000
FXUS64 KCRP 201717
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1117 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RELAXING THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE THROUGH WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...ONGOING FCST LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS
S TX...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MOD OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL CONT WITH THE
RED FLAG WARNING AS AM STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND WILL
CONT WITH THE SCEC FOR THE MARINE ZONES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. AS A RESULT...LGT
WNDS WILL INCREASE FM THE N AND BE GUSTY 16Z-23Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY (BOTH NAM12 AND GFS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES)
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A VERY WEAK DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS.
WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER RAPID
WARM UP. COULD BE A VERY WEAK SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
WEAKEST.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SCEC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
AGAIN...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. MODELS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
BUT DO EXPECT WINDS GUSTING FROM THE NORTH NEAR 25 MPH COASTAL
BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY AND 20-25 MPH RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RED FLAG
EVENT WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVR THE CONUS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY
LATE THU. THIS WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AFTN/FRI OVR THE COASTAL WATERS.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA AND
CONTRIUBUTE TO FROPA BY SAT OVR THE CWFA WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN
OVR THE COASTAL WATERS. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALG THE FRONT OWING TO
LIMITED MSTR. NEVERTHELESS...ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED DRG MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR MOVG OVR SHALLOW
FRONTS TDA AND SAT. THUS...EXPECT PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION MONDAY. YET...WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN OWING TO EXPECTATION OF
LIMITED MSTR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 38 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 33 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 45 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 74 37 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 72 41 74 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 74 33 78 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 35 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 44 74 54 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AT/15...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 201507
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
907 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...ONGOING FCST LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS
S TX...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MOD OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL CONT WITH THE
RED FLAG WARNING AS AM STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND WILL
CONT WITH THE SCEC FOR THE MARINE ZONES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. AS A RESULT...LGT
WNDS WILL INCREASE FM THE N AND BE GUSTY 16Z-23Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY (BOTH NAM12 AND GFS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES)
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A VERY WEAK DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS.
WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER RAPID
WARM UP. COULD BE A VERY WEAK SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
WEAKEST.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SCEC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
AGAIN...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. MODELS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
BUT DO EXPECT WINDS GUSTING FROM THE NORTH NEAR 25 MPH COASTAL
BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY AND 20-25 MPH RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RED FLAG
EVENT WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVR THE CONUS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY
LATE THU. THIS WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AFTN/FRI OVR THE COASTAL WATERS.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA AND
CONTRIUBUTE TO FROPA BY SAT OVR THE CWFA WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN
OVR THE COASTAL WATERS. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALG THE FRONT OWING TO
LIMITED MSTR. NEVERTHELESS...ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED DRG MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR MOVG OVR SHALLOW
FRONTS TDA AND SAT. THUS...EXPECT PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION MONDAY. YET...WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN OWING TO EXPECTATION OF
LIMITED MSTR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 38 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 33 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 45 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 74 37 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 72 41 74 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 74 33 78 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 35 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 44 74 54 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 201130
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
530 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. AS A RESULT...LGT
WNDS WILL INCREASE FM THE N AND BE GUSTY 16Z-23Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY (BOTH NAM12 AND GFS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES)
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A VERY WEAK DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS.
WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER RAPID
WARM UP. COULD BE A VERY WEAK SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
WEAKEST.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SCEC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
AGAIN...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. MODELS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
BUT DO EXPECT WINDS GUSTING FROM THE NORTH NEAR 25 MPH COASTAL
BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY AND 20-25 MPH RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RED FLAG
EVENT WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVR THE CONUS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY
LATE THU. THIS WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AFTN/FRI OVR THE COASTAL WATERS.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA AND
CONTRIUBUTE TO FROPA BY SAT OVR THE CWFA WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN
OVR THE COASTAL WATERS. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALG THE FRONT OWING TO
LIMITED MSTR. NEVERTHELESS...ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED DRG MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR MOVG OVR SHALLOW
FRONTS TDA AND SAT. THUS...EXPECT PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION MONDAY. YET...WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN OWING TO EXPECTATION OF
LIMITED MSTR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 38 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 33 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 45 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 74 37 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 72 41 74 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 74 33 78 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 35 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 44 74 54 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...
LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200936
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
336 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY (BOTH NAM12 AND GFS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES)
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A VERY WEAK DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS.
WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER RAPID
WARM UP. COULD BE A VERY WEAK SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
WEAKEST.
&&
.MARINE...OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SCEC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
AGAIN...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. MODELS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
BUT DO EXPECT WINDS GUSTING FROM THE NORTH NEAR 25 MPH COASTAL
BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY AND 20-25 MPH RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RED FLAG
EVENT WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVR THE CONUS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY
LATE THU. THIS WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AFTN/FRI OVR THE COASTAL WATERS.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA AND
CONTRIUBUTE TO FROPA BY SAT OVR THE CWFA WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN
OVR THE COASTAL WATERS. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALG THE FRONT OWING TO
LIMITED MSTR. NEVERTHELESS...ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED DRG MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR MOVG OVR SHALLOW
FRONTS TDA AND SAT. THUS...EXPECT PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION MONDAY. YET...WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN OWING TO EXPECTATION OF
LIMITED MSTR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 38 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 33 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 45 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 74 37 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 72 41 74 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 74 33 78 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 35 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 44 74 54 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...
LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200528
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1128 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TUESDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. ANOTHER LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW AS THIS DRY AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TOMORROW AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO VALUES EXPERIENCED
TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN A
REENFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING THAT
WILL INCREASE NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
USHERED IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH THE 12Z CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING
INDICATING 0.05 PRECIPITABLE WATER. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAW WIND GUSTS NEAR 33
MPH IN SOME OF THE MORE WIND-FAVORED LOCATIONS TODAY, AND AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW WILL BRING EVEN
HIGHER WINDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO DECIDE IF A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDE SWINGS
BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI AS SLY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW PREVAILS. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHALLOW AS THE WINDS WL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SVRL THOUSAND FEET ABV THE SFC. WITH THE
MID/UPR RDG AXIS BREAKING DOWN BY THU...A PACIFIC TAP OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WL INVADE THE CWA. ANY PCPN THAT FORMS ALOFT
DURING THE THU NIGHT-FRI TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND AND SO WL ONLY CARRY 10% POPS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WEEKEND COLD FNT. THE LAST SVRL ECMWF SOLNS HAVE BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND NOW THE 12Z GFS SOLN HAS LEANED TWDS THE ECMWF SOLN
AS WELL. AS A RESULT WL DEPICT THE FNT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING IT NORTH OF THE CWA AS A WARM
FNT BY SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SINCE
THERE WL REMAIN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND A BUILDING
MID/UPR RDG AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL THEN PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.
MARINE...PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TUESDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING CONSIDERING THAT WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AS
TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 42 72 39 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 40 70 34 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 47 74 41 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 42 74 35 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 44 70 42 70 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 41 73 36 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 42 74 38 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 70 42 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KRR/97...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200305
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
905 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. ANOTHER LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW AS THIS DRY AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TOMORROW AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO VALUES EXPERIENCED
TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN A
REENFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING THAT
WILL INCREASE NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
USHERED IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH THE 12Z CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING
INDICATING 0.05 PRECIPITABLE WATER. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAW WIND GUSTS NEAR 33
MPH IN SOME OF THE MORE WIND-FAVORED LOCATIONS TODAY, AND AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW WILL BRING EVEN
HIGHER WINDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO DECIDE IF A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDE SWINGS
BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI AS SLY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW PREVAILS. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHALLOW AS THE WINDS WL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SVRL THOUSAND FEET ABV THE SFC. WITH THE
MID/UPR RDG AXIS BREAKING DOWN BY THU...A PACIFIC TAP OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WL INVADE THE CWA. ANY PCPN THAT FORMS ALOFT
DURING THE THU NIGHT-FRI TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND AND SO WL ONLY CARRY 10% POPS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WEEKEND COLD FNT. THE LAST SVRL ECMWF SOLNS HAVE BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND NOW THE 12Z GFS SOLN HAS LEANED TWDS THE ECMWF SOLN
AS WELL. AS A RESULT WL DEPICT THE FNT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING IT NORTH OF THE CWA AS A WARM
FNT BY SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SINCE
THERE WL REMAIN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND A BUILDING
MID/UPR RDG AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL THEN PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.
MARINE...PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TUESDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING CONSIDERING THAT WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AS
TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 42 72 39 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 40 70 34 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 47 74 41 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 42 74 35 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 44 70 42 70 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 41 73 36 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 42 74 38 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 70 42 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KRR/97...UPDATE
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192329 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN A
REENFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING THAT
WILL INCREASE NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
USHERED IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH THE 12Z CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING
INDICATING 0.05 PRECIPITABLE WATER. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAW WIND GUSTS NEAR 33
MPH IN SOME OF THE MORE WIND-FAVORED LOCATIONS TODAY, AND AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW WILL BRING EVEN
HIGHER WINDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO DECIDE IF A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDE SWINGS
BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI AS SLY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW PREVAILS. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHALLOW AS THE WINDS WL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SVRL THOUSAND FEET ABV THE SFC. WITH THE
MID/UPR RDG AXIS BREAKING DOWN BY THU...A PACIFIC TAP OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WL INVADE THE CWA. ANY PCPN THAT FORMS ALOFT
DURING THE THU NIGHT-FRI TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND AND SO WL ONLY CARRY 10% POPS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WEEKEND COLD FNT. THE LAST SVRL ECMWF SOLNS HAVE BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND NOW THE 12Z GFS SOLN HAS LEANED TWDS THE ECMWF SOLN
AS WELL. AS A RESULT WL DEPICT THE FNT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING IT NORTH OF THE CWA AS A WARM
FNT BY SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SINCE
THERE WL REMAIN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND A BUILDING
MID/UPR RDG AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL THEN PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.
