000
FXUS61 KBOX 201540
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES WAS NOW EAST OF NANTUCKET AND IT WILL BE
ABSORBED LATER THIS MORNING INTO LARGER OCEAN LOW PRES E OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE USA WED STARTS A SMALL
WARMING TREND HERE THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY ALONG A SAGGING ARCTIC FRONT BOUNDARY BEFORE
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM ALY AND
CHH INDICATE LOTS OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NNE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME
MORE EXTENSIVE. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS CAPE ANN AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS FROM KBOX 88D AND FAA RADAR IN S.WEYMOUTH INDICATE SNOW
SHOWERS FORMING JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE ANN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MOIST UNSTABLE CAA NLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WDSPRD SNOW SHOWERS FOR CAPE
COD AND ACK TONIGHT. BL WIND TRAJECTORY MAY FORCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
COMPONENT FOR A SHORT TIME AND CAN SEE BANDS OF .5 TO 1.5 INCHES. DAY
SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO MORE ACCURATELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND
REEVALUATE THE ACCUMULATIVE POTENTIAL.
WED...LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY...BUT COLD. MIXG IS LIMITED. PREV KBOX
FCST TEMPS LOOKED MORE ACCURATE THAN THE NEW 00Z/20 AVBL MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND.
ANTICIPATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THU AND FRI. EXPECT QUITE A LOT OF
SUN ON THU BUT THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA ON FRI DUE TO OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRES
HEADING E ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG
THE ARCTIC FRONT ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MOVING IT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PCPN FOR
SNE. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DID SHOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND
WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDING S TO AT LEAST CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON
FRI...WE ARE A LITTLE WARY THAT SURFACE LOW PRES MIGHT END UP A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ROBUST DOME OF
ARCTIC AIR AND HAS PLENTY OF SNOW COVER UNDERNEATH TO INHIBIT
MODERATION. THUS...HAVE PUT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW NH ZONES
AND SLGT CHANCE ELSW FOR FRI NIGHT.
AS CLIPPER SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
DEEPENS...THE DOOR OPENS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR.
BELIEVE MEX GUIDANCE...INFLUENCED BY CLIMO...MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
AND DROPPED TEMPS SOME FOR SAT. SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUN.
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS OR NEAR SNE COAST FOR
START OF NEXT WEEK. THAT LEAVES OUR AREA OPEN TO ANY WAVES ALONG IT.
FOR NOW HAVE STAYED DRY...NO CHANCE POPS...THROUGH MON.
ALTHOUGH A LONG WAYS AWAY...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD A
POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXITS
THE SW PLAINS...DRAWS IN GULF MOISTURE...AND THEN LIKELY REDEVELOPS
ALONG MID ATLC COAST JUST S OF ARCTIC AIR DOME. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN
WITH GFS SEEMINGLY THE FASTEST RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 13Z SCT MVFR CIGS/LIFR CONDS IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG/STRATUS.
OTRW VFR CIGS TRYING TO CLEAR FROM SSW TO NNE THIS MORNING AS PER SAT
IMAGERY.
TODAY...DAYLIGHT HOURS...FCST GENERALLY VFR. THE EXCEPT MAY BE
HYA/FMH AND ACK WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE ON CIGS IS AVG
OR BELOW AVG DUE TO MY LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TSEC RH FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM.
TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS HYA ACK AND FMH.
POTENTIAL PLOWABLE 1 TO 1.5 INCH SNOW AND ASSTD IFR CONDS.
WED...VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR FRI NIGHT ACROSS SW
NH. NW WINDS SAT MAY PRODUCE LOW LEVEL MECHANCIAL TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING 15Z...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
DID NOT POST AN SCA FOR RI SOUND DUE TO UNCERTAIN DATA AT MVY
COASTAL OBSERVATORY AND NO RECENT MAREPS. WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THESE WATERS FOR INCOMING SWELL.
OTRW CONVERTED THE SCA FOR SEAS TO A STRAIGHT SCA AS GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 25 KTS LATE TODAY TO THE S AND E OF ACK.
COULDNT GET THE NAM MXG HT AND GFS RUC GUST TOOL TO GENERATE A GALE
AND HAD NO OTHER FCST INFORMATION STATING A GALE. SO WHILE A GALE STILL
POSSIBLE...BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY SOLN IS A STRONG NLY CAA SCA
TONIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FCST AS A LIKELY ELEMENT.
WED AFTN...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY EASE.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND CLIPPER LOW AS IT HEADS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT AND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT.
MAY SEE NW GALE ON AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS SAT AS WELL AS A RETURN
TO WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONTOOCOOK RIVER PETERBOROUGH NH AND MAYNARD CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLE ICE JAM...BUT RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STATE...THUS NO
ACTION ATTM.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NOCERA - UPDATED 1040 AM
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DRAG/THOMPSON
MARINE...DRAG/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA - UPDATED 1040 AM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200917
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES WAS NOW EAST OF NANTUCKET AND IT WILL BE
ABSORBED LATER THIS MORNING INTO LARGER OCEAN LOW PRES E OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE USA WED STARTS A SMALL
WARMING TREND HERE THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY ALONG A SAGGING ARCTIC FRONT BOUNDARY BEFORE
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS FROM LAST NIGHTS WEAK SFC LOW NEAR 44008 IS TRYING
TO CLEAR FROM SSW TO NNE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CAROLINAS OCEAN
GALE SENDS ITS CIRRUS SHIELD OVERHEAD THIS AFTN. MWN WB AT 3AM IS
NEAR 0. THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN WE ARE FCSTG. THIS
FCST IS A BLEND OF THE 00Z/20 NAM AND GFS MOS TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN OUR PREV KBOX FCST.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TEMP AND SKY COVER FCST IS BELOW AVG. MORE
SUNSHINE THAT FCST WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPS.
ALSO...SPS IS POSTED FOR PATCHY FRZG FOG AND LAST MINUTE 6AM RADIATION
CLEARING CAUSING ICING OF CURRENTLY TREATED AND WET SFCS IN RI AND SE
MASS. CONFIDENCE IS AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MOIST UNSTABLE CAA NLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WDSPRD SNOW SHOWERS FOR CAPE
COD AND ACK TONIGHT. BL WIND TRAJECTORY MAY FORCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
COMPONENT FOR A SHORT TIME AND CAN SEE BANDS OF .5 TO 1.5 INCHES. DAY
SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO MORE ACCURATELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND
REEVALUATE THE ACCUMULATIVE POTENTIAL.
WED...LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY...BUT COLD. MIXG IS LIMITED. PREV KBOX
FCST TEMPS LOOKED MORE ACCURATE THAN THE NEW 00Z/20 AVBL MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND.
ANTICIPATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THU AND FRI. EXPECT QUITE A LOT OF
SUN ON THU BUT THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA ON FRI DUE TO OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRES
HEADING E ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG
THE ARCTIC FRONT ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MOVING IT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PCPN FOR
SNE. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DID SHOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND
WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDING S TO AT LEAST CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON
FRI...WE ARE A LITTLE WARY THAT SURFACE LOW PRES MIGHT END UP A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ROBUST DOME OF
ARCTIC AIR AND HAS PLENTY OF SNOW COVER UNDERNEATH TO INHIBIT
MODERATION. THUS...HAVE PUT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW NH ZONES
AND SLGT CHANCE ELSW FOR FRI NIGHT.
AS CLIPPER SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
DEEPENS...THE DOOR OPENS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR.
BELIEVE MEX GUIDANCE...INFLUENCED BY CLIMO...MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH
AND DROPPED TEMPS SOME FOR SAT. SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUN.
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS OR NEAR SNE COAST FOR
START OF NEXT WEEK. THAT LEAVES OUR AREA OPEN TO ANY WAVES ALONG IT.
FOR NOW HAVE STAYED DRY...NO CHANCE POPS...THROUGH MON.
ALTHOUGH A LONG WAYS AWAY...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD A
POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXITS
THE SW PLAINS...DRAWS IN GULF MOISTURE...AND THEN LIKELY REDEVELOPS
ALONG MID ATLC COAST JUST S OF ARCTIC AIR DOME. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN
WITH GFS SEEMINGLY THE FASTEST RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 13Z SCT MVFR CIGS/LIFR CONDS IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG/STRATUS.
OTRW VFR CIGS TRYING TO CLEAR FROM SSW TO NNE THIS MORNING AS PER SAT
IMAGERY.
TODAY...DAYLIGHT HOURS...FCST GENERALLY VFR. THE EXCEPT MAY BE
HYA/FMH AND ACK WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE ON CIGS IS AVG
OR BELOW AVG DUE TO MY LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TSEC RH FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM.
TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS HYA ACK AND FMH.
POTENTIAL PLOWABLE 1 TO 1.5 INCH SNOW AND ASSTD IFR CONDS.
WED...VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR FRI NIGHT ACROSS SW
NH. NW WINDS SAT MAY PRODUCE LOW LEVEL MECHANCIAL TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING 15Z...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
DID NOT POST AN SCA FOR RI SOUND DUE TO UNCERTAIN DATA AT MVY
COASTAL OBSERVATORY AND NO RECENT MAREPS. WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THESE WATERS FOR INCOMING SWELL.
OTRW CONVERTED THE SCA FOR SEAS TO A STRAIGHT SCA AS GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 25 KTS LATE TODAY TO THE S AND E OF ACK.
COULDNT GET THE NAM MXG HT AND GFS RUC GUST TOOL TO GENERATE A GALE
AND HAD NO OTHER FCST INFORMATION STATING A GALE. SO WHILE A GALE STILL
POSSIBLE...BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY SOLN IS A STRONG NLY CAA SCA
TONIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FCST AS A LIKELY ELEMENT.
WED AFTN...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY EASE.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND CLIPPER LOW AS IT HEADS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT AND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT.
