000
FXUS62 KFFC 200937 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE THE OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING... HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THEREFORE PLAN TO ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GA TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE... REMEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY... AND SLICKS
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS
ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH AND THESE GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO NEAR 35 MPH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN EFFECT FROM 7
AM THROUGH 7 PM TODAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES FURTHER
UP THE EAST COAST. A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL MILD DAY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THE RESULTING LIGHT SW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW A
NICE WARM-UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE VERY CLOSE FOR A CHANGE...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
END OF THE WORK WEEK. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH
LACK OF INSTABILITIES AND UPPER SUPPORT HERE. PREFER THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES NIL THRU
SUNDAY...THEN INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INDICATING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
FOUR HOURS OR MORE IN SOME AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE 10 PERCENT...BUT SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
POTENTIAL A RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY IF FUEL MOISTURES CAN
DRY ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SOME LOWER VFR CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH 3000-4000 FT MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SOME
AMOUNT OF HIGHER CLOUDS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS ANY
LEFTOVER SNOW THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY NW
10-20G30KTS. BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 41 20 45 24 56 / 20 0 0 5 5
ATLANTA 38 21 45 28 57 / 20 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 32 16 42 19 51 / 20 0 0 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 36 19 42 20 54 / 20 0 0 5 5
COLUMBUS 43 24 51 25 60 / 10 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 37 20 44 26 53 / 20 0 0 5 5
MACON 43 21 51 23 59 / 10 0 0 5 5
ROME 37 20 46 19 56 / 20 0 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 38 19 45 17 58 / 10 0 0 5 5
VIDALIA 45 23 50 24 58 / 10 0 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...
BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
39
000
FXUS62 KFFC 200823
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE THE OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING... HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THEREFORE PLAN TO ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GA TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE... REMEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY... AND SLICKS
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS
ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH AND THESE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE
TO NEAR 35 MPH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THROUGH
7 PM TODAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST
COAST. A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
BEAUTIFUL MILD DAY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
THE RESULTING LIGHT SW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW A NICE WARM-UP INTO
THE 50S AND 60S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WERE VERY CLOSE FOR A CHANGE...SO LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
END OF THE WORK WEEK. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH
LACK OF INSTABILITIES AND UPPER SUPPORT HERE. PREFER THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES NIL THRU
SUNDAY...THEN INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INDICATING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
FOUR HOURS OR MORE IN SOME AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE 10 PERCENT...BUT SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
POTENTIAL A RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY IF FUEL MOISTURES CAN
DRY ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 41 20 45 24 56 / 20 0 0 5 5
ATLANTA 38 21 45 28 57 / 20 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 32 16 42 19 51 / 20 0 0 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 36 19 42 20 54 / 20 0 0 5 5
COLUMBUS 43 24 51 25 60 / 10 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 37 20 44 26 53 / 20 0 0 5 5
MACON 43 21 51 23 59 / 10 0 0 5 5
ROME 37 20 46 19 56 / 20 0 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 38 19 45 17 58 / 10 0 0 5 5
VIDALIA 45 23 50 24 58 / 10 0 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...
BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
39
000
FXUS62 KFFC 200039 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST GA THIS
EVENING...WITH RADAR ECHOES UP TO 28 DBZ IN SPOTS AND A FEW SITES
INDICATING 3-4SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SNOW...SUGGESTING
THAT IT IS COMING DOWN AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. TEMPERATURES DROPPING
RAPIDLY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP...INTO THE
MID 30S. THUS...INITIALLY PRECIP MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...BUT
SHOULD PRETTY QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING.
UPDATED FORECAST TO SHIFT LIKELY POPS TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF NORTH
GA...AND EXPANDED THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN INTO THE NORTH SIDE
OF ATLANTA TOWARD THE GAINESVILLE AREA...MOSTLY ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND REPORTS OF AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN SEVERAL HIGHER ELEVATION
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
RRH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS WEAKER THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES SO
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH 7AM
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST GEORGIA JUST AS THE
MOISTURE IS EXITING THAT AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SURFACE LOW TREKS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING...TO OVER THE CAROLINAS AT 06Z AND OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW MORNING. TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
HELPFUL THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT THE COOLER MET OR A MAV/MET BLEND
SEEMS IN LINE WITH FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THAT WORKS OUT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE FRONT ENTERS
NORTHWEST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. GFS IN LINE
WITH CANADIAN KEEPING THE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUES
MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. WITH HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WE COULD SEE INCREASED
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP.
