOW POPS IN THE
GRIDS... I REALLY BELIEVE THAT IF YOU LIVE WEST OF US-131... YOU
WILL SEE SNOW MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
PUSH WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT BUT THERE IS LITTLE DEEP
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. BEYOND THAT THERE ARE
PHASING ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. IT IS ANYONE`S
GUESS HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(1125 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
SOME WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS GOING ON NEAR CHICAGO. AS WITH CLIPPER
TRACKS THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS...GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(100 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS INTO THE VLIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS... ESPECIALLY AT THE MKG
AND GRR SITES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WNW FLOW SNOW BELT AREAS
INCLUDING MKG AND AZO... POSSIBLY BTL AS WELL. SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A HOLLAND TO
HOWARD CITY TO ALMA LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE I94
CORRIDOR.
LM...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93 MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: 93
000
FXUS63 KGRR 171803
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 30 BY NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE MORE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(1125 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND HAS BEEN MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES. EVEN ALONG I94 ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ADD THE I94 CORRIDOR INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
SEVERAL MORE INCHES EXPECTED. ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF 6 INCHES
AROUND LDM...SO WILL BE INCREASING AMOUNTS THERE WITH THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE.
THE SNOW WILL TREND TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS. FLURRIES EXPECTED MONDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW
A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A
TROUGH AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY THAT IS DUE TO THAT VERY STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAK (THAT AT
18Z FRI THE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF JAPAN TO AROUND 150W NEAR 30N)
AND HOW THE MODELS HANDLE IT`S MOVING INTO THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLES AND ALSO
USING DPROG/TD. EACH MODEL AND EACH MODEL RUN (SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW
OF EACH MODEL RUN) HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR HOW THE NEXT PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR COMES IN LATE IN THE WEEK. WHAT DOES REMAIN THE SAME
IS THE AIR THAT BRINGS THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR IS FROM NORTHERN
SIBERIA. AS TYPICAL OF THAT AREA...AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
THERE YESTERDAY WERE FROM -35C TO -55C FROM THE REPORTING WEATHER
STATIONS. ONCE THAT AIR GETS HERE... IT WOULD LIKELY BE EVERY BIT AS
COLD AS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW...MAYBE COLDER. THE QUESTION IS...
WHEN AND HOW DOES IT GET HERE?
OVERALL... THE GENERAL TREND I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT REMAINS TRUE.
THAT IS... THE POLAR JET MOVES EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.
THAT IS THANKS TO THAT EAST ASIAN JET PUSHING THE WESTERN RIDGE EAST
FOR A SHORT TIME. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH... ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THAT WILL KEEP THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
(NOT AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK). 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE
DGZ AND LIFT IN THE CLOUDS ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE I HAVE LOW POPS IN THE
GRIDS... I REALLY BELIEVE THAT IF YOU LIVE WEST OF US-131... YOU
WILL SEE SNOW MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
PUSH WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT BUT THERE IS LITTLE DEEP
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. BEYOND THAT THERE ARE
PHASING ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. IT IS ANYONE`S
GUESS HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(1125 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
SOME WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS GOING ON NEAR CHICAGO. AS WITH CLIPPER
TRACKS THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS...GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(100 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS INTO THE VLIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS... ESPECIALLY AT THE MKG
AND GRR SITES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WNW FLOW SNOW BELT AREAS
INCLUDING MKG AND AZO... POSSIBLY BTL AS WELL. SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(402 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009)
ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR EVART WHERE AN ICE JAM
IS CAUSING THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH
CONTINUED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ANYONE LIVING NEAR RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAMS
AND POTENTIAL RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ON THE RIVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO
ALMA LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE I94
CORRIDOR.
LM...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: 93 MJS
SHORT TERM: MJS
LONG TERM: WDM
MARINE: MJS
AVIATION: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: 93
| 