MAY SEE NW GALE ON AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS SAT AS WELL AS A RETURN
TO WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONTOOCOOK RIVER PETERBOROUGH NH..SIGNS OF FREEZE UP ICE JAM BUT
STABLE AND SO NO ACTION ATTM.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DRAG/THOMPSON
MARINE...DRAG/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200904
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES WAS NOW EAST OF NANTUCKET AND IT WILL BE
ABSORBED LATER THIS MORNING INTO LARGER OCEAN LOW PRES E OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE USA WED STARTS A SMALL
WARMING TREND HERE THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS FROM LAST NIGHTS WEAK SFC LOW NEAR 44008 IS TRYING
TO CLEAR FROM SSW TO NNE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CAROLINAS OCEAN
GALE SENDS ITS CIRRUS SHIELD OVERHEAD THIS AFTN. MWN WB AT 3AM IS
NEAR 0. THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN WE ARE FCSTG. THIS
FCST IS A BLEND OF THE 00Z/20 NAM AND GFS MOS TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN OUR PREV KBOX FCST.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TEMP AND SKY COVER FCST IS BELOW AVG. MORE
SUNSHINE THAT FCST WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPS.
ALSO...SPS IS POSTED FOR PATCHY FRZG FOG AND LAST MINUTE 6AM RADIATION
CLEARING CAUSING ICING OF CURRENTLY TREATED AND WET SFCS IN RI AND SE
MASS. CONFIDENCE IS AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MOIST UNSTABLE CAA NLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WDSPRD SNOW SHOWERS FOR CAPE
COD AND ACK TONIGHT. BL WIND TRAJECTORY MAY FORCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
COMPONENT FOR A SHORT TIME AND CAN SEE BANDS OF .5 TO 1.5 INCHES. DAY
SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO MORE ACCURATELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND
REEVALUATE THE ACCUMULATIVE POTENTIAL.
WED...LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY...BUT COLD. MIXG IS LIMITED. PREV KBOX
FCST TEMPS LOOKED MORE ACCURATE THAN THE NEW 00Z/20 AVBL MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY BUT WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE MID
30S ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FRIDAY...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT WILL COME
EARLY IN THE DAY DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD...DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO
THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER IT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW OR A COASTAL LOW. ONCE WE
DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW WILL BE...WE CAN NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 13Z SCT MVFR CIGS/LIFR CONDS IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG/STRATUS.
OTRW VFR CIGS TRYING TO CLEAR FROM SSW TO NNE THIS MORNING AS PER SAT
IMAGERY.
TODAY...DAYLIGHT HOURS...FCST GENERALLY VFR. THE EXCEPT MAY BE
HYA/FMH AND ACK WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE ON CIGS IS AVG
OR BELOW AVG DUE TO MY LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TSEC RH FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM.
TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS HYA ACK AND FMH.
POTENTIAL PLOWABLE 1 TO 1.5 INCH SNOW AND ASSTD IFR CONDS.
WED...VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WED NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING 15Z...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
DID NOT POST AN SCA FOR RI SOUND DUE TO UNCERTAIN DATA AT MVY
COASTAL OBSERVATORY AND NO RECENT MAREPS. WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THESE WATERS FOR INCOMING SWELL.
OTRW CONVERTED THE SCA FOR SEAS TO A STRAIGHT SCA AS GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 25 KTS LATE TODAY TO THE S AND E OF ACK.
COULDNT GET THE NAM MXG HT AND GFS RUC GUST TOOL TO GENERATE A GALE
AND HAD NO OTHER FCST INFORMATION STATING A GALE. SO WHILE A GALE STILL
POSSIBLE...BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY SOLN IS A STRONG NLY CAA SCA
TONIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FCST AS A LIKELY ELEMENT.
WED AFTN...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY EASE.
THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO
15-20KTS. SEAS INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE
AGAIN FALLING BELOW 5 FT NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 5-6FT.
SATURDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY RANGING FROM 3-6FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONTOOCOOK RIVER PETERBOROUGH NH..SIGNS OF FREEZE UP ICE JAM BUT
STABLE AND SO NO ACTION ATTM.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG 403
NEAR TERM...DRAG 403
SHORT TERM...DRAG 403
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG 403
MARINE...DRAG/RLG 403
HYDROLOGY...DRAG 403
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200701
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES WAS NOW EAST OF NANTUCKET AND IT WILL BE
ABSORBED LATER THIS MORNING INTO LARGER OCEAN LOW PRES E OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET THIS COMING TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF
THE REGION DRY WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO COASTAL EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
2AM: LOW CENTER HAS REFORMED E OF NANTUCKET AND SNOW SOON TO END FOR
A TIME ON NANTUCKET. SPS HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ICE
REFORMATION ON SNOW DUSTED RI AND SE MASS AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG.
A VERY NICE LA NINA WINTER IN PROGRESS IF YOU LIKE COLD AND SNOW AND
SEEMS LIKE LAST WINTER EXCEPT THE BIG SNOW AXIS SHIFTED MAYBE 120 MI
SOUTH. THESE KIND OF WINTERS CAN BE QUITE SPECIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...
OCEAN LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HOWEVER SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING TROF WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO YIELD DRY WEATHER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE TUE...AS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
YIELD AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST OCEAN LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET TO SPARE THE REGION OF ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND THE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS INTO A GALE CENTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY BUT WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE MID
30S ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FRIDAY...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT WILL COME
EARLY IN THE DAY DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD...DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO
THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER IT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW OR A COASTAL LOW. ONCE WE
DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW WILL BE...WE CAN NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...SCT MVFR CIGS/LIFR CONDS IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG/STRATUS
WITH SNOW ENDING KACK BY 09Z.
TUESDAY...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOIST NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS BOS/PVD/HYA AND ACK WITH
POSSIBLE SCT SHSN. NE WNDS MAY GUSTS TO 35 KT AT HYA AND ACK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OCEAN LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. SCA CONT OUTER WATERS. WNA4 NOT
HANDLING 44013 WH VERY WELL.
TONIGHT...NE GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OCEAN LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 20-25 KT.
VSBY LKLY REDUCED IN SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO 15-20KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO
15-20KTS. SEAS INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE
AGAIN FALLING BELOW 5 FT NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 5-6FT.
SATURDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY RANGING FROM 3-6FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONTOOCOOK RIVER PETERBOROUGH NH..SIGNS OF FREEZE UP ICE JAM BUT
STABLE AND SO NO ACTION ATTM.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG 200 A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 200A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG 200A
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG
HYDROLOGY...DRAG 200A
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200430
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1130 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM HARTFORD TO S OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 11 PM WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY MORNING INTO LARGER OCEAN LOW PRES E OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WEAK LITTLE LOW IS BRINGING BANDS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE
DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION DRY WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO COASTAL EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1125 PM: ONE MORE GRID UPDATE TO BRING CLEARING AND CUT POPS NW 1/2
OF THE FA. APPEARS TO BE A NICE LITTLE BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED OVER
NW WINDHAM COUNTY CT AND NOW E OF ORH AT 0425Z. THIS MAY SURPRISE A
FEW IN THE EARLY MORNING IN BOSTON. THEN IT CLEARS AND BECOMES ICY
WHEREVER IT SNOWED... SPS IS ALREADY POSTED AND WILL REPOST AT 3 AM.
MAY ISSUE WXA FOR BLACK ICE PARTS OF SE MA AND RI AT 4AM TO EXPIRE
AT 7AM...AS AN ALERTING FEATURE.
CONTOOCOOK PETERBOROUGH NH..SIGNS OF FREEZE UP ICE JAM BUT STABLE AND
SO NO ACTION ATTM.
935PM: WEAK LOW PRES FROM POU TO NEAR 44008 WITH WEAK ELY SFC WINDS
FM 40.6 70.5 EWD TO 44008 IS PART OF THE RESPONSE TO THE NICE LITTLE
AREA OF LIFT PASSING THRU SNE...WORKING OVER REMAINS OF THE WEEKEND
DOUBLE DUMP. NO SIG CHANGE TO 815PM ATTM. OUR TEMP/WX FCST MONITOR IS
TEMPO OTS BUT FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES...THIS GOING FCST WILL
SUFFICE. MAY ISSUE AN SPS AT 945PM TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY SLIPPERY CONDS
EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK IN RI AND E MASS AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THIS WEAK
MOIST SNOW ACCUMULATOR AND RADIATION CHILL DEVELOPS AND ICES PAVEMENTS.
STILL NEED TO THINK ON THIS. AS OF ABOUT 9PM...KBOX .1 SNOWFALL.
OTRW A VERY NICE LA NINA WINTER IN PROGRESS IF YOU LIKE COLD AND SNOW
AND SEEMS LIKE LAST WINTER EXCEPT THE BIG SNOW THRESHOLD SHIFTED MAYBE
120 MI SOUTH. THESE KIND OF WINTERS CAN BE QUITE SPECIAL.
815 PM: MINOR UPDATE FOR MORE EMPHASIS ON SNOW OVERNIGHT RI SE MA E
CT. AMTS ARE TO AVG ABOUT 0.8 INCH SE 1/2 WINDHAM COUNTY RI SE MA
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOW GROWTH RI AND SE
MASS. VSBY ALREADY DOWN TO 2 MI IN RI. WE`LL SEE HOW IT EVOLVES.
IT APPEARS TO ME THE 18Z GFS IS BETTER THAN THE NAM OVERALL IN CT RI
AND SE MASS. GFS MAY HAVE HAD TOO MUCH QPF ON THE NRN FRINGE AT 00Z.
IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS QPF AS MY TEMPLATE FOR THE 815 PM UPDATE.
