000
FXUS61 KBTV 201737
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM EST TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW WL DIMINISH BY 02Z AS
DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES THRU 03Z...THEN SOME CLRING AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY...WITH A LARGE SPREAD
EXPECTED ACRS OUR FA...BASED ON CLRING/CLOUDS. FEEL COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE SLV...WHERE LLVL DRAINAGE BASED ON PRES ANALYSIS WL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BTWN -8F AND -15F BY WEDS MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACRS CENTRAL
MI...WITH HTL ALREADY -11F...WHILE APN HAS CLOUDS AND A TEMPS OF
12F. OVERALL TREND WL BE TO TRIM GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES...BUT
LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL PREVENT SLK FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT. CRNT THINKING IS AROUND 0F BTV/RUT...-13F FOR SLK...0 TO -5F
AT MPV/1V4...AND AROUND -10F NEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE NW FLW ALOFT WL CONT ACRS OUR
FA ON WEDS...AS LLVL WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SW. THIS WL HELP
TO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACRS THE
SLV/DACKS...WHILE ANOTHER 5H VORT DROPS ACRS OUR CWA.
FURTHERMORE...LOW TO MID LVL WAA AND THE ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
1000-500MB RH WL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. BASED ON
THIS MOISTURE/LIFT...WL MENTION CHC POPS AFT 18Z ACRS THE
DACKS/SLV ON WEDS...WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.
OVERALL QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS BY
00Z THURS. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS AND 85H TEMPS BTWN -14C AND
-16C...WL TRIM SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE COOLEST GUIDANCE. TEMPS WL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY...A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR FA...AS LLVL
WAA CONTS. OVERALL...BIG PICTURE SHOWS A ZONAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. HOWEVER...BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS...THEREFORE WL
MENTION CHC POPS. FEEL SW LLVL FLW ACRS THE CPV WL LIMIT PRECIP
CHCS THRU THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BTV. WL MENTION SCHC POPS ATTM
ACRS THE CPV. OTHERWISE...QPF WL BE LIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS ON THURSDAY. 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
-11C...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -6C...WHICH WL SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH NEAR 30F POSSIBLE AT BTV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS A RESULT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST AIR OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. READINGS SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A RELATIVELY LONG
TIME. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING APPEARS TO WANT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER ON FRIDAY...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. THIS WILL CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN EARNEST SATURDAY AND WE WILL SEE ONE OF
THOSE DAYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE LOWS IN THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CLEARING SKIES/DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHOULD SEE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
-24C TO -28C RANGE...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COLD SNAP...THUS LOOKING
AT LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ALL AREAS WITH SOME 20 BELOW
READINGS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. THERE SHOULD BE MODERATING CONDITIONS TO START THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WIDELY VARIABLE CIG/VSBY CONDS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC AT TIMES. PERSISTENT
LL SYNOPTIC INVERSION BELOW 3 KFT TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH 12Z WED WITH
SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MVFR/IFR CIGS...ESP MTN SITES. WITH LACK OF
APPRECIABLE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL BE DRIVEN BY WEAK NWRLY (< 10 KTS) FLOW ALOFT AND ANY
RADIATIVE NOCTURNAL BNDRY LYR PROCESSES. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO
SHOWING NEAR SATURATED LOWER LEVELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME HZ/IC FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL OFFER SCT TO OCCNLY BKN
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT MANY LOCALES DURING THIS PERIOD. APPROACH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE FROM THE NW WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING
MID-LVL CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED...WITH FLOW BACKING
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR AT MOST SITES.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR IN SHSN
(MAINLY MTN SITES).
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TO OCCNL IFR IN SHSN WITH
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201633
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1133 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM EST TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW WL DIMINISH BY 02Z AS
DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES THRU 03Z...THEN SOME CLRING AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY...WITH A LARGE SPREAD
EXPECTED ACRS OUR FA...BASED ON CLRING/CLOUDS. FEEL COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE SLV...WHERE LLVL DRAINAGE BASED ON PRES ANALYSIS WL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BTWN -8F AND -15F BY WEDS MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACRS CENTRAL
MI...WITH HTL ALREADY -11F...WHILE APN HAS CLOUDS AND A TEMPS OF
12F. OVERALL TREND WL BE TO TRIM GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES...BUT
LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL PREVENT SLK FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT. CRNT THINKING IS AROUND 0F BTV/RUT...-13F FOR SLK...0 TO -5F
AT MPV/1V4...AND AROUND -10F NEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE NW FLW ALOFT WL CONT ACRS OUR
FA ON WEDS...AS LLVL WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SW. THIS WL HELP
TO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACRS THE
SLV/DACKS...WHILE ANOTHER 5H VORT DROPS ACRS OUR CWA.
FURTHERMORE...LOW TO MID LVL WAA AND THE ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
1000-500MB RH WL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. BASED ON
THIS MOISTURE/LIFT...WL MENTION CHC POPS AFT 18Z ACRS THE
DACKS/SLV ON WEDS...WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.
OVERALL QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS BY
00Z THURS. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS AND 85H TEMPS BTWN -14C AND
-16C...WL TRIM SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE COOLEST GUIDANCE. TEMPS WL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY...A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR FA...AS LLVL
WAA CONTS. OVERALL...BIG PICTURE SHOWS A ZONAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. HOWEVER...BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS...THEREFORE WL
MENTION CHC POPS. FEEL SW LLVL FLW ACRS THE CPV WL LIMIT PRECIP
CHCS THRU THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BTV. WL MENTION SCHC POPS ATTM
ACRS THE CPV. OTHERWISE...QPF WL BE LIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS ON THURSDAY. 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
-11C...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -6C...WHICH WL SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH NEAR 30F POSSIBLE AT BTV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS A RESULT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST AIR OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. READINGS SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A RELATIVELY LONG
TIME. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING APPEARS TO WANT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER ON FRIDAY...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. THIS WILL CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN EARNEST SATURDAY AND WE WILL SEE ONE OF
THOSE DAYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE LOWS IN THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CLEARING SKIES/DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHOULD SEE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
-24C TO -28C RANGE...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COLD SNAP...THUS LOOKING
AT LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ALL AREAS WITH SOME 20 BELOW
READINGS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. THERE SHOULD BE MODERATING CONDITIONS TO START THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND TODAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND THESE WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z AS
WELL. VISIBILITIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND EVENTUALLY HAVE A DIRECTION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACRS THE RGN FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC CDFNT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201143
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
643 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TONIGHT WL BE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. BIG PICTURE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH 5H/7H LOW OVER NORTHERN NY
ATTM. THIS CLOSED CIRCULATION WL CONT TO TRACK NE TODAY AND
WEAKEN...WHILE LEFTOVER 850-700MB MOISTURE LINGERS ACRS OUR
NORTHERN CWA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY SFC FLW DOWN
THE CPV...WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE SOME
MORE VERY -SN. REVIEWING THE OBS FROM 04Z YESTERDAY TO 04Z THIS
EVENING AT BTV SHOWS...WE HAVE HAD 21 OUT OF 24 HRS OF
-SN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CPV CONVERGENCE ZN. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GOOD MOISTURE THRU 800MB TODAY...BUT VERY WEAK FLW THRU 22Z...THEN
AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA...LLVL NW FLW INCREASES AND A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WL REDEVELOP BTWN 22-02Z TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. WL MENTION FLURRIES CPV TODAY WITH CHC
POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFF BY TONIGHT. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WL BE
TRICKY...BASED ON NORTHERLY FLW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS TODAY. BASED ON 925MB TEMPS AROUND -14C AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 515DAM...WL MENTION HIGHS L/M10S
SLK/NEK/MSS...U10S BTV/RUT...L/M20S VSF...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WL OCCUR.
TONIGHT...PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW WL DIMINISH BY 02Z AS
DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES THRU 03Z...THEN SOME CLRING AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY...WITH A LARGE SPREAD
EXPECTED ACRS OUR FA...BASED ON CLRING/CLOUDS. FEEL COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE SLV...WHERE LLVL DRAINAGE BASED ON PRES ANALYSIS WL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BTWN -8F AND -15F BY WEDS MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACRS CENTRAL
MI...WITH HTL ALREADY -11F...WHILE APN HAS CLOUDS AND A TEMPS OF
12F. OVERALL TREND WL BE TO TRIM GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES...BUT
LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL PREVENT SLK FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT. CRNT THINKING IS AROUND 0F BTV/RUT...-13F FOR SLK...0 TO -5F
AT MPV/1V4...AND AROUND -10F NEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE NW FLW ALOFT WL CONT ACRS OUR
FA ON WEDS...AS LLVL WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SW. THIS WL HELP
TO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACRS THE
SLV/DACKS...WHILE ANOTHER 5H VORT DROPS ACRS OUR CWA.
FURTHERMORE...LOW TO MID LVL WAA AND THE ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
1000-500MB RH WL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. BASED ON
THIS MOISTURE/LIFT...WL MENTION CHC POPS AFT 18Z ACRS THE
DACKS/SLV ON WEDS...WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.