MARINE...PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TUESDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING CONSIDERING THAT WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AS
TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 44 72 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 77 40 70 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 82 47 74 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 83 44 74 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 46 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 80 42 73 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 82 44 74 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 78 49 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192016
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
216 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
USHERED IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH THE 12Z CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING
INDICATING 0.05 PRECIPITABLE WATER. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAW WIND GUSTS NEAR 33
MPH IN SOME OF THE MORE WIND-FAVORED LOCATIONS TODAY, AND AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW WILL BRING EVEN
HIGHER WINDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO DECIDE IF A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDE SWINGS
BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI AS SLY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW PREVAILS. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHALLOW AS THE WINDS WL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SVRL THOUSAND FEET ABV THE SFC. WITH THE
MID/UPR RDG AXIS BREAKING DOWN BY THU...A PACIFIC TAP OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WL INVADE THE CWA. ANY PCPN THAT FORMS ALOFT
DURING THE THU NIGHT-FRI TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND AND SO WL ONLY CARRY 10% POPS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WEEKEND COLD FNT. THE LAST SVRL ECMWF SOLNS HAVE BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND NOW THE 12Z GFS SOLN HAS LEANED TWDS THE ECMWF SOLN
AS WELL. AS A RESULT WL DEPICT THE FNT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING IT NORTH OF THE CWA AS A WARM
FNT BY SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SINCE
THERE WL REMAIN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND A BUILDING
MID/UPR RDG AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WL THEN PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TUESDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING CONSIDERING THAT WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AS
TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 44 72 39 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 40 70 34 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 47 74 41 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 44 74 35 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 46 70 42 70 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 42 73 36 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 44 74 38 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 49 70 42 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191631 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1031 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...BASICALLY REDUCED TO A TEMP AND WIND FORECAST TODAY
DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY DRY AIRMASS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. EVERYTHING
LOOKING ON TRACK AT THIS TIME SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM 15Z-23Z
BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST THIN/FEW
CIRRUS ABOVE 25K FT. LGT W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NW THEN
INCREASE AND BCM GUSTY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON...CONT THRU THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH
FULL SUN (VERY THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TODAY) AND MIXING OF EVEN DRY AIR
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOL NIGHT.
SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN BREEZY AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM IN FIRE WEATHER. SEE BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TODAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
CRITICALLY LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS MIXING OCCURS...FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WINDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN ON TUESDAY...FROM THE MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT LA
SALLE AND WEBB (ALTHOUGH THESE TWO COUNTIES WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE). A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR TUESDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE CRP CWA.
MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCEC
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NEAR SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE GULF WATERS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANTICIPATE STG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING EARLY WED OVR THE NERN
CWFA DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS/PSN OF THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE CWFA.
CONCUR WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRANSITION FROM AN HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER PATTERN TUESDAY NGT TO QUASI-ZONAL BY THU...WHICH WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT (SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUDS NOT PCPN) AND
ONSHORE FLOW/ASSOCIATED INCREASING MSTR. THE GFS/NOGAP/ECMWF
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/PSN OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION FRI/SAT...YET WL NOT INTRODUCE
CONVECTION OWING TO GFS POSITIVE LI VALUES. DESPITE THE QUASI-ZONAL
UPPER PATTERN...THE MODELS PROG A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
ACRS THE EXTREME NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA FRI/SAT AND CONTRIBUTE TO A
SWD MOVG COLD FRONT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVR THE CWFA SUN WHILE
THE ECMWF/NOGAPS APPEAR TO MOVE THE FRONT ACRS THE CWFA SAT. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SWD MOVEMENT INTO
TX. WL FCST CLOUD COVER YET WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 44 72 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 77 40 70 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 82 47 76 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 83 44 75 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 46 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 80 41 73 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 82 44 74 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 78 49 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...
LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191006
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
406 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH
FULL SUN (VERY THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TODAY) AND MIXING OF EVEN DRY AIR
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOL NIGHT.
SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN BREEZY AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM IN FIRE WEATHER. SEE BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TODAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
CRITICALLY LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS MIXING OCCURS...FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WINDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN ON TUESDAY...FROM THE MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT LA
SALLE AND WEBB (ALTHOUGH THESE TWO COUNTIES WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE). A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR TUESDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE CRP CWA.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCEC
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NEAR SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE GULF WATERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG-TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANTICIPATE STG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING EARLY WED OVR THE NERN
CWFA DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS/PSN OF THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE CWFA.
