000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201551
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009
.MORNING UPDATE...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE CLOUD-FREE AS
WELL. MIXING HAS ALREADY BEGUN FROM BILLINGS WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EAST TODAY AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RECORD HIGH FOR BILLINGS TODAY IS 56 SET BACK IN 2005 AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE BROKEN. RECORD FOR SHERIDAN IS 59 SET IN 1967 AND
THIS MAY TOO BE BROKEN TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY BEFORE REALITY RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH NO BETTER AGREEMENT IN MODELS TO POINT TO COLDER
TEMPS OR HIGHER POPS THAN CURRENTLY GOING FORECAST.
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT AND EXTENDED COLD SNAP
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXACT TIMING OF FROPA STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT SEEMS TO BE BACK TO
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AGAIN WITH THIS RUN...WITH PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN EC AND GFS. DID NOT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AS SEEMS TO BE WAFFLING A BIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE ONE
DIRECTION OR ANOTHER AS CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.
MAINTAINED ABOVE CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ACCOMPANYING A
SECONDARY...REINFORCING BLAST OF COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVED UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND POTENTIALLY A
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER DENDRIDIC LAYER. RETURNED TO CLIMO TYPE POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BEGINNING MONDAY. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN THE VALLEYS
WHICH WILL BECOME WEAKER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 031/056 031/038 009/014 007/014 003/016 901/014
0/N 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
LVM 057 033/054 028/042 011/022 010/019 004/019 003/020
0/N 00/U 02/O 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
HDN 055 027/054 026/039 009/015 004/015 003/017 902/013
0/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
MLS 049 022/047 020/031 003/011 000/011 901/013 905/012
0/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 32/S 22/S
4BQ 053 024/051 022/038 005/015 002/016 001/016 903/012
0/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 32/S 33/S 22/S
BHK 040 023/043 021/029 000/009 902/007 908/009 910/009
0/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 22/S 22/S 22/S
SHR 058 026/054 025/041 009/014 004/016 003/016 000/011
0/U 00/U 01/B 23/S 33/S 34/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200953
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. A LITTLE BETTER MIXING
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER
60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS AT BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO BIG CHANGE
EXPECTED TODAY. WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY. A SUNNY SKY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR
BILLINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DRAINAGE WINDS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BREEZING CONDITIONS GOING FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH NO BETTER AGREEMENT IN MODELS TO POINT TO COLDER
TEMPS OR HIGHER POPS THAN CURRENTLY GOING FORECAST.
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT AND EXTENDED COLD SNAP
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXACT TIMING OF FROPA STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT SEEMS TO BE BACK TO
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AGAIN WITH THIS RUN...WITH PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN EC AND GFS. DID NOT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AS SEEMS TO BE WAFFLING A BIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE ONE
DIRECTION OR ANOTHER AS CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.