815 PM ALSO SLOWED THE COOLING TRENDS IN TEMPS/DEWS TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
OCEAN LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HOWEVER SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING TROF WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO YIELD DRY WEATHER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE TUE...AS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
YIELD AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST OCEAN LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET TO SPARE THE REGION OF ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND THE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS INTO A GALE CENTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY BUT WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE MID
30S ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FRIDAY...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT WILL COME
EARLY IN THE DAY DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD...DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO
THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER IT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW OR A COASTAL LOW. ONCE WE
DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW WILL BE...WE CAN NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MARGINAL VFR CIGS. SCT MVFR CONDS ACROSS BOS PVD/HYA/FMH
AND ACK IN SNOW. BRF IFR HYA FMH ACK. PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND ASSTD
LIFR INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK OVC CLEARS.
TUESDAY...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOIST NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS BOS/PVD/HYA AND ACK WITH
POSSIBLE SCT SHSN. NE WNDS MAY GUSTS TO 35 KT AT HYA AND ACK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SE SWELLS OF 4-8 FT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY...NE WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OCEAN LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...NE GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OCEAN
LOW PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 20-25
KT. VSBY LKLY REDUCED IN SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO 15-20KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO
15-20KTS. SEAS INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE
AGAIN FALLING BELOW 5 FT NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 5-6FT.
SATURDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY RANGING FROM 3-6FT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG/DRAG 1130P
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NOCERA 1130P
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG 1130P
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200236
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
936 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM POUGHKEEPSIE TO S OF LONG ISLAND AT 9 PM WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY MORNING INTO LARGER OCEAN LOW PRES E OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WEAK LITTLE LOW IS BRINGING BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM
WILL LIKELY PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE REGION DRY WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO COASTAL
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
935PM: WEAK LOW PRES FROM POU TO NEAR 44008 WITH WEAK ELY SFC WINDS
FM 40.6 70.5 EWD TO 44008 IS PART OF THE RESPONSE TO THE NICE LITTLE
AREA OF LIFT PASSING THRU SNE...WORKING OVER REMAINS OF THE WEEKEND
DOUBLE DUMP. NO SIG CHANGE TO 815PM ATTM. OUR TEMP/WX FCST MONITOR IS
TEMPO OTS BUT FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES...THIS GOING FCST WILL
SUFFICE. MAY ISSUE AN SPS AT 945PM TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY SLIPPERY CONDS
EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK IN RI AND E MASS AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THIS WEAK
MOIST SNOW ACCUMULATOR AND RADIATION CHILL DEVELOPS AND ICES PAVEMENTS.
STILL NEED TO THINK ON THIS. AS OF ABOUT 9PM...KBOX .1 SNOWFALL.
OTRW A VERY NICE LA NINA WINTER IN PROGRESS IF YOU LIKE COLD AND SNOW
AND SEEMS LIKE LAST WINTER EXCEPT THE BIG SNOW THRESHOLD SHIFTED MAYBE
120 MI SOUTH. THESE KIND OF WINTERS CAN BE QUITE SPECIAL.
815 PM: MINOR UPDATE FOR MORE EMPHASIS ON SNOW OVERNIGHT RI SE MA E
CT. AMTS ARE TO AVG ABOUT 0.8 INCH SE 1/2 WINDHAM COUNTY RI SE MA
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOW GROWTH RI AND SE
MASS. VSBY ALREADY DOWN TO 2 MI IN RI. WE`LL SEE HOW IT EVOLVES.
IT APPEARS TO ME THE 18Z GFS IS BETTER THAN THE NAM OVERALL IN CT RI
AND SE MASS. GFS MAY HAVE HAD TOO MUCH QPF ON THE NRN FRINGE AT 00Z.
IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS QPF AS MY TEMPLATE FOR THE 815 PM UPDATE.
815 PM ALSO SLOWED THE COOLING TRENDS IN TEMPS/DEWS TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
OCEAN LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HOWEVER SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING TROF WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO YIELD DRY WEATHER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE TUE...AS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
YIELD AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST OCEAN LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET TO SPARE THE REGION OF ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND THE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS INTO A GALE CENTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY BUT WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE MID
30S ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FRIDAY...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT WILL COME
EARLY IN THE DAY DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD...DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO
THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER IT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW OR A COASTAL LOW. ONCE WE
DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW WILL BE...WE CAN NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR WITH LOWEST CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
BDL/PVD/HYA AND ACK IN SNOW. BRF IFR POSSIBLE PVD HYA FMH ACK.
TUESDAY...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOIST NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS BOS/PVD/HYA AND ACK WITH
POSSIBLE SCT SHSN. NE WNDS MAY GUSTS TO 35 KT AT HYA AND ACK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SE SWELLS OF 4-8 FT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY...NE WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OCEAN LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...NE GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OCEAN
LOW PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 20-25
KT. VSBY LKLY REDUCED IN SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO 15-20KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO
15-20KTS. SEAS INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE
AGAIN FALLING BELOW 5 FT NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 5-6FT.
SATURDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY RANGING FROM 3-6FT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NOCERA 935
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200130
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
830 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AN OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF
THE REGION DRY WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO COASTAL EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE FOR MORE EMPHASIS ON SNOW OVERNIGHT RI SE MA E CT. AMTS
ARE TO AVG ABOUT 0.8 INCH SE 1/2 WINDHAM COUNTY RI SE MA CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOW GROWTH RI AND SE MASS. VSBY
ALREADY DOWN TO 2 MI IN RI. WE`LL SEE HOW IT EVOLVES.
IT APPEARS TO ME THE 18Z GFS IS BETTER THAN THE NAM OVERALL IN CT RI
AND SE MASS. GFS MAY HAVE HAD TOO MUCH QPF ON THE NRN FRINGE AT 00Z.
IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS QPF AS MY TEMPLATE FOR THE 815 PM UPDATE.
815 PM ALSO SLOWED THE COOLING TRENDS IN TEMPS/DEWS TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
OCEAN LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HOWEVER SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING TROF WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO YIELD DRY WEATHER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE TUE...AS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
YIELD AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST OCEAN LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET TO SPARE THE REGION OF ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND THE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS INTO A GALE CENTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY BUT WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE MID
30S ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FRIDAY...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT WILL COME
EARLY IN THE DAY DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD...DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO
THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER IT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW OR A COASTAL LOW. ONCE WE
DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW WILL BE...WE CAN NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR WITH LOWEST CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
BDL/PVD/HYA AND ACK IN SNOW. BRF IFR POSSIBLE PVD HYA FMH ACK.
TUESDAY...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOIST NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS BOS/PVD/HYA AND ACK WITH
POSSIBLE SCT SHSN. NE WNDS MAY GUSTS TO 35 KT AT HYA AND ACK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SE SWELLS OF 4-8 FT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY...NE WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OCEAN LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...NE GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OCEAN
LOW PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 20-25
KT. VSBY LKLY REDUCED IN SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO 15-20KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO
15-20KTS. SEAS INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE
AGAIN FALLING BELOW 5 FT NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 5-6FT.
SATURDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY RANGING FROM 3-6FT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NOCERA 830
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG 830
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 192121
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AN OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF
THE REGION DRY WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO COASTAL EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES IS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING MAINLY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA/NORTHERN NJ/NYC AREA/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHWEST CT AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MODEST MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS THE
I95 CORRIDOR IN THIS AREA. 12Z GFS HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH
THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
THE 12Z GFS ALONG WITH ALL OTHER GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE 15Z SREF/
TRAVERSE THIS MESO SCALE SNOW BAND ACROSS CT/RI AND THEN INTO SE MA
THIS EVENING. SO BASICALLY PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW /WITH
EMBEDDED BURST OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE BAND/
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HRS FOR
SOUTHEAST MA. SO FAR NOT MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NYC AREA. 12Z GFS
SUGGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE OUT RUNS MESO
SCALE FORCING...THUS WEAKENING THE SNOW BAND AS IT TRAVERSES
EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A COATING TO AN
INCH...WITH A LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNT SOMEWHERE ALONG
COASTAL RI OR SE MA.
AT 4 PM RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW
IS JUST SOUTH OF WATERBURY CT. SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE
GREATER HARTFORD AREA AROUND 6 PM...AND PROBABLY NOT ANY EARLIER
THAN 7 PM INTO PROVIDENCE /AND MORE LIKELY 8-9 PM/. THEREFORE...SNOW
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING RUSH...WITH SNOW
ARRIVING MAINLY AFTER THE COMMUTE. SNOW WILL EXIT CT LATE THIS
EVENING-TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEN EXIT RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AROUND 4
AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
OCEAN LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HOWEVER SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING TROF WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO YIELD DRY WEATHER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE TUE...AS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
YIELD AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST OCEAN LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET TO SPARE THE REGION OF ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND THE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET AS THE OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS INTO A GALE CENTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY BUT WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE MID
30S ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FRIDAY...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT WILL COME
EARLY IN THE DAY DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD...DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO
THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER IT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW OR A COASTAL LOW. ONCE WE
DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW WILL BE...WE CAN NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR WITH LOWEST CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
BDL/PVD/HYA AND ACK IN SNOW.
TUESDAY...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOIST NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS BOS/PVD/HYA AND ACK WITH
POSSIBLE SCT SHSN. NE WNDS MAY GUSTS TO 35 KT AT HYA AND ACK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SE SWELLS OF 4-8 FT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY...NE WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OCEAN LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...NE GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OCEAN
LOW PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 20-25
KT. VSBY LKLY REDUCED IN SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO 15-20KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO
15-20KTS. SEAS INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE
AGAIN FALLING BELOW 5 FT NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 5-6FT.
SATURDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY RANGING FROM 3-6FT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG - UPDATED 421 PM
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 421 PM
SHORT TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 421 PM
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG - UPDATED 421 PM
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG - UPDATED 421 PM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 192049
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND DEPARTING TROF LAST NIGHT IS PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...YIELDING SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CT AND WESTERN MA AT LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN LONG
WAVE TROF IS ALREADY ENTERING THE MID ATLC STATES. THIS SHORT WAVE
IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE PHL/BWI AND DCA AREAS LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES TO CURRENT DATABASE/FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NOT A BAD MID JAN
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S.
