000
FXUS63 KGLD 200937
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THURSDAY NIGHT.
LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE MID TEENS
PRODUCING MAX TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.
TODAY`S TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WED/THU. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OR IN THE MID 20S.
RH VALUES FALL AOB CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WITHOUT WIND EXCEEDING 25 MPH THERE SHOULD NOT
BE ANY POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FIRE HIGHLIGHT TODAY.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD FREE SKIES OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE FOR KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH 12Z WED.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KGLD 192119
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
217 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009
STAGNATED MERIDIONAL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A DEEPENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE KICKED UP A LARGE PLUME OF DUST/DIRT OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. THIS PLUME IS SLOW ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
FOLTZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
217 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN FROPA AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY.
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO CALM BY THE START OF THE FIRST PERIOD WHICH
SHOULD BRING BLOWING DIRT THREAT TO AN END. CONTEMPLATED KEEPING
MENTION OF IT IN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS BUT FEEL THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST SO OPTED TO LEAVE OUT. WILL SEE TEMPS RAPIDLY
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY WITH 70 DEGREES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHICH RESULTS
IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING UNDER 15 KTS. RH VALUES WILL BE PUSHING THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT WIND SPEEDS WON`T BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL SEE
ALMOST A CARBON COPY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY. A FEW RECORDS HIGHS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY IF
CURRENT FORECAST PANS OUT ESPECIALLY YUMA...BURLINGTON AND
TRIBUNE.
12Z/19 GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MUCH SLOWER WITH REGARD TO FROPA. THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE WAS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EC NOW HOLD OFF ON
FROPA UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT SHIFT`S TREND OF WARMING THURSDAY MAX TEMPS. FEEL THEY
MAY STILL NEED FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT BUT WANTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN COLLABORATION GUIDELINES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
FAIRLY STRONG ARCTIC PUSH FOLLOWS THE FROPA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPS LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN CONCERNS OVER EXACT
FROPA TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE ON
FRIDAY. EC 295-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE MODERATE UPGLIDE
WILL BE UNDERWAY BY 00Z SATURDAY ADVECTING MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND
3 G/KG INTO THE REGION. WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
BELOW 10 MB...BUMPED POPS TO HIGH SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE QUITE A
SPREAD IN MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST
PORTIONS IN THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE SOUTHWEST REACHES THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50. RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES EAST AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACTS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
BROADBRUSHED HIGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
H85 TEMPS PLUNGED INTO THE -10 C RANGE SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY.
FOLTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
1047 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AFTER 2230Z-2300Z BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY LATE IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE ON TUESDAY, BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191747
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 421 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE
THAT MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOME BY
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH WED NIGHT.
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. THE MCCOOK PROFILER IS SHOWING
45KTS AT THE LOWEST GATE THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THAT AROUND 45 KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 31KTS OR 35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL.
700MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR
OUTCOME TODAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. THINK THAT CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY SHOULD HANDLE THE SITUATION.
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 C WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING THE
THE FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOME ON THURSDAY SO WILL BUMP MAX
TEMPERATURES UP.
WIND AND RH CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED. CURRENT
WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK. DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1047 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTEROON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AFTER 2230Z-2300Z BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY LATE IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE ON TUESDAY, BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191121
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOME
BY THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH WED NIGHT.
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. THE MCCOOK PROFILER IS SHOWING
45KTS AT THE LOWEST GATE THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THAT AROUND 45 KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 31KTS OR 35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL.
700MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR
OUTCOME TODAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. THINK THAT CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY SHOULD HANDLE THE SITUATION.
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 C WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING THE
THE FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOME ON THURSDAY SO WILL BUMP MAX
TEMPERATURES UP.
WIND AND RH CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED. CURRENT
WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK. DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
420 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30G45KT RANGE AT
BOTH SITES ONCE AGAIN UNDER PERHAPS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
BURTIS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-
041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191007
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOME
BY THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH WED NIGHT.
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. THE MCCOOK PROFILER IS SHOWING
45KTS AT THE LOWEST GATE THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THAT AROUND 45 KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 31KTS OR 35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL.
700MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR
OUTCOME TODAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. THINK THAT CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY SHOULD HANDLE THE SITUATION.
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 C WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING THE
THE FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOME ON THURSDAY SO WILL BUMP MAX
TEMPERATURES UP.
WIND AND RH CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED. CURRENT
WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK. DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
307 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30G45KT RANGE AT
BOTH SITES ONCE AGAIN UNDER PERHAPS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-
041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KGLD 190247
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR MONDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009/
.SYNOPSIS...