MAINTAINED ABOVE CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ACCOMPANYING A
SECONDARY...REINFORCING BLAST OF COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVED UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND POTENTIALLY A
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER DENDRITIC LAYER. RETURNED TO CLIMO TYPE POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BEGINNING MONDAY. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKEWISE
CONTINUE...WITH SW TO NW WINDS GUSTING TO 15-30 KNOTS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 031/056 031/038 009/014 007/014 003/016 901/014
0/N 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
LVM 057 033/054 028/042 011/022 010/019 004/019 003/020
0/N 00/U 02/O 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
HDN 055 027/054 026/039 009/015 004/015 003/017 902/013
0/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
MLS 049 022/047 020/031 003/011 000/011 901/013 905/012
0/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 32/S 22/S
4BQ 053 024/051 022/038 005/015 002/016 001/016 903/012
0/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 32/S 33/S 22/S
BHK 040 023/043 021/029 000/009 902/007 908/009 910/009
0/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 22/S 22/S 22/S
SHR 058 026/054 025/041 009/014 004/016 003/016 000/011
0/U 00/U 01/B 23/S 33/S 34/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200354
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO EASTERN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AND INCREASED
WINDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN RIVER VALLEYS ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TOWARD THE LOW TO MID 20S
THERE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHTS LOWS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TIGHTENS UP. IN GAP FLOW PRONE
LOCATIONS THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE WILL SQUEEZE WINDS
THROUGH THE NORTH SIDE RIVER VALLEYS RESULTING IN MORNING WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE 700MB FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE ADVISORY TYPE WINDS AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
DRAMATIC PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES COMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
COLD SFC HIGH DROPS OUT OF NW CANADA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED
UP TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT...POISED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY COMING OUT OF NW
CANADA. THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
WITH CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS OUR NORTH. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH
EVOLUTION OF SECONDARY ENERGY...AND THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING OVERRUNNING SNOW POTENTIAL INTO FRI. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C THU NIGHT SHOULD SEE MOIST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IT WILL BE SHALLOW. HAVE
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT HERE. WILL KEEP ABOVE CLIMO POPS GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME WITH SECONDARY ENERGY SOMETIME SAT INTO
SUN. WITH THE 850-700MB LAYER POTENTIALLY IN THE MINUS TEENS COULD
BE A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WHEN THIS HAPPENS...WITH A DEEPER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT THAN THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE ARCTIC. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE
A RAPID TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY FROM FRI THROUGH MON. WITH STRONG
SFC RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO EXPECTED MIX DOWNS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SW-NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-35 KTS ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/060 034/056 031/038 009/014 007/014 003/016 901/014
00/N 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
LVM 029/056 035/056 029/042 011/022 010/019 004/019 003/020
00/N 00/U 02/O 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
HDN 033/053 029/053 025/039 009/015 004/015 003/017 902/012
00/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
MLS 028/050 025/047 021/031 003/011 000/011 901/013 905/009
00/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 32/S 22/S
4BQ 030/054 027/051 023/038 005/015 002/016 001/016 903/013
00/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 32/S 33/S 22/S
BHK 024/041 025/043 021/029 901/009 902/007 908/009 910/007
00/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 22/S 22/S 22/S
SHR 031/058 027/053 024/041 009/014 004/016 003/016 000/012
00/U 00/U 01/B 23/S 33/S 34/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192156
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH RIDGE FIRMLY IN CHARGE OVER REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS
A TOUCH COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY. PROGGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR
OVER REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS PACKAGE...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE. BAKER INVERSION HAS
BEEN STUBBORN LAST FEW DAYS...AND DO NOT SEE ANY GOOD REASON IT
WILL NOT BE AGAIN TOMORROW...SO LOWERED HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. RECORD HIGHS FOR BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN ARE LOW ENOUGH TO
REACH TUESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH RECORD HIGH POSSIBLE
WORDING. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
DRAMATIC PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES COMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
COLD SFC HIGH DROPS OUT OF NW CANADA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED
UP TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT...POISED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY COMING OUT OF NW
CANADA. THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
WITH CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS OUR NORTH. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH
EVOLUTION OF SECONDARY ENERGY...AND THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING OVERRUNNING SNOW POTENTIAL INTO FRI. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C THU NIGHT SHOULD SEE MOIST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IT WILL BE SHALLOW. HAVE
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT HERE. WILL KEEP ABOVE CLIMO POPS GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME WITH SECONDARY ENERGY SOMETIME SAT INTO
SUN. WITH THE 850-700MB LAYER POTENTIALLY IN THE MINUS TEENS COULD
BE A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WHEN THIS HAPPENS...WITH A DEEPER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT THAN THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE ARCTIC. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE
A RAPID TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY FROM FRI THROUGH MON. WITH STRONG
SFC RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO EXPECTED MIX DOWNS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SW-NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 KTS ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/060 034/056 031/038 009/014 007/014 003/016 901/014
00/N 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
LVM 030/056 035/056 029/042 011/022 010/019 004/019 003/020
00/N 00/U 02/O 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
HDN 033/053 029/053 025/039 009/015 004/015 003/017 902/012
00/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 44/S 22/S
MLS 027/050 025/047 021/031 003/011 000/011 901/013 905/009
00/U 00/U 02/S 33/S 33/S 32/S 22/S
4BQ 031/054 027/051 023/038 005/015 002/016 001/016 903/013
00/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 32/S 33/S 22/S
BHK 026/041 025/043 021/029 901/009 902/007 908/009 910/007
00/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 22/S 22/S 22/S
SHR 031/058 027/053 024/041 009/014 004/016 003/016 000/012
00/U 00/U 01/B 23/S 33/S 34/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191616
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
RIDGE IN CONTROL OF REGION WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY. JUST A MINOR TWEAK
TO TEMPS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
SEVERAL CHANGES TO EXTENDED AGAIN TONIGHT...PRIMARILY DUE TO
TIMING OF APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
WITH REGARD TO EXTENDED COLD SNAP.