NEW PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN POSTED TO OUR WEB SITE WITH
UPDATED SNOW TOTALS FROM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THERE WAS A CONSIDERABLE
BREAK /SEVERAL HOURS/ IN BETWEEN THE TWO SNOW EVENTS SUN AND MON WE
ARE TREATING THIS AS TWO SEPARATE SNOW EVENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE BRUSHES US WITH SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OF WHATEVER PRECIP THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATES
WILL PROBABLY STAY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THINK THAT SOME WILL
MEASURE...THEREFORE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY BUT WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE MID
30S ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FRIDAY...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT WILL COME
EARLY IN THE DAY DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD...DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO
THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER IT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW OR A COASTAL LOW. ONCE WE
DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW WILL BE...WE CAN NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE
DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE GRIDS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS. PATCHY FOG IN THE INTERIOR WITH IFR VSBYS.
SKIES ARE BREAKING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. THIS
WILL BE THE TREND THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY 00Z TO 06Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FMH-HYA-ACK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS RHODE ISLAND SOUND. WILL ALLOW SCA FOR ANZ250 EXPIRE AT 18Z
AS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH THERE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO 15-20KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO
15-20KTS. SEAS INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE
AGAIN FALLING BELOW 5 FT NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 5-6FT.
SATURDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY RANGING FROM 3-6FT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
BOX WSR-88D RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS LOOKING INTO THE PROBLEM.
WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/RLG
MARINE...EKSTER/RLG
EQUIPMENT...NOCERA/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191610
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1110 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND DEPARTING TROF LAST NIGHT IS PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...YIELDING SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CT AND WESTERN MA AT LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN LONG
WAVE TROF IS ALREADY ENTERING THE MID ATLC STATES. THIS SHORT WAVE
IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE PHL/BWI AND DCA AREAS LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES TO CURRENT DATABASE/FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NOT A BAD MID JAN
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S.
NEW PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN POSTED TO OUR WEB SITE WITH
UPDATED SNOW TOTALS FROM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THERE WAS A CONSIDERABLE
BREAK /SEVERAL HOURS/ IN BETWEEN THE TWO SNOW EVENTS SUN AND MON WE
ARE TREATING THIS AS TWO SEPARATE SNOW EVENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE BRUSHES US WITH SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OF WHATEVER PRECIP THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATES
WILL PROBABLY STAY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THINK THAT SOME WILL
MEASURE...THEREFORE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW BREAKING DOWN MIDWEEK
BUT WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC-HUDSON
BAY. THIS POINTS TO A WARMING TREND OF SORTS WITH TEMPS GETTING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE LINGERING LOW WILL LIMIT THE WARMING AND IN
FACT PUSH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OUR WAY BY THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA TUESDAY BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT WITH THE UPPER TROF AND ITS COLD POOL STILL
OVER NEW YORK...WE WILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF SPINS UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST BUT
MAINLY STAYS OUT TO SEA. THE LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ANY
DEVIATION OF THE TRACK NORTHWEST WOULD BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROF
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY SIGNALING THE RETREAT OF THE TROF. THE FORECAST
BRINGS THESE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY THEN DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES IT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 00Z RUNS SHOW A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ON TIMING OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY AND BRINGS
THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS
HOLDS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THEN MOVES IT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WE PREFER THE MORE STABLE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS
MEANS CLOUDS MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH A NORTHERN
TRACK OF THE LOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY AND COLDER WEATHER IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS. PATCHY FOG IN THE INTERIOR WITH IFR VSBYS.
SKIES ARE BREAKING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. THIS
WILL BE THE TREND THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY 00Z TO 06Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FMH-HYA-ACK.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS RHODE ISLAND SOUND. WILL ALLOW SCA FOR ANZ250 EXPIRE AT 18Z
AS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH THERE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS START TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AND SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MAINLY AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISHING. NORTH WIND GUSTS TUESDAY
NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
OUR INTERNET IS BACK UP AND RUNNING. HOWEVER...OUR RADAR IS DOWN AT
THE MOMENT. A TECHNICAN IS LOOKING INTO THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
ANY INCONVENIENCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ235-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 1109 AM
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
EQUIPMENT...NOCERA - UPDATED 1109 AM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 190905
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SNOW-GENERATING SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TO A CLOSE
EARLY THIS MORNING. A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RECEIVED A GOOD 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT GENERATED THE BOUT OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKING THE SNOW ALONG WITH IT. WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES GOING FOR EASTERNMOST MASSACHUSETTS UNTIL 6 AM.
WE/LL BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER ON
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
TODAY TO LEVELS WE HAVEN/T SEEN IN AWHILE...ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...DID SHAVE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OFF MOST
AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN FRESH SNOWPACK AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC
FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE BRUSHES US WITH SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OF WHATEVER PRECIP THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATES
WILL PROBABLY STAY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THINK THAT SOME WILL
MEASURE...THEREFORE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW BREAKING DOWN MIDWEEK
BUT WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC-HUDSON
BAY. THIS POINTS TO A WARMING TREND OF SORTS WITH TEMPS GETTING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE LINGERING LOW WILL LIMIT THE WARMING AND IN
FACT PUSH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OUR WAY BY THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA TUESDAY BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT WITH THE UPPER TROF AND ITS COLD POOL STILL
OVER NEW YORK...WE WILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF SPINS UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST BUT
MAINLY STAYS OUT TO SEA. THE LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ANY
DEVIATION OF THE TRACK NORTHWEST WOULD BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROF
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY SIGNALING THE RETREAT OF THE TROF. THE FORECAST
BRINGS THESE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY THEN DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES IT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 00Z RUNS SHOW A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ON TIMING OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY AND BRINGS
THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS
HOLDS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THEN MOVES IT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WE PREFER THE MORE STABLE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS
MEANS CLOUDS MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH A NORTHERN
TRACK OF THE LOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY AND COLDER WEATHER IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY ON...IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY 00Z TO 06Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FMH-HYA-ACK.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS RHODE ISLAND SOUND. WILL ALLOW SCA FOR ANZ250 EXPIRE AT 18Z
AS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH THERE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS START TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AND SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MAINLY AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISHING. NORTH WIND GUSTS TUESDAY
NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005>007-013>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ235-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 190859
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SNOW-GENERATING SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TO A CLOSE
EARLY THIS MORNING. A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RECEIVED A GOOD 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT GENERATED THE BOUT OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKING THE SNOW ALONG WITH IT. WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL 5-6AM.
WE/LL BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER ON
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
TODAY TO LEVELS WE HAVEN/T SEEN IN AWHILE...ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...DID SHAVE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OFF MOST
AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN FRESH SNOWPACK AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC
FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE BRUSHES US WITH SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OF WHATEVER PRECIP THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATES
WILL PROBABLY STAY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THINK THAT SOME WILL
MEASURE...THEREFORE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONCENSUS SHOWS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW BREAKING DOWN MIDWEEK
BUT WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC-HUDSON
BAY. THIS POINTS TO A WARMING TREND OF SORTS WITH TEMPS GETTING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE LINGERING LOW WILL LIMIT THE WARMING AND IN
FACT PUSH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OUR WAY BY THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA TUESDAY BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT WITH THE UPPER TROF AND ITS COLD POOL STILL
OVER NEW YORK...WE WILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF SPINS UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST BUT
MAINLY STAYS OUT TO SEA. THE LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ANY
DEVIATION OF THE TRACK NORTHWEST WOULD BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROF
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY SIGNALLING THE RETREAT OF THE TROF. THE FORECAST
BRINGS THESE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY THEN DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES IT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 00Z RUNS SHOW A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ON TIMING OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY AND BRINGS
THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS
HOLDS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THEN MOVES IT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WE PREFER THE MORE STABLE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS
MEANS CLOUDS MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH A NORTHERN
TRACK OF THE LOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY AND COLDER WEATHER IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY ON...IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY 00Z TO 06Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FMH-HYA-ACK.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS RHODE ISLAND SOUND. WILL ALLOW SCA FOR ANZ250 EXPIRE AT 18Z
AS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH THERE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS START TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AND SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MAINLY AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISHING. NORTH WIND GUSTS TUESDAY
NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005>007-013>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ004-012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ235-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 190829
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BEFORE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SNOW-GENERATING SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TO A CLOSE
EARLY THIS MORNING. A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RECEIVED A GOOD 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT GENERATED THE BOUT OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKING THE SNOW ALONG WITH IT. WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL 5-6AM.
WE/LL BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER ON
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
TODAY TO LEVELS WE HAVEN/T SEEN IN AWHILE...ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...DID SHAVE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OFF MOST
AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN FRESH SNOWPACK AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC
FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE BRUSHES US WITH SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OF WHATEVER PRECIP THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATES
WILL PROBABLY STAY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THINK THAT SOME WILL
MEASURE...THEREFORE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ITS PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHEN IT DOES THIS DEPENDS ON WHICH SOLUTION ABOVE VERIFIES. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. THEN
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
MOST LOCATIONS TO THE MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS HAVE TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER THURSDAY AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. OR WE MAY KEEP A QUIET WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...ONE SOLUTION KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS QUIET...