228 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUATION OF HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOST AREAS EASILY REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS. RH VALUES HAVE HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE REGION AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
FOLTZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
228 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND CONTINUE WIND AND
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD
TEMPS ON TUESDAY THEN FROPA AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 25 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO
THE MID TEENS C. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY NEAR
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO REDEVELOP ON MONDAY OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME GEOGRAPHIC AREA AS
TODAY. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA BASED ON NAM/GFS BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. COULD SEE
BORDERLINE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
NEAR RECORD TEMPS APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD ON THE REGION. WESTERLY
DOWN SLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM H85 TEMPS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TUESDAY.
MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS. COULD SEE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW AS EXACT TIMING OF FROPA IS IN DOUBT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER EC WHICH HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE EC AND GFS 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES
DEPICT MODERATE UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO FALL BELOW 10 MB LENDING ADDED
SUPPORT TO OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP. WILL SEE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. FASTER GFS WOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT AGAIN FOLLOWED THE SLOWER EC WHICH KEEPS PRECIP
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOLTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
420 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS MIXING
DECREASES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS AT 20-25K FT. BY
16-17Z WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE 30G45KT RANGE AT BOTH
SITES ONCE AGAIN UNDER PERHAPS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
07
&&
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS63 KGLD 182320
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009/
.SYNOPSIS...
228 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUATION OF HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOST AREAS EASILY REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS. RH VALUES HAVE HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE REGION AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
FOLTZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
228 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND CONTINUE WIND AND
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD
TEMPS ON TUESDAY THEN FROPA AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 25 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO
THE MID TEENS C. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY NEAR
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO REDEVELOP ON MONDAY OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME GEOGRAPHIC AREA AS
TODAY. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA BASED ON NAM/GFS BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. COULD SEE
BORDERLINE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
NEAR RECORD TEMPS APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD ON THE REGION. WESTERLY
DOWN SLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM H85 TEMPS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TUESDAY.
MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS. COULD SEE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW AS EXACT TIMING OF FROPA IS IN DOUBT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER EC WHICH HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE EC AND GFS 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES
DEPICT MODERATE UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO FALL BELOW 10 MB LENDING ADDED
SUPPORT TO OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP. WILL SEE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. FASTER GFS WOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT AGAIN FOLLOWED THE SLOWER EC WHICH KEEPS PRECIP
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOLTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
420 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS MIXING
DECREASES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS AT 20-25K FT. BY
16-17Z WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE 30G45KT RANGE AT BOTH
SITES ONCE AGAIN UNDER PERHAPS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
07
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 182131
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
228 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUATION OF HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOST AREAS EASILY REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS. RH VALUES HAVE HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE REGION AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
FOLTZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
228 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND CONTINUE WIND AND
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD
TEMPS ON TUESDAY THEN FROPA AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 25 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO
THE MID TEENS C. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY NEAR
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO REDEVELOP ON MONDAY OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME GEOGRAPHIC AREA AS
TODAY. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA BASED ON NAM/GFS BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. COULD SEE
BORDERLINE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
NEAR RECORD TEMPS APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE REALLY TAKES HOLD ON THE REGION. WESTERLY
DOWN SLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM H85 TEMPS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TUESDAY.
MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS. COULD SEE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED NORMAL
DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW AS EXACT TIMING OF FROPA IS IN DOUBT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER EC WHICH HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE EC AND GFS 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES
DEPICT MODERATE UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO FALL BELOW 10 MB LENDING ADDED
SUPPORT TO OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP. WILL SEE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. FASTER GFS WOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT AGAIN FOLLOWED THE SLOWER EC WHICH KEEPS PRECIP
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOLTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
437 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
40KTS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY BEFORE RELAXING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN BY 15Z MONDAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40KTS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 181140
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
440 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES...WIND...AND FIRE
WEATHER.
A STAGNANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE OVER THE WEST EXTENDS FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO OLD MEXICO...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SPINS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IT WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. GIVEN THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS HAS LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONGEST AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND 21Z. IN
ADDITION...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS YIELD RH VALUES
OF 15% OR LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
REACHED. THE SCENARIO IS MORE OR LESS REPEATED ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE SAME AREAS. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A REPEAT BUT TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
437 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STOP GUSTING NEAR
00Z BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
BULLER
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013-014.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-
041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-080.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 180901
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES...WIND...AND FIRE
WEATHER.
A STAGNANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE OVER THE WEST EXTENDS FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO OLD MEXICO...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SPINS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IT WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. GIVEN THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS HAS LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONGEST AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND 21Z. IN
ADDITION...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS YIELD RH VALUES
OF 15% OR LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
REACHED. THE SCENARIO IS MORE OR LESS REPEATED ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE SAME AREAS. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A REPEAT BUT TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
1040 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS DURING THIS TIME. MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY AND
LOSE THERE GUSTINESS IN THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.
BULLER
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013-014.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-
041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-080.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 180542
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
135 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUATION OF WEST COAST
RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH MID/UPPER PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
MEAN FLOW FOR THE PAST WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRAILING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
FOLTZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
135 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS AND POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN
SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH COULD BRING
PRECIP TO THE AREA.
WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 10 C SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...COULD
SEE BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES FALL TO BELOW
20 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIRMASS AND
DOWN SLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ON MONDAY AS COMPARED TO TOMORROW. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
WITH REGARD TO THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS TEMPS APPROACH
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. APPEARS GOODLAND`S RECORD WILL BE SAFE AS IT`S
77 BUT COLBY AND MCCOOK BOTH HAVE RECORD HIGHS OF 71 DEGREES. RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD OVER THE COLORADO
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. WILL SEE ONE MORE NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE EC SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER MID/UPPER
TROUGH. BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT SENDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BRUNT OF ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN
STAYS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND WARMER IN THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
12Z/17 EC 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS MODERATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ADVECTING 3 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS INTO THE AREA. WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
TO AROUND 30 MB...WOULD EXPECT TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
SO INSERTED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPEARS
HEADED FOR THE REGION BY SUNDAY WHICH IS BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
FOLTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
1040 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS DURING THIS TIME. MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY AND
LOSE THERE GUSTINESS IN THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.
BULLER
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 172330
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
135 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUATION OF WEST COAST
RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH MID/UPPER PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
MEAN FLOW FOR THE PAST WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRAILING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
FOLTZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
135 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS AND POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN
SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH COULD BRING
PRECIP TO THE AREA.
WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 10 C SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...COULD
SEE BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES FALL TO BELOW
20 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIRMASS AND
DOWN SLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ON MONDAY AS COMPARED TO TOMORROW. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
WITH REGARD TO THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS TEMPS APPROACH
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. APPEARS GOODLAND`S RECORD WILL BE SAFE AS IT`S
77 BUT COLBY AND MCCOOK BOTH HAVE RECORD HIGHS OF 71 DEGREES. RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD OVER THE COLORADO
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. WILL SEE ONE MORE NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE EC SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER MID/UPPER
TROUGH. BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT SENDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BRUNT OF ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN
STAYS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND WARMER IN THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
12Z/17 EC 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS MODERATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ADVECTING 3 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS INTO THE AREA. WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
TO AROUND 30 MB...WOULD EXPECT TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
SO INSERTED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPEARS
HEADED FOR THE REGION BY SUNDAY WHICH IS BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
FOLTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
430 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINDS
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ONCE AGAIN. THE TWO TERMINALS WILL SEE SUSTAINED NEAR 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTING AROUND 30 KNOTS.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 172131
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
135 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUATION OF WEST COAST
RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH MID/UPPER PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
MEAN FLOW FOR THE PAST WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRAILING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
FOLTZ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
135 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS AND POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN
SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH COULD BRING
PRECIP TO THE AREA.
WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 10 C SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...COULD
SEE BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES FALL TO BELOW
20 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIRMASS AND
DOWN SLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ON MONDAY AS COMPARED TO TOMORROW. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
WITH REGARD TO THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS TEMPS APPROACH
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. APPEARS GOODLAND`S RECORD WILL BE SAFE AS IT`S
77 BUT COLBY AND MCCOOK BOTH HAVE RECORD HIGHS OF 71 DEGREES. RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD OVER THE COLORADO
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. WILL SEE ONE MORE NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE EC SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER MID/UPPER
TROUGH. BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT SENDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BRUNT OF ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN
STAYS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND WARMER IN THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
12Z/17 EC 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS MODERATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ADVECTING 3 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS INTO THE AREA. WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING
TO AROUND 30 MB...WOULD EXPECT TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
SO INSERTED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPEARS
HEADED FOR THE REGION BY SUNDAY WHICH IS BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
FOLTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
1030 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH MCK AND
GLD LOOK TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 26KTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY SUNSET. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
JRM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
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