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THURS AS FROPA SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT NOW...SO PARED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY...KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES FOR THURSDAY.
INCREASED POPS FOR THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MAINTAINED
CLIMO POPS THEREAFTER...AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION....BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUESTIONABLE LATER IN THE PERIOD
SNOW TOTALS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE EXCESSIVELY
HIGH...MAINLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERION.
CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPS UNDER WANING RIDGE ON WED WITH MODERATED
BUT WARM TEMPS THURS AS FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE
ISSUE AS LATER TIMING WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS. GENERALLY
LOWERED TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
FRONT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY STRONG AND CONSISTENTLY KEEPS AIRMASS
STICKING AROUND. BOTH EC AND GFS GIVE 850 MB TEMPS OF -15C...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE TEENS OR LOWER. A REINFORCING
BLAST OF COLD COMES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO APPEARS COLD COULD
BE HERE FOR A WHILE. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. W-NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 KTS ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 034/060 033/057 029/038 009/013 007/018 004/022
0/U 00/N 00/U 02/S 43/S 23/S 22/S
LVM 052 031/060 028/057 027/042 009/025 010/022 006/021
0/U 00/N 00/U 03/O 43/S 43/S 32/S
HDN 057 029/053 028/054 022/039 009/015 004/021 004/022
0/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 43/S 23/S 32/S
MLS 044 027/049 024/047 019/026 004/013 000/015 001/014
0/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 42/S 22/S 22/S
4BQ 052 028/054 026/052 020/034 004/018 001/023 001/022
0/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 42/S 22/S 22/S
BHK 042 026/048 024/044 012/026 901/012 902/009 908/009
0/N 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 22/S 22/S
SHR 058 029/059 026/054 022/036 007/012 003/024 003/020
0/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 42/S 22/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191009
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
309 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ON THE SAME PACE AS YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH NO RECORDS WILL BE REACHED. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY EVEN THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. 700MB WINDS STILL
AROUND 60 KNOTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY TODAY. STRONG
WINDS WILL NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SURFACE INVERSION AND WEAK OMEGA OVER THIS AREA. WEST
TO EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO WHEATLAND COUNTY THROUGH MID DAY.
RECORD TEMPERATURES AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN AS THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES. WARMER AIR SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY AND
THEY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
SEVERAL CHANGES TO EXTENDED AGAIN TONIGHT...PRIMARILY DUE TO
TIMING OF APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
WITH REGARD TO EXTENDED COLD SNAP.
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THURS AS FROPA SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT NOW...SO PARED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY...KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES FOR THURSDAY.
INCREASED POPS FOR THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MAINTAINED
CLIMO POPS THEREAFTER...AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION....BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUESTIONABLE LATER IN THE PERIOD
SNOW TOTALS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE EXCESSIVELY
HIGH...MAINLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERION.
CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPS UNDER WANING RIDGE ON WED WITH MODERATED
BUT WARM TEMPS THURS AS FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE
ISSUE AS LATER TIMING WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS. GENERALLY
LOWERED TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
FRONT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY STRONG AND CONSISTENTLY KEEPS AIRMASS
STICKING AROUND. BOTH EC AND GFS GIVE 850 MB TEMPS OF -15C...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE TEENS OR LOWER. A REINFORCING
BLAST OF COLD COMES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO APPEARS COLD COULD
BE HERE FOR A WHILE. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY...CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 034/060 033/057 029/038 009/013 007/018 004/022
0/N 00/N 00/U 02/S 43/S 23/S 22/S
LVM 058 031/060 028/057 027/042 009/025 010/022 006/021
0/N 00/N 00/U 03/O 43/S 43/S 32/S
HDN 054 029/053 028/054 022/039 009/015 004/021 004/022
0/N 00/U 00/U 02/S 43/S 23/S 32/S
MLS 045 027/049 024/047 019/026 004/013 000/015 001/014
0/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 42/S 22/S 22/S
4BQ 051 028/054 026/052 020/034 004/018 001/023 001/022
0/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 42/S 22/S 22/S
BHK 042 026/048 024/044 012/026 901/012 902/009 908/009
0/N 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 22/S 22/S
SHR 055 029/059 026/054 022/036 007/012 003/024 003/020
0/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 42/S 22/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190347
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
847 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA WAS SENDING SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS WERE MOSTLY
THIN BUT THICKER CLOUDS WERE OVER THE FAR EAST. CLOUDS WILL TRY
TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT BUT THE MILD DAY TODAY AND
LESSENING SNOW COVER WILL HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT. A WEST TO EAST
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A BIT TOO AND THIS
WILL AID IN A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NOT SEEING MUCH TO CHANGE FOR THE REST OF
THE PACKAGE EITHER WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING FROM WEST
TO EAST. SEVERAL MORE MILD DAYS AHEAD BEFORE WINTER RETURNS
THURSDAY. NO UPDATES. HUMPHREY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
CONFIDENCE SLOWLY INCREASING FOR A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. LATEST 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BY
00Z FRIDAY. TYPICAL CHALLENGE WILL BE HIGHS ON THURSDAY AS THIS IS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DAY...WHICH MAY HAVE EARLY HIGHS WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. WILL TRY TO GET THIS THOUGHT ACROSS IN WEATHER
STORY. FOR CHANCES OF MOISTURE...GFS SHOWING A CLASSIC AREA OF
LIGHT QPF PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO AT LEAST 20
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WOULD LIKE TO GO HIGHER BUT STILL HOLDING ME
BACK IS CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. AS IT COMES CLOSER
HOPEFULLY WE CAN RAISE POPS HIGHER. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK TO
BE A HEAVY SNOW THREAT...WITH AT MOST ADVISORY CRITERIA
AMOUNTS...OR LESS. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN FACING SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AGAIN DUE TO
INCREASED CONSISTENCY WITH GFS/ECMWF. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
00Z AT BILLINGS ECMWF HAS -13C AND GFS40 COLDER AROUND -17C. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE TEENS...IF
NOT...LOWER. HAVE BLENDED FORECAST TO ENSEMBLE LOW AS WELL AS
MOSGUIDE AND BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF WHICH IS IN THIS RANGE. CHANCES
OF MOISTURE LOOK CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
SINK SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE OF HOW LONG THIS COLD WILL STICK AROUND IS NOT AS HIGH
AS IT COMING IN. ONE THING FOR SURE...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
RETURN TO CURRENT VERY WARM WEATHER ANYTIME SOON...AT LEAST BY
NEXT SATURDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING
US OUT OF THE COLDEST AIR BUT GFS ACTUALLY BRING ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING SHOT SOUTH. HAVE BLENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH IT`S BETTER
TRACK RECORD THIS SEASON. RASCH
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL SEND SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