DRY...BUT COLD WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OTHER
SOLUTION HAS A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
40/70 BENCHMARK BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AGAIN...TIME
WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY ON...IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY 00Z TO 06Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...AGAIN MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
-SN.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS RHODE ISLAND SOUND. WILL ALLOW SCA FOR ANZ250 EXPIRE AT 18Z
AS SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH THERE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS. SEAS 4-7FT PARTICULARLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5
FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. MAY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8FT. CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005>007-013>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ004-012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ235-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/RLG
MARINE...EKSTER/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 190546
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1246 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY...BUT
YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK WITH YET
ANOTHER LOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SNOW-GENERATING SYSTEM CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADVISORIES
REMAIN UP UNTIL 4 AM FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HEAVIEST
SNOW AS OF 1230 AM IS FALLING ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOW MOVING INTO WESTERN CT ATTM. IT/S BEEN
A PRETTY AMAZING LAST 24 HOURS WITH TWO SEPARATE BACK TO BACK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRINGING THEIR OWN BOUTS OF PLOWABLE SNOWFALL. IT/S
A PRETTY RARE OCCURRENCE. IN A NUTSHELL...A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR THE EASTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON HOW THE
RADAR RETURNS LOOK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE ANY SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 7 AM. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD MONDAY...ALTH GIVEN THE
RECENT COLD IT WILL FEEL MILD TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SURFACE LOW WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND A FEW MEMBERS OF
THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES BRINGING IT UP NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THE 00Z ECMWF...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...
AND A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE IT OUT TO SEA
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION IS PRETTY
LOW DESPITE THE TIME FRAME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ITS PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHEN IT DOES THIS DEPENDS ON WHICH SOLUTION ABOVE VERIFIES. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. THEN
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
MOST LOCATIONS TO THE MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS HAVE TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER THURSDAY AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. OR WE MAY KEEP A QUIET WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...ONE SOLUTION KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS QUIET...
DRY...BUT COLD WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OTHER
SOLUTION HAS A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
40/70 BENCHMARK BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AGAIN...TIME
WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR LIKELY PERSISTS MOST TERMAINALS OVERNIGHT AS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY AND PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
SOME RAIN AT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS MAY GRADUALLY TRANSISTION TO ALL SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACK/HYA/FMH IN -SN.
TUESDAY...AGAIN MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
-SN.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER SEAS OF 4-7 FT. THUS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR ROUGH SEAS. SNOW AND RAIN OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT
LIMITING VSBY.
MON...
SNOW AND RAIN END AROUND DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVING VSBY. SEAS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN HIGH IN SWELLS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS. SEAS 4-7FT PARTICULARLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5
FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. MAY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8FT. CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ004>007-012>021-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...STRAUSS/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 190208
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
908 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RHODE
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS
MONDAY...BUT YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE LONG LINE OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES GYRE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING TO THE SSE OF LONG ISLAND. LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND GOOD SNOWGROWTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
EXPANDED ADVISORIES WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD...BASICALLY ENCOMAPSSING
EASTERN MASS...RHODE ISLAND...AND NORTHEAST CT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
LOOKS LIKELY IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY SUSTAINABLE BANDING THAT OCCURS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION OVERNIGHT...AND BE PREPARED TO ADJUST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. OVERALL...ANOTHER PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES PROBABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE ANY SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 7 AM. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD MONDAY...ALTH GIVEN THE
RECENT COLD IT WILL FEEL MILD TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SURFACE LOW WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND A FEW MEMBERS OF
THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES BRINGING IT UP NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THE 00Z ECMWF...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...
AND A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE IT OUT TO SEA
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION IS PRETTY
LOW DESPITE THE TIME FRAME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ITS PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHEN IT DOES THIS DEPENDS ON WHICH SOLUTION ABOVE VERIFIES. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. THEN
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
MOST LOCATIONS TO THE MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS HAVE TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER THURSDAY AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. OR WE MAY KEEP A QUIET WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...ONE SOLUTION KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS QUIET...
DRY...BUT COLD WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OTHER
SOLUTION HAS A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
40/70 BENCHMARK BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AGAIN...TIME
WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR LIKELY PERSISTS MOST TERMAINALS OVERNIGHT AS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY AND PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
SOME RAIN AT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS MAY GRADUALLY TRANSISTION TO ALL SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACK/HYA/FMH IN -SN.
TUESDAY...AGAIN MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
-SN.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER SEAS OF 4-7 FT. THUS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR ROUGH SEAS. SNOW AND RAIN OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT
LIMITING VSBY.
MON...
SNOW AND RAIN END AROUND DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVING VSBY. SEAS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN HIGH IN SWELLS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS. SEAS 4-7FT PARTICULARLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5
FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. MAY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8FT. CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...STRAUSS/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182111
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RHODE
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS
MONDAY...BUT YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES. HOWEVER...BY LATE EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL BE
STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLC COAST. THE CULPRIT IS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE TN VLY AT LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW
PRES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...TRACKING CLOSE TO THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4MB IN
THE PAST 3 HRS ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST.
ITS A QUICK SHOT OF QPF OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND
PROGRESSIVE...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON STORM TOTAL
QPF RANGING FROM 0.10 ACROSS NORTHEAST CT-NORTHERN RI THEN INTO THE
GREATER BOSTON AREA. NOT MUCH IF ANY PRECIP NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH QPF OF 0.25 INCHES FROM LITTLE COMPTON RI NORTHEAST TO
PLYMOUTH AND UP TO 0.50 ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH FROM TODAY WILL LINGER. THEREFORE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
TO 1-3 INCHES. HOWEVER ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD
A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL /2-4 INCHES/ IS LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH
OF THE CAPE COD CANAL NORTHWEST TO PLYMOUTH/BRIDGEWATER/ATTLEBORO/TAUNTON/
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTHWEST IN THE I95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY.
THEREFORE WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA.
NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AS THIS ADVISORY MAY HAVE
TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER NORTHWEST AND/OR EASTWARD ACROSS CAPE COD.
PRECIP ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN NC AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. 12Z GFS/NAM AND 15Z SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AROUND 9 PM. BY 1 AM SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN BEGINNING TO EXIT EAST OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 4 AM - 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE ANY SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 7 AM. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD MONDAY...ALTH GIVEN THE
RECENT COLD IT WILL FEEL MILD TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SURFACE LOW WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND A FEW MEMBERS OF
THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES BRINGING IT UP NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THE 00Z ECMWF...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...
AND A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE IT OUT TO SEA
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION IS PRETTY
LOW DESPITE THE TIME FRAME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ITS PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHEN IT DOES THIS DEPENDS ON WHICH SOLUTION ABOVE VERIFIES. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. THEN
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
MOST LOCATIONS TO THE MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 20S ON THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS HAVE TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER THURSDAY AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. OR WE MAY KEEP A QUIET WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...ONE SOLUTION KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS QUIET...
DRY...BUT COLD WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OTHER
SOLUTION HAS A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
40/70 BENCHMARK BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AGAIN...TIME
WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF TODAY...IFR CEILINGS EAST BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO MVFR EXCEPT
CAPE AND ISLANDS AS SNOW AND MIXED SNOW AND RAIN CAPE AND ISLANDS
DEPARTS. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WEST OF KORH.
TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS
IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IFR RAIN SHOWERS
HYA-ACK.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACK/HYA/FMH IN -SN.
TUESDAY...AGAIN MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
-SN.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER SEAS OF 4-7 FT. THUS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR ROUGH SEAS. SNOW AND RAIN OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT
LIMITING VSBY.
MON...
SNOW AND RAIN END AROUND DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVING VSBY. SEAS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN HIGH IN SWELLS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS. SEAS 4-7FT PARTICULARLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH 5
FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. MAY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8FT. CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...STRAUSS/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182058
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RHODE
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS
MONDAY...BUT YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK
WITH YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES. HOWEVER...BY LATE EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL BE
STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLC COAST. THE CULPRIT IS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE TN VLY AT LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW
PRES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...TRACKING CLOSE TO THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4MB IN
THE PAST 3 HRS ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST.
ITS A QUICK SHOT OF QPF OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND
PROGRESSIVE...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON STORM TOTAL
QPF RANGING FROM 0.10 ACROSS NORTHEAST CT-NORTHERN RI THEN INTO THE
GREATER BOSTON AREA. NOT MUCH IF ANY PRECIP NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH QPF OF 0.25 INCHES FROM LITTLE COMPTON RI NORTHEAST TO
PLYMOUTH AND UP TO 0.50 ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH FROM TODAY WILL LINGER. THEREFORE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
TO 1-3 INCHES. HOWEVER ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD
A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL /2-4 INCHES/ IS LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH
OF THE CAPE COD CANAL NORTHWEST TO PLYMOUTH/BRIDGEWATER/ATTLEBORO/TAUNTON/
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTHWEST IN THE I95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY.
THEREFORE WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA.
NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AS THIS ADVISORY MAY HAVE
TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER NORTHWEST AND/OR EASTWARD ACROSS CAPE COD.
PRECIP ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN NC AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. 12Z GFS/NAM AND 15Z SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AROUND 9 PM. BY 1 AM SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN BEGINNING TO EXIT EAST OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 4 AM - 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE ANY SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 7 AM. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD MONDAY...ALTH GIVEN THE
RECENT COLD IT WILL FEEL MILD TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF TODAY...IFR CEILINGS EAST BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO MVFR EXCEPT
CAPE AND ISLANDS AS SNOW AND MIXED SNOW AND RAIN CAPE AND ISLANDS
DEPARTS. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WEST OF KORH.
TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS
IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IFR RAIN SHOWERS
HYA-ACK.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER SEAS OF 4-7 FT. THUS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR ROUGH SEAS. SNOW AND RAIN OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT
LIMITING VSBY.
MON...
SNOW AND RAIN END AROUND DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVING VSBY. SEAS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN HIGH IN SWELLS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS. THURSDAY...WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ235-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER/NOCERA - UPDATED 359 PM
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 359 AM
SHORT TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 359 AM
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA - UPDATED 359 AM
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181932
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COASTAL FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND THE SNOW BAND WAS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE IN INTENSITY AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST OF THE FA. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES EXCEPT LIKELY POPS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
HAVE ALLOWED WSW HEADLINES TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF TODAY...IFR CEILINGS EAST BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO MVFR EXCEPT
CAPE AND ISLANDS AS SNOW AND MIXED SNOW AND RAIN CAPE AND ISLANDS
DEPARTS. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WEST OF KORH.
TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS
IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IFR RAIN SHOWERS
HYA-ACK.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181846
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
146 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COASTAL FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST AS CORE OF PRES FALLS OVER
GULF OF ME AND CONTINUE TO PULL SEAWARD. WITH COASTAL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDDAY
THROUGH COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY...COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND THE BUZZARDS BAY
AREA. THEN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM.
KBOX AND TBOS /FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER FROM S.WEYMOUTH/ RADARS CONTINUE
TO DETECT MESO SCALE SNOW BAND /ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/
FROM NORTHEAST CT INTO NORTHWEST RI AND THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. HI
RES 12Z NAM PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET PEELS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL
ME...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING AS BUZZARDS BAY CMAN
REPORTING NW WIND. SO LOW LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND COASTAL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER NW RI AND THE GREATER BOSTON
AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER JUST EXPECTING FLURRIES INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5-8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THESE MESO SCALE SNOW BANDS.
LESS CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY SNOW YIELDING DOWN TREE LIMBS...AS LATEST DATA
SUGGEST LAYER OF FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AIR IS VERY SHALLOW
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO
HEAVY...EXCEPT IN A NARROW STRIPE ALONG AND NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LACK OF WIND WILL LIMIT DOWN LIMB POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF TODAY...IFR CEILINGS EAST BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO MVFR EXCEPT
CAPE AND ISLANDS AS SNOW AND MIXED SNOW AND RAIN CAPE AND ISLANDS
DEPARTS. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WEST OF KORH.
TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS
IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IFR RAIN SHOWERS
HYA-ACK.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ012-
015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ005-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>004-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181711
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1211 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COASTAL FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST AS CORE OF PRES FALLS OVER
GULF OF ME AND CONTINUE TO PULL SEAWARD. WITH COASTAL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDDAY
THROUGH COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY...COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND THE BUZZARDS BAY
AREA. THEN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM.
KBOX AND TBOS /FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER FROM S.WEYMOUTH/ RADARS CONTINUE
TO DETECT MESO SCALE SNOW BAND /ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/
FROM NORTHEAST CT INTO NORTHWEST RI AND THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. HI
RES 12Z NAM PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET PEELS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL
ME...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING AS BUZZARDS BAY CMAN
REPORTING NW WIND. SO LOW LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND COASTAL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER NW RI AND THE GREATER BOSTON
AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER JUST EXPECTING FLURRIES INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5-8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THESE MESO SCALE SNOW BANDS.
LESS CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY SNOW YIELDING DOWN TREE LIMBS...AS LATEST DATA
SUGGEST LAYER OF FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AIR IS VERY SHALLOW
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO
HEAVY...EXCEPT IN A NARROW STRIPE ALONG AND NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LACK OF WIND WILL LIMIT DOWN LIMB POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE. BOS POSSIBLE MIXES WITH RAIN LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008>011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ012-
015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ005-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>004-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181631
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1131 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COASTAL FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST AS CORE OF PRES FALLS OVER
GULF OF ME AND CONTINUE TO PULL SEAWARD. WITH COASTAL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDDAY
THROUGH COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY...COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND THE BUZZARDS BAY
AREA. THEN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM.
KBOX AND TBOS /FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER FROM S.WEYMOUTH/ RADARS CONTINUE
TO DETECT MESO SCALE SNOW BAND /ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/
FROM NORTHEAST CT INTO NORTHWEST RI AND THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. HI
RES 12Z NAM PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET PEELS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL
ME...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING AS BUZZARDS BAY CMAN
REPORTING NW WIND. SO LOW LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND COASTAL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER NW RI AND THE GREATER BOSTON
AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER JUST EXPECTING FLURRIES INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5-8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THESE MESO SCALE SNOW BANDS.
LESS CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY SNOW YIELDING DOWN TREE LIMBS...AS LATEST DATA
SUGGEST LAYER OF FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AIR IS VERY SHALLOW
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO
HEAVY...EXCEPT IN A NARROW STRIPE ALONG AND NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LACK OF WIND WILL LIMIT DOWN LIMB POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE. BOS POSSIBLE MIXES WITH RAIN LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002-
003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008>011-019>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012-
015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005-
007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>004-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 1131 AM
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181432
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
932 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...WE WILL BE UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CT/MUCH OF RI /INCLUDING PROVIDENCE/ AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MA...INCLUDING BOSTON FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS...MAINLY 5 TO 8
INCHES.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...STRONG COASTAL FRONT SETTING UP ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR WITH 16 DEGS AT LWM AND BED...WHILE 32-33F AT BOS AND BVY.
FARTHER SOUTH MORE OF THE SAME WITH SFZ AT 19F AND TAN 33F. GOOD
INFLOW UP AND OVER THIS BOUNDARY WITH BUOYS REPORTING SE WINDS 25-30
KT. KBOX RADAR SHOWING ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER RI NORTHWARD INTO
WORCESTER HILLS AND THE 495 AND 128 CORRIDORS OF NORTHEAST MA. THIS
COASTAL FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...
AS STRONGEST PRES FALLS SLIDE ENE TO CAPE COD...CAPE COD BAY INTO
CAPE ANN.
TYPICALLY THE ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION WITH COASTAL FRONTS IS ALONG
AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THE CIRCULATION
/AGEOSTROPHIC/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS TILTED TOWARD THE COLD
AIR. SO EXPECTING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I95 FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING 5-8
INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH INCLUDES THE GREATER BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE AREAS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES MUCH OF COASTAL RI...FROM PT
JUDITH WESTWARD TO WESTERLY AND PTS NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...WILL BE
UPGRADING THIS AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...ALONG COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND THE COASTLINE OF
BUZZARDS BAY /EWB/ INTO EASTERN COASTAL RI /NEWPORT-LITTLE COMPTON/...
EXPECTING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /2-4 INCHES/
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL YIELD MOSTLY RAIN.
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AROUND 1 PM ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...
THEN AROUND 4 PM ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE. BOS POSSIBLE MIXES WITH RAIN LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002-
003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008>011-019>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012-
015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005-
007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>004-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181423
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
923 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...WE WILL BE UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CT/MUCH OF RI /INCLUDING PROVIDENCE/ AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MA...INCLUDING BOSTON FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS...MAINLY 5 TO 8
INCHES.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...STRONG COASTAL FRONT SETTING UP ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR WITH 16 DEGS AT LWM AND BED...WHILE 32-33F AT BOS AND BVY.
FARTHER SOUTH MORE OF THE SAME WITH SFZ AT 19F AND TAN 33F. GOOD
INFLOW UP AND OVER THIS BOUNDARY WITH BUOYS REPORTING SE WINDS 25-30
KT. KBOX RADAR SHOWING ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER RI NORTHWARD INTO
WORCESTER HILLS AND THE 495 AND 128 CORRIDORS OF NORTHEAST MA. THIS
COASTAL FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...
AS STRONGEST PRES FALLS SLIDE ENE TO CAPE COD...CAPE COD BAY INTO
CAPE ANN.
TYPICALLY THE ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION WITH COASTAL FRONTS IS ALONG
AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THE CIRCULATION
/AGEOSTROPHIC/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS TILTED TOWARD THE COLD
AIR. SO EXPECTING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I95 FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING 5-8
INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH INCLUDES THE GREATER BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE AREAS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES MUCH OF COASTAL RI...FROM PT
JUDITH WESTWARD TO WESTERLY AND PTS NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...WILL BE
UPGRADING THIS AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...ALONG COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND THE COASTLINE OF
BUZZARDS BAY /EWB/ INTO EASTERN COASTAL RI /NEWPORT-LITTLE COMPTON/...
EXPECTING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /2-4 INCHES/
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL YIELD MOSTLY RAIN.
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AROUND 1 PM ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...
THEN AROUND 4 PM ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE. BOS POSSIBLE MIXES WITH RAIN LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002-
003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008>011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MAZ019>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MAZ013-015>018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ012-
013-015>018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
014-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR RIZ005-
007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>004-006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>004-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 922 AM
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180955
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES WILL OFFER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AN
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS
WELL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OCEAN ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN MASS AND PARTS OF
RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL THAT/S
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN
BY WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS RATHER DISORGANIZED SO IT/S TOUGH TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF SNOWFALL AND EXACT
AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO AND
POSSIBLY AID IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR SOME. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND SCOOTS NORTHWARD
TO VERY CLOSE TO CAPE COD.
HAVE THEREFORE DRAWN UP SNOWFALL GRIDS THAT DEPICT THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF A AFN-ORH-PVD-PYM LINE.
THIS IS WHERE WE THINK 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...WITH AROUND 6
QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASS /AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ INCLUDING HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT/S
THIS AREA WHERE WE CONTINUE A MARGINAL WINTER STORM WARNING. ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...INCLUDING WESTERN MASS AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN CT...THINK A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A MORE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL COASTAL
FRONT SETS UP. AS OF 09Z...THE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED
INLAND...ROUGHLY ALONG A BOS-UUU LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 20S TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...I/M NOT
QUITE SURE THAT THE FRONT PUSHES TOO INCREDIBLY FAR WEST AS LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD AND THE
PRESSURE PATTERN OVER SNE BECOMES MORE BAGGY BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL LIKELY GO TO
RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MIXING SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD-
PROVIDENCE-GROTON LINE...AND WE TOOK THIS INTO ACCT IN THE WX/SNOW
GRIDS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BOS MIXES WITH RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
WHERE THE TEMPS DO WARM UP...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PVD-BOS CORRIDOR AND A GOOD PORTION OF
SE MASS AND RI. IF IT SNOWS HEAVY ENOUGH...SOME LIMB BREAKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD POWER OUTAGES.