CONCUR WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRANSITION FROM AN HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER PATTERN TUESDAY NGT TO QUASI-ZONAL BY THU...WHICH WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT (SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUDS NOT PCPN) AND
ONSHORE FLOW/ASSOCIATED INCREASING MSTR. THE GFS/NOGAP/ECMWF
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/PSN OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION FRI/SAT...YET WL NOT INTRODUCE
CONVECTION OWING TO GFS POSITIVE LI VALUES. DESPITE THE QUASI-ZONAL
UPPER PATTERN...THE MODELS PROG A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
ACRS THE EXTREME NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA FRI/SAT AND CONTRIBUTE TO A
SWD MOVG COLD FRONT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVR THE CWFA SUN WHILE
THE ECMWF/NOGAPS APPEAR TO MOVE THE FRONT ACRS THE CWFA SAT. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SWD MOVEMENT INTO
TX. WL FCST CLOUD COVER YET WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 44 72 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 77 40 70 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 82 47 76 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 83 44 75 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 46 70 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 80 41 73 36 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 82 44 74 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 78 49 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...
LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190525
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1125 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER HAS
BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS NOT RESOLVING
THE DRY AIR VERY WELL AND IS SHOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN ARE
BEING OBSERVED. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT GRIDS ACCORDINGLY
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THIS VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE...AM EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR...HOWEVER STILL DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 2
TO 3 DEGREES AREAWIDE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON....
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 TO 20
MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. VERY DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS. THIS
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IF THE WINDS ARE
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...12Z MOS INDICATIONS OF FOG TONIGHT ARE NOT CORRECT AS
AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED W/ DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S MOST AREAS. SOME 18Z GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ON AND NO
LONGER SHOWS FOG TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SOUTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL
TRANSITION FROM A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL BLOCKY PATTERN TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW AFTER TUE. THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE FINAL
STRONG S/WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON TUE. AN ASSCTD
COLD FNT WL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WL COME
THROUGH DRY AND WL PROVIDE A 5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ALONG WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY WED
AFTN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. SPILLOVER MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL IMPACT
THE AREA BY WED NIGHT AS THE MID/UPR RDG AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES TWDS
THE CWA. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON THU AS THE FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL...ALLOWING A PACIFIC TAP OF MOISTURE TO FEED
ACROSS SOUTH TX. BY FRI THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLNS. THE
ECMWF SOLN IS FAVORED ON ITS HANDLING OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FNT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST WAY TOO WET...TOO STRONG AND
TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS POSITION OF A SRN STREAM S/WV.
INSTEAD PREFER THE FASTER AND WEAKER S/WV DEPICTED BY SVRL RUNS OF
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE...WL NOT MENION PCPN ON THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FCST AS MOISTURE AND FORCING WL LKLY BE ISSUES. WL SHOW COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD AIRMASS SLOWLY SINKS SWD ACROSS
THE CWA.
MARINE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 42 81 47 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 36 76 41 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 46 81 46 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 43 82 45 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 44 79 50 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 35 78 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 42 82 46 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 79 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...
LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KRR/97...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190313
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER HAS
BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS NOT RESOLVING
THE DRY AIR VERY WELL AND IS SHOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN ARE
BEING OBSERVED. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT GRIDS ACCORDINGLY
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THIS VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE...AM EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR...HOWEVER STILL DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 2
TO 3 DEGREES AREAWIDE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON....
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 TO 20
MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. VERY DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS. THIS
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IF THE WINDS ARE
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...12Z MOS INDICATIONS OF FOG TONIGHT ARE NOT CORRECT AS
AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED W/ DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S MOST AREAS. SOME 18Z GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ON AND NO
LONGER SHOWS FOG TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SOUTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL
TRANSITION FROM A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL BLOCKY PATTERN TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW AFTER TUE. THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE FINAL
STRONG S/WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON TUE. AN ASSCTD
COLD FNT WL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WL COME
THROUGH DRY AND WL PROVIDE A 5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ALONG WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY WED
AFTN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. SPILLOVER MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL IMPACT
THE AREA BY WED NIGHT AS THE MID/UPR RDG AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES TWDS
THE CWA. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON THU AS THE FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL...ALLOWING A PACIFIC TAP OF MOISTURE TO FEED
ACROSS SOUTH TX. BY FRI THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLNS. THE
ECMWF SOLN IS FAVORED ON ITS HANDLING OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FNT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST WAY TOO WET...TOO STRONG AND
TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS POSITION OF A SRN STREAM S/WV.
INSTEAD PREFER THE FASTER AND WEAKER S/WV DEPICTED BY SVRL RUNS OF
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE...WL NOT MENION PCPN ON THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FCST AS MOISTURE AND FORCING WL LKLY BE ISSUES. WL SHOW COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD AIRMASS SLOWLY SINKS SWD ACROSS
THE CWA.
MARINE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 42 81 47 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 36 76 41 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 46 81 46 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 43 82 45 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 44 79 50 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 35 78 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 42 82 46 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 79 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...
WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KRR/97...UPDATE
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190007 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z MOS INDICATIONS OF FOG TONIGHT ARE NOT CORRECT AS
AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED W/ DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S MOST AREAS. SOME 18Z GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ON AND NO
LONGER SHOWS FOG TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SOUTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL
TRANSITION FROM A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL BLOCKY PATTERN TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW AFTER TUE. THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE FINAL
STRONG S/WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON TUE. AN ASSCTD
COLD FNT WL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WL COME
THROUGH DRY AND WL PROVIDE A 5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ALONG WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY WED
AFTN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. SPILLOVER MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL IMPACT
THE AREA BY WED NIGHT AS THE MID/UPR RDG AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES TWDS
THE CWA. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON THU AS THE FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL...ALLOWING A PACIFIC TAP OF MOISTURE TO FEED
ACROSS SOUTH TX. BY FRI THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLNS. THE
ECMWF SOLN IS FAVORED ON ITS HANDLING OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FNT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST WAY TOO WET...TOO STRONG AND
TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS POSITION OF A SRN STREAM S/WV.
INSTEAD PREFER THE FASTER AND WEAKER S/WV DEPICTED BY SVRL RUNS OF
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE...WL NOT MENION PCPN ON THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FCST AS MOISTURE AND FORCING WL LKLY BE ISSUES. WL SHOW COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD AIRMASS SLOWLY SINKS SWD ACROSS
THE CWA.
MARINE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 44 81 47 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 38 76 41 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 48 81 46 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 43 82 45 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 44 79 50 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 37 78 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 44 82 46 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 79 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...
WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181942
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
142 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SOUTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL
TRANSITION FROM A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL BLOCKY PATTERN TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW AFTER TUE. THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE FINAL
STRONG S/WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON TUE. AN ASSCTD
COLD FNT WL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WL COME
THROUGH DRY AND WL PROVIDE A 5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ALONG WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY WED
AFTN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. SPILLOVER MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL IMPACT
THE AREA BY WED NIGHT AS THE MID/UPR RDG AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES TWDS
THE CWA. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON THU AS THE FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL...ALLOWING A PACIFIC TAP OF MOISTURE TO FEED
ACROSS SOUTH TX. BY FRI THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLNS. THE
ECMWF SOLN IS FAVORED ON ITS HANDLING OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FNT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST WAY TOO WET...TOO STRONG AND
TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS POSITION OF A SRN STREAM S/WV.
INSTEAD PREFER THE FASTER AND WEAKER S/WV DEPICTED BY SVRL RUNS OF
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE...WL NOT MENION PCPN ON THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FCST AS MOISTURE AND FORCING WL LKLY BE ISSUES. WL SHOW COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD AIRMASS SLOWLY SINKS SWD ACROSS
THE CWA.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 44 81 47 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 38 76 41 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 48 81 46 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 43 82 45 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 44 79 50 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 37 78 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 44 82 46 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 79 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181724 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1124 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 15 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...FOG IS RAPIDLY CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS SO WILL UPDATE VARIOUS PRODUCTS TO
REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ASSOCIATED LAND/MARINE ZONES. NO
OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH ALL
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG SHOWING UP
NICELY ON 11-3.9U IMAGERY...AND IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AS WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS FORMED ALONG AND E OF VCT-ALI...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING LIFR VSBLTYS. VBSLTYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 14Z-16Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE BEHIND FRONT. VFR CONDS THEN
XPCTD THRU REMAINDER OF TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING WEST AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME DENSE FOG IN JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY DENSE FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND CLEAR
SKIES. HAVE FORECASTED CLOSER TOWARDS THE MET GUIDANCE...SHOWING
WARMER HIGHS TODAY AND COOLER MORNING LOWS MONDAY GIVEN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY...WITH A VERY LARGE REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY
SKIS AND CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD
FRONT. RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT AND MIXING OF EVEN DRIER
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES ON MONDAY IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE TO
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF
PROG A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH WED...
WHICH WL CONTRIBUTE TO A SURGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SCEC/SCA
CONDITIONS OVR THE WATERS TUE...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
WEST COAST WED. THE TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALONE WL
CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW/INCREASED MSTR OVR THE REGION BY LATE WED.
HWR...THE SOLNS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS MOVG THE SYSTEM ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF/NOGAPS MOVS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY ACRS TX. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM MOVS FURTHER SOUTH...THE INCREASED MSTR WL LIKELY BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS
LIKELY. THUS WL SIMPLY FCST INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THU. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVS EAST...THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS PROG THE CORRESPONDING
FROPA TO ENTER THE REGION LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. BASED ON THE GFS...