SOME WESTERLY BREEZES. THE STRONGEST WINDS (10-20MPH) WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HUMPHREY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/060 035/059 033/057 027/040 009/017 007/024 010/023
00/N 00/N 00/U 04/S 32/S 22/S 22/S
LVM 027/058 033/059 029/057 024/042 009/023 010/030 009/023
00/N 00/U 00/U 04/O 42/S 22/S 22/S
HDN 029/055 028/057 027/054 024/041 009/018 004/028 007/023
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 42/S 12/S 22/S
MLS 025/046 028/054 022/047 017/027 004/016 000/017 003/018
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 22/S 11/B 22/S
4BQ 030/051 028/055 024/052 018/035 004/020 001/024 004/024
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 32/S 11/B 22/S
BHK 025/043 026/051 022/044 008/026 901/014 902/013 902/014
00/N 00/U 00/U 03/S 22/S 11/B 22/S
SHR 026/057 029/060 024/054 022/036 007/015 003/025 004/019
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 43/S 22/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 182203
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST TOWARD WESTERN MONTANA TODAY. 120KT
JET OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTING EAST AS WELL AND SHOULD ALLOW WIND
OVER EASTERN BORDER AREAS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. EVEN
DRIER AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OVER TOMORROW AND SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
HIGH TO HIT...BUT WITH THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE CENTER OF
FORECAST AREA...THE RECORD HIGHS NOT OUT OF REACH FOR TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT TIMES INCLUDING OVERNIGHT PERIODS
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
CONFIDENCE SLOWLY INCREASING FOR A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. LATEST 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BY
00Z FRIDAY. TYPICAL CHALLENGE WILL BE HIGHS ON THURSDAY AS THIS IS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DAY...WHICH MAY HAVE EARLY HIGHS WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. WILL TRY TO GET THIS THOUGHT ACROSS IN WEATHER
STORY. FOR CHANCES OF MOISTURE...GFS SHOWING A CLASSIC AREA OF
LIGHT QPF PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO AT LEAST 20
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WOULD LIKE TO GO HIGHER BUT STILL HOLDING ME
BACK IS CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. AS IT COMES CLOSER
HOPEFULLY WE CAN RAISE POPS HIGHER. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK TO
BE A HEAVY SNOW THREAT...WITH AT MOST ADVISORY CRITERIA
AMOUNTS...OR LESS. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN FACING SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AGAIN DUE TO
INCREASED CONSISTENCY WITH GFS/ECMWF. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
00Z AT BILLINGS ECMWF HAS -13C AND GFS40 COLDER AROUND -17C. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE TEENS...IF
NOT...LOWER. HAVE BLENDED FORECAST TO ENSEMBLE LOW AS WELL AS
MOSGUIDE AND BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF WHICH IS IN THIS RANGE. CHANCES
OF MOISTURE LOOK CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
SINK SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE OF HOW LONG THIS COLD WILL STICK AROUND IS NOT AS HIGH
AS IT COMING IN. ONE THING FOR SURE...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
RETURN TO CURRENT VERY WARM WEATHER ANYTIME SOON...AT LEAST BY
NEXT SATURDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING
US OUT OF THE COLDEST AIR BUT GFS ACTUALLY BRING ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING SHOT SOUTH. HAVE BLENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH IT`S BETTER
TRACK RECORD THIS SEASON. RASCH
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER
LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH. THEY SHOULD DECREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND SURELY
BY SUNSET. RASCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/060 035/059 033/057 027/040 009/017 007/024 010/023
00/N 00/N 00/U 04/S 32/S 22/S 22/S
LVM 027/058 033/059 029/057 024/042 009/023 010/030 009/023
00/N 00/U 00/U 04/O 42/S 22/S 22/S
HDN 029/055 028/057 027/054 024/041 009/018 004/028 007/023
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 42/S 12/S 22/S
MLS 025/046 028/054 022/047 017/027 004/016 000/017 003/018
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 22/S 11/B 22/S
4BQ 030/051 028/055 024/052 018/035 004/020 001/024 004/024
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 32/S 11/B 22/S
BHK 025/043 026/051 022/044 008/026 901/014 902/013 902/014
00/N 00/U 00/U 03/S 22/S 11/B 22/S
SHR 026/057 029/060 024/054 022/036 007/015 003/025 004/019