.AVIATION /7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY/...
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO SC CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH GEORGIA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR
BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THE ATL METRO AND AHN TAF SITES. SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...
AND DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 30KTS WILL BE WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 28 39 20 45 25 / 40 20 5 5 5
ATLANTA 25 36 21 44 28 / 20 10 5 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 24 25 16 41 19 / 70 20 0 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 24 35 20 42 20 / 20 10 5 5 5
COLUMBUS 32 41 22 51 26 / 10 10 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 28 35 21 43 26 / 40 20 5 5 5
MACON 32 43 22 50 24 / 10 10 5 5 5
ROME 24 37 21 47 20 / 20 10 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 25 37 21 46 17 / 10 10 5 5 5
VIDALIA 32 44 23 49 20 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
12/16
000
FXUS62 KFFC 192212
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
510 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS WEAKER THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES SO
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH 7AM
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST GEORGIA JUST AS THE
MOISTURE IS EXITING THAT AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SURFACE LOW TREKS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING...TO OVER THE CAROLINAS AT 06Z AND OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW MORNING. TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
HELPFUL THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT THE COOLER MET OR A MAV/MET BLEND
SEEMS IN LINE WITH FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THAT WORKS OUT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE FRONT ENTERS
NORTHWEST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. GFS IN LINE
WITH CANADIAN KEEPING THE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUES
MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. WITH HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WE COULD SEE INCREASED
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP.
.AVIATION /7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY/...
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO SC CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH GEORGIA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR
BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THE ATL METRO AND AHN TAF SITES. SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...
AND DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 30KTS WILL BE WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 28 39 20 45 25 / 40 20 5 5 5
ATLANTA 25 36 21 44 28 / 20 10 5 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 24 25 16 41 19 / 70 20 0 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 24 35 20 42 20 / 20 10 5 5 5
COLUMBUS 32 41 22 51 26 / 10 10 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 28 35 21 43 26 / 40 20 5 5 5
MACON 32 43 22 50 24 / 10 10 5 5 5
ROME 24 37 21 47 20 / 20 10 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 25 37 21 46 17 / 10 10 5 5 5
VIDALIA 32 44 23 49 20 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
12/16
000
FXUS62 KFFC 192026
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS WEAKER THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES SO
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH 7AM
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST GEORGIA JUST AS THE
MOISTURE IS EXITING THAT AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SURFACE LOW TREKS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING...TO OVER THE CAROLINAS AT 06Z AND OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW MORNING. TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
HELPFUL THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT THE COOLER MET OR A MAV/MET BLEND
SEEMS IN LINE WITH FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THAT WORKS OUT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE FRONT ENTERS
NORTHWEST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON SUNDAY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. GFS IN LINE
WITH CANADIAN KEEPING THE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUES
MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. WITH HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WE COULD SEE INCREASED
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 28 39 20 45 25 / 40 20 5 5 5
ATLANTA 25 36 21 44 28 / 20 10 5 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 24 25 16 41 19 / 70 20 0 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 24 35 20 42 20 / 20 10 5 5 5
COLUMBUS 32 41 22 51 26 / 10 10 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 28 35 21 43 26 / 40 20 5 5 5
MACON 32 43 22 50 24 / 10 10 5 5 5
ROME 24 37 21 47 20 / 20 10 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 25 37 21 46 17 / 10 10 5 5 5
VIDALIA 32 44 23 49 20 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS62 KFFC 191028 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NAM INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF CLOUDS/RH AND QPF
FIELDS NORTH OF THE STATE...AND JUST SEEMS A BIT MORE REASONABLE
WITH TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARRIVING TO NORTH GEORGIA BY 18Z
TODAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA
BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE FRONT AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
STATE. THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH
AMPLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT BRINGING A THREAT OF
WINTRY PRECIP TO NORTH GA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTH GA LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GA
COULD BEGIN BY 4 PM AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD... SO WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND POST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GA FROM 4 PM
TODAY THRU 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SNOW THREAT END
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE ADVISED AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT PULLS OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THE SNOW ENDS BEFORE 7 AM...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SO ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WOULD REMAIN SLICK THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...COULD SEE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THREATENING TO TRAVEL...SO WILL
HANDLE THESE AREAS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. OTHERWISE...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY. THE MAV AND MET HIGHS AND LOWS WERE CLOSE SO
DID NOT STRAY FAR BEGINNING TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP OUT AHEAD AND PUSHING INTO NW GA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NOW ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDY...COLD
CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...THEN SHOULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH TEMP PROFILES AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT METRO ATLANTA TAFS BUT SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
MAJOR...MAINLY FLURRIES. SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WINDS ARE ANOTHER ISSUE AS STRONG GRADIENT WILL START
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OVER 20KT INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 51 31 39 21 47 / 20 40 20 5 5
ATLANTA 50 26 36 22 46 / 20 20 10 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 39 25 33 16 40 / 50 60 20 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 46 25 37 18 43 / 20 20 10 5 5
COLUMBUS 55 34 42 24 50 / 10 10 10 5 5
GAINESVILLE 47 29 37 20 43 / 30 40 20 5 5
MACON 55 33 43 22 51 / 10 10 10 5 5
ROME 45 30 38 20 45 / 20 20 10 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 52 30 36 18 47 / 10 20 10 5 5
VIDALIA 58 36 43 26 50 / 10 10 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
LUMPKIN...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
39/TDP
000
FXUS62 KFFC 190852
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NAM INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF CLOUDS/RH AND QPF
FIELDS NORTH OF THE STATE...AND JUST SEEMS A BIT MORE REASONABLE
WITH TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARRIVING TO NORTH GEORGIA BY 18Z
TODAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA
BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE FRONT AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
STATE. THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH
AMPLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT BRINGING A THREAT OF
WINTRY PRECIP TO NORTH GA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTH GA LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GA
COULD BEGIN BY 4 PM AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD... SO WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND POST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GA FROM 4 PM
TODAY THRU 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SNOW THREAT END
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE ADVISED AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT PULLS OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THE SNOW ENDS BEFORE 7 AM...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SO ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WOULD REMAIN SLICK THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...COULD SEE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THREATENING TO TRAVEL...SO WILL
HANDLE THESE AREAS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. OTHERWISE...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY. THE MAV AND MET HIGHS AND LOWS WERE CLOSE SO
DID NOT STRAY FAR BEGINNING TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP OUT AHEAD AND PUSHING INTO NW GA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NOW ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDY...COLD
CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 51 31 39 21 47 / 20 40 20 5 5
ATLANTA 50 26 36 22 46 / 20 20 10 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 39 25 33 16 40 / 50 60 20 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 46 25 37 18 43 / 20 20 10 5 5
COLUMBUS 55 34 42 24 50 / 10 10 10 5 5
GAINESVILLE 47 29 37 20 43 / 30 40 20 5 5
MACON 55 33 43 22 51 / 10 10 10 5 5
ROME 45 30 38 20 45 / 20 20 10 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 52 30 36 18 47 / 10 20 10 5 5
VIDALIA 58 36 43 26 50 / 10 10 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
LUMPKIN...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
39
000
FXUS62 KFFC 190305 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1004 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
FIRST PERIOD OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THROUGH MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH
THE ATLANTA AREA AROUND 00Z AS PER THE 00Z NAM. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW...THAT MODELS H8 TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM FOR FROZEN PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DROP H8 TEMPS NORTH OF AN ATHENS-ATLANTA-CARROLLTON LINE TO
-4C OR COLDER AROUND 03Z...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE 18Z GFS IS A
COUPLE DEGREES COLDER AND DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW QPF GENERALLY IN THE 0.05-0.10 INCH RANGE OVER NORTH
GA MONDAY EVENING. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE OVER THE NORTH GA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MEASURABLE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF ATLANTA AND ATHENS.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
RRH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST
ONE IS EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT ONE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND A THIRD ONE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...GFS IS A
BIT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE IMPULSE. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS REINFORCED WITH A SECOND COLD
FRONT TOMORROW EVENING...SHORT NAM/GFS DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. GFS BRINGS MORE OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER ROUND MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE NORTH GEORGIA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW EVENING
TAPERING TO FLURRIES BY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH EITHER EVENT...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA AS WELL AS GAINESVILLE. ON TUESDAY A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR SO TONIGHT...AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING WHICH ALSO POINTS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES NORTH GEORGIA. STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA WITH GFS
LAGGING THE ECMWF...BUT EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY - SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS
VERY LOW. HAVE OPTED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AS FRONT COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN LIFT
OUT. A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL DIVE SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH TUE. ONE EXITED THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH THE
STRONGEST SLATED FOR EARLY TUE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT SLGT CHC -SHSN/SHRA ATL AREA...WITH CHC -SHSN NE MOUNTAINS
DURING THESE PERIODS...BUT TUE MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD FOR ANY THREAT OF -SHSN IN THE ATL AREA. CEILINGS...AREA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW BETWEEN SYSTEMS. EXPECT
MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE 06Z AS NEXT UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPS TOWARD THE AREA BY MORNING. GFS SHOWS IFR CIGS BY 12Z.