OVERALL QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS BY
00Z THURS. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS AND 85H TEMPS BTWN -14C AND
-16C...WL TRIM SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE COOLEST GUIDANCE. TEMPS WL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY...A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR FA...AS LLVL
WAA CONTS. OVERALL...BIG PICTURE SHOWS A ZONAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. HOWEVER...BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS...THEREFORE WL
MENTION CHC POPS. FEEL SW LLVL FLW ACRS THE CPV WL LIMIT PRECIP
CHCS THRU THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BTV. WL MENTION SCHC POPS ATTM
ACRS THE CPV. OTHERWISE...QPF WL BE LIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS ON THURSDAY. 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
-11C...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -6C...WHICH WL SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH NEAR 30F POSSIBLE AT BTV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS A RESULT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST AIR OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. READINGS SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A RELATIVELY LONG
TIME. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING APPEARS TO WANT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER ON FRIDAY...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. THIS WILL CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN EARNEST SATURDAY AND WE WILL SEE ONE OF
THOSE DAYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE LOWS IN THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CLEARING SKIES/DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHOULD SEE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
-24C TO -28C RANGE...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COLD SNAP...THUS LOOKING
AT LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ALL AREAS WITH SOME 20 BELOW
READINGS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. THERE SHOULD BE MODERATING CONDITIONS TO START THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND TODAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND THESE WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z AS
WELL. VISIBILITIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND EVENTUALLY HAVE A DIRECTION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACRS THE RGN FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC CDFNT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200844
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TONIGHT WL BE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. BIG PICTURE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH 5H/7H LOW OVER NORTHERN NY
ATTM. THIS CLOSED CIRCULATION WL CONT TO TRACK NE TODAY AND
WEAKEN...WHILE LEFTOVER 850-700MB MOISTURE LINGERS ACRS OUR
NORTHERN CWA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY SFC FLW DOWN
THE CPV...WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE SOME
MORE VERY -SN. REVIEWING THE OBS FROM 04Z YESTERDAY TO 04Z THIS
EVENING AT BTV SHOWS...WE HAVE HAD 21 OUT OF 24 HRS OF
-SN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CPV CONVERGENCE ZN. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GOOD MOISTURE THRU 800MB TODAY...BUT VERY WEAK FLW THRU 22Z...THEN
AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA...LLVL NW FLW INCREASES AND A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WL REDEVELOP BTWN 22-02Z TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. WL MENTION FLURRIES CPV TODAY WITH CHC
POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFF BY TONIGHT. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WL BE
TRICKY...BASED ON NORTHERLY FLW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS TODAY. BASED ON 925MB TEMPS AROUND -14C AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 515DAM...WL MENTION HIGHS L/M10S
SLK/NEK/MSS...U10S BTV/RUT...L/M20S VSF...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WL OCCUR.
TONIGHT...PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW WL DIMINISH BY 02Z AS
DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES THRU 03Z...THEN SOME CLRING AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY...WITH A LARGE SPREAD
EXPECTED ACRS OUR FA...BASED ON CLRING/CLOUDS. FEEL COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE SLV...WHERE LLVL DRAINAGE BASED ON PRES ANALYSIS WL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BTWN -8F AND -15F BY WEDS MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACRS CENTRAL
MI...WITH HTL ALREADY -11F...WHILE APN HAS CLOUDS AND A TEMPS OF
12F. OVERALL TREND WL BE TO TRIM GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES...BUT
LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL PREVENT SLK FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT. CRNT THINKING IS AROUND 0F BTV/RUT...-13F FOR SLK...0 TO -5F
AT MPV/1V4...AND AROUND -10F NEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE NW FLW ALOFT WL CONT ACRS OUR
FA ON WEDS...AS LLVL WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SW. THIS WL HELP
TO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACRS THE
SLV/DACKS...WHILE ANOTHER 5H VORT DROPS ACRS OUR CWA.
FURTHERMORE...LOW TO MID LVL WAA AND THE ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
1000-500MB RH WL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. BASED ON
THIS MOISTURE/LIFT...WL MENTION CHC POPS AFT 18Z ACRS THE
DACKS/SLV ON WEDS...WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.
OVERALL QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS BY
00Z THURS. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS AND 85H TEMPS BTWN -14C AND
-16C...WL TRIM SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE COOLEST GUIDANCE. TEMPS WL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY...A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR FA...AS LLVL
WAA CONTS. OVERALL...BIG PICTURE SHOWS A ZONAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. HOWEVER...BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS...THEREFORE WL
MENTION CHC POPS. FEEL SW LLVL FLW ACRS THE CPV WL LIMIT PRECIP
CHCS THRU THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BTV. WL MENTION SCHC POPS ATTM
ACRS THE CPV. OTHERWISE...QPF WL BE LIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS ON THURSDAY. 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
-11C...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -6C...WHICH WL SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH NEAR 30F POSSIBLE AT BTV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS A RESULT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST AIR OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. READINGS SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A RELATIVELY LONG
TIME. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING APPEARS TO WANT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER ON FRIDAY...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. THIS WILL CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN EARNEST SATURDAY AND WE WILL SEE ONE OF
THOSE DAYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE LOWS IN THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CLEARING SKIES/DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHOULD SEE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
-24C TO -28C RANGE...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COLD SNAP...THUS LOOKING
AT LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ALL AREAS WITH SOME 20 BELOW
READINGS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. THERE SHOULD BE MODERATING CONDITIONS TO START THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXIST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...IN THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE...BUT THROUGH 12Z
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
EXIST WITH VISIBILITIES AS THEY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...BUT THROUGH 12Z THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A TREND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR 06Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACRS THE RGN FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC CDFNT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200547
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH
JUST SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS AND POPS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING THE AREA UNSETTLED THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AN DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN NY AND VT...SO EXPECT GREATER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES THEN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VT THAT HAS
ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ESSEX
COUNTY NY. IT WILL BE CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BREAKS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. WEAK CAA TONIGHT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...WHATS LEFT OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...PASSING OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z WED. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF SHORE...DEFINITELY NOT IMPACTING OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR MOUNTAIN
ZONES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH CAA STILL OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH NW FLOW WEAKENS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING A
DIFFICULT CALL ON LOW TEMPS. THERE MAY BE QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPS
BETWEEN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARING AND MOUNTAINS THAT GET STUCK IN
THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT NEXT MENTION OF POPS
FOR OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND LOOKS LIKE
JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE FOR NOW. A WEAK WARM FRONT IN THE AREA
WILL BRING SOME WEAK WAA TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WEST THAN NORTHWEST
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CEASE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS EXPECT
THURSDAY TO BE DRY...THOUGH STILL CLOUDY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER ON FRIDAY. PRETTY FAST MOVING SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING WITH EVENT OCCURRING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. BIG STORY FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WILL BE ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S BELOW
ZERO WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS LOWERING TO 500 DAM. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXIST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...IN THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE...BUT THROUGH 12Z
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
EXIST WITH VISIBILITIES AS THEY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...BUT THROUGH 12Z THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A TREND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR 06Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACRS THE RGN FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC CDFNT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200100
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH
JUST SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS AND POPS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING THE AREA UNSETTLED THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AN DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN NY AND VT...SO EXPECT GREATER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES THEN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VT THAT HAS
ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ESSEX
COUNTY NY. IT WILL BE CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BREAKS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. WEAK CAA TONIGHT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...WHATS LEFT OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...PASSING OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z WED. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF SHORE...DEFINITELY NOT IMPACTING OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR MOUNTAIN
ZONES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH CAA STILL OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH NW FLOW WEAKENS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING A
DIFFICULT CALL ON LOW TEMPS. THERE MAY BE QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPS
BETWEEN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARING AND MOUNTAINS THAT GET STUCK IN
THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT NEXT MENTION OF POPS
FOR OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND LOOKS LIKE
JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE FOR NOW. A WEAK WARM FRONT IN THE AREA
WILL BRING SOME WEAK WAA TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WEST THAN NORTHWEST
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CEASE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS EXPECT
THURSDAY TO BE DRY...THOUGH STILL CLOUDY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER ON FRIDAY. PRETTY FAST MOVING SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING WITH EVENT OCCURRING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. BIG STORY FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WILL BE ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S BELOW
ZERO WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS LOWERING TO 500 DAM. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS STLT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS WITH CIGS
RANGING FROM 2500 FT TO 5000 FT ACROSS THE REGION AND UPSTREAM.
EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY MVFR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR TUESDAY PM. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHWRS
TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KRUT. VSBYS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
IN SNOW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY AT KBTV. EXPECT VFR VSBYS DURING TUESDAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR 00Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACRS THE RGN FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC CDFNT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200021
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND WEAKEN...LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA. DECENT
NW FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NW FACING SLOPES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY...BUT HAVE
FORECASTED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING TEMPS
COULD QUICKLY DROP...BUT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED TO SPOTS WITH
CLEARING. RIGHT NOW DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE VERY MUCH
CLEARING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN 10 DEGREES. VORT PRODUCING AND ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA...CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH
AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...WHATS LEFT OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...PASSING OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z WED. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF SHORE...DEFINITELY NOT IMPACTING OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR MOUNTAIN
ZONES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH CAA STILL OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH NW FLOW WEAKENS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING A
DIFFICULT CALL ON LOW TEMPS. THERE MAY BE QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPS
BETWEEN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARING AND MOUNTAINS THAT GET STUCK IN
THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT NEXT MENTION OF POPS
FOR OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND LOOKS LIKE
JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE FOR NOW. A WEAK WARM FRONT IN THE AREA
WILL BRING SOME WEAK WAA TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WEST THAN NORTHWEST
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CEASE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS EXPECT
THURSDAY TO BE DRY...THOUGH STILL CLOUDY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER ON FRIDAY. PRETTY FAST MOVING SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING WITH EVENT OCCURRING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. BIG STORY FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WILL BE ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S BELOW
ZERO WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS LOWERING TO 500 DAM. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS STLT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS WITH CIGS
RANGING FROM 2500 FT TO 5000 FT ACROSS THE REGION AND UPSTREAM.
EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY MVFR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR TUESDAY PM. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHWRS
TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KRUT. VSBYS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
IN SNOW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY AT KBTV. EXPECT VFR VSBYS DURING TUESDAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR 00Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACRS THE RGN FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC CDFNT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 192039
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND WEAKEN...LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA. DECENT
NW FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NW FACING SLOPES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY...BUT HAVE
FORECASTED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING TEMPS
COULD QUICKLY DROP...BUT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED TO SPOTS WITH
CLEARING. RIGHT NOW DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE VERY MUCH
CLEARING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN 10 DEGREES. VORT PRODUCING AND ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA...CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH
AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...WHATS LEFT OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...PASSING OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z WED. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF SHORE...DEFINITELY NOT IMPACTING OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR MOUNTAIN
ZONES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH CAA STILL OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH NW FLOW WEAKENS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING A
DIFFICULT CALL ON LOW TEMPS. THERE MAY BE QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPS
BETWEEN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARING AND MOUNTAINS THAT GET STUCK IN
THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT NEXT MENTION OF POPS
FOR OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND LOOKS LIKE
JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE FOR NOW. A WEAK WARM FRONT IN THE AREA
WILL BRING SOME WEAK WAA TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WEST THAN NORTHWEST
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CEASE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS EXPECT
THURSDAY TO BE DRY...THOUGH STILL CLOUDY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER ON FRIDAY. PRETTY FAST MOVING SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING WITH EVENT OCCURRING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. BIG STORY FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WILL BE ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S BELOW
ZERO WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS LOWERING TO 500 DAM. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AND
UPSTREAM. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH VSBY GENERALLY VFR. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING
NOW AT KMSS AND KBTV ON NORTHERLY VALLEY DRAINAGE FLOW LOWERING
VSBY DOWN TO IFR. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN TAPER TO MVFR AFTER 00Z.
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191753
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1116 AM EST MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A SHORT ZONE UPDATE TO
REMOVE MORNING WORDING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CUTOFF MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH POTENT
5H VORT QUICKLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST. THIS
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH SOME 1000-500MB MOISTURE WL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER 5H VORT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WL ROTATE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS
TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS. BOTH NAM12/GFS SHOW DEEPEST
1000-500MB MOISTURE FIELDS...ALONG WITH BEST PVA/Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...NORTH AND WEST OF A TICONDEROGA TO NEWPORT LINE.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE 7H LOW AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE TROF ACRS
OUR NNY INTO NORTHERN VT ZNS...WL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS. WL MENTION LIKELY
POPS WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 2" FOR THE
DACKS/NORTHERN GREENS WITH AN INCH OR LESS FOR SLV/CPV...AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -8C
WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER 85H TEMPS COOL A
DEGREE OR SO...BUT WITH BETTER MIXING TODAY...FEEL TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CRNT THINKING IS M/U20S
BTV/PBG/RUT/VSF TO L20S NEK/SLK/MSS...NORTH WINDS COULD KEEP
CPV/SLV SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPS ACRS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA...WITH AXIS OF INCREASED 1000-500MB RH FROM
NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING NW FLW BEHIND WEAK SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED -SW. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACRS
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
THRU 12Z TUES. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WL BE TRICKY...BASED ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW. FIRST...THOUGHT WAS
TO MENTION TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
COLD AIRMASS JUST TO OUR NORTH...I WILL KEEP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. IF MORE CLRING OCCURS THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPS WL NEED
TO BE CUT BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW PACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS OUR
FA...AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA LATE TUES
INTO WEDS. WEAK LLVL CAA CONTS FOR TUES...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN -13C AND -15C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. THESE TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 20F AT BTV/RUT/PBG TO L/M TEENS MTNS/NEK/SLK.
BASED ON WEAK UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...AND STEEP
SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES...WL MENTION CHC POPS FOR MTN ZNS ON
TUES.
TUES NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES ACRS OUR CWA...AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOW SOME LLVL MOISTURE BTWN SFC-800MB ASSOCIATED WITH NW
FLW...WHICH MAYBE E JUST THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS. TEMPS WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY AND
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...UPSTREAM TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA RANGE FROM -15F IN THE CLRING TO +12F IN THE
CLOUDS. I WOULD EXPECT THIS TYPE OF RANGE ACRS OUR FA ON TUES
NIGHT...GIVEN SFC SETUP AND LLVL THERMAL PROFILE.
WEDS...A PROGRESSIVE NW FLW ALOFT CONTS WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THIS ENERGY WL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...BUT 1000-500MB RH FIELDS INCREASE >70%...ALONG WITH SOME
850-700MB WAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SW. OVERALL...QPF WL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -18C ACRS THE NEK TO
-10C ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV...THEREFORE EXPECT A LARGE THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA FROM SW TO NE. THINKING L10S FOR NEK/MTNS TO
L20S SOUTHERN SLV ON WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
TO BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AS WELL AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR...NOT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS PAST WEEK...BUT LOOKING
AT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO SUNDAY SHOULD BE AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AND
UPSTREAM. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VSBY GENERALLY VFR. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING NOW AT
KMSS AND KBTV ON NORTHERLY VALLEY DRAINAGE FLOW LOWERING VSBY
DOWN TO IFR. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
THEN TAPER TO MVFR AFTER 00Z.
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191622
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1122 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1116 AM EST MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A SHORT ZONE UPDATE TO
REMOVE MORNING WORDING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CUTOFF MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH POTENT
5H VORT QUICKLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST. THIS
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH SOME 1000-500MB MOISTURE WL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER 5H VORT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WL ROTATE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS
TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS. BOTH NAM12/GFS SHOW DEEPEST
1000-500MB MOISTURE FIELDS...ALONG WITH BEST PVA/Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...NORTH AND WEST OF A TICONDEROGA TO NEWPORT LINE.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE 7H LOW AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE TROF ACRS
OUR NNY INTO NORTHERN VT ZNS...WL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS. WL MENTION LIKELY
POPS WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 2" FOR THE
DACKS/NORTHERN GREENS WITH AN INCH OR LESS FOR SLV/CPV...AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -8C
WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER 85H TEMPS COOL A
DEGREE OR SO...BUT WITH BETTER MIXING TODAY...FEEL TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CRNT THINKING IS M/U20S
BTV/PBG/RUT/VSF TO L20S NEK/SLK/MSS...NORTH WINDS COULD KEEP
CPV/SLV SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPS ACRS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA...WITH AXIS OF INCREASED 1000-500MB RH FROM
NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING NW FLW BEHIND WEAK SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED -SW. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACRS
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
THRU 12Z TUES. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WL BE TRICKY...BASED ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW. FIRST...THOUGHT WAS
TO MENTION TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
COLD AIRMASS JUST TO OUR NORTH...I WILL KEEP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. IF MORE CLRING OCCURS THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPS WL NEED
TO BE CUT BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW PACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS OUR
FA...AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA LATE TUES
INTO WEDS. WEAK LLVL CAA CONTS FOR TUES...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN -13C AND -15C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. THESE TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 20F AT BTV/RUT/PBG TO L/M TEENS MTNS/NEK/SLK.
BASED ON WEAK UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...AND STEEP
SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES...WL MENTION CHC POPS FOR MTN ZNS ON
TUES.
TUES NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES ACRS OUR CWA...AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOW SOME LLVL MOISTURE BTWN SFC-800MB ASSOCIATED WITH NW
FLW...WHICH MAYBE E JUST THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS. TEMPS WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY AND
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...UPSTREAM TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA RANGE FROM -15F IN THE CLRING TO +12F IN THE
CLOUDS. I WOULD EXPECT THIS TYPE OF RANGE ACRS OUR FA ON TUES
NIGHT...GIVEN SFC SETUP AND LLVL THERMAL PROFILE.