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/S 43/S 22/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 181607
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS OVER HIGH PLAINS TODAY ARE SLOWLY MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO LOWER LEVELS AS NOTED BY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY. OTHER
CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH EXPECTED AT BILLINGS TODAY AS
TEMPS PUSH TO YESTERDAYS LEVELS. WARMER START IN FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THERE AS WELL. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MODELS
APPEAR PRETTY CONSISTENT ON RIDGE AND FOLLOWING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH FRONT SEEMS TO BE COMING IN A BIT LATER IN EACH
RUN. OVERALL CHANGES TO TEMPS WERE TO RAISE TEMPS BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND COOL TEMPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RIDGE APPEARS TO STAY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT AGAIN
LOOKS SLOWER...NOW COMING IN LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE RAISED TEMPS
FOR TUES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF FRONT
ALLOWING FOR MORE WARMING ON THURSDAY...THIS STILL MAY NOT BE
QUITE WARM ENOUGH FOR THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PREFRONTAL
WARMING POTENTIAL. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS UPSLOPE FLOW
BECOMES MORE OF A PLAYER. FROM FRIDAY ON BEGAN COOLING DOWN
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS
CAME IN MUCH COLDER THIS RUN...AND IS NOW MUCH COLDER THAN THE EC.
WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ATTENTION WITH FUTURE SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY IF
GFS CONTINUES TO JUMP ALL OVER. MAINTAINED GENERALLY CLIMO TYPE POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER
LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH. THEY SHOULD DECREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND SURELY
BY SUNSET. RASCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 035/060 036/061 031/055 024/039 010/020 015/024
0/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 02/S 32/S 22/S
LVM 056 033/058 034/059 029/055 022/046 011/029 015/030
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/O 32/S 22/S
HDN 054 024/056 029/057 023/052 016/035 009/021 011/028
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 32/S 12/S
MLS 047 024/047 027/054 020/040 016/025 003/017 005/017
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 11/B
4BQ 049 028/051 028/055 021/047 014/035 006/022 009/024
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 11/B
BHK 044 022/043 023/051 015/040 007/024 903/015 000/013
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 11/B
SHR 054 030/057 029/060 026/054 016/036 009/023 009/025
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/S 33/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 181003
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A +12C TODAY AND
SHOULD SEE A RECORD HIGH SET AT BILLINGS AND POSSIBLY AT SHERIDAN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OUT OF THE NORTH. IT WILL BE
WINDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL
130 KNOT JET MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING 55 KNOT WINDS AT 700MB BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE DUE TO STRONG OMEGA AND ALSO STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. WEAK SURFACE INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE
PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT AND MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER AIR SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES ON MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MODELS
APPEAR PRETTY CONSISTENT ON RIDGE AND FOLLOWING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH FRONT SEEMS TO BE COMING IN A BIT LATER IN EACH
RUN. OVERALL CHANGES TO TEMPS WERE TO RAISE TEMPS BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND COOL TEMPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RIDGE APPEARS TO STAY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT AGAIN
LOOKS SLOWER...NOW COMING IN LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE RAISED TEMPS
FOR TUES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF FRONT
ALLOWING FOR MORE WARMING ON THURSDAY...THIS STILL MAY NOT BE
QUITE WARM ENOUGH FOR THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PREFRONTAL
WARMING POTENTIAL. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS UPSLOPE FLOW
BECOMES MORE OF A PLAYER. FROM FRIDAY ON BEGAN COOLING DOWN
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS
CAME IN MUCH COLDER THIS RUN...AND IS NOW MUCH COLDER THAN THE EC.
WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ATTENTION WITH FUTURE SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY IF
GFS CONTINUES TO JUMP ALL OVER. MAINTAINED GENERALLY CLIMO TYPE POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY
WESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 035/060 036/061 031/055 024/039 010/020 015/024
0/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 02/S 32/S 22/S
LVM 057 033/058 034/059 029/055 022/046 011/029 015/030
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/O 32/S 22/S
HDN 054 024/056 029/057 023/052 016/035 009/021 011/028
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 32/S 12/S
MLS 046 024/047 027/054 020/040 016/025 003/017 005/017
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 11/B
4BQ 049 028/051 028/055 021/047 014/035 006/022 009/024
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 11/B
BHK 041 022/043 023/051 015/040 007/024 903/015 000/013
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 11/B
SHR 054 030/057 029/060 026/054 016/036 009/023 009/025
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/S 33/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180435
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
ONLY SMALL CHANGES TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO FALL READILY THIS EVENING. SOME READINGS HAVE
NEARED OR REACHED PROJECTED LOWS ALREADY. LOWERED FORECAST MINS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CANADA SHOULD
ROLL IN LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...SO
DID NOT LOWER TOO DRAMATICALLY. A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS BREEZY TONIGHT. THIS TOO SHOULD SERVE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO FAR. ADJUSTED WINDS UP A BIT AT
BILLINGS WHERE DRAINAGE WINDS WERE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
GRADIENT. HUMPHREY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WHICH
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. COOLER TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR MOST PERIODS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET AS THE ECMWF IS THE MUCH COLDER MODEL.
KEPT A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MODELS UNTIL THEY TREND
TOWARDS A UNIFIED SOLUTION. SOLUM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUN. W TO NW SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/059 036/060 036/059 031/053 024/031 013/022 015/028
00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 22/S
LVM 031/056 034/058 034/056 029/049 022/040 013/030 015/033
00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/O 22/S 22/S
HDN 028/052 029/057 029/058 023/052 016/029 009/023 011/028
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 22/S
MLS 023/046 025/049 027/050 020/042 016/021 006/017 005/020
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 21/B 12/S
4BQ 025/050 030/053 028/057 021/049 014/029 009/024 009/026
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 21/B 12/S
BHK 021/043 023/045 023/047 015/041 007/019 003/016 000/016
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 21/B 12/S
SHR 027/054 030/058 029/061 026/052 016/033 008/025 009/028
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/S 22/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172204
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE DOMINANT
PLAYER FOR OUR REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND
CENTER ITSELF OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY MONDAY LEADING TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
MIX IN EACH DAY TO HELP APPROACH OR REACH RECORD HIGHS AT
BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID JANUARY. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH ZERO
POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
INHERITED FORECASTS HAD ALL THIS COVERED...CHANGES FOR THIS
PACKAGE WERE MINIMAL. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WHICH
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. COOLER TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR MOST PERIODS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET AS THE ECMWF IS THE MUCH COLDER MODEL.
KEPT A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MODELS UNTIL THEY TREND
TOWARDS A UNIFIED SOLUTION. SOLUM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
IN THE KLVM AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOLUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/059 036/060 036/059 031/053 024/031 013/022 015/028
00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 22/S
LVM 033/056 034/058 034/056 029/049 022/040 013/030 015/033
00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/O 22/S 22/S
HDN 029/052 029/057 029/058 023/052 016/029 009/023 011/028
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 22/S 22/S
MLS 029/046 025/049 027/050 020/042 016/021 006/017 005/020
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 21/B 12/S
4BQ 032/050 030/053 028/057 021/049 014/029 009/024 009/026
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 21/B 12/S
BHK 023/043 023/045 023/047 015/041 007/019 003/016 000/016
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/S 21/B 12/S
SHR 030/054 030/058 029/061 026/052 016/033 008/025 009/028
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/S 22/S 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
| 