NAM DOES NOT. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 010 LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON...THEN MVFR AT WORSE FOR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6SM -SHRA BR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY MON
ACROSS N GA IN ADVANCE OF STRONG FRONT. WX...A PROB30 FOR -SHRA
APPEARS REASONABLE FOR MON...STAY 12Z-15Z. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH ATL-AHN
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW SUPPORT FOR -SHSN
IN THE AFTERNOON MON...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR -SHSN AROUND
12Z TUE WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT. AT
ANY RATE...NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OVERNIGHT...AND DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET...GENERALLY 5-10KT OVERNIGHT.
STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS INDICATED BY MON AFTN BEHIND THE
FRONT...CONTINUING WELL INTO TUE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTS TO
30KTS ARE LIKELY LATE MON-TUE...SUPPORTED BY VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 33 47 29 41 21 / 10 10 10 10 5
ATLANTA 34 46 25 37 23 / 10 10 10 10 5
BLAIRSVILLE 30 38 25 31 18 / 20 20 20 20 5
CARTERSVILLE 34 41 24 38 19 / 10 10 10 10 5
COLUMBUS 38 52 31 44 24 / 5 5 5 10 5
GAINESVILLE 32 43 28 38 21 / 10 10 10 10 5
MACON 38 52 31 45 22 / 5 5 10 10 5
ROME 32 45 29 37 21 / 10 10 20 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 32 45 27 38 20 / 10 10 10 10 5
VIDALIA 37 55 29 43 21 / 10 5 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12/19
000
FXUS62 KFFC 182218
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST
ONE IS EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT ONE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND A THIRD ONE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...GFS IS A
BIT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE IMPULSE. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS REINFORCED WITH A SECOND COLD
FRONT TOMORROW EVENING...SHORT NAM/GFS DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. GFS BRINGS MORE OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER ROUND MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE NORTH GEORGIA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW EVENING
TAPERING TO FLURRIES BY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH EITHER EVENT...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA AS WELL AS GAINESVILLE. ON TUESDAY A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR SO TONIGHT...AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING WHICH ALSO POINTS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES NORTH GEORGIA. STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA WITH GFS
LAGGING THE ECMWF...BUT EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY - SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS
VERY LOW. HAVE OPTED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AS FRONT COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN LIFT
OUT. A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL DIVE SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH TUE. ONE EXITED THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH THE
STRONGEST SLATED FOR EARLY TUE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT SLGT CHC -SHSN/SHRA ATL AREA...WITH CHC -SHSN NE MOUNTAINS
DURING THESE PERIODS...BUT TUE MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD FOR ANY THREAT OF -SHSN IN THE ATL AREA. CEILINGS...AREA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW BETWEEN SYSTEMS. EXPECT
MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE 06Z AS NEXT UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPS TOWARD THE AREA BY MORNING. GFS SHOWS IFR CIGS BY 12Z.
NAM DOES NOT. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 010 LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON...THEN MVFR AT WORSE FOR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6SM -SHRA BR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY MON
ACROSS N GA IN ADVANCE OF STRONG FRONT. WX...A PROB30 FOR -SHRA
APPEARS REASONABLE FOR MON...STAY 12Z-15Z. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH ATL-AHN
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW SUPPORT FOR -SHSN
IN THE AFTERNOON MON...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR -SHSN AROUND
12Z TUE WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT. AT
ANY RATE...NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OVERNIGHT...AND DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET...GENERALLY 5-10KT OVERNIGHT.
STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS INDICATED BY MON AFTN BEHIND THE
FRONT...CONTINUING WELL INTO TUE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTS TO
30KTS ARE LIKELY LATE MON-TUE...SUPPORTED BY VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 33 47 29 41 21 / 10 10 10 10 5
ATLANTA 34 46 25 37 23 / 10 10 10 10 5
BLAIRSVILLE 30 38 25 31 18 / 20 20 20 20 5
CARTERSVILLE 34 41 24 38 19 / 10 10 10 10 5
COLUMBUS 38 52 31 44 24 / 5 5 5 10 5
GAINESVILLE 32 43 28 38 21 / 10 10 10 10 5
MACON 38 52 31 45 22 / 5 5 10 10 5
ROME 32 45 29 37 21 / 10 10 20 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 32 45 27 38 20 / 10 10 10 10 5
VIDALIA 37 55 29 43 21 / 10 5 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12/19
000
FXUS62 KFFC 182006
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST
ONE IS EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT ONE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND A THIRD ONE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...GFS IS A
BIT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE IMPULSE. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS REINFORCED WITH A SECOND COLD
FRONT TOMORROW EVENING...SHORT NAM/GFS DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. GFS BRINGS MORE OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER ROUND MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE NORTH GEORGIA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW EVENING
TAPERING TO FLURRIES BY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH EITHER EVENT...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA AS WELL AS GAINESVILLE. ON TUESDAY A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR SO TONIGHT...AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING WHICH ALSO POINTS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES NORTH GEORGIA. STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA WITH GFS
LAGGING THE ECMWF...BUT EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY - SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS
VERY LOW. HAVE OPTED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AS FRONT COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 33 47 29 41 21 / 10 10 10 10 5
ATLANTA 34 46 25 37 23 / 10 10 10 10 5
BLAIRSVILLE 30 38 25 31 18 / 20 20 20 20 5
CARTERSVILLE 34 41 24 38 19 / 10 10 10 10 5
COLUMBUS 38 52 31 44 24 / 5 5 5 10 5
GAINESVILLE 32 43 28 38 21 / 10 10 10 10 5
MACON 38 52 31 45 22 / 5 5 10 10 5
ROME 32 45 29 37 21 / 10 10 20 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 32 45 27 38 20 / 10 10 10 10 5
VIDALIA 37 55 29 43 21 / 10 5 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS62 KFFC 181032 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOARD A LIGHT-MODERATE
SW FLOW. THIS HAS HELD THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIP IN CHECK FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT MAYBE OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
TEMPS HOVER NEAR FREEZING. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9 AM...AS SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
WEST TN...WILL PUSH INTO NW GA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN SHOWERS GET ENHANCED BY A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. INSTABILITIES
REMAIN NIL...SO ONLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RAIN PUSHES SOUTH
THIS EVENING...BUT WRAP AROUND LOW-MID CLOUDS AND A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
NORTH GA FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU MID MONDAY MORNING WHILE
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE WINTRY
THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE WINTRY THREAT RETURNS
TO NORTH GA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS SURGE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO THE STATE ON TUESDAY...PUSHING TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD HINDER ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTH GA MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1-3 INCHES) OF SNOW BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT CLOSELY...AND
CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH GA WITH LATER FORECASTS
IF MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE WINTRY THREAT
HAS INCREASED. STAY TUNED.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MILD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A NICE WARM-UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK...SO
NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS INTO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY...COUPLED WITH A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET COULD SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORN WITH A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE HOVERING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
AS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL TAF SITES SO FOR NOW IT IS MAINLY A CEILING
FORECAST. PLAN TO CONTINUE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
NORTHERN SITES...WITH A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CLOUDS DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER PUSHES THROUGH. BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO ANY OF OUR TAFS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 48 32 46 30 42 / 40 10 10 5 10
ATLANTA 49 33 46 28 38 / 50 10 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 40 26 38 21 31 / 30 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 48 30 43 23 37 / 30 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 56 35 51 32 45 / 60 5 5 5 10
GAINESVILLE 44 32 44 27 38 / 30 10 10 10 10
MACON 54 33 51 31 46 / 70 10 5 5 10
ROME 49 32 44 26 37 / 30 10 10 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 51 30 45 28 40 / 50 10 10 5 10
VIDALIA 55 36 52 29 47 / 70 30 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.