WEDS...A PROGRESSIVE NW FLW ALOFT CONTS WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THIS ENERGY WL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...BUT 1000-500MB RH FIELDS INCREASE >70%...ALONG WITH SOME
850-700MB WAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SW. OVERALL...QPF WL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -18C ACRS THE NEK TO
-10C ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV...THEREFORE EXPECT A LARGE THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA FROM SW TO NE. THINKING L10S FOR NEK/MTNS TO
L20S SOUTHERN SLV ON WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
TO BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AS WELL AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR...NOT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS PAST WEEK...BUT LOOKING
AT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO SUNDAY SHOULD BE AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THE LIGHT SNOW PREVIOUSLY OVER THE AREA IS MOVING
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. THE SNOW SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT
COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 12Z-18Z
TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191136
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH POTENT 5H VORT
QUICKLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED
WITH SOME 1000-500MB MOISTURE WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
5H VORT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WL ROTATE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW
SHOWERS. BOTH NAM12/GFS SHOW DEEPEST 1000-500MB MOISTURE
FIELDS...ALONG WITH BEST PVA/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...NORTH AND WEST
OF A TICONDEROGA TO NEWPORT LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE 7H LOW
AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE TROF ACRS OUR NNY INTO NORTHERN VT
ZNS...WL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE MTNS. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF A TRACE TO 2" FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN GREENS WITH AN INCH OR
LESS FOR SLV/CPV...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. PROGGED 925MB
TEMPS ARE NEAR -8C WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER
85H TEMPS COOL A DEGREE OR SO...BUT WITH BETTER MIXING
TODAY...FEEL TEMPS WL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CRNT
THINKING IS M/U20S BTV/PBG/RUT/VSF TO L20S NEK/SLK/MSS...NORTH
WINDS COULD KEEP CPV/SLV SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. WEAK BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPS ACRS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA...WITH AXIS OF INCREASED 1000-500MB RH FROM
NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING NW FLW BEHIND WEAK SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED -SW. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACRS THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS THRU 12Z
TUES. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WL BE TRICKY...BASED ON CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW. FIRST...THOUGHT WAS TO MENTION TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE...BUT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...I WILL KEEP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. IF MORE CLRING OCCURS
THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPS WL NEED TO BE CUT BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW PACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS OUR
FA...AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA LATE TUES
INTO WEDS. WEAK LLVL CAA CONTS FOR TUES...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN -13C AND -15C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. THESE TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 20F AT BTV/RUT/PBG TO L/M TEENS MTNS/NEK/SLK.
BASED ON WEAK UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...AND STEEP
SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES...WL MENTION CHC POPS FOR MTN ZNS ON
TUES.
TUES NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES ACRS OUR CWA...AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOW SOME LLVL MOISTURE BTWN SFC-800MB ASSOCIATED WITH NW
FLW...WHICH MAYBE E JUST THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS. TEMPS WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY AND
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...UPSTREAM TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA RANGE FROM -15F IN THE CLRING TO +12F IN THE
CLOUDS. I WOULD EXPECT THIS TYPE OF RANGE ACRS OUR FA ON TUES
NIGHT...GIVEN SFC SETUP AND LLVL THERMAL PROFILE.
WEDS...A PROGRESSIVE NW FLW ALOFT CONTS WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THIS ENERGY WL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...BUT 1000-500MB RH FIELDS INCREASE >70%...ALONG WITH SOME
850-700MB WAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SW. OVERALL...QPF WL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -18C ACRS THE NEK TO
-10C ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV...THEREFORE EXPECT A LARGE THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA FROM SW TO NE. THINKING L10S FOR NEK/MTNS TO
L20S SOUTHERN SLV ON WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
TO BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AS WELL AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR...NOT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS PAST WEEK...BUT LOOKING
AT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO SUNDAY SHOULD BE AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THE LIGHT SNOW PREVIOUSLY OVER THE AREA IS MOVING
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. THE SNOW SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT
COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 12Z-18Z
TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190827
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH POTENT 5H
VORT QUICKLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST. THIS
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH SOME 1000-500MB MOISTURE WL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER 5H VORT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WL ROTATE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS TO
PRODUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS. BOTH NAM12/GFS SHOW DEEPEST 1000-500MB
MOISTURE FIELDS...ALONG WITH BEST PVA/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...NORTH
AND WEST OF A TICONDEROGA TO NEWPORT LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
7H LOW AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE TROF ACRS OUR NNY INTO NORTHERN VT
ZNS...WL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE MTNS. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF A TRACE TO 2" FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN GREENS WITH AN INCH OR
LESS FOR SLV/CPV...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. PROGGED 925MB
TEMPS ARE NEAR -8C WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER
85H TEMPS COOL A DEGREE OR SO...BUT WITH BETTER MIXING
TODAY...FEEL TEMPS WL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CRNT
THINKING IS M/U20S BTV/PBG/RUT/VSF TO L20S NEK/SLK/MSS...NORTH
WINDS COULD KEEP CPV/SLV SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. WEAK BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPS ACRS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA...WITH AXIS OF INCREASED 1000-500MB RH FROM
NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING NW FLW BEHIND WEAK SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED -SW. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACRS THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS THRU 12Z
TUES. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WL BE TRICKY...BASED ON CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW. FIRST...THOUGHT WAS TO MENTION TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE...BUT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...I WILL KEEP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. IF MORE CLRING OCCURS
THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPS WL NEED TO BE CUT BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW PACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS OUR
FA...AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA LATE TUES
INTO WEDS. WEAK LLVL CAA CONTS FOR TUES...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN -13C AND -15C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. THESE TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 20F AT BTV/RUT/PBG TO L/M TEENS MTNS/NEK/SLK.
BASED ON WEAK UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...AND STEEP
SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES...WL MENTION CHC POPS FOR MTN ZNS ON
TUES.
TUES NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES ACRS OUR CWA...AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOW SOME LLVL MOISTURE BTWN SFC-800MB ASSOCIATED WITH NW
FLW...WHICH MAYBE E JUST THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS. TEMPS WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY AND
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...UPSTREAM TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA RANGE FROM -15F IN THE CLRING TO +12F IN THE
CLOUDS. I WOULD EXPECT THIS TYPE OF RANGE ACRS OUR FA ON TUES
NIGHT...GIVEN SFC SETUP AND LLVL THERMAL PROFILE.
WEDS...A PROGRESSIVE NW FLW ALOFT CONTS WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THIS ENERGY WL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...BUT 1000-500MB RH FIELDS INCREASE >70%...ALONG WITH SOME
850-700MB WAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SW. OVERALL...QPF WL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 925MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -18C ACRS THE NEK TO
-10C ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV...THEREFORE EXPECT A LARGE THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA FROM SW TO NE. THINKING L10S FOR NEK/MTNS TO
L20S SOUTHERN SLV ON WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
TO BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AS WELL AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR...NOT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS PAST WEEK...BUT LOOKING
AT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO SUNDAY SHOULD BE AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW PERSIST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z TONIGHT...BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY BEGINS TO TAPER
OFF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AFTER 02Z.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 06Z-18Z
TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190547
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AS THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 837 PM EST SUNDAY...THE STALLED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A SURF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NE COAST. THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL BE TO FAR TO THE EAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER VT/NY. ONLY EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE CWA...EXCEPT OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR CTY
VT...WERE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR BEFORE 06Z. ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US OVC
TONIGHT...KEPT TEMPS NEAR STEADY AS WE ARE WELL INSULATED. WNDS
WILL BE VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL
JUST NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST SUNDAY...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A WEAKER VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE ARE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE DACKS AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES...LOOKING AT TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.
ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ONLY
A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED...IF THAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH CAA USHERED IN ON NW FLOW AND 850 TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE DECLINE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW CONTINUING. UPPER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...EXITING
OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS ON TUESDAY
THEN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO...BASED ON CAA FLOW CONTINUING
AND 850 TEMPS DECLINING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EST SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING WITH REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IMPACTING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AN
EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING THE US/CA BORDER. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THIS MORNINGS 12Z
RUN...MEANWHILE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
NONETHELESS...SEEMS THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW PERSIST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z TONIGHT...BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY BEGINS TO TAPER
OFF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AFTER 02Z.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 06Z-18Z
TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190149
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
849 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AS THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 837 PM EST SUNDAY...THE STALLED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A SURF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NE COAST. THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL BE TO FAR TO THE EAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER VT/NY. ONLY EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE CWA...EXCEPT OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR CTY
VT...WERE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR BEFORE 06Z. ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US OVC
TONIGHT...KEPT TEMPS NEAR STEADY AS WE ARE WELL INSULATED. WNDS
WILL BE VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL
JUST NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST SUNDAY...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A WEAKER VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE ARE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE DACKS AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES...LOOKING AT TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.
ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ONLY
A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED...IF THAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH CAA USHERED IN ON NW FLOW AND 850 TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE DECLINE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW CONTINUING. UPPER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...EXITING
OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS ON TUESDAY
THEN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO...BASED ON CAA FLOW CONTINUING
AND 850 TEMPS DECLINING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EST SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING WITH REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IMPACTING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AN
EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING THE US/CA BORDER. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THIS MORNINGS 12Z
RUN...MEANWHILE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
NONETHELESS...SEEMS THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS FA THIS EVENING. PREVAILING CONDITIONS
VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHWRS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVRNGHT AS UPPER LOW APRCHS
FROM GRTLKS. EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR AND
LOCALLY DOWN TO IFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KMPV LATE TONIGHT
(AFTER 08Z) THROUGH MONDAY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 00Z-18Z
TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190002
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
702 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AS THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF ENERGY TRANSFER FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE COD. UPPER LEVEL TROF IS BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED BACK INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE TO TWO INCHES. MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLAYING A PART IN THE LACK OF SNOWFALL WE HAVE
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOWS THAT AFFECTED THE
REGION TODAY HAVE EXITED THE REGION. NAM12 HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD
FEEL FOR THIS SYSTEM...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH QPF ENDING BY 21Z.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...OR JUST DROP A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST SUNDAY...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A WEAKER VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE ARE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE DACKS AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES...LOOKING AT TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.
ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ONLY
A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED...IF THAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH CAA USHERED IN ON NW FLOW AND 850 TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE DECLINE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW CONTINUING. UPPER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...EXITING
OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS ON TUESDAY
THEN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO...BASED ON CAA FLOW CONTINUING
AND 850 TEMPS DECLINING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EST SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING WITH REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IMPACTING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AN
EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING THE US/CA BORDER. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THIS MORNINGS 12Z
RUN...MEANWHILE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
NONETHELESS...SEEMS THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS FA THIS EVENING. PREVAILING CONDITIONS
VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHWRS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVRNGHT AS UPPER LOW APRCHS
FROM GRTLKS. EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR AND
LOCALLY DOWN TO IFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KMPV LATE TONIGHT
(AFTER 08Z) THROUGH MONDAY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 00Z-18Z
TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 182131
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AS THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF ENERGY TRANSFER FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE COD. UPPER LEVEL TROF IS BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED BACK INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE TO TWO INCHES. MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLAYING A PART IN THE LACK OF SNOWFALL WE HAVE
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOWS THAT AFFECTED THE
REGION TODAY HAVE EXITED THE REGION. NAM12 HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD
FEEL FOR THIS SYSTEM...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH QPF ENDING BY 21Z.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...OR JUST DROP A COUPLE
DEGREES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST SUNDAY...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A WEAKER VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE ARE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE DACKS AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES...LOOKING AT TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.
ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ONLY
A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED...IF THAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH CAA USHERED IN ON NW FLOW AND 850 TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE DECLINE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW CONTINUING. UPPER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...EXITING
OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS ON TUESDAY
THEN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO...BASED ON CAA FLOW CONTINUING
AND 850 TEMPS DECLINING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EST SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING WITH REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IMPACTING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AN
EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING THE US/CA BORDER. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THIS MORNINGS 12Z
RUN...MEANWHILE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
NONETHELESS...SEEMS THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR AVIATION PURPOSES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND FCATS BECOMING VFR. SECOND AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW THOUGH IS PUSHING NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHSN TO KSLK AND KMSS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NW OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WITH CIGS VSBY
MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALLY DOWN TO IFR AT KSLK/KMSS/KMPV THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THEN
AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181950
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT BY TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1221 PM EST SUNDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO DROP POPS
A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN
THAT AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECMG CUTOFF AS
STG 140 KNT JET ROUNDS TROF BASE. IN ADDITION...STG 850-700MB WAA
AND DEVELOPING ULVL DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
BECMG CLOSED...HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE COLDER/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS PER
LATEST IR SATL PICS ACRS NORTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
ATTM. THIS DEEPER LAYER LIFT...ALONG WITH SOME LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AS POTENT 5H VORT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTERACTS WITH DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET LATE TODAY...A
WEAK SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES WL DEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED TROF
CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST...WL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIEST QPF WITH VERY LIMITED RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. LATEST
NAM12 HAS TOTAL STORM QPF OF 0.33" FROM 1V4 TO VSF...WHILE THE
GFS IS AROUND 0.20...AND THE LOCAL 4KM WRF IS BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75"
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...18Z RUNS OF THE
NAM12/GFS HAD BTWN 0.40" AND 0.60" OF QPF ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...WITH UP TO A 0.25" ACRS THE CPV. FEEL
THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PWS AROUND 0.35" AND SFC DWPTS STILL AT OR BLW 0F. SOME MOISTURE
WL BE LOST TRYING TO SATURATE THE LLVLS. HOWEVER...I LIKE THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF`S IDEA OF QPF ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS BASED ON SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLW AND LESSER AMOUNTS
ACRS DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AREAS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER
VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES. FEEL SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...BUFKIT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME 850MB TO 500MB UVVS...WITH GOOD SFC TO 600MB
RH...IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHICH WL HELP TO
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THINKING RATIOS WL BE 25 TO 1 OR SO...WHICH COMBINED WITH QPF
BTWN 0.15 TO 0.30 WL PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS. WL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT...SOME LESSER AMOUNTS WL OCCUR ACRS THE SE
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES.
ELSEWHERE...2 TO 4 INCHES WL FALL ACRS THE DACKS...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ACRS THE CPV/SLV BY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACRS THE SE DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS. PROGGED 85H
AND 925H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C AND -8C TODAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WL
LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M/U TEENS MTNS TO L/M
20S VALLEYS. INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE EXPECTED AT MSS
TODAY...WITH NE DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED DOWN THE SLV. CRNT MAVMSS
HAS TEMP OF +11F...BUT CRNT OBS SHOWS MSS ONLY AT +3F WITH NEAR
0F AT MONTREAL...THEREFORE WL CUT COOLEST MAV TEMPS BY 4 TO 6
DEGREES AT MSS...THINKING AROUND 15F. TONIGHT...CLOUDS/PRECIP WL
CONT AND TEMPS WL REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS CONTS ACRS
OUR FA...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
EMBEDDED 5H VORTS AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLW ON NW WINDS...WL CONT
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ELSEWHERE A TRACE TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -12C AND -14C ON MONDAY WITH
THE COLDEST 925MB TEMPS OF -10C ACRS THE DACKS/SLV. BASED ON
DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NW WINDS...WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U10S SLK TO
L/M 20S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...FEEL GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM BASED ON
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS THE NE CONUS AND
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BASED ON 1000-500MB RH FIELDS AND SFC TO
850MB UPSLOPE FLW...WL CONT TO MENTION SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASES AND FLW WEAKENS...THEREFORE
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLVL CAA CONTS WITH 925MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -19C ACRS THE SLV BY 18Z TUES...WHICH COMBINED
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 510 SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN
THE TEENS AND L20S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EST SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING WITH REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IMPACTING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AN
EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
SKIRTING THE US/CA BORDER. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS WERE MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THIS MORNINGS 12Z RUN...MEANWHILE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. NONETHELESS...SEEMS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN SATURDAY WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR AVIATION PURPOSES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND FCATS BECOMING VFR. SECOND AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW THOUGH IS PUSHING NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHSN TO KSLK AND KMSS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NW OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WITH CIGS VSBY MAINLY
MVFR AND LOCALLY DOWN TO IFR AT KSLK/KMSS/KMPV THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THEN
AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181751
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1251 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT BY TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1221 PM EST SUNDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO DROP POPS
A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN
THAT AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECMG CUTOFF AS
STG 140 KNT JET ROUNDS TROF BASE. IN ADDITION...STG 850-700MB WAA
AND DEVELOPING ULVL DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
BECMG CLOSED...HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE COLDER/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS PER
LATEST IR SATL PICS ACRS NORTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
ATTM. THIS DEEPER LAYER LIFT...ALONG WITH SOME LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AS POTENT 5H VORT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTERACTS WITH DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET LATE TODAY...A
WEAK SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES WL DEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED TROF
CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST...WL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIEST QPF WITH VERY LIMITED RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. LATEST
NAM12 HAS TOTAL STORM QPF OF 0.33" FROM 1V4 TO VSF...WHILE THE
GFS IS AROUND 0.20...AND THE LOCAL 4KM WRF IS BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75"
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...18Z RUNS OF THE
NAM12/GFS HAD BTWN 0.40" AND 0.60" OF QPF ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...WITH UP TO A 0.25" ACRS THE CPV. FEEL
THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PWS AROUND 0.35" AND SFC DWPTS STILL AT OR BLW 0F. SOME MOISTURE
WL BE LOST TRYING TO SATURATE THE LLVLS. HOWEVER...I LIKE THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF`S IDEA OF QPF ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS BASED ON SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLW AND LESSER AMOUNTS
ACRS DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AREAS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER
VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES. FEEL SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...BUFKIT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME 850MB TO 500MB UVVS...WITH GOOD SFC TO 600MB
RH...IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHICH WL HELP TO
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THINKING RATIOS WL BE 25 TO 1 OR SO...WHICH COMBINED WITH QPF
BTWN 0.15 TO 0.30 WL PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS. WL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT...SOME LESSER AMOUNTS WL OCCUR ACRS THE SE
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES.