SOME CHANGES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER ON TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO GET IT/S ACT
TOGETHER. NOT LATEST SREF PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ARE QUITE LOW...AND THE AXIS PRETTY FAR INLAND. WE THINK THAT THE
AXIS OF MAX SNOWFALL IN THE SREF IS TOO FAR WEST...PROBABLY B/C IT
BRINGS THE SFC WARM AIR TOO FAR WEST. OVERALL...THIS IS CENTRAL NH
AND MAINE/S SNOWSTORM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE. BOS POSSIBLE MIXES WITH RAIN LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ013-
015>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
014-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180908
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES WILL OFFER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AN
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS
WELL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OCEAN ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN MASS AND PARTS OF
RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL THAT/S
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN
BY WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS RATHER DISORGANIZED SO IT/S TOUGH TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF SNOWFALL AND EXACT
AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
AND POSSIBLY AID IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR SOME. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND SCOOTS NORTHWARD
TO VERY CLOSE TO CAPE COD.
HAVE THEREFORE DRAWN UP SNOWFALL GRIDS THAT DEPICT THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF A AFN-ORH-PVD-PYM LINE.
THIS IS WHERE WE THINK 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...WITH AROUND 6
QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASS /AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ INCLUDING HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT/S
THIS AREA WHERE WE CONTINUE A MARGINAL WINTER STORM WARNING. ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...INCLUDING WESTERN MASS AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN CT...THINK A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A MORE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL COASTAL
FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE HEDGING TOWARD A LESS INLAND
SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW FROM CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE
BOSTON-PVD CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CONTAINED TO WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST SOUTH OF BOSTON. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL LIKELY
GO TO RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MIXING SOUTH OF A
MARSHFIELD-PROVIDENCE-GROTON LINE...AND WE TOOK THIS INTO ACCT IN THE
WX/SNOW GRIDS.
WHERE THE TEMPS DO WARM UP...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PVD-BOS CORRIDOR AND A GOOD PORTION OF
SE MASS AND RI. IF IT SNOWS HEAVY ENOUGH...SOME LIMB BREAKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD POWER OUTAGES.
SOME CHANGES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER ON TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO GET IT/S ACT
TOGETHER. NOT LATEST SREF PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ARE QUITE LOW...AND THE AXIS PRETTY FAR INLAND. WE THINK THAT THE
AXIS OF MAX SNOWFALL IN THE SREF IS TOO FAR WEST...PROBABLY B/C IT
BRINGS THE SFC WARM AIR TOO FAR WEST. OVERALL...THIS IS CENTRAL NH
AND MAINE/S SNOWSTORM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ013-
015>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
014-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180855
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FROM CANADA BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES WILL OFFER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AN
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS
WELL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OCEAN ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN MASS AND PARTS OF
RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL THAT/S
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN
BY WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS RATHER DISORGANIZED SO IT/S TOUGH TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF SNOWFALL AND EXACT
AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
AND POSSIBLY AID IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR SOME. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND SCOOTS NORTHWARD
TO VERY CLOSE TO CAPE COD.
HAVE THEREFORE DRAWN UP SNOWFALL GRIDS THAT DEPICT THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF A AFN-ORH-PVD-PYM LINE.
THIS IS WHERE WE THINK 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...WITH AROUND 6
QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASS /AWAY FROM THE
COAST/ INCLUDING HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT/S THIS AREA
WHERE WE CONTINUE A MARGINAL WINTER STORM WARNING. ROUGHLY WEST OF
THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...INCLUDING WESTERN MASS AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN CT...THINK A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A MORE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL COASTAL
FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE HEDGING TOWARD A LESS INLAND
SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW FROM CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE
BOSTON-PVD CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CONTAINED TO WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST SOUTH OF BOSTON. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL LIKELY
GO TO RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MIXING SOUTH OF A
MARSHFIELD-PROVIDENCE-GROTON LINE...AND WE TOOK THIS INTO ACCT IN THE
WX/SNOW GRIDS.
WHERE THE TEMPS DO WARM UP...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PVD-BOS CORRIDOR AND A GOOD PORTION OF
SE MASS AND RI. IF IT SNOWS HEAVY ENOUGH...SOME LIMB BREAKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD POWER OUTAGES.
SOME CHANGES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER ON TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO GET IT/S ACT
TOGETHER. NOT LATEST SREF PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ARE QUITE LOW...AND THE AXIS PRETTY FAR INLAND. WE THINK THAT THE
AXIS OF MAX SNOWFALL IN THE SREF IS TOO FAR WEST...PROBABLY B/C IT
BRINGS THE SFC WARM AIR TOO FAR WEST. OVERALL...THIS IS CENTRAL NH
AND MAINE/S SNOWSTORM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-WEST/TROF EAST FLATTENS AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. SO WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...FROM
FRIGID TO COLD.
CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY WITH UPPER TROF
AXIS TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OUR EASTERN ZON4ES
TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TO MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 850 MB TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND WITH THE TROF
IN POSITION TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
CT VALLEY AND MONADNOCKS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS THE AXIS EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
THE TREND WILL BE TO A LITTLE MORE SUN...WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.
MODEL CONCENSUS IS TOWARD A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ITS APPROACH BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEEK. THE GFS DRAWS
THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DRAW ENERGY FROM A 120 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
EC COLDER AND FAVORING SNOW WHILE THE GFS DRAWS WARMER THICKNESSES
NORTH AND HINTS AT RAIN...THE GFS 1000-500 MB 5400 LINE REACHES THE
MA ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC...AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ECMWF SOLUTION AND GO WITH
SNOW.
THE AXIS OF COLDEST TEMPS IS OVER US WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. 850 MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME ARE -10C TO
-15C...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AT 925 MB ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE
LATTER /THE 925 MB TEMPS/ IS EQUIVILENT TO -17C TO -22C AT 850
MB...WHICH WITH MIXING WOULD SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. A SIMILAR COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY BOS-FMH-HYA-ACK. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
OFFSHORE EAST OF PVC-CQX-ACK. ALSO SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET.
TUESDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY MOST WATERS.
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ007-
013>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>006-
026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180846
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
346 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES WILL OFFER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AN
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS
WELL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OCEAN ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN MASS AND PARTS OF
RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL THAT/S
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN
BY WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS RATHER DISORGANIZED SO IT/S TOUGH TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF SNOWFALL AND EXACT
AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
AND POSSIBLY AID IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR SOME. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND SCOOTS NORTHWARD
TO VERY CLOSE TO CAPE COD.
HAVE THEREFORE DRAWN UP SNOWFALL GRIDS THAT DEPICT THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF A AFN-ORH-PVD-PYM LINE.
THIS IS WHERE WE THINK 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...WITH AROUND 6
QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASS /AWAY FROM THE
COAST/ INCLUDING HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT/S THIS AREA
WHERE WE CONTINUE A MARGINAL WINTER STORM WARNING. ROUGHLY WEST OF
THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...INCLUDING WESTERN MASS AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN CT...THINK A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A MORE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL COASTAL
FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE HEDGING TOWARD A LESS INLAND
SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW FROM CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE
BOSTON-PVD CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CONTAINED TO WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST SOUTH OF BOSTON. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL LIKELY
GO TO RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MIXING SOUTH OF A
MARSHFIELD-PROVIDENCE-GROTON LINE...AND WE TOOK THIS INTO ACCT IN THE
WX/SNOW GRIDS.
WHERE THE TEMPS DO WARM UP...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PVD-BOS CORRIDOR AND A GOOD PORTION OF
SE MASS AND RI. IF IT SNOWS HEAVY ENOUGH...SOME LIMB BREAKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD POWER OUTAGES.
SOME CHANGES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER ON TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO GET IT/S ACT
TOGETHER. NOT LATEST SREF PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ARE QUITE LOW...AND THE AXIS PRETTY FAR INLAND. WE THINK THAT THE
AXIS OF MAX SNOWFALL IN THE SREF IS TOO FAR WEST...PROBABLY B/C IT
BRINGS THE SFC WARM AIR TOO FAR WEST. OVERALL...THIS IS CENTRAL NH
AND MAINE/S SNOWSTORM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GRAZE
EASTERN ZONES WITH MORE LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE THINK THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SE RI AND SE/E MASS. THIS MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO TO WHAT FALLS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE /CAPE AND ISLANDS/ TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY QUIET BUT CHILLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 MOST
LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COLDER.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE INTERIOR TO MID 20S ON THE CAPE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...DEVELOPING IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO RAIN
ACK/MVY/HYA AND SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A GHG-PVD LINE.
TONIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN EARLY ON ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT IFR LIKELY PERSISTS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE DEVELOP MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SEAS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THEREAFTER. FROM 18Z
ONWARD...ONLY WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO
25KTS. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY...REMAINING AT 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 25-30 KTS. SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 8
FT. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KTS DECREASING TO 10-20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
003-008>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ007-
013>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>006-
026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/RLG
MARINE...EKSTER/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180301
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT...THEN A
SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING SUNDAY.
PLOWABLE SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP DURING MONDAY...WHICH MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY BUT
CONTINUED COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
A WARM FRONT SHARPENS UP TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASING ASCENT IN THE COLUMN
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS RI AND SE MASS WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWS
TAKE OVER LATER. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.
WESTERN ZONES MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY DAWN. HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EXPECT STEADY SNOW TO FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER S CENTRAL NH AND N CENTRAL/NE
INTERIOR MA. WITH E-SE WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SECOND LOW
S OF THE ISLANDS...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY SOUTHEAST OF I-95...AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WE
THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SNOW WILL GO OVER TO RAIN ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EVEN MIX AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE SNOW WILL BE QUITE WET AND HEAVY IN AREAS THAT APPROACH
THE FREEZING MARK.