MSTR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVR THE WATERS. YET WL MAINTAIN A
DRY FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 42 82 47 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 76 35 77 42 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 48 82 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 78 43 83 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 43 80 50 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 76 37 79 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 41 83 46 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 48 80 51 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181459 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
859 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...FOG IS RAPIDLY CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS SO WILL UPDATE VARIOUS PRODUCTS TO
REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ASSOCIATED LAND/MARINE ZONES. NO
OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH ALL
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG SHOWING UP
NICELY ON 11-3.9U IMAGERY...AND IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AS WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS FORMED ALONG AND E OF VCT-ALI...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING LIFR VSBLTYS. VBSLTYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 14Z-16Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE BEHIND FRONT. VFR CONDS THEN
XPCTD THRU REMAINDER OF TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING WEST AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME DENSE FOG IN JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY DENSE FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND CLEAR
SKIES. HAVE FORECASTED CLOSER TOWARDS THE MET GUIDANCE...SHOWING
WARMER HIGHS TODAY AND COOLER MORNING LOWS MONDAY GIVEN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY...WITH A VERY LARGE REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY
SKIS AND CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD
FRONT. RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT AND MIXING OF EVEN DRIER
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES ON MONDAY IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE TO
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF
PROG A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH WED...
WHICH WL CONTRIBUTE TO A SURGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SCEC/SCA
CONDITIONS OVR THE WATERS TUE...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
WEST COAST WED. THE TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALONE WL
CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW/INCREASED MSTR OVR THE REGION BY LATE WED.
HWR...THE SOLNS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS MOVG THE SYSTEM ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF/NOGAPS MOVS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY ACRS TX. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM MOVS FURTHER SOUTH...THE INCREASED MSTR WL LIKELY BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS
LIKELY. THUS WL SIMPLY FCST INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THU. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVS EAST...THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS PROG THE CORRESPONDING
FROPA TO ENTER THE REGION LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. BASED ON THE GFS...
MSTR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVR THE WATERS. YET WL MAINTAIN A
DRY FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 42 82 47 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 76 35 77 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 48 82 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 78 43 83 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 43 80 50 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 76 37 79 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 41 83 46 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 48 80 51 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181218
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH ALL
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG SHOWING UP
NICELY ON 11-3.9U IMAGERY...AND IS ADVECTING EASTWARD AS WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS FORMED ALONG AND E OF VCT-ALI...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING LIFR VSBLTYS. VBSLTYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 14Z-16Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE BEHIND FRONT. VFR CONDS THEN
XPCTD THRU REMAINDER OF TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING WEST AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME DENSE FOG IN JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY DENSE FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND CLEAR
SKIES. HAVE FORECASTED CLOSER TOWARDS THE MET GUIDANCE...SHOWING
WARMER HIGHS TODAY AND COOLER MORNING LOWS MONDAY GIVEN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY...WITH A VERY LARGE REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY
SKIS AND CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD
FRONT. RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT AND MIXING OF EVEN DRIER
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES ON MONDAY IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE TO
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF
PROG A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH WED...
WHICH WL CONTRIBUTE TO A SURGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SCEC/SCA
CONDITIONS OVR THE WATERS TUE...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
WEST COAST WED. THE TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALONE WL
CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW/INCREASED MSTR OVR THE REGION BY LATE WED.
HWR...THE SOLNS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS MOVG THE SYSTEM ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF/NOGAPS MOVS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY ACRS TX. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM MOVS FURTHER SOUTH...THE INCREASED MSTR WL LIKELY BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS
LIKELY. THUS WL SIMPLY FCST INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THU. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVS EAST...THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS PROG THE CORRESPONDING
FROPA TO ENTER THE REGION LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. BASED ON THE GFS...
MSTR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVR THE WATERS. YET WL MAINTAIN A
DRY FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 42 82 47 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 76 35 77 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 48 82 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 78 43 83 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 43 80 50 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 76 37 79 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 41 83 46 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 48 80 51 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181143
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
543 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS FORMED ALONG AND E OF VCT-ALI...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING LIFR VSBLTYS. VBSLTYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 14Z-16Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE BEHIND FRONT. VFR CONDS THEN
XPCTD THRU REMAINDER OF TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING WEST AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME DENSE FOG IN JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY DENSE FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND CLEAR
SKIES. HAVE FORECASTED CLOSER TOWARDS THE MET GUIDANCE...SHOWING
WARMER HIGHS TODAY AND COOLER MORNING LOWS MONDAY GIVEN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY...WITH A VERY LARGE REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY
SKIS AND CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD
FRONT. RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT AND MIXING OF EVEN DRIER
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES ON MONDAY IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE TO
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF
PROG A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH WED...
WHICH WL CONTRIBUTE TO A SURGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SCEC/SCA
CONDITIONS OVR THE WATERS TUE...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
WEST COAST WED. THE TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALONE WL
CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW/INCREASED MSTR OVR THE REGION BY LATE WED.
HWR...THE SOLNS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS MOVG THE SYSTEM ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF/NOGAPS MOVS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY ACRS TX. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM MOVS FURTHER SOUTH...THE INCREASED MSTR WL LIKELY BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS
LIKELY. THUS WL SIMPLY FCST INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THU. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVS EAST...THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS PROG THE CORRESPONDING
FROPA TO ENTER THE REGION LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. BASED ON THE GFS...