ELSEWHERE...2 TO 4 INCHES WL FALL ACRS THE DACKS...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ACRS THE CPV/SLV BY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACRS THE SE DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS. PROGGED 85H
AND 925H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C AND -8C TODAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WL
LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M/U TEENS MTNS TO L/M
20S VALLEYS. INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE EXPECTED AT MSS
TODAY...WITH NE DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED DOWN THE SLV. CRNT MAVMSS
HAS TEMP OF +11F...BUT CRNT OBS SHOWS MSS ONLY AT +3F WITH NEAR
0F AT MONTREAL...THEREFORE WL CUT COOLEST MAV TEMPS BY 4 TO 6
DEGREES AT MSS...THINKING AROUND 15F. TONIGHT...CLOUDS/PRECIP WL
CONT AND TEMPS WL REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS CONTS ACRS
OUR FA...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
EMBEDDED 5H VORTS AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLW ON NW WINDS...WL CONT
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ELSEWHERE A TRACE TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -12C AND -14C ON MONDAY WITH
THE COLDEST 925MB TEMPS OF -10C ACRS THE DACKS/SLV. BASED ON
DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NW WINDS...WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U10S SLK TO
L/M 20S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...FEEL GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM BASED ON
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS THE NE CONUS AND
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BASED ON 1000-500MB RH FIELDS AND SFC TO
850MB UPSLOPE FLW...WL CONT TO MENTION SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASES AND FLW WEAKENS...THEREFORE
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLVL CAA CONTS WITH 925MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -19C ACRS THE SLV BY 18Z TUES...WHICH COMBINED
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 510 SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN
THE TEENS AND L20S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...STILL NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD LEND FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR AVIATION PURPOSES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND FCATS BECOMING VFR. SECOND AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW THOUGH IS PUSHING NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHSN TO KSLK AND KMSS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NW OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WITH CIGS VSBY MAINLY
MVFR AND LOCALLY DOWN TO IFR AT KSLK/KMSS/KMPV THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THEN
AGAIN 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181727
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT BY TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1221 PM EST SUNDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO DROP POPS
A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN
THAT AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECMG CUTOFF AS
STG 140 KNT JET ROUNDS TROF BASE. IN ADDITION...STG 850-700MB WAA
AND DEVELOPING ULVL DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
BECMG CLOSED...HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE COLDER/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS PER
LATEST IR SATL PICS ACRS NORTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
ATTM. THIS DEEPER LAYER LIFT...ALONG WITH SOME LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AS POTENT 5H VORT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTERACTS WITH DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET LATE TODAY...A
WEAK SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES WL DEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED TROF
CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST...WL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIEST QPF WITH VERY LIMITED RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. LATEST
NAM12 HAS TOTAL STORM QPF OF 0.33" FROM 1V4 TO VSF...WHILE THE
GFS IS AROUND 0.20...AND THE LOCAL 4KM WRF IS BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75"
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...18Z RUNS OF THE
NAM12/GFS HAD BTWN 0.40" AND 0.60" OF QPF ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...WITH UP TO A 0.25" ACRS THE CPV. FEEL
THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PWS AROUND 0.35" AND SFC DWPTS STILL AT OR BLW 0F. SOME MOISTURE
WL BE LOST TRYING TO SATURATE THE LLVLS. HOWEVER...I LIKE THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF`S IDEA OF QPF ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS BASED ON SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLW AND LESSER AMOUNTS
ACRS DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AREAS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER
VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES. FEEL SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...BUFKIT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME 850MB TO 500MB UVVS...WITH GOOD SFC TO 600MB
RH...IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHICH WL HELP TO
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THINKING RATIOS WL BE 25 TO 1 OR SO...WHICH COMBINED WITH QPF
BTWN 0.15 TO 0.30 WL PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS. WL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT...SOME LESSER AMOUNTS WL OCCUR ACRS THE SE
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES.
ELSEWHERE...2 TO 4 INCHES WL FALL ACRS THE DACKS...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ACRS THE CPV/SLV BY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ACRS THE SE DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS. PROGGED 85H
AND 925H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C AND -8C TODAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WL
LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M/U TEENS MTNS TO L/M
20S VALLEYS. INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE EXPECTED AT MSS
TODAY...WITH NE DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED DOWN THE SLV. CRNT MAVMSS
HAS TEMP OF +11F...BUT CRNT OBS SHOWS MSS ONLY AT +3F WITH NEAR
0F AT MONTREAL...THEREFORE WL CUT COOLEST MAV TEMPS BY 4 TO 6
DEGREES AT MSS...THINKING AROUND 15F. TONIGHT...CLOUDS/PRECIP WL
CONT AND TEMPS WL REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS CONTS ACRS
OUR FA...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
EMBEDDED 5H VORTS AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLW ON NW WINDS...WL CONT
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ELSEWHERE A TRACE TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -12C AND -14C ON MONDAY WITH
THE COLDEST 925MB TEMPS OF -10C ACRS THE DACKS/SLV. BASED ON
DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NW WINDS...WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U10S SLK TO
L/M 20S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...FEEL GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM BASED ON
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS THE NE CONUS AND
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BASED ON 1000-500MB RH FIELDS AND SFC TO
850MB UPSLOPE FLW...WL CONT TO MENTION SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASES AND FLW WEAKENS...THEREFORE
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLVL CAA CONTS WITH 925MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -19C ACRS THE SLV BY 18Z TUES...WHICH COMBINED
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 510 SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN
THE TEENS AND L20S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...STILL NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD LEND FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN VERMONT
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.
SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND AS A RESULT...
CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z ACROSS ALL
AREAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH KMSS
REMAINING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SLOW TI MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THUS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
ON THURS...WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NO LARGE
IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/DUMONT
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181154
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL TRACK
EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT BY TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECMG CUTOFF AS
STG 140 KNT JET ROUNDS TROF BASE. IN ADDITION...STG 850-700MB WAA
AND DEVELOPING ULVL DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
BECMG CLOSED...HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE COLDER/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS PER
LATEST IR SATL PICS ACRS NORTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NY ATTM.
THIS DEEPER LAYER LIFT...ALONG WITH SOME LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE...WL
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES
ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...AS POTENT 5H VORT
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTERACTS WITH DEPARTING RRQ
OF 25H JET LATE TODAY...A WEAK SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED TROF CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST...WL ADVECT
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIEST QPF WITH VERY LIMITED RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. LATEST
NAM12 HAS TOTAL STORM QPF OF 0.33" FROM 1V4 TO VSF...WHILE THE GFS
IS AROUND 0.20...AND THE LOCAL 4KM WRF IS BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75" ACRS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...18Z RUNS OF THE
NAM12/GFS HAD BTWN 0.40" AND 0.60" OF QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT ZNS...WITH UP TO A 0.25" ACRS THE CPV. FEEL THIS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE BASED ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWS AROUND
0.35" AND SFC DWPTS STILL AT OR BLW 0F. SOME MOISTURE WL BE LOST
TRYING TO SATURATE THE LLVLS. HOWEVER...I LIKE THE LOCAL 4KM
WRF`S IDEA OF QPF ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MTNS BASED ON SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLW AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACRS DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS AREAS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES. FEEL SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
FURTHERMORE...BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME 850MB TO 500MB
UVVS...WITH GOOD SFC TO 600MB RH...IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THINKING RATIOS WL BE 25 TO 1 OR SO...WHICH COMBINED WITH QPF BTWN
0.15 TO 0.30 WL PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS. WL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT OF 2 TO 6 INCHES BY LATE
TONIGHT...SOME LESSER AMOUNTS WL OCCUR ACRS THE SE DOWNSLOPING
REGIONS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...2 TO 4
INCHES WL FALL ACRS THE DACKS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACRS THE
CPV/SLV BY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SE
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS. PROGGED 85H AND 925H TEMPS
WARM BTWN -6C AND -8C TODAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WL LIMIT MIXING
AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M/U TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE EXPECTED AT MSS TODAY...WITH NE DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED DOWN THE SLV. CRNT MAVMSS HAS TEMP OF +11F...BUT
CRNT OBS SHOWS MSS ONLY AT +3F WITH NEAR 0F AT
MONTREAL...THEREFORE WL CUT COOLEST MAV TEMPS BY 4 TO 6 DEGREES AT
MSS...THINKING AROUND 15F. TONIGHT...CLOUDS/PRECIP WL CONT AND
TEMPS WL REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS CONTS ACRS
OUR FA...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
EMBEDDED 5H VORTS AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLW ON NW WINDS...WL CONT
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ELSEWHERE A TRACE TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -12C AND -14C ON MONDAY WITH
THE COLDEST 925MB TEMPS OF -10C ACRS THE DACKS/SLV. BASED ON
DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NW WINDS...WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U10S SLK TO
L/M 20S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...FEEL GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM BASED ON
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS THE NE CONUS AND
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BASED ON 1000-500MB RH FIELDS AND SFC TO
850MB UPSLOPE FLW...WL CONT TO MENTION SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASES AND FLW WEAKENS...THEREFORE
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLVL CAA CONTS WITH 925MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -19C ACRS THE SLV BY 18Z TUES...WHICH COMBINED
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 510 SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN
THE TEENS AND L20S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...STILL NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD LEND FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN VERMONT
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.
SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND AS A RESULT...
CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z ACROSS ALL
AREAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH KMSS
REMAINING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SLOW TI MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THUS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
ON THURS...WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NO LARGE
IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/DUMONT
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180837
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL TRACK
EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT BY TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECMG CUTOFF AS
STG 140 KNT JET ROUNDS TROF BASE. IN ADDITION...STG 850-700MB WAA
AND DEVELOPING ULVL DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
BECMG CLOSED...HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE COLDER/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS PER
LATEST IR SATL PICS ACRS NORTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NY ATTM.
THIS DEEPER LAYER LIFT...ALONG WITH SOME LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE...WL
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES
ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...AS POTENT 5H VORT
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTERACTS WITH DEPARTING RRQ
OF 25H JET LATE TODAY...A WEAK SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED TROF CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST...WL ADVECT
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIEST QPF WITH VERY LIMITED RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. LATEST
NAM12 HAS TOTAL STORM QPF OF 0.33" FROM 1V4 TO VSF...WHILE THE GFS
IS AROUND 0.20...AND THE LOCAL 4KM WRF IS BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75" ACRS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...18Z RUNS OF THE
NAM12/GFS HAD BTWN 0.40" AND 0.60" OF QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT ZNS...WITH UP TO A 0.25" ACRS THE CPV. FEEL THIS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE BASED ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWS AROUND
0.35" AND SFC DWPTS STILL AT OR BLW 0F. SOME MOISTURE WL BE LOST
TRYING TO SATURATE THE LLVLS. HOWEVER...I LIKE THE LOCAL 4KM
WRF`S IDEA OF QPF ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MTNS BASED ON SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLW AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACRS DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS AREAS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES. FEEL SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
FURTHERMORE...BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME 850MB TO 500MB
UVVS...WITH GOOD SFC TO 600MB RH...IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THINKING RATIOS WL BE 25 TO 1 OR SO...WHICH COMBINED WITH QPF BTWN
0.15 TO 0.30 WL PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS. WL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT OF 2 TO 6 INCHES BY LATE
TONIGHT...SOME LESSER AMOUNTS WL OCCUR ACRS THE SE DOWNSLOPING
REGIONS OF THE UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...2 TO 4
INCHES WL FALL ACRS THE DACKS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACRS THE
CPV/SLV BY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SE
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS. PROGGED 85H AND 925H TEMPS
WARM BTWN -6C AND -8C TODAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WL LIMIT MIXING
AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M/U TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE EXPECTED AT MSS TODAY...WITH NE DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED DOWN THE SLV. CRNT MAVMSS HAS TEMP OF +11F...BUT
CRNT OBS SHOWS MSS ONLY AT +3F WITH NEAR 0F AT
MONTREAL...THEREFORE WL CUT COOLEST MAV TEMPS BY 4 TO 6 DEGREES AT
MSS...THINKING AROUND 15F. TONIGHT...CLOUDS/PRECIP WL CONT AND
TEMPS WL REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS CONTS ACRS
OUR FA...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
EMBEDDED 5H VORTS AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLW ON NW WINDS...WL CONT
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ELSEWHERE A TRACE TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -12C AND -14C ON MONDAY WITH
THE COLDEST 925MB TEMPS OF -10C ACRS THE DACKS/SLV. BASED ON
DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NW WINDS...WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U10S SLK TO
L/M 20S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...FEEL GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM BASED ON
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY WEAKENS ACRS THE NE CONUS AND
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BASED ON 1000-500MB RH FIELDS AND SFC TO
850MB UPSLOPE FLW...WL CONT TO MENTION SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASES AND FLW WEAKENS...THEREFORE
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLVL CAA CONTS WITH 925MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -19C ACRS THE SLV BY 18Z TUES...WHICH COMBINED
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 510 SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN
THE TEENS AND L20S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...STILL NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD LEND FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ENHANCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 00Z AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS...BUT VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT REMAIN NORTHEAST AT KMSS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL BREAK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN ON THURS...WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NO LARGE IMPACTS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/DUMONT
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180553
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST SATURDAY...UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT OUT WITH A FEW
MINOR FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY
UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL GRTLKS RGN. SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMBINED WITH INCRG WAA AND MSTR ADVECTION INTO FA OVRNGHT
WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF SNOW THAT IS NOW OCCURRING OVER WRN
NYS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACRS NRN NY AROUND MIDNITE BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS MOST OF VT INCLUDING CHMPLN VLY. HAVE TRIMMED
POPS PRIOR TO MIDNITE TO REFLECT THIS. NO CHANGE TO LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER MIDNITE...AS LIFT AND DYNAMICS FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN. EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN NE KINGDOM BASED ON
CURRENT READINGS...BUT REST OF TEMPS LOOKED OK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE REGION OVERNIGHT NOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AND WAA CLOUDS
ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND A TRACE TO TWO INCHES IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEREFORE PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK. AFTER MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE
REGION AND CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION...WARMING 850
TEMPS...WILL NOT SEE BIG DROPS IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN WAA REGIME.
WILL HAVE SOME MINS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE NOT YET MADE IT INTO THAT REGION. BUFKIT
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD LIFT AND RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...AND WITH COLD TEMPS SHOULD SEE REALLY FLUFFY SNOW AND
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED QPF AND SOUTH WINDS SNOW
WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET HERE. USED A 20:1 SNOW RATIO ALONG WITH
HPC QPF GUIDANCE. BESIDES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...MINS WILL BE
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND VORT DIGS INTO BASE OF TROF. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST
THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY SLOT
MOVING OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED...THEN JUST FLURRIES. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES
HAVING FOUR TO SIX INCHES. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL FALL OVER 24 HOURS...NOT
TWELVE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO
BASE OF TROF AND SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASED WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH UPPER TROF CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BETTER DYNAMICS. BIGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
POSSIBLE SHIFT OF TROF TO THE WEST...AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND TROF CROSSING THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BASE OF LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS WINDS BECOME NW ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE TO SKY COVER. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL GLANCE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOWS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS THE
MOST ROBUST MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES BY BUT
CERTAINLY WARRANTS CHANCE POP FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ENHANCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 00Z AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS...BUT VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT REMAIN NORTHEAST AT KMSS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL BREAK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN ON THURS...WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NO LARGE IMPACTS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/DUMONT
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180213
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
913 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST SATURDAY...UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT OUT WITH A FEW
MINOR FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY
UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL GRTLKS RGN. SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMBINED WITH INCRG WAA AND MSTR ADVECTION INTO FA OVRNGHT
WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF SNOW THAT IS NOW OCCURRING OVER WRN
NYS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVLEOP ACRS NRN NY AROUND MIDNITE BUT NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS MOST OF VT INCLUDING CHMPLN VLY. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS PRIOR TO MIDNITE TO REFLECT THIS. NO CHANGE TO LIKELY
OR CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER MIDNITE...AS LIFT AND DYNAMICS FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN. EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN NE KINGDOM BASED ON
CURRENT READINGS...BUT REST OF TEMPS LOOKED OK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE REGION OVERNIGHT NOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AND WAA CLOUDS
ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND A TRACE TO TWO INCHES IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEREFORE PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK. AFTER MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE
REGION AND CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION...WARMING 850
TEMPS...WILL NOT SEE BIG DROPS IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN WAA REGIME.
WILL HAVE SOME MINS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE NOT YET MADE IT INTO THAT REGION. BUFKIT
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD LIFT AND RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...AND WITH COLD TEMPS SHOULD SEE REALLY FLUFFY SNOW AND
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED QPF AND SOUTH WINDS SNOW
WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET HERE. USED A 20:1 SNOW RATIO ALONG WITH
HPC QPF GUIDANCE. BESIDES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...MINS WILL BE
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND VORT DIGS INTO BASE OF TROF. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST
THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY SLOT
MOVING OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED...THEN JUST FLURRIES. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES
HAVING FOUR TO SIX INCHES. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL FALL OVER 24 HOURS...NOT
TWELVE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO
BASE OF TROF AND SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASED WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH UPPER TROF CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BETTER DYNAMICS. BIGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
POSSIBLE SHIFT OF TROF TO THE WEST...AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND TROF CROSSING THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BASE OF LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS WINDS BECOME NW ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE TO SKY COVER. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL GLANCE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOWS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS THE
MOST ROBUST MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES BY BUT
CERTAINLY WARRANTS CHANCE POP FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
08Z TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR...VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
CIGS/VSBY WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z TO
12Z. AFTER 12Z MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CIGS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...KMPV TAF REFLECTS THIS WITH LOWEST VIS/CIGS OF ALL TAF
LOCALS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFT 21Z FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING TEMPO RESTRICTIONS.