&&
$$
39/TDP
000
FXUS62 KFFC 180824
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOARD A LIGHT-MODERATE
SW FLOW. THIS HAS HELD THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIP IN CHECK FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT MAYBE OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
TEMPS HOVER NEAR FREEZING. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9 AM...AS SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
WEST TN...WILL PUSH INTO NW GA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN SHOWERS GET ENHANCED BY A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. INSTABILITIES
REMAIN NIL...SO ONLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RAIN PUSHES SOUTH
THIS EVENING...BUT WRAP AROUND LOW-MID CLOUDS AND A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
NORTH GA FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU MID MONDAY MORNING WHILE
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE WINTRY
THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE WINTRY THREAT RETURNS
TO NORTH GA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS SURGE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO THE STATE ON TUESDAY...PUSHING TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD HINDER ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTH GA MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1-3 INCHES) OF SNOW BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT CLOSELY...AND
CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH GA WITH LATER FORECASTS
IF MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE WINTRY THREAT
HAS INCREASED. STAY TUNED.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MILD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A NICE WARM-UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK...SO
NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS INTO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY...COUPLED WITH A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET COULD SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORN WITH A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 48 32 46 30 42 / 40 10 10 5 10
ATLANTA 49 33 46 28 38 / 50 10 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 40 26 38 21 31 / 30 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 48 30 43 23 37 / 30 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 56 35 51 32 45 / 60 5 5 5 10
GAINESVILLE 44 32 44 27 38 / 30 10 10 10 10
MACON 54 33 51 31 46 / 70 10 5 5 10
ROME 49 32 44 26 37 / 30 10 10 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 51 30 45 28 40 / 50 10 10 5 10
VIDALIA 55 36 52 29 47 / 70 30 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.
&&
$$
39
000
FXUS62 KFFC 180250 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...
AM UPDATING TO RAISE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT SOME MORE. ALL AREAS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND WIND SOUTH WINDS...PCPN...AND
THICK BLANKET OF CLOUDS...DON`T SEE THEM DROPPING AT ALL. IF
ANYTHING...THEY WILL LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT. 00Z FWC MOS WAS FOLLOWED
CLOSELY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT FOR THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT FZDZ AND FZRA LIKELY CONTINUE IN THAT AREA
ACCORDING TO OBS AND RADAR. TEMPS THERE ARE HOLDING AROUND 30F.
19
&&
.PREV UPDATE... /ISSUED 713 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009/
AM ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NE GA MOUNTAIN AREAS. A
CHECK ON TEMPS IN THESE AREAS SHOWS READINGS RANGING FROM 22 AT
BRASSTOWN BALD TO AROUND 30 AT BLUE RIDGE...BLAIRSVILLE...AND
HIAWASSEE. LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN BLAIRSVILLE. ALREADY RECEIVED
REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTIES IN NC/NW GA...WITH
ONE REPORT OF SNOW STICKING TO THE ROADS IN GILMER COUNTY. TEMPS
ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE RMG...DNN...CANTON...CHA AREA...BUT SOME
ROAD SFCS MAY NOT BE BECAUSE OF RECENT VERY COLD TEMPS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPS FOR REMAINING AREAS OF NW/NC GA OUTSIDE OF WINTER
WX ADVISORY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL INTO COLD AIR
MASS...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY OR RISE
OVERNIGHT. ALL EXCEPT THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
OR RISE TO BETTER THAN 32F SHORTLY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
MATCH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PCPN BETTER.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS SHOWS MOISTURE
INCREASING BETWEEN 850-700 MB THIS EVENING WITH WAA AT 850 ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTH GEORGIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INDICATING A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND TOO WARM FOR
SNOW...BUT SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN LIKELY NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE TO
JASPER TO CLEVELAND LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA WILL CLOSE OFF AND ROTATE
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL IMPULSES...OF INCREASING
STRENGTH...ROTATES AROUND THE SHORT WAVE. THE FIRST PUSHES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. THE SECOND IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT IS STRONGER...AND WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY CLOSE AND
SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS IS SHOWING A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND...
BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
12
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS62 KFFC 180013
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATED...