MSTR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVR THE WATERS. YET WL MAINTAIN A
DRY FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 42 82 47 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 76 35 77 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 48 82 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 78 43 83 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 43 80 50 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 76 37 79 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 41 83 46 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 48 80 51 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181000
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING WEST AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME DENSE FOG IN JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY DENSE FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND CLEAR
SKIES. HAVE FORECASTED CLOSER TOWARDS THE MET GUIDANCE...SHOWING
WARMER HIGHS TODAY AND COOLER MORNING LOWS MONDAY GIVEN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY...WITH A VERY LARGE REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY
SKIS AND CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD
FRONT. RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT AND MIXING OF EVEN DRIER
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES ON MONDAY IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE TO
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF
PROG A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH WED...
WHICH WL CONTRIBUTE TO A SURGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SCEC/SCA
CONDITIONS OVR THE WATERS TUE...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
WEST COAST WED. THE TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALONE WL
CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW/INCREASED MSTR OVR THE REGION BY LATE WED.
HWR...THE SOLNS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE GFS MOVG THE SYSTEM ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF/NOGAPS MOVS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY ACRS TX. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM MOVS FURTHER SOUTH...THE INCREASED MSTR WL LIKELY BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS
LIKELY. THUS WL SIMPLY FCST INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THU. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVS EAST...THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS PROG THE CORRESPONDING
FROPA TO ENTER THE REGION LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. BASED ON THE GFS...
MSTR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVR THE WATERS. YET WL MAINTAIN A
DRY FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 42 82 47 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 76 35 77 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 48 82 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 78 43 83 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 43 80 50 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 76 37 79 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 41 83 46 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 48 80 51 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 180540 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VERY TRICKY SET OF TAFS TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS CEN TEXAS ARE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG...BUT 4-5K FT SCU
DECK IN THE AREA IS WORKING TO HAMPER ITS DEVELOPMENT. THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL DIMINISH FROM WNW TO SE AS WINDS AT THE CLOUD LEVEL TURN
WRLY TAPING INTO DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT ESP IN ALI AREA WHO HAS
GREATEST CHC TO CLR OUT...BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT
TIME FOG HAS TO FORM AS IT PUSHES NEAR THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. GIVEN ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...AM SHOWING LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND
VLIFR IN ALI WHERE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THINK DRIER
AIR IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA WILL KEEP LRD IN MVFR RANGE. DRY AIR
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...BIG ISSUE TO NIGHT HAS TO DUE W/ FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AREA OF CLOUDS HAMPERING FOG
DEVELOPMENT ATTM EXTENDS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT IS
ASSOC W/ WEAK 295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEPICTED BY MODELS IN THE
AREA. THE UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS MORE WRLY FLOW OFF THE DECK DEVELOPS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD LEAD TO
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL IF THE SCU DECK DISSIPATES LATE (ESP IN
CEN/WRN AREAS). WILL INCREASE FOG WORDING...ESP IN AREAS BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 16 AND HIGHWAY 181...BUT STILL WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL WE SEE THINGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
WILL ALSO MAKES SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS GIVEN RECENT/EXPECTED
TRENDS OF LESS CLOUD COVER OUT WEST. STILL MAY SEE A SHRA IN FAR
ERN AREAS REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT W/ HELP
OF A JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO
THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES RGN WL PUSH A COLD FNT
CURRENTLY ALONG THE RED RIVER THROUGH SOUTH TX ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FNT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA BEHIND THE FNT AND CLEAR OUT THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS.
GENERALLY LEANED TWDS THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE FCST.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WL GRADUALLY VEER TNT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND THE FNT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FCST PD.
AVIATION...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ONE-HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE CLOUD
CVR. MEANWHILE...CEILINGS WL ACTUALLY LOWER TO 3-4K FT ACROSS THE
ERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP
WESTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LYR COOLS AND ALLOWS LOWER
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. A WK COLD FRONT WL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH TX BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SKIES WL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE FNT AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WORK INTO THE RGN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LATETS RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY, A REIFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE,
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, FLAT RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A VERY GRADUAL
DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND THURSDAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT TO KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 75 45 79 47 / 10 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 53 72 38 74 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 53 76 47 80 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALICE 55 77 42 79 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 57 73 48 75 50 / 20 20 0 0 0
COTULLA 48 72 39 78 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 55 77 43 80 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 59 74 49 76 51 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MG/88...SHORT TERM
MG/88...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 180411 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1011 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...BIG ISSUE TO NIGHT HAS TO DUE W/ FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AREA OF CLOUDS HAMPERING FOG
DEVELOPMENT ATTM EXTENDS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT IS
ASSOC W/ WEAK 295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEPICTED BY MODELS IN THE
AREA. THE UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS MORE WRLY FLOW OFF THE DECK DEVELOPS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD LEAD TO
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL IF THE SCU DECK DISSIPATES LATE (ESP IN
CEN/WRN AREAS). WILL INCREASE FOG WORDING...ESP IN AREAS BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 16 AND HIGHWAY 181...BUT STILL WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL WE SEE THINGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
WILL ALSO MAKES SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS GIVEN RECENT/EXPECTED
TRENDS OF LESS CLOUD COVER OUT WEST. STILL MAY SEE A SHRA IN FAR
ERN AREAS REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT W/ HELP
OF A JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO
THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES RGN WL PUSH A COLD FNT
CURRENTLY ALONG THE RED RIVER THROUGH SOUTH TX ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FNT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA BEHIND THE FNT AND CLEAR OUT THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS.