WNDS WILL WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BEFORE TURNING
SE DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTY WNDS AT KRUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WNDS.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL BREAK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN ON THURS...WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NO LARGE IMPACTS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DUMONT/LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 172333
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT NOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
WAA CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND A TRACE TO
TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEREFORE PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME
GETTING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AFTER MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE
REGION...WARMING 850 TEMPS...WILL NOT SEE BIG DROPS IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT IN WAA REGIME. WILL HAVE SOME MINS BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THICKER CLOUDS HAVE NOT YET MADE IT INTO
THAT REGION. BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD LIFT AND RH IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...AND WITH COLD TEMPS SHOULD SEE
REALLY FLUFFY SNOW AND ENHANCED SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED
QPF AND SOUTH WINDS SNOW WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET HERE. USED A
20:1 SNOW RATIO ALONG WITH HPC QPF GUIDANCE. BESIDES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...MINS WILL BE IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND VORT DIGS INTO BASE OF TROF. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST
THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY SLOT
MOVING OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED...THEN JUST FLURRIES. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES
HAVING FOUR TO SIX INCHES. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL FALL OVER 24 HOURS...NOT
TWELVE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO
BASE OF TROF AND SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASED WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH UPPER TROF CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BETTER DYNAMICS. BIGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
POSSIBLE SHIFT OF TROF TO THE WEST...AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND TROF CROSSING THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BASE OF LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS WINDS BECOME NW ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE TO SKY COVER. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL GLANCE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOWS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS THE
MOST ROBUST MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES BY BUT
CERTAINLY WARRANTS CHANCE POP FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
08Z TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR...VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
CIGS/VSBY WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z TO
12Z. AFTER 12Z MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CIGS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...KMPV TAF REFLECTS THIS WITH LOWEST VIS/CIGS OF ALL TAF
LOCALS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFT 21Z FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING TEMPO RESTRICTIONS.
WNDS WILL WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BEFORE TURNING
SE DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTY WNDS AT KRUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WNDS.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL BREAK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SCT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN ON THURS...WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NO LARGE IMPACTS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DUMONT/LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 172059
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT NOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
WAA CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND A TRACE TO
TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEREFORE PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME
GETTING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AFTER MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE
REGION...WARMING 850 TEMPS...WILL NOT SEE BIG DROPS IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT IN WAA REGIME. WILL HAVE SOME MINS BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THICKER CLOUDS HAVE NOT YET MADE IT INTO
THAT REGION. BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD LIFT AND RH IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...AND WITH COLD TEMPS SHOULD SEE
REALLY FLUFFY SNOW AND ENHANCED SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED
QPF AND SOUTH WINDS SNOW WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET HERE. USED A
20:1 SNOW RATIO ALONG WITH HPC QPF GUIDANCE. BESIDES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...MINS WILL BE IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND VORT DIGS INTO BASE OF TROF. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST
THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY SLOT
MOVING OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED...THEN JUST FLURRIES. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES
HAVING FOUR TO SIX INCHES. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL FALL OVER 24 HOURS...NOT
TWELVE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO
BASE OF TROF AND SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASED WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH UPPER TROF CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BETTER DYNAMICS. BIGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
POSSIBLE SHIFT OF TROF TO THE WEST...AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND TROF CROSSING THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BASE OF LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS WINDS BECOME NW ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE TO SKY COVER. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL GLANCE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOWS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS THE
MOST ROBUST MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES BY BUT
CERTAINLY WARRANTS CHANCE POP FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
AND SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBY WILL
BEGIN VFR AND LOWER TO MVFR FROM 06Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOWEST CIGS/VSBY WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITES SUCH AS
KMPV/KSLK. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY OUT OF THE SW...THEN AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN A BIT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
CHANCE VFR/MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 171917
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
COLD MORNING...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS
TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1101 AM EST SATURDAY...ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE
MORNING WORDING AND UPDATE SKY GRIDS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THRU TONIGHT WL BE CHCS FOR -SN FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP HUDSON BAY VORTEX SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD...AS NEXT POTENT 5H S/W ENERGY DIVES SOUTH ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WL IMPACT FA TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
SNOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER 5H VORT ROTATING AROUND POLAR VORTEX WL
ENHANCE LIFT TODAY ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS TO PRODUCE A MID LVL
CLOUD DECK AND SOME LIGHT SNOW... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES AS 5H VORT DROPS ACRS OUR
NORTHERN FA. MEANWHILE...LLVL WINDS VEER TO THE SW AS SFC HIGH
PRES DEPARTS. THIS LLVL FLW WL HELP TO PUSH LLVL LAKE
MOISTURE/LIFT TWD THE SLV/DACKS TODAY. IN ADDITION... LOCAL 4KM
WRF SHOWS SOME 1000-700MB UVVS...GOOD LLVL SFC CONVERGENCE...AND
SOME PROGGED MODEL REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
DACKS/SLV/NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT...THEREFORE WL MENTION CHC POPS.
ELSEWHERE WL MENTION SCHC OR LESS.
TEMPS TODAY WL BE TRICKY...BASED ON VERY COLD START...PROGGED
CLOUDS...AND DEVELOPING WAA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. ON 1/16/09 WE HAD
A HIGH TEMP OF 9F WITH NORTHERLY WINDS...85H TEMPS AROUND
-24C...AND 925H TEMPS OF -20C...ALONG WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES OF 490DAM. TODAY WE HAVE 925MB TEMPS OF -15C...WITH 85H
TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 510DAM...WHICH
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL RESULT IN HIGHS
AROUND 10F AT SLK/NEK TO L10S MPV/1V4/MVL...TO MID/UPPER 10S FOR
BTV/RUT/MSS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED CRNT GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING BIG
TIME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WL IMPACT HIGHS TODAY. (IE 18Z
MAVBTV HAS LOW OF -3F...AND OUR CRNT TEMP IS -12F AT BTV...ANY
QUESTIONS???) WL TREND TWD COOLER NUMBERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL S/W ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WL DIVE SE
TWD OUR FA...AS SFC LOW PRES CROSSES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
GFS/NAM SHOW 1000-500MB MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACRS OUR FA...ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB WAA LIFT/PVA.
THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW ACRS OUR FA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
OVERALL...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC
FEATURES...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STG 5H
VORT...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE 25H JET WL COMBINED WITH SOME
850-700MB FGEN FORCING TO ENHANCE FAVORABLE LIFT ACRS OUR CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WL MENTION CAT POPS TONIGHT... WITH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 2" POSSIBLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BUFKIT CROSS SECTION SHOW GOOD UVVS BTWN
900-750MB...ALONG WITH GOOD RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL...BASED ON FLUFF
FACTOR. GIVEN...THERMAL PROFILE AND MOISTURE/LIFT
PARAMETERS...THINKING SNOW RATIOS WL BE AROUND 30 TO 1.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NITES...BASED ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP...THINKING SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR SLK/NEK TO
L/M 10S BTV/RUT/MSS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN ACRS
OUR FA...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE SNE COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN...THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS
IS TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY...GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE ACRS OUR FA...WL CONT TO MENTION CAT POPS...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WL USE A MODEL BLEND FOR QPF...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A .10 TO .20" OF TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT...WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 2" AND 6". THINKING BTWN 1-3"
SLV/CPV...WITH 2-5" ACRS THE DACKS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
MTNS...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...850-300MB DRY SLOT WL ADVECT INTO OUR FA ON SUNDAY
AFTN...AND THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MORE 5H S/W
ENERGY ROUNDS THE DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ENHANCES SFC LOW PRES NEAR THE BENCHMARK. THIS ENERGY
ALONG WITH INCREASED 850-500MB MOISTURE/LIFT WL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN...EXPECTED SFC DEVELOPMENT...POSITIVELY
TILTED 5H/7H TROF AND NO CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION...FEEL
BEST MOISTURE/LIFT AND ASSOCIATED QPF WL BE EAST OF OUR FA.
HOWEVER...ANY SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROF DEVELOPMENT AND SFC LOW
PRES TRACK...WOULD PLACE OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS...IN REGION OF
FAVORABLE QPF WITH SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
GIVEN EXPECTED TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF QPF ATTM...WITH MENTION
LIKELY POPS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
GIVEN...LONG DURATION EVENT WITH TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS PROVIDING FA
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER WX ADVISORY ATTM.
WL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BASE OF LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS
WINDS BECOME NW ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE TO SKY COVER. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL GLANCE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOWS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS THE
MOST ROBUST MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES BY BUT
CERTAINLY WARRANTS CHANCE POP FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
AND SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBY WILL
BEGIN VFR AND LOWER TO MVFR FROM 06Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LOWEST CIGS/VSBY WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITES SUCH AS
KMPV/KSLK. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY OUT OF THE SW...THEN AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN A BIT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
CHANCE VFR/MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
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