LOOKING AT 4-8 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND 2-5...LOCALLY 6 IN
THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF I-95.
APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND MAINLY DURING AND AFTERNOON
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THE EAST...AND EARLIER IN THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
THEY WILL PASS...THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ON A PATH TO THE NORTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A RECENT OUTLIER SOLUTION SO AM
GOING TO FOCUS ON MORE OF A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THERE
IS A SECOND REGION OF LOW PRESSURE THAT STARTS OFF IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN GETS ABSORBED BY THE STRONGER COASTAL LOW. WITH
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF PREDICTED...ARE
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...ONLY LOOKING AT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES BEYOND WHAT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THEN
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY QUIET BUT CHILLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 MOST
LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COLDER.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE INTERIOR TO MID 20S ON THE CAPE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING SNOW LATE.
SUNDAY...IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACK/MVY/HYA AND POSSIBLY
FOR A TIME AT PVD/EWB. CAPE AND ISLANDS LIKELY TO GO OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN -SN MOST
LOCATIONS AND A POSSIBLE -SN/-RA MIX ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS WILL BACK TO SE OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUT UP SMALL
CRAFT STARTING LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON
THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH LATE IN THE DAY.
SCA FOR MOST MARINE ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES.
OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO
25KTS. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY...REMAINING AT 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 25-30 KTS. SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 8
FT. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KTS DECREASING TO 10-20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MAZ002>006-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ007>021.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/RLG
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/EVT/RLG
MARINE...EKSTER/EVT/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172223
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
525 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT...THEN A
SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING SUNDAY.
PLOWABLE SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP DURING MONDAY...WHICH MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY BUT
CONTINUED COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AFTER THE VERY COLD START THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED TO THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20. HOWEVER...THESE READINGS RAN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. KEPT THIS IN MIND WITH LOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING WITH APPROACH OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. DEWPOINTS ALSO RUNNING BELOW FORECAST...AND
ARE STILL WELL BELOW ZERO EXCEPT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
LIGHT WINDS HAVE BECOME S-SW...SO EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO START TO
RECOVER OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN. NOTE THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER INTO WESTERN NY STATE INTO
NW PA AT 21Z. EVEN IF SNOW APPEARS OVER THE REGION ON RADAR...MAY
TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT SNOW TO
START OVER CT VALLEY REGION BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD
EAST BY 2-3 AM SUNDAY.
MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND SECOND WAVE OFF THE LONG ISLAND COAST BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...ALONG WITH HIGH SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS WITH THIS SYSTEM /ON THE ORDER OF 20:1 RATIOS ESPECIALLY
IN THE WARNING AREA/...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS N OF THE MASS PIKE AND SOUTHERN NH STARTING
AT MIDNIGHT. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND N OF ROUTE 2...THOUGH COULD SNEAK INTO CENTRAL
WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE I-495 BELT OF MIDDLESEX COUNTY. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS OCCUR. FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. APPEARS
MOST PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HAVE GONE WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LOWS
EXPECTED AROUND 03Z OR SO...THEN EITHER REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EXPECT STEADY SNOW TO FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER S CENTRAL NH AND N CENTRAL/NE
INTERIOR MA. WITH E-SE WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SECOND LOW
S OF THE ISLANDS...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ALONG THE SE COAST/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SO WILL SEE A
MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. CONSIDERING HOW COLD THE AIRMASS
HAS BEEN AND HOW THE MODELS HAVE NOT BE HANDLING THIS ASPECT TOO
WELL AS OF LATE...WENT WITH TEMPS SOMEWHAT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEPT TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
WITH TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY...EVEN INLAND...EXPECT
SNOW/RAIN RATIOS TO DECREASE...THOUGH WILL STILL BE A RATHER FLUFFY
SNOW ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM NOTED WAS THE VERY
LOW SREF PROBABILITIES OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOW...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO
HAVE INCREASED SINCE THE EARLY MORNING SHIFT /AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER
NE HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY BY 00Z MONDAY/.
APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER WESTERN AREAS AFTER 21Z AS
THE LOW MOVES NE OF CAPE COD. BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF...EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA AND 3-6
INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OR SO ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...MIGHT SEE A BIT MORE ON THE LOWER CAPE NEAR THE CANAL.
TEMPS...RAN TEMPS COOLER THAN MODELS SUGGESTED...BUT DID BRING UP TO
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND AND THE LOWER-MID 30S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
THEY WILL PASS...THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ON A PATH TO THE NORTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A RECENT OUTLIER SOLUTION SO AM
GOING TO FOCUS ON MORE OF A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THERE
IS A SECOND REGION OF LOW PRESSURE THAT STARTS OFF IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN GETS ABSORBED BY THE STRONGER COASTAL LOW. WITH
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF PREDICTED...ARE
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...ONLY LOOKING AT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES BEYOND WHAT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THEN
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY QUIET BUT CHILLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 MOST
LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COLDER.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE INTERIOR TO MID 20S ON THE CAPE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING SNOW...OVER WESTERN TERMINAL SITES BY 05Z
AND E SITES BY 08Z.
SUNDAY...IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACK/MVY/HYA AND POSSIBLY
FOR A TIME AT PVD/EWB. ACK PROBABLY GOES TO ALL RAIN BY 16Z IF NOT
SOONER. MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER CT VALLEY AFTER 21Z.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN -SN MOST
LOCATIONS AND A POSSIBLE -SN/-RA MIX ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS WILL BACK TO SE OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUT UP SMALL
CRAFT STARTING AROUND 10Z FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON
THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH LATE IN THE DAY.
SCA FOR MOST MARINE ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES.
OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO
25KTS. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY...REMAINING AT 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 25-30 KTS. SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 8
FT. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KTS DECREASING TO 10-20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ002>006-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ007>021.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EVT/RLG
MARINE...EVT/RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172110
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRES IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
REDEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT
A CHANCE FOR PLOWABLE SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAD A VERY...VERY COLD START THIS MORNING. LOWEST TEMP SEEN ON ASOS
THIS MORNING WAS -19 AT ORANGE AND -15 AT CHICOPEE FALLS...WITH COOP
REPORTS DOWN TO -17 AT AMHERST...-19 AT HUDSON NH...-24 AT MARLOW NH
AND -20 AT KEENE.
UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT...MAINLY FOR
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT 15Z...APPEARS THAT TEMPS ARE
RECOVERING QUICKLY...SO KEPT HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID LOWER A LITTLE MORE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO WENT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS FROM THE W AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS RAPIDLY THICKEN THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN SHARPENING UP A WARM FRONT AND WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
INCREASING ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE COLUMN WILL
EVENTUALLY AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT MAY FIRST
START TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS AIR/SST DIFFERENTIALS
MAY ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT IN THE INCREASING S/SE
FLOW. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS BY VERY LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING MOST ZONES AS ASCENT AND SNOW GROWTH IMPROVES A BIT. AT THIS
TIME...WE/RE A BIT UNSURE ON EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE AREA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE ADVISORY SNOWS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE IF COASTAL FRONT ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS...GENERALLY NEAR AND JUST WEST OF I-95. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF MA/RI. MAY
SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX GET AS FAR NW AS I-95...BUT PLAYED IT A TAD BIT
EAST OF THERE FOR THE MOMENT.
IF FRONTOGENESIS/INSTABILITY FIELDS...SNOW GROWTH
PROFILES/RATIOS LOOKED BETTER...MAY HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL MASS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SREF PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
12 HOURS ON SUNDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH UNTIL YOU GET NORTH OF THIS
CWA...BUT DO EXPECT THOSE TO INCREASE A BIT WITH TIME. OFTENTIMES
SREF PROBS FOR SNOW ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
IT/S NOT OUT OF THE REALM THAT A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY IF COASTAL FRONT
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWS IS PEGGED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. SINCE THIS IS MAINLY A 3RD
PERIOD EVENT...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT
DO EXPECT AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO SEE THEM BY
LATER TODAY.
OVERALL...WE CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 3-6 INCH EVENT STARTING LATE
TONIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY...WITH WITH VERY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS LIKELY PORTIONS OF SE MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
THEY WILL PASS...THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ON A PATH TO THE NORTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A RECENT OUTLIER SOLUTION SO AM
GOING TO FOCUS ON MORE OF A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THERE
IS A SECOND REGION OF LOW PRESSURE THAT STARTS OFF IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN GETS ABSORBED BY THE STRONGER COASTAL LOW. WITH
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF PREDICTED...ARE
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...ONLY LOOKING AT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES BEYOND WHAT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THEN
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY QUIET BUT CHILLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 MOST
LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COLDER.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE INTERIOR TO MID 20S ON THE CAPE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR.
TONIGHT...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW DEVELOP MOST TERMINALS
AFTER 08Z.
SUNDAY...IFR IN SNOW. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACK/MVY/HYA AND POSSIBLY
FOR A TIME AT PVD. ACK PROBABLY GOES TO ALL RAIN BY 16Z IF NOT
SOONER.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN -SN MOST
LOCATIONS AND A POSSIBLE -SN/-RA MIX ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE MERRIMACK TO
PLYMOUTH STRETCH...WIND GUSTS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED WITH SEAS DOWN
TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO SW BY EVENING.
TONIGHT..E-SE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA VERY LATE
TONIGHT.
SUNDAY...SCA FOR MOST MARINE ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES.
OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SEAS 5 TO 8
FT.
MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO
15-20KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO
25KTS. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY...REMAINING AT 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 25-30KTS. SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 FT.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 20-25KTS DECREASING TO 10-20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ002>006-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ007>021.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/RLG
MARINE...EKSTER/RLG
| 