GENERALLY LEANED TWDS THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE FCST.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WL GRADUALLY VEER TNT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND THE FNT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FCST PD.
AVIATION...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ONE-HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE CLOUD
CVR. MEANWHILE...CEILINGS WL ACTUALLY LOWER TO 3-4K FT ACROSS THE
ERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP
WESTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LYR COOLS AND ALLOWS LOWER
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. A WK COLD FRONT WL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH TX BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SKIES WL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE FNT AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WORK INTO THE RGN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LATETS RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY, A REIFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE,
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, FLAT RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A VERY GRADUAL
DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND THURSDAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT TO KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 75 45 79 47 / 10 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 53 72 38 74 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 53 76 47 80 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALICE 55 77 42 79 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 57 73 48 75 50 / 20 20 0 0 0
COTULLA 48 72 39 78 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 55 77 43 80 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 59 74 49 76 51 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG..UPDATE
000
FXUS64 KCRP 172332
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES RGN WL PUSH A COLD FNT
CURRENTLY ALONG THE RED RIVER THROUGH SOUTH TX ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FNT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA BEHIND THE FNT AND CLEAR OUT THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS.
GENERALLY LEANED TWDS THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE FCST.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WL GRADUALLY VEER TNT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND THE FNT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FCST PD.
AVIATION...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ONE-HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE CLOUD
CVR. MEANWHILE...CEILINGS WL ACTUALLY LOWER TO 3-4K FT ACROSS THE
ERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP
WESTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LYR COOLS AND ALLOWS LOWER
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. A WK COLD FRONT WL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH TX BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SKIES WL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE FNT AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WORK INTO THE RGN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LATETS RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY, A REIFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE,
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, FLAT RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A VERY GRADUAL
DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND THURSDAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT TO KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 75 45 79 47 / 10 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 53 72 38 74 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 53 76 47 80 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALICE 55 77 42 79 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 57 73 48 75 50 / 20 20 0 0 0
COTULLA 48 72 39 78 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 55 77 43 80 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 59 74 49 76 51 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KRR/97...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 172028
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
228 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES RGN WL PUSH A COLD FNT
CURRENTLY ALONG THE RED RIVER THROUGH SOUTH TX ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FNT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA BEHIND THE FNT AND CLEAR OUT THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS.
GENERALLY LEANED TWDS THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE FCST.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WL GRADUALLY VEER TNT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND THE FNT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FCST PD.
&&
.AVIATION...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ONE-HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE CLOUD
CVR. MEANWHILE...CEILINGS WL ACTUALLY LOWER TO 3-4K FT ACROSS THE
ERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP
WESTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LYR COOLS AND ALLOWS LOWER
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. A WK COLD FRONT WL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH TX BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SKIES WL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE FNT AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WORK INTO THE RGN.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LATETS RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY, A REIFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE,
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, FLAT RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A VERY GRADUAL
DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND THURSDAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT TO KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 75 45 79 47 / 10 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 53 72 38 74 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 53 76 47 80 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALICE 55 77 42 79 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 57 73 48 75 50 / 20 20 0 0 0
COTULLA 48 72 39 78 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 55 77 43 80 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 59 74 49 76 51 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
JR/19...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 171809 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1209 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS AREAS WITH BREAKS
HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 70S. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE WINDS
DOWNWARD ACROSS THE CLOUDIER AREAS AND UPWARD ACROSS THE NERN
AREAS WHERE THERE IS BETTER MIXING DUE TO THE BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS KEPT INTACT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...KCRP RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WITH AN AREA OF DRIZZLE FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL BEND. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WK S/WV PASSING SEWD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
S/WV WL EXIT THE CWA THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE 295-300K LYR WL PERSIST TDA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. WL THUS MAINTAIN LOWISH POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. WL SHOW AN END TO THE RAIN CHCS BY THIS AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN AREAS AS THE S/WV PUSHES EAST OF THIS AREA BY THAT
TIME. TEMPS WL SHOW A WARMING TREND FROM 24 HOURS AGO AS THE SFC
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
EXPECTED. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 59 73 41 79 / 20 10 20 0 0
VICTORIA 73 54 72 37 74 / 20 20 20 0 0
LAREDO 70 55 73 46 80 / 20 10 10 0 0
ALICE 72 57 74 43 79 / 20 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 70 58 71 43 75 / 20 20 20 0 0
COTULLA 65 49 73 36 78 / 20 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 58 75 41 80 / 20 10 20 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 59 71 49 76 / 20 10 20 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB
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