AM ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NE GA MOUNTAIN AREAS. A
CHECK ON TEMPS IN THESE AREAS SHOWS READINGS RANGING FROM 22 AT
BRASSTOWN BALD TO AROUND 30 AT BLUE RIDGE...BLAIRSVILLE...AND
HIAWASSEE. LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN BLAIRSVILLE. ALREADY RECEIVED
REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTIES IN NC/NW GA...WITH
ONE REPORT OF SNOW STICKING TO THE ROADS IN GILMER COUNTY. TEMPS
ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE RMG...DNN...CANTON...CHA AREA...BUT SOME
ROAD SFCS MAY NOT BE BECAUSE OF RECENT VERY COLD TEMPS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPS FOR REMAINING AREAS OF NW/NC GA OUTSIDE OF WINTER
WX ADVISORY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL INTO COLD AIR
MASS...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY OR RISE
OVERNIGHT. ALL EXCEPT THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
OR RISE TO BETTER THAN 32F SHORTLY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
MATCH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PCPN BETTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS SHOWS MOISTURE
INCREASING BETWEEN 850-700 MB THIS EVENING WITH WAA AT 850 ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTH GEORGIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INDICATING A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND TOO WARM FOR
SNOW...BUT SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN LIKELY NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE TO
JASPER TO CLEVELAND LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA WILL CLOSE OFF AND ROTATE
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL IMPULSES...OF INCREASING
STRENGTH...ROTATES AROUND THE SHORT WAVE. THE FIRST PUSHES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. THE SECOND IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT IS STRONGER...AND WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY CLOSE AND
SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS IS SHOWING A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND...
BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS62 KFFC 172220 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATED...
ADDED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THIS EVENING BASED ON SPOTTER
REPORTS. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIGHT AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING HOURS WITH
A MIXTURE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF A WEST POINT TO
GRIFFIN TO CRAWFORDVILLE LINE.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING BETWEEN 850-700 MB THIS
EVENING WITH WAA AT 850 ACROSS ALL BUT NORTH GEORGIA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATING A MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND TOO WARM FOR SNOW...BUT SLEET MIXED WITH
RAIN LIKELY NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE TO JASPER TO CLEVELAND LINE. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AREA WILL CLOSE OFF AND ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL
IMPULSES...OF INCREASING STRENGTH...ROTATES AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THE FIRST PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE SECOND IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT IS
STRONGER...AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
LOOK PRETTY CLOSE AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS IS SHOWING A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND...
BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS THAT HAD SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
RESULTED IN LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 44 32 42 32 46 / 0 20 50 20 10
ATLANTA 42 35 46 31 43 / 0 30 50 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 35 28 38 24 35 / 0 40 50 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 40 34 42 29 41 / 0 40 50 10 10
COLUMBUS 45 37 56 34 47 / 0 20 50 10 10
GAINESVILLE 38 32 39 31 40 / 0 30 50 10 10
MACON 47 35 54 34 48 / 0 10 60 30 10
ROME 40 33 44 30 40 / 0 40 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 42 32 47 30 43 / 0 20 50 10 10
VIDALIA 48 32 57 37 46 / 0 5 60 50 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS62 KFFC 172115
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING BETWEEN 850-700 MB THIS
EVENING WITH WAA AT 850 ACROSS ALL BUT NORTH GEORGIA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATING A MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND TOO WARM FOR SNOW...BUT SLEET MIXED WITH
RAIN LIKELY NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE TO JASPER TO CLEVELAND LINE. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AREA WILL CLOSE OFF AND ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL
IMPULSES...OF INCREASING STRENGTH...ROTATES AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THE FIRST PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE SECOND IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT IS
STRONGER...AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
LOOK PRETTY CLOSE AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS IS SHOWING A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND...
BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS THAT HAD SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
RESULTED IN LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 44 32 42 32 46 / 0 20 50 20 10
ATLANTA 42 35 46 31 43 / 0 30 50 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 35 28 38 24 35 / 0 40 50 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 40 34 42 29 41 / 0 40 50 10 10
COLUMBUS 45 37 56 34 47 / 0 20 50 10 10
GAINESVILLE 38 32 39 31 40 / 0 30 50 10 10
MACON 47 35 54 34 48 / 0 10 60 30 10
ROME 40 33 44 30 40 / 0 40 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 42 32 47 30 43 / 0 20 50 10 10
VIDALIA 48 32 57 37 46 / 0 5 60 50 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
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